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FOCUS: Law to Allow President to Send Armed Secret Service to Polling Places |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=20877"><span class="small">William Boardman, Reader Supported News</span></a>
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Wednesday, 14 March 2018 12:02 |
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Boardman writes: "The single sentence above, which amends current federal law, would give the president unprecedented authority to send armed Secret Service agents to any US polling place for any reason. The law allows the president to send armed Secret Service agents to every US polling place if he has enough agents."
Line to cast a ballot in Wisconsin. (photo: Reuters)

Law to Allow President to Send Armed Secret Service to Polling Places
By William Boardman, Reader Supported News
14 March 18
SECRET SERVICE PROTECTION AT POLLING PLACES.
This section shall not prevent any officer or agent of the United States Secret Service from providing armed protective services authorized under section 3056 or pursuant to a Presidential memorandum at any place where a general or special election is held. [emphasis added]
he single sentence above, which amends current federal law, would give the president unprecedented authority to send armed Secret Service agents to any US polling place for any reason. The law allows the president to send armed Secret Service agents to every US polling place if he has enough agents.
The 250-page bill containing this new authority, H.R. 2825, is the Department of Homeland Security Authorization Act, introduced in the House on June 8, 2017, by Texas Rep. Michael McCaul with eleven fellow Republican co-sponsors. On July 20, with little notice, the bill passed the House by a vote of 386 to 41 (32 Democrats and 9 Republicans), after less than an hour of scheduled debate, and went to the Senate.
The issue broke through to public attention on March 9, with a letter to the Senate’s party leaders, Republican Mitch McConnell and Democrat Chuck Schumer, from secretaries of state of both parties in 19 states, calling the Senate’s attention to “unprecedented and shocking language currently included in Section 4012 of HR 2825” that:
… allows Secret Service personnel unlimited access to polling places pursuant to the President’s direction. This is an alarming proposal which raises the possibility that armed federal agents will be patrolling neighborhood precincts and vote centers.
The signatory secretaries of state represent California, Washington, New Mexico, North Dakota, Minnesota, Missouri, Louisiana, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, Delaware, and all the New England states except New Hampshire. Their letter points out that the federal statute the bill amends (Title 18, US Code, section 592) is intended to keep “troops or armed men” away from every “place where a general or special election is held, unless such force be necessary to repel armed enemies of the United States.” The secretaries’ letter argues:
This longstanding and carefully crafted statute ensures the right of voters to cast their ballots under the limited authority of civil officers rather than law enforcement. Secretaries of State across the country agree that there is no discernable need for federal Secret Service agents to intrude, at the discretion of the president, who may also be a candidate in that election, into the thousands of citadels where democracy is enshrined. [emphasis added]
The secretaries’ letter concludes with the “humble request” that the senators remove the unchecked presidential authority from the legislation. According to the secretaries, the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee listened to their concerns, but told them that it “did not have the authority to address this important issue.”
The secretaries’ March 9 letter sparked same-day coverage in the Boston Globe that began:
President Trump would be able to dispatch Secret Service agents to polling places nationwide during a federal election, a vast expansion of executive authority, if a provision in a Homeland Security reauthorization bill remains intact.
The Globe went on to quote Massachusetts secretary of state William F. Galvin, a Democrat, castigating the proposal:
This is worthy of a Third World country…. I’m not going to tolerate people showing up to our polling places. I would not want to have federal agents showing up in largely Hispanic areas. The potential for mischief here is enormous.
The Globe followed up on March 10 with Secret Service spokesperson Catherine Milhoan, who said that the Secret Service had sought only “clarifying language” to allow agents to do their job. Milhoan referred to a non-specific incident in 2016 when armed Secret Service agents were allegedly prevented from entering a polling place. Milhoan did not explain the blanket authority granted the president to send armed Secret Service agents to any polling place.
Two days later, the Secret Service issued an unsigned, dishonest press release that relied on a false premise. The Secret Service asserted:
The intent of the U.S. Secret Service is grossly mischaracterized in a recent Boston Globe article. Our mission is apolitical as is the carrying out of our duties. The intent of a provision in a Homeland Security reauthorization bill is to simply allow us to protect those we are mandated to do so under Title 18 USC 3056 when at the election polls, and not violate the law.
