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FOCUS: The Virus Will Win Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=54687"><span class="small">Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic</span></a>   
Sunday, 14 June 2020 11:50

Mounk writes: "Americans are pretending that the pandemic is over. It certainly is not."

People eat at a restaurant along Ocean Drive in Miami Beach, Florida. (photo: Joe Raedle/Getty)
People eat at a restaurant along Ocean Drive in Miami Beach, Florida. (photo: Joe Raedle/Getty)


The Virus Will Win

By Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic

14 June 20

 

ut neither the impact of mass protests over police brutality nor the effect of the recent reopening of much of the country—including the casinos in Las Vegas—is reflected in the latest numbers. It can take at least 10 days for people to develop symptoms and seek out a test, and for the results to be aggregated and disseminated by public-health authorities.

Even so, the disease is slowly starting to recede from the public’s attention. After months of dominating media coverage, COVID-19 has largely disappeared from the front pages of most national newspapers. In recent polls, the number of people who favor “reopening the economy as soon as possible” over “staying home as long as necessary” has increased. And so it is perhaps no surprise that even states where the number of new infections stands at an all-time high are pressing ahead with plans to lift many restrictions on businesses and mass gatherings.

When the first wave of COVID-19 was threatening to overwhelm the medical system, back in March, the public’s fear and uncertainty were far more intense than they are now. So was the reason to hope that some magic bullet might rescue us from the worst ravages of the disease.

At this point, such hopes look unrealistic. After months of intense research, an effective treatment for COVID-19 still does not exist. A vaccine is, even if we get lucky, many months away from deployment. Because the virus is spreading especially rapidly in parts of the Southern Hemisphere, from Latin America to Africa, heat is clearly no impediment to its dissemination.

Perhaps most important, it is now difficult to imagine that anybody could muster the political will to impose a full-scale lockdown for a second time. As one poll in Pennsylvania found, nearly nine out of 10 Republicans trusted “the information you hear about coronavirus from medical experts” back in April. Now just about one in three does. With public opinion more polarized than it was a few months ago, and the presidential election looming, any attempt to deal with a resurgence of the virus is likely to be even more haphazard, contentious, and ineffective than it was the first time around.

In the fullness of time, many books will be written about why a country as rich, powerful, and scientifically advanced as the United States failed quite so badly at coping with a public-health emergency that experts had predicted for many years. As is always the case, competing explanations will quickly emerge. Some will focus on the incompetence of the Trump administration, while others will draw attention to the country’s loss of state capacity; some will argue that the United States is an outlier, while others will put its failure in the context of other countries, such as Brazil and Russia, that are also faring poorly.

I do not intend to offer a first draft of history. We are too close to the events to judge, with a cool head, which factors are most responsible for putting us in our current tragic situation. But I would like to offer a partial list of individuals and institutions who, however central or peripheral their contribution to the ultimate outcome, have helped to get us into this mess:

If the virus wins, it is because the World Health Organization downplayed the threat for far too long.

If the virus wins, it is because Donald Trump was more interested in hushing up bad news that might hurt the economy than in saving American lives.

If the virus wins, it is because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, created to deal with just this kind of emergency, has proved to be too bureaucratic and incompetent to do its job.

If the virus wins, it is because the White House did not even attempt to put a test-and-trace regime into place at the federal level.

Although we do not yet know the effect of more recent events on the course of the pandemic, or what exactly will happen in the coming weeks and months, the list of culprits will likely be even longer than that.

If the virus wins, it may also be because Derek Chauvin kept his knee on George Floyd’s neck for eight minutes and 46 seconds as Floyd was pleading for his life, setting off protests that—as righteous as they are—could well result in mass infections.

If the virus wins, it may also be because 1,200 public-health experts obfuscated the mortal risk that these mass protests would pose to the most vulnerable among us by declaring not only (as would be reasonable) that they supported them as citizens, but also (which is highly implausible) that they had determined, as scientists, that they would actively serve “the national public health.”

If the virus wins, it may also be because so many states moved to reopen before getting the pace of infections under control.

If the virus wins, it may also be because the right-wing-media echo chamber is starting to downplay the risk that a second wave poses to Americans.

If the virus does win, then, it is because American elites, experts, and institutions have fallen short—and continue to fall short—of the grave responsibility with which they are entrusted in ways too innumerable to list.

About a month ago, I started to write a very different article. “Is it possible,” I wondered, “that with the benefit of hindsight, this cruel period will seem rather more heroic than is obvious to its contemporaries? One thing is clear: If we had let the virus rip through the population unchecked, the consequences would have been unspeakable. But if—a big if—we manage to contain the pandemic, and avert millions of deaths, it would constitute one of the greatest achievements in human history.”

