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Why Bernie Sanders Is Pushing for More Employee-Owners in the Workforce Print
Friday, 26 May 2017 13:51

Bonanno writes: "The best-kept business model secret of our age is about to get the spotlight it has long deserved. It's employee ownership - a proven, common-sense pathway to reduce inequality, anchor jobs at home, and rebuild a strong and stable economy, using a vehicle that's as American as apple pie: making entrepreneurs out of regular, working folks."

Two progressive champions - senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - are teaming up to put their weight behind a pair of federal bills to make employee ownership more accessible. (photo: Gage Skidmore/Flickr)
Two progressive champions - senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - are teaming up to put their weight behind a pair of federal bills to make employee ownership more accessible. (photo: Gage Skidmore/Flickr)


Why Bernie Sanders Is Pushing for More Employee-Owners in the Workforce

By Jessica Bonanno, YES! Magazine

26 May 17

 

In times when Washington is unlikely to agree on much, employee ownership offers a bipartisan approach toward building a stronger and more just economy.

he best-kept business model secret of our age is about to get the spotlight it has long deserved. It’s employee ownership—a proven, common-sense pathway to reduce inequality, anchor jobs at home, and rebuild a strong and stable economy, using a vehicle that’s as American as apple pie: making entrepreneurs out of regular, working folks.

Two progressive champions—Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY)—are teaming up to put their weight behind a pair of federal bills to make employee ownership more accessible. And—believe it or not—this is a policy idea that might actually have a chance, since prominent Republicans like Ronald Reagan have long favored employee ownership, which leverages firm structure, rather than social programs, to improve family economic outcomes. In an era of hunger for solutions to inequality, this may be an idea whose time has finally come.

Employee ownership works for the workers who get a direct share in the economy, for the companies whose performance is demonstrably improved by a workforce invested in their jobs, and for the communities that need jobs anchored locally, not around the globe paying the lowest wages. And crucially, it’s a strategy for greater equality and shared prosperity with a proven track record: There are more than 10 million employee-owners in the United States today who work and own a stake in companies like Publix Supermarkets, Wawa Convenience Stores, or New Belgium Brewing. And while there are a wide range of social enterprise approaches being piloted in communities across the United States, none can match employee ownership for proven, scalable impact, with models that are nationally vetted and that have been successfully deployed for decades.

The two bills introduced by Sanders—the Worker Ownership, Readiness, and Knowledge (WORK) Act and the U.S. Employee Ownership Bank Act—are critically important tools in the effort to scale employee ownership in the U.S. The initial research we carried out here at The Democracy Collaborative, through our Fifty by Fifty Initiative, a collaborative partnership between leading employee ownership advocates like the National Center for Employee Ownership, the Democracy at Work Institute, the ICA Group, and Certified Employee-Owned, has suggested that a target of 50 million employee-owners in the U.S. workforce by 2050—or roughly 25 percent of the projected future workforce—is an attainable goal, if key barriers are addressed.

Historically, adoption of employee ownership in the U.S. has been largely driven by powerful tax incentives, primarily at the federal level, that assist owners who want to sell their businesses to their employees and provide a range of game-changing tax deductions to companies operating under various employee ownership structures—like Employee Stock Ownership Plans and worker cooperatives.

The two new bills introduced in the Senate would further incentivize uptake of this key strategy for broadening access to business ownership. First, the U.S. Employee Ownership Bank Act would establish an important source of public financing to help founders who want to sell their companies to the employees who helped them build. By providing loan guarantees or subordinated debt to help employees buy their workplaces—particularly when the owners try to move their jobs overseas—this legislation doesn’t assume that the government can do everything, but instead encourages the creation of a smarter, more sustainable, and more cost-effective public-private ecosystem of financial support for transitions to employee ownership. Such ecosystems of support for broad-based ownership are critical, as we highlighted in our report Strategies For Financing the Inclusive Economy.

The second bill, the WORK Act, is another key piece of the puzzle. All the tax breaks and financing options in the world won’t create a single employee-owned company if no one is aware of the option or doesn’t have the technical capacity to make the transition happen. Indeed, our Fifty by Fifty research found that lack of awareness is one of the critical factors preventing employee ownership from scaling to its full potential. The WORK Act addresses this barrier head on, making grants available to local entities doing the necessary work of employee ownership education and training. We profiled one of the leading examples of this approach, the Ohio Employee Ownership Center, in our report Educate and Empower: Tools For Building Community Wealth—and found that this kind of education paired with technical assistance is not only incredibly effective, but also highly cost-efficient.

Over the course of three decades, OEOC has helped more than 90 companies convert to employee ownership, creating 15,000 employee-owners at an estimated cost of just $772 a job. The recent success of a similar, smaller-scale initiative in New York City shows that this kind of public support for technical assistance is even more essential for worker cooperative development, employee-owned startups, and employee buyouts of smaller shops. While larger, more established businesses can access the necessary financing and absorb the transaction costs of an ownership transition, launching new employee-owned businesses or transitioning mom-and-pop shops to worker ownership requires a more robust ecosystem of technical support.

