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FOCUS: The Endgame for Trump Comes Into View Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=6853"><span class="small">Frank Rich, New York Magazine</span></a>   
Friday, 24 August 2018 11:14

Rich writes: "There have been so many times when Trump was doomed, dating at least as far back as his denigration of John McCain's war heroism three summers ago, that it would be foolish to declare any new horror the final blow. But I do believe, as I wrote last summer, that Trump's path to 'a premature exit from the White House in disgrace' is ‘on a comparable timeline' to Nixon's."

Protesters demonstrate against President Trump in New York City. (photo: Spencer Platt/Getty)
Protesters demonstrate against President Trump in New York City. (photo: Spencer Platt/Getty)


The Endgame for Trump Comes Into View

By Frank Rich, New York Magazine

24 August 18

 

ost weeks, New York Magazine writer-at-large Frank Rich speaks with contributor Alex Carp about the biggest stories in politics and culture. Today, the fallout for Trump from Michael Cohen’s guilty plea and Paul Manafort’s conviction on multiple felonies.

When you looked back on Watergate last summer, you found that the scandal unraveled incredibly slowly until, in August 1974, Nixon’s presidency collapsed all at once. This week, Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort was convicted on multiple counts of fraud and Michael Cohen, his personal lawyer and fixer, pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations he says he committed “at the direction of the candidate.” Have we reached the August 1974 of the Trump presidency?

There have been so many times when Trump was doomed, dating at least as far back as his denigration of John McCain’s war heroism three summers ago, that it would be foolish to declare any new horror the final blow. But I do believe, as I wrote last summer, that Trump’s path to “a premature exit from the White House in disgrace” is “on a comparable timeline” to Nixon’s. The tumult of August 2018 hasn’t finished off his presidency, but the endgame looks closer by the day. We  know we’ve reached a nadir when the president’s lawyer is reduced to claiming that “truth isn’t truth” and even a lowlife crook like Michael Cohen can take the moral high road by professing he’d rather go to prison than be “dirtied” by a Trump pardon.

It is important to remember that the unrelenting lockstep loyalty of the feckless GOP leadership and the party’s base to Trump are not indicators of his fate. An occasional outlier in the Jeff Flake vein aside, Nixon’s party was wholly loyal to him too. Like today’s Vichy Republicans, they remained loyal despite the indictments of Cabinet members and aides as close to Nixon as Manafort, Cohen, and Michael Flynn have been to Trump. They remained loyal after the nation was riveted by the devastating Watergate hearings of the summer of 1973, which portrayed all the president’s men as counterparts to the mobsters seen in the previous year’s Hollywood hit The Godfather. They remained loyal even that fall, when Nixon’s firing of the special prosecutor in the “Saturday Night Massacre” attempted to blowtorch the Constitution and the rule of law.

As a counsel to the House Judiciary Committee during the 1974 impeachment inquiry pointed out in a Times op-ed piece ten days ago, Nixon’s defenders routinely dismissed Watergate investigations as a political “witch hunt” intended to reverse the Democrats’ 1972 electoral defeat. As late as the end of July 1974 — less than two weeks before Nixon’s August 9 helicopter departure from the White House lawn — most Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee voted against all articles of impeachment. Many Republicans on the committee continued to support him even after the August 5 release of the “smoking gun” tape revealing that Nixon had ordered a cover up of the Watergate crimes. Had the Democrats not controlled both houses of Congress — and had the era’s Nixon-sympathizing conservative Southern Democrats not finally turned on him — Nixon might have held on until a few months more, until November 1974. But no longer than that. The Democrats gained 49 additional House seats and four Senate seats in the midterms. His doom was assured.

With all the debate about whether Trump could or should be impeached this very minute — a wholly theoretical debate as long as the GOP controls Congress — we tend to forget that Nixon was never tried for impeachment. He quit once he realized he didn’t have the votes to survive such a trial and when he no doubt realized that he was in criminal jeopardy. (A fear that would only be alleviated when his successor, Gerald Ford, granted him a pardon.) Trump, unlike Nixon, is out of touch with reality. He doesn’t know how to count votes, and he believes he can defy the law with impunity. (Nixon, a lawyer, could only lie to himself about his criminal exposure up to a point.) But, whether Trump recognizes it or not, the fact remains that his main and perhaps only hope for clinging to office is that Republicans hold the House in November. Polls — and the history of midterm elections inflicting damage against the party occupying the White House even during non-criminal presidencies — tell us that a blue wave is more likely.

