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The Republicans Aren't Even Pretending This Is About Healthcare Anymore Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=11104"><span class="small">Charles Pierce, Esquire</span></a>   
Thursday, 21 September 2017 14:06

Pierce writes: "Over the past few days, as all hands attempted to sell to the country and to their colleagues the planet-sized lemon that is the so-called Cassidy-Graham healthcare plan, I noticed that these folks had become so exhausted by the effort that they simply don't have the energy even to lie well about it any more. The mask has dropped."

Senate Republicans. (photo: Getty)
Senate Republicans. (photo: Getty)


The Republicans Aren't Even Pretending This Is About Healthcare Anymore

By Charles Pierce, Esquire

21 September 17


They're too tired to lie.

ver the past few days, I have had to abandon one of my most deeply held political beliefs: that the reservoir of deceit, mutilated history, mutant arguments, threadbare metaphors, and pure unadulterated Grade-A American bullshit that conservatives can call upon in pursuit of their political goals is fathomless. Over the past few days, as all hands attempted to sell to the country and to their colleagues the planet-sized lemon that is the so-called Cassidy-Graham healthcare plan, I noticed that these folks had become so exhausted by the effort that they simply don’t have the energy even to lie well about it any more. The mask has dropped.

What we are hearing now from a number of people is the open admission that the goal of the Republican Party, a death-cult based on human suffering, is to strip healthcare from those people who do not vote for them, and from people the conservative mind has adjudged are unworthy of its benefits. Many of these arguments are toweringly stupid, as we shall see. But at least it’s out in the open now.

Take, for example, Senator John Barrasso of Wyoming. He went on TV with Katy Tur on Tuesday and let his personal kitty go screeching out of the burlap.

TUR: There are not essential health care benefits in this bill.

BARRASSO: And there shouldn’t be.

Or take, for example, Stephen Moore, one of the true nuisances in our political life, and a guy so dedicated to demonstrably bad economic theory that he one day likely will be buried in Arthur Laffer’s backyard, who is determined not to understand the simple facts of how any kind of insurance works. From CNN:

MOORE: Well, what you are going to have to do is have some kind of special fund so that people with pre-existing conditions are protected against price increases. But on the other hand, you don't want -- what happened in Obamacare, the disaster of Obamacare, is they put people with pre-existing conditions in the insurance pool with everyone else and that's what led to the big increases in costs. And that's why so many people who are healthy are basically saying, "Look, I don't want Obamacare. I'll pay the penalty. I can't afford the high costs of Obamacare because I'm relatively healthy and I don't want to pay for somebody who has got high health care costs." People want insurance for their own families, not for other people's families.

Or take, for example, the sudden enthusiasm of conservative Republicans for a kind of redistribution of health, as well as wealth. This comes from our old pal, Lindsey Graham, who is suddenly a healthcare savant because Bernie Sanders scared Graham’s contributors half to death. From HuffPost:

Graham’s claim is that almost every state, including Alaska, would make out under his bill. He acknowledges that some “big blue states,” like California and New York, would be hit with huge cuts. “I’m not out to hurt them,” Graham said Tuesday. “But I’m trying to make—you know, create parity here.”

Even if what Graham is saying were entirely true, which it is not, we would be edging very close to the law-school definition of “chutzpah” here. When the Affordable Care Act passed, it became a point of pride for various Republican governors to refuse to accept FREE MONEY! from Medicaid. That is why there wasn’t “parity.” Now, Graham is arguing with a straight face that he considers this refusal by those Republican governors as unfair to the states over which those governors presided. This is a theory of healthcare that only Doc Daneeka could love.

Or take, for example, Senator Ron (Shreds of Freedom) Johnson of Wisconsin, a big bag of hammers on his brightest day, who’s been out there pitching this thing in his own unique style. (Johnson is going to chair the very brief Kabuki hearing on the block-grant portion of this dog’s breakfast next week.) Johnson also waved off the importance of having the Congressional Budget Office score this latest dead fish. From Josh’s joint:

“The CBO scoring is just a detail,” bill co-sponsor Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) argued Tuesday, reviving the popular but inaccurate Republican talking point that the agency’s data cannot be trusted. “We’ve been highly disappointed in how CBO has conducted itself throughout this health care process. I have some real questions about CBO.”

