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Health Care Lobbyists Are Trying to Block the Public Option at the State Level |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=57403"><span class="small">Julia Rock, Jacobin</span></a>
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Friday, 21 May 2021 12:53 |
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Rock writes: "Joe Biden said on the campaign trail he would fight for a public option for health care. He hasn't - leaving health insurance companies, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies to work overtime to block states from passing their own public options."
Aetna will be investigated by the state Department of Managed Health Care and the California Department of Insurance. (photo: Jessica Hill/AP)

Health Care Lobbyists Are Trying to Block the Public Option at the State Level
By Julia Rock, Jacobin
21 May 21
Joe Biden said on the campaign trail he would fight for a public option for health care. He hasn't — leaving health insurance companies, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies to work overtime to block states from passing their own public options.
hen President Joe Biden outlined his legislative priorities during his first address to Congress last month, notably absent was a major campaign promise: a public health insurance option. Instead, his current health reform proposal will funnel $200 billion more to private insurance companies to subsidize premiums, without any requirement that they cap out-of-pocket costs or eliminate them altogether.
As a result of Biden’s approach, states have been left to introduce public option legislation themselves, in the process taking on some of the nation’s largest and most politically organized businesses. From coast to coast, health insurance companies, hospitals, and pharmaceutical companies are using every tactic at their disposal to block states from passing public option legislation.
Such efforts show how determined the industry is to block any sort of reform that threatens its massive profits.
In particular, the Partnership for America’s Health Care Future Action (PAHCF Action), the state arm of the dark money group that has opposed Medicare for All and a public option at the federal level, has spent millions of dollars on TV ads and mailers in Colorado, Connecticut, and other states where public option bills are being considered. The group has spent more on lobbying in Colorado in 2021 than any other organization since 2011, and possibly ever.
As a result, the actual public option component of the Colorado legislation was removed in an agreement made with the hospital industry. What’s left of the bill is a requirement that private insurers offer so-called “standardized” health insurance plans and cut premiums on those plans by 18 percent over three years. Despite the overhaul, the industry has continued to oppose the plan.
“It’s a little intriguing to me that this is becoming such a big deal, because the bill is actually very narrow,” Rep. Dylan Roberts, the lead sponsor of the Colorado legislation, told the Daily Poster/Newsweek, before the bill was watered down. He added, “It’s not a total overhaul of the health care system in Colorado or in the United States by any means. So the opposition to me is a little intriguing on that front.”
Lobbyists Gut Colorado Option
In Colorado, PAHCF Action is smashing state lobbying records by spending millions of dollars to kill its public option proposal. The organization is running a full-scale advocacy campaign, blanketing the television airwaves and filling people’s mailboxes with propaganda.
While PAHCF Action’s donors are not public, its board includes top executives from lobbying groups for investor-owned hospital chains and health insurers.
The organization’s president is Chip Kahn, who leads the Federation of American Hospitals. His group lobbies for hospital chains like HCA Healthcare and Tenet Healthcare.
HCA reported $3.5 billion in profit last year, and its CEO made $83.6 million, according to Axios. The hospital chain owns seven hospitals in Colorado, including one that drew national headlines in 2019 for billing an emergency room patient more than $12,000 to treat a hangover after his bachelor party.
While HCA does not disclose its political contributions, Tenet has reported donating nearly $2.9 million to PAHCF between 2018 and 2020, according to company political spending disclosures. Tenet has a dozen surgery centers in Colorado, according to its website.
PAHCF Action’s secretary is David Merritt, a senior executive at America’s Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), which lobbies for big health insurers like Aetna.
CVS Health, which owns Aetna, donated $5 million last year to the national Partnership for America’s Health Care Future (PAHCF), according to reporting by the Intercept.
The dark money group isn’t alone: 149 individual lobbyists in the state are registered as opposing the legislation. These lobbyists represent AHIP, Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Cigna, UnitedHealth Group, and Kaiser Permanente, among other corporate interests. Americans for Prosperity, the Koch network’s political advocacy arm, has sixteen lobbyists alone registered in opposition of the bill.
These influence peddlers have already had significant success. Last year, lobbyists helped kill a public option proposal in the state. This year, legislators proposed a scaled-down version of the public option plan, one that would allow the state to set up a public option in two years if private insurers failed to set up standardized plans that meet certain cost criteria.
But even this legislation was derailed by special interest groups. In late April, lawmakers removed the public option component from the bill following negotiations with insurance industry lobbying groups and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU) of Colorado, which opposed the bill. The SEIU Local 105 argued that the premium-cutting measures in the legislation would lead to layoffs of health care workers at hospitals.
“Even as the bill has changed, they’ve had the same generic talking points about a government takeover of health care that doesn’t reflect what’s actually in the bill,” Roberts said.
