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FOCUS: Unanswered Questions in the Mueller Report Point to a Sprawling Russian Spy Game Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=47190"><span class="small">James Risen, The Intercept</span></a>   
Sunday, 28 April 2019 10:41

Risen writes: "Throughout Robert Mueller's two-year investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, Paul Manafort had a target on his back."

Paul Manafort. (photo: Getty Images)
Paul Manafort. (photo: Getty Images)


Unanswered Questions in the Mueller Report Point to a Sprawling Russian Spy Game

By James Risen, The Intercept

28 April 19

 

hroughout Robert Mueller’s two-year investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, Paul Manafort had a target on his back. The former Trump campaign chair’s longstanding ties to powerful figures in Ukraine and Russia triggered intense scrutiny from Mueller, as he and his fellow prosecutors sought to determine whether President Donald Trump or the people around him conspired with Moscow to win the presidency.

Mueller saw Manafort as a central figure in his investigation and went after him repeatedly and aggressively; as a result, Manafort ultimately faced a variety of charges in federal courts in Virginia and Washington, D.C. Mueller offered Manafort a plea deal in exchange for Manafort telling the special counsel what he knew about Trump and Russia. But Mueller eventually grew angry because Manafort continued to lie to him. A federal judge determined that Manafort had violated his plea agreement, in part by lying about his communications with a longtime Manafort employee who the FBI assessed had ties to Russian intelligence. Manafort is now in prison.

In the end, Mueller’s investigators could not find evidence that Manafort coordinated his actions with the sophisticated Russian cybercampaign to help Trump win. But the report makes clear that there were many instances in which Mueller wasn’t able to get to the bottom of things and often couldn’t determine the whole story behind the Trump-Russia contacts.

In fact, the report documents a series of strange and still unexplained contacts between the Trump crowd and Russia. It is filled with unresolved mysteries.

One reason Mueller wasn’t able to answer many of the questions surrounding those contacts was that he had to navigate a blizzard of lies. “The investigation established that several individuals affiliated with the Trump campaign lied to [the Mueller team], and to Congress, about their interactions with Russian-affiliated individuals and related matters,” the report states. “Those lies materially impaired the investigation of Russian election interference.”

Some in the Trump circle, including Manafort and former national security adviser Michael Flynn, faced criminal charges for their falsehoods. In other cases, Mueller was blocked by the refusal of key figures to talk, while other potential witnesses were not credible or were out of reach overseas.

When it came to the infamous June 9, 2016 meeting at Trump Tower in New York between key members of the Trump circle and a Russian lawyer, for example, Mueller was unable to question the two most important participants. The president’s oldest son, Donald Trump Jr., refused to be interviewed by Mueller, while Natalia Veselnitskaya, the Russian lawyer, was in Russia and couldn’t be questioned. The report says that Mueller considered bringing campaign finance charges against some in the Trump circle who participated in the meeting but decided not to.

And what are we to make of the brief but mysterious interactions during the campaign between George Papadopoulos, a young Trump foreign policy adviser, and Sergei Millian, an American who was born in Belarus? Among other contacts with Papadopoulos, Millian sent him a Facebook message in August 2016 promising to “share with you a disruptive technology that might be instrumental in your political work for the campaign.”

The report notes that Mueller’s team was “not fully able to explore the contact because the individual at issue, Sergei Millian, remained out of the country since the inception of our investigation and declined to meet with members of [Mueller’s team] despite our repeated efforts to obtain an interview.”  (This isn’t the first time Millian’s name has surfaced in connection with the Trump-Russia case. During the campaign, Millian reportedly told an associate that Trump had longstanding ties to Russia and that the Russians were passing on damaging information about Hillary Clinton. Millian’s assertions ended up as secondhand information in the Steele dossier, an opposition research report on possible links between the Trump campaign and Russia compiled by a former British intelligence officer in 2016.)

In yet another instance, Mueller investigated whether anyone around Trump coordinated with WikiLeaks to release stolen emails from Clinton campaign chair John Podesta on October 7, 2016, about an hour after the Washington Post reported on an “Access Hollywood” audiotape of Trump using crude language about women. The release of the emails seemed designed to distract attention from the “Access Hollywood” tape, which had the makings of a major political scandal.

Jerome Corsi, a conservative author with close ties to Trump ally Roger Stone, told Mueller that he believed his actions prompted the quick WikiLeaks release, but Mueller’s report says investigators couldn’t corroborate Corsi’s story. The report doesn’t offer any other explanation for the release of the Podesta emails on what turned out to be one of the most important days of the 2016 campaign.

***

Mueller’s frustration with Manafort’s lies reflects a major theme in the report’s account of the contacts between people around Trump and figures with ties to Russia. Although Mueller’s investigation “identified numerous links between individuals with ties to the Russian government and individuals associated with the Trump campaign, the evidence was not sufficient to support criminal charges,” the report states. It adds that “the evidence was not sufficient to charge that any member of the Trump campaign conspired with representatives of the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 election.”

