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FOCUS: William Barr Was Chosen by This Administration* to Protect This Administration* Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=11104"><span class="small">Charles Pierce, Esquire</span></a>   
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 11:33

Pierce writes: "He's willing to live in Trumpian fantasy land because so are the people voting on his confirmation."

William Barr. (photo: Saul Loeb/Getty Images)
William Barr. (photo: Saul Loeb/Getty Images)


William Barr Was Chosen by This Administration* to Protect This Administration*

By Charles Pierce, Esquire

16 January 19


He's willing to live in Trumpian fantasy land because so are the people voting on his confirmation.

he judicial branch has taken a ballpeen hammer to the administration* over the past couple of weeks, as it has periodically ever since El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago came to Washington and started a fight over his travel ban. (We'll come back to that in a moment.) A couple of days ago, a federal judge in Philadelphia struck down the administration*'s regulation that would allow a "religious liberty" exemption from the Affordable Care Act's requirement that companies provide free birth control. The Philadelphia decision extended over the whole country a previous decision in a California court that applied only to California and 12 other states and the District of Columbia.

Then, on Tuesday, a federal judge in the Southern District of New York whaled on Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross and Ross's attempt to add a "citizenship" question to the 2020 census. From the Washington Post:

In his ruling, Furman blasted Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for “egregious” violations of the Administrative Procedure Act, including ignoring a statute that requires him to collect data through administrative records instead of through direct inquiries on a survey such as the census.

Furman called Ross’s decision to add the question “arbitrary and capricious,” adding that Ross had “failed to consider several important aspects of the problem; alternately ignored, cherry-picked, or badly misconstrued the evidence in the record before him; acted irrationally both in light of that evidence and his own stated decisional criteria; and failed to justify significant departures from past policies and practices — a veritable smorgasbord of classic, clear-cut APA violations.”

Ross also failed to follow other laws, including a statute requiring that he notify Congress of the subjects planned for any census at least three years in advance, Furman wrote, adding that the plaintiffs had proved they would be harmed by the question.

"A veritable smorgasbord of classic, clear-cut...violations." Lovely phrase, that, and one that can be applied to so many of the administration*'s actions over the past two years.

These two decisions have set all the bats careening around the belfries as regards the judiciary and the Department of Justice. On Fox News, contributor Gregg Jarrett proposed breaking up the FBI. And the Washington Examiner's Quin Hillyer, drawing in part on the work of noted legal scholar Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III, proposed restricting the power of federal district courts to make their decisions applicable to the entire country. David French, writing in the National Review, the country's longest-running journal of white supremacy, also chimed in with horror. And the general principle came up often as William Barr faced the Senate Judiciary for the first of two days of testimony.

I gave up taking confirmation hearings seriously when I watched grifters like Ryan Zinke and fools like Betsy DeVos go sailing into the Cabinet simply because the Republicans had the votes in the Senate to put them there. (The Gorsuch hearings and the Kavanaugh puppet-show didn't recommend themselves to me as having been more than rigged wheels, either.) So watching William Barr's testimony on his behalf was rather like watching the same movie for the 93rd time.

Republican senators threw softballs. Democratic senators went head-hunting, and Barr sought refuge in that unique form of Beltway weaselspeak that sounds important but is only portentous—Polonius with an honorarium and a fellowship at Heritage. There is no doubt in my mind that Barr was chosen by this administration* to protect this administration*, and that any pretense to the contrary was vain and foolish. Yet, everyone had to go through the motions anyway, so there we are.

If there was an intriguing strand to the questioning, it came on those occasions when Barr was questioned not about our current political dilemmas but, rather, on his work in the Department of Justice back in the 1980s and 1990s. Barr was George H. W. Bush's last Attorney General. It was the superheated beginning of the "war" on drugs, and Barr was central to creating that administration's draconian policies for drug enforcement and incarceration. Those policies now are the exact policies that the new push for criminal-justice reform is trying to, well, reform. (After leaving the White House the first time, Barr took a job with then-Virginia Governor George Allen in the latter's attempt to abolish parole in that state.)

Senator Kamala Harris took that particular bit in her teeth.

HARRIS: The war on drugs was a failure that should have focused on public health.

BARR: But the job of the DOJ is enforcement.

HARRIS: But I remind you what you said earlier that the AG roles are enforcement, legal advice AND policy.

Senator Cory Booker went at Barr even harder than Harris did.