Hoping to publish the article in The Atlantic, I kept waiting for the situation in the United States to recover sufficiently to justify my guarded optimism. But that moment never arrived. Now it feels more remote than ever.

We were on the brink of doing something incredible. And much of the credit for that would have gone to the many ordinary citizens who lived up to their moral responsibility in an extraordinary moment.

Scientists have desperately searched for a vaccine. Despite the real risks to their health, doctors, nurses, cooks, cleaners, and clerical staff have reported for duty in their hospitals. Suddenly declared “essential,” workers who have long enjoyed little respect and low wages helped to keep society afloat.

For the rest of us, the order of the day was simply to stay at home and slow the spread. It was a modest task, which made it all the more galling that some people fell short. But this nitpick obscures how many people did do what they could to get us all through the crisis: They checked in with their relatives and cooked for the elderly. They took to their balconies to thank health-care workers or sang songs to cheer up the neighbors. By and large, they stayed at home and slowed the spread.

Thanks to the effort of millions of people, we were close to a great success story. But because of the failures of Trump and Chauvin, of the CDC and the WHO, of public-health experts and Fox News hosts, we are, instead, likely to give up—and tolerate that hundreds of thousands of our fellow citizens will die needless deaths.

Pandemics reveal the true state of a society. Ours has come up badly wanting.

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FOCUS: As Calls to Defund the Police Grow Louder, Joe Biden Wants to Give Them More Money Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=39027"><span class="small">Alice Speri, The Intercept</span></a>   
Sunday, 14 June 2020 11:35

Speri writes: "As tens of thousands of Americans have descended into streets for nearly two weeks to protest police violence, they have articulated a clear demand among the calls for justice and accountability: defund the police."

Joe Biden. (photo: Frank Franklin II/AP)
Joe Biden. (photo: Frank Franklin II/AP)


As Calls to Defund the Police Grow Louder, Joe Biden Wants to Give Them More Money

By Alice Speri, The Intercept

14 June 20

 

s tens of thousands of Americans have descended into streets for nearly two weeks to protest police violence, they have articulated a clear demand among the calls for justice and accountability: defund the police.

In a matter of days, the demand some groups had been raising for years — that officials reallocate resources from police terrorizing communities to invest in initiatives and social services that keep those communities safe — became a rallying cry that pushed city councils to reevaluate their budget proposals and forced some mayors who had at first disdained the idea to give in. For the most part, campaigns to defund police have been aimed at local governments, which control police departments and their budgets — some $100 billion annually nationwide.

But on Wednesday, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, in a striking rejection of the growing movement demanding better use of public dollars, reminded Americans that there is also plenty of money for police coming from the federal government when he called for an additional $300 million in federal incentives “to reinvigorate community policing in our country.”

“I do not support defunding police,” Biden wrote in an op-ed for USA Today. “The better answer is to give police departments the resources they need to implement meaningful reforms, and to condition other federal dollars on completing those reforms. … Every single police department should have the money they need to institute real reforms.”

As the force of the defund police movement has taken some by surprise, Biden has hardly been the only politician to seek to defend the status quo. Even his one-time rival, Sen. Bernie Sanders, indicated in a recent interview that he objected calls to defund the police. “I think we want to redefine what police departments do, give them the support they need to make their jobs better defined,” said Sanders. “So I do believe that we need well-trained, well-educated, and well-paid professionals in police departments.”

That’s what officials have promised for years. Proponents of police reform, including some who sit on Biden’s criminal justice task force, have been pitching solutions to police violence that include more resources for police at least since the 2014 police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. The protests that followed ushered in an era of massive investment, much of it with federal dollars, to pay for things like bias training, as well as body cameras and, especially, more officers to staff “community policing” initiatives flooding already over-policed neighborhoods and schools.

These proponents usually call for “procedural” reforms that do little to tackle the underlying problems of the institution itself, said Alex Vitale, author of “The End of Policing.”

“Procedural justice is the idea that if police take the time to explain what they’re doing, hear your side of the story, act in a professional manner, that people are going to accept police actions,” Vitale told The Intercept, “and therefore that you can reform the police by making them more professional and nicer, and people won’t question them or protest them, and they will let the police go back to doing what they do with no interrogation whatsoever of whether or not what the police is doing is actually right.”

