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FOCUS: The Important Word in 'Democratic Socialism' Is 'Democratic' Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=53457"><span class="small">Jesse Jackson, Chicago Sun Times</span></a>   
Wednesday, 26 February 2020 12:06

Excerpt: "Sen. Bernie Sanders isn't talking about making America into Cuba or Venezuela. He's talking about extending social guarantees like those offered in other advanced countries, such as Denmark and Sweden."

The Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. (photo: CommonWealthClub)
The Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. (photo: CommonWealthClub)


The Important Word in 'Democratic Socialism' Is 'Democratic'

By Jesse Jackson, The Chicago Sun Times

26 February 20

 

fter the Nevada caucuses, Bernie Sanders is now the front-runner in the Democratic presidential race. 

In South Carolina, the next primary, former Vice President Joe Biden is the favorite, buoyed by his support among African American voters. But Sanders will come into the state with real momentum, having won the popular vote in each of the first three contests. 

More importantly, in Nevada, Sanders revealed the breadth of his growing coalition: he led the field among men and women, among whites and Latinos, among union households and non-union households, among voters of all ages, except those over 65, among Democrats who called themselves liberals, moderates and conservatives.

Equally important, Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have offered Americans a new direction, not simply another candidate. Both have called for a modern version of what Franklin D. Roosevelt called the Economic Bill of Rights: Medicare for all, tuition-free public education, universal day care, a Green New Deal to generate jobs while addressing climate change. Both would tax the wealthy and corporations to make vital public investments in the common good. 

The other candidates — particularly Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg and Mike Bloomberg — have scoffed at these ideas as too radical, too bold, too costly, too ambitious. They offer mostly a continuation of the politics that existed before Donald Trump disrupted the country. The problem with that, of course, is that it doesn’t offer much hope for most Americans.

Sanders calls himself a “democratic socialist.” Warren objects to that label and says she’s for making markets work. But this is a difference in labels, not in substance. Their agendas are remarkably similar. The direction they would set is the same.

Some already have started to frighten people about the label “democratic socialist.” Trump paints it as Venezuela or Cuba. Mike Bloomberg has called Sanders (and presumably Warren’s) views on taxing wealth “communist.” Voters are going to hear a lot more of this nonsense, if Sanders continues to build momentum or Warren catches fire.

Here’s the reality. The important word in “democratic socialism” isn’t socialism, it’s democratic. Sanders isn’t talking about making America into Cuba or Venezuela; he’s talking about extending social guarantees like those offered in most other advanced industrial states, invoking Denmark or Sweden. These countries have universal health care at lower cost, paid family leave, guaranteed paid vacations, higher minimum wages, more generous public retirement programs. They also have vibrant and competitive economies, lower inequality, less poverty, and higher life expectancies. 

Sanders is seeking a popular mandate from voters to move in this direction.

When you think of democratic socialism, remember the programs that Republicans and conservatives and the corporate lobbies denounced as socialistic when they were first considered: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, environmental and consumer protection, banking regulation to protect consumers. 

The Federal Aviation Administration, which manages our nation’s civil aviation and international waters, is a state program. The Food and Drug Administration, which ensures that drugs are safe is a state program. The minimum wage, food stamps, public housing could all be considered democratic socialist programs.

Our problem has been that we have too much socialism for the rich and the powerful — subsidies for corporations, get out of jail free cards for crooked bankers, tax breaks for the rich that leaves them paying a lower tax rate than their secretaries, monopoly power for corporations that allows them to gouge customers and more. 

And we have too little shared security — democratic socialism — for working people: affordable health care, a living wage, guaranteed paid vacation and family leave, universal childcare, affordable college, public mobilization to deal with the threat of climate change.

When I ran for the presidency, I didn’t use the label, although some tried to slur me as a socialist or a communist, but I don’t think the label makes any difference. The question is one of direction, not name-calling; of program, not posturing.