BOOKER: I just want to tell you that I was a young black guy in the 1990s, I was a 20-something year told, and experienced a dramatically different justice system and the treatment that I received...Do you think, just yes or no, that this system of mass incarceration has disproportionately benefited African American communities?

Later, Barr said that he believed the "overall system" was working and that black and white defendants were treated equally within it and, demonstrating the kind of discipline we like to see in our public servants, nobody fell off their chairs or threw food.

Anyway, Barr was slipping and sliding all over the place, ducking a question on voter-suppression by saying low turnout represented citizens "not being that engaged in the public affairs of the country," but occasionally letting the mask slip a bit, such as when he talked about how a court had overturned the Muslim Ban in the first days of this administration*.

BARR: A judge with a lifetime appointment sitting somewhere in the country who doesn't have the access to the information, has no political accountability, can stop a national security measure?... That's really troublesome to me.

That's a tell. Barr is trying to sell the original fig-leaf that the ban was a response to a national-security threat, one that turned out to be as evanescent as the one the administration* is pitching to us as occurring along the border with Mexico. He can walk through the Trumpian fantasyland as easily as anyone else, and that's why he's going to be the attorney general, because the other people willing to live there have the votes.

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"The President Has Been Acting on Russia's Behalf": US Officials Are Shocked by Trump's Asset-Like Behavior Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=44647"><span class="small">Abigail Tracy, Vanity Fair</span></a>   
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 09:22

Tracy writes: "Amid interpreter-gate and fears of a NATO exit, House Democrats are once again considering a nuclear option to force transparency on the president."

House Intelligence committee chairman Adam Schiff. (photo: AOL)
House Intelligence committee chairman Adam Schiff. (photo: AOL)


"The President Has Been Acting on Russia's Behalf": US Officials Are Shocked by Trump's Asset-Like Behavior

By Abigail Tracy, Vanity Fair

16 January 19


Amid interpreter-gate and fears of a NATO exit, House Democrats are once again considering a nuclear option to force transparency on the president.

n the aftermath of Donald Trump’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Helsinki last July, House Intelligence Committee member Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff, then the ranking Democrat on the panel, introduced a measure to subpoena the only American witness to the more than two-hour-long private meeting between the two leaders—the interpreter. Every Republican on the committee voted “no,” and the motion failed.

But now, newly empowered and wielding subpoena power in the majority, House Democrats are once again considering extraordinary actions to force transparency on the president. “We thought that it was fishy back then,” Swalwell told me Monday evening. “And my fear is that, since July, over the last six months, there has only been more evidence that the president has been acting on Russia’s behalf and we don’t know what was exchanged in that meeting.” Chief among the questionable policy decisions the Trump administration has made in recent months is the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, a Russian client state, and moves to ease sanctions on the business empire of Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska—both actions that Swalwell believes may have been guided by a sinister purpose. “We have a president who is taking actions that are contra to what U.S. policy has always been, and I don’t believe that that is because of how the president feels,” he said. “I think he is a transaction-driven individual and this seems to align more with some arrangement that he has with the Russians.”

There is a growing urgency behind these efforts, following a Washington Post story that detailed the lengths Trump went to shield his interactions with Putin from his West Wing staff, as well as a New York Times report that Trump privately told officials he wanted to withdraw from NATO. The first Trump-Putin meeting, in Hamburg, Germany, in 2017, is of particular interest to lawmakers. The interpreter in that meeting said President Trump instructed him not to discuss details of the sit-down and confiscated his notes when several U.S. officials asked him what had transpired, according to the Post.

The only detail the interpreter reportedly shared with the officials—including Fiona Hill, the senior Russia adviser at the National Security Council, and John Heffern, then the acting assistant secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs at State—was that Trump told Putin, “I believe you,” when the Russian president denied interfering in the 2016 presidential election. The Hamburg meeting is just one of five off-record meetings between the two leaders that Democrats are eager to probe. Another is Helsinki, where Trump famously dismissed the conclusions of U.S. intelligence agencies that Russia had interfered in the election and affirmed, again, that he saw no reason to believe Putin wasn’t telling him the truth. Several U.S. officials told the Post that they were never able to get a substantive readout of the two leaders’ private conversation. (A White House spokesperson told the Post that former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who was in attendance at the Hamburg meeting, “gave a fulsome readout of the meeting immediately afterward to other U.S. officials in a private setting, as well as a readout to the press.”)

