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A Blueprint for Resistance Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=63"><span class="small">Marc Ash, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Wednesday, 16 November 2016 09:40

Ash writes: "Donald Trump is a scoundrel who has seized the power of the Presidency without an electoral majority. With the Oval Office in his hands, both houses of Congress under Republican control, and the Supreme Court almost assuredly lost to right-wing activists for decades to come, resistance movements are the most powerful remedy left. They must be big and determined."

Paris, November 15, 2015: A tug of war erupts between police and protesters over the physical person of a protester at the UN climate conference. (photo: AP)
Paris, November 15, 2015: A tug of war erupts between police and protesters over the physical person of a protester at the UN climate conference. (photo: AP)


A Blueprint for Resistance

By Marc Ash, Reader Supported News

16 November 16

 

he blueprint for resisting the Trump takeover of America and putting social progress back on track has three main points. These are the points of the triangle.

Reshaping the Democratic Party

The disenfranchised American majority needs immediate traction in the nation’s Capitol. Alternative political parties hold exciting potential and in truth are essential to the democratic process, but we have a real live political five-alarm-fire going in Washington, and the Democratic party is best positioned to respond politically.

For the Democratic Party to be of any use to the American people it must be remade, and very quickly. It will not be easy. Many of the longest serving Democratic members of Congress are resigned to the ideology of corporate sponsorship. They may not like it, but they accept it as something they cannot change. We must bring change to them, and we must do it with urgency.

In all likelihood, the biggest factor in Hillary Clinton’s defeat was the DNC’s secretive meddling in the nominating process. It cost them something they absolutely had to have on Election Day, credibility. Most left-leaning voters did in fact vote for Clinton, but it was those who did not turn out who delivered the White House to Donald Trump. They simply lacked the motivation to go vote.

From the perspective of rank and file Democrats, the leader of the Democratic Party is Bernie Sanders. In fact he’s the most popular politician in America. Based on his popularity, his message and his credibility Sanders would in fact likely have defeated Donald Trump.

Rank and file Democrats need to line up squarely behind the movement Sanders is building. There is a pitched battle underway right now to wrest control of the Democratic Party from the corporatists. Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and former Labor secretary Robert Reich are leading it. Rank and file Democrats need to get behind their efforts shoulder-to-shoulder. This sends a message to the party that our leaders are in charge. The ones the voters have chosen. Not ones chosen by party operatives.

Movement Building

Donald Trump is a scoundrel who has seized the power of the Presidency without an electoral majority. With the Oval Office in his hands, both houses of Congress under Republican control, and the Supreme Court almost assuredly lost to right-wing activists for decades to come, resistance movements are the most powerful remedy left. They must be big and determined.

The labor, environmental, and civil rights factions must unite their forces. There must be fundamental cooperation between these groups and aggressive organizing. Would Donald Trump’s attitude improve with all of his hotels shut down by combined labor and environmental protests over deportations and pipeline building? You bet.

The people who control this country at this moment are not the majority. The time has come to make that clear. On this front it is important to act quickly and forcefully. Mr. Trump must face a powerful opposing force the moment he assumes office, even before. It is key to thwarting his plans.

In building movements we must also look to a broader agenda than just derailing Donald Trump. We must be inclusive of the objectives of all the participating community groups. We must be a real platform for labor, the environment, and civil rights. The core of the objectives must always be the core of the movements.

Using Our International Process

The American political left has spent the past forty years building a process of international cooperation, often inclusive of – and in many important ways dependent on – Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs).

The resistance movements we build here must not be confined here. They must be part of a greater international effort to defeat fascist military initiatives wherever they gain traction.

Deep concern and shock over the rise of Donald Trump is not confined to the U.S. Europeans are also reeling from the results of the American election. The time is now to reach out and collaborate with other Western nations and NGOs to organize opposition to policies that threaten humanity. Indeed, there is clear support in Europe for collaboration with America that would oppose the new authoritarian Trump government.