Or take, for example, Johnson’s fellow cheesehead, Speaker Paul Ryan, the zombie-eyed granny starver from the state of Wisconsin, who took to the electric Twitter machine to say something so stupid that it’s amazing Ron Johnson didn’t get to it first.

First of all, you won’t ever have to make that choice since you’ve had government healthcare almost your entire life, especially when you were going to college with help from the money the rest of us put into the Social Security system. (You’re welcome.) Second, nothing in that tweet makes any sense in the context of the healthcare debate. And, third, that’s not “federalism,” at least not as any real Federalist would recognize it. That’s pure states rights—pure anti-Federalist.

And finally, and worst of all, the people at Vox did a little survey of Republican senators on this topic and revealed that you likely wouldn’t buy an apple from any of them. The results begin grim and stupid and get worse from there, and they will make you despair of the human intellect. To wit:

“They can do it with less money,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK), who was unable to explain how or why.

Or:

…some members of the upper chamber acknowledged that the spending changes might have a big impact, but argued their home states would not be negatively impacted. “Four of our states are getting a disproportionate amount of money from health care now,” Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) said. The bill, he added, “wouldn’t cut Alabama.” (Numbers from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities suggest Alabama would receive more than $1 billion in additional funding under the bill, but most states would see big cuts.)

Or, Part Deux:

Kennedy: I think it’s an improvement over Obamacare.

Jeff Stein: Why?

John Kennedy: My position has always been that, number one, I think Obamacare has been a failure. Number two: First chance I get to vote for repeal it, I’ll do it. And number three: If it’s replacement, if replacement is better than Obamacare, I will vote for it.

Or, Part Trois:

Stein: So just a follow-up on that. It's one thing to say the bill gives the states power — that’s one thing. But it doesn't just do that. It also cuts the money they have — some estimates say around 16 percent of federal funding.

Johnny Isakson: I'm not going to confirm that statement one way or another. I don't know what the numbers are going to end up looking like.

Stein: Right, but if it does cut federal spending overall, would you support it?

Isakson: You know, those are dangerous questions.

Or, Part The Last, and how could this not be my favorite?

Stein: But why does this bill make things better for Americans? How does it help?

Pat Roberts: Pardon me?

Jeff Stein: Why does this make things better? What is this doing?

Pat Roberts: Look, we’re in the back seat of a convertible being driven by Thelma and Louise, and we’re headed toward the canyon. That’s a movie that you’ve probably never seen —

Stein: I do know Thelma & Louise, sir.

Or take, for example, this sadly inevitable announcement via The Hill:

McCain was one of three crucial Republican votes that killed the GOP repeal effort in July. He at the time called repeatedly for the Senate to return to "regular order," meaning a bill would go through a committee first. "If it's not through regular order then it's a mistake, but it doesn't mean I wouldn't vote for it," McCain said when asked about his previous statements. In a statement later in the day on Wednesday, McCain took a step back from his earlier comments, saying he still needed to see the final bill and that committee hearings are in fact necessary.

Such a well-disciplined process.

These idiots are very close to having the votes.


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Trump Is Lying About the Republican Healthcare Bill Covering People With Pre-Existing Conditions Print
Thursday, 21 September 2017 14:02

Riotta writes: "Unlike former President Barack Obama's landmark health care law, however, the new Republican bill would not guarantee coverage for people living with pre-existing conditions."

Sen. Bill Cassidy surrounded by other Republican senators. (photo: AP)
Sen. Bill Cassidy surrounded by other Republican senators. (photo: AP)


ALSO SEE: John McCain's Will-He-or-Won't-He
Act Is Getting Old.