Here at the Democracy Collaborative, we’ve recognized with many others the incredible threat presented by the “silver tsunami”: as the baby boomer generation prepares to retire, too many of the businesses they own lack a succession plan. Without plans for ownership transitions, businesses shutter, workers lose their jobs, and communities suffer. But federal support for employee ownership can help turn this looming threat into an incredible opportunity to rebuild a strong U.S. economy where all can prosper. A U.S. economy anchored in widespread employee ownership would represent a fundamentally different kind of economy, in which millions more families enjoy greater financial stability, increased income, and greater retirement security.

Moreover, in times when Washington is unlikely to agree on much, employee ownership’s proven track record and demonstrated bipartisan appeal offers a chance to build toward a stronger and more just economy when many other avenues of transformative reform may prove blocked.

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Trump: Let's Drill for Oil in America's Last Pristine Wilderness to Balance the Budget Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=30058"><span class="small">Andy Rowell, Oil Change International</span></a>   
Friday, 26 May 2017 13:35

Rowell writes: "As the rest of the world embraces renewables, President Trump is belligerently ignoring the global trends and trying to promote fossil fuels."

The Brooks Range in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. (photo: Hillebrand/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)
The Brooks Range in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. (photo: Hillebrand/U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)


Trump: Let's Drill for Oil in America's Last Pristine Wilderness to Balance the Budget

By Andy Rowell, Oil Change International

26 May 17

 

isruption" is one of the buzzwords of the energy market right now as plummeting costs of renewables is changing the way we heat our homes and drive our automobiles.

Some of the biggest names in the energy business spoke Wednesday on that very topic in London at the Financial Times' Energy Transition Strategies Summit, at the panel Rethinking Energy in a Time of Disruption.

The speakers discussed the "major trends transforming the global energy industry and the leading-edge strategies to adapt, thrive and prosper in the brave new post-COP world which is emerging."

At the conference there was huge excitement about the clean energy transition, with the FT believing the transition is well under way. Wilfrid Petrie, CEO of ENGIE UK & Ireland, told the audience, "The transition to clean energy is more like a revolution."

Juliet Davenport, founder and CEO of Good Energy, one of the UK's first 100 percent renewable electricity supply and generator companies, added that rapidly changing "consumer behavior" as well as "technological change" was leading to a "fast energy transition to renewables."

Even Big Oil admitted that rapid change was amongst us. Spencer Dale, chief economist of BP, told the conference that "renewables will grow faster than any energy source ever, any time in history."

Indeed, the International Renewable Energy Agency annual report believes some 9.8 million people are now employed by the renewable industry, up 1.1 percent from 2015. More than three million of those are in solar power.

As the rest of the world embraces renewables, President Trump is belligerently ignoring the global trends and trying to promote fossil fuels. Ed Fenster of U.S. solar group Sunrun told the FT conference, "We really don't see a material impact from the Trump administration."

Despite this, Trump will have some discernible impact on the global energy market, specifically in North America. And while business increasingly wants to rip up the rules of the energy market, Trump wants to rip up one of North America's last pristine wilderness areas for oil: the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).

Many people thought the debate about whether to drill in ANWR, the largest protected wilderness in the U.S., was long dead and buried. Drilling for oil in ANWR was first mooted in the seventies, and has continued ever since.

According to Defenders of Wildlife, "At more than 19 million acres, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is the crown jewel of the National Wildlife Refuge System. It is also one of the last intact landscapes in America, and home to 37 species of land mammals, eight marine mammals, 42 fish species and more than 200 migratory bird species."

But if you thought ANWR was safe, think again. Trump and his fossil fuel cronies want to try and drill it for oil one last time. In his budget announced Tuesday, opening up ANWR is a priority for Trump.

The ANWR line item in the budget plan "is entirely consistent with, and in fact a central part of, the president's desire to be not only energy independent, but energy dominant. We want to dominate that space," according to Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget.

Trump wants to dominate the energy market. But as energy pioneers disrupt that market towards clean tech, Trump and his fossil fuel buddies cling to a by-gone age of fossil fuels. But we must not let them destroy America's "crown jewels" in what could be one of the last destructive acts of the hydrocarbon age. We must disrupt. We must resist.

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FOCUS: Building a Party Progressives Can Call Home Print
Friday, 26 May 2017 12:05

Galindez writes: "Far too often Democrats are trying to appear friendly to management and corporate America, and in the process they are leaving workers and the people they should be organizing and representing unrepresented."

Bernie Sanders supporters rally in Miami on March 8, 2016, the day of the Michigan primary. (photo: Alan Diaz/AP)
Bernie Sanders supporters rally in Miami on March 8, 2016, the day of the Michigan primary. (photo: Alan Diaz/AP)


Building a Party Progressives Can Call Home

By Scott Galindez, Reader Supported News

26 May 17

 

kay, so I am a dreamer, I’m idealistic, a tree hugger, a bleeding heart, and I probably care too much. I believe in shared responsibility. Republicans are proud to stand for individual responsibility. Republicans want lower taxes and, they say, smaller government. The reality though is they want the government to focus on supporting big business. Progressives and many liberals want to focus on the needs of individuals.