While an industry of consultants has boomed around police reform, those who have been calling for an end to police violence for years say the police reforms Biden is once again proposing have already failed. Minneapolis, which starting in 2014 received millions of dollars in federal funding as part of the pilot National Initiative for Building Community Trust and Justice, is a poster child for such a failure, and community members there have been demanding — and so far, winning — a much more radical approach to ending police violence by reducing the presence of police altogether.

But as communities across the country push their local officials to redraw next year’s budgets, a number of groups have also begun calling on Congress to do its part to defund the police.

In a letter sent this week to the House Judiciary Committee, a coalition of national advocacy and local grassroots organizations have called on representatives to “permanently end and cease any funding to local law enforcement in any form.”

Specifically, the group called on Congress to defund the COPS Program — which stands for “Community Oriented Policing Services” — a federal initiative that critics have long accused of hiding behind the sweet-sounding notion of police developing relationships with communities while de facto flooding those communities with more officers. “The COPS Program has helped precipitate the policing crisis that we find ourselves in today,” the group wrote. “This is money that should have gone directly to people instead of policing.”

The COPS Program was established as part of the 1994 Crime Bill and to date has granted more than $14 billion to state and local governments, much of it used to hire more police. In the first few years of its existence, it contributed to the swelling of local law enforcement agencies by some 100,000 officers. The program has also funded new equipment and technology for police across the country and has resulted in the escalation of militarized SWAT teams even in small-town departments.

Just last week, as the nation was reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 crisis and as protests against police violence raged, the COPS office announced almost $400 million in grants to hire nearly 3,000 new police officers in more than 500 agencies across the country. And the $300 million Biden is now calling for comes in addition to $300 million that was just allocated to COPS as part of the HEROES Act for Covid-19 relief.

“What’s been particularly insidious about the COPS program is that the name masks what is really happening, which is that we’re essentially just flooding the streets in communities of our country with more and more police under the guise that it is going to be community-oriented,” said Kumar Rao, director of the Justice Transformation Program at the Center for Popular Democracy, one of the letter’s signatories. “It’s obvious to anyone living in communities across this country that are heavily policed that there has been nothing about policing that has been community-oriented, and the actions of this last week have revealed that in dramatic fashion to even people who have not been living under this heavy policing apparatus.”

While COPS provides federal incentives for local governments to hire more police, those governments are then left to pay for the cost of keeping the officers when the federal funds expire. “So we’re getting $100 million of ‘free’ money to hire police officers,” said Rao. “But two years later, you have a dozen new police officers on the force, and you need to pay their salaries and their pensions and their overtime and their brutality settlements with local money.” In some cities, the cost of police already eats up more than 50 percent of the local budget.

Defunding COPS is part of a broader push, by a growing number of groups, to dismantle and replace the 1994 Crime Bill itself. It is only one of several federal initiatives that advocates want to end; another is the Department of Defense’s 1033 program, which transfers equipment from the military to police and which critics say has contributed to certain communities’ perception of police as an occupying force. Advocates are also calling for an end to Operation Relentless Pursuit, a $71 million initiative that was introduced by Attorney General Bill Barr in December and aims to increase the number of federal law officers in seven “of the country’s most violent cities,” according to the FBI’s announcement of the initiative. And they want Congress to reexamine the Byrne Memorial Justice Assistance Grant Program and other federal grants that fund a criminal justice system they say has long failed to deliver either safety or justice.

“Federal resources that continue to perpetuate police violence and harm against Black and Brown communities must end,” the American Civil Liberties Union wrote in a statement earlier this week, as it also called for defunding COPS and other programs. “Congress must reinvest those dollars into resources that end systemic racism, inequality, and disparities in Black and Brown communities. Congress must invest in true health and safety in communities that have for too long been harmed by the status quo.”

Learning From Schools

As the movement to defund the police picks up momentum, those looking to learn from the experiences of past divestment campaigns can look to efforts to get police out of schools as a blueprint. One of the most immediate outcomes of the Minneapolis protests was the decision by the local school board to end its relationship with the Minneapolis Police Department. Days later, the Minneapolis City Council announced plans to dismantle the department altogether.

“In the last few weeks, we’ve seen suddenly an echoing of the defunding police narrative across the country,” said Dmitri Holtzman, director of Education Justice Campaigns at the Center for Popular Democracy. “But where some of the most specific articulations and policy pushes around the broader defunding police framework have gotten most traction has been at the school board level and specifically around police-free schools.”

“School is a microcosm of society,” he added. “There is actually a very clear path towards abolishing police in schools, which I think presents an opportunity for the broader movement as we think about defunding police more broadly.”