What would happen then could be any combination of developments including impeachment. Nonstop congressional investigations will attempt to illuminate every dark corner of an administration in which the kleptocracy extends from the Trump family to most Cabinet departments. Those close to Trump, both in his family and in his immediate circle, will fear for their futures, both legally and financially. The GOP and the Trump Organization alike will be on the ropes, and in full panic. This is evident from the wrongdoing already apparent — indeed, already the subject of indictments and guilty pleas. Yet to be factored in, of course, are the unknown findings of the Robert Mueller investigation, which could include not only treasonous conspiracies with the Russians to steal an election but additional crimes that beggar the imagination.

If there is a shocking upset GOP victory in November, then all bets are off: America is in worse trouble than we already think and possibly in an existential fight for survival.

But the more plausible scenario is that Trump, even if he has to be pushed kicking-and-screaming by Ivanka and the possible jailbirds Donald Jr. and Jared, gets out of Dodge. As with Nixon, his administration is most likely not to end with impeachment but with a self-pitying and self-justifying resignation in which Trump lashes out against both Republicans and Democrats, declares another ersatz “win,” and flees.

Up until the ship of state hits the iceberg, the Vichy Republicans will not hit the lifeboats. Trump’s loyal supporters will remain loyal even then, still chanting, as they did during the president’s West VIrginia rally this week, “Lock her up!” and “Drain the swamp!” (Polls found that a quarter of the country still supported Nixon even when he resigned.) The exact timing remains unknown, and a little more perseverance and patience in the face of the torrent of Trump indignities will be required. But when this White House collapses, it will happen fast. As the Washington reporter Elizabeth Drew, who covered Watergate for The New Yorker, would conclude, “In retrospect, the denouement appeared inevitable, but it certainly didn’t feel like that at the time.”


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Unindicted Co-Conspirator Again in White House: A Turning Point in American History Print
Friday, 24 August 2018 08:35

Cole writes: "Historians will mark August 21, 2018, as a turning point in American history. President Donald Trump's personal lawyer pleaded guilty to 8 counts of criminal wrongdoing that could carry a sentence of up to 65 years."

President Trump's former personal lawyer. (photo: Getty)
President Trump's former personal lawyer. (photo: Getty)


Unindicted Co-Conspirator Again in White House: A Turning Point in American History

By Juan Cole, Informed Comment

24 August 18

 

istorians will mark August 21, 2018, as a turning point in American history.

President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer pleaded guilty to 8 counts of criminal wrongdoing that could carry a sentence of up to 65 years.

Most significantly, he pleaded guilty to having attempted illegally to interfere in an election “in coordination with and at the direction of a federal candidate for office.”

AFP writes,

    “Just days before the election, Cohen paid $130,000 to porn star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about her past with Trump.

    He also was involved in buying for $150,000 the rights to the story of Playboy model Karen McDougal about her alleged affair with Trump.

    Those actions, which involved shell companies and offshore entities controlled by Cohen, got him into legal trouble over banking, tax and campaign finance laws.

    Cohen initially said he used his own money to pay Daniels and was not reimbursed. Trump, who first denied knowing anything about the payment, has since conceded that Cohen was paid back.”

Although Cohen was involved in a crime in preventing information from surfacing relevant to the election by basically bribing eyewitnesses, Trump’s crime was not exactly the same. If you considered getting his ex-lovers to remain quiet to be a campaign expense, he would have been within his rights to spend money on it. Trump’s crime would be in not reporting it to the Federal Election Commission.

While some are arguing that neglecting to report a couple hundred thousands of dollars in campaign expenses is a relatively minor crime, that is not really true. Former presidential candidate John Edwards was prosecuted for similar payments, to his lover Rielle Hunter, and the only reason the Federal case failed was that prosecutors couldn’t prove the money was paid to keep the public from knowing about the affair, as opposed to keeping Mrs. Edwards in the dark. But given the timing of the payment to Ms. Daniels, and given the knowledge and cooperativeness of Mr. Cohen, prosecutors who brought Trump up on charges would almost certainly prevail.

Trump is, of course, unlikely to be put on trial while in the presidency. He could, however, end up being deposed, just as Bill Clinton was, and then he would either have to admit the affair and the payoff or continue to lie about them. The latter course of action, given Cohen’s own plea, would certainly be perjury.

If Democrats can take the House in November, they could launch an investigation that would throw up further evidence for Trump law-breaking, or which might tempt him to continue lying, which could become perjury if he did it in formal circumstances.

The crux may be a matter of public opinion more than legal, in the end. Above all, the likelihood that Trump’s evangelical base can go on pretending he doesn’t have serial affairs, and can go on denying the swampy corruption at the center of this administration, is low. And without that base, Trump has almost nothing.