This is itself a gross mischaracterization. The Globe does not address the “intent” of the Secret Service except insofar as that intent is expressed by the Secret Service’s Milhoan. No one in the Globe article accuses the Secret Service of trying to violate the law. The Secret Service obfuscates (or outright lies) about its intent by failing to explain why the president should have the power to send armed Secret Service agents to any polling place.
Then the Secret Service sort of admits that it did, maybe, sort of seek to violate the law, perhaps unwittingly. The press release gives a second version of the alleged 2016 incident where election officials questioned the lawfulness of their behavior:
In November of 2016 leading up to Election Day, while attempting to conduct a protective assignment at a polling location, Secret Service personnel encountered some reluctance to our presence and the carrying of weapons.
So if this event was before election day, the Secret Service agents were at a polling place without any protectee who was trying to vote. This circumstance would fall outside Title 18 USC 3056 cited by the Secret Service above. This is tantamount to an admission by the Secret Service that it probably was in violation of 18 USC 592, as poll workers suggested. And still none of this explains why the Secret Service think the president needs the authority to send armed Secret Service agents to any polling place anywhere.
Follow-up coverage of the letter from the secretaries of state doesn’t get to the source of this power play. ACLU lawyer Kristen Clarke compares the use of Secret Service agents at the polls to law enforcement “tactics that we saw during the Jim Crow era.” She doesn’t remind us that Florida governor Jeb Bush used the same law enforcement intimidation tactics to suppress the Florida vote in the 2000 election that made his brother president.
The likelihood that the presidential authority in the bill passed by the House was created by anything but the intent to expand the power of the presidency is almost nil. The phrase “pursuant to a Presidential memorandum” just isn’t the sort of thing people casually and unconsciously just toss off. Apparently the effort to modify the law came from the Secret Service, but they’re acting like someone else made up the language. Maybe it came from Rep. McCaul or his co-sponsors, they haven’t said. The White House hasn’t said anything, referring inquiries to the Secret Service. Senators McConnell and Schumer haven’t said anything that matters, which surprises no one. Armed Secret Service agents at polling places, who cares?
This grant of police state authority passed the House in July without a single House member speaking out, not then, or ever since. No senator has yet to raise an alarm. This is all of a piece with the political establishment’s long war on voters. The Bush voter suppression tactics of 2000 are still widespread, the Supreme Court has gutted the Voting Rights Act, and Congress has done nothing to restore it. Only a minority of Democrats show any serious care for voting rights. The result is a slow but real coup d'état against democratic processes. There is another federal law, 18 USC section 594 that makes intimidation, threatening, or coercion of voters punishable by up to one year in jail. Who in the federal government should not be incarcerated?
William M. Boardman has over 40 years experience in theatre, radio, TV, print journalism, and non-fiction, including 20 years in the Vermont judiciary. He has received honors from Writers Guild of America, Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Vermont Life magazine, and an Emmy Award nomination from the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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FOCUS: A Trump Trip to Las Vegas Adds Intrigue to the Steele Dossier |
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Wednesday, 14 March 2018 11:01 |
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Mayer writes: "Of all the allegations about Donald Trump contained in the ex-British spy Christopher Steele's infamous "dossier," the most notorious remains a secondhand report that Trump consorted with prostitutes in 2013 while staying in the Presidential suite at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, in Moscow, and that, at his request, the prostitutes urinated on a bed in which President Barack Obama and his wife had previously slept."
A new book by Michael Isikoff and David Corn includes information about Donald Trump's visit to a night club that was later shuttered for its sexually explicit theatre shows. (photo: Alexander Aleshkin/Epsilon/Getty Images)

A Trump Trip to Las Vegas Adds Intrigue to the Steele Dossier
By Jane Mayer, The New Yorker
14 March 18
f all the allegations about Donald Trump contained in the ex-British spy Christopher Steele’s infamous “dossier,” the most notorious remains a secondhand report that Trump consorted with prostitutes in 2013 while staying in the Presidential suite at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel, in Moscow, and that, at his request, the prostitutes urinated on a bed in which President Barack Obama and his wife had previously slept.
Early last year, when this allegation became public, along with much of the rest of the dossier, Trump denounced it as “crap” compiled by “sick people.” Since then, the allegation has remained uncorroborated, a fact that has given ammunition to those who want to dismiss the entire dossier as a fabrication. When it first emerged in public, the hotel-room allegation’s credibility was so hotly debated, it split the legendary investigative-reporting team of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein, who won a joint Pulitzer Prize for their exposure of the Watergate scandal. Bernstein, who helped CNN break the news of the Steele dossier, last January, argued that it was “not fake news.” But Woodward dismissed it as “garbage,” a comment that won him a thank-you note from Trump.
