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Russian Electoral Interference: 2018 Midterms Edition Print
Sunday, 21 October 2018 14:03

Excerpt: "'I hope that all those Internet Research Agency f*ckers will be sent to gitmo.' So wrote a Russian national allegedly working for a Russian influence operation on social media on Feb. 16, 2018 - the day that Special Counsel Robert Mueller handed down a indictment of figures connected to the Internet Research Agency (IRA)."

Robert Mueller. (photo: Brooks Craft LLC/Getty Images/Corbis)
Robert Mueller. (photo: Brooks Craft LLC/Getty Images/Corbis)


Russian Electoral Interference: 2018 Midterms Edition

By Victoria Clark, Mikhaila Fogel, Susan Hennessey, Quinta Jurecic, Matthew Kahn, Benjamin Wittes, Lawfare Blog

21 October 18

 

hope that all those Internet Research Agency f*ckers will be sent to gitmo.”

So wrote a Russian national allegedly working for a Russian influence operation on social media on Feb. 16, 2018—the day that Special Counsel Robert Mueller handed down a indictment of figures connected to the Internet Research Agency (IRA). The IRA indictment alleged that Russian nationals used troll farms to illegally influence American electoral politics by radicalizing all sides of the American landscape. It now turns out, at least if you believe the Justice Department, that the person wrote this was actually part of the same project. Indeed, suggesting that the IRA defendants get sent to Guantanamo is now alleged by the Justice Department to be part of the very same influence operation as the IRA troll farms themselves.

This is according to a Sept. 28 criminal complaint unsealed by the Justice Department on Friday, Oct. 19, against yet another member of the supposed conspiracy: one Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova, who is alleged to have been the chief accountant in the Russian operation to influence the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 midterm elections upcoming in the next three weeks.

The complaint was released publicly mere hours after the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) issued a statement along with the FBI, the Justice Department, and the Department of Homeland Security on “Combating Foreign Influence in U.S. Elections,” warning—among other things—of “ongoing campaigns” to “influence vote perceptions and decision making in the 2018 and 2020 U.S. elections.” It is not explicit that the actions were coordinated—but it doesn’t seem like a coincidence either.

The complaint is a rich document and is worth examining in depth—and it raises questions the document itself does not answer. As a preliminary matter, the mechanics of the case are curious.

First, even though the conspiracy alleged in the complaint is overtly linked to the activities of the Russian troll farm described in the February 2018 indictment brought by Robert Mueller, this case is being handled not by the special counsel’s office but instead by the U.S attorney’s office for the Eastern District of Virginia and the Justice Department’s National Security Division. This is consistent with the handling of the criminal complaint against accused Russian spy Maria Butina, which also involved an alleged Russian influence operation and was run out of the U.S. attorney’s office for the District of Columbia in conjunction with the National Security Division, and not out of Mueller’s shop. As with that case, the decision to handle the matter in this fashion appears to reflect a decision on Mueller’s part to spin off a variety of matters to other prosecutors, rather than keep them in-house and thus build an ever-expanding prosecutorial empire.

Second, it is notable that the Justice Department charged Khusyaynova in a criminal complaint accompanied by an affidavit laying out the facts of her offense—not an indictment. To secure an indictment, which can serve as the basis for an arrest and prosecution, a prosecutor must present evidence that persuades a grand jury that there is probable cause to believe a defendant committed a crime. By contrast, a criminal complaint is how the government itself, without a grand jury, alleges that it has probable cause to believe a defendant violated a criminal statute—which often makes it a more agile way to secure an arrest. As of this writing, it is not clear whether Khusyanynova is in custody, but the decision to proceed in this fashion, particularly in combination with the sealing of the charges for three weeks, suggests that some law enforcement action was anticipated or took place, either domestically or overseas.

The case docket and the affidavit reflect that authorities obtained an arrest warrant on Sept. 28, the same day that the Justice Department filed the complaint, suggesting that the government may have seen an opportunity to bring Khusyaynova into custody and quick action was thus required. Reporting on Friday indicated that Khusyaynova is not currently in U.S. custody. One possibility is that the anticipated opportunity never materialized. Another possibility is that the situation involves a foreign law-enforcement partner. Still another is that Khusyaynova may be cooperating.

Third, the document contains an incredibly rich trove of factual information. It reflects a large quantity of documentary material, almost as though investigators had seized a computer or a hard drive or had access to email accounts. The procedural posture of the case combined with the apparent investigative depth of the document indicates, one way or another, that there is at least one more shoe to drop.

So who is Khusyaynova? According to the government, she has been employed by a constellation of limited-liability companies linked to Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin—whose companies are said to have funded the IRA troll farm—and she has worked for the chief accountant of an overarching Russian influence campaign known as “Project Lakhta” since around April 2014. (Lakhta is an area of St. Petersburg, where Khusyaynova is apparently a resident and where the Internet Research Agency was located.) The government asserts that Khusyaynova headed the “finance department” of the project and was responsible for managing nearly all its financial aspects. Over the last four years, according to the government, she prepared hundreds of financial documents, managed at least 14 bank accounts, and was responsible for dispersing funding to various Project Lakhta campaigns.

Khusyaynova is charged under 18 U.S.C. §371, which criminalizes conduct by which “two or more persons conspire … to defraud the United States, or any agency thereof in any manner for any purpose” and “one or more of such persons do any act to effect the object of the conspiracy.” To “defraud the United States” has a specific meaning under U.S. case law: According to Hammerschmidt v. United States, defrauding the United States means “to interfere with or obstruct one of its lawful governmental functions by deceit, craft, or trickery, or at least by means that are dishonest.” And the defendant in this case is accused of impeding the lawful authority of the Department of Justice to enforce the Foreign Agents Registration Act and of the Federal Election Commission to enforce the Federal Election Campaign Act.

The criminal charge is nearly identical to the first count in the February indictment of the Internet Research Agency and associated entities. Those defendants, too, stand accused of obstructing the enforcement of FARA and FECA in violation of Section 371—though neither Khusyaynova nor the IRA defendants are accused of violating FARA or FECA per se. Under what is called a Klein conspiracy—a concept analyzed in depth in this context by Emma Kohse and Benjamin Wittes in the wake of the IRA indictment—a defendant can be guilty of defrauding the United States under Section 371 without being proven guilty of other criminal conduct. The defendant, rather, merely has to conspire to obstruct a lawful government function.

The Alleged Conspiracy

The aim of the alleged conspiracy, according to the complaint, was “to sow division and discord in the U.S. political system, including by creating social and political polarization, undermining faith in democratic institutions, and influencing U.S elections.” According to the government, members of the conspiracy described their activity as “information warfare against the United States,” which was carried out through a sophisticated social media campaign. (Notably, the Feb. 16 Russian troll farm indictment referred to that campaign also as “information warfare.”) Members of the alleged conspiracy operated fictitious social media accounts, pages, and groups designed to amplify polarizing topics in the U.S.—everything from gun control, to the Confederate flag, the debate over football players standing during the national anthem, race relations, LBGT issues, the Women’s March, and immigration, the government alleges.

The complaint describes remarkably detailed strategic plans from Project Lakhta, whose alleged members received instructions, as translated in the complaint, to inflame “political intensity through supporting radical groups, users dissatisfied with [the] social and economic situation and opposition social movements.” They also sought to, in the words of the alleged conspirators, “effectively aggravate the conflict between minorities and the rest of the population.” As stated in the complaint, members of the conspiracy were given detailed instructions on how and when to target certain populations and what news stories to amplify, the government states.

To finance Project Lakhta, and to conceal the specifics of the project, the government alleges that Concord paid out funds to Lakhta under unassuming labels related to “software support and development.” Concord would also allegedly distribute funds to the project through roughly 14 bank accounts held in the names of a number of Concord-affiliated LLCs—the same 14 banks accounts that were mentioned in the February 2018 IRA indictment as means by which Concord concealed funding to Project Lakhta. Khusyaynova herself, according to the government, has been an employee of various entities associated with Project Lakhta since at least 2014.

The government asserts that a complicated network of organizations is involved in this conspiracy. At the top of the network, according to the government, is Prigozhin, a Russian oligarch who controls Concord Management and Concord Catering (known collectively as “Concord”), which provided funds to Project Lakhta. That project, in turn, was allegedly operated through a number of Russian entities, including the Internet Research Agency.