Trump has been clever about having the people around him take the fall, a fate he likely will inflict on his own son, Don Jr., with regard to the meeting with the Russian government agent Natalia Veselnitskaya at Trump Tower in summer of 2016.

But with Cohen’s plea, for the first time someone has laid a hand on Trump himself. There are almost certainly emails or recordings to back Cohen up.

For the first time since Watergate, the president is an unindicted co-conspirator in a crime under continued investigation. Whether or not impeachment is ultimately in the offing, Trump’s crippled presidency just became a quadriplegiac and is now living on borrowed time, one way or another. And, it seems certain that when he goes out of office, he is going to prison for crimes committed in and prosecuted by New York state.


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Poisoning the Planet, Trolling the Libs Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=37790"><span class="small">Amanda Marcotte, Salon</span></a>   
Thursday, 23 August 2018 12:54

Marcotte writes: "Even though Scott Pruitt was finally driven out as head of the Environmental Protection Agency, his replacement, Andrew Wheeler, hasn't missed a beat."

The coal-fired Plant Scherer in Juliette, Georgia, is one of the nation's top carbon dioxide emitters. (photo: Branden Camp/AP)
The coal-fired Plant Scherer in Juliette, Georgia, is one of the nation's top carbon dioxide emitters. (photo: Branden Camp/AP)


Poisoning the Planet, Trolling the Libs

By Amanda Marcotte, Salon

23 August 18

 

ven though Scott Pruitt was finally driven out as head of the Environmental Protection Agency, his replacement, Andrew Wheeler, hasn't missed a beat. Wheeler is steadfastly pursuing the great white whale Pruitt was hired, above all other things, to destroy: Barack Obama's Clean Power Plan. It's a painstakingly crafted and thoroughly litigated policy aimed at drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the nation's power plants, and it was a critical part of the agreement known as the Paris Accords, which, of course, Trump has promised to abandon.

That the Clean Power Plan was Moby Dick to Pruitt's Captain Ahab is not overstating the case. Before Trump tapped Pruitt to be the EPA head, he was Oklahoma attorney general and took the lead in the legal assault by red states on the Clean Power Plan. Pruitt basically argued that the strength of the Obama policy — that it allowed power plants flexibility in how they reduced emissions so long as they met their goals — was what made its enforcement illegal.

Now, under Wheeler, the EPA has rolled out a proposal to replace the Clean Power Plan with a plan that props up the coal industry, even though coal is the dirtiest of all energy sources and is falling short in a market that has moved decisively toward more efficient methods.

This is a uniquely bad idea, as former Sierra Club Executive Director Carl Pope argued in an opinion piece for Salon on Wednesday. It's obviously more about pleasing wealthy donors than helping the American economy, which makes the misleadingly named "Affordable Clean Energy" rule a tough sell. So the Trump administration is turning to its favorite methods to sell the public — or at least its own base voters — on their bad ideas: Gaslighting, lying and, above all, trolling.

This was made clear on Monday, the day before the EPA announced the new plan, when E&E News published a leaked document from the EPA outlining the agency's talking points. The sheet is a stunning display of dishonest tactics, such as focusing on the cost of implementing the Clean Power Plan while ignoring the high costs created by pollution and climate change, and portraying coal as somehow a forward-looking energy source in place of the cleaner energy forms the entire rest of the world is working toward.

What's particularly telling is the way that the document cynically exploits progressive concerns about racial equality in service of trying to sell out the planet's health to a few rich coal barons.

The Clean Power Plan "would have hurt minorities and senior citizens disproportionally," the document claims, suggesting that the plan would put millions of people of color out of work and "would increase Black poverty by 23 percent and Hispanic poverty by 26 percent."

“On what authority does Trump have to speak on behalf of people of color?" exclaimed Michelle Romero, the deputy director of Green for All, an environmental initiative focused on economic and racial justice.

Romero described the statistics offered by Wheeler's EPA as nonsense, arguing that the "dirty economy actually costs us more" and saying that "struggling families and low-income communities are subsidizing the cost for big polluters to continue to profit."