And on this, Dr. Martin Luther King — often smeared as a “red” or a communist — was very clear. In 1966, he confided to his staff:

“You can’t talk about solving the economic problem of the Negro without talking about billions of dollars. You can’t talk about ending the slums without first saying profit must be taken out of the slums. You’re really tampering and getting on dangerous ground because you are messing with folk then. You are messing with captains of industry. Now this means that we are treading in difficult water, because it really means that we are saying that something is wrong with capitalism. There must be a better distribution of wealth, and maybe America must move toward a democratic socialism.”

So, put aside the fearmongering and the red-baiting; take a look instead at the substance. There’s no question we need big structural change, as Elizabeth Warren puts it. We need a better distribution of wealth, and a greater protection of basic human rights like the right to affordable health care, as Sanders argues. 

Call it capitalism with a conscience, democratic socialism, call it lemonade. It’s the substance, not the label that counts.

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The Trumps Don't Have a Right to the Taj Mahal Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51519"><span class="small">Juan Cole, Informed Comment</span></a>   
Wednesday, 26 February 2020 09:21

Cole writes: "The Trumps visited the Taj Mahal during their trip to India. They didn't have a right to do so."

The Taj Mahal. (photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)
The Taj Mahal. (photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)


The Trumps Don't Have a Right to the Taj Mahal

By Juan Cole, Informed Comment

26 February 20

 

he Trumps visited the Taj Mahal during their trip to India. They didn’t have a right to do so.

The building is properly the mausoleum of Mumtaz Mahall, literally “Queen Mumtaz” in Mughal Persian. It was constructed of white marble in Agra between 1631 and 1648 by the Mughal emperor of India, Shah Jahan (1628–58), in memory of his deeply beloved wife. The chronicles say that his hair went white when she died.

The tomb of Mumtaz Mahall is inscribed with the mystical 99 names of God. The whole complex is thought to be intended to invoke the images of the garden of paradise in the Qur’an.

Hindi doesn’t have a “z” and so her first name was pronounced as “Mumtaj” and then shortened to Taj.

The Taj is among the most magnificent products of Indo-Muslim architecture. It was produced in a Mughal Empire that was Muslim-led but which was multi-cultural. Rajput and Maharashtran Hindu notables provided officers, troops and bureaucrats. A quarter of posts of eminence were filled by Hindus in the mid-seventeenth century, and Shah Jahan was 3/4s of Hindu descent.

Shah Jahan’s mother was a Rajput Hindu princess, Manmati. His father’s line went back to Sunni Muslim notables of what is now Uzbekistan and ultimately in part to Buddhists of Mongolia. He married a Shiite bride whose family had hailed from Tehran.

Much of India was Muslim-ruled from the 1200s through the British East India Company’s military victory at Buxar in 1764. Central Asian Muslims had mastered the heavy horse cavalry and were early adopters of artillery, and so overwhelmed Indian villagers and townspeople. For some reason, perhaps because of tropical diseases, horses could not be bred in India itself.

UNESCO tells us,

“The Taj Mahal is considered to be the greatest architectural achievement in the whole range of Indo-Islamic architecture. Its recognised architectonic beauty has a rhythmic combination of solids and voids, concave and convex and light shadow; such as arches and domes further increases the aesthetic aspect. The colour combination of lush green scape reddish pathway and blue sky over it show cases the monument in ever changing tints and moods. The relief work in marble and inlay with precious and semi precious stones make it a monument apart.

The uniqueness of Taj Mahal lies in some truly remarkable innovations carried out by the horticulture planners and architects of Shah Jahan. One such genius planning is the placing of tomb at one end of the quadripartite garden rather than in the exact centre, which added rich depth and perspective to the distant view of the monument. It is also, one of the best examples of raised tomb variety. The tomb is further raised on a square platform with the four sides of the octagonal base of the minarets extended beyond the square at the corners. The top of the platform is reached through a lateral flight of steps provided in the centre of the southern side. The ground plan of the Taj Mahal is in perfect balance of composition, the octagonal tomb chamber in the centre, encompassed by the portal halls and the four corner rooms.