Notably, it is not clear from the complaint how closely this network is supposedly connected to the Russian government. The Justice Department described Prigozhin as “closely identified with President Vladimir Putin,” and even notes his nickname: “Putin’s Chef.” Additionally, Project Lakhta is described as a “broader Russian effort,” but the document does not make the explicit link between the Russian government and the conspiracy. This is in contrast to the GRU hacking indictment from July 13 of this year, where the government explicitly alleges that the defendants are Russian government actors.

The conspiracy itself was headed by an overarching “management group,” the government contends, and then broken down into various departments: “analysts,” “design and graphics,” “search-engine optimization,” and the like. Khusyaynova allegedly headed the finance department, and the complaint refers to her as the chief accountant for the project. Included in the document are detailed references to reports that Khusyaynova allegedly filed on a monthly basis between January 2016 and July 2018, including monthly budgets for Project Lahkta’s operations—typically around $1 to $2 million U.S. dollars. At least one of these reports included a section on “USA, EU” activities that referenced expenditures for “Instagram,” “Facebook advertisement,” and “Activists,” the government alleges.

In total, the government alleges, Khusyaynova’s reports reveal that the project spent more than $35 million between January 2016 and June 2018, according to the complaint. From January to June 2018 alone, Concord records reveal more than $60,000 in spending on Facebook advertising, $6,000 on Instagram advertising, and $18,000 on “bloggers,” the complaint alleges.

Disinformation Efforts

Starting in 2015, the complaint alleges, the conspiracy created thousands of social media and email accounts that it would use to create and spread political content over the next three years. These accounts were registered under false names such as “Helen Christopherson,” “Bertha Malone” and “Rachell [sic] Edison,” some of which created politically aligned social-media groups, and others of which posted inflammatory political content reaching millions of social media users. Throughout 2016 and 2017, the conspiracy allegedly created a score of Twitter accounts to post content designed to appeal to both left- and right-leaning audiences. One account allegedly amassed more than 33,000 followers.

On a number of occasions, these fake accounts reached out to U.S. persons and U.S. organizations to coordinate on specific events and campaigns, the government contends. In July 2017, “Helen Christopherson” allegedly messaged an individual associated with “U.S. Organization 1” to collaborate on an advertising campaign in Washington D.C. and Eastern Virginia that went on to reach almost 60,000 people. In that same month, the account “Bertha Malone” messaged “U.S. Person 2,” according to the complaint, to request assistance in boosting a particular message on Facebook. U.S. Person 2 eventually agreed to help, the government claims, despite asking at one point, “please tell me I’m not going to jail for this.” (From the information provided, it is not clear why this person would have been concerned about incarceration.)

The social media accounts remained active through at least May 2018, according to the government. The messages the accounts allegedly posted on Facebook and Twitter span the ideological spectrum, saying everything from, “Retweet if you think Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize” to “Blue Wave coming!”

Interestingly, a number of the messages referenced the ongoing special counsel investigation into Russian interference. The day that Mueller issued the IRA indictment, one account tweeted, “The DOJ indicted 13 Russian nationals...still think this Russia thing is a hoax or a witch hunt? Because a lot of witches just got indicted.” A separate, right-leaning account criticized the idea of Russian influence campaigns more broadly, saying, “We didn’t vote for Trump because of a couple of hashtags shilled by the Russians.”

What to Look For

There’s been a lot of attention of late to the Justice Department practice of not taking major steps on politically sensitive matters in the immediate run-up to election. The actual policy is narrower than people imagine it to be, but it offers another reason to believe that there must be some backstory behind this case. It seems unlikely that absent some law enforcement exigency, the Justice Department would have gone public with charges like this in the immediate run-up to the midterm elections in which Russian interference in the last round of elections are very much on people’s minds. It’s possible, of course, that making these charges public are a way of reinforcing the public statements released by the intelligence community on ongoing operations. It seems more likely, however, that an opportunity arose that required immediate law-enforcement action. As the procedural history of this matter unfolds over the next few days, we are likely to learn a lot about why it became public at the time and in the manner that it did.

Look for the answer to one set of questions in particular: Where is Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova, and is she a free woman?

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11 Tight Governor's Races Will Shape America's Political Landscape Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=43327"><span class="small">Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine</span></a>   
Sunday, 21 October 2018 13:53

Kilgore writes: "The pre-midterm obsession with trends in close House and Senate races is so powerful at the moment that elementary school kids in metro Washington can probably cite Beto O'Rourke's quarterly fund-raising haul or the latest polls from California's 48th district."

Ohio Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine are among the candidates in crazy-close governor's races this year. (photo: Paul Vernon/AP/REX/Shutterstock)
Ohio Democrat Richard Cordray and Republican Mike DeWine are among the candidates in crazy-close governor's races this year. (photo: Paul Vernon/AP/REX/Shutterstock)


11 Tight Governor's Races Will Shape America's Political Landscape

By Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine

21 October 18

 

he pre-midterm obsession with trends in close House and Senate races is so powerful at the moment that elementary school kids in metro Washington can probably cite Beto O’Rourke’s quarterly fund-raising haul or the latest polls from California’s 48th district. But an unusually large number of gubernatorial barn burners may have a more immediate and practical effect on the 260 million or so Americans who live in the 36 states whose governorships are at stake on November 6.

Democrats are almost sure to make some kind of net gains in total governorships, given a landscape in which Republicans are defending 26 seats in the midle of a midterm pro-Democratic trend. Indeed, according to the Cook Political Report, Democrats are favored to hold onto their own states and take back GOP governor’s offices in Illinois, Michigan and New Mexico. (Republicans are favored to oust Alaska’s independent Governor Bill Walker).

But Cook has an amazing 11 gubernatorial (nine in states currently held by Republicans, two by Democrats) races rated as toss-ups. Let’s go through them briskly, in order of their likelihood to go Democratic. After each, we will note how each race is rated by Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and RealClearPolitics, along with the more specific projections made by FiveThirtyEight.

Lean Democrat

1) Connecticut — Can Democrats overcome the shadow of Dan Malloy? This race is Open D (the incumbent governor is a Democrat, but is not running for reelection). The deep unpopularity of outgoing Democratic Governor Dan Malloy has made this race in deep blue Connecticut competitive. But Republican nominee Bob Stefanowski has been endorsed by Donald Trump, which is not very helpful in a state where the president’s approval ratio is 39 to 56. Democrat Ned Lamont is best known for his nearly successful Senate race against Joe Lieberman in 2006. Both candidates are wealthy and have opted out of the state’s public campaign financing system. Lamont has had a steady high-single-digit lead in the limited polling in the race. It looks like the state’s partisan lean and the national environment could keep Democrats in charge in Hartford.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans D
RealClearPolitics: Leans D
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Lamont has 5 in 6 chance of winning.

2. Oregon — Will Partisanship Trump Kate Brown’s Unpopularity? Incumbent D. This is another deep blue state where an incumbent Democratic governor is in some unexpected peril. Kate Brown ascended to the governorship when scandal-plagued veteran Governor John Kitzhaber in 2015. She won a special election for the remainder of his term, but not by an impressive margin for a Democrat in a presidential year. After signing major tax increases. her approval ratio is underwater (39 to 46, according to Morning Consult) and Republicans were able to come up with a moderate opponent for her in state legislator Knute Buehler. Brown has maintained a narrow lead in the polls, but Democrats are nervous.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans D
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Brown has 6 in 7 chance of winning.

3. Maine — Can Democrats finally overcome independents and win in this state? Open R (incumbent is term limited). Maine may be suffering from fatigue over the two-term reign of its fiery conservative Governor Paul LePage, whose current approval ratio is a sour 40 to 54. That should help the Democratic candidate to succeed him, Attorney General Janet Mills, against Republican Shawn Moody, a LePage ally. But just as LePage won both his elections with a plurality as independents siphoned off more moderate voters, Moody could as well, thanks to the presence on the ballot of two independents, including current state treasurer Terry Hayes. There has been no public polling of this race since August.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Mills has an 11 in 12 chance of winning.