We believe the government should concentrate on healthcare, education, housing, environmental protection and ending poverty. That is why progressives tend to support labor, and the GOP supports management. That is why progressives support universal healthcare, and the Republicans want people to save their money and take care of themselves.

Far too often Democrats are trying to appear friendly to management and corporate America, and in the process they are leaving workers and the people they should be organizing and representing unrepresented.

I believe progressives must continue the fight to open the doors to the Democratic Party, but if the Democratic Party continues to resist, workers need a party that puts them first. I still believe that under our current system, forming a new political party is a foolish endeavor. However, let us look at a scenario where creating a progressive people’s party would work.

An impeachment of Donald Trump could cause a split in the Republican Party, with folks like Steve Bannon leading an effort to form a new party. You might then have groups like the Freedom Caucus and the Progressive Caucus working together to reform the political process. The only way we can break up the two-party system is if there is a split in both sides that leads lawmakers to make it easier for new parties to compete. Forget the term “third party” — if there isn’t a fourth splitting up the other major party then it won’t work.

I attended a conference 20 years or more ago where the Green Party, Reform Party, libertarians, and others met to discuss how to end the two-party system. It didn’t go anywhere, and today the Democrats and Republicans still have total control of our political system despite the fact that more people consider themselves independent than a member of either party.

My fellow Democrats, if you want to avoid a scenario where the party splits between progressives and corporate-friendly Democrats, then let’s become a workers’ party again.

A workers’ party would never have supported NAFTA or the TPP. A workers’ party would see that the private insurance industry is not working for health care and that a single-payer universal system is the solution. A workers’ party would see that education should be free from pre-school to college graduation. A workers’ party would protect the environment over corporate profit. A workers’ party would represent everyone, gay or straight, whites and people of color, men and women.

That is the Democratic Party that Bernie Sanders and his political revolution is trying to create. He doesn’t call himself a Democrat, yet. Build a Democratic Party that he would be proud to join fully and he might join. If not, progressives might have to find a home that we are proud of.



Scott Galindez attended Syracuse University, where he first became politically active. The writings of El Salvador's slain archbishop Oscar Romero and the on-campus South Africa divestment movement converted him from a Reagan supporter to an activist for Peace and Justice. Over the years he has been influenced by the likes of Philip Berrigan, William Thomas, Mitch Snyder, Don White, Lisa Fithian, and Paul Wellstone. Scott met Marc Ash while organizing counterinaugural events after George W. Bush's first stolen election. Scott moved to Des Moines in 2015 to cover the Iowa Caucus.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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FOCUS: Trump of Arabia Print
Friday, 26 May 2017 11:10

Bronner writes: "President Donald Trump is facing a credibility crisis."

Saudi Arabia's king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud walks with U.S. president Donald Trump during a reception ceremony in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 20, 2017. (photo: Bandar Algloud/Saudi Royal Court/Reuters)
Saudi Arabia's king Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud walks with U.S. president Donald Trump during a reception ceremony in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, May 20, 2017. (photo: Bandar Algloud/Saudi Royal Court/Reuters)


Trump of Arabia

By Stephen Eric Bronner, Reader Supported News

26 May 17

 

resident Donald Trump is facing a credibility crisis. He admitted to disclosing classified information to Russian officials; his top staff has allegedly had illicit dealings with foreign governments; he fired former FBI Director James Comey; he has also opposed the appointment of a special prosecutor and Congressional investigations into his former NSA director, Michael Flynn. The media is justifiably concerned about the intimidation of journalists, the references to “fake news,” the constant lying, and the president’s lack of credibility. Authoritarian austerity is growing with White House attacks on the welfare state and healthcare, women’s organizations, immigration, and democratic governance. Under the circumstances, taking a trip to the Middle East was not such a bad idea. The mainstream media certainly breathed a sigh of relief. Its commentators could now switch from reporting on depressing topics to the red-carpet treatment that Trump received in Saudi Arabia, the traditional sword dance in which he participated, and Melania Trump’s decision not to wear a headscarf (a supposed breach of etiquette for which Candidate Trump had excoriated Michelle Obama while she was First Lady). Commentators could now laugh at new jokes concerning the president’s sudden interest in Islam, his plans while in Israel to visit Masada by helicopter, and his intention to spend fifteen minutes at Yad Vashem in order to learn something about the Holocaust.

As these stories saturated the airwaves, however, serious matters were pushed off-stage. Little meaningful coverage has been given to Trump’s misguided and dangerous reversal of policy for the Middle East. Discrete aspects might have been discussed, but not how the whole threatens to become more than the sum of its parts. Doubts exist whether an overriding strategy even exists or whether instead the president is haphazardly and emotionally reacting to events (as with his recent decision to bomb Syria after seeing some of Assad’s atrocities on the evening news).