Most Indian Muslims are converts, though some later intermarried with Muslim immigrants from Central Asia, Iran or the Middle East, and they themselves have created genealogies going back to those places. British colonial anthropologists of the nineteenth century pointed out that Bengali Muslims did not differ in appearance from Hindus and so were almost certainly just local families who embraced Islam. Most such conversion in India was peaceful and voluntary, under the influence of Sufism or, as Richard Eaton argued, through patronage networks.

DNA analysis, archeology and linguistics all demonstrate that speakers of a language descended from proto-Indo-Aryan migrated into India. Some were Iranian agriculturalists who came south. Others were pastoralists who migrated in the second millennium BC. These migrations of people speaking this language group explain why Sanskrit and North Indian regional languages are related to European languages, since Indo-Aryan speakers also migrated into what is now Turkey and then into Europe.

The conclusion, that Vedic Hinduism is related to old Iranian, Norse, Greek and Roman religion and is not indigenous to India is now denied by fanatical advocates of “Hindutva,” who want to maintain that India was always Hindu and the old Indo-Aryan language originated in India.

These rather ridiculous positions are put forward in the service of a virulent Hindu nativism. One of the reasons for upholding this untrue proposition is so that no one can say that both Hinduism and Islam came to India from the outside. But they both did; Hinduism just got there first.

The chief proponent and implementer of a fascist Hindutva is Indian prime minister Narendra Modi of the far right Bharatiya Janata Party. Modi did nothing to stop massacres of Muslims in Gujarat when he was governor there a couple of decades ago, and he has systematically dismantled India’s pluralist and democratic institutions. He is backed up by gangs of the RSS, a particularly fascist group whom he has seeded into major Indian institutions.

Modi’s most recent initiative is the Citizenship Amendment act, which fast-tracks non-Muslim immigrants for citizenship over Muslim applicants. Although it does not affect most Indian Muslims, it has the symbolic effect of making them second class citizens.

Modi also has rendered nearly 2 million Muslim Indians in the eastern Assam state stateless, since they are Bengali Muslims rather than Assamese.

Modi has more or less imprisoned the entire Muslim-majority state of Kashmir (population 12.5 million) and cut it off from internet access to the outside world.

Gradually, he is setting up the 201 million Indian Muslims for demotion to the very bottom of Indian society and perhaps ultimately for statelessness and continual pogroms.

The more extreme elements of the Hindu nationalist movement have a plan to destroy the Taj Mahal. Nor can the Hindutva crowd admit that it and the Mughal Empire were fundamentally Indian achievements, even if mingled with Persian high art. The marble is from Rajastan. Many of the craftsmen were Hindus.

Many of Modi’s Hindutva programs deeply resemble the policies of the Trump administration toward Muslims.

Trump has imposed a Muslim ban with regard to immigration, forbidding visas to several Muslim-majority countries. He said “I think Islam hates us.” He has whipped up hatred of American Muslims, helping provoke the firebombing of numerous US mosques. He and his son-in-law Jared Kushner have attempted to impose permanent Apartheid on Muslim Palestinians.

Trump and Modi are both illiberal authoritarians chomping away at the foundations of democracy like hungry termites. Both are notorious Islamophobes with nothing but disdain for Muslims and the achievements of Muslim civilization.

And that is why, dear reader, for the Trumps to visit the Taj Mahal is sort of like notorious anti-Semites visiting The Alte Synagoge (Old Synagogue) in Erfurt, Germany. They don’t deserve it.

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The Humongous Costs of Inaction Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51635"><span class="small">Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog</span></a>   
Tuesday, 25 February 2020 13:53

Reich writes: "In last Wednesday night's Democratic debate, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg charged that Senator Bernie Sanders' policy proposals would cost $50 trillion. Holy Indiana."

Robert Reich. (photo: unknown)
Robert Reich. (photo: unknown)


The Humongous Costs of Inaction

By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog

25 February 20

 

n last Wednesday night’s Democratic debate, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg charged that Senator Bernie Sanders’ policy proposals would cost $50 trillion. Holy Indiana.