4. Iowa — Is This Big State for Trump in 2016 ready to flip? Incumbent R. Kim Reynolds became governor when longtime incumbent Terry Branstad was appointed ambassador to China last year. She is a staunch conservative, probably best known nationally for signing the nation’s most restrictive abortion law. Her approval ratio is a tepid 43 to 38 according to Morning Consult. Her Democratic opponent, Fred Hubbell, is a classic midwestern “fiscally conservative, socially liberal” centrist Democrat, and a self-funder. The context of this race is a red-hot environment in which Democrats are battling to reverse two straight heavily pro-Republican election cycles in the state (capped by Trump carrying the state by nine points in 2016 and the GOP finally winning total control of the legislature). Hubbell has maintained a small, but steady, lead in recent polls.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Hubbell has a 6 in 7 chance of winning.

5. Florida — Andrew Gillum on the edge of matching his primary shocker with another in the general election. Open R (incumbent Republican Rick Scott is running for the U.S. Senate). Democratic mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum was the upset winner of his party’s primary, defeating heavily favored Gwen Graham on the strength of a powerful urban vote. An African-American and a self-identified progressive (he was endorsed by Bernie Sanders and received major financial backing from Tom Steyer and George Soros), Gillum offers a sharp contrast to Republican nominee, Representative Ron DeSantis, who got an early endorsement from Donald Trump (though the president has reportedly been angry at DeSantis for failing to back up his weird claims about the Hurricane Maria death toll in Puerto Rico). The campaign was all but frozen for a couple of weeks by Hurricane Michael, which was good news for Gillum, who had opened up a narrow lead in most polls. DeSantis has tons of money remaining, and the two parties are as usual slugging it out over early voting (a huge factor in the state). It’s possible DeSantis will lose crucial votes in the storm-battered Panhandle region, though Rick Scott is using his emergency powers to provide special voting opportunities there.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Gillum has a 5 in 7 chance of winning.

6. Wisconsin Scott Walker in deeper trouble than ever — but we’ve heard that before! Incumbent R. This is a race that has a strong sense of either déjà vu or chickens coming home to roost. That’s because conservative lightning rod Scott Walker is running for his third term as governor. Counting the recall he survived in 2012, this is his fourth tough race in eight years. And the relatively small slice of Wisconsin voters who don’t intensely like or dislike him could be getting a little tired of him by now. His Democratic opponent, state school superintendent Tony Evers, is well positioned to capitalize on disgruntlement with Walker’s public education budget cuts. In fact, Walker himself has echoed Evers’s own proposals to reestablish a state commitment to pay for two-thirds of total school costs. In the end this race will probably come down to an expensive voter mobilization effort. Walker and his allies have outspent Evers and his friends on TV by about a 2-to-1 one margin during the general election campaign. But then again, Evers has led in most of the polls (though the latest version of the gold-standard Marquette Law School poll gave Walker a one-point edge among likely voters). A wild card is Democratic Senator Tammy Baldwin’s big lead in the U.S. Senate race, which could serve as a drag on Walker — or could enable either or both parties to divert resources to the governor’s contest.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Democrat Evers has a 5 in 8 chance of winning.

True Toss-ups

7. Nevada — It’s a crapshoot in Nevada. Open R (incumbent is term limited). Nevada’s gubernatorial race is one of two statewide contests (the other involving Republican Senator Dean Heller and Representative Jacky Rosen) that are dead even in a battleground state where voter mobilization is a fine art. While Democrat and Clark County (Las Vegas) Commission Chairman Steve Sisolak is a fairly conventional representative of his party, Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt has a personal background that often overshadows his very conservative ideology. His mother was the daughter of legendary Nevada Republican Senator Paul Laxalt, and his father (as publicly acknowledged fairly recently) was the late New Mexico Senator Pete Domenici. He was the product of an affair between his parents. He grew up and lived in the Washington, D.C., area (working for John Bolton at the State Department and then serving as a JAG officer in Iraq) before moving to Nevada and soon running successfully for attorney general. His single biggest problem in the general election is his estrangement from popular incumbent Brian Sandoval, who has refused to endorse him, in part because Laxalt has threatened to repeal an education tax he championed as governor. Polls have gone both ways. A peculiar factor is the independent candidacy of militia icon Ryan Bundy, who could siphon votes from Laxalt.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Republican Laxalt has a 5 in 9 chance of winning.

8. Georgia — A racially polarized slugfest could go either way. Open R (the incumbent Republican governor is term limited). This contest is often discussed as a matched set with Florida. As in the Sunshine State, Democrats are represented by an African-American progressive while Republicans are running an abrasively conservative Trump loyalist. The contrast has been particularly sharp because Republican Brian Kemp, the longtime secretary of state and election supervisor, has a reputation as a skilled vote suppressor, while Democrat Stacey Abrams has staked her campaign on registering and mobilizing underrepresented voters, especially African-Americans. Abrams is not as conspicuously progressive on the issues as Florida’s Gillum, but she is significantly to the left of past Democratic statewide candidates in Georgia (where no Democrat has won the governorship or a Senate race in 20 years). Demographic change has made Georgia more competitive, though. There’s a wrinkle, though: Georgia law requires a December runoff if no candidate wins a majority. With a Libertarian candidate likely to win about 2 percent of the vote, that could definitely happen. Every poll taken since the primaries has shown a race within the margin of error.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Republican Kemp has a 4 in 7 chance of winning.

9. Ohio — Another 2016 Trump state with buyer’s remorse. Open R (incumbent is term limited). In the early running this race to succeed John Kasich looked like former Senator Mike DeWine’s to lose. A bruising Democratic primary was won by former Consumer Financial Protection Bureau director Richard Cordray, who has fought his way into a toss-up. Like Nevada’s Laxalt, DeWine has not been endorsed by the Republican he wants to succeed. And like Laxalt, DeWine is being hit for his participation as the state’s attorney general in a lawsuit that would bring down Obamacare and its protections for people with preexisting conditions. Cordray has gone after DeWine for waffling on Republican plans to pass an antiunion right-to-work law. They’ve been relatively even in fund-raising during the stretch run to the election. And the background is that Ohio is another Rust Belt state that trended heavily Republican in 2016, but seems to be experiencing buyer’s remorse. Incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is running away with his reelection race.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Republican DeWine has a 4 in 7 chance of winning.

Lean Republican

10. Kansas – Kobach may be saved by indie Orman. Open R (incumbent was defeated in a primary). Much as Donald Trump is the dominant figure in American politics, his friend and ally Kris Kobach dominates Kansas politics at present. Having narrowly defeated incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer (who assumed the governorship when Sam Brownback took a diplomatic appointment) in a primary, the famous nativist and voter-suppressor drove a lot of prominent moderate Republicans to endorse his Democratic opponent Laura Kelly. Kobach would probably be losing if it were not for independent candidate Greg Orman, who is a convenient vehicle for Republicans who can’t stand Kobach but won’t defect to the other party. As it is, polls show the Kelly-Kobach race as dead even.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Toss-up
RealClearPolitics: Toss-up
FiveThirtyEight: Republican Kobach has a 5 in 8 chance of winning.

11. South Dakota – A Competitive Race Out of the Blue. Open R (incumbent is term limited). South Dakota’s gubernatorial election has been one of the sleeper races in the country. It was assumed to be an easy hold for Republicans (incumbent Dennis Daugaard’s approval ratio is a solid 59 to 27) under at-large Representative Kristi Noem. But Democrat Billie Sutton, a ranch-bred banker and a former rodeo star before an injury in an event left him with paraplegia) has run an effective campaign aimed at state government corruption, and federal officeholder Noem’s background in the Swamp hasn’t equipped her to respond very well. Sutton is also pro-gun and anti-abortion. There’s been scant public polling in the race, but a lot of national buzz of late. If Sutton pulls off the upset, he’d be the first Democratic governor of his state in 40 years.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Leans R
RealClearPolitics: Safe R
FiveThirtyEight: Republican Noem has an 8 in 9 chance of winning.

In an election cycle as wild as this one, a gubernatorial contest not among these 11 could be surprisingly close. And the implications for day-to-day governance — and for redistricting after the 2020 census — could be formidable.

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Go Out and Visit a National Park While You Still Can Print
Sunday, 21 October 2018 13:43

Withrow writes: "America's national parks are now in the throes of irreversible climate change. The many iconic features that tourists take for granted today will likely be memorialized by future generations, rather than experienced."

