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FOCUS | The Training Game Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=32900"><span class="small">Scott Ritter, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Saturday, 08 November 2014 09:35

Ritter writes: "The ongoing foreign policy debacle in Iraq and Syria has provided fodder for the Republican critics of President Obama who have blamed him for the collapse of the Iraqi armed forces in the face of aggression from the Islamic State, and the similarly poor performance of the so-called 'Free Syrian Army' despite ongoing covert efforts by the United States to equip and train them."

Former chief weapons inspector in Iraq, Scott Ritter. (photo: Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
Former chief weapons inspector in Iraq, Scott Ritter. (photo: Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


The Training Game

By Scott Ritter, Reader Supported News

07 November 14

 

he ongoing foreign policy debacle in Iraq and Syria has provided fodder for the Republican critics of President Obama who have blamed him for the collapse of the Iraqi armed forces in the face of aggression from the Islamic State, and the similarly poor performance of the so-called "Free Syrian Army" despite ongoing covert efforts by the United States to equip and train them. The principal sources of the Republican discontent are the decisions by the president to withdraw all US combat forces from Iraq in 2011, and his refusal to confront Syria militarily in 2013. Now that the Republicans have gained control of the US Congress, there is the likelihood of increased calls for military engagement in both Iraq and Syria that goes beyond that already undertaken by the Obama administration to confront the Islamic State in those two nations.

Key Republican leaders have been calling for a more aggressive posture by the United States vis-à-vis the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Current US plans call for the launching of a major offensive by Iraqi armed forces against the Islamic State in the spring of 2015, with the goal of driving the jihadists out of their strongholds in Mosul and Anbar provinces, and back onto Syrian soil, where they will be defeated by a 5,000-strong force of "Free Syrian Army" fighters. The effort in Iraq will be aided by a significant presence of American military advisors, backed by robust American air power. In Syria, the CIA will provide covert capability designed to enable "Free Syrian Army" forces to better direct American air strikes against Islamic State forces. Once the Islamic State has been neutralized, the "Free Syrian Army" will turn its attention against Assad. What, if any, role US air power would play in such a scenario has not yet been articulated, but, clearly, the Republicans would like to see some application of US military force to facilitate the removal of Assad from power.

Whether or not the Obama administration will give in to any future Republican pressure to increase the level of US military involvement in Iraq and Syria is yet to be seen. But what is clear is that any military action, including those plans already approved by the Obama administration, hinge on Iraqi and Syrian ground force capability that, for the time being, exists only on paper. The planned spring offensive is built around three Iraqi army divisions -- some 20,000 troops -- and three new Iraqi National Guard brigades -- another 6,000 men -- that have yet to be trained and equipped by the US military. Likewise, the planned 5,000-strong force of "Free Syrian Army" fighters is merely a figment of American creative thinking in so far as such a force has yet to be organized, trained and equipped by US advisors. While there has been a significant expansion of US military presence in Iraq, to include the deployment of thousands of US military advisors whose mission it is to train these new Iraqi forces (both the CIA and the Pentagon remain tight-lipped on how they plan to train and equip the "Free Syrian Army" in time to participate in the planned spring offensive), the fact of the matter is the United States has a poor track record of training the militaries of other nations.

The collapse of the Iraqi army in and around Mosul earlier this year led to a general rout in northern and western Iraq that was halted only when the forces of the Islamic State reached the environs of Baghdad, and the Iraqi government was able to draw upon the assistance of Shi'a militias backed by the Iranian government to block the advance of the jihadists. Between 2004 and 2011, the United States expended more than $25 billion in an effort to train and equip a successor force to the army of Saddam Hussein, which had been disbanded on American orders in the months following the invasion and occupation of Iraq. This new Iraqi army was touted by its American military trainers as being "combat effective" and "capable of independent operations" -- that is, able to close with and engage hostile forces without the advice or assistance of the US military. In its rush to disengage from Iraq, the Obama administration paraded a host of military officers, including General David Petraeus and General Ray Odierno, before Congress who testified to the efficacy of the new Iraqi military. This testimony enabled President Obama to keep one of his major campaign promises: the withdrawal of all US combat forces from Iraq.

