Written by Richard Kane   

The USSR came to a tragic end. When bin Laden saw the second biggest empire collapse, he felt tremendously empowered. Long after the USSR no longer existed, copycats attacked the Moscow subway, an elementary school, and soon after the collapse, a crowded movie theater.

Like the star of a Greek Tragedy, the US feared looking weak. It is true weak responding nations have problems, al Qaeda chooses South Korean and Chinese businessmen, not Americans to kidnap for ransom. Some fear an auto accident so much that they get rear-ended on the expressway for driving too slow, or fear germs so much that they cause an infection by using too much disinfectant.

If the dollar is in steep decline before the US starts to quickly leave Afghanistan, a ransom demand, no matter how it is handled, would erode confidence in the dollar still further. We might have to hurry to leave Afghanistan to discourage al Qaeda or even others tempted to prove we are weak.

Like the star in a Greek Tragedy the US spent the last half a century trying to be and look tough, in the end weakening our economy by doing so.

Even if setting a future cease-fire or withdrawal date did work wars tend to get worse as belligerents juggles for position as a cease-fire approaches. When the US announces a date to turn over the war to the Karzai government it makes the Taliban dwell on killing government troops. It is fortunate in Iraq that Obama managed to be out of Iraq weeks before he announced the US would, which I think got in the way of last minute al Qaeda activity. A great accomplishment that was unfortunately more than offset by not using bin Laden's death as a reason to leave the Afghan War without looking like having been kicked out. By the way, hawks were furious with the US peace movement for making the US leave Vietnam. Getting out of Afghanistan the wrong way will reinforce the new concept that Vietnam kicked the US's butt, rather than due to the peace movement.


Was there anything the hero of an ancient Greek tragedy could have done after being warned? What can we do now?

The first thing to do is to pay attention. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is considered the right-wing edge of the peace movement, wanting US troops to leave Afghanistan post haste. For him its the wrong war. Instead he wants the US to rapidly increase aid and support to India, and groups in Pakistan seeking local independence. Believing Pakistan, China and Iran are the enemy, and India and Russia are our friends. He wants to encourage Russia and China to fight each other (not likely). Unfortunately his trying to get India and Pakistan to hate each other even more is very doable. He loves to insult Pakistan and Afghan President Karzai, he praises and is even upset that independence rebels from the Pakistan province of Balochistan aren’t allowing into this country to meet with him.

I would like to turn Dana Rohrabacher's suggestions on their head. I wish people who look for peace would love alliances and scenario attempts the way trouble-seekers do. Those trying to accomplish by causing trouble goes all the way back to theTruman years before he was President saying, “If Stalin is winning support Hitler and if Hitler is winning support Stalin”.

Instead of Rohrabacher's idea of arming India in a US attempt to leave Afghanistan, why not peace engineering” such as asking India to mediate between the US and the Taliban? Urbanized Afghans don't like rural Taliban values, (like the burka) and there will be an attempted mass exit out of Kabul if the US suddenly leaves, maybe there might be Indian peace-keepers as part of a peace agreement with the Taliban, or maybe Turkish peacekeepers or troops. The Taliban as part of a agreement for quick US withdrawal might agree to a year of autonomy for Kabul. Peacekeepers guarding Kabul's city's border for a year. Perhaps giving the Taliban time for tempers to cool like in Libya where the victorious warlords are furious with each other, so much so that Gadaffi's homeland recently declaring itself a semi-antonymous unit without their intervention.

The city of Kabul continuing urban values might last longer if Kabul became a “Hong Kong” of Afghanistan. Hong Kong has maintained its semi-independence since the British returned it. Hong Kong being a little different helps the entire Chinese mainland function better economically. The US has a US airbase in Kyrgyzstan to supply the Americans in Afghanistan, when the government said “they would not renew the lease” the US upped the rent $200 million for the government to agree longer, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transit_Center_at_Manas to supply the Afghan War

Instead the US could pay the rent for Kabul's autonomy for a little while and human right groups around the world continue to pay Kabul's rent until Afghanistan finally might appreciate the economic benefit. (Beyond the perimeters of this article there are reasons for the cities and countryside to have somewhat different values)

Once upon a time there was an International League for Peace & Freedom instead of only local peace groups, and more than only occasional international conferences with vague resolutions. I wish those who want peace would learn how to get others involved the way those who want trouble do. Aid to the Sunni rebels in Syria particularly humanitarian aid might be required by the UN to equal aid to the Shiite rebels and democracy seekers in Bahrain and efforts to establish a Shiite sub-court in non-Sunni Bahrain, and a Sunni sub-court in Syria. A loose Muslim federation covering Muslim countries where each others minorities are protected equally. Since everyone wants to help those Muslims that agree with them linkage is something both sides might agree to. The above might be considered ridiculous dreaming, but no one announces to Rep. Dana Rohrabacher that his getting Russia and China in a fighting mood with each other isn't possible. Let's join Rohrabacher in trying to create the dream scenarios we find appealing to us. Why should those who want trouble do all the scenario suggesting?

By Richard Kane