It’s important to remember that as special counsel, Mueller was trying to answer very narrow questions about whether contacts between the Trump circle and Russia were directly related to the Russian cybercampaign against the Democratic Party, and whether those actions violated federal law.

But that narrow scope may have obscured the possibility that the Russians were seeking to gain influence in the United States in many different ways at the same time. The reality is that every great power, including the United States and Russia, conducts many different intelligence operations simultaneously against its adversaries. The cyberoffensive against the Democratic Party, launched by the GRU, Russian military intelligence, could have been going on separately from a more diffuse Russian effort to gather intelligence and probe for influence in Washington.

The report makes clear that Manafort remained a frustrating enigma to Mueller. It’s not hard to read between the lines and glean that Mueller, the straight-arrow prosecutor, former FBI director, and former Marine, was revulsed by the international political consultant’s corrupt behavior and found it difficult to comprehend his willingness to work for Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs. In this regard, Manafort was a sort of object of fascination for Mueller.

Mueller had good reason to focus on Manafort. Before he joined the Trump campaign, Manafort made millions working for Oleg Deripaska, a Russian oligarch with extensive international aluminum and power holdings and close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Rick Gates, Manafort’s former deputy, who pleaded guilty to conspiracy and lying to the FBI and agreed to cooperate with the special counsel’s office, explained that Deripaska used Manafort to install friendly political officials in countries where Deripaska had business interests.

Manafort’s work for Deripaska began in about 2005 and ultimately led him to Rinat Akhmetov, a Ukrainian oligarch who brought Manafort in as a political consultant in Ukraine for the pro-Russian Party of Regions. Manafort helped Viktor Yanukovych, the Party of Regions candidate, win the presidency in 2010. Manafort became a close adviser to Yanukovych until he was forced to flee to Russia in 2014 in the wake of the Maidan Revolution in Kiev that ousted his government.

With Yanukovych’s ouster, Manafort lost his meal ticket in Ukraine. By then, his relations with Deripaska had also turned bitter. Deripaska had invested in a fund created by Manafort that had failed, and he wanted his money back.

By the time Manafort joined the Trump team, he was eager to make peace with Deripaska. The Mueller report says that right after joining the campaign, Manafort asked Gates, who had accompanied him into Trump’s orbit, to prepare memos for Deripaska, Akhmetov, and two other Ukrainian oligarchs about Manafort’s new post with Trump and his willingness to work on Ukrainian politics in the future.

During this period, Konstantin Kilimnik, a Russian national and longtime Manafort employee, served as an intermediary between Manafort, Deripaska, and Yanukovych. The FBI has concluded that Kilimnik has ties to Russian intelligence; indeed, Kilimnik’s connection to Deripaska was through a Deripaska deputy who had previously served in the defense attaché’s office in the Russian embassy in Washington. While it is not known whether the Deripaska deputy, Victor Boyarkin, has an intelligence background, a position in an embassy defense attaché’s office is commonly used as cover for intelligence officers.

Manafort met with Kilimnik twice in the United States during the campaign. In one meeting, Manafort discussed with Kilimnik the political situation in the battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota, according to the report.

Manafort also arranged for Gates to send Kilimnik updates on the Trump campaign, including internal polling data, which he asked Kilimnik to pass on to Deripaska. Manafort also communicated with Kilimnik about pro-Russian peace plans for Ukraine at least four times during and after the campaign.

Those frequent communications between Manafort and prominent people from Ukraine and Russia in the midst of the campaign certainly raised Mueller’s suspicions. But Mueller ultimately couldn’t find evidence of a connection between Manafort’s decision to give polling data to Kilimnik and the Russian cyberoffensive in the 2016 election. The special counsel and his team “could not reliably determine Manafort’s purpose in sharing internal polling data with Kilimnik during the campaign period,” the report notes, adding that “because of questions about Manafort’s credibility and our limited ability to gather evidence on what happened to the polling data after it was sent to Kilimnik, [Mueller’s team] could not assess what Kilimnik [or others with whom he may have shared it] did with it.”

Mueller’s investigators did not find evidence that Manafort passed along information about the Ukrainian peace plan he discussed with Kilimnik to Trump or anyone else in the campaign, or, later, to members of the Trump administration. But Mueller also notes that “while Manafort denied that he spoke to members of the Trump campaign or the new Administration about the peace plan, he lied to the [special counsel’s] office and the grand jury about the peace plan and his meetings with Kilmnik, and his unreliability on this subject was among the reasons that [the judge in his case] found that he breached his cooperation agreement.”

***

While the evidence Mueller gathered about Manafort may not have been sufficient to bring criminal charges, it does fit the pattern of information that might typically emerge in a counterintelligence investigation, which is very different from a criminal inquiry.