This wasn't the first time the US military had been called upon to deliberately mislead Congress about the capabilities of a foreign army that it had been responsible for training and equipping in order to provide political cover for a policy of military disengagement from an unpopular theater of operations. In 1949, the Truman administration was keen to remove US military forces from South Korea in order to help facilitate deep cuts in the defense budget. The training of an effective South Korean army was considered a precondition to this decision. The officers responsible for overseeing the training of the South Korean army wrote numerous reports and provided compelling testimony about the supposed strong capabilities of the South Korean forces. And yet, in June 1950, when the armed forces of North Korea invaded, the South Korean army melted away in the face of a better trained, equipped and motivated foe. It wasn't that the American military advisors believed their reports -- many knew the capabilities of the South Korean army were dubious at best, but feared the consequences to their careers if they told the truth. The end result of this deception was a rout of the South Korean armed forces and the engagement of US forces in a bloody war that lasted more than three years and left the Korean peninsula divided some sixty-plus years later.

The American military adventure in Vietnam produced an even more calamitous result. The decision by the Nixon administration in 1968 to withdraw US combat forces from South Vietnam led to a policy of "Vietnamization," where the US poured in billions of dollars to build and equip a robust South Vietnamese military capable of standing on its own against the combined forces of North Vietnam and the indigenous Viet Cong. A test of this policy came in the spring of 1972, when the South Vietnamese military, backed by US military advisors on the ground and massive US air power, beat back a concerted offensive by North Vietnam. This "success" led to Congressional action in the form of the Cooper-Church amendment in August 1973, facilitated by the testimony of US military officials as to the robust capabilities of the South Vietnamese armed forces, which effectively barred future US military operations in Vietnam. When North Vietnam resumed its offensive in March of 1975, the South Vietnamese military, operating on its own, collapsed, and Saigon fell to North Vietnamese on April 30.

The failure of the US military to adequately train and equip the armies of foreign allies does not rest on the issue of professional competence of those doing the training. Clearly, those called upon to conduct military training were qualified to do so, and the heroic performance of their trainees at the small-unit level underscored this fact. But it was the corrupting influence of politics that compels otherwise honorable men to put self-interest before the national interest. Men who would be willing to give their lives in combat wilt under the pressure of careerism for the simple fact that both intrepidness under fire and facilitating the whims of superiors, while seemingly contradictory behaviors, are traits that help one move up the steep pyramid of military command. Cowardice in the face of the enemy and speaking truth to power, likewise considered polar opposite behaviors, result in career termination.

The senior military officials who oversaw the training of South Korea's military in 1949-1950 knew that Syngman Rhee was a problematic leader of a problematic nation. The same can be said of South Vietnam's Nguyen Van Thieu, and Iraq's Nouri al-Maliki. If war is an extension of politics, so too are armies an appendage of the bodies they serve. There is an old proverb that states "a fish stinks from the head." This holds true of nations as well, and if a government fails to command the respect and loyalty of the people it governs, then an army drawn from the ranks of those very same people cannot be expected to fight and die in its name. This is the fundamental problem facing the US military as it prepares to train yet another fighting force in both Iraq and Syria. Nouri al-Maliki might be gone, but the government that replaced him continues to implement his policies. There is no political leadership of the "Free Syrian Army" worthy of the name.