Despite the White House’s attempts to downplay the Post’s reporting, former U.S. officials I spoke with said the president’s behavior is anything but normal. “I have never, ever heard of that happening. It is shocking, actually,” a former high-ranking State Department official told me, outlining the deliberate and meticulous record-making process that typically takes place after such high-level meetings. This person recalled that even after former Secretary of State John Kerry held occasional one-on-one meetings with foreign leaders and officials, they would debrief the top diplomat as soon as possible and often have a debrief with the interpreter as well. Given the Russia cloud hanging over the White House, the president’s behavior is particularly befuddling. “If he were a normal person he would want that meeting to have been very carefully recorded by somebody else to demonstrate that he wasn’t doing anything weird,” this person told me.

A second former high-ranking State Department official expressed similar astonishment. “I have never heard of a president doing that. Presidents always have an official note taker. As do the people they meet with. [It is] critical to have that record, even when the two leaders meet ‘one-on-one,’” they told me. “I can’t think of any good reason not to have a note taker for a presidential meeting with a foreign official. And not to have notes of a meeting. They are often classified and often shared only with a small and select circle. But it is still crucial.”

Trump’s paranoia might have been explained, in part, by a series of high-profile and embarrassing classified leaks early in the administration. In one particularly notable example,The New York Times published an account of his May 2017 meeting with Russian officials in the Oval Office, during which Trump boasted that firing “nut job” James Comey had relieved “great pressure” on him. To the president’s mind, such betrayals came at a cost to his efforts to improve U.S.-Russian relations and ultimately to lift sanctions on Moscow. “He was always very protective of the Russian relationship. [He] seemed to feel like everyone around him was out to get Russia, which he didn’t agree with,” one former administration official told me. But the former official also noted Trump’s unusual sensitivity when it came to matters involving Putin. “Russia things did seem to leak more than anything else, but he also seemed more protective of them than most things.”

Earlier on Monday, members of the House Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees gathered on Capitol Hill to discuss whether Democrats should subpoena the interpreters involved. Congressman Eliot Engel, the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs committee, said during an interview with CNN that Democrats would “ultimately” pull the trigger, but that they’re not there quite yet. “No decision has been made on subpoenas or anything else, we are not going to do this cavalierly, we are going to put our heads together and get at the truth, and we are going to work together,” Engel said. “What we are not going to do is sit back and do nothing. We are going to try and get to the bottom of this.”

Republican pushback is all but certain. When Democrats first floated the possibility of calling Trump’s interpreters before Congress last summer, G.O.P. lawmakers roundly dismissed the idea. “We’re not going to go and start having interpreters in private meetings come out and testify,” Senator Lindsey Graham said at the time. On Sunday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy reiterated that the president has a right to meet with foreign leaders in private. “He likes to create a personal relationship, build that relationship, even rebuild that relationship, like he does with other world leaders around,” he said.

That argument may not hold up in court. While the White House would likely claim executive privilege to block a Democratic fishing expedition, legal experts say the law is likely on the side of Congress. “Congress has very broad investigatory powers, and the fact that Trump went out of his way to take meeting[s] with foreign leaders in unconventional manners, and destroy the notes of those meetings rightfully gives members of Congress—among many others—serious pause,” said Josh Chafetz, a constitutional law professor at Cornell University. “I think there’s a very good case to be made that executive privilege (a) should be understood to be weaker against Congress than it is against the courts, and (b) should be understood to contract when the president is acting highly abnormally and has thrown aside the normal intra-executive safeguards of the presidency.”

Swalwell agreed. “I understand that presidents need to be able to communicate with world leaders in confidence,” he told me. “But we have an extraordinary incident here where not only did he meet one-on-one with Putin and he took actions that favored Putin over the next six months, but we have evidence now that he asked for the interpreter’s notes which to me is a consciousness of guilt that he would destroy any evidence of what occurred in the meeting.”

The mystery may never be resolved to Democrats’ satisfaction, because interpreters rarely take “fulsome” notes in the first place. “Their ‘notes’ aren’t really notes,” cautioned the second former State Department official. “As I’ve seen them, they often just jot down a few reminders. Because they are focused on exact words and quick interpretation,” they explained. Official note takers, if they are present, try to capture the political and diplomatic substance of the issues discussed. But “interpreters aren’t substantive experts and so just deal with interpretation.”