Through the 1994 Crime Bill, the federal government has played a leading role in the escalation of school-based police. COPS, for instance, has provided some $1 billion for law enforcement initiatives in schools, most of it going toward the hiring of “school safety officers.” As The Intercept has previously reported, school-based police have greatly contributed to the criminalization of children, and their presence has proved particularly devastating to students of color and undocumented students.

But schools are also where calls to redirect funds from police to initiatives that keep students safe and thriving, like mental health counseling and job programs, have been the longest running and most successful. In Milwaukee, for instance, black students have led a campaign to rewrite the public school system’s racist discipline code. They have also won a $1 million divestment from school-based police, reducing the number of police officers in their schools from 16 to six, said Dakota Hall, executive director of Leaders Igniting Transformation, the youth group behind the effort. The group has now joined others across the country in calling for an end to federal incentives to police, particularly school-based police, and for a reinvestment of more than $300 billion into K-12 education.

“Congress was the genesis for a lot of this with their programs in the ’90s that were tough on crime,” said Hall, in reference to the criminalization of youth of color. “So they have a very important role to play in the defunding of police departments, as well as removing cops from schools.”

Hall noted that Milwaukee students were continuing to put pressure on state and local officials, for instance, calling for the repeal of a “truancy abatement and burglary suppression” state law that mandates that Milwaukee schools must have police. But Congress, he added, needed to do more.

“The accountability has been placed on the shoulders of local officials,” he said. “And many senators in Congress, people who are still in office who voted for these bills back in the ’90s … they definitely should be held accountable as well.”

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A Guy Named Craig May Soon Control a Large Swath of Utah Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=35861"><span class="small">Bill McKibben, The New Yorker</span></a>   
Sunday, 14 June 2020 08:47

McKibben writes: "It's what we think about when we think about 'the West,' a truly mythic place."

Bill McKibben. (photo: Wolfgang Schmidt)
Bill McKibben. (photo: Wolfgang Schmidt)


A Guy Named Craig May Soon Control a Large Swath of Utah

By Bill McKibben, The New Yorker

14 June 20

 

ven if you’ve never been to the vast red-rock desert country around Moab, Utah, you’ve been there—its mesas and buttes, its towering arches, have been the backdrop for a thousand movies (and even more S.U.V. commercials). It’s what we think about when we think about “the West,” a truly mythic place. Some of it has been protected in national monuments and parks: Arches and Canyonlands. But the fate of a large swath of it, though nominally belonging to the American people, may soon fall to a guy named Craig Larson.

Here’s the story so far. Under a long-standing law known as the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920, anyone can “nominate” a parcel of federal land for oil-and-gas development—it doesn’t cost a thing. The rules are so lax that you don’t even have to supply your name if you want to nominate a piece of land, but Prairie Hills Oil & Gas did provide at least that much context when it asked the federal Bureau of Land Management to set aside land between Arches and Canyonlands. Prairie Hills Oil & Gas, of North Dakota, it turns out, is headquartered at a home that Larson, an attorney, co-owns in Big Lake, Minnesota, about forty miles northwest of Minneapolis. After the land is nominated, and certain review processes are completed, the B.L.M. moves to set up a lease auction, which, in the case of Larson and Utah, is scheduled for September. (Although Larson has nominated the parcels, anyone, in fact, could be the ultimate winning bidder.)

The minimum competitive bid for an acre is two dollars, and that’s often the price it goes for in areas like Moab—the prospects are far from guaranteed. The lease has a term of ten years, and, after the gavel comes down, the annual rental fee per acre would be a dollar and a half for the first five years, and two dollars for the second. As Steve Bloch, of the Southern Utah Wilderness Alliance, explained it to me, “If Company A buys a hundred-acre lease, they will write B.L.M. a check for five hundred and twenty dollars.” That would include the bid, the first-year rental rate, and an administrative fee. If the company drills for oil and gas, it also pays the government a royalty of 12.5 per cent on the production, and the lease can be extended.

I recently called Larson to ask him about the company’s plans, and he couldn’t have been more polite or more unhelpful.

“I was curious how it was you decided to ask for those leases,” I said.

“You know, I really don’t have much to add than what we’ve done as far as the nominations,” he answered.

“Are you worried about the local Native American groups? Some have been upset.”

“I don’t really have anything more to say about it other than that our actions are public record.”

“What are the next steps in the disposition?”

“It’s up to the B.L.M. to decide the next steps.”

“Does the current economic environment around oil and gas give you pause?”

“I guess our actions speak for themselves, and I really don’t have much more to add. . . .”

