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If Trump Shot Someone on Fifth-Avenue What Would Happen? Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=25952"><span class="small">Aaron Blake, The Washington Post</span></a>   
Monday, 03 September 2018 08:40

Blake writes: "What Trump is really saying is that he could do pretty much anything and not lose his supporters, and this poll suggests 15 percent say that exemplifies them."

Donald Trump supporters. (photo: Damon Winter/NYT)
Donald Trump supporters. (photo: Damon Winter/NYT)


If Trump Shot Someone on Fifth-Avenue What Would Happen?

By Aaron Blake, The Washington Post

03 September 18

 

atthew Miller's reaction to the new Washington Post-ABC News poll Friday caught my eye. The poll showed just 18 percent of Americans believed President Trump should pardon Paul Manafort.

"This is the 'shoot someone on 5th Avenue' caucus, and it's much lower than Trump would have you believe," the former Obama-era Justice Department official tweeted.

That reference, of course, is to Trump's famous 2016 campaign claim that his supporters would stick by him even if he pulled out a gun and shot someone on Fifth Avenue in Manhattan. The implication was that Trump could do pretty much whatever he wants and his devotees wouldn't blink. It doubles as an ego trip for Trump and a handy way for journalists and pundits to describe how Trump skates past controversies, no matter how jaw-dropping they are, because his base shrugs. (Rudy Giuliani rekindled it somewhat in a different context.)

Which got me thinking: How big is the "shoot someone on Fifth Avenue" caucus in America?

The answer I arrived at as anywhere from 1 in 8 to 1 in 5 Americans -- between 12 and 20 percent, around where Miller pegged it. These are the people who seem prepared to justify and/or forgive pretty much anything Trump has done or even has threatened to do. It represents half or less of Trump supporters.

Here's how I arrived at that number.

The Post-ABC poll shows 53 percent of American adults strongly disapprove of Trump, while 24 percent strongly approve. Those numbers are slightly worse for Trump than other recent polls, but it's usually somewhere around 2-to-1 strong-disapprove to strong-approve. Generally, about a quarter of Americans strongly approve of Trump.

It's notable that the opposition to Trump is more likely to feel that way "strongly" than his support. That suggests that, despite Trump's approval hanging tough around 40 percent for his entire presidency, a significant portion of that isn't completely thrilled with him. Those folks could feasibly at some point be convinced he's gone too far -- whether by shooting someone or for some other reason.

But that 24 percent also probably oversells the true Trump-or-die supporters. So I sought out other poll findings to see what portion of that 24 percent might be immovable (or something approximating it).

Here's a summary:

12 percent say it's "acceptable for a presidential campaign to obtain information on a political opponent from a hostile foreign power" (Quinnipiac University)

This probably undersells the Trump-or-die caucus, given Donald Trump Jr. maintains he didn't actually obtain useful information at the Trump Tower meeting with a Kremlin-tied lawyer. Republicans may also be okay with the meeting given many of them don't view Russia as "hostile."

26 percent say Trump should be able to shut down news outlets for "bad behavior" (Reuters)

This oversells the Trump-or-die caucus, given 20 percent of Democrats (!) back a president's ability to do this, and that proportion of Democrats most certainly doesn't back Trump. If you isolate just GOP-leaning voters who favor this approach, it's 16 percent of the total population. Of course, they might just be anti-First Amendment more than pro-Trump. (But still...)

12 percent say it's not a "big deal" if Russia interferes to help Republicans (Yahoo-SurveyMonkey)

This recent poll asked whether it was acceptable for Russia to try to help the GOP in elections, as the intelligence community says Russia did in 2016. Fully 40 percent of Republicans said it was either "appropriate" or "not appropriate, but wouldn't be a big deal" if Russia did that -- despite foreign involvement in U.S. elections being clearly illegal. Given Trump has said accepting info from Russians would simply be par-for-course in Americans politics, this seems like a telling number as far as how many Americans accept that defense.