There is the possibility that House Democrats could subpoena Tillerson or other administration officials to help fill in the gaps. But Swalwell said there are no plans to bring the former top diplomat before Congress, at least not as of now. “I don’t want to speak for Engel or Schiff. I want to support what they do and recommend just based on my own experience and expertise but it does seem that there are more relevant witnesses than just the interpreter,” he said. “But again, I will leave it to them to decide who they are and when they would come.”

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Print
Wednesday, 16 January 2019 09:22

Millhiser writes: "On Tuesday, a federal district court held that this citizenship question must be removed from the Census form."

The administration's own Census Bureau warned that adding such a question 'is very costly, harms the quality of the census count, and would use substantially less accurate citizenship status data than are available from administrative sources.' (photo: Getty Images)
The administration's own Census Bureau warned that adding such a question 'is very costly, harms the quality of the census count, and would use substantially less accurate citizenship status data than are available from administrative sources.' (photo: Getty Images)


Census Question: The Trump Administration’s Racism Was Just Blocked by Its Incompetence

By Ian Millhiser, ThinkProgress

16 January 19


The bad news is that the rule of law doesn't necessarily apply in the Supreme Court.

n what was almost certainly an effort to discourage participation from immigrant communities, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced last year that he would add a question to the 2020 Census questionnaire asking if each person in the United States is a citizen — a question that the Census has not asked since the Jim Crow era.

On Tuesday, a federal district court held that this citizenship question must be removed from the Census form. The case is New York v. United States Department of Commerce.

The Trump administration was discouraged from including this question by an array of census experts from both political parties — including top officials from the Reagan and Bush I administrations — who concluded that it “could seriously jeopardize the accuracy of the census,” because “people who are undocumented immigrants may either avoid the census altogether or deliberately misreport themselves as legal residents.”

The administration’s own Census Bureau warned that adding such a question “is very costly, harms the quality of the census count, and would use substantially less accurate citizenship status data than are available from administrative sources.”

Secretary Ross ignored this advice and included the question anyway. And as Judge Jesse Furman lays out in a 277-page opinion striking down the citizenship question, the Trump administration then went to embarrassing lengths to find someone — anyone — who would defend their attempt to rig the Census.

At one point, for example, a Trump administration official emailed the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative think tank, asking if someone at AEI “can speak to the pros of adding such a question.” The same day, a senior AEI employee responded that “none of my colleagues at AEI would speak favorably about the proposal.”

Judge Furman’s opinion presents Ross and his team as grossly incompetent. They seemed oblivious to their legal obligations, often appeared unaware of what their own advisers were telling them, and even appear to have outright lied about why they included the citizenship question.

Furman’s decision will almost certainly be reviewed by the Supreme Court, where the plaintiffs in this lawsuit still face an uphill battle. Three of the Court’s Republicans already tried to shut down Furman’s inquiry into the Census.

But Furman’s opinion is detailed, cautiously reasoned, and full of details that expose the political appointees who supported the citizenship question as rank incompetents. There is no guarantee that Furman’s opinion will survive contact with the Supreme Court — but Furman did his utmost to preemptively shame any judge who may try to reverse him.

Arbitrary and capricious

When federal agencies set policy, they must comply with a federal statute known as the Administrative Procedure Act (APA) — a law prohibiting agencies from taking “arbitrary” or “capricious” action. The APA does not simply require agencies to follow the law, but requires them to conduct a rigorous process that considers sound evidence and that is transparent about the agencies’ objectives.

As the Supreme Court held in Allentown Mack Sales & Service, Inc. v. NLRB, “not only must an agency’s decreed result be within the scope of its lawful authority, but the process by which it reaches that result must be logical and rational.”

Furman’s opinion explains that the Trump administration outright violated two federal laws when it added the citizenship question, and that the process it used to approve this question was a procedural trainwreck.

A provision of the Census Act, for example, requires the Census to “‘acquire and use information’ derived from administrative records ‘instead of conducting direct inquiries’ to the ‘maximum extent possible.’” Thus, the Census may not seek information through a questionnaire if it could obtain that information through government records. Yet when Census officials told Ross that existing government records would do a better job of identifying who is a citizen than a citizenship question on the Census, they were ignored.

Similarly, another provision of federal law requires “that the Secretary report to the  relevant congressional committees, at least three years before the ‘census date’ for a given census, all ‘subjects proposed to be included, and the types of information to be compiled.’” Yet Ross did not give Congress the required three years notice that he intended to include a citizenship question.