“These aren’t technical or legal questions. I was trying to get at whether you took seriously the things people were raising.”

“I understand.”

Larson does not seem like a villain to me here, and he’s done nothing illegal. In fact, what’s preposterous is how entirely legal it all is. The law itself is the crime—a gift to the oil and gas businesses. It awards the industry chunks of federal land through a process designed to move real estate out of public control as easily as possible. Perhaps you could argue that, a century ago, it was an improvement over the previously unregulated disorder that gave industrialists almost literal free rein over the landscape, in that it provided at least some government oversight. But now?

Now Moab, a city of some five thousand people, makes a lot of money each year from mountain bikers and rafters, from people coming to visit the parks—though not during a pandemic. It’s world-famous for its dark skies; an Instagram capital of Milky Way viewing. Will oil wells flaring off gas help that business? “When you look at that map it just sends chills up your spine,” the chairwoman of the local county council told Bloomberg Law. (She also asked, “Why would you put an oil well in the center of a Picasso or van Gogh?”)

Now the world is awash in oil. The pandemic crash could mean that the planet reached peak oil demand in 2019, and that, as economic recovery follows, any new growth in energy supplies is likely to come from solar and wind power.

And now, above all, the world is overheating, and dangerously; the last thing it needs is more oil. The rivers of the Southwest are perfect examples of the mortal peril we now face. Moab is situated in the Colorado Plateau watershed. In February, a new study showed that, over the past century, the flow of the Colorado River was down by twenty per cent, owing mainly to climate change, and that it could fall another twenty per cent by 2050, if we don’t cut emissions. But, instead, as Bloch told me, the Trump Administration is “putting the Interior Department and B.L.M.’s pedal to the floor to sell as many leases as possible.” (A B.L.M. spokesperson said that the agency “follows its congressional mandate regarding lease sales.”) Indeed, the B.L.M. has scheduled nearly twenty oil-and-gas-lease sales on federal land nationwide through the end of 2020, and the Administration has shrunk the size of wildernesses and national monuments, paving the way for more drilling. It is a classic land rush.

The Southwest is not my landscape—I’ve spent my life in the wet mountains of the East, where an unobstructed view comes only if you devote a day to climbing the highest peaks. But I know that others feel entirely at home in that sere, spectacular region. “This land is beautiful,” Davis Filfred, a Navajo leader, told me, as he was delivering groceries to people suffering through the coronavirus pandemic, which has hit the Navajo Nation with particular force. At least, it’s beautiful until the fossil-fuel companies get there. “Where they’ve come, the land is completely contaminated,” Filfred said. “The water base is completely contaminated with petroleum, and with arsenic and selenium. The air—it smells like a rotten egg.” He added, “A hundred years from now—let’s say when my kid’s grandkids are here, we’re robbing them. I want them to see this land as it was Day One.”

I first got to know the region through the writings of Edward Abbey, whose classic book from 1968, “Desert Solitaire,” plays out against that remarkable terrain. “Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit, and as vital to our lives as water and good bread, “ he wrote. “A civilization which destroys what little remains of the wild, the spare, the original, is cutting itself off from its origins and betraying the principle of civilization itself.” I visited Abbey in Moab when I was in my mid-twenties, gathering string for what became my book “The End of Nature.” It was a memorable trip, ripping around desert backroads in a rental car; I was a little overwhelmed both by Abbey’s outsized personality and by the scale of the place itself. (I asked Craig Larson if he’d had a chance to read any Abbey. “I thank you for your call, but I really don’t have anything more to tell you,” he said.) In later years, I’ve gotten to know the land better through the eyes of a dear friend, the writer Terry Tempest Williams, who has succeeded Abbey as the chronicler of that region. I asked her to describe the scene near Moab as spring turns toward summer. “I was up before dawn this morning just watching light touch the desert and fill it with birdsong,” she wrote. “The globe mallow are blooming. Claret cup cactus, too. Clouds like schooners sailing across the blue skies.”

As it happens, Terry and her husband, Brooke, went to a B.L.M. auction in 2016 and tried to lease land—they paid $1,680 for a ten-year lease on 1,120 acres, plus a processing fee, and formed a company, Tempest Exploration L.L.C. (Not all the parcels were leased in the auction, and some were discounted afterward, in a sort of “fire sale.” That’s where Terry and Brooke obtained their lease.) She had no hesitation in explaining her motives, as she wrote in an Op-Ed for the Times, “The energy we hope to produce through Tempest Exploration is not the kind that will destroy our planet, but the kind that will fuel moral imagination. We need to harness this spiritual and political energy to sustain the planet we call home.” They made it clear that they would not drill for oil “until science could show it was worth more above ground than below.” The lease was eventually denied; they appealed, and a decision is still pending, four years later.