The Mueller report documents Manafort’s deep connections with Russians and Ukrainians, and shows that he shared internal campaign data with them in the hopes of winning their favor and “monetizing” his work with Trump. But the report also suggests that as Trump’s campaign chair, Manafort opened a secret backchannel with Russia for his own selfish reasons that had nothing to do with Russia’s efforts to help Trump win the election.

In one conversation with Mueller’s team, Manafort may have given the special counsel a candid answer about what was going on in his case: He made it clear that while Deripaska may not have played any role in the GRU’s cybercampaign, the oligarch still saw Manafort as a valuable long-term asset.

If Trump won, “Deripaska would want to use Manafort to advance whatever interests Deripaska had in the United States and elsewhere,” Manafort told Mueller. And Deripaska, remember, was very close to Putin.

In court documents, the Justice Department painted a similar picture of Maria Butina, the young Russian woman who has pleaded guilty to conspiring to act as an agent of the Russian Federation. (Butina was sentenced on Friday to 18 months in prison. After she completes her sentence, she will be deported.)

Butina was “not a spy in the traditional sense,” the Justice Department now says. Yet she was still part of a “deliberate intelligence operation by the Russian Federation,” according to an affidavit from a former high-level FBI counterintelligence official. She was in the United States to “spot and assess” Americans who might be susceptible to recruitment as foreign intelligence assets. In addition, she sought to establish a backchannel of communication to bypass formal diplomatic channels between Moscow and Washington.

Manafort and Butina may have been on two sides of a complex new kind of spy game that few outsiders understand.

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Is Joe Biden 'Electable' or Not? Thank God, Nobody Seems to Know Print
Sunday, 28 April 2019 08:33

Taibbi writes: "Maybe Joe Biden has been in politics too long. When he finally announced his run this week, he found he'd outlived the campaign cliché that once would have carried him to the White House: 'electability.'"

Former Vice President Joe Biden leaves after addressing striking workers at the Stop and Shop in the Dorchester neighborhood of Boston on April 18, 2019. (photo: Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe/Getty Images)
Former Vice President Joe Biden leaves after addressing striking workers at the Stop and Shop in the Dorchester neighborhood of Boston on April 18, 2019. (photo: Jonathan Wiggs/The Boston Globe/Getty Images)


ALSO SEE: The Health Care Industry Is Betting on
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Is Joe Biden 'Electable' or Not? Thank God, Nobody Seems to Know

By Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone

28 April 19


Reactions to the former vice president joining the 2020 race prove nobody knows what electability means anymore

aybe Joe Biden has been in politics too long. When he finally announced his run this week, he found he’d outlived the campaign cliché that once would have carried him to the White House: “electability.”

After his launch, it seemed like the press didn’t know whether to describe Biden as “electable” or not. There was widespread pundit paralysis about the very meaning of the word, to the point where it’s no longer clear whether the term has positive or negative connotations.

Joe Biden checks the electability box for whom?” asked Vanessa Williams of the Washington Post. Joe Biden may be less electable than he looks,” added New York. “We don’t know for sure what makes a candidate electable,” added FiveThirtyEight.com.

The premise of a lot of these stories is that Biden, as a white male politician and longtime political insider, looks like an outdated idea of “electability.” Multiple outlets described it as a “coded” term, worrying that calling Biden or another white male candidate like Pete Buttigieg “electable” might be a “capitulation to American voters’ worst biases,” as Slate put it.

If this is the end of “electability,” it won’t be a moment too soon. Since I started covering presidential campaigns in the 2004 race, I’ve loathed the term. That year, John Kerry was chosen as the nominee in large part because, as Matt Bai put it in the New York Times, electability became the issue itself” in the Democratic primary.

The 2003-2004 campaign press pounded home to Democratic voters that Kerry was the most “electable” candidate, and part of that calculus surely was that he was white and male. Additionally he had a military background, and boasted an incoherent enough position on the Iraq war that party leaders thought he’d be immune to “soft on defense” charges. We saw how that turned out.

I don’t think “electability” is being retired this year just because it has outdated race and gender connotations. It also speaks to a level of chaos and indecision across the top levels of the political establishment.

Once upon a time, “electability” was the most transparent code word in campaign reporting. People thought it meant all sorts of things, but really it just meant the inside choice, i.e. the candidate who would raise the most money.

If you were “electable,” you were probably also the winner of the so-called “invisible primary,” the smoke-filled-room/pre-primary choosing process described in the academic study “The Party Decides” in 2008.

The “invisible primary” supposedly wrapped up about two years out from Election Day, by which time core constituent groups and donors decided upon a desired nominee. Money and endorsements flowed from there. Once these decisions had been made, the campaign press usually followed, embracing whomever political insiders told them was the “real” candidate.