Glacier National Park. (image: Daily Beast)
Glacier National Park. (image: Daily Beast)


Go Out and Visit a National Park While You Still Can

By Brandon Withrow, The Daily Beast

21 October 18


If defending our parks is a task left to the American people, and specifically its leaders, then we'll likely be visiting our future memorials.

ot every day-hike has a pay-off like that of the popular Avalanche Trail in Glacier National Park. It begins with a leisurely boardwalk through red cedars and hemlocks, intersects with the rolling waters of Avalanche Creek, and steadily climbs upward until its towering trees part and unveil the amphitheater of Avalanche Lake. The thundering cascade of distant waterfalls are the soundtrack to the lake’s serene turquoise water.

The amphitheater is arresting, though I have to admit that everything in Glacier is jaw-dropping. But as I stand there soaking it in, there is another feeling, a terrible one that I cannot shake—that one day, in the not-so-distant future, this lake and those falls will become shadows of their former selves, and eventually they may even go silent.

America’s national parks are now in the throes of irreversible climate change. The many iconic features that tourists take for granted today will likely be memorialized by future generations, rather than experienced.

We may take in the sight of glaciers, forests, flowers, or wildlife, but each of these depends on the other. Changes can cascade across a system, and—thanks to climate change—what we see today is not certain to be there, even in the relatively near future. As a recent study in Science suggests, unless there are massive greenhouse reductions soon, there will be a “global” transformation “that is ubiquitous and dramatic” within the next 100 years.

This is especially true of glaciers—the canaries in the global climate “mine”.

It is easy to think that glaciers, which are almost as old as the last ice age, will be here forever—but that would be an unrealistic assumption.

Just over a century ago, there were 150 glaciers in Glacier National Park, but today there are only 25—by current estimates, the park could be free of active glaciers by 2030. The disappearance of the very glaciers that gave the park its name will have long-lasting consequences. That raging water of the Avalanche Creek is an outlet of Avalanche Lake, which in turn is fed largely by the waterfalls (and seasonal snow melts or rain), and these waterfalls have their primary source in the Sperry Glacier.  

But it is the Sperry Glacier that is disappearing fast, dropping in size by 75 percent since the mid-19th century, and 40 percent since 1966.

The disappearance of water sources like these affects more than hikers or vacationers; it has serious consequences on every scale, from the life of insects crucial to the ecosystem, to the huckleberry crop (an important food source for grizzlies), to the survival of other animals and plant life adapted to Glacier’s colder temperatures. Drier climates mean a greater threat from wildfires, and vanishing glaciers mean lost water during drought.

As it happens, Glacier National Park reached record temperatures of 100 degrees in August, which enabled the fast-spreading and damaging Howe Ridge Fire, wiping out thousands of acres of forest and private and public buildings.

This park, however, isn’t the only place these effects are being felt.

It is hard to miss the news that Yosemite National Park—and other parts of the West—have experienced similar setbacks with drought, high temps, and winds increasing the effects of wildfires. The park’s prized iconic glaciers, for example, Lyell and Maclure, have been retreating for over a century, and declining faster in recent years due to climate change, losing 80 percent of their surface area over the 85 years their size has been monitored.

Lyell and Maclure are primary sources for the Lyell fork of the Tuolumne River, which empties into the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, an important resource for the water supply of San Francisco and agriculture in the region, as well as animal and plant life. A drier Yosemite means more threats from wildfires like that of this year’s Ferguson Fire.

In other words, the loss of glaciers is not simply a loss of an icon one can hike to, it the sign of greater shifts to come—a visual remodeling of the landscape and its inhabitants with substantive consequences. It is a reminder that nothing is permanent, especially now.

To paraphrase the philosopher Heraclitus, “you can never step in the same national park twice.”

And this is at the core of my unease—the sadness that we humans are horrible caretakers of this planet and these resources. Undoubtedly, the landscape that I now enjoy will eventually be the ledger of our mismanagement, laid bare for generations to see.

Before my visit to Glacier, I settled several days at Yellowstone National Park, where these shifts can be measured in trees.  

Earlier warming seasons are increasing in Yellowstone, and in the Greater Yellowstone Area in general, and warmer winters are taking a toll on another iconic landscape feature, the whitebark pine tree. The tree is important to the survival of other species and the watershed; its nuts feed animals like the Clark’s nutcracker—which help to spread its seeds—and grizzlies, keeping the bears at higher altitudes and away from conflict with humans. Climate warming, however, enables the mountain pine beetle to attack the trees and increases the presence of white pine blister rust, leading to the decline and potential end of these forests.

Climate warming also makes higher temperatures and dryer conditions in Yellowstone more common today, shrinking the region’s wetlands and increasing the wildfire threats.

Not all the effects of climate change, however, are registered merely in destruction. Like glaciers, birds—perhaps, the actual canary in the mine— also signal the effects of climate change early on.

A recent study from the National Audubon Society and the National Park Service of 513 bird species across 274 national parks, says the park service should expect large shifts in populations by 2050, as birds find their regular summer and winter homes unsuitable due to climate change.

Many parks, like Theodore Roosevelt National Park, have a high potential for losing birds that are no longer able to survive under shifting climate conditions. Others, like Arches National Park in Utah, however, will discover that the loss of local species outnumbered by mass colonization of new birds seeking a more climate-friendly home. In fact, the big surprise of the study is that (like Arches) 60 percent of national parks will become more suitable for avian population colonization by the middle of the century.

In other words, the bird communities we seek out in our vacations to the national parks will be significantly different in the future. The avian color palette I enjoy today may not be the same when my nieces and nephews arrive with their families.

That may sound good to some; birders can travel less to find more birds, right?

There are, however, still a lot of unknowns and dangers—as is the case with extreme changes over short periods of time. Many of these birds may be competing for nesting spots in diminishing forests, decreasing food supplies, and water sources in parks plagued by drought and threats of wildfires. Parks are now the frontline for bird conservation.

To put it another way, it is important to preserve our parks for more reasons than just ensuring that Instagram galleries taken today look the same 50 years from now.

The litany of ongoing anthropogenic changes in the parks can seem never-ending. A study released by the National Park Service earlier this year shows, for example, that coastal parks with historic sites and islands are under threat from rising sea levels and storm surges. And I want to be hopeful about our ability to preserve our natural spaces, their icons, and even resist climate change.

I want to be hopeful, but I don’t believe it is warranted.

This August, for example, the Trump administration announced new rules called the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule, setting out with a Thanos-like expediency to end the Obama era Clean Power Plan’s efforts to save the planet. The Obama plan set standards to reduce U.S. production of greenhouse gases by 32 percent by 2030—just about when Glacier National Park may lose its active glaciers.

Trump's plan also has no lofty goals of lifting us out of our carbon addiction.

An analysis from the administration’s own plan admits ACE will cost human lives in an effort to benefit coal companies—anticipating an increase in CO2, health-damaging pollutants, and premature deaths to upwards of 1,400 annually. The climate outlook is grim, with a new U.N. report showing that the 2015 Paris agreement, which limits the global temperature rise to no more than 2 degrees C, is not enough. The report states that 1.5 degrees C, while still leaving a permanent scar on the globe, is needed, requiring an immediate withdrawal from our carbon addiction.

Even worse, the administration’s recent environmental impact statement admits that the global temperature will rise 7 degrees Fahrenheit (approximately 4 degrees Celsius) at current rates—a devastating scenario they are treating as inevitable and using as an argument against focusing on emissions controls.

This ambivalence toward the environment and human life, and this administration’s continual attempts to roll back land, species, and natural resource protections, is a reminder that many lawmakers choose their pocketbooks over their planet.

It brings to mind John Muir’s words about the Giant Sequoia—a tree that found its legendary capacity for survival tested during the prolonged droughts in California in recent years.

“Any fool can destroy trees,” writes Muir, “They cannot defend themselves or run away...God has cared for these trees, saved them from drought, disease, avalanches, and a thousand storms; but he cannot save them from sawmills and fools; this is left to the American people.”

So as I sit on a fallen tree along the edge of Avalanche Lake and listen to the falls in the distance, I decide to get up and take a few more pictures. Because if defending our parks is a task left to the American people, and specifically its leaders, then we’ll likely need photos for our future memorials.

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RSN: Solomon, Cohen, Gallegos, McCann and Smith | Democratic Autopsy: One Year Later Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=49368"><span class="small">Norman Solomon, Jeff Cohen, Pia Gallegos, Sam McCann and Donna Smith, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Sunday, 21 October 2018 11:47

Excerpt: "Why the Democratic leadership stays in the 'deficits' trap can seem like a mystery, but the main clues point to corporate power and the leverage of great wealth."