Another friend, an environmentalist named Tim DeChristopher, bid for leases on a large area at a competitive Salt Lake City auction, in 2008. He bid $1.8 million, and then said that he had no intention of paying the sum, which he didn’t have. For that, he was sentenced to two years in a federal correctional facility, in California. I visited him there, and remember thinking that Ed Abbey would have been proud of him. (He served twenty-one months, and was released in 2013.) Terry Tempest Williams has been one of his biggest supporters.

Now, finally, something may change. Joe Biden has promised, repeatedly, that, if elected President, he would end new leasing on federal lands for oil, gas, and coal. As he said during a primary debate in March, “No more drilling on federal lands. No more drilling, including offshore. No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill, period.” That would make a massive difference for the climate: fossil fuels pulled from public lands account for about twenty per cent of the nation’s total greenhouse-gas output.

But it would also make a massive difference for those parts of the Utah desert that have lain empty and sublime. I don’t know exactly whom they belong to—Native people, all of us, the coyotes, God? But the answer clearly shouldn’t be some guy named Craig.

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The CDC - Finally - Has New Guidelines for Reducing Covid-19 Risk Post-Lockdowns Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=54686"><span class="small">Brian Resnick, Vox</span></a>   
Sunday, 14 June 2020 08:41

Resnick writes: "At long last, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued new Covid-19 pandemic guidance documents to help the public minimize risk while venturing out into public spaces."

People wearing masks sit at Gantry Plaza State Park, Long Island City with the Manhattan skyline in the background on May 30, 2020. (photo: Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)
People wearing masks sit at Gantry Plaza State Park, Long Island City with the Manhattan skyline in the background on May 30, 2020. (photo: Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)


The CDC - Finally - Has New Guidelines for Reducing Covid-19 Risk Post-Lockdowns

By Brian Resnick, Vox

14 June 20


Lockdowns are largely over. The CDC has new guidelines for being safe out in the world.

t long last, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued new Covid-19 pandemic guidance documents to help the public minimize risk while venturing out into public spaces.

The CDC released two new guidance documents Friday. One is for individuals thinking about leaving the house to engage in activities like going to restaurants, nail salons, gyms, the bank, traveling, and hosting small gatherings like cookouts. The other lists considerations for event planners (with the disclaimer, “these considerations are meant to supplement—not replace—any state, local, territorial, or tribal health and safety laws, rules, and regulations with which gatherings must comply.”)

These new documents come as some areas of the country — notably Arizona, Florida, and the Carolinas — are starting to see indications of new Covid-19 spikes, likely due to relaxed social distancing policies that started weeks ago. Which is to say: Citizens probably could have used them a month ago.

But even now, the CDC’s recommendations are still broadly helpful and useful (although they come with a few omissions). Here are the highlights.

Individuals should wear masks, try to maintain distance from others, and limit the time of their interactions with one another

The main way people are getting sick with SARS-CoV-2 is from respiratory droplets spreading between people in close quarters. Droplets fly from people’s mouths and noses when they breathe, talk, or sneeze. Other people can breathe them in. The dose matter: the more you breathe in, the more likely you are to get sick. That’s the main risk, and that’s why face masks are an essential precaution (they help stop the droplets from spewing far from a person’s mouth or nose).

The CDC’s recommendations for individuals take this droplet spread into account, advocating for universal masking, enthusiastic hand-washing, keeping more than 6 feet away from other people, and limiting the amount of time you spend with other people. Spending more time with people increases risks. (The CDC makes more specific recommendations for activities like dining out, on its website.)

“In general,” the CDC writes, “the more closely you interact with others and the longer that interaction, the higher the risk of Covid-19 spread.”

This all aligns with what experts have told Vox: People should think about Covid-19 risk in four dimensions: distance to other people, environment, activity, and time spent together. More distance is better, outdoors is safer than indoors, activities that involve lots of exhaling (like singing or shouting) are more dangerous than quieter ones, and a longer time spent with others is more dangerous than a shorter time.

Perhaps a helpful way to think about the risk is this: Imagine everyone is smoking, as Ed Yong suggested in the Atlantic, and you’d like to avoid inhaling as much smoke as possible. In a cramped indoor space, that smoke is going to get dense and heavy fast. If the windows are open, some of that smoke will blow away. If fewer people are in the space, less smoke will accumulate, and it might not waft over to you if you’re standing far enough away. But spend a lot of time in an enclosed space with those people, and the smoke grows denser.