The odious part was not just that the term tended to favor politicians who looked a certain way (“looks presidential” and “Kennedyesque” were other code words for “tall white guy”). It was also used to nudge voters away from candidates who had non-traditional policy stances or were different in any way.

Any candidate with the slightest anti-war or anti-corporate tendencies, or who was too unyielding on labor issues, tended for years to have the yoke of “unelectability” hung on them sooner or later.

Howard Dean in 2003 was an early party favorite whose anti-war stance on Iraq and reliance on small, web-based donations quickly earned him the “not electable” tab. Dennis Kucinich was a level below “unelectable,” i.e. “fringe.” Bernie Sanders earned the tab repeatedly in 2016. Even earlier this year, Elizabeth Warren was pelted with op-eds slamming her as a candidate withelectabilityproblems.

At the coverage level, this is a gross process. Reporters batter candidates who don’t have giant war chests full of cash with questions. They’ll ask, “If you can’t win, why are you running? Are you trying to send a message to the real contender? Are you hoping to affect the platform? Aren’t you too liberal to win in the general? Are you positioning yourself for four years from now?” And so on.

Voters would pick up on this framing and rank candidates in their minds. For a candidate to overcome this, he or she would have to get past this unconscious sorting process.

In 2008, for instance, the campaign season began with Hillary Clinton owning such a substantial lead that she was routinely described as the “inevitable” candidate. As Barack Obama started to rise in the polls and raise unexpectedly large sums of money, Democratic aides began to push new arguments, telling reporters Obama was a lightweight who in a general election would be considered too liberal and couldn’t possibly win with Middle America because – well, that was unspoken, for a while.

As the race tightened, the Clinton campaign began to be more and more explicit, with Hillary finally saying out loud that Obama was struggling because his “support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again.”

Obama in 2008 exposed electability as a bit of a con game. Voters, it turned out, didn’t like to be treated like sled dogs, told to mush on command. They could be more independent and more open-minded than politicians or pundits asserted. Obama won a lot of votes in places experts insisted he could not. In 2008, he outperformed both John Kerry and Al Gore overall among white voters (although those gains were almost all in the north and west).

“Electability” has had poor results on both sides of the aisle. In 2012, Republican voters were told Mitt Romney would be more electable against Barack Obama. He wasn’t. Four years later, electability was at the core of Hillary Clinton’s argument in 2016, and that was disaster as well.

Heading into 2020, it’s clear neither the press nor the Democratic Party leadership has any idea what electability means on any level anymore. There’s obviously a ton of confusion as to how to parse the results of 2016.

Does it mean a candidate with more progressive politics would be more electable against Trump? Does it mean, as Slate put it, that some Democrats will be “too spooked—or too sexist—to nominate a woman again”? Or is Eugene Robinson of the Washington Post right, and Biden, who does check the traditional boxes of electability as pundits used to define the term, is the better choice to accomplish the most important task, beating Trump?

All this makes my head hurt. Maybe for once we should just ignore the whole concept of electability, and give up trying to tell voters which horse has (or should have) the best odds of winning?

We spend so much time in this business trying to tell audiences whom to be excited about. As 2008 showed, it seems to work fine when the news goes the other way, i.e. when voters tell us who they like and think has broad appeal. This is a perfect opportunity for campaign press to take the thumb off the scale, stick to telling voters what the candidates stand for, and let them sort it out. With so many candidates in the field, is there even time to do it any other way?

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Bernie Sanders Is the Most Feminist 2020 Candidate, as Far as I'm Concerned Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=30317"><span class="small">Arwa Mahdawi, Guardian UK</span></a>   
Saturday, 27 April 2019 12:29

Mahdawi writes: "We heard that Bernie was sexist ad infinitum during the 2016 primaries; Gloria Steinem even accused young female Sanders supporters of only supporting him over Hillary Clinton because 'the boys are with Bernie.' Which was an incredibly bizarre thing for a feminist to say."

Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally at the University of Washington, in Seattle. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)
Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally at the University of Washington, in Seattle. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)


Bernie Sanders Is the Most Feminist 2020 Candidate, as Far as I'm Concerned

By Arwa Mahdawi, Guardian UK

27 April 19


Sanders is far from perfect, but it is ridiculous to claim that he is beloved purely by arrogant white bros

f you support Bernie Sanders, then you are probably an entitled young white guy. A Bernie bro. Someone who purports to support progressive ideas, but is really a raging misogynist who could never vote for a woman. We heard this message ad infinitum during the 2016 primaries; Gloria Steinem even accused young female Sanders supporters of only supporting him over Hillary Clinton because “the boys are with Bernie”. Which was an incredibly bizarre thing for a feminist to say.