22 percent say if Trump shot someone on Fifth Avenue, they would approve of his job performance (Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling)

Points for asking the question directly, I guess. But it's also a pretty ridiculous hypothetical that respondents probably recognize as such. There have to be some Trump supporters who just answer "yes" out of devotion to Trump, and given what he's said on the topic. Also, "approve" isn't quite the same as saying you would vote for a murderer/gunman.

15 percent say there is almost nothing Trump could do to lose their support (Public Religion Research Institute)

Credit to PRRI for the best way of asking this question. What Trump is really saying is that he could do pretty much anything and not lose his supporters, and this poll suggests 15 percent say that exemplifies them. Whether they'd actually follow through if Trump killed a guy? That's less certain, for the reasons described in the previous item.


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Trump's Rants Are Escalating in Dangerous Ways Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=36361"><span class="small">Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Facebook Page</span></a>   
Sunday, 02 September 2018 14:10

Reich writes: "Why is the president of the United States claiming a huge conspiracy against him?"

Robert Reich. (photo: Getty Images)
Robert Reich. (photo: Getty Images)


Trump's Rants Are Escalating in Dangerous Ways

By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Facebook Page

02 September 18

 

rump’s rants are escalating in dangerous ways. At his rally last night in Indiana Trump said: “Today’s Democrat Party is held hostage by left-wing haters, angry mobs, deep-state radicals, establishment cronies and their fake-news allies,” and that “our biggest obstacle and their greatest ally actually is the media.” He also lashed out at the FBI and the Justice Department, claiming that “people are angry” and threatening to personally “get involved.”

Why is the president of the United States claiming a huge conspiracy against him?

(a) He’s now truly paranoid and totally unhinged.

(b) He wants to fire Sessions (and Mueller), stir up his base so they’ll go to the polls Election Day, and threaten the nation with civil unrest if he’s ever impeached.

I say (b). What do you think?


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Wrong Kind of Security: Georgia Makes It Hard for Overseas Voters to Register Online Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=43327"><span class="small">Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine</span></a>   
Sunday, 02 September 2018 14:06

Kilgore writes: "The office of Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is the GOP's gubernatorial nominee, is famous for two things this year when it comes to election administration. The first is their boss' determination to combat the phantom menace of voter fraud, even if that means disenfranchising eligible voters in large numbers."

Brian Kemp has some questions to answer. (photo: Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)
Brian Kemp has some questions to answer. (photo: Jessica McGowan/Getty Images)


Wrong Kind of Security: Georgia Makes It Hard for Overseas Voters to Register Online

By Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine

02 September 18

 

he office of Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp, who is the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, is famous for two things this year when it comes to election administration. The first is their boss’ determination to combat the phantom menace of voter fraud, even if that means disenfranchising eligible voters in large numbers. The second is Kemp and company’s breezy dismissal of multiple alarms about the security of Georgia’s unique and archaic all-electronic, no-paper-trail voting system.

So it’s especially telling that the latest decision from the masters of the ballot box in Georgia appears to adopt a tardy and misplaced security measure that happens to make it harder for eligible voters to vote. BuzzFeed has the story:

The state of Georgia has blocked all foreign internet traffic to its online voter registration site, BuzzFeed News has learned, a move that would do little to deter hackers but blocks absentee voters ….
The decision has outraged technologists and voting groups. In theory, it’s meant as a security measure, based on the idea that a person visiting the site is more likely to be a foreign hacker. But in practice, it has the opposite effect: Georgians abroad who don’t know how to reroute their internet traffic with tools like virtual private networks (VPNs) or Tor will be prevented from registering to vote.

Perfectly eligible voters who happen to reside overseas, in other words, will find themselves blocked from registering unless they figure out workarounds or navigate the Georgia Secretary of State’s contact system to get technical assistance. Most will simply give up. But real hackers won’t have a problem with it.

“This won’t really do anything to dissuade a hacker. It will only turn away real voters,” said Susan Dzieduszycka-Suinat, president of the US Vote Foundation, a nonprofit that helps Americans vote abroad.

Given the recent brouhaha over efforts to shut down polling places in a mainly black Georgia county, which some critics traced to advice from Kemp’s office, you’d figure the election administrators in that state would be trying to play error-free baseball for a while. But bad habits sometimes die a slow death.