German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier in fact seemed to invite participation, saying: “Just as we Germans learned a lot in the past from our American friends, we should now encourage our American friends to stay true to past partnerships and to us.”

We have an international process; we built it to function in situations exactly like this. We must use our international capacity for organizing. If we do not use it, we will surely lose it.

Prepare to go further.


Marc Ash is the founder and former Executive Director of Truthout, and is now founder and Editor of Reader Supported News.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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What Standing Rock Tells Us About Civil Disobedience Print
Wednesday, 16 November 2016 09:31

Hellmann writes: "The history of social reform in America is inextricably tied to civil disobedience."

Warrior Women praying in front of riot police on the site where DAPL desecrated sacred ground. (photo: Rob Wilson)
Warrior Women praying in front of riot police on the site where DAPL desecrated sacred ground. (photo: Rob Wilson)


What Standing Rock Tells Us About Civil Disobedience

By Melissa Hellmann, YES! Magazine

16 November 16

 

The militarized response to communities of color signals a possible double standard in law enforcement’s acceptance of civil disobedience.

he history of social reform in America is inextricably tied to civil disobedience. Women used it to advocate for their right to vote during the women’s suffrage movement. Civil rights activists held sit-ins and marches to demand the end of discriminatory policies and racial segregation during the 1960s. Just in the last week, marchers shut down streets across the U.S. to protest the election of Donald Trump.

In some cases, acts of civil disobedience—nonviolent violations of the law against a perceived injustice—are met with stern but level reproach from the state. Henry David Thoreau spent a night in jail after refusing to pay six years of back taxes. The Delta 5, who blocked a BNSF railway in 2014 to protest the shipment of fossil fuels, were sentenced to two years probation and acquitted of more serious charges.

It was surprising to many, then, to watch a video of militarized police flanked by armored vehicles bear down on the protesters resisting the controversial $3.7 billion Dakota Access pipeline at the Standing Rock Sioux Reservation in North Dakota in October. Such an aggressive response to peaceful protest raises concerns and questions regarding the state’s tolerance of civil disobedience as a classically American expression of dissent. And many worry those concerns will become all the more real under a Trump presidency and Republican-controlled Congress.

To quell the largely indigenous resistance and protect the pipeline’s economic interests, North Dakota called upon the Emergency Management Assistance Compact, a 1996 program that enables interstate aid during crisis situations. Law enforcement agents from seven states used chemical spray, rubber bullets, and stun guns to forcibly remove protesters. More than 140 people were arrested and camps were destroyed in the sweep.

EMAC, called upon to assist with natural disasters, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and Pres. Obama's 2009 inauguration, was also issued to mollify protesters during the Baltimore, Maryland uprising following the death of Freddie Gray. The prolonged armed standoff at the Malheur Wildlife Refuge in Oregon did not receive this response.

“I think that’s what makes the government and law enforcement’s reaction to the protest really shocking,” notes Candice Delmas, an assistant professor of philosophy and political science at Northeast University who writes extensively on civil disobedience. “[The protesters] undertook the protest in a really acceptable, respectable way, and they’re treated as just thugs and enemies.”

A worthy consideration is whether the protectors, as the protesters refer to themselves, were engaging in acts of civil disobedience or rioting. According to Delmas, they followed all of the tenets traditionally associated with civil disobedience: a nonviolent and collective refusal of governmental demands in exchange for concessions. Riots, on the other hand, are outbursts of collective violence that are usually destructive. The mostly Native American activists had a clear, motivated aim of halting construction of the pipeline and were nonviolent in their approach.

But the distinction is one made in the moment. As was shown in the case of journalist Amy Goodman, who faced an arrest warrant and was subsequently absolved of criminal trespass and rioting charges for her coverage of the DAPL conflicts, the evidence doesn’t always fit the state’s narrative.