In a new book being published on Tuesday, “Russian Roulette: The Inside Story of Putin’s War on America and the Election of Donald Trump,” the co-authors Michael Isikoff and David Corn report an anecdote suggesting that so-called golden showers were a form of entertainment familiar to some in Trump’s circle, even if not necessarily to Trump himself. According to the authors, both of whom are veteran, Washington-based investigative reporters, in the early-morning hours of June 15, 2013, some five months before the alleged Moscow incident, Trump visited a Las Vegas night club called the Act that was infamous for its sexually explicit theatre shows. Among the skits regularly performed at the Act were two in which semi-nude women would simulate urination onstage. As Isikoff and Corn note, it is unclear whether these skits were performed on the night that Trump visited the club. But court records confirm that they were in the club’s regular repertoire.
The reason that court records exist at all is that the Act’s obscene entertainment was, at the time of Trump’s visit, the target of a joint undercover investigation by the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the club’s landlord, the Palazzo hotel and casino—which is owned by Sheldon Adelson, a major Republican Party donor. A few months after Trump visited the Act, a Nevada state judge issued an injunction against the club, shutting down its “lewd” and “offensive” performances. In the course of the legal wrangling, investigators submitted detailed descriptions of the the Act’s shows. These, according to court records, included “simulated masturbation, simulated use of narcotics, use of dildos, strap-on penises, simulated defecation, and simulated urination.” In one skit, titled “Hot for Teacher,” an actor in the role of a professor would write an obscene title for a lecture on a blackboard, after which female actors purporting to be college girls would disrobe and stand over the professor, appearing to urinate on him, before revealing a water bottle. In another skit, according to the court records, two women would drink from champagne flutes and snort a white powdery substance, after which they would undress, and one would simulate urinating on the other, who would catch the liquid in two wine glasses and then drink it.
Isikoff and Corn note that the Act closed after the judge ruled against it, and that they were unable to determine which skits were performed the night that Trump attended, or even whether Trump paid any attention to what was onstage. Instead, Isikoff and Corn write that Trump’s focus that night was apparently the cementing of a business relationship with one of his companions, Emin Agalarov, an Azerbaijani pop singer. Trump, the authors write, was wooing Agalarov’s wealthy and Kremlin-connected family in pursuit of potential Russian business deals. “Russian Roulette” quotes Rob Goldstone, a British publicist for the pop singer, who was also present at the Act that night, recalling Trump extolling his plans. Trump reportedly told Emin, “We’re going to have a great relationship.” Later that day, Trump announced that the Agalarov family would partner with him in presenting the 2013 Miss Universe competition in Moscow. It was during the Miss Universe competition, in November of 2013, according to the Steele dossier’s sources, that Trump allegedly engaged the prostitutes at the Ritz-Carlton. (The White House did not respond to a request for comment about the book’s allegations concerning Trump’s 2013 visit to the Las Vegas night club.)
A source close to Steele, who declined to be identified, described the overlap between the Act’s performances and the Ritz-Carlton allegation as “interesting.” He acknowledged that for Steele, whose life and work I recently investigated for The New Yorker, the details in the new book are likely to be “something of a two-edged sword.” As he put it, “There’s a risk that there was some conflation of the story,” meaning a blurring of what happened at the Act and what allegedly happened at the Moscow hotel. But at the same time, he noted, “It does suggest that there is some kind of track record here. This behavior was not unheard of in Trump’s circle. So in that sense, it adds to the credibility of the dossier.” (In “Russian Roulette,” Corn and Isikoff report that Steele would tell colleagues his confidence in the Ritz-Carlton story was “fifty-fifty.” He treated everything in the dossier as raw intelligence material—not proven fact.)