Larry Summers, formerly chief White House economic advisor for Barack Obama, puts the price tag at $60 trillion. “We are in a kind of new era of radical proposal,” he told CNN.

Putting aside the accuracy of these cost estimates, they omit the other side of the equation: what, by comparison, is the cost of doing nothing?

A Green New Deal might be expensive, but doing nothing about climate change will almost certainly cost far more. If we don’t launch something as bold as a Green New Deal, we’ll spend trillions coping with the consequences of our failure to be bold.

Medicare for All will cost a lot, but the price of doing nothing about America’s increasingly dysfunctional healthcare system will soon be in the stratosphere. A new study in The Lancet estimates that Medicare for All would save $450 billion and prevent 68,000 unnecessary deaths each year.

Investing in universal childcare, public higher education and woefully outdated and dilapidated infrastructure will be expensive too, but the cost of not making these investments would be astronomical. American productivity is already suffering and millions of families can’t afford decent childcare, college or housing – whose soaring costs are closely related to inadequate transportation and water systems.

Focusing only on the costs of doing something about these problems without mentioning the costs of doing nothing is misleading, but this asymmetry is widespread. 

Journalists wanting to appear serious about public policy continue to rip into Sanders and Elizabeth Warren (whose policies are almost as ambitious) for the costs of their proposals but never ask self-styled moderates like Buttigieg how they plan to cope with the costs of doing nothing or too little.

A related criticism of Sanders and Warren is that they haven’t come up with ways to pay for their proposals. Sanders “only explained $25 trillion worth of revenue, which means the hole in there is bigger than the size of the entire economy of the United States,” charged Mayor Pete.

Sanders’ and Warren’s wealth tax would go a long way toward paying for their plans.

But even if their wealth tax paid a small fraction of the costs of their proposals, so what? As long as every additional dollar of spending reduces by more than a dollar the future costs of climate change, inadequate healthcare and insufficient public investment, it makes sense to spend more.

Republican administrations have doled out gigantic tax cuts to big corporations and the wealthy without announcing specific cuts in public spending or other tax increases because – despite decades of evidence to the contrary – they claim the cuts will generate economic growth that will more than make up for any lost revenue.

Yet when Warren and Sanders propose ambitious plans for reducing empirically verifiable costs of large and growing public problems, they are skewered by fellow Democrats and the press for not having ways to pay for them.

A third line of criticism is that Sanders’ and Warren’s proposals are just too big. It would be safer to move cautiously and incrementally.

This argument might be convincing if the problems Sanders and Warren address were growing slowly. But experts on the environment, health, education and infrastructure are nearly unanimous: these problems are worsening exponentially.

Young people understand this, perhaps because they will bear more of the costs of inaction. An Emerson poll of Iowa found that 44% of Democrats under 50 support Sanders and 10% favor Warren. In New Hampshire, Sanders won more voters under 30 than the other candidates combined, according to CNN exit polls. In Nevada, he captured an astonishing 65 percent of voters under 30. 

The reason to support Sanders’ and Warren’s proposals isn’t because they inspire and mobilize voters. It is because they are necessary.

We can no longer pretend that climate change, a wildly dysfunctional healthcare system and a yawning deficit in public investment pose insignificant challenges. Doing nothing or doing too little will make them far worse. 

Obsessing about the cost of addressing them without acknowledging the cost of failing to address them is dangerously irresponsible,

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Bernie Sanders Was Right About Cuba Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=53246"><span class="small">Ben Burgis, Jacobin</span></a>   
Tuesday, 25 February 2020 13:53

Burgis writes: "Bernie Sanders was right to applaud Cuba's literacy programs even as he criticized the country's undemocratic political system. He has nothing to apologize for."