Two new American generals have been summoned to oversee the training effort in Iraq. Lieutenant General James Terry will lead the effort, supported by Major General Paul Funk II. Each will, in due course, be called upon to testify before Congress as to the progress they are making in their mission. Neither will earn an additional star if they report back that their charges are militarily incapable of achieving the optimistic objectives set forth by the Obama administration. Congress can anticipate that each of these men, and any others they call upon to testify, will provide them with the sort of pat answers one has come to expect from such hearings. That is how the training game is played in Washington, DC. There is a tongue-in-cheek definition of insanity that attributes the affliction to anyone who does the same thing over and over again, yet expects a different result. The fact of the matter is, void of meaningful political change in both Iraq and within the political leadership of the "Free Syrian Army," there will be no cause in either of those countries worthy of the sacrifice of the men America plans to train to fight in the spring offensive of 2015. We've been down this path before, outside Seoul in June 1950, Xuan Loc in April 1975, and Mosul in June 2013. The outcome is tragically predictable, no matter how hard our politicians try to convince us otherwise.



Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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How Many Muslim Countries Has the US Bombed or Occupied Since 1980? Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=29455"><span class="small">Glenn Greenwald, The Intercept</span></a>   
Saturday, 08 November 2014 07:45

Greenwald writes: "When Obama began bombing targets inside Syria in September, I noted that it was the seventh predominantly Muslim country that had been bombed by the U.S. during his presidency (that did not count Obama's bombing of the Muslim minority in the Philippines)."

Intercept journalist and founding editor Glenn Greenwald. (photo: Salon)
Intercept journalist and founding editor Glenn Greenwald. (photo: Salon)


How Many Muslim Countries Has the US Bombed or Occupied Since 1980?

By Glenn Greenwald, The Intercept

08 November 14

 

arack Obama, in his post-election press conference yesterday, announced that he would seek an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) from the new Congress, one that would authorize Obama’s bombing campaign in Iraq and Syria—the one he began three months ago. If one were being generous, one could say that seeking congressional authorization for a war that commenced months ago is at least better than fighting a war even after Congress explicitly rejected its authorization, as Obama lawlessly did in the now-collapsed country of Libya.

When Obama began bombing targets inside Syria in September, I noted that it was the seventh predominantly Muslim country that had been bombed by the U.S. during his presidency (that did not count Obama’s bombing of the Muslim minority in the Philippines). I also previously noted that this new bombing campaign meant that Obama had become the fourth consecutive U.S. President to order bombs dropped on Iraq. Standing alone, those are both amazingly revealing facts. American violence is so ongoing and continuous that we barely notice it any more. Just this week, a U.S. drone launched a missile that killed 10 people in Yemen, and the dead were promptly labeled “suspected militants” (which actually just means they are “military-age males”); those killings received almost no discussion.

To get a full scope of American violence in the world, it is worth asking a broader question: how many countries in the Islamic world has the U.S. bombed or occupied since 1980? That answer was provided in a recent Washington Post op-ed by the military historian and former U.S. Army Col. Andrew Bacevich:

As America’s efforts to “degrade and ultimately destroy” Islamic State militants extent into Syria, Iraq War III has seamlessly morphed into Greater Middle East Battlefield XIV. That is, Syria has become at least the 14th country in the Islamic world that U.S. forces have invaded or occupied or bombed, and in which American soldiers have killed or been killed. And that’s just since 1980.

Let’s tick them off: Iran (1980, 1987-1988), Libya (1981, 1986, 1989, 2011), Lebanon (1983), Kuwait (1991), Iraq (1991-2011, 2014-), Somalia (1992-1993, 2007-), Bosnia (1995), Saudi Arabia (1991, 1996), Afghanistan (1998, 2001-), Sudan (1998), Kosovo (1999), Yemen (2000, 2002-), Pakistan (2004-) and now Syria. Whew.

Bacevich’s count excludes the bombing and occupation of still other predominantly Muslim countries by key U.S. allies such as Israel and Saudi Arabia, carried out with crucial American support. It excludes coups against democratically elected governments, torture, and imprisonment of people with no charges. It also, of course, excludes all the other bombing and invading and occupying that the U.S. has carried out during this time period in other parts of the world, including in Central America and the Caribbean, as well as various proxy wars in Africa.