Judge Furman’s opinion also reveals a slipshod process at the Department of Commerce, where senior officials often acted as if damaging evidence simply did not exist. To give one example:

Secretary Ross’s explanations for his decision [to add the citizenship question] were unsupported by, or even counter to, the evidence before the agency. For instance, he sought to justify his decision on the ground that “no one provided evidence that reinstating a citizenship question on the decennial census would materially decrease response rates.” But that assertion is simply untrue. The Administrative Record is rife with both quantitative and qualitative evidence, from the Census Bureau itself, demonstrating that the addition of a citizenship question to the census questionnaire would indeed materially reduce response rates among immigrant and Hispanic households.

Among other things, “the Census Bureau calculated in January 2018 that adding a citizenship question to the 2020 census was likely to lead to a 5.1% differential decrease in self-response rates among noncitizen households.”

On top of these errors, Judge Furman’s opinion also includes an entire section that — while shying away from using such charged language — walks right up to the edge of accusing Secretary Ross of lying.

Ross claimed that the real reason for adding the citizenship question is because the Justice Department requested it to help with Voting Rights Act enforcement. As Furman writes, however, “the evidence is clear that Secretary Ross’s rationale was pretextual — that is, that the real reason for his decision was something other than the sole reason he put forward in his Memorandum, namely enhancement of DOJ’s VRA enforcement efforts.” Among other things, according to Furman, the evidence shows that “Secretary Ross had made the decision to add the citizenship question well before DOJ requested its addition in December 2017.”

The dog that didn’t bark

It’s also worth noting what Furman did not hold in his opinion. Some of the plaintiffs in this case argued that the citizenship question was unconstitutional because the decision to add it was motivated by racist or other impermissible intentions. To this claim, Furman writes that “although the Court finds that Secretary Ross’s decision was pretextual, it is unable to find, on the record before it, that the decision was a pretext for impermissible discrimination.”

Furman adds that he is unable to find that Ross acted with invidious intent because an October order from the Supreme Court prevented plaintiffs from deposing Ross. Without that deposition, it is difficult to probe what was in Ross’ heart when he added the citizenship question.

Yet while this holding leaves the plaintiffs without one ground for their victory, Furman’s caution may serve them well in the long run. Republicans on the Supreme Court are extraordinarily hostile to claims that a public official acted with racist intent. Indeed, three members of the Court — Justice Clarence Thomas, Justice Samuel Alito, and Neil Gorsuch — all tried to halt this trial before Furman could reach a decision.

But the Supreme Court’s Republicans tend to be much more sympathetic to claims that a federal agency violated the Administrative Procedure Act. By shying away from the hot-button constitutional issue, in other words, Furman made it more likely that his decision will survive additional review.

Furman’s order will appeal first to the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit. Given the national importance of the decennial census, however, it is all but certain that this case will ultimately be reviewed by the Supreme Court. The question is whether all five of the Supreme Court’s Republicans will be willing to look the other way at the haphazard process the Trump administration used to approve the citizenship question.

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Donald Trump and His Team of Morons Print
Tuesday, 15 January 2019 13:34

Krugman writes: "There have been many policy disasters over the course of U.S. history. It's hard, however, to think of a calamity as gratuitous, an error as unforced, as the current federal shutdown."

Economist Paul Krugman. (photo: Getty Images)
Economist Paul Krugman. (photo: Getty Images)


Donald Trump and His Team of Morons

By Paul Krugman, The New York Times

15 January 19


Nobody left besides those with no reputation to lose.

here have been many policy disasters over the course of U.S. history. It’s hard, however, to think of a calamity as gratuitous, an error as unforced, as the current federal shutdown.

Nor can I think of another disaster as thoroughly personal, as completely owned by one man. When Donald Trump told Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, “I will be the one to shut it down,” he was being completely accurate — although he went on to promise that “I’m not going to blame you for it,” which was a lie.

Still, no man is an island, although Trump comes closer than most. You can’t fully make sense of his policy pratfalls without acknowledging the extraordinary quality of the people with whom he has surrounded himself. And by “extraordinary,” of course, I mean extraordinarily low quality. Lincoln had a team of rivals; Trump has a team of morons.

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A Planet in Crisis: The Heat's on Us Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=49961"><span class="small">Dahr Jamail, TomDispatch</span></a>   
Tuesday, 15 January 2019 13:34

Jamail writes: "I'm standing atop Rush Hill on Alaska's remote St. Paul Island. While only 665 feet high, it provides a 360-degree view of this tundra-covered, 13-mile-long, seven-mile-wide part of the Pribilof Islands."