Bernie Sanders. (photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)
Bernie Sanders. (photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)


ALSO SEE: Bloomberg Campaign Tweets Fake Sanders' Quotes Praising Dictators

Bernie Sanders Was Right About Cuba

By Ben Burgis, Jacobin

25 February 20


Bernie Sanders was right to applaud Cuba’s literacy programs even as he criticized the country’s undemocratic political system. He has nothing to apologize for.

ver the weekend, in an interview with Anderson Cooper for 60 Minutes, Democratic presidential front-runner Bernie Sanders was asked about old video clips in which he praised the achievements of the Cuban Revolution without endorsing the island nation’s undemocratic political system. Sanders’s response to Cooper was a nuanced evaluation of the pros and cons of the Cuban model from a democratic socialist point of view.

“We’re very opposed to the authoritarian nature of Cuba,” he said, but “it’s unfair to simply say that everything is bad.” He then cited the enormously successful literacy program that Fidel Castro initiated immediately after the revolution, noting that it would be absurd to say the policy was “a bad thing” because “Castro did it.” Finally, answering Cooper’s follow-up question, Sanders unequivocally condemned the Cuban government’s jailing of political dissidents.

These manifestly reasonable comments were immediately denounced not just by conservatives like Kevin D. Williamson, who wrote a piece on the controversy for the National Review entitled “Bernie Sanders is a Moral Monster,” but also by Democrats like Florida congresswomen Debbie Mucarsel-Powell and Donna Shalala, former Democratic National Committee head Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, and most of Sanders’s rivals in the race for the Democratic nomination.

Generally speaking, the critics chose to focus on the middle part of the 60 Minutes clip, simply pretending that the snippet didn’t begin with Sanders denouncing the “authoritarian nature” of the Cuban government and end with him deploring that government’s jailing of dissidents. Williamson, for example, vaguely noted that Sanders said “some criticisms” of Cuba’s leaders were unfair and then immediately launched into a rant about how Castro “lined up political dissidents and shot them.” Similarly, former South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg tweeted that Sanders “doesn’t recognize” that “we need a president who will be extremely clear” about human rights violations abroad.

The Narnia Standard

Are these critics attacking Sanders based on a willful misrepresentation of his comments? In the cases I just quoted, that certainly seems to be the case. Still, there may be a (slightly) more charitable way to interpret at least some of their complaints.

For example, in a CNN town hall on Monday, Pete Buttigieg responded to a quote in which Sanders said that “teaching people to read and write is a good thing” by faulting him for asking people to see the “bright side of the Castro regime.” Instead, Mayor Buttigieg insisted, we should “stand unequivocally against dictatorships everywhere in the world.”

To Buttigieg, it’s not good enough that Sanders clearly and unambiguously condemned the authoritarian aspects of Cuba’s system because his comments weren’t “unequivocal” in the sense of being entirely critical rather than including a mix of criticism and praise. The principle Buttigieg is appealing to is that it’s wrong to praise any policy of a dictatorship. Apparently, the “unequivocally” anti-dictatorship stand is to talk about all undemocratic countries “everywhere in the world” as if they lacked any positive features whatsoever — like Narnia before Aslan, where it was “always winter and never Christmas.”

This certainly seems to be the standard Sanders’s critics applied in a previous iteration of the same “praise for Communist dictatorships” attack, when clips were dredged up from the press conference that Sanders, then the mayor of Burlington, gave when he and his entourage returned from a trip to the USSR in 1988. Even though Sanders took time in the press conference to criticize the Soviet Union for its lack of democracy and for the poor quality of its housing and hospitals, the fact that he praised the undeniable architectural impressiveness of Soviet subway stations was treated as evidence that Sanders might as well have been a Stalinist — never mind that the man has spent his entire political career, even in his fire-breathing radical youth in Vermont’s Liberty Union Party, calling himself a “democratic” socialist precisely to differentiate his vision of a good society from the Soviet model.

