Written by Richard Kane   

Imagine back when Obama was running for President, when most Iraqis were mad at the US, that there would be a future Iraq where all sides vigorously participated in an election, despite the very determined effort of a few terrorists to get in the way, but who actually created, before the polls closed, a voting surge since the attacks seemed to be only early on, where the Iraqis vowed not to let terrorists tell them what to do, instead of demanding that the Americans not tell them what to do. Then try to imagine two years back that only a few Americans would, in that future, cheer this event.

Imagine before Obama was sworn in as President, when President Bush and many others expressed fear of an imminent worldwide banking collapse that two years later, very few Americans would be cheering that we stepped back from the abyss and seems unlikely as long as Obama is President. Try to imagine Americans wouldn’t to thankful that we aren’t suffering from the severe repression that Africa, Eastern Europe, Greece and somewhat Europe as a whole is going through.

In Iraq the al Qaeda suicide-bombing bloodbath against open markets, religious processions and funerals and against politicians and tit-for-tat ethnic reprisal attacks became so extensive that many Sunni fighters had enough and when they were attacked for trying to stop fighting, joined the Americans.

In Afghanistan several mosques were attacked when local clerics tried to have a local cease-fire with the Americans. One group of otherwise Taliban supporting poppy growers ended up fighting with the Taliban over who owned the drug trade routes, with the US coming to the defense of these Afghan farmers. Now the US has seized the most productive poppy growing area near Pakistan carefully avoiding most civilian casualties and promising to buy the next poppy crop, and having a very expensive hands-on approach to have one to one contacts and conversations with the local farmers to go along with the vast expenses in extensive armor the latest expensive drone war technology, and Obama being good to wounded veterans with such things as expensive new technological breakthroughs on artificial limbs. Many more such expensive victories will mean that bin Laden’s vow to push us toward bankruptcy will become ever more likely to happen.

In the meantime, Mullah Omar the least violent of the Taliban leaders won Pakistan’s approval by urging that Pakistan not be attacked, and many in Kabul with his strict code of ethics. When the attempt to blow up the Central Bank failed, the suicide-vested fighters didn’t blow themselves up on the crowed street but retreated to the market complex next door and ordered everyone out, never blowing themselves and the complex up. The two who weren’t shot committed suicide rather than be captured. All this means that the local enemy is learning to be less violent as well instead of some kind of quick US breakthroughs like in Iraq. (If one Googles “Taliban code of ethics” include the “NY Times”, or another major paper, or one will be flooded with sites ridiculing it instead of explaining it).

Bush managed to get much of the Muslim world mad, though not nearly as much as the Soviet Union when it was fighting in Afghanistan. Obama doesn’t want Hezbollah or Hamas mad at the US and only wants to stop al Qaeda.

Obama allows Pakistan President Karzai to constantly call for negotiations with all of the Taliban, which after the UN asked that the Taliban be taken off the terror list to facilitate negotiations, the US took four retired leaders off the list who were involved in negotiations until Pakistan arrested one than another Taliban leader in Pakistan who had been close to Mullah Omar. Karzai had asked Saudi Arabia to be in charge of mediating peace between him and Omar but the Saudis refused unless Omar denounced al Qaeda which Omar is not willing do, since it could mean al Al Qaeda attacking him an/or again attacking markets and funerals in Afghanistan, like they used to do, and are still doing in Southern Pakistan.

Unfortunately Obama is succeeding to make al Qaeda much more exclusively mad at the US instead of being mad at the world. Bush removed US troops from sacred Saudi Arabia, a major sore point, and did other things that made US targets less tempting than local and European targets. Now we have more to fear of a domestic attack again. If al Qaeda ever gets close to imminent permanent defeat rather than fall on their swords, so to speak, they can attack all the unarmed cruise ships filled with Americans especially in the Caribbean. So ironically the closer imminent defeat of al Qaeda gets the more the US is in danger of very bloody last minute incidents. So sadly what looked like a policy in al Qaeda’s eyes of certain victory though US eventual bankruptcy as long they didn’t change course, when it changes, looks from here that we did something wrong.

One question people don’t ask is why are US funerals, shopping centers, religious sites and gatherings, not targets and mass transportation like in India, England and Spain. First of all, al Qaeda has asked that ordinary soldiers be attacked since lack of fresh recruits is the US’s weakest point, but US anti-Imperialist protesters don’t want to blame the ordinary GI. One thing that slows down al Qaeda planning extensive attacks on the US is that it would lead to a draft or at least with US tanks and GI’s not covered with as much expensive armor and medical backup. If the US fought more cheaply, al Qaeda would not be as confident that in the end the US would go bankrupt. Most al Qaeda attacks have backup plans in case anything fails. The shoe and underwear bomber being an exception, making me wonder if the bombs were meant to scare us not go off, and thus not risk a draft or the US fighting more cheaply. It is also possible that al Qaeda has sleeper cells ready to go off if there is a massive invasion of Pakistan. Attacks before then would lessen their impact. They would have no contact with al Qaeda and with drone warfare, have no way to know the threshold event that was supposed to signal the coordinated attack schedule.

I wish I could conclude that Obama is the good guy to solve everything after all if only we would again start supporting him. However, the UN Brazilian peace keeping troops performed admirably in Haiti. And the world didn’t honor them when they were devastated by the Haitian earthquake. Obama seems to be heading for a world where the US is the official policeman behaving honorably without abusing the population and without corruption and thus the only pay coming from the ever more strapped US population. The US had a chance to get out of Iraq
without the bloodbath returning but it almost ended when a massive number of Sunni politicians were at first kicked off the ballot. We can leave with flare right now in the aftermath of the
amazingly successful Iraqi election, but the window for a mostly peaceful exit may soon again close for a while.

There also might be a possible quick exit from Afghanistan, but also of al Qaeda last minute desperation. After Saudi Arabia said, “no!”, to Karzai, to be the mediator between him and Mullah Omar since despite Omar’s reforms he didn’t renounce al Qaeda, a little later Mullah Baradar was arrested by Pakistan despite Pakistan refusing to arrest his boss Mullah Omar. Pakistan is letting Americans question Baradar only in their presence. Al Jazeera News thinks Baradar was trying to negotiate with Saudi Arabia, how many Taliban underlings had to renounce al Qaeda instead of Mullah Omar, for Saudi Arabia to get involved. Pakistan which doesn’t trust the Saudis, according to Al Jazeera, didn’t want to be left out of controlling or greatly influencing Afghanistan in the future. We may be at the verge of peace if the US seizes Mullah Baradar or of war with Pakistan and US sleeper cells coming out of the woodwork.

Let’s all of us Americans stop being hawks and doves and start supporting Obama only after he sets clear limits to what he is trying to accomplish.

Richard Kane is retired in Philadelphia, from a family of historic peace activists. Didn’t oppose drone warfare, but if drones can blow up anyone digging on the side of a road who didn’t have to be planting bombs, they could be taking pictures instead, and after enough pictures a few brave heroes capturing suspects rather than blow them up.

RichardKanePA.blogspot.com