There's substantial evidence to back that argument up. As Martin Luther King III of the Drum Major Institute pointed out in The Washington Post in 2015, the National Black Chamber of Commerce (source of those EPA numbers) is not a legitimate racial justice organization. It's an astroturf organization propped up by money from fossil-fuel companies like ExxonMobil, that exists largely to sow confusion and exploit racial inequality to push a pro-pollution agenda. The study itself has been thoroughly discredited by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

As Romero notes, the ugly truth is that it costs taxpayers, especially low-income and middle-class taxpayers, a fortune to prop up polluting industries. As David Roberts of Vox reported last month, fossil fuel in the U.S. is subsidized to the tune of $20 billion a year in direct government subsidies — a number that leaves out billions in indirect subsidies, as well as the public costs of the health consequences and environmental damage caused by pollution and climate change, both of which impact low-income communities and communities of color more seriously. The effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico alone should make that memorably clear.

In addition, Romero pointed out, "the clean energy economy creates more jobs overall," so even from the narrower perspective of immediate impact on jobs and poverty, the move toward cleaner sources is better. This is doubly true if the concern is racial diversity, as the emerging alternative energy economy could create new opportunities that didn't exist before.

Pushing back with all these facts is wasted effort, in a sense, because there's no reason to think that the invocation of racial and economic justice in this document was in any way offered in good faith. It's perhaps better to understand the comments about racial minorities as a form of trolling. It's a classic right-wing strategy: "Wait: I thought you libs cared about jobs for minorities!"

Factual evidence barely matters when it comes to this strategy. All Trump and his team need to do is give their base — which has the same need to breathe clean air and survive natural disasters as everyone else — a reason to get on board. So the administration frames this as yet another opportunity to "own the libs" with arguments that are designed to frustrate more than clarify. This is evidently so appealing an idea that it convinces conservatives to squelch legitimate concerns about subsidizing a failing and inefficient industry that is poisoning the planet.

This strategy is being deployed by Trump himself in selling this pro-pollution plan to the public. During his rally in West Virginia on Tuesday night, Trump went on a bizarre tangent about how coal is "indestructible stuff" and how, "in times of war . . . you can blow up those windmills." Yes, the president of the United States appeared to be suggesting that coal mines or coal-fired power plants are impervious to bombs.

Last week, he made similar arguments at a New York fundraiser, adding another weird tangent about how wind turbines "kill so many birds."

These arguments are dumb, and arguably are meant to be — they're more about provoking and antagonizing the opposition than making legitimate, concrete points.

Whether these moronic talking points are about birds or bombs, the idea is to draw liberals into a pointless argument until everyone looks like an idiot and the right-wingers win by default because their only true goal was to drag others down to their level.

None of this, it is worth noting, makes any positive case for the "Affordable Clean Energy" plan. That's because that's essentially impossible: It's neither affordable nor clean. So the strategy is to throw up a bunch of distracting arguments and idiotic tangents and entice conservatives to get on board by offering opportunities to own the libs and demonstrate tribal loyalty, especially if they ignore that gnawing feeling that maybe it's wrong to poison the planet for the children they keep insisting are the future.

This is, by the way, how Republicans under Trump hope to survive the midterm elections. They can't run on their policies, like taking away people's health care or giving billions in tax giveaways to the rich, since those things are unpopular and destructive. So they churn out a steady stream of race-baiting arguments about MS-13 and kneeling NFL players and nonexistent Facebook censorship and other nonsense whose only purpose is to troll the left and distract from the real issues. The only question remaining is whether it will work in November.


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The Opposition to Brett Kavanaugh Just Got a Big Ray of Hope Print
Thursday, 23 August 2018 12:54

Millhiser writes: "To keep Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh off the Court, Democrats need to solve a devilish puzzle. Nevertheless, one of the more conservative members of their caucus recently gave them reason to hope that this puzzle can be solved."

Senator Ted Cruz and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. (photo: Getty)
Senator Ted Cruz and Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. (photo: Getty)


The Opposition to Brett Kavanaugh Just Got a Big Ray of Hope

By Ian Millhiser, ThinkProgress

23 August 18


Trump can't count on conservative Democrats to push his Supreme Court nominee over the edge.

o keep Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh off the Court, Democrats need to solve a devilish puzzle. Nevertheless, one of the more conservative members of their caucus recently gave them reason to hope that this puzzle can be solved.

On the one hand, Democrats need to convince at least one of Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AR), both of whom are nominally pro-choice, to admit that Kavanaugh will be the fifth vote to kill Roe v. Wade. Collins and Murkowski are both likely to vote for Kavanaugh — Collins in particular appears to be in deep, deep denial that any member of the Court opposes Roe — but they are the Democrats’ best shot of picking up Republican votes in a closely divided Senate.

Meanwhile, Democrats have to hold onto the votes of several conservative members of their own caucus — senators like Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) — who are running for reelection in red states. These senators can’t exactly go back to their voters and explain that they opposed Kavanaugh because he is a Republican partisan.