Undoubtedly, the $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia is the centerpiece of Trump’s Middle Eastern policy. Apparently, he has decided to distinguish between the “good” Arabs (aligned with the United States) and the “evil” Islamic fringe elements (such as al-Qaeda and ISIS). And that is okay. Or sort of okay. There remain a few minor (!) problems worth considering. The most obvious is that, whereas Trump’s run to the presidency championed the fight against Islamic terrorism, powerful sects like the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia sponsored Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda, its off-shoot the al-Nusra front in Syria, and ISIS in Iraq. Like Saudi Arabia itself, these terrorist organizations are exclusively Sunni and, though extremists often target more moderate co-religionists, their primary enemies remain the Shia militias in Iraq, the Shia rebels in Yemen, the Shia state of Iran, and the Alawite-Shia government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Especially since Trump explicitly stated that his arms deal would help Saudi Arabia counter “the malign influence of Iran,” it seems safe to assume that deposing Assad has become the strategic priority over combatting ISIS.

More than that: Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly use the $110 billion in arms purchases to support an ongoing transnational offensive against Shia forces that have, for better or worse, played the leading role in fighting terrorism. That white is black and black is white requires explanation. So, it’s a sure bet that right-wing media in the United States will demonize Iran and turn it into the source of Islamic extremism. Just a reminder: the same tactic was employed when the secular regime of Saddam Hussein was portrayed as allied with al-Qaeda (and look at how well that turned out). In any event, Trump’s strategy calls upon the United States to act as an arms peddler (not so different from a drug dealer) and the close ally of a particularly detested reactionary regime.

But it is a powerful regime. Saudi Arabia is preeminent among the Gulf States. Its “Arab Peace Plan” of 2002, which Trump is now seeking to resurrect, proposed recognition of Israel by all states in the Arab Union in exchange for withdrawal from the occupied territories. The “right of return” would be dealt with in terms of financial compensation for refugees (probably funded by Saudi Arabia) and Jerusalem would basically become an open city. The Saudi proposal is the only comprehensive plan on the table. Trump is right in endorsing it, and perhaps even putting Saudi Arabia in charge of negotiations. But the plan seems dated. The world has changed since 2002. Israeli settlements have multiplied drastically, thereby fragmenting the occupied territories and making land swaps far more difficult; Israeli public opinion has also shifted dramatically to the right and Binyamin Netanyahu’s ruling coalition rests on the ultra-orthodox and the ultra-nationalists. Israel has been the beneficiary of internecine fighting between the corrupt, incompetent, and increasingly illegitimate Palestinian Authority of the West Bank and a stubborn and authoritarian Hamas in Gaza. As their low-level civil war continues, the settlements expand, and right-wing parties grow stronger, Israel has no incentive to negotiate seriously let alone accept a Palestinian state.

Nothing ventured nothing gained: Trump of Arabia, like T.E. Lawrence, can now present himself as the blond-haired European intent upon resolving a seemingly irresolvable conflict. Such a role would surely suit the president’s narcissistic and megalomaniacal self-image. Of course, the bar doesn’t need to be set quite so high. It would be enough if the Saudi trade agreement simply made some cash for firms like Lockheed Martin and thereby created jobs (though this economic sector is not now experiencing labor shortages). But then there is Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and trusted advisor, who allegedly intervened with Lockheed’s CEO, Marilyn Hewson, to lower the price of arms for Saudi Arabia. No need to mention Kushner’s shady real estate dealings outside the United States. It is undoubtedly a welcome sign that the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates have (innocently!) agreed to provide $100 million for Ivanka Trump’s very new fund to help women starting small businesses (New York Times 5/22/2017).

There is also the Russian angle. President Trump has depicted Vladimir Putin as a friend and ally in order to justify passing classified intelligence information to the Russian foreign minister and the Russian Ambassador to the United States. With the new arms deal, however, the enemies of Saudi Arabia become our enemies; Russia’s alliance with Iran and the Syrian government makes the president’s indiscretions appear even more reckless. Trump is surely counting on his personal relationship with Putin to break his alliance with Rouhani and Assad. But this would not be in the Russian national interest. Even the economic benefit of lifting US sanctions is far outweighed by the political threat Islamic extremism poses in Russia’s southern and eastern territories as well as the certainty of Russia losing influence in the Middle East.

Advocating a new détente with Putin is a sensible idea – but only if similar overtures are made to Iran. It is either both or neither. Yet Trump doesn’t see it that way – at least not now. While embracing Russia, he has threatened to jettison the nuclear deal with Iran, re-impose sanctions, and perhaps even launch a military strike. This can only leave American foreign policy at cross-purposes. The timing for his new ideological campaign against Iran is also particularly inauspicious. President Hassan Rouhani was just re-elected against his far-right opponent by 57% to 31% with 70% of citizens voting. Trump’s incitements strengthen Iran’s most reactionary elements and anti-Western sentiments. They leave Rouhani stranded and, what’s more, undermine the opportunity of further cooperation. That is all the more unfortunate since Iran is crucial for resolving the ongoing conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Yemen.