“Russian Roulette” also sheds more light on Steele’s sources—whose identities he has fiercely guarded. According to Isikoff and Corn, Steele’s sources include two figures whose expertise may be questionable. One source for the “golden showers” allegation, according to Isikoff and Corn, was Sergei Millian, a mysterious Belarusian-American businessman whose claims to have been an intimate of Trump and his circle have been disputed by those close to Trump. The authors assert that Millian was an “unwitting” source for Steele—that he spoke about Trump to an interlocutor without realizing that his statements were being conveyed to the former British spy. Millian, however, has subsequently appeared on Russian television to deny that he has ever had any damning information about the President. The Steele dossier, the authors write, “described Millian as a Trump intimate, but there was no public evidence he was close to the mogul.” (The Steele dossier, however, did cite several other sources for the Ritz-Carlton allegation, whom Corn and Isikoff don’t mention, including a “member of the staff at the hotel” and “a female staffer at the hotel when Trump stayed there.”) The other unconventional source, according to the authors, is an unnamed woman whom they describe as “the paramour of a Kremlin insider.” In other words, as they put it, some of the incendiary allegations against the President of the United States contained in the Steele dossier may have begun literally as “pillow talk.”

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The Political Revolution Is Moving Beyond Progressive States |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=15102"><span class="small">Bernie Sanders, Reader Supported News</span></a>
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Wednesday, 14 March 2018 08:44 |
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Sanders writes: "I want to tell you about a very exciting trip that I took last weekend to Texas and Arizona. That follows the trip we took several weeks ago to Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. Of these six states, Trump won five. And, in Illinois, where Trump lost, progressives are taking on the old and moribund Democratic machine."
Bernie Sanders. (photo: Jewel Samad/Getty Images)

The Political Revolution Is Moving Beyond Progressive States
By Bernie Sanders, Reader Supported News
14 March 18
want to tell you about a very exciting trip that I took last weekend to Texas and Arizona. That follows the trip we took several weeks ago to Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. Of these six states, Trump won five. And, in Illinois, where Trump lost, progressives are taking on the old and moribund Democratic machine.
The very good news is: the political revolution is on the move, not only in progressive states but in conservative areas as well. You have heard me say it a million times. This country will not change if the Democratic Party continues to ignore half the states in this country, including some of the poorest.
We're not going to transform the politics of the United States by just doing fundraisers with wealthy people in New York and California or starting Super PACs funded by special interests. We have got to take the fight for economic, social, racial and environmental justice to every county in every state in this country.
And the good news is that is exactly what is beginning to happen.*This year, there are more candidates than ever on the ballot - in progressive and conservative areas - who support Medicare for all, free tuition at public colleges and universities, a $15 minimum wage, gun safety legislation and our entire progressive agenda.*
In many instances, these candidates are fighting against a political establishment that tells them they cannot win running on a progressive agenda, and they are fighting against a financial elite who will spend anything to stop them.*We should work as hard as we can to elect those candidates, and I intend to - just as I did this past weekend. But I cannot do it alone. So I have to ask:*
That's what the political revolution is about and that's what, with your support, we're doing. And, trust me, it's not me alone. Hundreds of volunteers helped on this trip and I spoke alongside of great progressives like Jim Hightower of Texas and Nina Turner, the national president of Our Revolution.
Do you want to hear about success? In Texas earlier last week, progressive candidates have either won or advanced to runoffs in 19 out of 27 races that were contested, and voter turnout shot way up statewide.
On our visit to Texas we had thousands of people come out in San Antonio and Lubbock. Yes. In Lubbock, one of the most conservative areas in Texas, where Trump won 2-1, we had a standing room only crowd of 1,300. This is a place where the Democratic Party is incredibly weak and where the local newspaper claimed no progressive rally like ours had taken place in a "long time, if ever."
In Lubbock, 46 percent of the population is Latino or African American and the overwhelming majority of the community is poor or working class. Yet like in many other rural parts of the country, the Democratic Party has conceded the area and right-wing Republicans keep winning. That's pathetic, and we're in the process of changing that.
And what was our message in Trump country? It was that the political pundits are wrong when they say there are "blue states" like Vermont, "red states" like Texas, and "purple states" like Arizona, and that we need to be "realistic" in our goals because there are big differences between them all.
*Well, I don't believe that for a second and neither should you. I believe that in every state in this country, working people are struggling. There must be - and there will be - a progressive government that fights for all of us, not just the 1 percent.*
Because no matter where you live, the vast majority of people don't believe in a Republican agenda that provides huge tax breaks to billionaires while cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
No matter where you live, the vast majority of the people understand that in the wealthiest country in the history of the world people should not be forced to work two or three jobs to pay the bills because we have a national minimum wage of $7.25 an hour - a starvation wage. They also understand that women should not be earning 80 percent or less of what men make for doing the same work.
No matter where you live, we all get sick, we all have accidents and we all need health care. And we now see a growing majority in this country who understand that health care is a right, not a privilege. We also see more and more people who want a Medicare-for-all, single-payer system.