Senator Chuck Schumer. (photo: Getty Images)
Senator Chuck Schumer. (photo: Getty Images)


Solomon, Cohen, Gallegos, McCann and Smith | Democratic Autopsy: One Year Later

By Norman Solomon, Jeff Cohen, Pia Gallegos, Sam McCann and Donna Smith, Reader Supported News

21 October 18

 

ntroduction

In October 2017, a team of progressive researchers published “Autopsy: The Democratic Party in Crisis,” which probed the causes of the disastrous 2016 election defeat. The report came in the wake of the party leadership’s failure to do its own autopsy.

In a cover story for The Nation, William Greider wrote that the Autopsy is “an unemotional dissection of why the Democrats failed so miserably, and it warns that the party must change profoundly or else remain a loser.” La Opinión reporter María Peña summed up the findings this way: “To revitalize its base for future elections, the Democratic Party has to clean up the rubble of its defeat in 2016 and develop a strategy beyond condemning the actions of President Donald Trump.”

Now, “Democratic Autopsy: One Year Later” evaluates how well the Democratic Party has done in charting a new course since the autumn of 2017. This report rates developments in each of the seven categories that the original Autopsy assessed — corporate power, race, young people, voter participation, social movements, war and party democracy.

The upsurge of progressive activism and electoral victories during the last year has created momentum that could lead to historic breakthroughs in the midterm elections and far beyond. Realizing such potential will require transforming and energizing the Democratic Party. 

Corporate Power and the Party

Somewhat worse

The Democratic Party has implemented modest reforms, but corporate power continues to dominate the party. In the fall of 2017 and early summer 2018, the Democratic National Committee voted to refuse donations from employees or corporate PACs of a handful of toxic industries that contradict the party’s platform, namely the payday loan, tobacco, gun manufacturing and fossil-fuel industries — though the ban on fossil-fuel money was effectively repealed in August 2018. Meanwhile, the DNC and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee continue to freely take big corporate donations.

The “Better Deal for Democracy” platform that Democrats put forward for the 2018 midterms does include proposals to lessen corporate control over politics with an emphasis on campaign finance reform. But the reality of corporate leverage over the party remains largely intact. One measure of the clout corporate interests wield is revealed by analyzing how Democrats act on economic issues in states (from California to Connecticut) that they politically control. David Sirota published such an analysis in The Guardian in September. He put his conclusions in a tweet: Democrats in blue states “have used their power to block single payer & a public option, enrich Wall St, subsidize corporations, slash pensions, lay off teachers, promote fracking & engage in pay to play corruption.”

A test of whether Democrats on Capitol Hill would side with corporate or public interests was provided this year by the GOP’s successful effort, working with powerful bank lobbyists, to weaken the Dodd-Frank Act (under the guise of helping small community banks). More than one-third of Senate Democrats joined the effort to weaken Dodd-Frank, many of whom were recipients of significant banking donations. In the House, 33 Democrats joined most Republicans to pass the measure; journalist David Dayen reported that nearly all of the 33 identify as corporate “New Democrats” (and nine were members of the Congressional Black Caucus).

Think tanks that are closely allied with party leadership continue to rake in millions from corporate donors, billionaires and Persian Gulf despots. A case in point is the Center for American Progress, which takes major donations from Apple, Walmart, the Walton family, Bill Gates and the dictatorship of United Arab Emirates (along with dozens of “anonymous” donors). It’s difficult to tell how much influence those big donors have on CAP’s policy initiatives, but it’s worth noting that the influential think tank didn’t back Medicare for All (such as the bill proposed by Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris) but instead promoted something called “Medicare Extra for All.” While an improvement over the Affordable Care Act, CAP’s proposal stops short of putting its weight behind existing initiatives to provide Medicare to all Americans. To critics, CAP’s plan is needlessly complex and, at worst, an effort by the corporate wing of the party to co-opt — and water down — the growing single-payer movement.

While Democratic leaders — beginning with President Clinton and NAFTA, if not earlier — have been, at best, half-hearted supporters of the labor movement, Democrats should take note that the U.S. public is warming in its attitudes toward unions. Harold Meyerson reports that a Gallup poll timed for this Labor Day “showed support for unions at 62 percent, the highest level in 15 years, with majority backing from every demographic group except Republicans, and even they are evenly split, 45 percent to 47 percent.” And there was much public sentiment in support of teachers who went on strike against neo-liberal budget restraints this spring, including in “red states” like West Virginia, Oklahoma and Arizona.

Further evidence that Democratic Party priorities often align more with wealthy elites and corporate newspaper editorial boards than with average Americans is that the party’s top leaders still obsess over deficits — something the tax-cut-happy Republican Party long ago stopped even pretending to care about. In September, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi preemptively boxed in any potential left-populist agenda on Capitol Hill by backing reinstatement of a “pay-go” rule to offset all new spending with tax increases or budget cuts. A former legislative director for three Democrats in Congress, Justin Talbot-Zorn, responded with an article for The Nation pointing out that “bold progressivism and ‘pay-go’ fiscal conservatism are mutually exclusive.” He added: “The existential challenge of climate change demands that we fully overhaul our energy and transportation infrastructure in a short period of time. The issues of America’s rising inequality and frayed social contract — including stagnant wages, unaffordable college, and exorbitant health care can only be fixed with major new investments. While much of this needed spending can and should be offset — for example with cuts to our exorbitant and wasteful military budget — it’s far more important that the underlying problems are solved.”

Why the Democratic leadership stays in the “deficits” trap can seem like a mystery, but the main clues point to corporate power and the leverage of great wealth. Our society is in desperate need of massive public investment, but such talk is anathema to Wall Street and other sectors where maximizing private profits is the top priority. While the platforms offered by Democrats have moved leftward on economic issues during the last year, a crucial disconnect remains between rhetoric about corporate influence and subservience to it.  

Race and the Party

Mixed developments

Speaking to a predominantly black audience in the summer of 2018, Democratic National Committee chair Tom Perez said: “We lost elections not only in November 2016, but we lost elections in the run-up because we stopped organizing… We took too many people for granted, and African Americans — our most loyal constituency — we all too frequently took for granted. That is a shame on us, folks, and for that I apologize. And for that I say, it will never happen again!”

During the last 12 months, voters of color have been key to notable electoral wins. But the party has a long way to go to fulfill Perez’s promise. Too much money still goes to big ad buys instead of community-based outreach and organizing. Overall, the party has not done enough to advance positions that would appeal to voters who want to end ICE repression, promote sanctuary cities, and credibly affirm that black lives do indeed matter.

In the November 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election, Democrat Ralph Northam “won three-quarters of the votes overall” in racial minority neighborhoods “and more than 80 percent in African-American neighborhoods,” the Washington Post reported. “Margins grew by 10 percent in Hispanic neighborhoods.” Black voters turned out in higher numbers than they had before. However, the degree to which this was thanks to Northam and the party’s campaign strategies is debatable. While Northam vocally opposed Confederate monuments, he also omitted his black lieutenant governor from some campaign literature and pledged to ban sanctuary cities in Virginia if one was ever created. Though he has since vetoed a bill that would have implemented such a ban, his willingness to stand up for the rights of people of color has been weak.

Northam’s campaign spending priorities were also distressingly similar to the party’s 2016 behavior. Heading into the home stretch, his biggest expenditure was nearly $9 million for TV commercials given to an advertising firm with an all-white board. The ads, highlighting his opponent’s ties to Enron, were the sort of spending that last year’s Autopsy warned against. Groups like BlackPAC and New Virginia Majority handled essential local black organizing, but had a difficult time securing adequate resources.

Alabama’s special election for the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions tells a similar, slightly more encouraging story. Democrat Doug Jones defeated Republican Roy Moore, a man accused of pedophilia with a history of pro-slavery and birther remarks. To be sure, Moore’s racist past played a role in Jones’ overwhelming margin among black voters. Jones won 96 percent of the black vote, and black voters accounted for 29 percent of those who cast ballots — a higher share than in either of Obama’s presidential victories, and more than the state’s 27 percent black population. All told, 56 percent of Jones voters were black.