There is an awful lot to be said about the factions in the west which devote huge amounts of their time and attention to preaching against the supreme primitiveness and violence of Muslims. There are no gay bars in Gaza, the obsessively anti-Islam polemicists proclaim—as though that (rather than levels of violence and aggression unleashed against the world) is the most important metric for judging a society. Reflecting their single-minded obsession with demonizing Muslims (at exactly the same time, coincidentally, their governments wage a never-ending war on Muslim countries and their societies marginalize Muslims), they notably neglect to note thriving gay communities in places like Beirut and Istanbul, or the lack of them in Christian Uganda. Employing the defining tactic of bigotry, they love to highlight the worst behavior of individual Muslims as a means of attributing it to the group as a whole, while ignoring (often expressly) the worst behavior of individual Jews and/or their own groups (they similarly cite the most extreme precepts of Islam while ignoring similarly extreme ones from Judaism). That’s because, as Rula Jebreal told Bill Maher last week, if these oh-so-brave rationality warriors said about Jews what they say about Muslims, they’d be fired.

But of all the various points to make about this group, this is always the most astounding: those same people, who love to denounce the violence of Islam as some sort of ultimate threat, live in countries whose governments unleash far more violence, bombing, invasions, and occupations than anyone else by far. That is just a fact.

Those who sit around in the U.S. or the U.K. endlessly inveighing against the evil of Islam, depicting it as the root of violence and evil (the “mother lode of bad ideas“), while spending very little time on their own societies’ addictions to violence and aggression, or their own religious and nationalistic drives, have reached the peak of self-blinding tribalism. They really are akin to having a neighbor down the street who constantly murders, steals and pillages, and then spends his spare time flamboyantly denouncing people who live thousands of miles away for their bad acts. Such a person would be regarded as pathologically self-deluded, a term that also describes those political and intellectual factions which replicate that behavior.

The sheer casualness with which Obama yesterday called for a new AUMF is reflective of how central, how commonplace, violence and militarism are in the U.S.’s imperial management of the world. That some citizens of that same country devote themselves primarily if not exclusively to denouncing the violence and savagery of others is a testament to how powerful and self-blinding tribalism is as a human drive.

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Democratic Strategies Lost Big. Here's an Alternative. Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=8706"><span class="small">George Lakoff, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Friday, 07 November 2014 13:28

Lakoff writes: "It is time to shine a light on the strategies used by Democrats, and on the Democratic infrastructure that uses those strategies."

George Lakoff. (photo: unknown)
George Lakoff. (photo: unknown)


Democratic Strategies Lost Big. Here's an Alternative.

By George Lakoff, Reader Supported News

07 November 14

 

t is time to shine a light on the strategies used by Democrats, and on the Democratic infrastructure that uses those strategies.

Democratic strategists have been segmenting the electorate and seeking individual self-interest-based issues in each electoral block. The strategists also keep suggesting a move to the right. This has left no room for the Democrats to have an overriding authentic moral identity that Americans can recognize.

Those strategists form an infrastructure that all Democrats have come to depend on; not just the candidates, but also the elected officials, Democrats in government, and citizens who either do, or might, find progressive policies morally and practically right. The strategic infrastructure includes PR firms, pollsters, consultants, researchers, trainers, communication specialists, speechwriters, and their funders.

It is an important and powerful infrastructure and we all depend on it. I believe it is vital to separate this infrastructure from the strategies it has been using. I believe the strategies can be greatly improved so as to give a true, deep, and moral picture of what progressive politics is about -- one whose content and authenticity will resonate with, and inspire, a majority of Americans.

I have just published a book about how to do this: The All New Don't Think of an Elephant! It is an updated and much expanded version of the original, which introduced the concept of conceptual framing, which is about ideas, not just about slogans. The present book includes what I have learned over the past decade by bringing to bear results in my academic discipline, the Brain and Cognitive Sciences. The book is short, easy-to-read, and inexpensive.

At this point, some details are in order. Here is what is widely done according to present strategies. Not everyone uses all of these, but most are common.