The health care industry still opposes the bill, even in its weakened state.
On May 12, two days after the modified bill passed the Colorado House, the Taxpayers Protection Alliance (TPA), a Koch-affiliated political advocacy group, announced an “ad blitz” to oppose the legislation as it moves forward. Their so-called “No Big Handouts for Big Insurance” campaign will involve a statewide ad campaign targeting the rate-setting element of the legislation, according to a TPA press release.
The idea that big insurers would benefit from the legislation is more than a little dubious, given that health insurance lobbyists are helping lead the campaign to kill it.
Standoff in the Insurance Capital
Connecticut has long been a flash point in the battle over a public option. Hartford, the state capital, is known as the “Insurance Capital of the World,” because a number of the world’s largest insurance companies — Cigna, The Hartford, Chubb, and until recently Aetna — are headquartered there, and are also major employers.
The industry has used its presence in the state as leverage to kill public option efforts. In 2019, Cigna reportedly threatened to leave if the state passed public option legislation. Between that threat and a massive lobbying effort by the insurance industry against the legislation, the bill never passed.
Now the industry is doing it again. Last month, the CEOs of Anthem, Cigna, CVSHealth, Tufts Health Plan, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, and UnitedHealth Group wrote a letter to Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, thanking him for opposing the legislature’s public option legislation and implicitly threatening to leave the state if it passes.
“The pandemic has demonstrated that employees can work virtually, making it easier for companies to choose where they are domiciled and grow,” the letter said. “As a result, it has never been more critical for the State to create a climate that retains and attracts businesses that will help stabilize the economy. All of us will have to decide where it will be best to deploy our resources long term. Private employers and taxpayers should not fund unsustainable public policy pursuits.” (When CVS acquired Aetna in 2018, it promised to keep Aetna headquartered in Hartford for at least a decade, and retain its staffing levels at least until 2022.)
UnitedHealth Group, whose CEO signed the letter to Lamont, held a webinar in February to train its employees to lobby against the legislation, the Daily Poster previously reported. According to the PAHCF Action’s first quarter lobbying report in Connecticut, the group has spent roughly $126,000 on lobbying so far this year, including about $95,000 on compensation and $31,000 on solicitations.
Beyond PAHCF Action, health insurance companies and businesses are also engaged in lobbying through other front groups or direct lobbying on the public option legislation.
The Connecticut Hospital Association, whose members include dozens of hospitals as well as insurance companies such as Anthem Blue Cross & Blue Shield and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, has spent $296,000 on lobbying during the first quarter of this year, according to state filings.
Meanwhile, the Connecticut Association of Health Plans has spent $133,000 on lobbying and $1,200 on paid media during the first quarter of this year, according to state filings. The group’s president is Tim Meyers of Aetna, the insurance giant owned by CVS, and its treasurer and secretary work in government relations for ConnectiCare and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, respectively.
The opposition’s talking points don’t reflect what the bill would actually do, says Tom Swan, the executive director of the Connecticut Citizen Action Group, a group advocating for the public option legislation. “A lot of their campaign is just railing against a bill that doesn’t exist,” Swan said.
“They’re saying, ‘don’t let them do a one-size-fits-all health insurance option,'” said Swan, who added that in truth, the bill includes multiple different public option plans and does not interfere with the private insurance industry’s capacity to operate.
Without action on health care at the federal level, more states may try to take on the health care industry and its national advocacy groups themselves.
Nevada, a state with one of the highest uninsured rates in the nation, recently introduced its own public option bill — and PAHCF Action immediately launched an operation to kill it.

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FOCUS: How Pramila Jayapal Views the Biden Administration |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51540"><span class="small">Peter Slevin, The New Yorker</span></a>
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Friday, 21 May 2021 11:38 |
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Slevin writes: "The leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus has been surprised by how much she agrees with the President."
Rep. Pramila Jayapal. (photo: Flickr)

How Pramila Jayapal Views the Biden Administration
By Peter Slevin, The New Yorker
21 May 21
The leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus has been surprised by how much she agrees with the President.
s Joe Biden laid out a grand vision for his Presidency, in a speech before Congress late last month, cameras caught Representative Pramila Jayapal standing and applauding. Behind her face mask, she later told an aide, she was smiling. This was not the Joe Biden whom progressives like Jayapal expected to see when he meandered out of the Democratic pack and vanquished their champions, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, in last year’s primaries. That was the avuncular centrist who persuaded enough voters that he was the safe choice to beat Donald Trump in November. But this Joe Biden is going much, much bigger. As Jayapal said, “President Biden has risen to the moment, and I really do give him an ‘A’ in what he’s done so far. It’s been bold, it’s been progressive, it’s been what the country needs.”