“Whenever you have laws [EMAC] that are intended for one purpose used for another—and especially to monitor what very well may be First Amendment-protected activities—that always should give the American public pause,” said Jennifer Cook, policy director of the American Civil Liberties Union of North Dakota. “Greater scrutiny should be used for how law enforcement is using this particular law and whether they should be using it at all for this purpose.”

Painting a protest as a riot is a form of silencing, Delmas said, that shows the government’s unwillingness to engage with activists or view them as political agents with legitimate concerns. “You’re really putting it far on the opposite side of the spectrum from civil disobedience. I think it’s a way of ending the conversation to label it riots,” she said.

The First Amendment protects individual rights to freedom of religion, speech, press, petition, and assembly. But the legal waters are murky at Standing Rock, where protesters were pushed off private property that some argue belonged to the Standing Rock Sioux tribe under the 1851 Treaty of Fort Laramie. Individuals generally don’t have First Amendment rights on others’ private property, according to the First Amendment Center. The Bill of Rights provides individual liberty protection from actions by government officials, but private property, of course, is not government-owned.

“When you get a scenario where you have private land and public land all intermixed and you have such a heavily militarized police force, it’s very hard to determine sometimes where First Amendment protections lie and where they have diminished,” says Cook of the ACLU.

But what she finds most alarming is that EMAC was requested to deliver heavy-handed militarized crackdown against primarily people of color at Standing Rock and in Baltimore.

The militarized response to communities of color signals a possible double standard in law enforcement’s acceptance of civil disobedience, said Judith LeBlanc, a member of the Caddo Nation of Oklahoma and director of Native Organizers Alliance, an organization that provides training and support for Native activists.

“[Racism] is built into the system and it has specific, very specific impacts on communities of color in general and Indians in particular. We’re actually being called trespassers on land that historically has been our land,” she said in reference to the 1851 treaty.

Civil disobedience has also been integral to the fight for indigenous rights. Native Americans used peaceful protest to defend themselves from European settlers. They hid their children from government officials who wished to assimilate them into White American culture through boarding schools. In 1969, a group calling themselves Indians of All Tribes began a 19-month-long occupation of Alcatraz Island to demand better treatment and bring public awareness to Indian termination, a 20-year national policy designed to acculturate Native Americans and end recognition of tribal sovereignty.

In August, the Native Organizers Alliance continued the tradition by holding a national training in Seattle. It explored how to build a grassroots base in Indian communities, and taught different forms of direct action as well as how to judge what would be most effective in the moment of struggle. For example, soft direct action involves dropping a banner, while hard action includes locking down construction equipment. A majority of the training’s 25 participants went on to join the Standing Rock protest.

In blocking the DAPL, Native protesters are calling on the government to phase out rather than increase fossil fuel development and consult with tribes prior to launching infrastructure projects.

“We either save Mother Earth together or she will perish,” LeBlanc said, adding that the protest at Standing Rock isn’t only about fighting for Native American rights. “When we fight, it is not simply for our land, our air, and our water. It is for all of the people.”

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Don't Call Clinton a Weak Candidate: It Took Decades of Scheming to Beat Her Print
Tuesday, 15 November 2016 15:38

Solnit writes: "Sometimes I think I have never seen anything as strong as Hillary Clinton. That doesn't mean that I like and admire everything about her. I'm not here to argue about who she is, just to note what she did."

'Years of Republican plots, an opponent deified by television, and FBI smears stood in her way - and she still won the popular vote by more than Kennedy did.' (illustration: Andrzej Krauze)
'Years of Republican plots, an opponent deified by television, and FBI smears stood in her way - and she still won the popular vote by more than Kennedy did.' (illustration: Andrzej Krauze)


Don't Call Clinton a Weak Candidate: It Took Decades of Scheming to Beat Her

By Rebecca Solnit, Guardian UK

15 November 16

 