That victory was due to the robust organizing among Alabama’s communities of color. BlackPAC and other groups, including local NAACP chapters, organized and knocked on more than 500,000 doors with a tailored message addressing criminal justice reform, education and health care. The DNC also contributed to operations, spending around $1 million on engaging black and millennial voters and hiring black consultants to handle organizing. Jones, like Northam, devoted huge sums to advertising; out of the $9 million that Jones had spent overall as Election Day approached, nearly $7 million went toward TV ads targeting white voters, according to Democracy in Color’s Steve Phillips.

While spending priorities remain misguided, the party is making some progress toward aligning policy positions with the needs of communities of color. Such alignment requires forcefully advocating for steps to ensure economic security for everyone through policies like Medicare for All and progressive tax reform, while also addressing specific forms of state violence that target communities of color.

Donald Trump’s assault on immigrants has mobilized some in the party to take a stronger line on immigrants’ rights, including calls for the abolition of ICE. Yet congressional Democrats were seen as having sold out Dreamers in their budget negotiations with Republicans in early 2018 — contributing to mistrust. An April 2018 poll found that while 40 percent of Hispanics believe Democrats care about undocumented immigrants brought to the U.S. as children, 54 percent believe they’re “using this issue for political gain.”

Likewise, the Democratic Party must do much more to reform the police and justice systems. Eighty percent of Democrats want reform and 87 percent want to decrease the prison population. Running for Philadelphia district attorney as a comprehensive reformer, Larry Krasner showed that these desires for change could be mobilized into a winning campaign; turnout for his November 2017 election was much higher than previous DA elections. Krasner went on to implement policies such as dropping marijuana charges and dismissing problematic prosecutors in the DA’s office.

Such policy approaches, coupled with grassroots organizing, enabled police accountability advocate Randall Woodfin to win the Birmingham (Ala.) mayoral race in 2017 and enabled progressive Democrat Earnell Lucas to win the race for Milwaukee County (Wis.) sheriff in August 2018. These campaigns suggest a path forward for Democratic candidates — where the priority is to inspire voters and maximize turnout rather than to woo “persuadable” Republicans.

However, as Shaun King of The Intercept pointed out in August 2018, national and state-level party organizations have not adequately supported reform-minded candidates in winnable races. To fulfill Perez’s recent promise, that must change.  

Young People and the Party

Mixed developments

On the front of addressing young voters, the Democratic Party still isn’t offering a bold vision that can excite a demographic known for not showing up much on election day. For the 2018 midterms, the party decided to center on issues of corruption and ethics, as laid out in its “Better Deal for Our Democracy” platform. This is a modest step forward — especially the “Crack Down on Corporate Monopolies” provisions, which are overdue — but missing is a focus on the bread-and-butter issues that can materially affect young people’s lives, such as redirecting resources from our bloated military toward popular programs for free college education and Medicare for All.

Young people, more than their older counterparts, are increasingly against obscene military budgets and U.S. wars — as are Democratic voters in general. But citizens with those views are without powerful representation in Washington. Roughly 68 percent of House Democrats and 85 percent of Democratic senators voted for the record-breaking 2019 military budget. High-profile “resistance” lawmakers, such as House members Nancy Pelosi, Ted Lieu and Adam Schiff, voted yea on giving Trump a military budget of over $700 billion to expand America’s imperial footprint and devoting vast sums to expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. It’s noteworthy that most of the major prospective candidates for the party’s 2020 presidential nomination — including Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris and Jeff Merkley — voted against the most recent Defense Authorization bill. Those who actually have to win over voters in the 2020 primaries nationwide see which way the wind is blowing at the grassroots. Why don’t Democratic leaders? At the top of the party, there is little-to-no “resistance” to the rubber stamp of bloated, violent militarism.

One of the main drivers of young people’s cynicism about the Democratic Party is the belief that there isn’t much of a distinction between it and the Republican Party. Case in point: nonstop war and support for Trump’s airstrikes, which are not just unopposed but praised by many Senate Democrats. Working to draw sharp contrasts to Republicans via principled opposition would likely be more effective than showing up to university campuses and scolding millennials for not voting, as former President Obama did in September.

On the issue of paying for college, something obviously key to exciting young voters, party leaders have made a bit of progress. But instead of taking a clear, aggressive stance in favor of free public college tuition — something a strong majority of Democrats support — congressional Democrats proposed a law in July that would subsidize community colleges only and work to “make college more affordable by reducing debt and simplifying financial aid,” as the Washington Post reported. This tepid, process-oriented approach hardly made big news. Again, it’s an improvement (and could legitimately benefit many) but is still bogged down in too many qualifiers and cost-neutral niceties — something the GOP has long given up on doing.

Free public-college tuition has support among a sizable minority of Republicans, at 41 percent. How many young, right-leaning voters could be drawn in with a clear embrace of free public college for all? Likely many. Most Democratic presidential contenders for 2020 have learned to push some compelling, simple policy measures. So have a growing number of successful candidates for local and state offices as well as congressional seats. But the Democratic leadership is still using a 1990s-era playbook of technocratic half-measures that don’t inspire — or bring out to the polls — America’s youth.  

Voter Participation and the Party

Somewhat improved

The depressed turnout that cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election was due to both voter suppression efforts by Republicans and the Democratic Party’s own inability to mobilize its base. The party has made some progress on both counts in the past year. However, party leadership still does little to energize voters to turn out for candidates running credible campaigns for genuinely progressive policies.

Republican strategists are hell-bent on keeping targeted voters from the polls — specifically people of color, the young, and others apt to cast ballots for Democrats. Those efforts got a big boost from the Supreme Court’s Husted decision in June 2018 to uphold Ohio’s mass purge of so-called “inactive” voters. The ruling is expected to prompt other states to follow suit, just as the 2013 court decision weakening the Voting Rights Act and allowing purges without federal approval coincided with aggressive voter removal in nine states with a history of racial discrimination.

The Democratic National Committee’s response to such measures has grown more robust in the past year, with the creation of the “IWillVote” program to register new voters and fight voter-suppression efforts. The initiative has provided grants in 41 states and territories, aiming to reach 50 million voters by the November midterm election.

The party has also supported restoring felons’ right to vote. In April, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo pledged to restore suffrage to felons on parole. And Democratic leaders in Florida, including the party’s gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum, are supporting a ballot measure to restore felons’ voting rights. The Florida ballot measure is particularly important, taking place in a purple state where as many as 10 percent of adults are unable to vote because of a conviction. These common-sense, fundamentally democratic measures are popular among both Republican and Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill.

Meanwhile, automatically registering everyone to vote has emerged as a popular and practical way to address discriminatory voter restrictions. In 2018, eight states and the District of Columbia approved or began implementing automatic voter registration (AVR). These laws were virtually nonexistent in the U.S. three years ago, but now 13 states and DC have enacted them.

AVR represents a double victory for the party — registering millions of voters when higher turnout benefits Democrats, while also siding with clear public opinion. Two-thirds of Americans want automatic voter registration for citizens, including a majority of both Republicans and Democrats.

Yet most of the Democratic leadership has remained hesitant to organize around other clearly popular policies. As the Autopsy pointed out a year ago, a sizable number of voters in marginalized communities are apt to see scant difference between the two major parties; for many, the Democratic Party simply does not have credibility on what should be its core issues. In a country where only 61.4 percent of eligible voters turned out for a hotly contested presidential race in 2016, the Democratic Party could dramatically boost voter participation by mobilizing around voters’ hunger for progressive policies:

  • 76% of the U.S. public supports higher taxes on the wealthy.
  • 70% of the U.S. public supports Medicare for All.
  • 59% of the U.S. public supports a $15 minimum wage.
  • 60% of the U.S. public supports expanded tuition-free college.
  • 69% of the U.S. public opposes overturning Roe v. Wade.
  • 94% of the U.S. public supports an Equal Rights Amendment.
  • 65% or more of the U.S. public supports progressive criminal justice reform.
  • 59% of the U.S. public supports stricter environmental regulation.

The Democratic Party routinely seems unable or unwilling to take full electoral advantage of such public opinion. Despite its expressed resistance to Trump’s agenda throughout 2018 and its embrace of some genuinely progressive positions, the party has not come close to addressing its fundamental lack of credibility with voters. This is manifested in the party’s continued slide in favorability; a Quinnipiac poll in March 2018 showed just 31 percent of the country had a positive view of Democrats — down from 37 percent four months earlier and 44 percent a year earlier, according to CNN polls. A survey by Rasmussen Reports found that 71 percent of voters wish Democrats would stress the specific policies where they disagree with Trump, as opposed to vague resistance.