One obvious problem with the Narnia standard for “unequivocal” criticism of authoritarian regimes is that it requires you to deny easily verified facts. Cuba did make tremendous strides in literacy, infant mortality, racial desegregation, doctor-patient ratio, and many other areas after the revolution. When the subject comes up, is a properly “unequivocal” opponent of dictatorships supposed to pretend not to know that all of this happened? Is the rule that you always have to respond by changing the subject?

Unsurprisingly, hardly anyone plays by this rule in practice. As commentator Eric Levitz points out in his excellent piece on the controversy, every president in the last several decades, Democrat or Republican, has “found positive things to say” about a regime in Saudi Arabia whose human rights record is far, far worse than Cuba’s.

Take one of the most indefensible parts of the Cuban state’s record: gay rights. In the years immediately after the revolution, gay men were arrested and put in labor camps. Since then, the situation has dramatically improved — so much so that in recent years, state-sanctioned gay pride parades have been held in the streets of Havana. Compare this to contemporary Saudi Arabia, where homosexuality remains a beheading offense.

And even in the specific case of Cuba, centrist Democrats haven’t generally held one another to the Narnia standard. For example, to the best of my knowledge, no major Democrat criticized Barack Obama for praising Cuba’s education system — in a speech he delivered in Cuba, no less — in 2016.

The Sanders Difference

Is the difference between Sanders’s comments and Obama’s that some worry Sanders secretly longs to import the authoritarian aspects of Cuba’s system to the United States? If so, this isn’t a rational concern. As Levitz points out, Sanders is a fervent believer in democratic rights — so much so that he’s taken considerably heat for suggesting that those in prison should still have the right to vote. His rating from the American Civil Liberties Union is 100 percent, and his commitment to free speech has led him to criticize student activists for shouting down right-wing speakers on college campuses.

Perhaps the worry isn’t that Sanders wants America to become an authoritarian one-party state, but that he thinks, in some sense, that it’s fine for Cuba to be such a state. This certainly seems to be what Kevin Williamson is suggesting when he writes that Sanders is “rather like the apologists for antebellum slavery who say, ‘Well, think of how much better-fed they were than they would have been in Africa.’”

Is the Cuban Revolution supposed to be the equivalent of the transatlantic slave trade in this analogy? If so, an obvious difference is that Africans lost their freedom. Far from replacing a democracy with a dictatorship, the Cuban Revolution replaced a dictatorship that oversaw monumental economic inequality, poverty, misery, illiteracy, de jure racial segregation, and high infant mortality with a dictatorship that promoted racial equality and redistributed much of the wealth of the ruling oligarchs to promote social goods like health care and education. And, as indicated by his condemnation of the “authoritarian nature” of Cuba’s leadership and his call for political prisoners to be freed, Sanders thinks that it would be better if Cubans — without losing their social rights to health care, higher education, and the rest — also gained the democratic rights he defends so passionately in the United States.

This is a fundamentally decent and principled position. Sanders should be commended for taking it. And if he becomes president despite his refusal to reduce complicated realities to the cartoonish slogans of two-dimensional anti-communism, he’ll have succeeded in showing future candidates that they don’t need to pander to the most extreme elements of the Cuban-American community in order to win.

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Fossil-Fuel Subsidies Must End Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=53449"><span class="small">Geoffrey Supran, Peter Erickson, Doug Koplow, Michael Lazarus, Peter Newell, Naomi Oreskes and Harro van Asselt, Scientific American</span></a>   
Tuesday, 25 February 2020 13:53

Excerpt: "When it comes to tackling the climate crisis, ending $400 billion of annual subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry worldwide seems like a no-brainer. For the past decade, world leaders have been resolving and reaffirming the need to phase them out."

Oil rig, Beaufort Sea. (photo: Getty Images)
Oil rig, Beaufort Sea. (photo: Getty Images)


Fossil-Fuel Subsidies Must End

By Geoffrey Supran, Peter Erickson, Doug Koplow, Michael Lazarus, Peter Newell, Naomi Oreskes and Harro van Asselt, Scientific American

25 February 20


Despite claims to the contrary, eliminating them would have a significant effect in addressing the climate crisis

hen it comes to tackling the climate crisis, ending $400 billion of annual subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry worldwide seems like a no-brainer. For the past decade, world leaders have been resolving and reaffirming the need to phase them out. All of the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates have committed to eliminating fossil-fuel subsidies, and the vast majority of the American public supports doing so. International financial institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have joined the chorus, pointing to the benefits of reform.