And Democrats have to do all of this while making sure Republicans do not pick up enough Senate seats this November to confirm Kavanaugh next year. It’s the political equivalent of trying to draw an inside straight while simultaneously picking up the spare on a 7-10 split.

And yet, Democrats got a hopeful sign on Wednesday that at least one of the pieces they need to stop Kavanaugh is falling into place.

Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) is the most improbable political creature — a Democratic senator from blood-red Alabama. He often votes with conservatives like Manchin and Heitkamp. So his statements can be a useful gauge of how the Democratic Party’s right flank is thinking.

During an interview with MSNBC’s Ali Velshi on Wednesday, Jones called for Senate Republicans to “push a pause button” on the Kavanaugh confirmation process and delay the nominee’s confirmation hearings, which are currently scheduled for the beginning of September. Notably, Jones said that this view is shared by “everybody else around here on the Democratic side of the aisle.”

Jones cited two reasons to delay the hearing. He initially pointed to the fact that the National Archives says it will not produce a large number of documents relating to Kavanaugh’s time as a top aide to President George W. Bush until October. When pressed by Velshi, Jones also pointed to the fact that the president who nominated Kavanuagh “is under a cloud” after Trump’s former campaign chairman and former attorney were both convicted of federal crimes this week.

Conservative Democrats, in other words, can now offer two process-based objections to Kavanaugh that allow them to oppose his confirmation without having to dive down into the nominee’s political views. And if Democrats can hold their entire Senate caucus together, the confirmation process starts to get very interesting.

Republicans hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, but Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is very ill and is unlikely to leave Arizona to vote on this nomination. That means that, if all 49 Democrats hold together, either Collins or Murkowski has the power to single-handedly block this confirmation.

Collins is in a particular bind. She is a senator from Maine, a blue state, and is up for reelection in 2020. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, it is very likely that the Supreme Court will either overrule Roe v. Wade outright or strip it of any real force by the time Collins faces her voters again.

Susan Collins, in other words, can either run in a blue state as the woman who saved Roe v. Wade, or she can run as the woman who killed Roe v. Wade.


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Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz and the Fight for America Print
Thursday, 23 August 2018 12:54

Hooks writes: "Ted Cruz is misunderstood, Ted Cruz tells me."

Ted Cruz at a court hearing and Beto O'Rourke in El Paso, Texas. (photo: Bill Clark/Roll Call; Pierre Aguirre/Getty)
Ted Cruz at a court hearing and Beto O'Rourke in El Paso, Texas. (photo: Bill Clark/Roll Call; Pierre Aguirre/Getty)


Beto O'Rourke vs. Ted Cruz and the Fight for America

By Christopher Hooks, GQ

23 August 18


Down in deep-red Texas, a fresh-faced liberal named Beto O’Rourke has a shot at beating Ted Cruz. But huge as that would be, the race has grander implications: It helps explain all the giddy hopes and secret fears of Democrats everywhere.

ed Cruz is misunderstood, Ted Cruz tells me.

Out behind Mama Jack's Road House Cafe, the most prominent eatery in Kountze, Texas, the senator is hunkered down in the passenger seat of a Texas-size pickup truck, watching through Ray-Bans as his staffers re-arrange vehicles in his traveling caravan. It's the last stop on a five-day campaign tour—Cruz's tepid counterpoint to the marathon barnstorming that his Democratic opponent, Beto O'Rourke, has become famous for.

At hundreds of town halls, in the most far-flung corners of the state, the size of O'Rourke's worshipful crowds has been growing month after month. Not even well-wishers in his own party know quite what to make of it. This is, after all, Texas, a place where no Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994 and where no Democrat has won a Senate seat since 1988. The psychological impact of such a drought is difficult to overstate: For liberals in Texas, the institutional memory of their old party, or even what it feels like to win, has long ago slipped through the hourglass. And yet this has been the summer of Beto—a giddy campaign season during which descriptive clichés like “Kennedy-esque” and “punk-rock Democrat” have abounded.

O'Rourke's strengths—his charisma and optimism—are Cruz's weaknesses, and the hype that surrounds his opponent is not lost on the senator. You might think Cruz would be sweating things. But he isn't. According to him, the media has this race all wrong—just as it has long gotten him all wrong.

In Cruz's view, he's been maligned and unfairly portrayed for years as a surly right-winger. That's a press concoction, he says. “The nature of the modern media world,” he tells me in his methodical style, “is that in different periods of time, different narratives take hold. Typically those narratives are overstated or caricatures.” The storyline on Cruz, when he first came to power, was that “I was this wild-eyed bomb thrower,” he says. “That was never accurate.”