Now that the 2020 primaries have kicked off, we are being told once again that Sanders is the brocialist choice, and that he doesn’t connect with women, particularly non-white women. This isn’t entirely inaccurate – just look at Sanders’ recent performance at She the People, a presidential forum for women of colour. When asked what he would do to combat white supremacist violence as president, Sanders reminded everyone he was at the March on Washington with Dr Martin Luther King in 1963. This non-answer justifiably drew loud boos and groans. Sanders didn’t help his cause when, visibly annoyed, he then wagged his finger at the audience in a condescending manner.

Sanders is far from a perfect candidate. He could do with being less arrogant. He could do with listening to communities of colour more. He could do with realizing that you need to talk about race as well as class. Nevertheless, it is ridiculous to claim that he doesn’t connect with women of colour, and that he is beloved purely by arrogant white bros. A recent poll from Morning Consult found that Sanders leads all the other candidates, save Joe Biden, when it comes to support from black voters and female voters. The only demographic that Sanders really doesn’t connect with, according to the Morning Consult poll, is Democrats who make more than $100,000 per year. Which, one imagines, overlaps with the demographic who are constantly smearing Sanders by advancing the narrative that his base consists of sexist morons.

Here’s the thing: universal healthcare is a feminist issue. Widening access to education is a feminist issue. A foreign policy that doesn’t involve constantly bombing other countries is a feminist issue. Refusing to cozy up to Saudi Arabia is a feminist issue. Calling out Israel for its treatment of Palestinians is a feminist issue. As far as I’m concerned, Sanders is the most feminist candidate in the race. Nevertheless, as the primaries progress, I’m sure we’re going to hear a lot more about how he just doesn’t get women.

Who gives a ship?

The Scottish Maritime Museum has decided to adopt gender neutral signage for ships, which have traditionally been referred to as “she”. This has made some people extremely angry indeed. “Ships are ‘she’, not ‘it’ – and we will erode our history if we bow to the PC brigade on this,” Adm Lord West raged in the Telegraph. West explained: “To us, much of the time, a ship is best understood as being like a mother, holding us and keeping us safe from storms … There’s a tongue-in-cheek suggestion that she’s often like a lover, too.” Freud would have had a field day.

Glenda Jackson, a queen, on King Lear

I love this interview with Glenda Jackson, who is currently playing King Lear on Broadway; it touches on everything from sexism to Thatcherism to how gender boundaries blur with age . It also features an amusing excerpt from a 1976 interview where she was asked if she was “waving the flag for women’s lib”. Jackson replied: “Waving it? I mean, I’ll poke it in your eye

The black feminists who saw the alt-right threat coming

Do have a read of this really interesting Slate piece on black feminists who, in 2016, launched a campaign against Twitter trolls pretending to be women of colour. It’s a great look at how to fight misinformation campaigns.

US sabotages UN resolution on sexual health

A diluted version of a United Nations resolution on combatting rape as a weapon of war was passed by the security council on Tuesday. The US had threatened to veto the resolution unless references to sexual and reproductive health were removed, arguing that that language implied support for abortion. The language was then watered down; a stark reminder that the Trump administration isn’t just waging war against women’s rights in America, but around the world.

Please don’t put garlic up your vagina

Thanks to the Goop-ification of the world, this is apparently a real thing that people are doing, in the hope that it cures their yeast infection. Dr Jen Gunter, an influential ob-gyn, recently published a long Twitter thread breaking down exactly why it is a terrible idea. Just in case you needed to be reminded.

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What Bernie Sanders and His Supporters Can Learn From Salvador Allende Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=50019"><span class="small">Ben Beckett, Jacobin</span></a>   
Saturday, 27 April 2019 12:29

Beckett writes: "Since 2016, the idea of socialism as a viable and desirable goal has been on the agenda in American politics for the first time in a century. Until very recently, living American socialists had no experience tackling the question of how the working-class movement might wield state power."

Salvador Allende. (photo: Gamba)
Salvador Allende. (photo: Gamba)


What Bernie Sanders and His Supporters Can Learn From Salvador Allende

By Ben Beckett, Jacobin

27 April 19


As Bernie Sanders’s campaign gets underway, questions of how socialists should relate to voters and the state have become more pressing. Few historical figures provide more insight on this front than democratic socialist Salvador Allende’s government in Chile.

ince 2016, the idea of socialism as a viable and desirable goal has been on the agenda in American politics for the first time in a century. Until very recently, living American socialists had no experience tackling the question of how the working-class movement might wield state power. For that matter, socialists today lack firsthand experience with any mass working-class movement at all

Earlier generations of American socialists had a bigger impact on the labor movement than they did on elections; even during American socialism’s nadir in the 1970s, ’80s, and ’90s, small socialist groups made important and outsized contributions to labor, antiwar, and social movement organizing. But until very recently, they were swimming against the tide of history.

This history means socialists in the United States need to look elsewhere for insights into how to wield the power of the democratic capitalist state that we now could enter, via Sanders. Perhaps the most useful case study: Salvador Allende’s presidency in Chile from 1970–73.