Northern fur seal rookery on the island of St. Paul in the Pribilof Islands off the coast of Alaska. (photo: Dahr Jamail)
Northern fur seal rookery on the island of St. Paul in the Pribilof Islands off the coast of Alaska. (photo: Dahr Jamail)


A Planet in Crisis: The Heat's on Us

By Dahr Jamail, TomDispatch

15 January 19

 


Note for TomDispatch Readers: Here’s our first special offer of 2019 -- and it is indeed a special one. For a donation of $100 ($125 if you live outside the U.S.), you can get a signed, personalized copy of Dahr Jamail’s just-published book, The End of Ice. Its focus is a subject -- perhaps the subject -- on which we all have to become better informed: climate change. His new book, which I’ve just read, couldn’t be a better place to start. TomDispatch author and naturalist William DeBuys has this to say about it: “In a sane world The End of Ice would be the end of lame excuses that climate change is too abstract to get worked up about. From the Arctic to the Amazon, from doomed Miami to the Great Barrier Reef, Dahr Jamail brings every frontier in our ongoing calamity into close focus. The losses are tangible. And so is the grief. This is more than a good book. It is a wise one.” Note that the offer will only last about a week, so visit our donation page soon to check out the details.

-Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch


’m standing atop Rush Hill on Alaska's remote St. Paul Island. While only 665 feet high, it provides a 360-degree view of this tundra-covered, 13-mile-long, seven-mile-wide part of the Pribilof Islands. While the hood of my rain jacket flaps in the cold wind, I gaze in wonder at the silvery waters of the Bering Sea. The ever-present wind whips the surface into a chaos of whitecaps, scudding mist, and foam.

The ancient cinder cone I’m perched on reminds me that St. Paul, was, oh so long ago, one of the last places woolly mammoths could be found in North America. I’m here doing research for my book The End of Ice. And that, in turn, brings me back to the new reality in these far northern waters: as cold as they still are, human-caused climate disruption is warming them enough to threaten a possible collapse of the food web that sustains this island’s Unangan, its Aleut inhabitants, also known as “the people of the seal.” Given how deeply their culture is tied to a subsistence lifestyle coupled with the new reality that the numbers of fur seals, seabirds, and other marine life they hunt or fish are dwindling, how could this crisis not be affecting them?

While on St. Paul, I spoke with many tribal elders who told me stories about fewer fish and sea birds, harsher storms and warming temperatures, but what struck me most deeply were their accounts of plummeting fur seal populations. Seal mothers, they said, had to swim so much farther to find food for their pups that the babies were starving to death before they could make it back.

And the plight of those dramatically declining fur seals could well become the plight of the Unangan themselves, which in the decades to come, as climate turbulence increases, could very well become the plight of all of us.

Just before flying to St. Paul, I met with Bruce Wright in Anchorage, Alaska. He’s a senior scientist with the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, has worked for the National Marine Fisheries Service, and was a section chief for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 11 years. "We're not going to stop this train wreck," he assures me grimly. "We are not even trying to slow down the production of CO2 [carbon dioxide], and there is already enough CO2 in the atmosphere.”

While describing the warming, ever more acidic waters around Alaska and the harm being caused to the marine food web, he recalled a moment approximately 250 million years ago when the oceans underwent similar changes and the planet experienced mass extinction events “driven by ocean acidity. The Permian mass extinction where 90% of the species were wiped out, that is what we are looking at now."

I wrap up the interview with a heavy heart, place my laptop in my satchel, put on my jacket, and shake his hand. Knowing I’m about to fly to St. Paul, Wright has one final thing to tell me as he walks me out: "The Pribilofs were the last place mammoths survived because there weren’t any people out there to hunt them. We’ve never experienced this, where we are headed. Maybe the islands will become a refuge for a population of humans."

The Loss Upon Us

For at least two decades, I've found my solace in the mountains. I lived in Alaska from 1996 to 2006 and more than a year of my life has been spent climbing on the glaciers of Denali and other peaks in the Alaska Range. Yet that was a bittersweet time for me as the dramatic impacts of climate change were quickly becoming apparent, including quickly receding glaciers and warmer winter temperatures.

After years of war and then climate-change reporting, I regularly withdrew to the mountains to catch my breath. As I filled my lungs with alpine air, my heart would settle down and I could feel myself root back into the Earth.