The truth, Cruz wants me to know, is that he's always been a more lighthearted fellow than he's been given credit for being. “I like to have fun. I enjoy life. I like to make jokes,” he tells me. “In 2013, during the Obamacare filibuster, I read Green Eggs and Ham on the Senate floor. I did a Darth Vader impression. Turned to Mike Lee and said, ‘Mike, I am your father.’ During the presidential campaign, I did Simpsons impressions and re-enacted scenes from The Princess Bride.” Politics these days has gotten so serious, he complains.

This pivot toward congeniality makes some sense for Cruz, who's re-emerging from the humiliation of his 2016 loss to Trump—and no doubt looking to improve some dismal favorability numbers. No surprise then that this amiable side of Cruz was on display earlier in the day, inside Mama Jack's, where he spent nearly a third of his 12-minute speech discussing a well-publicized charity basketball game he'd played against Jimmy Kimmel. But his constituents had more pressing concerns.

When it came time for questions, one of the first, from an older woman, was about a recent viral video showing a man wearing a MAGA hat getting a drink lobbed in his face. It upset her.

“All of us are horrified at how divided our society is. How much anger there is. It's really sad to see,” Cruz told her. The senator, who for years was the most well-known plotter in the reactionary rebellion against President Barack Obama, seemed pained by the rancor of our times.

Liberals had forgotten that “we live in a society where we can disagree with each other with civility. We can have fun; we can laugh! You don't have to take yourself that seriously.”

But this crowd was in a pretty serious mood. A man rose and began railing against the Deep State in alarming terms, mumbling something about Ruby Ridge. As Cruz listened, the man reasoned that the FBI was a greater threat to Americans than ISIS, because terrorists could be dispatched with violence, whereas “it's against the law to shoot the FBI.”

Cruz ditched his kumbaya act. “I share your frustration. And it is a frustration that millions across this country share,” he said. He pointed out that the FBI was awash in partisan shenanigans that required urgent attention: “I'm trying to do everything I can” to expose the lies of “[former FBI director] James Comey and [former FBI deputy director] Andrew McCabe.” The answer, Cruz said, was “to get rid of partisan players who are abusing their position and to restore the rule of law.” In other words, more purges. He'd help lead the way.

For all the talk of image softening, here was Cruz being Cruz. And if there's one thing that unites those who aren't fond of him—whether on the right or on the left—it's the feeling that he's playing a character, that he's an insincere opportunist.

O'Rourke's message suffers no such authenticity trouble. His approach, while sometimes light on specifics, favors what feels good and right in the moment—an uplifting, improvisational DIY crusade. Cruz, in response, is doing what he has always done, and perhaps what he can only do: reaching out, once again, to the agitated conservative base. His voters have pulled even further right, and Cruz—despite the lighthearted demeanor—is sprinting after them.

Polls, though scattered, often report that O'Rourke and Cruz are separated by only a single-digit margin in what is now the most watched Senate race in the country. Should Cruz win big, he'll likely vanquish some of the humiliation suffered two years ago at the hands of President Donald Trump and re-invigorate plans to succeed his old nemesis.

If O'Rourke prevails or even does well, such an upset—likely to hinge on suburban and women voters—has the potential to reorder Texas politics and the nation's, too.

The day after Cruz's rally, O'Rourke is in Hutchins, a small town in Dallas County. Though he and Cruz are roughly the same age—45 and 47, respectively—O'Rourke looks and talks like a much newer model. The fervor that greets him verges on the messianic. (A state representative speaking at the event invoked Nelson Mandela.) He feels like a candidate tailored for the moment.

His campaign's product—what Beto offers—is an opportunity for dispirited Democrats to take part in something hopeful. But as Election Day has drawn closer, the tone has slowly shifted. It's gotten more urgent and a bit darker. Our country is in peril, he tells the crowd in Hutchins, and if there isn't a change in 2018, things could get worse: The “slip that we took in 2016, if unchecked in 2018, could become a slide,” he says, and “we could lose the things that have made us who we are for 242 years and counting.” Time is running out. “No pressure, folks. The entire fortune and future and fate of this country rests on our shoulders,” he says. O'Rourke calls the 2018 election the “moment of truth.” There is not the slightest bit of ironic distance here, and the crowd loves it. Somehow, it's cathartic.