Years of Republican plots, an opponent deified by television, and FBI smears stood in her way – and she still won the popular vote by more than Kennedy did

ometimes I think I have never seen anything as strong as Hillary Clinton. That doesn’t mean that I like and admire everything about her. I’m not here to argue about who she is, just to note what she did. I watched her plow through opposition and attacks the like of which no other candidate has ever faced and still win the popular vote. To defeat her it took an unholy cabal far beyond what Barack Obama faced when he was the campaign of change, swimming with the tide of disgust about the Bush administration. As the New York Times reported, “By the time all the ballots are counted, she seems likely to be ahead by more than 2m votes and more than 1.5 percentage points. She will have won by a wider percentage margin than not only Al Gore in 2000 but also Richard Nixon in 1968 and John F Kennedy in 1960.”

You can flip that and see that Trump was such a weak candidate it took decades of scheming and an extraordinary international roster of powerful players to lay the groundwork that made his election possible. Defeating Clinton in the electoral college took the 2013 gutting of the Voting Rights Act by Republican appointees to the supreme court. It took vast Republican voter suppression laws and tactics set in place over many years. It took voter intimidation at many polling places. It took the long Republican campaign to blow up the boring bureaucratic irregularity of Clinton’s use of a private email server into a scandal that the media obediently picked up and reheated.

It took James Comey, the director of the FBI, using that faux-scandal and his power to stage a misleading smear attack on Clinton 11 days before the election in flagrant violation of the custom of avoiding such intervention for 60 days before an election. It took a compliant mainstream media running after his sabotage like a golden retriever chasing a tennis ball. It took decades of conservative attacks on the Clintons. Comey, incidentally, served as deputy GOP counsel to the Senate Whitewater committee, that fishing expedition that began with an investigation in a messy real estate deal in Arkansas before Bill Clinton’s presidency and ended with a campaign to impeach him on charges related to completely unrelated sexual activities during his second term.

It took a nearly decade-long reality TV show, The Apprentice, that deified Trump’s cruelty, sexism, racism and narcissism as essential to success and power. As the feminist media critic Jennifer Pozner points out: “Everything Trump said and did was framed in a way to flatter him, and more importantly, flatter his worldview.” The colossal infomercial fictionalized the blundering, cheating businessman as an unqualified success and gave him a kind of brand recognition no other candidate had.

It took the full support of Fox News, whose CEO, Roger Ailes, was so committed to him that after leaving the company following allegations of decades of sexual harassment of employees, he joined the Trump campaign. It took the withdrawal of too many Americans from even that calibre of journalism into the partisan unreliability of faux-news sites and confirmation-bias bubbles of social media.

It took the mainstream media’s quarter-century of failure to address climate change as the most important issue of our time. It took decades of most media outlets letting the fossil-fuel industry’s propaganda arm create the false framework of two equally valid opinions rather than reporting the overwhelming scientific consensus and tremendous danger of climate change.

To stop Hillary Clinton it also took Julian Assange, using WikiLeaks as a tool of revenge, evidently considering his grudge against the Democratic nominee important enough to try to aid the campaign of a climate-denying racist authoritarian. Assange now appears to have so close a relationship with Russia that he often appears on the state-funded TV channel and news site RT. He tweeted protests when Russian president Vladimir Putin’s information was included in the Panama Papers hack and has been coy about where his leaked information on the Democratic National Committee came from.

Many intelligence experts say it came from Russian hackers, and Putin made it clear that he favored Trump’s win. The day Comey dropped his bombshell, the New York Times ran a story reassuringly titled Investigating Donald Trump, FBI Sees No Clear Link to Russia with its own astounding, underplayed revelation buried inside: “Investigators, the officials said, have become increasingly confident, based on the evidence they have uncovered, that Russia’s direct goal is not to support the election of Mr Trump, as many Democrats have asserted, but rather to disrupt the integrity of the political system and undermine America’s standing in the world more broadly.”