Despite its ultimate failure at the hands of a US-backed coup — arguably made easier by Allende’s own mistakes — Allende enacted a political revolution in Chile. Among the historical examples we have, it also came closest to developing a successful democratic socialist revolution.

Allende was elected in 1970 as a candidate of the Popular Unity coalition. Popular Unity consisted of the Communist Party, the Socialist Party, and smaller formations of non-Marxist socialists and syndicalists. In his first speech as president to Chile’s congress, he promised the “progressive establishment of a new structure of power, founded on the will of the majority” and a

transition towards socialism . . . characterized by the selective overcoming of the present system. This will be achieved by destroying or abandoning its negative and oppressive features and by strengthening and broadening its positive features.

In other words, because Chile had a long history of capitalist democracy with comparatively free and fair elections and a progressively expanding electorate, Popular Unity’s strategy was to claim a democratic mandate to use the state to transfer wealth and power from the capitalist class to the working class.

In the Bloody Labyrinth

But even with a Marxist as head of state, Chilean and foreign capitalists still controlled the economy and continued to hold a great amount of influence over the state, particularly the military. Allende spent much of his time in office in a balancing act, trying to build worker power and self-confidence while not provoking capitalists into attacking to a degree the Chilean working class and his government could not yet withstand. Ultimately, he was unsuccessful.

Allende continually reassured the public that the revolution — which he defined as “the transfer of power from a minority class to a majority class” — would be conducted through legal, financial, and parliamentary channels. Bernie Sanders’s call for a “political revolution” echoes this strategy.

Allende’s critics on the Chilean left argued that his government gave capitalists and the Right too much time and leeway to sabotage his policies, to the extent that it sometimes tamped down worker self-organization when workers took more aggressive action against capitalists than the government did.

In an essential — and largely supportive — essay written after the coup, Ralph Miliband summed up this view, writing that Allende’s government was

least able or willing to tackle the most difficult problem, that presented by the military. Instead, it appears to have sought to buy the latter’s support and goodwill by conciliation and concessions, right up to the time of the coup, notwithstanding the ever-growing evidence of the military’s hostility.

In the same essay, Miliband quotes the leader of the Chilean Socialist Party as saying, of Allende, “the best way of precipitating a confrontation [with capitalists and reactionaries] and to make it even more bloody is to turn one’s back upon it.”

Allende’s defenders, and Allende himself, countered that he adopted a strategy suitable to the political culture in which he operated, and that there was no guarantee that faster or more aggressive action would have garnered majority support. But it would — in Allende’s mind — have led inevitably to civil war.

There is no clear-cut answer to this dilemma, except perhaps that the Left and any working-class government need to have a clearer sense of what the working class is willing to fight for and how aggressively it is willing to fight, in order to calibrate the state’s actions accordingly.

For that reason, it is essential for the Left to develop a well-organized political base allied with but independent of working-class forces within the state. It is critical that these connections based on trust and shared struggle be forged before moments of crisis. As French journalist Régis Debray put it, referring to the socialist government and Chilean capitalists, “the path from polite hatred to open hostilities is shorter than either side had thought.”

We shouldn’t expect slaughter or a coup as a result of Sanders winning election. Then again, in 2016 few Americans expected the government to construct concentration camps under highway bridges or force toddlers to represent themselves in court without their parents.

Unlike Allende, Sanders does not publicly call for a break with capitalism, and he shows little interest in fundamentally altering the nature of the state he seeks to lead. But we should be prepared for capitalists and the Right to oppose Sanders at every turn even more aggressively than they opposed Obama or other Democrats. Unlike them, Sanders really is implacably opposed to their power and privileges, and dead set on undermining them.

It’s not hard to imagine a scenario in which a right-wing judiciary rules against every action Sanders takes, Republicans and conservative Democrats refuse to confirm any of his appointees or pass a budget, corporations rush to blame job cuts or the burst of the currently inflating economic bubble on Sanders’s policies, and entrenched bureaucrats in the defense and law enforcement establishment seek to undermine any reforms he attempts. Meanwhile, the press accelerates the red-baiting and other extreme distortions that have led to progressive politicians receiving hundreds of death threats — threats that recent history has shown are hardly empty.

Not Me, Us

Like in Chile, Sanders’s ultimate success or failure in the face of these challenges will rest on the extent to which the working class mobilizes to support his positions. In a point Sanders would echo at the beginning of his 2020 campaign, Allende warned against overemphasizing himself as the essential agent of change in an interview with Régis Debray:

The notion that history is based on personalities [i.e. himself] is a common delusion among the bourgeois class. . . . The social process is not going to disappear because one of its leaders disappears. It may be delayed or prolonged, but in the long run, it can’t be stopped.