The ties that bind the party to big-money donors constrain policy shifts that could appeal to widespread public sentiment on a range of issues. Democrats now receive about 44 percent of all contributions given by industry PACs, up 3 percent from last year. Voter turnout is apt to fall short when many are left doubting that the Democratic Party will make good on its progressive rhetoric.  

Social Movements and the Party

Mixed developments

In last year’s Autopsy, ambivalence about growing and intensifying social movements seemed the most accurate description of the DNC. From the party platform struggles of 2016 through the “Summer for Progress” coalition convened by Our Revolution in the summer of 2017, the DNC seemed tone-deaf to the policy demands of its base. When Summer for Progress activists marched to DNC headquarters in Washington to deliver their People’s Platform, they were met outside the front door by barricades.

But since mid-2017, the DNC and party leadership have been pulled along by the grassroots to recognize and even embrace policies that likely would have been rejected by a Hillary Clinton White House: for example, the single-payer “Medicare for All” movement. The U.S. House recently saw the formation of a Medicare for All caucus, with at least 70 members. Even ex-President Obama recently got on board. Thanks to pressure from activists, including groups like National Nurses United with significant organizational resources, party leaders may have little choice but to follow the lead of its own rising stars and future presidential hopefuls. A year ago, a Vox headline summed it up: “The stunning Democratic shift on single-payer: In 2008, no leading Democratic presidential candidate backed single-payer. In 2020, all of them might.”

Benjamin Day of Healthcare-Now, the grassroots single-payer advocacy group, recalled that “the DNC had nearly denied the existence of our activists before Bernie Sanders’ campaign moved the issue forward.” Years of organizing have overcome the claim that single-payer is “politically infeasible,” according to Professor Lindy Hern, who cites polls revealing “majority support for Medicare for All within the public at large.” (Hern’s research also shows a record increase in news media coverage using the term single-payer — an increase of 94 percent in 2017 from the previous year.) No one is under the illusion that the DNC has fully embraced single-payer. But notes Alex Lawson of Social Security Works: “Two-thirds of House Democrats support Medicare for All and over 90 percent support expanding Social Security. In the Senate, every potential presidential candidate supports expanding Social Security and Medicare… The 2016 Democratic platform had a strong plank in support of expanding Social Security, but the 2020 platform must be even stronger and include Medicare for All as well.”

Student survivors of the Valentine’s Day mass shooting at Florida’s Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School became accidental leaders of an intense new push for gun control. Within six weeks, the #NeverAgain movement helped organize the March for Our Lives in Washington — with more than 800 solidarity events across the country — and a national voter registration drive. Though most congressional Democrats had been avoiding or downplaying the gun control issue, it was hard to ignore this youth movement that targeted Republican intransigence first, but also Democratic avoidance. After an initial faux pas of using a Parkland survivor in a DNC fundraising email less than three weeks after the shooting, the party seems poised to support multiple candidates who are making gun control a prominent issue in their campaigns — some with the backing of grassroots groups.

Another youth-energized social movement, the climate justice movement, was dealt a slap in the face by the DNC, when it reversed its two-month ban on accepting donations from the fossil-fuel industry. The August 2018 reversal led a co-founder of 350.org to declare: “This sort of spineless corporate pandering is why Democrats keep losing.”

This has been a banner year for successful primary campaigns by progressive Democrats nationwide allied with organizations such as Our RevolutionJustice Democrats, Democratic Socialists of AmericaPeople’s Action, Democracy for AmericaCitizen Action, Working Families Party and Progressive Democrats of Americato name just a few groups that knocked on doors and email inboxes all year. In New York State alone, there was the stunning defeat of powerhouse Rep. Joe Crowley by 28-year-old political newcomer (and former Bernie for President organizer) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and then a progressive deluge that unseated six “Independent Democratic” state senators — corporatists allied with the GOP and Democratic Governor Cuomo. If there’s a “blue wave” across the country in November 2018, much of the credit will belong to grassroots groups that magnified their resources and/or held Democratic incumbents to account.

How did the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee react to this grassroots energy and campaign engagement? Often by resisting it — on behalf of establishment primary candidates against progressives. In Colorado’s 6th District, where the DCCC favored establishment candidate Jason Crow, progressive favorite Levi Tillemann secretly taped House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer urging him to get out of the race and to not be negative toward Crow. The “be nice” request sounded hypocritical in light of the DCCC’s intervention in Texas’ 7th District, where the DCCC bizarrely issued an opposition research” attack on progressive primary candidate Laura Moser. In both districts, local activists in groups like Progressive Democrats of America, Our Revolution and Justice Democrats protested the DCCC interference.

Progressive social movements have the ability to energize the Democratic Party, but not if blocked by party leaders.  

War and the Party

Somewhat worse

Chants of “No More War” from delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention gave voice to sentiments that still resonate through the base of the party and the broader U.S. public, notably in communities with higher rates of military sacrifice. While Trump’s 2016 victories in swing states may well have been aided by his posing as a foe of protracted war, his administration’s Mideast policies have largely exposed that masquerade. Unfortunately, the positions of Democratic leaders on endless war and bloated military spending offer little alternative to voters.

Few Democrats in Congress are willing to strongly challenge the unaccountable military budget, which soaks up most discretionary spending that could be redirected toward the party’s proclaimed domestic agenda. During federal budget negotiations early this year — with Trump requesting a staggering 11 percent Pentagon budget increase over two years — Nancy Pelosi boasted in an email to House Democrats: “In our negotiations, Congressional Democrats have been fighting for increases in funding for defense.” The office of Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer declared: “We fully support President Trump’s Defense Department’s request.” Months later, an overwhelming majority of House and Senate Democrats supported the massive 2019 “National Defense Authorization Act” of $717 billion.

In 2018, few Democratic candidates for Congress conveyed to voters how military budget cuts could make an expansive domestic agenda possible. Notable exceptions include four newcomers (all women of color) expected to be sworn into Congress in January: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY), Ilhan Omar (MN), Rashida Tlaib (MI) and Ayanna Pressley (MA).

While Democratic leaders failed to resist Trump over war spending, they did loudly resist the prospect of peace breaking out in Korea. In June, on the eve of nuclear talks between Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un (a process sparked by South Korea’s progressive-leaning president), Schumer and six other senior Democratic senators sent a rejectionist letter to Trump demanding that any hint of sanctions relief for North Korea be dependent on an agreement with obviously impossible conditions. The letter mirrored GOP objections to Obama’s Iran nuclear deal.

Trump has a dangerous admiration for authoritarian leaders. Democrats need to condemn such admiration without succumbing to reckless bellicosity.

The United States and Russia possess 93 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons. Amid evidence of a Russian effort to help Trump during our 2016 election (evidently less effective and overt than the U.S. effort 20 years earlier that successfully backed an erratic, anti-democratic candidate in Russia’s presidential election), many Democratic leaders seem oblivious to the ongoing threat of armed conflict with Russia — a peril that was profoundly understood by Democratic presidents during the height of the Cold War when Russia had a much worse form of government. Reacting to evidence of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, numerous Democrats have engaged in extreme rhetoric, calling it an “act of war” and “equivalent” to Pearl Harbor. Democratic leaders have rarely acknowledged the crucial need for “a shift in approach toward Russia” including “steps to ease tensions between the nuclear superpowers,” in the words of an Open Letter for “Election Security and True National Security,” released this summer.

With consistently moral foreign policies that reject costly militarism and continuous intervention, Democrats could inspire the party base and gain support among swing voters and independents (especially third-party voters). But advocacy of those policies comes mostly from a minority of Democratic “backbenchers,” not leaders.

The party leadership has routinely been absent in the face of a humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen caused primarily by the U.S.-backed Saudi war (and the close White House alliance with Saudi Arabia). In March, Bernie Sanders, Democrat Chris Murphy and Republican Mike Lee forced a vote on their Senate resolution to end U.S. military support for the Saudis in Yemen. In the face of White House opposition and apparent indifference among Democratic leaders, it went down to defeat (55-44) thanks to ten Democratic “no” votes. With the disaster continuing to worsen in Yemen, the House Democratic leadership reportedly dragged its feet while progressive first-term Congressman Ro Khanna persistently led a bipartisan effort to get a vote on a similar measure; finally, in late September, Khanna was able to introduce the resolution with some high-level party support.