Jayapal is the leader of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, whose ninety-five members have found themselves, to their surprise, pushing on an open door in the early months of the Biden Presidency. After years of frustration with the incrementalist approaches of the Party’s most powerful Democrats, they are backing a White House occupant who is pursuing progressive priorities more strongly than any President since Lyndon Johnson or Franklin Roosevelt. Biden’s agenda has only grown more ambitious, evident in his endorsement of federal legislation on voting rights and police reform; his $2.25 trillion jobs, infrastructure, and climate plan; and, now, his $1.8 trillion American Families Plan. “It feels like we’re actually doing what we came to Congress to do,” Jayapal said, when we spoke recently.
Jayapal was working from home, in Seattle, in early February, with the chatter of cable news in the background, when Biden stepped to a White House lectern to tout his American Rescue Plan and its $1.9 trillion in spending. He laid out the benefits, including relief checks, rental assistance, money for child care, and family leave—plus billions to cities, states, and small businesses. Though the principal motivation was the continuing fallout from COVID-19, this was a wholehearted White House endorsement of spending priorities that Jayapal and her colleagues on the left of the Democratic Party had long advocated. But she really perked up when she heard Biden say, “The biggest risk is not going too big. . . . It’s if we go too small.” Jayapal called across the room to her husband, “That’s our line! He used our line!”
Embarking on Democratic control of the White House and Congress for the first time in a decade, Jayapal had been urging Party leaders to use the phrase and ditch the cautious solutions that had defined the Presidencies of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. With slim majorities in the House and the Senate, the Senate filibuster stands in the way. Jayapal favors invoking procedural maneuvers—such as the budget-reconciliation process, if possible—or reforming or eliminating the filibuster, if necessary. Jayapal told me, “We can’t go back to voters and say, ‘You know what, I’m really sorry, but there are these racist, arcane Senate procedures that stopped us from doing what we said we would do if you gave us the House, the Senate, and the White House.’ ” In other words, go big, even if it means that Republicans may benefit when they next take charge of the upper chamber. “For anybody who says, ‘Well, then what happens if the Republicans are in power and then we don’t have any backstops?,’ I’d say, ‘If we don’t do this, they will be in power.’ ”
On April 21st, she and Sanders introduced the College for All Act, which would eliminate tuition and fees at public colleges and universities, and also at nonprofit historically Black colleges and universities, for families earning less than a hundred and twenty-five thousand dollars a year. It would also double the size of Pell Grant awards, to nearly thirteen thousand dollars per year, and make community colleges and public trade schools free. This is significantly more ambitious than Biden’s American Families Plan. According to details released last month by the White House, Biden’s proposal would deliver two years of free community college, an increase of fourteen hundred dollars in Pell Grant awards, and thirty-nine billion dollars in income-based tuition support for students attending H.B.C.U.s and other colleges that serve tribal and certain other minority communities. “It’s a progressive moment,” she told me. “It’s a populist moment. It’s an urgent moment.”
Jayapal, who is fifty-five, is serving her third term in Congress. Born in Madras, now Chennai, she grew up in India, Singapore, and Indonesia; arrived in the United States, at age sixteen, to attend Georgetown University; and eventually became a naturalized U.S. citizen. After earning an M.B.A. and working in the private sector, she spent nearly a decade working on health-equity issues for PATH, a global nonprofit. The backlash against immigrants of color, including Muslims, Arab Americans, and South Asians, following the September 11th attacks, prompted her to establish Hate Free Zone, now known as OneAmerica, a Seattle-based immigrant-rights organization that she ran for a dozen years. She won a seat in the Washington State Senate, in 2014, and in the U.S. Congress two years later. A backer of Medicare for All, during the Trump Administration she prodded Democrats to move beyond what she called “murky moderation.”
In 2020, Jayapal supported universal health insurance and chaired Sanders’s health-policy team, but her hopes for a progressive turn were muted after Biden won the nomination. She became more hopeful last summer, after leading the Biden-Sanders health-care-policy committee, when Biden unexpectedly pledged support for an array of progressive ideas. To apply pressure, Jayapal and her colleagues in the Congressional Progressive Caucus announced, in December, a sweeping set of priorities that stretched from cancelling student debt and restructuring tax policy to ending the war in Afghanistan. Yet, even after Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock won their Georgia runoffs, shifting Senate control to the Democrats, she wondered whether a party pinned to the middle ground for decades would budge. “Would we actually deliver?” she asked herself.
By every indication, Biden aims to deliver, guided by what is fast becoming the animating principle of his Presidency: an expanded, activist role for the federal government as funder, incubator, regulator, agenda setter, and service provider. “Government must be a powerful force for good in the lives of Americans,” Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, told the Wall Street Journal. He also said that the Administration would be “unapologetic” about a particular point, and there was that phrase again: “The risk of doing too little outweighs the risk of doing too much.”