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From Mollie Tibbetts' Father: Don't Distort Her Death to Advance Racist Views Print
Sunday, 02 September 2018 14:04

Tibbetts writes: "Mollie was nobody's victim. Nor is she a pawn in others' debate."

The family of Mollie Tibbetts, whose body was found earlier this month more than a month after she was last seen, have denounced attempts to politicize her death. (photo: Charlie Neibergall/AP)
The family of Mollie Tibbetts, whose body was found earlier this month more than a month after she was last seen, have denounced attempts to politicize her death. (photo: Charlie Neibergall/AP)


From Mollie Tibbetts' Father: Don't Distort Her Death to Advance Racist Views

By Rob Tibbetts, Des Moines Register

02 September 18


Mollie was nobody's victim. Nor is she a pawn in others' debate

en days ago, we learned that Mollie would not be coming home. Shattered, my family set out to celebrate Mollie’s extraordinary life and chose to share our sorrow in private. At the outset, politicians and pundits used Mollie’s death to promote various political agendas. We appealed to them and they graciously stopped. For that, we are grateful.

Sadly, others have ignored our request. They have instead chosen to callously distort and corrupt Mollie’s tragic death to advance a cause she vehemently opposed. I encourage the debate on immigration; there is great merit in its reasonable outcome. But do not appropriate Mollie’s soul in advancing views she believed were profoundly racist. The act grievously extends the crime that stole Mollie from our family and is, to quote Donald Trump Jr., “heartless" and "despicable.”

Make no mistake, Mollie was my daughter and my best friend. At her eulogy, I said Mollie was nobody’s victim. Nor is she a pawn in others’ debate. She may not be able to speak for herself, but I can and will. Please leave us out of your debate. Allow us to grieve in privacy and with dignity. At long last, show some decency. On behalf of my family and Mollie’s memory, I’m imploring you to stop.

Throughout this ordeal I’ve asked myself, “What would Mollie do?” As I write this, I am watching Sen. John McCain lie in state in the Capitol Rotunda and know that evil will succeed only if good people do nothing. Both Mollie and Senator McCain were good people. I know that both would stand up now and do something.

The person who is accused of taking Mollie’s life is no more a reflection of the Hispanic community as white supremacists are of all white people. To suggest otherwise is a lie. Justice in my America is blind. This person will receive a fair trial, as it should be. If convicted, he will face the consequences society has set. Beyond that, he deserves no more attention.   

To the Hispanic community, my family stands with you and offers its heartfelt apology. That you’ve been beset by the circumstances of Mollie’s death is wrong. We treasure the contribution you bring to the American tapestry in all its color and melody. And yes, we love your food.

My stepdaughter, whom Mollie loved so dearly, is Latina. Her sons — Mollie’s cherished nephews and my grandchildren — are Latino. That means I am Hispanic. I am African. I am Asian. I am European. My blood runs from every corner of the Earth because I am American. As an American, I have one tenet: to respect every citizen of the world and actively engage in the ongoing pursuit to form a more perfect union.

Given that, to knowingly foment discord among races is a disgrace to our flag. It incites fear in innocent communities and lends legitimacy to the darkest, most hate-filled corners of the American soul. It is the opposite of leadership. It is the opposite of humanity. It is heartless. It is despicable. It is shameful.

We have the opportunity now to take heed of the lessons that Mollie, John McCain and Aretha Franklin taught — humanity, fairness and courage. For most of the summer, the search for Mollie brought this nation together like no other pursuit. There was a common national will that did transcend opinion, race, gender and geography. Let’s not lose sight of that miracle. Let’s not lose sight of Mollie.

Instead, let’s turn against racism in all its ugly manifestations both subtle and overt. Let’s turn toward each other with all the compassion we gave Mollie. Let’s listen, not shout. Let’s build bridges, not walls. Let’s celebrate our diversity rather than argue over our differences. I can tell you, when you’ve lost your best friend, differences are petty and meaningless.

My family remains eternally grateful to all those who adopted Mollie so completely and showered us with so much care, compassion and generosity. Please accept our desire to remain private as we share our loss. We love Mollie with all our hearts and miss her terribly. We need time. 