The denser the smoke, the more likely it is to affect you. It’s the same with this virus: The more of it you inhale, the more likely you are to get sick.

As always, it’s important to stay home if you think you might have any symptoms of Covid-19. The CDC also recommends people think about their own risk for severe illness, and the risk of people they may be seeing. Older adults still have a greater risk of severe Covid-19 cases, as do people with underlying medical conditions. You may still want to limit time with these groups.

There are a few notable omissions in the CDC’s guidance for events

A lot of the same principles apply in the CDC’s guidance for event planners. More people, more time, more crowds, and less mask wearing result in a more dangerous situation. Plus, the CDC advises, “the higher the level of community transmission in the area that the gathering is being held, the higher the risk of COVID-19 spreading during a gathering.”

For event planners, the CDC also provides guidance for the cleaning of restrooms, the need for ventilation, and modifying event space layouts with physical barriers to ensure social distancing.

There is a big thing, though, experts have pointed out, that the CDC has left out of the document. Notably: The document does not stress that indoor events are a much higher risk than outdoor events.

Speaking on a press call Friday, Jay Butler, the CDC deputy director for infectious diseases, was asked if these guidelines also apply to political rallies (like the ones President Donald Trump plans to soon hold for his supporters). Butler said only that the guidelines “were not intended to endorse any particular type of event.”

It’s hard for any guidelines to be comprehensive

You could read both of the CDC’s new guideline documents and still have some questions. “There’s nothing about precautions to take before going to church, no guidance about dating and sex and no explicit advice on a topic that some doctors say they get asked all the time: Is it OK to take the kids to visit grandparents?” the AP reports. And this is because it is difficult for the agency to lay out recommendations for every scenario.

Life is complicated, and Covid-19 complicates it further. There are endless possibilities you can think of in a risk assessment. So overall, when weighing risks, it’s just good to remember the mechanisms of how Covid-19 spreads (through breath, and close contact), and keep them in mind no matter what situation you’re in. (Though if you want some guidelines for sexual interactions, New York City has you covered.)

Scientists recognize that no activity with other people during a pandemic is perfectly safe. Even an activity with distancing, in a scenario with universal masking, that’s in an outdoor space, does not drop the risk to zero. But still, we need to find a middle ground, and reduce the harm that can result from our actions whenever possible. And these guidelines can help do that.

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Why Trump Loves the US Military - but It Doesn't Love Him Back Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51870"><span class="small">Julian Borger, Guardian UK</span></a>   
Sunday, 14 June 2020 08:36

Borger writes: "When all else fails - and that has happened a lot - the president has embraced the flag and hugged the military. But these days the military is not hugging back."

President Trump exaggerated his administration's gains against the Islamic State in a commencement speech Saturday at the United States Military Academy at West Point. (photo: Anna Moneymaker/NYT)
President Trump exaggerated his administration's gains against the Islamic State in a commencement speech Saturday at the United States Military Academy at West Point. (photo: Anna Moneymaker/NYT)


Why Trump Loves the US Military - but It Doesn't Love Him Back

By Julian Borger, Guardian UK

14 June 20


The president’s West Point speech went smoothly but protests have focused a harsh light on his use of the military

onald Trump attempted to solidify his bond with the US army on Saturday, delivering the graduation speech to cadets at the United States Military Academy and boasting of a “colossal” $2tn rebuilding of American martial might.

Trump’s West Point speech was studiously vapid, with only a modicum of partisan boasting. But the political setting crackled with civil-military tension.

When all else fails – and that has happened a lot – the president has embraced the flag and hugged the military. But these days the military is not hugging back. It stands to attention as duty demands, but as inertly as Old Glory, the banner which Trump has taken to fondling at public events.

The president likes to refer to the soldiers around him as “my generals” and “my military”. The possessive pronoun always jarred with the spirit of civ-mil rectitude, even before it became evident how literally Trump interpreted it.

Saturday’s ceremony at West Point was the embodiment of the president’s approach. More than a thousand cadets from the class of 2020 were called back from their homes to the campus, 50 miles north of New York City, despite the coronavirus pandemic, so Trump could give a televised speech.

Fifteen cadets tested positive. The rest had to quarantine for two weeks. The whole show was widely disparaged as stage dressing for Trump’s re-election campaign, days after the president crossed a line in the exploitation of military leaders as props.