Trump Is Lying About the Republican Healthcare Bill Covering People With Pre-Existing Conditions

By Chris Riotta, Newsweek

21 September 17

 

resident Donald Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill are trying to assure Americans their latest effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) covers people with pre-existing conditions.

Both the president and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who with Senator Bill Cassidy (R-Louisiana) is co-sponsoring the health care bill known as the "Graham-Cassidy plan," took to Twitter to defend the legislation, expected to be up for a vote on the Senate floor next week. "I would not sign Graham-Cassidy if it did not include coverage of pre-existing conditions. It does! A great bill," Trump wrote Wednesday night. "Repeal & Replace."

Graham quoted the president’s tweet later Wednesday, adding that any claims his bill doesn’t cover those with pre-existing conditions should be called "#FakeNews on steroids!"

Unlike former President Barack Obama's landmark health care law, however, the new Republican bill would not guarantee coverage for people living with pre-existing conditions. Instead, the Graham-Cassidy plan would disproportionately harm sick people and Americans living with a variety of medical factors, who could see their insurance costs soar if the legislation were to pass.

The bill would allow states to opt to waive Obamacare rules requiring basic health benefits, essentially cutting protections for sick people in an effort to keep premiums from rising. The waivers allow states to charge more for health insurance offered to people with pre-existing conditions—including cancer, heart disease, Alzheimer's (or dementia), cerebral palsy and even pregnancy, among other medical factors that could have resulted in denied coverage prior to Obamacare—while continuing to receive federal block grant funding.

Experts say the bill could raise health care costs for those with pre-existing conditions to a point where insurance would be virtually unaffordable for millions of people.

The Graham-Cassidy plan would allow states to more easily gut protections for sick people than the previous Senate bill, the Better Care Reconciliation Act, as well as the House’s failed effort, the American Health Care Act. The earlier Senate bill would have let states request a reduction from the federal government in what was considered “essential health benefits," while the House bill would have allowed states to charge more for people living with certain pre-existing conditions when searching for insurance.

The new bill—seen by House Majority Leader Paul Ryan as "our best, last chance" to repeal Obamacare—has received criticism from the even health care industry, which said it would damage existing benefits and do little to reduce insurance premiums that continue to tick upward for millions of Americans.

"The Graham-Cassidy plan would take health insurance coverage away from millions of people, eliminate critical public health funding, devastate the Medicaid program, increase out-of-pocket costs and weaken or eliminate protections for people living with pre-existing conditions," Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Democrats are warning that if a sudden vote on the legislation is held before the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) can issue a full report on it, there could be serious implications for years to come.

"Thus far, every version of Republicans’ effort to repeal and replace the ACA has meant higher health costs, millions of hard-working Americans pushed off coverage, and key protections gutted with devastating consequences for those with pre-existing conditions," House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi wrote in a letter Monday to CBO Director Keith Hall. "A comprehensive CBO analysis is essential before Republicans force a hasty, dangerous vote on what is an extreme and destructive repeal bill."

So, while those with pre-existing conditions wouldn't have their insurance suddenly ripped away, the Graham-Cassidy plan could make it increasingly difficult for sick Americans to afford any insurance at all. Until the CBO is able to fully assess the latest Republican-led attempt to overhaul the nation's health care system, the bill's total impact will remain unknown. 


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FOCUS | The Anti-Bouazizi: Did Russia Try to 'Flash Mob' a Trump Victory? Print
Thursday, 21 September 2017 11:08

Cole writes: "Russian internet trolls linked to an oligarch close to Vladimir Putin went beyond just posting meme-making posters exalting Donald Trump and demeaning Hillary Clinton. They actually promoted 'flash mob' spontaneous protests in the real world in 17 cities."

Tunisian fruit seller Mohamed Bouazizi took his own life in protest over the confiscation of his fruit cart by Tunisian officials in 2011. (photo: unknown)
Tunisian fruit seller Mohamed Bouazizi took his own life in protest over the confiscation of his fruit cart by Tunisian officials in 2011. (photo: unknown)


The Anti-Bouazizi: Did Russia Try to 'Flash Mob' a Trump Victory?