Later, my book research would take me back onto Denali's fast-shrinking glaciers and also to Glacier National Park in Montana. There I met Dr. Dan Fagre, a U.S. Geological Survey research ecologist and director of the Climate Change in Mountain Ecosystems Project. "This is an explosion," he assured me, "a nuclear explosion of geologic change. This... exceeds the ability for normal adaptation. We've shoved it into overdrive and taken our hands off the wheel." Despite its name, the park he studies is essentially guaranteed not to have any active glaciers by 2030, only 11 years from now.

My research also took me to the University of Miami, Coral Gables, where I met the chair of the Department of Geological Science, Harold Wanless, an expert in sea-level rise.

I asked him what he would say to people who think we still have time to mitigate the impacts of runaway climate change. "We can't undo this," he replied. "How are you going to cool down the ocean? We're already there."

As if to underscore the point, Wanless told me that, in the past, carbon dioxide had varied from roughly 180 to 280 parts per million (ppm) in the atmosphere as the Earth shifted from glacial to interglacial periods. Linked to this 100-ppm fluctuation was about a 100-foot change in sea level. "Every 100-ppm CO2 increase in the atmosphere gives us 100 feet of sea level rise," he told me. "This happened when we went in and out of the Ice Age."

As I knew, since the industrial revolution began, atmospheric CO2 has already increased from 280 to 410 ppm. "That’s 130 ppm in just the last 200 years," I pointed out to him. "That’s 130 feet of sea level rise that’s already baked into Earth's climate system."

He looked at me and nodded grimly. I couldn’t help thinking of that as a nod goodbye to coastal cities from Miami to Shanghai.

In July 2017, I traveled to Camp 41 in the heart of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, part of a project founded four decades ago by Thomas Lovejoy, known to many as the "godfather of biodiversity." While visiting him, I also met Vitek Jirinec, an ornithologist from the Czech Republic who had held 11 different wildlife positions from Alaska to Jamaica. In the process, he became all too well acquainted with the signs of biological collapse among the birds he was studying. He'd watched as some Amazon populations like that of the black-tailed leaftosser declined by 95%; he'd observed how mosquitoes in Hawaii were killing off native bird populations; he'd explored how saltwater intrusion into Alaska's permafrost was changing bird habitats there.

His tone turned somber as we discussed his research and a note of anger slowly crept into his voice. "The problem of animal and plant populations left marooned within various fragments [of their habitat] under circumstances that are untenable for the long term has begun showing up all over the land surface of the planet. The familiar questions recur: How many mountain gorillas inhabit the forested slopes of the Virunga volcanoes, along the shared borders of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Rwanda? How many tigers live in the Sariska Tiger Reserve of northwestern India? How many are left? How long can they survive?"

As he continued, the anger in his voice became palpable, especially when he began discussing how “island biogeography” had come to the mainland and what was happening to animal populations marooned by human development on fragments of land in places like the Amazon. "How many grizzly bears occupy the North Cascades ecosystem, a discrete patch of mountain forest along the northern border of the state of Washington? Not enough. How many European brown bears are there in Italy's Abruzzo National Park? Not enough. How many Florida panthers in Big Cypress Swamp? Not enough. How many Asiatic lions in the Forest of Gir? Not enough... The world is broken in pieces now.”

"A Terrifying 12 Years"

In October 2018, 15 months after Jirinec's words brought me to tears in the Amazon, the world's leading climate scientists authored a report for the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warning us that we have just a dozen years left to limit the catastrophic impacts of climate change. The gist of it is this: we’ve already warmed the planet one degree Celsius. If we fail to limit that warming process to 1.5 degrees, even a half-degree more than that will significantly worsen extreme heat, flooding, widespread droughts, and sea level increases, among other grim phenomena. The report has become a key talking point of political progressives in the U.S., who, like journalist and activist Naomi Klein, are now speaking of "a terrifying 12 years" left in which to cut fossil fuel emissions.

There is, however, a problem with even this approach. It assumes that the scientific conclusions in the IPCC report are completely sound. It’s well known, however, that there’s been a political element built into the IPCC’s scientific process, based on the urge to get as many countries as possible on board the Paris climate agreement and other attempts to rein in climate change. To do that, such reports tend to use the lowest common denominator in their projections, which makes their science overly conservative (that is, overly optimistic).