And it took a shortsighted campaign of hatred on the left, an almost hysterical rage like nothing I have ever seen before about any public figure. Some uncritically picked up half-truths, outright fictions, and rightwing spin to feed their hate and rejected anything that diluted the purity and focus of that fury, including larger questions about the other candidate and the fate of the Earth. It was so extreme that in recent weeks, I was attacked for posting anti-Trump news stories on social media by furious people who took the position that to be overtly anti-Trump was to be covertly pro-Clinton. If the perfect is the enemy of the good, whose friend is it? The greater of two evils?

A lot of people seemed to think the Sanders-Clinton primary ended the night Trump was elected. I saw that stuckness from climate activists, anti-racist journalists, civil-rights champions, and others who you might expect would have turned to face the clear and present danger of a Trump presidency. I heard, for example, much about Clinton’s failure to address the Dakota pipeline adequately – which was true, and bad, but overshadowed by what we heard so little about: Trump’s million dollars or so invested in the pipeline and the guarantee he would use presidential powers to push it and every pipeline like it through.

It’s impossible to disconnect the seething, irrational emotionality from misogyny, and the misogyny continues. Since election night, I’ve been hearing too many men of the left go on and on about how Clinton was a weak candidate. I’ve wondered about that word weak, not only because it is so often associated with women, but because what they’re calling her weakness was their refusal to support her. It’s as if they’re saying, “They sent a pink lifeboat and we sent it back, because we wanted a blue lifeboat, and now we are very upset that people are drowning.”

Or, as my brilliant friend Aruna d’Souza put it Wednesday: “At some point soon we need to discuss whether Sanders would have been able to win, but helpful hint: today, it just sounds like you’re saying: ‘The Democrats should have cut into Trump’s lead in the misogynist vote and the whitelash vote by running a white man.’ Let’s come to terms with the racism and the misogyny first, before analyzing the what-ifs – because otherwise we’re just going to replicate it forever. And if you think that the angry anti-establishment vote won (hence Sanders would have fared better), let me remind you that patriarchy and white supremacy are the cornerstones of the Establishment.”

I know that if Clinton had been elected there would not be terrified and weeping people of color all over the country, small children too afraid to go to school, a shocking spike in hate crimes, high-school students with smashed dreams marching in cities across the country. I deplore some of Hillary Clinton’s past actions and alignments and disagreed with plenty of her 2016 positions. I hoped to be fighting her for the next four years. But I recognize the profound differences between her and Trump on race, gender, immigration and climate, and her extraordinary strength, tenacity and courage in facing and nearly overcoming an astonishing array of obstacles to win the popular vote. Which reminds us that Trump has no mandate and sets before us some of the forces arrayed against us.

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Europe Reacts to Trump: 'The World Is Crumbling in Front of Our Eyes' Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=26591"><span class="small">Der Spiegel</span></a>   
Tuesday, 15 November 2016 15:29

Excerpt: "As is often the case with earth-shaking events, it was the financial markets that reacted first. The DAX, Germany's blue-chip stock index, quickly plunged upon opening on Wednesday morning in response to the news that Donald Trump had won the US presidential elections. But despite expectations by some financial experts that the index would drop by up to 4 percent against Tuesday, the DAX quickly stabilized after opening down just over 1 percent."

German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (photo: Der Spiegel)
German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (photo: Der Spiegel)


Europe Reacts to Trump: 'The World Is Crumbling in Front of Our Eyes'

By Der Spiegel

15 November 16

 

Most in Europe were expecting to wake up to President-elect Hillary Clinton. But now that Trump has won, many political leaders in Germany and the EU are in no mood to celebrate -- with some exceptions.

s is often the case with earth-shaking events, it was the financial markets that reacted first. The DAX, Germany's blue-chip stock index, quickly plunged upon opening on Wednesday morning in response to the news that Donald Trump had won the US presidential elections. But despite expectations by some financial experts that the index would drop by up to 4 percent against Tuesday, the DAX quickly stabilized after opening down just over 1 percent.

