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Why Bernie Is Tough to Beat |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=46781"><span class="small">Sydney Ember, The New York Times</span></a>
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Saturday, 28 December 2019 09:47 |
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Ember writes: "Dawn Smallfoot put up a Bernie Sanders sign in her yard after hearing him speak in spring 2015. It's been there ever since."
Sen. Bernie Sanders. (photo: Joshua Lott/Reuters)

Why Bernie Is Tough to Beat
By Sydney Ember, The New York Times
28 December 19
His supporters are loyal, and in Iowa they don’t really have eyes for anyone else.
awn Smallfoot put up a Bernie Sanders sign in her yard after hearing him speak in spring 2015. It’s been there ever since.
“Why take it down?” she said on a recent Monday evening, during a break from making calls to potential Sanders supporters. “I was waiting for his return.”
His campaign is counting on that kind of devotion.
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3 Ways the 2020 Election Could Go Very Wrong |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=52386"><span class="small">Cameron Joseph, VICE</span></a>
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Friday, 27 December 2019 14:06 |
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Joseph writes: "Welcome to 2020, which could be President Trump's final full year in office. But those counting down to election day should probably stop now, because there's a real chance we won't know who won until well after Nov. 3."
(photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)

3 Ways the 2020 Election Could Go Very Wrong
By Cameron Joseph, VICE
27 December 19
In a coin flip election there's a very real chance we won't know if Trump is re-elected for weeks or even months after Nov. 3.
elcome to 2020, which could be President Trump’s final full year in office. But those counting down to election day should probably stop now, because there’s a real chance we won’t know who won until well after Nov. 3.
A close election, possible recounts, and unusual voting laws in key states could very easily delay the results of the election and send the fight to the courts.
None of these events, taken alone, is super-likely to happen. But in what’s looking like a coin-flip election, any drama in the deciding states could force America to wait days, weeks, and potentially even months before we know who will occupy the White House for the next four years.
This, to put it mildly, would suck — both for campaign obsessives and for the nation as a whole.
Here are three plausible scenarios that could put the 2020 presidential election into overtime.
Raising Arizona
Arizona is looking like a serious swing state for the first time in decades, and could prove to be the tipping-point state in the 2020 election. That’s not good news for those hoping for a quick call on election night.
The state relies heavily on mail-in voting, and as a result is notoriously slow at counting its ballots. It often takes days, and sometimes weeks, to find out who’s won close elections in Arizona.
“Because of the way we count our ballots, no matter what I think it’s going to go past Election Day,” said Garrett Archer, an Arizona elections expert who currently works at ABC’s Phoenix affiliate. “We could go a week or longer.”
That happened just last election. Republican Martha McSally led Democrat Kyrsten Sinema on election night in a key Senate race. But Sinema pulled ahead two days later as more mail ballots were counted. It took six full days for the Associated Press to declare Sinema the victor.
And that race wasn’t even a particularly close: Sinema ended up winning by more than 50,000 votes and by more than a two-point margin. To get a sense of how normal this is in Arizona, this was the third time McSally had to wait past election day to know her fate: Both her 2012 and 2014 House elections went well past election day.