This is an especially important point for the contemporary left to keep in mind. Sanders was essentially a lone operator for decades; in many ways his current popularity is due to the rest of the country catching up to him rather than any new organizing initiative on his part. The growth of organizations like Our Revolution and the Democratic Socialists of America did not cause but rather followed Sander’s rise in popularity.

As Meagan Day put it recently,

In a different, perhaps more ideal scenario, an openly socialist presidential candidacy would be the culmination of an intensive decades-long political project. The candidate would rise organically through the ranks of a dynamic and powerful organized Left. That Left would consist of, among other things, strong left-wing unions, innumerable community groups knitted into tight coalitions, and a mass political party with a democratic membership structure and credible means of candidate discipline. The candidate would emerge as the leader of a substantial movement made up of rock-solid working-class institutions.

But that’s not how things have played out.

Therefore there is a special danger in putting too much faith in Sanders as an individual on the one hand, and on the other dismissing him due to his real shortcomings to the extent we miss the political possibilities his campaign has created.

Because it is currently too weak to raise a candidate from within a grassroots movement, the Left is now in the process of jury-rigging a (hopefully) enduring movement around a candidate. That doesn’t mean the Left should decline to support Sanders; in supporting him, the contemporary left is playing the hand it was dealt. Ignoring a massive national campaign that is reintroducing class rhetoric and socialism into mainstream American politics would squander an important opportunity to change the world and consign the Left to decades more of obscurity.

This is perhaps the most important lesson the contemporary American left can take from Popular Unity to apply in 2019 and 2020: Sanders cannot do it on his own.

Sanders’s role is to win the election and to govern, and we should certainly do everything we can to help him. But our role — what we on the Left alone can do — is to build enough trust with Sanders’s supporters and other members of the class such that we can organize working people to fight. We’ve already seen years of polite hatred for Bernie and his supporters. We’d better prepare for open hostilities.

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FOCUS: The Biggest Threat to Biden's Candidacy Isn't the Left, It's Biden Himself Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=6853"><span class="small">Frank Rich, New York Magazine</span></a>   
Saturday, 27 April 2019 10:59

Rich writes: "Biden isn't the only one who thinks he's the best man to defeat Trump. Democratic voters favor him in polls, and it's nearly impossible to find an article about his candidacy that doesn't reiterate the common perception that he's the 'most electable' of the 20 Democrats in the field."

Joe Biden. (photo: Sun Sentinel)
Joe Biden. (photo: Sun Sentinel)


The Biggest Threat to Biden's Candidacy Isn't the Left, It's Biden Himself

By Frank Rich, New York Magazine

27 April 19


Most weeks, New York Magazine writer-at-large Frank Rich speaks with contributor Alex Carp about the biggest stories in politics and culture. Today, Joe Biden’s campaign launch, Trump’s battle against congressional subpoenas, and the White House boycott of the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner.

fter weeks of buildup, Joe Biden has officially launched his presidential campaign with an argument that he’s the best option for stopping a Trump second term and returning things to normal. Is it a convincing pitch?

Biden isn’t the only one who thinks he’s the best man to defeat Trump. Democratic voters favor him in polls, and it’s nearly impossible to find an article about his candidacy that doesn’t reiterate the common perception that he’s the “most electable” of the 20 Democrats in the field. That assertion is then usually qualified with two not insignificant caveats: (1) Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton were thought to be the most electable candidates at this point in the 2016 election cycle, and (2) every Biden presidential campaign has gone off the rails, sometimes even before reaching the departure terminal. Still: Might Biden’s last hurrah surprise us? One can never say never to any far-fetched political scenario in the age of Trump.

Intentionally or not, Biden’s campaign launch was weirdly Trump-like in the style of its pitch: heavily nostalgic for a vanished American past, deeply invested in the candidate’s well-worn personal image, and eschewing policy specifics in favor of a broad, emotion-based call to arms. Fittingly, the musical accompaniment was orchestral and plush, the cursive onscreen font was worthy of Hallmark c. 1965, and the black-and-white images apotheosized America’s 20th-century glory days. The content, to be sure, was un-Trump. Biden doesn’t aspire to Make America Great (i.e., White) Again but to make New Deal–Great Frontier–Great Society liberalism a rallying cry again. Biden’s post-announcement itinerary was no less retro: an old-style fat-cat fundraiser, a union rally, and a cozy drop-in at The View. He has a comfort zone as predictable in its septuagenarian ways as Trump’s rounds of golf at Mar-a-Lago.

In the video, Biden embraced the anti-alt-right protestors in Charlottesville and linked them, by newsreel juxtaposition, to Martin Luther King Jr. But in 2020 it may not be enough for Democratic candidates of a certain age to wrap themselves in the classic liberal tropes of their youth. It’s telling that the day before Biden announced, Bernie Sanders was booed by some of the black and Hispanic women in a Houston audience when he talked about marching with King; Sanders’s sin was to use that hallowed past as a shield to dodge answering a question focused specifically on the white supremacists of today. In the same vein, Biden’s own King evocation was deflated only hours later by an intrusion of present-day political reality: the Times report that he had reached out by phone to Anita Hill on the eve of his launch — a mere quarter-century late — and had impressed her not with his contrition but with his enduring cluelessness about the legacy of the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings he so epically mismanaged.