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FOCUS | Don McGahn as White House Counsel: An Early Appraisal Print
Sunday, 02 September 2018 11:53

Baur writes: "As Don McGahn prepares to leave his post as White House counsel some time this fall, it is not too early to take preliminary stock of his tenure."

Donald F. McGahn II. (photo: Doug Mills/NYT)
Donald F. McGahn II. (photo: Doug Mills/NYT)


Don McGahn as White House Counsel: An Early Appraisal

By Bob Bauer, Lawfare Blog

02 September 18

 

s Don McGahn prepares to leave his post as White House counsel some time this fall, it is not too early to take preliminary stock of his tenure. There is no one-size-fits-all model for the job, no standard measure for judging success. Each president chooses counsel as he or she pleases and for whatever role the particular chief executive has determined is required. The ranks of White House counsels have included litigators, ready to do battle over congressional investigations, along with others who had no special skills as defense lawyers but ran a tight ship, resolving daily legal issues and keeping scandal at bay. Some counsels needed and benefited from a long history and close relationship with their clients; others did just fine without them. Washington experience could be helpful, but was not, all cases, indispensable.

But for each of the lawyers, as for McGahn now, the evaluation of their performance is often unavoidably linked to the specific pressures on the administration they served. When President Jimmy Carter brought in Lloyd Cutler, he moved to reassure a Washington establishment uneasy about his inexperience. At a key point, Bill Clinton needed a counsel, Charles Ruff, who possessed the skills and standing to defend a president besieged by allegations of legal and ethical misconduct.

McGahn was the first counsel for a president who was only a recent member of the party who nominated him and who lacked any prior government experience—or even rudimentary grasp of institutional relationships, norms and limits. At the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump’s relationship with the Republican congressional leadership he had attacked periodically during the 2016 presidential campaign was far from close. McGahn supplied a bridge of sorts between the White House and congressional Republicans: he came from within the Trump circle, having represented the campaign, but he also had an extensive background in Washington and with the institutional Republican Party. A campaign finance specialist, early in his career he represented House Republican political interests; later on, the Senate Republican leadership tapped McGahn to lead the bloc of Republicans representing their party’s interests on the Federal Election Commission. Trump may thought he was picking “his” lawyer for the White House Counsel. But McGahn had independent political strengths.

McGahn also seems to have had an understanding of the White House Counsel’s role that Trump has struggled to comprehend. According to press reports, he has seen himself as counsel to the office of the president and not a member of the Trump personal legal corps. Like Attorney General Jeff Sessions, he soon discovered that Trump did not agree with this definition of the role—at least not with the limits that definition imposed on the extent to which the counsel would do whatever the president asked or expected. The president reportedly “expected McGahn to fill a role he has depended on his entire life: an attorney like Roy Cohn, the late Sen. Joseph McCarthy’s chief counsel, who represented his interests above all.”

As a practical matter, there is inevitably some tension between any White House counsel’s duties to the presidency and the demands he or she faces from the particular president and senior staff for help with pressing problems. Typically laden with political and sometimes personal significance for a president, the most sensitive issues require the counsel to monitor closely the risks of slipping away from an institutional representation toward just protecting the Boss. Whether McGahn lost his footing in the early going, or needed time to develop a surer grasp of his institutional role, he did not always avoid involvement in the legal controversies that have plagued the Trump White House.

At the very outset of the administration, McGahn faced questions about the White Counsel office’s role in the mishandling of the fatal problems with the appointment of former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, who quickly resigned and has since pleaded guilty for lying to the FBI about his contacts with the Russian government during the presidential transition. He also took some of the blame for the White House’s slipshod performance on the first executive order on immigration, better known as the travel ban: The debacle featured a memorandum from his office purporting to offer authoritative legal guidance that, as the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit noted, it did not actually have the legal authority to issue. McGahn and his office later shared in the criticism of the botched vetting of former Staff Secretary Rob Porter, who held a temporary clearance long after information about his history of domestic abuse became available to the West Wing.