By Juan Cole, Informed Comment

21 September 17

 

ussian internet trolls linked to an oligarch close to Vladimir Putin went beyond just posting meme-making posters exalting Donald Trump and demeaning Hillary Clinton. They actually promoted “flash mob” spontaneous protests in the real world in 17 cities, according to the scoop of Ben Collins, Gideon Resnick, Kevin Poulsen and Spencer Ackerman at the Daily Beast.

A flash mob is a crowd that gathers at a particular time and place in response to a call on the internet. Many are frivolous. Some turn dangerous. Others can set off revolutions.

In December of 2010, a flash mob was called by a California choral society to sing Handel’s messiah at a mall in California. Some 5,000 people showed up, and police had to evacuate them because it was felt that they might turn dangerous.

A similar incident had occurred earlier that fall in Philadelphia.

If flash mobs have been kind of large pranks in the US, in the Middle East they have shaken governments. The crowds that gathered in Tunisia after the police harassed Mohamed Bouazizi, who was selling vegetables in the street, and drove him to suicide, swelled to 200,000 strong in the capital of Tunis. They drove the president, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, from power in mid-January, 2011.

The difference here is that Bouazizi’s cause was genuinely taken up by Tunisian youth, as I explain in my book The New Arabs. The Russia effort was a piece of internet fraud, a cyber Potemkin Village.

The Tahrir Square revolution against Hosni Mubarak in Jan-Feb 2011 was only partially a flash mob. Most people came to the square because activists walked neighborhoods or sent text messages. Only a fourth came because they heard about it at social media sites.

The Gezi Park protests in Turkey in 2013 were to some extent flash mobs. Youth were protesting the plan of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) to put a mall into a public park. Privatizing public spaces is a way for authoritarian governments to exert control over crowds. Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan succeeded in crushing these protests.

The Russian pro-Trump hackers were attempting to replicate the Middle East success of the flash mob without knowing how it had been sited within civil society.

The question is still out as to whether Moscow managed actually to affect the outcome of the election. But it now seems pretty clear they they were trying to help Trump and hurt Hillary Clinton with danse club.


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FOCUS: Incoherent President Reassures UN That US Policy Is Insane Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=20877"><span class="small">William Boardman, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Thursday, 21 September 2017 10:45

Boardman writes: "With stunningly unintended precision, about a third of the way into his UN speech, President Trump encapsulated the current brutal reality of the United States in late 2017, where the righteous many do not confront the wicked few and evil oozes its slow and merciless triumph through the body politic."

President Trump addresses the 72nd Annual U.N. General Assembly in New York. (photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP)
President Trump addresses the 72nd Annual U.N. General Assembly in New York. (photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP)


Incoherent President Reassures UN That US Policy Is Insane

By William Boardman, Reader Supported News

21 September 17


“If the righteous many do not confront the wicked few, then evil will triumph.”

– Minority President Donald Trump, September 19, 2017, addressing the United Nations

ith stunningly unintended precision, about a third of the way into his UN speech, President Trump encapsulated the current brutal reality of the United States in late 2017, where the righteous many do not confront the wicked few and evil oozes its slow and merciless triumph through the body politic. Or perhaps the “righteous many” is another myth and the “wicked few” are the true majority. Wherever one looks, the news is not reassuring, whether it’s climate change, civil rights, police state treatment of minorities, rewarding the rich for their wealth, punishing the poor for their poverty, attacking voter rights, or bloating a military that specializes in killing civilians. Trump’s next sentence drove home the crucifying irony of the American moment: “When decent people and nations become bystanders to history, the forces of destruction only gather power and strength.”

Yes, they do. Yes, we do. We live now in a time of literal perpetual war in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and many of the other 100-plus sovereign states that have US boots on the ground. Before 9/11, the US was at war only most of the time, more spectacularly, but with no better results since 1945. This is not good; surely most UN members appreciate that, without having the nerve to say so. They did not applaud when Trump boasted:

We will be spending almost $700 billion on our military and defense.