Arizona has been one of the fastest-changing states both demographically and politically over the last decade. Trump carried it by just 3.5 percentage points last time around, and his net job approval is weaker there than in other battlegrounds like Florida and North Carolina, according to state-level surveys from Morning Consult. Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, the current Democratic front-runner, have been statistically tied in every recent Arizona poll.
If the Democratic nominee wins back Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states Trump narrowly carried where polling has looked bad for the GOP in recent months, but Trump wins every other state he carried last time around, Arizona could very well decide the next president.
Maine Squeeze
A confluence of weird election rules could leave America waiting on northern Maine to know who wins the 2020 election.
First, Maine is one of just two states that assigns electoral college votes by congressional district, along with Nebraska. Two of those districts are actually competitive and could matter a great deal in a close election: Maine’s GOP-trending second district in the state’s more rural north, and Nebraska’s Democratic-trending Omaha-based second district. Both went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016.
If Trump loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, his two weakest states that he won in 2016, but holds onto every other state he won in 2016, he and his opponent will each have 268 electoral votes, two short of the 270 needed for election.
That’s when things could get extra complicated.
Nebraska counts its votes like most places do, and even in a close race shouldn’t take too long to know its results. Trump won the suburban Omaha district by just two points in 2016 after President Obama carried it in 2008, and it could very tip Democratic this year again.
But Maine has an unusual new law that allows “ranked choice” voting. Voters pick their favorite candidate but can vote for a second choice, and if their candidate isn’t at the top two their second choice then gets counted. This is arguably good for democracy as it prevents third-party spoiler candidates from tipping an election, but it’s bad for impatient election observers.
Last election was the first time the law was in place, and it resulted in exactly this scenario. Then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Maine) led on election night, but Democrat Jared Golden pulled ahead after ranked-choice votes were tallied. It took a full week to find that out — and almost two months before Poliquin conceded after his lawsuits against the law fell short.
“If it comes down to Maine-two [the second district], assume ranked-choice voting will cause a delay in getting results. And there’s definitely a scenario where the two split states, Maine and Nebraska, could play a role in deciding 2020,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist who consults for Golden and has worked in both districts.
The Dreaded Recount
It’s happened before. It’ll happen again.
The 2020 election may simply be too close to call in a key state, leading to lawsuits, recounts and court fights that drag the election out for weeks.
That happened in 2000, when it took a Supreme Court decision to hand George W. Bush victory over Al Gore after Florida’s error-riddled election handed him the narrowest of victories.
Florida saw a bizarro replay of the 2000 recount in 2018. Both its gubernatorial and Senate races came down to the wire and triggered recounts, court fights, and ugly claims of voter fraud from Republicans — what the Miami Herald called 11 days of “organized chaos.” When all the smoke cleared, Republicans hung on to win both races.
It’s almost impossible to predict where a scenario like this might occur in 2020, but almost every election cycle has at least a handful of races go to recounts. State elections are notoriously underfunded, and the possibility of foreign meddling in the 2020 elections only increases the chances that a close election could see weeks or months of court fights.