Nor could McGahn escape the reality that while White House counsel may endeavor to represent the office of the presidency, the office does not give orders—the president does. McGahn may have objected to the original draft of the letter that the president prepared with aide Stephen Miller to justify the firing of Jim Comey, but he did not block Comey’s dismissal and eventually assisted in the development of the public rationale for the firing. At the president’s insistence, McGahn also reportedly undertook to question Sessions about his decision to recuse himself from the Russia matter.

Over time, however, it became clear that Trump had a White House counsel who by political background and definition of mission would not reliably give him the “loyalty” the president famously demanded of Comey. Trump and McGahn clashed over Trump’s demand that McGahn arrange for the firing of Robert Mueller. The two have apparently engaged in shouting matches, which is almost certainly a first in the relationship of a president and White House counsel. They have not regularly spoken without others present; the president apparently harbors doubts about McGahn’s loyalty. McGahn and his personal counsel have similar doubts of their own, apparently concerned that the president and his lawyers may have been positioning McGahn to be the “fall guy” in the Mueller investigation. A New York Times report that the relationship of this president and counsel was “complicated” appears to have been an understatement.

But amid all the pressures and what the press routinely characterized as the “chaos” of the West Wing, McGahn developed an agenda for his office that played to his strengths. He focused on judicial nominations and de-regulation. He was instrumental to this institutional Republican agenda, working closely with his allies on Capitol Hill. McGahn was key to the bargain that Donald Trump’s party has been willing to live with: bear with this inexperienced, volatile and scandal-ridden leader for as long as possible to extract the advantages of unified party control of the government.

To maintain this bargain, there was much that McGahn, as a White House counsel, has been prepared to either overlook or accept that he could do nothing about. The president continues on his course of attacks on his own attorney general, the Justice Department, and the intelligence community. He is wedded to his compulsive tweeting, including ill-tempered and ill-advised commentaries on the Russia matter. It is hard to imagine that White House counsels from most recent administrations would have been willing to put up with a client unable to break himself of these reckless, self-destructive habits and so willing to display contempt for legal institutions and processes. The president’s conduct is objectionable and imprudent on a host of grounds, but it also makes it difficult—perhaps to the point of impossibility—for a White House Counsel to protect and reinforce norms important to the enduring institutional interests of the office. This was a part of the job—and a critically important one—that McGahn has been unable to do.

But a counsel might hang in there and just “tough it out” if he or she concludes that this is necessary in pursuing other priorities. McGahn, and his supporters in the Republican Party both in and outside of Congress, had those priorities—and McGahn had proved in his former role at the FEC that he could be effective in achieving clearly defined objectives. So he stayed. His commitment to the job under these conditions is all the more remarkable in light of news that he has interviewed at length with the special counsel and become a witness of consequence in the Russia matter.

In one respect, McGahn may have been an unusual White House Counsel whose primary constituency—the Republican Party, its congressional leadership and allied interest—lay outside the White House. Inside the West Wing, he could do no better than manage a troubled and tense relationship with the president.

Sens. Mitch McConnell and Chuck Grassley have responded to news of his impending departure with expressions of deep concern. Grassley even asked the president to stop him from leaving. Trump, for his part, seems quite willing to see McGahn go: He may have been quick to confirm his counsel’s departure, after the news first leaked out in an Axios report, to settle all question that he would soon be gone for good. In a later tweet, the president shifted to the suggestion it was his “decision” that McGahn’s time was up.

No such ambiguity was reflected in the response of Republican congressional leadership response to McGahn’s planned departure. Indeed, McConnell lauded McGahn as the best of the White House counsels he had known. If McGahn is not what the president would have preferred in a counsel to the Trump administration, McGahn has clearly succeeded to a significant degree as the chief White House lawyer in a Republican administration. He has had to pay a price for these victories: the personal cost to him of being drawn into the Mueller investigation, and the professional cost of running a White House Counsel’s office for a president who has a nakedly instrumental, if not wholly cynical, view of the rule of law and the role of lawyers.

But, like his party, Don McGahn has been prepared to cut the best deal he could. Judging the reviews from the Republican side of Capitol Hill, he has every reason to think it was a good deal indeed.


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