Biden himself has generally avoided press conferences and interviews, but he is defending his policies in controlled settings. His speech to Congress, lasting slightly longer than an hour and delivered in muted tones, was the fullest description of his vision he has yet offered. (He ended by saying, “Thank you for your patience.”) He spoke of the need to demonstrate the resilience of American democracy, after the transgressions of the Trump Administration and the former President’s followers, but one could substitute the word “government.” “In our first one hundred days together,” he said, “we have acted to restore the people’s faith in our democracy to deliver. We’re vaccinating the nation, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. We’re delivering real results—people, they can see it, feel in their own lives.”
One sign of the challenges that Biden will face in gathering support for his agenda—and maintaining Democratic control of Congress next year—is clear in the findings of a Washington Post-ABC News poll, conducted in mid-April. Fifty-three per cent of all respondents said that they are worried that he will “do too much to increase the size and role of government.” As Biden addressed Congress, a fund-raising e-mail from the Republican National Committee popped into my in-box, with the subject line, “Are you watching Biden’s speech?” I was. It read, in a style that typified the R.N.C. during the Trump era, “You don’t have to sit through Joe Biden’s speech to know he’s a member of the Radical Left and wants to force his BIG GOVERNMENT SOCIALIST agenda on the entire Country.” The e-mail asked for a donation as evidence that “the American people see through his LIES.” Similar house-on-fire messaging, echoed by like-minded pundits and media outlets, boosted Republicans last year in large swaths of the country.
When I asked Jayapal about this line of attack and its potential impact on the 2022 midterm elections, when—history suggests—the party in power will lose lustre, and seats, she was blunt. “They’re going to do that, no matter what,” she said. “Every President that passed a major program that is enormously successful, whether it’s Medicare or Social Security, or pushed for those things, was called a socialist.” The surest way to counter the invective and the labels, she said, is to deliver results that improve voters’ lives. “The only thing that’s going to work for us as Democrats is to actually push ideas that are populist,” she said. “What would’ve happened if we had passed a fifteen-dollar minimum wage five or six years ago? Would we have lost all these voters to Donald Trump?”
Any number of Republicans would like to lay claim to voters who turned out for Trump and helped elect down-ballot G.O.P. candidates. Increasingly, they are appealing to populism. Marco Rubio, the Florida senator, has lambasted mostly unidentified corporate big shots as hypocrites who are “waging a merciless war against traditional values.” Ted Cruz, his Texas counterpart, has called himself a populist with “deep libertarian principles.” He told the Washington Examiner, last year, “Republicans have become the party of the working class.”
At the head of the purportedly populist class is Josh Hawley, of Missouri. He led the Senate opposition to certifying Biden’s clear victory, and he raised objections even after rioters invaded the Capitol. Almost two years ago, at the National Conservatism Conference, he attacked “cosmopolitan priorities,” “cosmopolitan elite,” and the “globalizing and liberationist policies of the cosmopolitan agenda.” At this year’s Conservative Political Action Conference, he lumped together “corporate America and the radical left.” On May 4th, he released a book, blurbed by Tucker Carlson and J. D. Vance, called “The Tyranny of Big Tech,” building on the thinking that led him to introduce an antitrust bill attacking large technology firms. (Adding a culture-wars edge, he called them, in a press release, “Woke Big Tech companies like Google and Amazon.”)
Jayapal recalled, with approval, Hawley’s support of government pay for workers early in the COVID-19 outbreak, and his partnership with Sanders on a new round of stimulus checks. But, she added, “It’s a selective populism,” noting that Hawley joined every other Republican in Congress in opposing Biden’s rescue package, and that he supports policies, including the Trump-approved tax cuts, that “transfer wealth to the wealthiest, even more than the economy already does.” Representative Marie Newman, of Illinois, a progressive Democrat, was more succinct. She would tell Hawley, “You’re against fifteen dollars an hour. You’re anti-union. Please let me know how you are pro-worker, and then I’ll have a discussion with you.” (Hawley has introduced a bill that would require companies with revenues of a billion dollars or more to pay a fifteen-dollar minimum wage.)