  • Use demographic categories to segment the electorate, categories from the census (race, gender, ethnicity, age, marital status, income, zip code), as well as publicly available party registration.

  • Assume uniformity across the demographic categories. Poll on which issues are "most important," e.g., for women (or single women), for each minority group, for young people, and so on. This separates the issues from one another and creates "issue silos." It does not include segmentation for moral worldviews that differ between conservatives and progressives.

  • Assume language is neutral and that the same poll questions will have the same meaning for everyone polled. In reality, language is defined relative to conceptual frames. And the same words can be "contested," that is, they can have opposite meanings depending on one's moral values.

  • Assume that people vote on the basis of material self-interest and design different message to appeal to different demographic groups. In reality, poor conservatives will vote against their material interests when they identify with a candidate and his or her values.

  • In polling, apply statistical methods to the answers given in each demographic group. This will impose a "bell curve" in the results. The bell curve will impose a "middle" in each case.

  • Assume that most voters are in the middle imposed by the bell curve. Move to the middle. If your beliefs are on the left of the "middle," move to the right to be where most voters are. You will be helping conservatives, by supporting their beliefs. And you may ne saying things you don;tje

  • Check the polls to see how popular the present Democratic president is; if he is not popular, design you message to dissociate yourself from the president. It will reinforce the unpopularity of the president when members of his own party, as well as the opposition, disown him.

  • Attack your opponents as being "extremists" when they hold views typical of the far right. This will help your opponents, as they will appear standing up for what they believe in among those of their constituents that share any of those views.

  • Attack your opponents for getting money from rich corporations or individuals. This will help your opponent among Republicans (and some Democrats) who respect the values of the wealthy and successful.

  • Argue against your opponents by quoting them, using their language and negating that language. Negating a frame reinforces the frame, as in the sentence "Don't think of an elephant!" This practice will mostly reinforce the views of your opponent.

Such strategies miss the opportunity to present an overriding moral stand that fits the individual issues, while saying clearly what ideals Democrats stand for as Democrats. There happens to be such an overriding ideal that most Democrats authentically believe in.

I work in the brain and cognitive sciences. I study how people think and how language works. The most basic result is that most thought is unconscious -- about 98 percent (a reasonable ballpark figure). My job here is to do my best to make the unconscious conscious. Here goes!

All politics is moral. When a politician says to do something, he is implicitly claiming that it is the right thing to do. No politician will over say, do what I say because it's wrong -- pure evil! None will ever say, "Do what I say, though it doesn't matter." When politicians' policy prescriptions differ widely, it is because their sense of what is right is very different. In short, they have different moral systems. That is true of progressives and conservatives alike. The political proposals conservatives and progressives make are based on different moral systems.

Progressive and conservatives have very different understandings of democracy. For progressives, empathy is at the center of the very idea of democracy. Democracy is a governing system in which citizens care about their fellow citizens and work through their government to provide public resources for all. In short, in a democracy, the private depends on the public.

Elizabeth Warren says it out loud. If you have a business it depends on public resources: roads, bridges, the Interstate highway system, sewers, a water supply, airports and air traffic control, the Federal Reserve, a patent office, public education for your employees, public health, the electric grid, the satellite communication system, the Internet, and all the government research behind computer science. You can't run a business without these. Private enterprise depends on the public.

The same is true of individuals, who depend on public resources like clean air, clean water, enough food, safe food and products, public safety, access to education and health care, housing, employment -- as well as those roads, bridges, sewers, satellite communication, electric grid, and so on. And most important -- voting in free elections, choosing the government to provide those resources. Private life depends on the public.

What public resources provide is freedom. Most progressive issues are freedom issues.

    Voting: Without the ability to vote in free elections you are not free.
  • Health: If you get cancer or even break a leg and don't have health care, you are not free.

  • Education: Without education, you lack the knowledge and skills not just to earn a decent living, but also to even be aware of the possibilities of life. Without education, you are therefore not free.

  • Women: If you are denied control over your body, you are not free.