Syria is a case in point. Russia and Iran are on one side and the United States is on the other in its seemingly endless civil war. Prospects for peace will improve if these three nations sit down with one another. With the Saudi agreement, however, American policy will become even more partisan in its support for rebel forces that are fractured, incompetent, and vulnerable to Islamic extremists. The trade deal raises the stakes, thereby heightening the likelihood of greater American involvement in yet another conflict for which it is clearly unprepared. The United States once again will appear as an imperialist interloper, especially since it lacks an exit strategy and “mission creep” is looming. Is the strategic goal occasional military intervention to level the playing field, regime change, or nation-building? Worst case scenario: heightened tensions and possible war between the United States and Russia, Syrian disintegration into cantons and hamlets run by religious and ethnic warlords, and yet more genocidal conflicts between Sunnis and Shia. No less than the costs others must bear, the president might want to consider the American national interest a bit more carefully the next time he engages in “the art of the deal.”



Stephen Eric Bronner is Board of Governors Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University. His latest books include The Bigot: Why Prejudice Persists and The Bitter Taste of Hope: Ideals, Ideologies, and Interests in the Age of Obama.

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American Guns Drive the Migrant Crisis That Trump Wants to Fix With a Wall Print
Friday, 26 May 2017 08:32

Yablon writes: "To actually relieve the pressure driving people to seek refuge means slowing the flow of American firearms that are destabilizing its southern neighbors."

Central American migrants sit atop a freight train - known as 'La Bestia' - as it passes through Arriaga, Mexico, in 2013. (photo: John Moore/Getty)
Central American migrants sit atop a freight train - known as 'La Bestia' - as it passes through Arriaga, Mexico, in 2013. (photo: John Moore/Getty)


American Guns Drive the Migrant Crisis That Trump Wants to Fix With a Wall

By Alex Yablon, The Trace

26 May 17

 

Tens of thousands of firearms smuggled from the United States help to fuel extreme rates of violence south of the border.

hen José Luis Hernández was a boy, his hometown of San Pedro Sula, Honduras, had its share of gangs, neighborhood toughs who used knives to claim turf and settle scores. As he came of age, a new generation of criminals took over. These crews worked with international organized crime rings, and they carried guns.

“I started seeing guys around town that weren’t just local gangs,” Hernández says. “They were sicarios” — professional killers working for the drug cartels — “armed better than the police. They’d have AK-47s.”

As Honduran gangs grew ever more well-armed and difficult to police, they gave young men like Hernández an impossible decision: join up, or be marked for death. In a single month, one gang in San Pedro Sula tortured and murdered as many as eight minors who refused to enlist. Across the small country, according to official counts, nearly 50,000 people were murdered between 2008 and 2015. In several of those years, civilian homicides reached a rate of 80 per 100,000 residents — a higher rate than recorded at the height of the Iraqi insurgency. Eighty percent of Honduran homicide victims were shot.

“With all the violence” Hernández says, “I didn’t have a choice” but to flee north to the United States. “I call it a forced migration.”

He made one unsuccessful attempt to get to the United States in 2005, then journeyed north a second time the next year, hopping a Mexican freight train line known to migrants as La Bestia (The Beast) for the tendency of riders to be maimed or killed while riding it. Clinging to the train in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, Hernández fainted and fell. The train severed a leg, an arm, and half of one of his hands as it rolled on without him. He was hospitalized for more than a year in Mexico before being deported back to his home country.

Hernández again braved the trip to the United States in 2015, as part of a larger group of disabled Hondurans calling themselves themselves the Caravan of the Mutilated. This time, they reached the border crossing at Eagle Pass, Texas, where they sought and received asylum.

“We had nothing to lose,” Hernandez says of his reason for undertaking the arduous passage, “and a lot of hope to achieve something” by escaping Honduras.

Federal immigration statistics show that Hernández and his caravan are part of a tidal wave of Central Americans driven north by violence in their home countries. The flow became a humanitarian and political crisis in 2014, when the Department of Homeland Security apprehended nearly 480,000 people at the southern border, including tens of thousands of unaccompanied minors. In 2016, another 400,000 people were captured by the Border Patrol in southwestern states.

Dramatically reducing immigration to the United States is a pillar of President Donald Trump’s agenda. He announced his candidacy with warnings about undocumented Latino migrants bringing drugs, violence, and rape. He has secured $341 million in federal spending for the first phase of a promised 20-foot-high wall to keep them out, and requested $1.6 billion more to extend the barrier. Arrests of undocumented immigrants, the majority of whom lack records of other criminal offenses, are up 38 percent during the first three months of the Trump administration, a crackdown designed to deter would-be migrants from entering the country. Recent reports say the Border Patrol is refusing to admit asylum seekers like Hernández, in violation of international law.

But experts say Trump’s tactics could amount to a finger plugged into the dike, halting people at the border without addressing the reasons why they flee to America.