Ro Khanna, a co-chair of Sanders’s 2020 campaign and a deputy whip of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, represents Silicon Valley and calls himself a “progressive capitalist.” He considers Biden’s endorsement of government-driven solutions and public-sector investments a welcome corrective to neoliberalism and Clinton’s declaration, in 1996, that “the era of big government is over.” But he says that the Democratic leadership “has not found the best way to push back on the Republican messaging about the economy.” When we spoke, he launched into a nuanced argument that “free-market absolutism” has led to brick-and-mortar bankruptcies, the decline of small towns, and policies that privilege speculation over productive investment. Lost somewhere in the neoliberal model, he said, is a commitment to the common good. And, lost somewhere in his description, he later conceded, is a tight message. “Now, I’m sure that’s a little bit too convoluted,” he said, “and we have to narrow it further. We have to be the Party that says, ‘We’re about rebuilding America, we’re about growth, we’re about opportunity.’ ” (Or, as Newman put it to me, “How about we just deliver and we keep our message super-simple: ‘Shots in arms. Jobs for people. Money in pockets.’ ”)
Khanna credits Biden with moving to the left and recognizing the staying power of “the ascendant progressive movement” and the fact that many Americans are upset with “fundamental inequality.” But he sees a tension between the power moves required by Biden to transform the economy and the President’s conviction that he was elected to find common ground and heal the country. “We’ve got a long way to go,” he said, “before we can proclaim this the next progressive era.”
Jayapal does see something “transformative” in the way Biden perceives the role of government as an equalizer of opportunity. Even the starting points, she said, represent a “huge shift.” “Part of the reason we lost people is because we didn’t deliver for them,” Jayapal told me. “If we can really deliver on a big infrastructure package, if we can really deliver on things like paid leave and child care,” she said, voters will “wake up and feel different about what opportunity the world offers them.”

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RSN: Hamas's Negotiating Demands Seem Reasonable |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=63"><span class="small">Marc Ash, Reader Supported News</span></a>
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Friday, 21 May 2021 08:19 |
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Ash writes: "It is important to consider Hamas's demands carefully, but for real progress to be made there must be a fair and impartial judicial process to resolve land and property disputes between Israelis and Palestinians."
A bomb supplied by the US and dropped by Israel lies unexploded on a bed in a family home in Gaza. (photo: New York Times)

Hamas's Negotiating Demands Seem Reasonable
By Marc Ash, Reader Supported News
21 May 21
n the surface Hamas’s cease-fire negotiating demands, seen in context, seem reasonable: “That Israeli forces and police agree to never again enter the al-Aqsa mosque, as they did earlier this month, and that Palestinians living in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in disputed east Jerusalem not be evicted by Jewish settlers from homes their families have lived in since the 1950s.”
Those really should not be insurmountable obstacles to peace.
It should be noted that the Israelis argue that the properties in the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood were owned by Israeli Jews prior to the 1948 Balfour realignment. Perhaps, but who is to say?
The larger problem, a problem that lies at core of the long, bloody Israeli-Palestinian conflict, is the lack of a fair and impartial Judiciary to resolve land disputes. Which is critical because most Israeli-Palestinian violence can be traced back to land or property disputes.
The Israeli courts have historically leaned heavily in favor of the rights and arguments of Israelis in land and property disputes. While that’s no surprise, it leaves those who dispute land and property issues without a peaceful means of resolution, the cornerstone of a civil society.
It is important to consider Hamas’s demands carefully, but for real progress to be made there must be a fair and impartial judicial process to resolve land and property disputes between Israelis and Palestinians. Fair and impartial to Israelis and fair and impartial to Palestinians.
Truly fair and truly impartial being the only standard that will bring lasting peace. Hint: The Palestinians will agree to this, but the Israelis will likely be very resistant.
Marc Ash is the founder and former Executive Director of Truthout, and is now founder and Editor of Reader Supported News.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earths: The Post-Petroleum Resource Race and What to Make of It |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=20415"><span class="small">Michael Klare, TomDispatch</span></a>
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Thursday, 20 May 2021 12:48 |
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Klare writes: "Thanks to its very name - renewable energy - we can picture a time in the not-too-distant future when our need for non-renewable fuels like oil, natural gas, and coal will vanish."
Cobalt miner in Democratic Republic of the Congo. (photo: AFP)

Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earths: The Post-Petroleum Resource Race and What to Make of It
By Michael Klare, TomDispatch
20 May 21
[Note for TomDispatch Readers: A last reminder that you can get a signed, personalized copy of Andrew Bacevich’s new book, After the Apocalypse: America’s Role in a World Transformed, by donating at least $100 ($125 if you live outside the U.S.) to TD. Peter Beinart calls it “a timely, angry, deeply necessary book about the habits of mind that have damaged America, and how to change them.” Check out our donation page for the details. The offer, however, may not last much longer, given the number of requests that came in with Bacevich’s recent piece. The book (which you should definitely get your hands on) is due out on June 8th and he’ll send a signed copy to you as soon as he receives it himself. As ever, my thanks for supporting TomDispatch through such increasingly grim years!]