No matter where you live, the majority of people understand that is is insane and counterproductive to the best interests of our country that hundreds of thousands of bright people cannot afford to go to college and that millions of others leave school with a mountain of debt that burdens them for decades.
No matter where you live, more and more Americans, including gun owners, understand that we need to do everything possible to end the unspeakable level of gun violence that is currently taking place. They know that, no matter what the NRA thinks, we need to pass commonsense gun safety legislation which keeps guns out of the hands of people who should not have them.
The final stop of our trip was Phoenix, Arizona. When I arrived on Saturday evening a young women working at the hotel I was staying at told me something that should shock and disgust you. In 2016, she waited in line for seven hours to vote in Arizona. Imagine that - seven hours in line to participate in our democracy. That she waited seven hours in line to vote for me was extremely humbling. But what about all those who couldn't wait, because of their families or their jobs? Every one of us should work to end voter suppression in Arizona and many other states across the country. We need a vigorous democracy in which every single person can participate in our electoral process.
At our rally the next day thousands of people came out to talk about the importance of comprehensive immigration reform that is based on justice, not racism; the urgent need to ensure health care is a right for every man, woman and child in this country; and the importance of energizing and electing progressives in Arizona and all across the country in 2018.
We can elect progressives in Arizona in 2018. We can elect them in Texas as well. We can elect them in New York and North Dakota, Mississippi, Kansas, South Carolina and Idaho.
And we must. Because the continued decline of the middle class, grotesque levels of income and wealth inequality, disastrous trade policies and an inadequate educational system affect all of us.
This year, I am going to campaign hard to elect progressives in communities Democrats have long written off. But I cannot do it alone. I need your help to make it happen.
We are at a critical moment for the future of the Democratic Party, and for our country. As progressives we are making progress, but much more needs to be done. Trump is trying to divide our country up through racism, bigotry and xenophobia. We are bringing people together in the fight for justice and dignity for all.
Make a $50 donation to support my work traveling the country and rallying people to support progressive causes and candidates? I would not ask if it were not so important.
Thank you for your support in realizing that goal.
In solidarity,
Bernie Sanders

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Syria's War of Ethnic Cleansing: Kurds Face a Massacre in Afrin |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=36166"><span class="small">Patrick Cockburn, The Independent</span></a>
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Wednesday, 14 March 2018 08:31 |
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Cockburn writes: "Syrian Arab militiamen leading the Turkish attack on Afrin in northern Syria are threatening to massacre its Kurdish population unless they convert to the variant of Islam espoused by Isis and al-Qaeda."
Twenty-year old Kifah al-Moussa, a Syrian Arab woman living among the Kurds of Afrin province, was working on a chicken farm in the village of Maryameen when a Turkish aircraft bombed the building at midday on 21 January, wounding her in the chest. When she recovered consciousness, she found eight people from one family lying dead around her. (photo: Yara Ismail)

Syria's War of Ethnic Cleansing: Kurds Face a Massacre in Afrin
By Patrick Cockburn, The Independent
14 March 18
The Wars in Syria: In the final part of his series from Syria, Patrick Cockburn reveals how all-out sieges like Eastern Ghouta and Afrin are bringing forced demographic change to the whole country
yrian Arab militiamen leading the Turkish attack on Afrin in northern Syria are threatening to massacre its Kurdish population unless they convert to the variant of Islam espoused by Isis and al-Qaeda. In the past such demands have preceded the mass killings of sectarian and ethnic minorities in both Syria and Iraq.
In one video a militia fighter flanked by others describes the Kurds as “infidels” and issues a stark warning, saying "by Allah, if you repent and come back to Allah, then know that you are our brothers. But if you refuse, then we see that your heads are ripe, and that it's time for us to pluck them." Though the Kurds in Afrin are Sunni Muslims, Isis and al-Qaeda traditionally punish those who fail to subscribe to their beliefs as heretics deserving death.
“The video is 100 per cent authentic,” said Rami Abdulrahman, who heads the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights which released it, in an interview with The Independent. He adds that he is very concerned about the fate of some Yazidi villages in Afrin captured by the advancing Turkish forces, saying he has seen videos taken by the militiamen themselves in one of which “an elderly Yazidi man is questioned by them, asking him how many times he prays a day.”