$700,000,000,000 is a lot of money, and it doesn’t even include a big chunk for our nuclear arsenal that comes from the Energy Department. $700 billion is more money than anyone else spends on its military. $700 billion is roughly five times what China spends, nine times what Saudi Arabia spends, ten times what Russia spends, eleven times what India, France, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom spend. $700 billion is more than what these countries altogether spend. For Americans, military spending is an addiction that no longer produces a high, only a craving. Like any addiction, it is deeply destructive. And we knew that once, but now we’re junkies deeply in denial of our self-destruction. Endless war and out of control military spending have done much to destroy what we once believed was best about the US. Eisenhower belatedly warned us, but he was far from the first. Back in 1795, when the United States was three years old, James Madison wrote:

Of all the enemies of true liberty, war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded, because it comprises and develops the germ of every other. War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debt and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few…. No nation could preserve its freedom in the midst of continual warfare.

That’s pretty much the way it’s turning out, except there’s a possibility that the many are actually in favor of being dominated by the few. Or they’re intimidated. Or they’re mystified. Whatever is happening with the American people, Donald Trump represented them at the UN with a 41-minute pastiche of clichés, political pablum, incomprehensible nonsense, and meaningless feel-good rhetoric. (All the quotes that follow are from the official White House posting of the speech, reportedly written by 32-year-old hardliner Stephen Miller, a senior advisor for policy.) The speech begins in a curious campaign mode as Trump assures the representatives of 192 other countries that, much to their presumed relief:

The American people are strong and resilient, and they will emerge from these hardships more determined than ever before.

This referred to the US suffering from hurricanes. Trump said nothing of the suffering of Caribbean islands from hurricanes, or Bangladesh from flooding, or Mexico from earthquakes, or any other pain and anguish in the world. America first.

Then came a sloppy, unpersuasive best-of-times/worst-of-times passage in which Trump threat-mongered “terrorists and extremists” and then, with presumed unawareness, described the United States of recent decades:

Rogue regimes represented in this body not only support terrorists but threaten other nations and their own people with the most destructive weapons known to humanity.

The next sentence was perhaps the best of several instances of impenetrable nonsense:

Authority and authoritarian powers seek to collapse the values, the systems, and alliances that prevented conflict and tilted the world toward freedom since World War II.

The record includes dozens of wars since 1945, wars that the US promoted or participated in, with millions of casualties. The US has been at war 93% of the time since 1792. The US has been in covert or overt war, or both, or several, pretty much continuously since 1945. Soon after that, Trump launched into hyperbolic fantasy:

We have it in our power, should we so choose, to lift millions from poverty, to help our citizens realize their dreams, and to ensure that new generations of children are raised free from violence, hatred, and fear.

These are fine sentiments, to be sure, but not what most members of the UN are committed to achieving, and surely not what the Trump administration is about. But the passage was preamble to what struggled to be the thematic thread of the speech, the purported pillars of the Marshall Plan, “three beautiful pillars … peace, sovereignty, security, and prosperity.” Trump offered no plan to achieve these “pillars,” nor did he make a coherent argument beyond the platitudinous:

Our success depends on a coalition of strong and independent nations that embrace their sovereignty to promote security, prosperity, and peace for themselves and for the world.

Trump ran through several descriptions of what sovereign nations do without addressing the apparent contradiction inherent in the US defining how other nations should be sovereign. In this context, God made a first of several odd appearances before this most multicultural of assemblies:

And strong, sovereign nations allow individuals to flourish in the fullness of the life intended by God.

In concluding his litany of fuzzballs, Trump arrived at his first applause line (there were four), although why this line drew applause is somewhat mysterious:

As President of the United States, I will always put America first, just like you, as the leaders of your countries will always, and should always, put your countries first. (Applause.)