These days in Washington, it’s competition with and hostility to China all the way to the bank. The political class in Congress and the Biden White House, as well as the punditariat that goes with them, seem increasingly swept up in a new-cold-war mentality. It doesn’t matter whether we’re talking about the latest bipartisan Senate bill to support technological development in this country — that, by the way, House conservatives are already critiquing as not faintly anti-Chinese enough — or the CEO of Lockheed Martin fanning the anti-China flames in order to acquire rocket-engine maker Aerojet Rocketdyne without running into antitrust problems.
If you want something in Washington, whatever it might be, the most obvious way to frame getting it is as a response to the dangers of, or the need to compete better with, China. And the Pentagon has certainly taken note. Despite its ongoing wars elsewhere, it seems to have its “near-peer” competitor in its sights 24/7. And yet, as TomDispatch regular Michael Klare, author of All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change and founder of the Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy, makes clear today, such a new-cold-war framework is likely, among other things, to significantly undermine the path to Joe Biden’s renewable energy future.
If the two greatest greenhouse-gas emitters on this planet can’t work together, we’re all going to be living in a more or less literal hell (as the E.P.A. suggested just the other day in reference to this already overheating country of ours). If we can’t cooperate, whatever our differences, it will be a disaster for China — and for the U.S. In that context, consider the ways in which Biden’s focus on a green future will, in the most literal sense imaginable, need the support of that country, a reality Klare illuminates in a way I’ve not seen before.
-Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch
hanks to its very name — renewable energy — we can picture a time in the not-too-distant future when our need for non-renewable fuels like oil, natural gas, and coal will vanish. Indeed, the Biden administration has announced a breakthrough target of 2035 for fully eliminating U.S. reliance on those non-renewable fuels for the generation of electricity. That would be accomplished by “deploying carbon-pollution-free electricity-generating resources,” primarily the everlasting power of the wind and sun.
With other nations moving in a similar direction, it’s tempting to conclude that the days when competition over finite supplies of energy was a recurring source of conflict will soon draw to a close. Unfortunately, think again: while the sun and wind are indeed infinitely renewable, the materials needed to convert those resources into electricity — minerals like cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and the rare-earth elements, or REEs — are anything but. Some of them, in fact, are far scarcer than petroleum, suggesting that global strife over vital resources may not, in fact, disappear in the Age of Renewables.
To appreciate this unexpected paradox, it’s necessary to explore how wind and solar power are converted into usable forms of electricity and propulsion. Solar power is largely collected by photovoltaic cells, often deployed in vast arrays, while the wind is harvested by giant turbines, typically deployed in extensive wind farms. To use electricity in transportation, cars and trucks must be equipped with advanced batteries capable of holding a charge over long distances. Each one of these devices uses substantial amounts of copper for electrical transmission, as well as a variety of other non-renewable minerals. Those wind turbines, for instance, require manganese, molybdenum, nickel, zinc, and rare-earth elements for their electrical generators, while electric vehicles (EVs) need cobalt, graphite, lithium, manganese, and rare earths for their engines and batteries.
At present, with wind and solar power accounting for only about 7% of global electricity generation and electric vehicles making up less than 1% of the cars on the road, the production of those minerals is roughly adequate to meet global demand. If, however, the U.S. and other countries really do move toward a green-energy future of the kind envisioned by President Biden, the demand for them will skyrocket and global output will fall far short of anticipated needs.
According to a recent study by the International Energy Agency (IEA), “The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions,” the demand for lithium in 2040 could be 50 times greater than today and for cobalt and graphite 30 times greater if the world moves swiftly to replace oil-driven vehicles with EVs. Such rising demand will, of course, incentivize industry to develop new supplies of such minerals, but potential sources of them are limited and the process of bringing them online will be costly and complicated. In other words, the world could face significant shortages of critical materials. (“As clean energy transitions accelerate globally,” the IEA report noted ominously, “and solar panels, wind turbines, and electric cars are deployed on a growing scale, these rapidly growing markets for key minerals could be subject to price volatility, geopolitical influence, and even disruptions to supply.”)
And here’s a further complication: for a number of the most critical materials, including lithium, cobalt, and those rare-earth elements, production is highly concentrated in just a few countries, a reality that could lead to the sort of geopolitical struggles that accompanied the world’s dependence on a few major sources of oil. According to the IEA, just one country, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), currently supplies more than 80% of the world’s cobalt, and another — China — 70% of its rare-earth elements. Similarly, lithium production is largely in two countries, Argentina and Chile, which jointly account for nearly 80% of world supply, while four countries — Argentina, Chile, the DRC, and Peru — provide most of our copper. In other words, such future supplies are far more concentrated in far fewer lands than petroleum and natural gas, leading IEA analysts to worry about future struggles over the world’s access to them.