To actually relieve that pressure driving people to seek refuge, they add, means slowing the flow of American firearms that are destabilizing its southern neighbors. On May 25, Congressman Raúl Grijalva, an Arizona Democrat who represents a border district, will host a briefing on Capitol Hill meant to highlight the overlooked role that American guns play in the migrant crisis.

“You cannot deal with the problem of violence in the region without talking about the influx of weapons,” says José Miguel Cruz, a political scientist at Florida International University who studies crime in Central America.

Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador each tightly restricts civilian gun ownership. The smaller Central American nations have no domestic firearms industries to speak of. But over the past few decades, guns have poured into the region, sourced from the vast civilian gun market in the United States and smuggled to Central America in the trunks of cars or sneaked into packages alongside common household items. In one recent bust, an Ohio gun shop owner was caught selling dozens of guns — including 62 Barrett .50 caliber rifles, the same weapons used by Navy SEAL snipers, at approximately $8,000 apiece — to a group who drove them down to McAllen, Texas, and across the Rio Grande.

Played out by hundreds of similar trafficking syndicates, such schemes form a trans-border, southbound equivalent to the “Iron Pipeline,” the busy smuggling route from states in the American South with loose gun laws to states like New York that more strictly regulate firearms.

As many as a quarter to half of all guns seized by police in Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador and submitted for tracing by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives are sourced to the United States — a total of 5,928 firearms in 2014 and 2015 alone, easily making America the single largest source of weapons in these countries.

Between 2009 and 2014, Mexican authorities confiscated 73,000 guns traced back to the United States. The Mexican government estimates as many as 2,000 guns cross the border from America every day.

“On one trip to Mexico City, I watched officials load up all the illegal American guns captured in a week or so,” says Congressman Eliot Engel, a New York Democrat who became aware of the issue through his past chairmanship of a House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee. “It filled up an entire room.”

There’s evidence that the flow of guns from the United States onto the streets of San Pedro Sula and other violent hotspots has only increased. The Honduran newspaper La Tribuna reported that the country’s customs officials last year seized an average of 35 to 40 contraband gun or ammunition shipments per month, up from an average of 2.5 seizures per month in 2011. In El Salvador, the gun trade has become so lucrative that after years of buying guns for its own use, the notorious gang Mara Salvatrucha, also known as MS-13, has started selling weapons to the public.

In a vicious cycle, the same nation that millions of Central Americans have sought as a safe haven — the United States — is supplying the firearms that make their homelands too dangerous to live in.  

When it comes to reducing violent crime, America’s Latin neighbors “are limited by the thousands of illegal weapons that arrive in our country every year from our northern border,” Mexico’s then-Foreign Minister Claudia Ruiz Massieu said last August. “This gives transnational criminal organizations enormous firepower.”

Since the late 1990s, the American government has made halting efforts to reduce criminal violence in neighboring countries through diplomacy, foreign aid, and law enforcement. No element of those interventions has aroused as much controversy as the attempt to stamp out cross-border gun trafficking.

The failed sting operation known as “Fast and Furious” became one of the biggest firestorms of the Obama era after an ATF group in Arizona trying to track gun purchases by Mexican drug cartels lost weapons, some of which were used to kill an American Border Patrol agent. More recently, the Justice Department’s inspector general excoriated the ATF and the Drug Enforcement Administration for failing to interdict guns smuggled from Texas to Mexico, where members of the Zetas cartel used them to murder an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent named Jaime Zapata.

Republicans in Congress, egged on by the National Rifle Association, have made the most of those missteps, citing them as a reason to freeze ATF funding and block the appointment of a permanent director for the bureau.

The NRA has also consistently opposed measures that might reduce cross-border gun trafficking, successfully lobbying to prevent passage of legislation that would create new anti-trafficking statutes or enter the United States into small-arms control treaties.

Policymakers active in migrant issues see few reasons for optimism.

“In a bigger structural way, you’re never going to move the needle on this until you address domestic gun laws,” says a congressional aide who has worked on Central American immigration for the past decade. “There’s barely been any willingness to do that before, and there’s even less willingness now.”

Frank Longoria is the assistant director for the federal Customs and Border Protection agency. He oversees the border crossing in Laredo, Texas, the fourth-busiest in the United States for passenger vehicles. His officers spend their days taking the measure of drivers who spend as long as 45 minutes waiting to cross the Rio Grande. Identifying gun smugglers is a core task, one that relies heavily on intuition.

“They’ll just try to read people,” Longoria says. “See if they’re acting fidgety, not making eye contact, looking around nervously.”  

If a driver arouses suspicion, Longoria’s officers will run a canine unit through the car, scan it with a device known as a electronic density meter, or use an X-ray van.

The haul of weapons seized at the crossings Longoria supervises fluctuates widely, but in 2016 his agents seized 70 firearms and more than 25,000 rounds of ammunition. From Longoria’s vantage point, the busts have had scant deterrent effect.

“We’ve seen increases almost every year,” he says.