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I Am a Union Worker, and I Want Medicare for All |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=52738"><span class="small">Ashley Payne, Jacobin</span></a>
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Friday, 27 December 2019 14:06 |
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Payne writes: "My union is in a perpetual battle for decent health care coverage."
Protesters supporting Medicare for All hold a rally outside PhRMA headquarters on April 29, 2019, in Washington, D.C. (photo: Win McNamee/Getty)

I Am a Union Worker, and I Want Medicare for All
By Ashley Payne, Jacobin
27 December 19
My union is in a perpetual battle for decent health care coverage. It’s a tactic of our employers to prevent us from striking against our terrible work conditions. If we had Medicare for All, we could demand much more at the bargaining table.
n Contra Costa County, one of the nine Bay Area counties, I work in social services. As an elected union officer, I organize and represent our unit of eligibility workers and social workers. We are literally the ones who determine who is eligible to have access to what the United States has designed to be our social safety net. I have been in this job for more than five years.
Rappers make songs about us. If you want food stamps, cash aid, or Medicaid, you come to me and my fellow union members. If you’re a mandated reporter and you call the referral line to report suspected child abuse, we are the ones who pick up the phones and investigate, removing children from dangerous homes where need-be. We are the ones who determine whether an older person is eligible for in-home support services (IHSS) so that they can stay out of a nursing home. We are also disaster workers helping out fire-ridden neighbors, just to the north of us in Sonoma County.
Our jobs are sometimes dangerous because we visit people’s homes who may not always have the resources to maintain a safe home for themselves, their family, and other occupants. We are regularly subjected to emotional, verbal, and sometimes even physical abuse and danger. Usually, many things have already gone wrong in a person’s life before they land at our doorstep requiring government assistance. All this is to say our job is stressful, and the turnover in our unit is high.
What makes our jobs even more stressful is knowing that we’re only providing partial help. Many of the benefits we offer are means-tested instead of universally provided and adequately funded. Our clients need and deserve more help than what’s on offer from the feds and the state. This means we are frequently having to explain to people why they are no longer eligible to receive assistance. We have to delicately navigate hearings and appeals over benefits that were only partially meeting their needs in the first place, and have now been distorted and tampered with by whoever is in Congress or the State Assembly and State Senate those two years.
Compounding Stresses
If serving the public weren’t hard enough already, our employer makes our jobs even more difficult. We suffer from chronic understaffing which results in high caseloads, burnout, and high staff turnover. Our benefits package is expensive compared to surrounding Bay Area counties even though we are, according to my large public-sector union, the fourth-wealthiest county in the state, in the fifth-largest economy in the world.
As Contra Costa County employees, we pay a hefty amount toward our health, dental, and vision insurances, especially in comparison to our peer agencies. Health care is the top concern heard from our four-thousand-member labor coalition of nine unions.
Social services is highly gendered work so we have a lot of women carrying dependents on their plans. For those who are married, our spousal waiver rate is very high, meaning the county’s plan is being waived in favor of their spouse’s more affordable plan. The rates vary wildly, with no single plan being obviously more affordable. We are being robbed in Contra Costa County, as are so many workers across the United States.
As part of our contract extensions are now due to expire in June 2022, last fall, our union spent vast amounts of time bargaining health care. We know this is the number one reason that drives staff and potential new hires out of the county and into neighboring agencies like City and County of San Francisco, Alameda County, and Solano County, all of which offer far more affordable health care benefits.
The wage increases that we did win aren’t felt in our paychecks, because they have been eaten up by the January 1 increases to our health care plans. Year after year, our salaries continue to fall behind our peer agencies because of our exorbitant health care costs. In fact, we are still meeting over health care. Elected union officers and our union staff meet collectively every month with our employer to rework our health care system to move to a more sustainable solution.
Among ourselves, we union members know that we are wasting our time. We spend days and nights poring over spreadsheets, studying RFPs from health insurers, surveying our members about their chief health care concerns, and trying to divine why they chose one plan over another. Over time, this becomes an obstacle to bargaining for better working conditions to improve our public services. If we had Medicare for All, we could be marching on the boss about the numerous health and safety violations in our workplace.
It feels like (I don’t feel it, I know it is!) a union-busting move for employers to be opposed to Medicare for All: they know they can tie up our limited capacity and our members’ limited attention with health care. It monopolizes our organizing, so that we no longer have the means to strike back at the mean rich people in our county who don’t want their taxes raised.
Our union members are in these jobs to help people. We could have gone somewhere else to work, but we chose to work in social services so as to help provide for and protect some of the most vulnerable people in our communities — even if that means that some of our members make so little that their own kids qualify for the same Medicaid benefits we administer.
Our employer should want their employees to stay and perform their jobs well because it helps the community. Our employer is the government — not a private company stealing value from their employees to generate profits at all costs — so we should be on the same side. Unfortunately, we’re not.

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Lemurs Are the World's Most Endangered Mammals, but Planting Trees Can Help Save Them |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=52737"><span class="small">Andrea L. Baden, The Conversation</span></a>
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Friday, 27 December 2019 14:06 |
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Baden writes: "Pressure on Madagascar's biodiversity has significantly increased over the last decade."
Ruffed Lemur (Varecia Variegata), Andasibe-Mantadia National Park, Toamasina Province, Madagascar. (photo: Getty)