From Oil to Lithium: the Geopolitical Implications of the Electric-Car Revolution
The role of petroleum in shaping global geopolitics is well understood. Ever since oil became essential to world transportation — and so to the effective functioning of the world’s economy — it has been viewed for obvious reasons as a “strategic” resource. Because the largest concentrations of petroleum were located in the Middle East, an area historically far removed from the principal centers of industrial activity in Europe and North America and regularly subject to political convulsions, the major importing nations long sought to exercise some control over that region’s oil production and export. This, of course, led to resource imperialism of a high order, beginning after World War I when Britain and the other European powers contended for colonial control of the oil-producing parts of the Persian Gulf region. It continued after World War II, when the United States entered that competition in a big way.
For the United States, ensuring access to Middle Eastern oil became a strategic priority after the “oil shocks” of 1973 and 1979 — the first caused by an Arab oil embargo that was a reprisal for Washington’s support of Israel in that year’s October War; the second by a disruption of supplies caused by the Islamic Revolution in Iran. In response to endless lines at American gas stations and the subsequent recessions, successive presidents pledged to protect oil imports by “any means necessary,” including the use of armed force. And that very stance led President George H.W. Bush to wage the first Gulf War against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991 and his son to invade that same country in 2003.
In 2021, the United States is no longer as dependent on Middle Eastern oil, given how extensively domestic deposits of petroleum-laden shale and other sedimentary rocks are being exploited by fracking technology. Still, the connection between oil use and geopolitical conflict has hardly disappeared. Most analysts believe that petroleum will continue to supply a major share of global energy for decades to come, and that’s certain to generate political and military struggles over the remaining supplies. Already, for instance, conflict has broken out over disputed offshore supplies in the South and East China Seas, and some analysts predict a struggle for the control of untapped oil and mineral deposits in the Arctic region as well.
Here, then, is the question of the hour: Will an explosion in electric-car ownership change all this? EV market share is already growing rapidly and projected to reach 15% of worldwide sales by 2030. The major automakers are investing heavily in such vehicles, anticipating a surge in demand. There were around 370 EV models available for sale worldwide in 2020 — a 40% increase from 2019 — and major automakers have revealed plans to make an additional 450 models available by 2022. In addition, General Motors has announced its intention to completely phase out conventional gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2035, while Volvo’s CEO has indicated that the company would only sell EVs by 2030.
It’s reasonable to assume that this shift will only gain momentum, with profound consequences for the global trade in resources. According to the IEA, a typical electric car requires six times the mineral inputs of a conventional oil-powered vehicle. These include the copper for electrical wiring plus the cobalt, graphite, lithium, and nickel needed to ensure battery performance, longevity, and energy density (the energy output per unit of weight). In addition, rare-earth elements will be essential for the permanent magnets installed in EV motors.
Lithium, a primary component of lithium-ion batteries used in most EVs, is the lightest known metal. Although present both in clay deposits and ore composites, it’s rarely found in easily mineable concentrations, though it can also be extracted from brine in areas like Bolivia’s Salar de Uyuni, the world’s largest salt flat. At present, approximately 58% of the world’s lithium comes from Australia, another 20% from Chile, 11% from China, 6% from Argentina, and smaller percentages from elsewhere. A U.S. firm, Lithium Americas, is about to undertake the extraction of significant amounts of lithium from a clay deposit in northern Nevada, but is meeting resistance from local ranchers and Native Americans, who fear the contamination of their water supplies.
Cobalt is another key component of lithium-ion batteries. It’s rarely found in unique deposits and most often acquired as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining. Today, it’s almost entirely produced thanks to copper mining in the violent, chaotic Democratic Republic of the Congo, mostly in what’s known as the copper belt of Katanga Province, a region which once sought to break away from the rest of the country and still harbors secessionist impulses.
Rare-earth elements encompass a group of 17 metallic substances scattered across the Earth’s surface but rarely found in mineable concentrations. Among them, several are essential for future green-energy solutions, including dysprosium, lanthanum, neodymium, and terbium. When used as alloys with other minerals, they help perpetuate the magnetization of electrical motors under high-temperature conditions, a key requirement for electric vehicles and wind turbines. At present, approximately 70% of REEs come from China, perhaps 12% from Australia, and 8% from the U.S.
A mere glance at the location of such concentrations suggests that the green-energy transition envisioned by President Biden and other world leaders may encounter severe geopolitical problems, not unlike those generated in the past by reliance on oil. As a start, the most militarily powerful nation on the planet, the United States, can supply itself with only tiny percentages of REEs, as well as other critical minerals like nickel and zinc needed for advanced green technologies. While Australia, a close ally, will undoubtedly be an important supplier of some of them, China, already increasingly viewed as an adversary, is crucial when it comes to REEs, and the Congo, one of the most conflict-plagued nations on the planet, is the leading producer of cobalt. So don’t for a second imagine that the transition to a renewable-energy future will either be easy or conflict-free.