  • Marriage: If you are in love and are denied the ability to marry with a publicly declared lifetime commitment, you are not free.

  • Vast income inequality: When the economic gains that most people have worked for go not to those who worked for them, but only to the wealthiest of the wealthy, those who did the work -- most people -- are not free.

  • Race: When you are treated with suspicion and disdain, you are not free.

  • Corporate Control: When corporations control your life for their benefit and not yours, you are not free.

  • Privatization: When significant public resources become owned or controlled by private corporations, the public has lost an essential element of freedom.

And one more, which had a major effect in the 2014 election:

  • Fear: When you are emotionally gripped by fear, you are not free.

As FDR pointed out, Freedom From Fear is a vital freedom. In the 2014 election, conservatives played on fear -- of Isis and Ebola.

Every progressive instinctively knows all this, but very few say it. Instead, progressives tend to talk not about such values, but instead about facts, policies, and programs.

Conservatives, on the other hand, have a very different view of democracy. For them democracy is supposed to provide them with the liberty to do what they want, without being responsible for others and without others being responsible for them. For them, there is only personal responsibility, not social responsibility. Indeed, providing public resources is, to a conservative, immoral, taking away personal responsibility, making people dependent, lazy, unable to take care of themselves. Removing public resources is seen as providing incentives, and individual liberty is seen as the condition in which you can carry out your incentives.

This is very much what conservative morality is about. If you cannot succeed through personal responsibility, you deserve what you get.

But these are not just two equally valid, though opposite, moral systems. Because the private really does depend on the public, because personal responsibility without public resources gets you nowhere, the conservative view of democracy has radically false consequences. It is immoral because it lacks empathy, but it also just plain false.

If Cartesian rationalism were true, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in. If all reason were conscious, and if being human were, by definition, being a rational animal, and if rationality were logic, then the facts would set us all free. But human reason doesn't work that way. We use embodied brains, whose neural structures constitute frames and conceptual metaphors.

All thought is physical. We think using the neural systems in our brains. Thought works by frames -- neural circuitry that we use to comprehend the world. The sad fact is that we can only understand what our brains allow us to understand. As a result, just pointing out the facts to conservatives cannot work. Facts are crucial, but they make sense primarily relative to their moral importance.

Our hope lies in biconceptualism. Most of us are partly conservative and partly progressive -- mostly one but partly the other, so far as issues are concerned. There is no ideology of the moderate. Moderate conservatives have some progressive views, and conversely. Circuitry for both moral systems are present in the biconceptual brain, applying to different issues.

All words are defined with respect to frame-circuits. The more one hears conservative language, the stronger the conservative moral system gets in your brain. The same for progressive language. The more progressives speak in their own language, the stronger their frame circuitry gets in the brains of bi-conceptuals who hear them, who already have a version of that system.

The moral: Progressivism supports freedom. The private depends on the public. If you believe it, say it. Moral ideals matter. Authenticity matters.

A Note on Organization

It takes some training to avoid the common strategy problems, to get insight into what your unconscious beliefs really are, and to learn how to express those beliefs effectively. Democratic strategists, like Republicans, offer trainings. The training should focus on the new, not the old, strategies, and should be more widely offered to citizens who want to speak publicly in their communities.

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Get Over the Midterms, Now the Fun Begins Print
Friday, 07 November 2014 13:24

Cherlin writes: "The GOP is deeply divided - perhaps fatally divided - and has made big, contradictory declarations about what it would do when it finally got Harry Reid out of the way."