Later that day, in the well-off suburb of Farmers Branch, over a thousand people pack a college gymnasium to hear O'Rourke speak, shutting out hundreds more. Even those unable to get into the rally are excited about the attendance. “Wonderful. Awesome,” one turned-away latecomer says. “It's so good that people are coming out.”

Standing in the shade with me near his campaign minivan after the event, O'Rourke acknowledges the tough road ahead—while noting that much good has already been done. His rallies, he says, are about something bigger than the current Senate race. “There's so many things going on right now that literally can't wait until the next election,” he says, still fired up just after having taken selfies with a line of hundreds.

Win or lose, the fervor brought about by the campaign could be leveraged on other issues, he says. “I feel that judgment of my kids and of history if we fail to do this. I mean, it is going to be on us. They won't say that Trump [alone is to blame], because they'll know that this is a democracy that all of us had a chance to participate in. They'll say, ‘Those pendejos in 2018, they were the ones who screwed this up.’ We can't screw this up.”

Cruz, for his part, offers none of that flower-power stuff; it's not in his nature. His campaign is keenly aware of the divisions that exist between people, and he says this race features the starkest difference between two candidates of any campaign in the country. He's probably right, and not just on policy grounds. The two men seem custom-built to oppose each other.

Just a few points of distinction: The half-Cuban Ted Cruz—born Rafael Edward—took an Anglo nickname as a kid, while his opponent, Robert O'Rourke, of Irish extraction, took a Spanish one. When O'Rourke was growing up in El Paso, immersing himself in the local punk scene, Cruz was touring with the Constitutional Corroborators, a youth group that discussed the text of America's founding documents in front of rotary clubs. When Cruz was securing a clerkship with Chief Justice William Rehnquist, O'Rourke was living in a loft with his bandmates in Brooklyn.

Whereas Cruz, as Texas solicitor general, was tasked with upholding a dildo ban, O'Rourke, as a city-council member in El Paso, was pressing to legalize weed. Earlier this year, as O'Rourke was baking in the sun along the Mexican border in the town of Tornillo, assailing Trump's family-separation policy to a crowd over a megaphone while border-patrol agents eyeballed him through binoculars, Cruz was in Houston, playing basketball with Kimmel.

Even the campaign vehicles that the two use are opposites. O'Rourke has been roaming the state in a Dodge minivan, straight out of a youth-soccer pickup line. Cruz prowls it in his muscular pickup. Like the cowboy boots he wears, it seems both genuine and inauthentic at the same time, a part of his persona more than a part of his person. In Kountze, while he slouched in the passenger seat, Cruz again bemoans the somber turn of contemporary politics. “Now no one can take a joke, no one can laugh,” he says. People want to take part in something “joyful.”

I ask: Didn't O'Rourke appear to be running a joyful campaign? “He seems to be having fun,” Cruz tells me. “I will give him that.” Cruz rarely talks about O'Rourke directly, but he grants that O'Rourke appears “genuine,” which Cruz says he appreciates. He likens O'Rourke to Bernie Sanders, whom he calls an “honest socialist.” (In truth, O'Rourke's political history since his time on the El Paso city council has been pragmatic and generally pro-business.) “That's refreshing, because it means we can have a real contest of ideas,” Cruz says. Their race, he says, provides a good opportunity for debate, a stage upon which to fight for the “American free-enterprise system.”

As for actual debating, Cruz only recently consented to squaring off—on five Friday evenings, up against high school football (an old scheduling trick in Texas to minimize the events). What he wants most to do is turn out his voters, not help O'Rourke reach a big audience.

The real story of the race, Cruz posits, as with so much else in the past few years, is the vast difference in the semi-sealed-off worlds that the two candidates' most passionate supporters inhabit. “The Democratic Party, more and more, has become the party of coastal elites,” Cruz tells me matter-of-factly. “No offense, but the party that reads GQ—your target demographic—are successful, urban professionals with a fair amount of disposable income. That's the heart of today's Democratic Party. That's the heart, by all appearances, of Congressman O'Rourke's campaign. But that's not the bulk of Americans.”

There are two Americas, Cruz declares: “GQ America” and what he calls “Field & Stream America.”

“The bulk of Texans are working hard to put food on the table,” he says, “and they don't appreciate being looked down on by people richer than they, in more privileged positions.”

There's something off about this analogy—for one thing, it misstates the demographic coalition O'Rourke wants to assemble across an economic spectrum—but it fits with the blunt-force logic of Cruz's political project. Though Cruz's team would love to start repairing his weak favorability numbers across the state, they know that the surer bet is to energize the conservative base. Cruz may be a one-trick politician, but in Texas, for the foreseeable future, that's still the most useful trick a Republican can employ.