In 2018, however, a group of researchers questioned the magnitude of the climate benefits of subsidy reform, reporting that their simulations showed its effect would be “limited” and “small.” Stories in the press began asking whether such subsidies are such a big deal after all.

We think this is wrong. In a new paper in the journal Nature, we make the case that they do matter—a lot. In the 2018 study, emissions reductions from subsidy removal were calculated by the researchers to be five hundred million to two billion metric tons of carbon dioxide per year by 2030. This figure is by no means “small.” It amounts to roughly one quarter of the energy-related emission reductions pledged by all of the countries participating in the Paris Agreement (four to eight billion tons). Hundreds of millions of metric tons of CO2 reductions is nothing to sneeze at, particularly when it can be achieved by a single policy approach that also brings strong fiscal, environmental and health benefits.

Moreover previous work has likely underestimated the emissions reductions that would occur, because commonly used techniques do not accurately capture the investment dynamics of fossil fuels. But these dynamics can greatly affect what oil and gas companies do.

In our analysis of the issue, we take the example of one specific subsidy: a federal tax break that allows U.S. oil producers to immediately deduct from their taxes most of the costs of constructing and drilling new wells. Conventional models assume that subsidies such as this are uniformly distributed across all oil fields, whereas in reality, governments often preferentially target new—rather than existing—capital investments. The result is a lowering of producers’ up-front cash-flow requirements, leading them to drill more new wells than they otherwise would. This process locks in and accelerates fossil-fuel production and, in turn, greenhouse gas emissions. We estimate that true emissions reductions from eliminating this tax-break subsidy could be more than an order of magnitude greater than was predicted using the conventional modeling approach.

And this tax break is just one subsidy. A separate, peer-reviewed analysis by some of us in 2017 demonstrated that without a dozen key subsidies, nearly half of the U.S.’s future oil production could be unprofitable at $50-per-barrel oil prices—the level at which prices may hover in a low-carbon future.

In other countries, the forms of subsidies can, of course, vary. But around the world, fossil-fuel production and consumption are supported in hundreds of ways. Indeed, the most troubling impact and legacy of fossil-fuel subsidies may be the political barriers—rather than financial ones—that fossil-fuel producers have erected against decarbonization efforts over a period of decades. Revenue boosts from subsidies can support not only more drilling but also product promotion, political activities and other efforts that reinforce the industry’s incumbent status. Subsidies also have a symbolic effect, signaling that this industry and its activities are beneficial for society as a whole and that they therefore should be encouraged.

In another paper, published just last month, experts studying the social tipping points for climate stabilization concluded that “redirecting national subsidy programs to renewables ... or removing the subsidies for fossil-fuel technologies are the tipping interventions that are needed for the take-off and diffusion of fossil-fuel–free energy systems.”

Economic models provide useful guidance to policy makers. But as we show in our article, most have a blind spot, failing to capture key ways in which subsidies send signals to markets and people. Overreliance on these models can create a false sense of certainty that misses the big picture: Of course subsidies matter to the fossil fuel industry and help to prop it up. That is why they were introduced in the first place and why the industry and its allies continue to defend them. As the Department of Energy itself concluded 40 years ago, federal subsidies have had a “large effect” on capital formation and oil production in the U.S. And more oil infrastructure and more production mean more greenhouse gas emissions.

The public and policy makers should be under no illusions about the basic realities at stake: Holding back catastrophic global warming requires dramatically reducing fossil-fuel production. And subsidies to fossil-fuel companies undermine that goal. Once upon a time, it made sense for countries to support their fossil fuel industries. But that time is over.

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