Members of Congress climb the steps of the House of Representatives on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 31, 2014. (photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
Members of Congress climb the steps of the House of Representatives on Capitol Hill in Washington on July 31, 2014. (photo: J. Scott Applewhite/AP)


ALSO SEE: Here Is What the GOP Promises to Do With Its New Senate Majority

Get Over the Midterms, Now the Fun Begins

By Reid Cherlin, Rolling Stone

07 November 14

 

With the seemingly inevitable drubbing out of the way, the main event gets underway and for political junkies the real fun begins

uesday night's Republican landslide — or drubbing, or shellacking or whatever we are calling it — was broad, and deep, and for MSNBC viewers, depressing and perhaps a little terrifying. What it wasn't was surprising. Since the inauguration of Franklin Roosevelt in 1934, multi-term presidents have gained Senate seats in their final term exactly zero times; in every other incidence save one (the 1998 midterms under Clinton, when there was no change) the president's party has lost anywhere from six to 13 Senate seats. The drama this cycle, if there was any, was mostly to be found in whether various individual officeholders — several of them Democrats in states that Mitt Romney won by huge margins — would manage to hang on (Answer: no). We waited for the Democrats to lose big, and then they did. So much demagoguery, and so much preening, and so little to look forward to.

Maybe, or maybe not. I'm not going to argue that the last several years haven't been sour and deeply lame — but they also haven't been particularly meaningful. Lots of people are tired of Obama? They've been tired of Obama since the first midterm wipeout, in 2010. I understand that many out there feel personally wrapped up in election the results, either despondent or exultant, and that's allowed. But believe me, the feeling will pass, and it should. What's behind us is nothing more than a long and boring formality. What's ahead of us — for political junkies at least — is the good part.

The battle lines in D.C. have been pretty firmly drawn for years now: Democrats have been crying intransigence, and Republicans have been crying overreach. But because we've been stuck in this holding pattern, all of us waiting for the Democratic Senate majority to drain away, everyone has been, in a sense, stalling. Republicans want you to believe not just that Barack Obama is a fraud but that the idea of Obama — what Sarah Palin so nicely called "that hopey changey stuff" — is a fraud, a pernicious sawing away at the fiber of American greatness. For the past two years, though, Republican legislators haven't been able to do anything about it, because they didn't have the Senate. That changes today. They may not be able to get anything passed into law so long as Obama remains in the Oval Office, but they are going to get the chance, at least, to articulate what they stand for in terms of a legislative program.

This is where the fun begins. (OK, I know it's a weird definition of the word, but bear with me.) The GOP is deeply divided — perhaps fatally divided — and has made big, contradictory declarations about what it would do when it finally got Harry Reid out of the way. Bloomberg's Dave Weigel wrote the other day that Republicans have simultaneously promised to pass their own version of immigration reform and to scuttle immigration reform for good. They have promised to repeal Obamacare and promised to move on from repealing Obamacare. They have wailed about Obama's handling of Ebola, and ISIS, and Syria, and Benghazi, and entitlements, and Bowe Bergdhal, and executive orders, and Fast and Furious, and engaging with Iran. All they have done about any of this, really, is blame Obama, block whatever he tried to do, and sharpen their knives for the elections that just ended. Now that Congress is theirs, they don't have the option to be obstructionist anymore: the forces within the party are going to have to come to some sort of reckoning and figure out if they can agree to stand for something. You may not like the results of that process (or you may) but the burden of proving one's concept, not attack ads or clever tweets, is what Democracy is supposed to be about, right?

Now, whether Republicans manage to accomplish anything depends on a bunch of factors, mainly whether the Tea Partiers and the Boehner-types will be able to find policies to agree on, and then, in turn, on whether those policies can survive Democratic filibustering and Obama's veto pen. But that's not really my point here. The point is that we are poised to find out, finally, whether a viable alternative to the Obama Way — shoot, let's just go ahead and call it Big Government — actually exists in practice, and whether real Americans will want it when they see it. (They might!)