"I actually don't expect significantly negative effects for the German economy," Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research, told German press agency DPA.

Among European politicians, though, initial reactions were significantly darker. German Chancellor Angela Merkel felt it necessary in a Wednesday midday statement to remind Trump of the values that bind Germany and America together: "Democracy, freedom, respect for the law and for human dignity, regardless of ancestry, skin color, religion, gender, sexual orientation or political leanings." She then said: "On the basis of these values, I offer the future president of the United States of America, Donald Trump, close cooperation."

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen told German public broadcaster ARD on Wednesday morning that Trump's victory was a "deep shock." She added: "I think Donald Trump also knows that this election was not for him but was against Washington, against the establishment."

In terms of what the election might mean for Germany, von der Leyen said: "Europe has to prepare for the fact that it must provide for itself," including a larger defense budget. She believes that the US will demand greater German engagement in NATO.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier also spoke about what the election might mean for Germany. "We hope that we are not facing greater instability in international politics. During his campaign, Trump was critical not just of Europe, but also of Germany. I believe we must prepare for American foreign policy becoming less predictable. We must prepare for a situation in which America will be tempted to make decisions on its own more often."

"I don't want to sugarcoat it: Nothing will be easier and much will be more difficult," he continued. "Just as we Germans learned a lot in the past from our American friends, we should now encourage our American friends to stay true to past partnerships and to us."

'It Will Only Get Crazier'

Sigmar Gabriel, head of Germany's Social Democrats and Merkel's vice chancellor, was more terse, saying: "Trump is a warning to us as well. He is the harbinger of a new authoritarian and chauvinistic international movement."

German Justice Minister Heiko Maas, of the center-left Social Democrats, took to Twitter, writing: "The world won't end. It will only get crazier."

Cem Özdemir, co-leader of the German Green Party, said: "This is a break with the tradition that the West stands for liberal values."

Reactions elsewhere in Europe were no more optimistic. Former Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta said on Twitter that Trump's victory was "the most significant political development since the fall of the Berlin Wall and a wake-up call for Europe." Gérard Araud, French Ambassador to the US, tweeted: "This is the end of an epoch. After Brexit and this vote anything is possible. The world is crumbling in front of our eyes." He later deleted the tweet.

In Brussels, President of European Martin Schulz said: "I'm not happy about it?. But on the other hand, I also believe that the political system in the US is strong enough to be able to deal with a president like Trump."

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, for their part, wrote a joint letter to Trump in which they invoked the "strategic partnership" between the EU and the US, saying it was "more important than ever before" to strengthen transatlantic relations.

Manfred Weber, floor leader for the center-right European People's Party, also had foreign policy on his mind: "We have to be more self-confident and stronger and take on more responsibility," he said. "We don't know what to expect from the US going forward. ... We cannot leave the playing field to radicals the world over."

Most heads of government across Europe chose to wait with their initial reactions, with some unsurprising exceptions. Those who welcomed Trump's victory were quick to congratulate him. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, for example, said that the Republican's election to the presidency is "fantastic news" showing that "democracy is still alive." Russian President Vladimir Putin quickly sent Trump a congratulatory message.

Other populists in Europe were likewise giddy at the prospect of Trump entering the White House. Marine Le Pen, head of Front National in France, quickly congratulated Trump and "the free American people" on Twitter. She was quickly followed by her deputy Florian Philippot, who tweeted: "Their world is crumbling, ours is building."

Heinz-Christian Strache, head of the right-wing populist Freedom Party of Austria, congratulated Trump on Facebook and wrote: "The political left and aloof, corrupt establishment is being punished by voters step-by-step."

With many in Europe having stayed awake through the night to watch the returns, there were few on Wednesday morning who seemed in much of a mood to argue.

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Could a Trump Administration Overturn Roe v. Wade? Print
Tuesday, 15 November 2016 15:23

Ryan writes: "In a November 13 interview with 60 Minutes, Lesley Stahl asked President-elect Donald Trump to clarify whether he planned on going after Roe v. Wade as he had threatened during his campaign."