For all the attention O'Rourke's campaign has gotten, the most impactful question for Americans might be the one least asked in the race. Assuming Cruz wins re-election, what does his political future look like? Few observers expect him to limit himself to the Senate forever. Cruz has been a loyal soldier for Trump since the 2016 election, but he became one after some pointed out that not doing so could cost him his re-election. What will he do once he's secured it?

No doubt he envisions another run for the presidency—this is a guy who dreamed about high office as a kid; a political animal who, as a child, sent cash to Jesse Helms. He seems initially reluctant to dwell on 2016. I ask him about Trump's penchant for starting meetings with Cruz by rehashing the fractious GOP-nomination battle—a war, you'll recall, in which Trump effectively called Cruz's wife ugly and implicated his beloved father in the Kennedy assassination. Is it true that he loves to chat about the race, I ask Cruz in his pickup truck. “Yeah,” he says, gazing straight ahead at the parking lot. It is his tersest answer.

But then he, like Trump does, returns to the campaign. “We went head-to-head, and I beat him in a significant number of states,” he says. “In virtually every state in the primary, either Trump was one and I was two, or I was one and he was two.” He emphasizes that he had run especially strong in the Republican youth vote—college campuses, he reminds me, had been split between his and Sanders's campaign.

Cruz had to dismantle his presidential machine after Trump won, but he still very clearly hopes to contest the party's future. And in case things go south for the president, Cruz is one of just a few Republicans with the credibility to attack Trump from the right.

Already O'Rourke has surpassed the low expectations that Texas Democrats had for him when he first took aim at Cruz. Whatever the result in November, this is the first statewide campaign in some two decades that the party can feel genuinely good about, and that's a win of its own. Even if he loses, the questions that O'Rourke has raised in this race aren't going anywhere. Chief among them: Can Texas “turn blue”?

The debate over whether the state can swing Democratic often revolves around immigration figures and the state's changing demographics, since, traditionally, Hispanics tend to vote Democratic. But there's more to the story. Hispanic voters in Texas are some of the most conservative in the country, and the Republican Party needs only a sizable minority of them to stay in power, provided the GOP continues to dominate the share of the white vote.

The conversation among Texas Democrats focuses now on the extraordinarily shabby party infrastructure. In much of the state, the party barely exists and organization remains surprisingly wobbly. O'Rourke's simple though important decision to tour the state—visiting all 254 counties—has already done a lot to spread the seeds of the party in distant corners.

O'Rourke entered the race with significant shortcomings, name recognition chief among them, and is being asked to overcome all of his own problems and then the party's, too. That's a tall ask, to say nothing of the fact that the electorate in midterm-election years skews whiter, more conservative, older, and more affluent than the electorate in presidential-election years. Those are just a few of the reasons why local observers are less optimistic about O'Rourke's chances than his national supporters are.

There's a chicken-and-egg problem here, though, that O'Rourke can help them solve. The party needs a “good loss” in order to really start building its infrastructure—that is, in order to start luring good candidates and donors and volunteers who see winning as feasible. But even earning that first “good loss” takes some organizational and operational help from the party, and nobody in years has been able to jump-start it. The hope among many Texas Democrats is simply that O'Rourke closes the gap and loses by less than ten points, which many would take as an encouraging result, something to build on. It would spur other prominent candidates to jump into more races. It might even help O'Rourke lay the foundations for a future run.

Of course, this is the sort of pragmatism that a candidate doesn't express in the middle of a race. And O'Rourke, for his part, seems completely unfazed by the pessimism that hangs over the party. “I will very often get disappointed at myself or disappointed with our team if I feel like we didn't reach what we were supposed to reach or achieve,” he tells me in Farmers Branch. “What I never do is leave [a rally] like this with anything other than the feeling that, ‘Holy shit, there are so many amazing people.’ ”

In the line to meet O'Rourke that day is a woman who had lost part of her foot to diabetes. “She wheeled over to [me],” O'Rourke recalls, “and she said, ‘I have no reason to feel this way, but I am so hopeful right now.’ You meet that person and you're like, ‘How can I not also be hopeful and make sure that we deliver on the hope that we're all raising among each other?’ ” He would keep pushing. “I'm very lucky to be a part of that.”

He seemed to mean it—O'Rourke is a man without guile. Back into the minivan he went, off to the next event. He is not a guy who agonizes over the construction and deconstruction of narratives and calculates subdivisions of the electorate. History most often belongs to the analysts, but from time to time what's needed is a person to step up and do the thing. Maybe—just maybe—he will.


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