That brings us to the presidential election, which in effect, terribly yet also awesomely, begins today. In recent years there has been lot of considered criticism that these races start too soon, go on too long, involve too many debates and entirely too much money. And yet I find myself impatient for this one to get started, for the simple reason that I think it is going to rule. Just look at the possible candidates. We could, in theory, have a Republican primary including all of the following individuals: Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie. Sprinkle in, if you like, Dr. Ben Carson, Rick Santorum, John Bolton, even Lindsey Graham. You hear it said — and if you haven't heard it, then I'll say it — that when you listen to Rand Paul, you're almost sure he's crazy, but every third thing he says actually makes deep sense. His smash-hit "Stand with Rand" filibuster against our drone policy was actually a pretty liberal move, and personally I think it's great that the debate over the rule of law and America's ability to heal the ills in other countries has moved into the interior of the Republican establishment. As for Jeb (who like everyone else, has not said whether he's running), the conventional wisdom is that America would never vote for another Bush. Really? Why? Seems to me like Jeb is a lot of things that no one else in the field is: open to education reform, for one, pro-immigrant, for two (he's also fluent in Spanish and his wife is originally from Mexico) and just generally reasonable, for three. Would he have to tack drastically to the right to survive the Republican primary? Of course. But he should run anyway.

Meanwhile, the formidable, inspiring, loathed, loved Hillary Clinton will be running for president, too. Clinton has such a galvanizing effect on her supporters — they've already begun plastering the country with "Ready for Hillary" billboards and bumper stickers, just to let her know — that we often forget that she has a less-than-sterling track record as campaigner. She often speaks woodenly, can be destructively overreactive, and has a habit of surrounding herself with staff who spend more time fighting each other than fighting for their boss. She may get a challenger herself — possibly Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, or Joe Biden, or Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, or, delight of delights, progressive hero Elizabeth Warren. Latino voters, who made up such a critical voting bloc in the past two presidential cycles, may be feeling, rightly, that Democrats failed them on immigration reform: already, pro-immigration activists have made a habit of heckling Clinton (and her potential Republican opponents) during campaign speeches.

No matter what else happens, it is going to fascinating to watch her try to figure out how to talk about the Obama presidency, and her own huge role in it. Were we right or wrong not to help in Syria? Why does American persuasiveness seem so weak and ineffectual? Was Clintonianism better? Different? Should we return to it? In being forced to articulate this stuff, she may do more than anyone else to help figure out the as-yet unsettled question of what the Obama Era has meant. And then, if all goes according to plan, she'll get the privilege of going head-to-head with the Republican nominee, in probably the nastiest and most expensive election in human history, live on television.

When the results came in Tuesday night, the Times put up an analysis piece called "President Obama Left Fighting for His Own Relevance." I think that suggests a false tension. Whether Obama fades into the background or whether he emerges as a newly unfettered pugilist, he won't really be the story anymore. Republicans have been clamoring for the spotlight, and all the responsibilities and expectations that go with it; you have to think that the president will be glad to cede it to them. No one has any idea what will happen over these crucial next two years. Republicans are going to have to govern, and Democrats are going to have to regroup. Both will have to prepare for the real death match, a year and a half from now. What's left for the rest of us is the easy part: to watch, and just as important, to enjoy the show.

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FOCUS | Triumph of the Wrong Print
Friday, 07 November 2014 11:11

Krugman writes: "So now is a good time to remember just how wrong the new rulers of Congress have been about, well, everything."

Paul Krugman. (photo: NYT)
Paul Krugman. (photo: NYT)


Triumph of the Wrong

By Paul Krugman, The New York Times

07 November 14

 

he race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet midterms to men of understanding. Or as I put it on the eve of another Republican Party sweep, politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth. Still, it’s not often that a party that is so wrong about so much does as well as Republicans did on Tuesday.

I’ll talk in a bit about some of the reasons that may have happened. But it’s important, first, to point out that the midterm results are no reason to think better of the Republican position on major issues. I suspect that some pundits will shade their analysis to reflect the new balance of power — for example, by once again pretending that Representative Paul Ryan’s budget proposals are good-faith attempts to put America’s fiscal house in order, rather than exercises in deception and double-talk. But Republican policy proposals deserve more critical scrutiny, not less, now that the party has more ability to impose its agenda.

So now is a good time to remember just how wrong the new rulers of Congress have been about, well, everything.

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