It doesn’t take a master supervillain to smuggle American guns out of the country. Weapons seep southward in “dribs and drabs,” hidden in cars, clothes, food, and electronics, according to the Geneva-based Small Arms Survey.

Take the case of another native son of San Pedro Sula. After emigrating to the United States, Wilmer Meija-Fuentes married and started a small construction business outside Indianapolis. The entrepreneurial Meija-Fuentes also had a sideline in trafficking guns to his home country.

In many ways, Meija-Fuentes resembled a typical American gun buyer. He didn’t have a criminal history. He liked to shop for guns with his wife, Starlene, and friend Alex Martinez-Banegas. He was comfortable and familiar in local firearms stores.

So comfortable, in fact, that in 2010 he told a clerk at the Family Indoor Shooting Range that he was going to mail several identical Beretta Model 92 semiautomatic pistols he was purchasing to Honduras. Buying multiple identical weapons is a red flag for trafficking, and the clerk asked his customer if what he intended to do was OK. Meija-Fuentes produced what he said was a Honduran concealed-carry permit, and assured the clerk that exporting the guns was, in fact, legal.

There is no such thing as a Honduran concealed-carry permit — the country banned the practice in 2007 — and the piece of paper Meija-Fuentes actually needed was an export license. He didn’t have one. The clerk sold him the weapons anyway.

The clerk also sold additional weapons to Meija-Feuntes’s wife, even though she was clearly acting under her husband’s direction — and had therefore lied on her federal gun background-check form, which asks, “Are you the actual buyer/transferee?”

Once Meija-Fuentes and his accomplices bought their weapons, they employed a variety of low-tech means to get them out of the country, often tapping shipping companies based in Brownsville, Texas, or Miami, a tactic smugglers have employed since at least the early 1990s.

One member of the ring stashed pistols inside a stereo. Into the same shipping container went two Coleman beverage coolers, each filled with green paint and hiding a handgun. Meija-Fuentes bought used cars, tucked guns into their doors or other internal compartments, and sent them off to Honduras. Sometimes, Meija-Fuentes told investigators, he simply put the weapons in his luggage when flying home to San Pedro Sula.

The Meija-Fuentes ring operated without detection for at least two years until 2010, when a routine scan of a shipping container by Honduran customs officials revealed guns inside the Coleman coolers. As its leader, Meija-Fuentes was later sentenced to three years in federal prison.

There are 60,000 licensed gun dealers in the United States, an estimated 265 million civilian firearms, and countless private sellers offloading pistols and assault-style rifles from their private collections without any government oversight. Limiting gun trafficking would be an enormous challenge even if there were broad political agreement on what should be done. As it stands, the issue — like all things involving guns in the United States — is hugely divisive, with the powerful gun lobby working to oppose any intervention that could be interpreted as implying that American gun owners and gun businesses are complicit in bloodshed.

In 1997, President Bill Clinton’s administration helped draft the first international small-arms control treaty, known by the acronym CIFTA, which mandates strict monitoring of gun businesses and export controls. It has since been signed and ratified by all but three countries in the Western Hemisphere — one of which is the United States, the largest gunmaker and the largest retail gun market in the world, severely hindering the pact’s effectiveness. Though Obama urged its ratification soon after his first inauguration, CIFTA hasn’t been mentioned in Congress since 2009, when then-Senator John Kerry made one statement calling for its ratification.

Wayne LaPierre, the NRA’s executive vice president, responded to the Obama administration’s wan pro-CIFTA push by warning  “that anti-gun advocates will … try to use this treaty to attack gun ownership,” even though the State Department sought the NRA’s input when drafting the treaty.

As LaPierre was attacking one transnational effort to reduce gun violence in Central America, his colleague, the top NRA lobbyist Chris Cox, worked to derail another, giving House testimony against the Merida Initiative, a multi-billion dollar program launched under the George W. Bush administration to aid law enforcement in Mexico.

Part of the Merida Initiative included funding for Mexico to work with the ATF to trace American firearms back to their source. Cox pushed back against suggestions that American gun sellers and buyers had anything to do with cartel violence.

“The crisis in Mexico is being used as yet another pretext to restrict the Second Amendment rights of law-abiding Americans,” Cox said.

In late 2010, the Obama administration proposed a rule change that required licensed gun dealers in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California to report to the ATF any purchases of multiple semiautomatic rifles designed to fire rounds larger than the tiny .22 caliber, since cartels favor military-style weapons like the AR-15 or AK-47. The rule was modeled on a provision of the 1968 Gun Control Act, which already mandated that all licensed gun dealers report bulk sales of handguns.

“This administration does not have the guts to build a [border] wall, but they do have the audacity to blame and register gun owners for Mexico’s problems,” Cox said.

After the rule was instituted in 2011, the NRA fought unsuccessfully to have it overturned in court.

The contretemps over the rifle-sale reporting rule came as the ill-fated “Fast and Furious” operation was blazing away as a full-scale political conflagration. The affair shook Mexican confidence in the United States as a law enforcement partner, says Eric Olson, the associate director of the Latin American Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, a foreign policy think tank.