Lemurs Are the World's Most Endangered Mammals, but Planting Trees Can Help Save Them
By Andrea L. Baden, The Conversation
27 December 19
he island of Madagascar off the southeastern coast of Africa hosts at least 12,000 plant species and 700 vertebrate species, 80% to 90% of which are found nowhere else on Earth.
Isolated for the last 88 million years and covering an area approximately the size of the northeastern United States, Madagascar is one of the world's hottest biodiversity hotspots. Its island-wide species diversity is striking, but its tropical forest biodiversity is truly exceptional.
Sadly, human activities are ravaging tropical forests worldwide. Habitat fragmentation, over-harvesting of wood and other forest products, over-hunting, invasive species, pollution and climate change are depleting many of these forests' native species.
Among these threats, climate change receives special attention because of its global reach. But in my research, I have found that in Madagascar it is not the dominant reason for species decline, although of course it's an important long-term factor.
As a primatologist and lemur specialist, I study how human pressures affect Madagascar's highly diverse and endemic signature species. In two recent studies, colleagues and I have found that in particular, the ruffed lemur – an important seed disperser and indicator of rainforest health – is being disproportionately impacted by human activities. Importantly, habitat loss is driving ruffed lemurs' distributions and genetic health. These findings will be key to helping save them.
The Forest Is Disappearing
Madagascar has lost nearly half (44%) of its forests within the last 60 years, largely due to slash-and-burn agriculture – known locally as "tavy" – and charcoal production. Habitat loss and fragmentation runs throughout Madagascar's history, and the rates of change are staggering.
This destruction threatens Madagascar's biodiversity and its human population. Nearly 50% of the country's remaining forest is now located within 300 feet (100 meters) of an unforested area. Deforestation, illegal hunting and collection for the pet trade are pushing many species toward the brink of extinction.
In fact, the International Union for Conservation of Nature estimates that 95% of Madagascar's lemurs are now threatened, making them the world's most endangered mammals. Pressure on Madagascar's biodiversity has significantly increased over the last decade.
Deforestation Threatens Ruffed Lemur Survival
In a newly published study, climate scientist Toni Lyn Morelli, species distribution expert Adam Smith and I worked with 19 other researchers to study how deforestation and climate change will affect two critically endangered ruffed lemur species over the next century. Using combinations of different deforestation and climate change scenarios, we estimate that suitable rainforest habitat could be reduced by as much as 93%.
If left unchecked, deforestation alone could effectively eliminate ruffed lemurs' entire eastern rainforest habitat and with it, the animals themselves. In sum, for these lemurs the effects of forest loss will outpace climate change.
But we also found that if current protected areas lose no more forest, climate change and deforestation outside of parks will reduce suitable habitat by only 62%. This means that maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas will be essential for saving Madagascar's rainforest habitats.
In a study published in November 2019, my colleagues and I showed that ruffed lemurs depend on habitat cover to survive. We investigated natural and human-caused impediments that prevent the lemurs from spreading across their range, and tracked the movement of their genes as they ranged between habitats and reproduced. This movement, known as gene flow, is important for maintaining genetic variability within populations, allowing lemurs to adapt to their ever-changing environments.
Based on this analysis, we parsed out which landscape variables – including rivers, elevation, roads, habitat quality and human population density – best explained gene flow in ruffed lemurs. We found that human activity was the best predictor of ruffed lemurs' population structure and gene flow. Deforestation alongside human communities was the most significant barrier.
Taken together, these and other lines of evidence show that deforestation poses an imminent threat to conservation on Madagascar. Based on our projections, habitat loss is a more immediate threat to lemurs than climate change, at least in the immediate future.
This matters not only for lemurs, but also for other plants and animals in the areas where lemurs are found. The same is true at the global level: More than one-third (about 36.5%) of Earth's plant species are exceedingly rare and disproportionately affected by human use of land. Regions where the most rare species live are experiencing higher levels of human impact.
Crisis Can Drive Conservation
Scientists have warned that the fate of Madagascar's rich natural heritage hangs in the balance. Results from our work suggest that strengthening protected areas and reforestation efforts will help to mitigate this devastation while environmentalists work toward long-term solutions for curbing the runaway greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change.
Already, nonprofits are working hard toward these goals. A partnership between Dr. Edward E. Louis Jr., founder of Madagascar Biodiversity Partnership and director of Conservation Genetics at Omaha's Henry Doorly Zoo, and the Arbor Day Foundation's Plant Madagascar project has replanted nearly 3 million trees throughout Kianjavato, one region identified by our study. Members of Centre ValBio's reforestation team – a nonprofit based just outside of Ranomafana National Park that facilitates our ruffed lemur research – are following suit.
At an international conference in Nairobi earlier this year, Madagascar's president, Andry Rajoelina, promised to reforest 40,000 hectares (99,000 acres) every year for the next five years – the equivalent of 75,000 football fields. This commitment, while encouraging, unfortunately lacks a coherent implementation plan.
Our projections highlight areas of habitat persistence, as well as areas where ruffed lemurs could experience near-complete habitat loss or genetic isolation in the not-so-distant future. Lemurs are an effective indicator of total non-primate community richness in Madagascar, which is another way of saying that protecting lemurs will protect biodiversity. Our results can help pinpoint where to start.

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