Roe v. Wade is in danger. (photo: Pete Marovich/Getty Images)
Roe v. Wade is in danger. (photo: Pete Marovich/Getty Images)


Could a Trump Administration Overturn Roe v. Wade?

By Lisa Ryan, New York Magazine

15 November 16

 

n a November 13 interview with 60 Minutes, Lesley Stahl asked President-elect Donald Trump to clarify whether he planned on going after Roe v. Wade as he had threatened during his campaign. Trump had already started to go back on certain campaign promises — suddenly he claimed to want to keep parts of the Affordable Care Act in place after threatening to gut it. No one really knew where Trump stood on women’s health at that point, so Stahl asked if he would, in fact, appoint Supreme Court judges with the intention of overturning the pivotal 1973 decision that legalized abortion in the United States.

“I’m pro-life. The judges will be pro-life,” Trump said. After briefly (and nonsensically) segueing into Second Amendment rights — or as he called it, “the whole gun situation” — Trump added that if Roe were to be overturned, states would have the authority to regulate abortion within their borders. A woman living in a state where abortion would become illegal could “go to another state” if she wants the procedure, Trump noted.

After a campaign marked by misogyny and bigotry, many women across the country have been terrified as to what a Trump presidency would mean for their reproductive rights. Some hoped that perhaps he was just posturing on the campaign trail, while others feared the worst and have been rushing to get an IUD before he takes office. Trump’s remarks on 60 Minutes were the first formal acknowledgment of the severe threat he poses to women’s health, and points to an uncertain future for abortion in America. Trump himself doesn’t appear to be passionately against abortion, but his vice-president-elect, Mike Pence, is vehemently anti-abortion. However, Trump’s administration won’t be the first to go after abortion rights, and there’s reason to believe that they will fail as others have before him, according to Julie Rikelman, the vice-president of the U.S. legal program at the Center for Reproductive Rights.

“He certainly poses a threat, and we definitely need to be concerned, but we do not believe that Roe v. Wade would be overturned at this point in time,” Rikelman told the Cut. “The precedent has been enforced for over 40 years, and it has survived throughout a variety of administrations that were both pro-choice and anti-choice, including administrations where there has been an effort to put anti-choice justices onto the Supreme Court.”

More than 40 years ago, the Supreme Court ruled 7-2 in favor of a woman called Jane Roe, a Texas mother in her 20s, in her fight against Dallas County district attorney Henry Wade and the state’s abortion law. The ruling established that the decision to terminate a pregnancy was between a woman and her doctor, and protected under the constitutional right to privacy. Since then, there have been a number of attempts to overturn the rights afforded to women by Roe. There was the 1979 attempt to require parental consent for minors seeking an abortion, which was struck down in Bellotti v. Baird, as well as the 1980 Hyde Amendment that blocked Medicaid from covering most abortions, which was upheld by 5-4 by the court in Harris v. McRae.

Less than ten years after Roe was decided, President Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981 with a decidedly anti-abortion agenda. “With me, abortion is not a problem with religion; it’s a problem of the Constitution,” Reagan said in 1984. “I believe that until and unless someone can establish that the unborn child is not a living human being, then that child is already protected by the constitution, which guarantees life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness to all of us.”

During his two terms as president, Reagan appointed three justices to the Supreme Court: Sandra Day O’Connor in 1981, Antonin Scalia in 1986, and Anthony Kennedy in 1987. He also elevated conservative William Rehnquist to the position of chief justice in 1986. Reagan believed the justices he appointed would overturn Roe, according to Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Irvine School of Law.