The sentiment must surely appeal to Saudi Arabia, Burma (Myanmar), Israel, or Egypt as much as to Cuba, Yemen, Venezuela, or North Korea, but Trump has at least a double standard for which leaders he will allow to “put your countries first.” Trump took a cheap shot at both Russia and China, but did it in a single sentence without any indication if he actually meant anything by it:

We must reject threats to sovereignty, from the Ukraine to the South China Sea.

As widely reported, Trump gave major attention to North Korea “for the starvation deaths of millions of North Koreans, and for the imprisonment, torture, killing, and oppression of countless more.” That sounds like a familiar sovereign pattern, especially if you substitute “Native Americans” for “North Koreans.” Trump did not go there, of course, preferring instead to threaten genocide, unless the UN could find some alternative:

That’s what the United Nations is all about; that’s what the United Nations is for. Let’s see how they do.

“Let’s see how they do?” The US is no longer in the UN? Trump’s Freudian slip is showing. Trump’s next big thing was Iran, about which he pretty much lied shamelessly, even blaming Iran for “Yemen’s civil war,” which doesn’t really exist. Yemen is a humanitarian catastrophe made obscenely worse by constant Saudi bombing with US collusion and support since it began in 2015. In this, Trump is as much a war criminal as Obama.

Once again casting the US as saintly, Trump disingenuously talked about all the US had done to help refugees, especially refugees from Syria and Iraq. You know, the ones he tried to ban. In this context he offered a priceless rationalization for American inhumanity:

For the cost of resettling one refugee in the United States, we can assist more than 10 in their home region. Out of the goodness of our hearts, we offer financial assistance to hosting countries in the region, and we support recent agreements of the G20 nations that will seek to host refugees as close to their home countries as possible. This is the safe, responsible, and humanitarian approach.

That’s a fairly clever, if transparent way of saying: keep those raghead terrorists in their own countries, or at least the ones next door. In the context of trashing Cuba and Venezuela, Trump uttered a bald-faced lie:

America stands with every person living under a brutal regime.

That’s never been true, as Palestinians in Gaza know, as Yemenis know, as Rohingya in Burma know, and black Americans in Missouri know, as native Americans know, as any sentient human should know. In this context, the ruthless hypocrisy of Trump’s closing stands in bold relief:

So let this be our mission, and let this be our message to the world: We will fight together, sacrifice together, and stand together for peace, for freedom, for justice, for family, for humanity, and for the almighty God who made us all.

Really? Is that why Trump was whining earlier in this speech about how much the US paid to keep the UN going?

Trump’s appearance at the UN was just another confirmation of just how awful he and his administration are, and probably no one has a clear understanding of the full extent of the Trump awfulness. And it just keeps coming. Turkish President Erdogan says Trump apologized to him for US indictments of Turkish security guards attacking peaceful protestors. The White House says Trump didn’t apologize for that. Does it matter either way? Trump’s America does not stand with Turks living under Erdogan’s brutal regime.



William M. Boardman has over 40 years experience in theatre, radio, TV, print journalism, and non-fiction, including 20 years in the Vermont judiciary. He has received honors from Writers Guild of America, Corporation for Public Broadcasting, Vermont Life magazine, and an Emmy Award nomination from the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.


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Is Trump About to Repeat George W. Bush's Worst Mistake? Print
Thursday, 21 September 2017 08:32

Fuchs writes: "If the United States and the world cannot convince Trump to support the Iran nuclear deal and instead focus on real problems, America may once again plunge into a violent disaster in the Middle East, and in the process damage efforts to deal with a country that already has nuclear weapons."

President Donald Trump speaks during the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York City on Sept. 19, 2017. (photo: Mary Altaffer/AP)
President Donald Trump speaks during the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly at U.N. headquarters in New York City on Sept. 19, 2017. (photo: Mary Altaffer/AP)


Is Trump About to Repeat George W. Bush's Worst Mistake?