For all the chatter about whether AOC Democrats in the party’s base will accept a centrist like Biden, the real threat to Biden’s viability is Biden himself. Not just his checkered past record, but his ability to adapt to present circumstances and react to them in real time. Given that he was far from fluent in the vice-presidential debate pitting him against Sarah Palin in 2008, it’s hard to imagine him besting Democratic debate opponents like Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg. The issue is not necessarily whether his views are progressive enough but whether he is culturally limber enough in a fast-moving new order. (This may also be a growing challenge for the didactic Sanders, Biden’s current runner-up in polling.) In the end, the only real premise of Biden’s candidacy, besides its comforting old-shoe avuncularity, is as narrow as he says it is: He is determined to bring down Trump. But so are his 19 primary opponents and the entire Democratic electorate. What makes Biden think he is the one man who can do it is that he sees himself as the corrective for the three states that cost Clinton the election. He presents himself as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania incarnate, as mandated by central casting — white and male and old and fluent in Rust-Belt-ese. But given his tendency to overdo, one imagines he’ll pander to Wisconsin, the state Hillary failed to visit, with such alacrity that he’ll be campaigning door-to-door in Green Bay wearing a Cheesehead hat before we know it. While I have no more idea than anyone else who will win the Democratic nomination, history is rife with generals who lose by refighting the last war.

Since the release of the Mueller report, Trump has vowed to fight “all” subpoenas for administration officials to testify in front of Congress, a move that hasn’t been seen since the days of Nixon.  Is he helping or hurting his case?

There is no case. Trump is not on impeachment trial in the Senate, and he has not been indicted in a court of law. As his ever more diarrheic Twitter dumps tell us, he can’t even decide whether the Mueller report is an exoneration or a hatchet job. Having gotten away with obstructing justice — for now, anyway — he has moved on to the task of obstructing government lest any more damning evidence come to light between now and Election Day. If there is one legal concept he understands besides bankruptcy, it’s the value of wholesale nuisance litigation to stonewall adversaries (and creditors) and avoid consequences for his serial illegality. His blanket ban on any administration officials, past or present, appearing before Congress, even to testify about non-Mueller related issues (like the Census and the awarding of security clearances), will bury the remainder of his term in a tsunami of court battles masterminded for maximum distraction by his new Roy Cohn, William Barr.

Of all Trump’s defiant moves since the publication of the redacted Mueller report, the most telling may have been his declaration that “if the partisan Dems tried to impeach, I would first head to the U.S. Supreme Court.” That reaffirmed not just his ignorance of the Constitution (which gives the Supreme Court no role in impeachment), but his belief that Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh will subvert the law to protect him, just as Barr is doing. How do we know that they won’t? Now that Trump seems likely to get away with shutting down the congressional prerogative of applying checks and balances to the chief executive, it only makes sense that the Court would be next in his sights. Nothing is impossible as long as the Republican Party in general, and its Vichy tribunes in the Senate, have his back.

Trump also extended his feud with the press by barring administration officials from the upcoming White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner, which itself has been criticized in recent years for fostering too much coziness between political reporters and the people they cover. Is his boycott a gift to the organization?

Yes. This annual circus should have died of embarrassment in 2006, when Stephen Colbert, that year’s comic host, affronted the audience by daring not only to be rude to George W. Bush but to point out that many of the stone-faced journalists in the room had been stenographers for the administration’s false bill of goods for invading Iraq. That the thin-skinned and deferential Washington press corps of that time overwhelmingly treated Colbert’s appearance as a flop — even as it went viral with the public on YouTube — was as much evidence of the post-9/11 breakdown in the American press as all the fake news of Saddam Hussein’s WMDs that the Bush-Cheney White House planted in the Times and elsewhere. That these same reporters could be seen reveling on-camera and slobbering over celebrity invitees of far less consequence than Colbert only added to the cheesy horror of it all.

“It’s possible the White House Correspondents’ Dinner won’t even be the most glamorous thing on C-SPAN this weekend,” observed Politico. Sad! Trump’s successful crusade to usher this spectacle into oblivion — first by refusing to attend, now by refusing to allow his flunkies to attend — was undertaken for all the wrong reasons, of course. He wants to destroy, punish, and vilify a free press that is working hard to hold him to account, and he mistakenly believes that killing the dinner will help advance the goal. In fact, the reverse is true. The demise of this yearly ritual of journalistic debasement is a gift to the press and arguably one of the very few positive achievements of the Trump presidency.

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