On 1 June, the president had the area around the White House cleared of peaceful demonstrators who were protesting police killings of black Americans. Tear gas and other chemical irritants were used as well as rubber bullets, baton charges and mounted police, all so Trump could walk across Lafayette Square to pose with a Bible in front of St John’s, the so-called “church of the presidents”.

In his entourage were the defense secretary, Mark Esper, and the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Gen Mark Milley, the latter dressed in battle fatigues. In the presence of scores of soldiers from the national guard, it certainly looked like Trump’s suppression of peaceful protests was a military operation, in violation of norms that have underpinned US military conduct for a century and a half.

Trump planned to go much further, invoking the 1807 Insurrection Act to deploy an elite combat unit from the 82nd Airborne on the streets of the capital.

“What we have here is an effort to use the military to partisan advantage to the point of potentially putting troops in the streets to confront protesters [and] to present himself as the law and order president, which is a concept with pretty historical racial overtones,” said Risa Brooks, professor of political science at Marquette University.

As the full impact of the photo op debacle dawned, Esper and Milley slammed on the brakes. Esper reportedly came close to being fired, by opposing the use of the Insurrection Act and ordering the 82nd Airborne home. The former army officer and arms trade lobbyist pleaded cluelessness, saying he had no idea he was being roped into a photo-op at St John’s.

This week, in a video address to the National Defense University, Milley apologised for his presence, saying it had been a mistake. In an administration for which absolute personal loyalty is everything, the longevity in office of both men seemed to be in question. They are facing powerful countervailing winds.

A string of retired generals denounced Trump’s behaviour. James Mattis, the marine commander who was Trump’s first defense secretary, accused him of “abuse of executive authority” and making a “mockery of the constitution”.

Ahead of the West Point ceremony, hundreds of its graduates wrote to the class of 2020.

“We are concerned that fellow graduates serving in senior-level, public positions are failing to uphold their oath of office and their commitment to Duty, Honor, Country,” the open letter said, in a reference to Esper, class of 1986. “Their actions threaten the credibility of an apolitical military.”

Peter Bergen, director of international security at the New America think tank, and author of Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos, said: “I think this is the biggest split between the military and the civilian leadership. I can’t recall a time where there was more of a fissure.”

‘A very delicate position’

Such tremors under the pillars of the republic have been amplified by racial tensions, the restless fault line in US society and politics.

The US armed forces reflect the diversity of the nation far more than other institutions. Amid protests over the killing of George Floyd, black officers who posted emotional videos expressing the agonies of bearing witness to systemic racism were backed by the top brass.

The protest movement also gave new impetus to attempts to do away with symbols of the Confederacy. The navy and marine corps banned displays of the Confederate flag and the army has been taking steps to review whether 10 of its bases should be named after Confederate officers.

Alice Hunt Friend, a former senior Pentagon policy official now at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said: “Senior military leaders, both active and retired, are in a very delicate position because they want to maintain their nonpartisanship … but they also want to talk about how important it is for the American military to be anti-racist.”

The widening gap between racially sensitive armed services and a presidency that draws significant support from white nationalists became vividly apparent this week. On Monday, the Pentagon indicated that Esper was considering changes to bases named for Confederate generals. On Wednesday, Trump decreed by tweet: “My Administration will not even consider the renaming of these Magnificent and Fabled Military Installations.”

“Our history as the Greatest Nation in the World will not be tampered with,” he declared. “Respect our Military!”

Respect for the military is a powerful drug in US politics. It has retained the confidence of an overwhelming majority of an electorate largely contemptuous of other institutions. The endorsement of seasoned flag officers is enthusiastically sought at election time, though the actual electoral benefits appear to be marginal.

Trump surrounded himself with generals at the start of his tenure. They have all since fled and are now either critical or silent.

The president is their commander in chief, but their loyalty is to the constitution. They must obey every order Trump gives them, as long as it is legal. In admitting he had been led into crossing that line, Gen Milley signalled he was on guard to stop it happening again.

But that can be a hard judgement to make. What happens, say in October, if Trump is behind in the polls and wants to conjure up a military adventure abroad or a show of strength on US streets?

In October 2018, the army went along with an order to send hundreds of troops to the Mexican border, a couple of weeks before the midterm elections, a move that allowed the president to claim he was taking strong action on immigration.

“There is no way that the senior military leaders are not having a host of really difficult conversations among themselves about what the next six months or so will look like, about what they might be asked to do, and what would be appropriate to do,” said Mara Karlin, former assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, now director of strategic studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

“I think it’s going to be a really bumpy few months.”

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