By Michael H. Fuchs, Guardian UK

21 September 17


In 2002, Bush used his UN speech to argue for action against Iraq. Let’s hope Trump’s first UN speech isn’t the opening salvo in a preventable war with Iran

n 2003, the United States initiated perhaps the greatest strategic disaster in US history by diverting attention from a necessary war in Afghanistan to an unnecessary war in Iraq. The Iraq war resulted in hundreds of thousands dead and wounded, untold economic catastrophe, states in the Middle East in complete ruin, and the rise of Isis – all while the effort to go after terrorists in Afghanistan languished.

President Donald Trump’s first speech before the United Nations general assembly this week made clear that Trump wants to take America down a similar path by diverting much-needed attention from North Korea to starting an unnecessary conflict with Iran.

If the United States and the world cannot convince Trump to support the Iran nuclear deal and instead focus on real problems, America may once again plunge into a violent disaster in the Middle East, and in the process damage efforts to deal with a country that already has nuclear weapons.

The threat from North Korea is real, and Trump used his speech to outline the need for an international pressure campaign against Kim Jong-un. There is little disagreement on the need for a tough stance against North Korea, as evidenced by the UN security council’s recent unanimous vote to impose new sanctions.

But Trump is having a difficult time implementing a coherent strategy on North Korea. He has picked a fight with America’s South Korean ally, whose support is essential. He frequently hurls hyperbolic rhetoric, raising the chances of miscalculation that could lead to conflict. And he talks as though war is inevitable, a theme he reiterated before the world’s leaders when he said, “Rocket Man [Kim Jong-un] is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime.”

Significant challenges remain in dealing with North Korea, even if Trump can get his own act together. China is unwilling to apply maximum pressure on North Korea for fear Pyongyang will collapse. Enforcing sanctions elsewhere is often like putting fingers in a dam full of leaks. It’s unclear what kind of a diplomatic deal the United States wants with North Korea. And little seems capable of convincing Kim Jong-un that he will be safe without nuclear weapons.

With obstacles this great, Trump should be providing leadership in pursuing an effective international strategy to deter North Korea, reassure US allies, add sanctions pressure, and engage in real diplomacy.

Instead, Trump is looking to rip up the deal that is currently preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. If he succeeds in doing so, he will help turn Iran into the next North Korea and ratchet up the chances of conflict.

The deal prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon for years. UN inspectors have verified that Iran is complying with the terms of the deal. Even Trump’s administration has certified twice that Iran is living up to its end of the bargain. Moreover, the world backs the deal, with Russia, China and Europe all helping to enforce it.

If an Iran-style nuclear deal had been on the table at any point with North Korea, the United States would have jumped at the opportunity (and in fact came very close to making the Agreed Framework deal with North Korea work in the 1990s). Tearing up the Iran deal would be the strategic equivalent of shooting oneself in the foot.

But that’s exactly what Trump seems to want. In his UN speech, Trump placed the Iran nuclear deal in his sights: “The Iran deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into. Frankly, that deal is an embarrassment to the United States, and I don’t think you’ve heard the last of it. Believe me.” Recent reports back up this message that Trump intends to rip up the deal, and the US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, almost said as much in a recent speech on Iran.

It’s hard to overstate the potential disaster of destroying the Iran deal. Iran would be incentivized to race to get a nuclear weapon. The partners that helped make the Iran deal happen – Europe, China, Russia – would leave the US behind and continue doing business with Iran, making impossible any renewal of international pressure. And if Iran actually acquired a nuclear weapon, it could embolden Iran to escalate its regional provocations. All of this would result in more confrontation with the United States, and greater chances of war.

In fact, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal would undermine Trump’s efforts to convince the world that he is looking for a diplomatic solution with North Korea: if Trump is willing to rip up a deal preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, why should anyone believe he’s willing to deal with North Korea? And why would North Korea deal with Trump if he doesn’t live up to US commitments?

In 2002, less than a year after invading Afghanistan, President George W Bush used his speech before the UN general assembly to make the case to the world for action against Iraq. Let’s hope, when history looks back on Trump’s first UN speech, it’s not viewed as the opening salvo in a completely preventable war with Iran.


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