Such interrogations of Yazidis by Isis to prove that they were not Muslims often preceded the killings, rapes and the taking of Yazidi women as sex slaves when Isis seized Yazidi areas in northern Iraq in 2014. Mr Abdulrahman, who is the leading human rights monitor in Syria with a network of informants throughout the country, says he is worried that international attention is entirely focused on the Syrian army assault on Eastern Ghouta and “nobody is talking about” the potential slaughter of the Kurds and other minorities in Afrin.
He says that the two situations are similar since “President Bashar al-Assad’s forces have taken 60 per cent of Ghouta and [President Recep Tayyip] Erdogan’s forces have taken 60 per cent of Afrin.” He says that as many as one million Kurds may be threatened and adds that it is becoming extremely difficult for them to escape from Afrin because Syrian government checkpoints on the only road leading south to Aleppo “are demanding bribes of up to $4,000 per family to let people through.”
Mr Abdulrahman points to growing evidence drawn from videos taken by themselves of militiamen claiming to be members of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) that the units advancing ahead of regular Turkish troops are extreme jihadis. This has previously been asserted by a former Isis member in an interview published by The Independent last month who said that many of his former comrades had been recruited and retrained by the Turkish military. He said that Isis recruits had been instructed by Turkish trainers not to use their traditional tactics, such as the of extensive use of car bombs, because this would identify them as terrorists. He suspected that Isis fighters would be used as cannon fodder in Turkey’s war against the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and then discarded.
As the Turkish army closes in on Afrin and the Syrian army penetrates deeply into the opposition stronghold of Eastern Ghouta, people in both areas fear that they will be the victims of enforced demographic change. One Kurdish observer in Iraq said that he thought Mr Erdogan, who has claimed that the majority in Afrin is not Kurdish, will “bring in Turkmen and others to replace the Kurdish population."
Isis is particularly hostile to the US-backed YPG, as its most effective enemy which drove it out of a quarter of Syrian territory and captured the de facto Isis capital of Raqqa last October after a four-month siege.
As Mr Abdulrahman says, the sieges of Afrin and Eastern Ghouta have much in common, though the number of those trapped in Afrin may be larger. Motives for refusing to leave are also much the same. “I will never leave Ghouta,” said Haytham Bakkar, an anti-government journalist living there, speaking just as the present Syrian Army assault was getting underway. “We have lived here for hundreds and thousands of years. Here our grandparents lived. Here are our houses and tombs. We were born here and we will die here. Our souls and roots are here.”
Bakkar says that most people in Eastern Ghouta are convinced that their departure is part of a broader government plan to make drastic demographic changes whereby their property would be given to others. He says that even if people survived the dangerous journey out of the area, they did not want “to watch TV news and see strangers living in our homes.”
Kurds make a similar calculation, but it is also becoming extremely dangerous for them to try to flee. Precedents have already been set for ethnic and sectarian cleansing all over Syria since 2011 as those in control oust members of other communities.
The YPG is a formidable force and the YPG spokesman Nouri Mahmoud says that the group has 10,000 fighters in the enclave who would fight to the end. He says that Kurds are already being displaced and “in one village alone 600 people were told to go.” He said that the Kurds feared a genocide was in the making and complained that “the international media focus on Eastern Ghouta has given the Turks the opportunity to step up their attack on Afrin without the rest of the world paying much attention”. The Kurdish authorities are trying to publicise the sufferings of civilians in Afrin, but are so far not having much success.
In the long term – and possibly in the short term – Afrin may prove to be indefensible. It is surrounded by Turkish forces and their FSA allies who are vastly superior in numbers and heavy weapons and are able to use air power and artillery without opposition.
None of the foreign players in the Syrian crisis show any sign of intervening against Turkey. The Turks were able to invade Afrin on 20 January because Russia decided it would no longer defend its airspace as it had been doing previously. Kurdish leaders say they believe that Russia, Iran and Turkey have agreed that Turkey will get Afrin, possibly in exchange for the Turks agreeing to drop their support for the one big remaining anti-Assad enclave in Idlib.
The Turkish offensive against the Kurds in Afrin will not end when it falls, but its elimination may set the stage for further Turkish attacks against Kurdish-held territory further east. This will bring the Turks into a confrontation with the Washington which will try mediate, but, if US forces are to stay in Syria, then they will still need the Kurds as their one ally on the ground. But, if the fall of Afrin is accompanied by mass killings and ethnic cleansing, then the war in northern Syria is about to get a whole lot worse.

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