The Crunch to Come
Faced with the prospect of inadequate or hard-to-access supplies of such critical materials, energy strategists are already calling for major efforts to develop new sources in as many locations as possible. “Today’s supply and investment plans for many critical minerals fall well short of what is needed to support an accelerated deployment of solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicles,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency. “These hazards are real, but they are surmountable. The response from policymakers and companies will determine whether critical minerals remain a vital enabler for clean energy transitions or become a bottleneck in the process.”
As Birol and his associates at the IEA have made all too clear, however, surmounting the obstacles to increased mineral production will be anything but easy. To begin with, launching new mining ventures can be extraordinarily expensive and entail numerous risks. Mining firms may be willing to invest billions of dollars in a country like Australia, where the legal framework is welcoming and where they can expect protection against future expropriation or war, but many promising ore sources lie in countries like the DRC, Myanmar, Peru, and Russia where such conditions hardly apply. For example, the current turmoil in Myanmar, a major producer of certain rare-earth elements, has already led to worries about their future availability and sparked a rise in prices.
Declining ore quality is also a concern. When it comes to mineral sites, this planet has been thoroughly scavenged for them, sometimes since the early Bronze Age, and many of the best deposits have long since been discovered and exploited. “In recent years, ore quality has continued to fall across a range of commodities,” the IEA noted in its report on critical minerals and green technology. “For example, the average copper ore grade in Chile declined by 30% over the past 15 years. Extracting metal content from lower-grade ores requires more energy, exerting upward pressure on production costs, greenhouse gas emissions, and waste volumes.”
In addition, extracting minerals from underground rock formations often entails the use of acids and other toxic substances and typically requires vast amounts of water, which are contaminated after use. This has become ever more of a problem since the enactment of environmental-protection legislation and the mobilization of local communities. In many parts of the world, as in Nevada when it comes to lithium, new mining and ore-processing efforts are going to encounter increasingly fierce local opposition. When, for example, the Lynas Corporation, an Australian firm, sought to evade Australia’s environmental laws by shipping ores from its Mount Weld rare-earths mine to Malaysia for processing, local activists there mounted a protracted campaign to prevent it from doing so.
For Washington, perhaps no problem is more challenging, when it comes to the availability of critical materials for a green revolution, than this country’s deteriorating relationship with Beijing. After all, China currently provides 70% of the world’s rare-earth supplies and harbors significant deposits of other key minerals as well. No less significant, that country is responsible for the refining and processing of many key materials mined elsewhere. In fact, when it comes to mineral processing, the figures are astonishing. China may not produce significant amounts of cobalt or nickel, but it does account for approximately 65% of the world’s processed cobalt and 35% of its processed nickel. And while China produces 11% of the world’s lithium, it’s responsible for nearly 60% of processed lithium. When it comes to rare-earth elements, however, China is dominant in a staggering way. Not only does it provide 60% of the world’s raw materials, but nearly 90% of processed REEs.
To put the matter simply, there is no way the United States or other countries can undertake a massive transition from fossil fuels to a renewables-based economy without engaging economically with China. Undoubtedly, efforts will be made to reduce the degree of that reliance, but there’s no realistic prospect of eliminating dependence on China for rare earths, lithium, and other key materials in the foreseeable future. If, in other words, the U.S. were to move from a modestly Cold-War-like stance toward Beijing to an even more hostile one, and if it were to engage in further Trumpian-style attempts to “decouple” its economy from that of the People’s Republic, as advocated by many “China hawks” in Congress, there’s no question about it: the Biden administration would have to abandon its plans for a green-energy future.
It’s possible, of course, to imagine a future in which nations begin fighting over the world’s supplies of critical minerals, just as they once fought over oil. At the same time, it’s perfectly possible to conceive of a world in which countries like ours simply abandoned their plans for a green-energy future for lack of adequate raw materials and reverted to the oil wars of the past. On an already overheating planet, however, that would lead to a civilizational fate worse than death.
In truth, there’s little choice but for Washington and Beijing to collaborate with each other and so many other countries in accelerating the green energy transition by establishing new mines and processing facilities for critical minerals, developing substitutes for materials in short supply, improving mining techniques to reduce environmental hazards, and dramatically increasing the recycling of vital minerals from discarded batteries and other products. Any alternative is guaranteed to prove a disaster of the first order — or beyond.
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Michael T. Klare, a TomDispatch regular, is the five-college professor emeritus of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and a senior visiting fellow at the Arms Control Association. He is the author of 15 books, the latest of which is All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon’s Perspective on Climate Change. He is a founder of the Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy.

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