However, Kennedy ended up becoming the unexpected swing vote in favor of abortion, alongside O’Connor (though her support of abortion wasn’t as surprising, since she was the first woman appointed to the Supreme Court). “The bottom line is, the reason Roe didn’t get overruled was that Kennedy voted to affirm Roe v. Wade in 1992 in Planned Parenthood v. Casey,” Chemerinsky told the Cut. “We know he originally voted in that case to overturn Roe, and then changed his mind.”

In June of this year, Kennedy once again served as the swing vote to protect abortion in Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, a decision that overturned two Texas abortion restrictions. “It was a big win for women, for the rule of law, and for science,” the Center for Reproductive Rights’ Rikelman told the Cut. “What the Supreme Court said in that case was not only is the constitutional right to abortion a meaningful right and an important right that just can’t be restricted for any reason, but it said that when states restrict that right, they have to have good reasons for doing so that are based on real evidence, not junk science.”

As it stands, there has been a vacancy on the Supreme Court since Justice Scalia passed away in February. Scalia has not yet been replaced because Republicans have steadfastly refused to confirm President Barack Obama’s nominee Merrick Garland. Therefore, Trump is expected to nominate a new justice to the court once he enters the White House, presumably picking someone from a list of 21 potential nominees he presented during his campaign. Each of Trump’s potential candidates are known for being quite conservative and, for the most part, extremely anti-abortion. One of them, Charles T. Canady, a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives, came up with the highly misused term “partial-birth abortion” when helping to develop the Partial-Birth Abortion Ban of 1995. Eighth-circuit judge Steven Colloton, who upheld a South Dakota law that doctors must warn women who have abortions that they are at risk of suicide, is also up for the job. Likewise, 11th-circuit judge William H. Pryor has called abortion “murder” and referred to Roe as an “abominable decision.”

Replacing Scalia with another conservative would merely restore the status quo of the court, said Michael Klarman, a constitutional law professor at Harvard School of Law. Yet there’s a chance that Trump may get to appoint additional justices during his tenure as president, since three of the liberal justices are quite old: Ginsberg is 83, Kennedy is 80, and Breyer is 78. “In the last 40 years, justices usually don’t choose to retire under presidents of the opposing party; it’s very unusual for them to do so. Scalia would never have voluntarily done so, but he couldn’t control the timing of his death,” Klarman told the Cut. Should one or more of these justices step down or pass away while Trump is in office, Roe could be at risk.

However, the Center for Reproductive Rights believes that even with the appointment of two or more additional conservative judges, Roe will likely remain intact. That’s because the court doesn’t tend to go against its own precedent, and would be putting its “institutional legitimacy on the line” if it overturned Roe merely because its composition had changed, according to Rikelman. Furthermore, the court likely wouldn’t want to appear political by changing its mind because there’s a new administration in the White House. But Chemerinsky isn’t so sure. “If Ginsberg or Kennedy or Breyer leaves the court, there will be five votes to overrule Roe v. Wade – and it’s going to be overruled,” he said.

Regardless, there are a number of cases in the works that could potentially serve as a vehicle for the Supreme Court to reconsider Roe in the next few years. “Between 2010 and 2015, states adopted 290 different laws imposing restrictions on abortions, and many, many of these laws are being challenged right now in federal courts,” Chemerinsky said. Additionally, the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act, which has already passed through the House, is seen by many as an attempt to circumvent Roe. The act would restrict abortion after 20 weeks, by claiming that a fetus can feel pain at that point. But according to Rikelman, there’s no “credible, medical” evidence that shows a fetus could feel pain at that point in a pregnancy. Instead, the law would merely “deprive women of their constitutional rights,” she said.

If Roe ever were to be overturned, though, women nationwide would face significant health risks, as abortion regulations would be decided by individual states. Those in certain “blue” states, such as New York and California, would still have the same access to abortion they do now, but women in more rural and conservative states might have to travel long distances or consider unsafe or illegal means to end a pregnancy. “We know, both from before the time when Roe v. Wade existed in the United States and from what happens elsewhere in the world, that women suffer, their health suffers, and unfortunately women die,” Rikelman said.

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