“People in Mexico said, ‘What are you guys doing?’” Olson says. “‘You’re putting firearms into the hands of traffickers?’”

The scandal led Mexico’s president, Enrique Peña Nieto, to temporarily halt cooperation with the ATF after he was inaugurated in 2012.

With the ATF’s domestic critics also lobbing barbed questions about the bureau’s anti-smuggling efforts, federal law enforcement has taken a less aggressive approach in subsequent years. In 2016, there were just 71 federal prosecutions of cross-border firearms traffickers, fewer than half as many as four years before.

Last year, a Government Accountability Office report determined that even after “Fast and Furious,” ATF and the various border security agencies have failed to adequately coordinate their anti-gun-trafficking efforts, finding a lack of understanding as to exactly where responsibility lies for keeping guns from illegally leaving the country.

For all his preoccupation with the threats he says immigrants pose, Trump has proposed no policies that might halt the hundreds of thousands of guns that drive refugees to the border.

Instead, the president is seeking to drastically reduce American support to the Latin American nations most affected by gun violence. His White House has proposed slashing $200 million from the State Department office that administers ongoing programs from the Bush and Obama eras that finance law enforcement and violence-prevention efforts in Mexico and Central America. According to a separate document obtained by Foreign Policy in late April, Trump wants to cut foreign aid to Mexico by 50 percent, to Guatemala by 36 percent, to El Salvador by 30 percent, and to Honduras by 28 percent.

The president has also proposed gutting the White House office that reviews a wide range of cross-border smuggling issues.

The ATF, Department of Justice, and Department of Homeland Security all said in statements that the Trump administration had not directed them to change their approach to firearms trafficking. Attorney General Jeff Sessions has hosted his counterparts from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, but his office declined to comment on specifics of the meeting, or whether firearms trafficking was on the agenda.

The White House declined to comment for this story, instead providing a press release, sent out after Trump and his Mexican counterpart, Peña Nieto, spoke by phone in January, that affirmed the two countries’ commitment to combating arms trafficking. On May 18, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson hosted Mexico’s foreign minister, Luis Videgaray Caso, in Washington for the second time, saying at a joint press conference that the two diplomats had “identified fresh strategies to attack the business model of these multi-billion dollar criminal organizations with particular emphasis on cash flow and the flow of weapons.” A spokeswoman for the State Department would not specify what those fresh strategies might be.

The public statements of Trump and his cabinet secretaries notwithstanding, the president’s unprecedented ties to the gun lobby are a strong signal he is unlikely to support new measures to crack down on cross-border firearms smuggling — and may in fact support efforts to roll back restrictions the NRA has long hoped to wipe from the books.

The group may see an opportunity in the Trump administration to undo the Obama-era rule requiring gun dealers in southwest border states to report to the ATF the sales of multiple rifles, one of the few enforcement tools that directly addresses trafficking of weapons to Central America.  The NRA applauded a bill submitted this spring by Congressman Evan Jenkins, a West Virginia Republican, that would ban the ATF from imposing reporting requirements on gun dealers based on their geographic location. The legislation is under review by the House Judiciary Committee.

The rifle-reporting rule could also be reversed through executive action, an option floated in a January white paper by Ronald Turk, the deputy ATF director, which was widely viewed as a blueprint for a more NRA-friendly bureau.

Some Washington insiders with knowledge of Central America are incensed about the administration’s positions on the border, guns, and foreign assistance.

“Given that violence is a driving factor for migration,” says one Democratic Senate staffer with more than a decade of experience in the region’s affairs, the Trump team’s preferred remedies “fly in the face of logic.”

From his adopted home in Los Angeles, José Luis Hernández has tried fitfully to keep his network of disabled migrants together. It’s a difficult task, with his compatriots spread from the West Coast to suburban Maryland. He hopes the Trump administration will reconsider its policies. He wants someday to return to Honduras, but cannot if violent crime remains a menace there.

“The U.S.A. is a pretty place to come for a week as a tourist,” Hernández says. “But I miss my country.

“The promised land we’re looking for isn’t the U.S. It’s our own country,” he adds. “We don’t want to leave and risk our lives.”

Though the homicide rate in Honduras has ebbed somewhat, shootings remain rampant. On the morning this article was being prepared for publication, a 46-year-old woman in San Pedro Sula was shot repeatedly by a stranger while riding a bus. Four days earlier, in an area near the Caribbean coast, an unidentified family of three was ambushed and murdered with what police said were several high-caliber weapons. Victims of other recent gun killings include bus drivers, security guards, bricklayers, activists, and engineers. The pervasiveness of the violence leaves few people safe.  

A radical retreat from past efforts to reduce violence and the flow of American firearms to Central America could have dire ramifications. Should security in the region buckle further, the United States could find itself confronted with another massive surge of migrants like the one that dominated headlines three years ago.

“If the violence increases further, this has the potential to become a really serious refugee crisis,” says Larry Ladutke, who manages Amnesty International USA’s Central America and Mexico program. “Something along the lines of a failed state.”

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