On matters of war and peace — for instance, the 17-year war in Afghanistan and the Trump team’s extremely one-sided Israel-Palestine policy — top Democrats have offered few coherent alternative policies. In May, for example, Schumer praised Trump for moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem days after he criticized Trump for withdrawing from the Iran nuclear agreement — a deal Schumer had originally opposed. And Democratic leaders have made scant objections to Trump administration actions that a director at Amnesty International USA, Daphne Eviatar, described as “hugely expanding the use of drone and airstrikes, including outside of war zones, and increasing civilian casualties in the process.”

Democrats often denounce the GOP for immoral and extremist domestic policies favoring the powerful. But the party’s failure to challenge such foreign policies is a moral and political tragedy.  

Democracy and the Party

Somewhat improved

Efforts to democratize the Democratic Party made some progress in August 2018 when the full DNC voted to bar superdelegates from voting for the presidential nominee on the first ballot. This significant reduction in the power of superdelegates — Democratic leaders, party officials and lobbyists — grew out of anger among many Bernie Sanders supporters about DNC favoritism exerted via superdelegates for Hillary Clinton. In the end, the reform passed with much support from the Clinton wing of the party and a major assist from DNC chair Tom Perez.

Contrary to claims made in last-ditch efforts to retain the superdelegate system at the DNC’s decisive meeting, the reform moved toward greater racial diversity at the national convention. The most extensive research into the 2016 superdelegates, by the Pew Research Center, found that 20 percent of superdelegates were black and about 36 percent were people of color; numbers provided by the Hillary Clinton campaign showed that convention delegates as a whole were more diverse than superdelegates — 25 percent black and 50 percent people of color.

During the 2018 midterm election campaign, Democratic leaders who were ostensibly committed to playing even-handed roles within the party too often acted as power brokers working against new insurgent candidates by backing their usually better-funded opponents. For instance, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee designated certain primary candidates for exclusive financial and strategy resources from the party, many times edging out a progressive opponent. The DCCC’s focus on fundraising orients candidates and elected officials to be politically inclined toward big-money donors and disconnected from constituents.

A similar failure to maintain impartiality in primaries has persisted at the top of the DNC. Early in 2018, Chairman Perez repeatedly declared that the DNC should not endorse candidates in contested primaries. “One thing we’ve learned at the DNC is that when you, in fact or in perception, are trying to put the thumb on the scale in a spirited primary, that can undermine public confidence in us,” he said on C-SPAN. Yet in May he did a backflip and endorsed New York Governor Andrew Cuomo for reelection over progressive challenger Cynthia Nixon.

The DNC’S encouraging action on superdelegate reform contrasts sharply with the DNC’s failure to act on a proposal by its Unity Reform Commission to establish a Financial Oversight Committee that would present an annual report on the DNC budget to the entire DNC, so that it could assess the effectiveness of expenditures and staff, as required by the DNC’s Bylaws. The current Finance Committee — entirely appointed by the DNC chair — conducts no evaluations of whether expenditures for consultants, media outreach and staff are accomplishing measurable goals. A Financial Oversight Committee could help achieve what the DNC has continued to lack: transparency and accountability in how DNC money is spent. After lengthy delays, the DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee has promised to place the oversight proposal on the agenda of the DNC winter meeting.

In response to criticism of the secret joint fundraising arrangement that the DNC entered into with candidate Hillary Clinton in 2015, the DNC has now committed itself to making transparent its fundraising with candidates and its agreements with state parties.

This summer, the DNC voted in reforms to promote more openness and accessibility in presidential primaries and caucuses. The reforms urge state parties to work with their state government to combat voter suppression and implement measures such as same-day party switching and same-day registration. An extreme example of anti-democratic barriers is in the state of New York, where voters must declare their party affiliation more than six months in advance. Those rules discourage electoral engagement, especially among people of little means and young adults.

To get closer to living up to its name, the Democratic Party should rely on a broad base of small donors and refuse donations from corporations, particularly those with interests adverse to the party’s platform. The DNC’s reversal of its ban on fossil-fuel donations was a step backward. And the party gave a nod to insular politics when it adopted a new provision requiring a presidential candidate to affirm that he or she is “a member of the Democratic Party” and to acknowledge that the DNC chair is authorized to determine whether the candidate “is a bona fide Democrat.” Treating the party as a club that looks askance at non-club-members makes no sense when far more voters identify as independents than as Democrats.

Barriers to democracy inside the Democratic Party have obstructed efforts to make the party a powerful vehicle for progressive change. During the last year, grassroots pressure has reduced some of those barriers. Looking ahead, a truly democratic Democratic Party could profoundly revitalize the politics of our country.  

Download the full Update 2018 report “Democratic Autopsy: One Year Later” here (PDF)

This article was originally published at Democratic Autopsy.

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FOCUS: Top Five Ways Trump Enabled MBS Murder of Journalist Khashoggi Print
Sunday, 21 October 2018 10:49

Cole writes: "Trump said Friday that he finds 'credible' the bald-faced and ridiculous lies the Saudi government came up with to explain the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. He thereby signaled his intention of sweeping the affair under the table for the sake of Saudi arms sales."

Supporters hold up signs for the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who Turkish was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. (photo: Ozan Kose/Getty)
Supporters hold up signs for the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, who Turkish was killed in the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul. (photo: Ozan Kose/Getty)


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Top Five Ways Trump Enabled MBS Murder of Journalist Khashoggi

By Juan Cole, Informed Comment

21 October 18

 

rump said Friday that he finds “credible” the bald-faced and ridiculous lies the Saudi government came up with to explain the death of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. He thereby signaled his intention of sweeping the affair under the table for the sake of Saudi arms sales. His position is no surprise, given his own criminal discourse toward journalists and his entire disregard for the rule of law.

The lawless and fascist discourse of US president Donald Trump is not without consequences in world affairs. Part of what a superpower does is tell its client states ‘no’ when they propose some atrocity. The superpower does not do this out of the milk of human kindness. But where a powerful state has allies and clients it wants to be able to deploy them effectively to accomplish policy goals, which often requires that they be credible to other allies.

Europe already had the severest misgivings about Trump’s attempt to establish an economic blockade of Iran, deploying an Israeli-Saudi axis in the region to do so. The European Union is more invested in an international rule of law than the US, and so takes a dim view of Israel’s illegal relocation of hundreds of thousands of Israelis onto Palestinian land in the Occupied West Bank, and realizes that Israel is a liability rather than an asset in Middle East diplomacy.

Now, European heads of state and ministers are staying away from a planned major Saudi conference on the global economy, which they had earlier signaled they would attend.

Internationally, Trump’s hopes for a Western front against Iran have just crumbled entirely.

Although Saudi Arabia is number two in arms purchases from France, Emmanuel Macron has been trying to distance himself from Riyadh, declaring that the kingdom isn’t a major client of France and that the news of Khashoggi’s death is “serious and concerning.” He has halted certain diplomatic visits to Saudi Arabia and is seeking a common European front on the issue.

As for the function of a superpower being to tell people ‘no,’ Trump has been doing the opposite.

Trump boasted that he could shoot someone down walking in the street on 5th Avenue and his fan base would not care. Strong men around the world heard him joking about murdering political opponents.

Trump urges crowds to menace journalists, calls them the ‘worst people,’ and just praised Montana congressman Greg Gianforte for body-slamming a young journalist, Ben Jacobs, and breaking his classes, for which Gianforte was fined by a court.

Trump wants to introduce political libel laws into the US, such that a politician could sue anyone who crticizes him for defamation. The Saudis don’t do anything so formal as instituting court proceedings, but political libel is very much a crime in Saudi Arabia and it is used to silence critical voices and journalists.

When asked about Putin’s own notorious assassinations of his critics, Trump gave the Russian strong man a pass, saying that the US also whacks people. Well no doubt it does, but not Washington Post journalists, or at least not openly and regularly.

When Trump made a state visit to Saudi Arabia in May of 2017, he said to his audience there, “We are not here to lecture you. We are not here to tell other people how to live, what to do, who to be or how to worship.” You couldn’t find a clearer mandate for strongman rule in the Arab world or a clearer promise that the US would wink at it.

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