In addition, new data suggest that the possibility of political will coalescing across the planet to shift the global economy completely off fossil fuels in the reasonably near future is essentially a fantasy. And that’s even if we could remove enough of the hundreds of billions of tons of CO2 already in our overburdened atmosphere to make a difference (not to speak of the heat similarly already lodged in the oceans).

"It's extraordinarily challenging to get to the 1.5 degree Celsius target and we are nowhere near on track to doing that," Drew Shindell, a Duke University climate scientist and a co-author of the IPCC report, told the Guardian just weeks before it was released. "While it's technically possible, it’s extremely improbable, absent a real sea change in the way we evaluate risk. We are nowhere near that."

In fact, even best-case scenarios show us heading for at least a three-degree warming and, realistically speaking, we are undoubtedly on track for far worse than that by 2100, if not much sooner. Perhaps that’s why Shindell was so pessimistic.

For example, a study published in Nature magazine, also released in October, showed that over the last quarter-century, the oceans have absorbed 60% more heat annually than estimated in the 2014 IPCC report. The study underscored that the globe’s oceans have, in fact, already absorbed 93% of all the heat humans have added to the atmosphere, that the climate system's sensitivity to greenhouse gases is far higher than thought and that planetary warming is far more advanced than had previously been grasped.

To give you an idea of how much heat the oceans have absorbed: if that heat had instead gone into the atmosphere, the global temperature would be 97 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it is today. For those who think that there are still 12 years left to change things, the question posed by Wanless seems painfully apt: How do we remove all the heat that’s already been absorbed by the oceans?

Two weeks after that Nature article came out, a study in Scientific Reports warned that the extinction of animal and plant species thanks to climate change could lead to a "domino effect" that might, in the end, annihilate life on the planet. It suggested that organisms will die out at increasingly rapid rates because they depend on other species that are also on their way out. It’s a process the study calls "co-extinction." According to its authors, a five to six degree Celsius rise in average global temperatures might be enough to annihilate most of Earth’s living creatures.

To put this in perspective: just a two degree rise will leave dozens of the world's coastal mega-cities flooded, thanks primarily to melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, as well as the thermal expansion of the oceans as they warm. There will be 32 times as many heat waves in India and nearly half a billion more people will suffer water scarcity. At three degrees, southern Europe will be in permanent drought and the area burned annually by wildfires in the U.S. will sextuple. These impacts, it’s worth noting, may already be baked into the system, even if every country that signed the Paris climate accord were to fully honor its commitments, which most of them are not currently doing.

At four degrees, global grain yields could drop by half, most likely resulting in annual worldwide food crises (along with far more war, general conflict, and migration than at present).

The International Energy Agency has already shown that maintaining our current fossil-fueled economic system would virtually guarantee a six-degree rise in the Earth’s temperature before 2050. To add insult to injury, a 2017 analysis from oil giants BP and Shell indicated that they expected the planet to be five degrees warmer by mid-century.

In late 2013, I wrote a piece for TomDispatch titled "Are We Falling Off the Climate Precipice?" Even then, it was already clear enough that we were indeed heading off that cliff. More than five years later, a sober reading of the latest climate change science indicates that we are now genuinely in free fall.

The question is no longer whether or not we are going to fail, but how are we going to comport ourselves in the era of failure?

Listening While Saying Goodbye

It’s been estimated that between 150 and 200 plant, insect, bird, and mammal species are already going extinct every day. In other words, during the two and a half years I worked on my book 136,800 species may have gone extinct.

We have a finite amount of time left to coexist with significant parts of the biosphere, including glaciers, coral, and thousands of species of plants, animals, and insects. We’re going to have to learn how to say goodbye to them, part of which should involve doing everything we humanly can to save whatever is left, even knowing that the odds are stacked against us.

For me, my goodbyes will involve spending as much time as I can on the glaciers in Washington State’s Olympic National Park and North Cascades National Park near where I live, or far more modestly taking in the trees around my home on a daily basis. It’s unclear, after all, how much longer such forest areas are likely to remain fully intact. I often visit a small natural altar I’ve created amid a circle of cedar trees growing around a decomposing mother tree. In this magical spot, I grieve and express my gratitude for the life that is still here. I also go to listen.

Where do you go to listen? And what are you hearing?

For me, these days, it all begins and ends with doing my best to listen to the Earth, with trying my hardest to understand how best to serve, how to devote myself to doing everything possible for the planet, no matter the increasingly bleak prognosis for this time in human history.

Perhaps if we listen deeply enough and regularly enough, we ourselves will become the song this planet needs to hear.

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