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The Road From Here: What About Medicare and Social Security? |
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Wednesday, 23 October 2013 09:20 |
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Eskow writes: "There are only a few ways this could play out, and most of them involve cuts to Medicare and Social Security. The ones which don't probably involve either A) catastrophic gridlock or B) a mobilized citizenry."
Sen. Dick Durbin's recent statements indicate that Social Security is on the table. (photo: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg)

The Road From Here: What About Medicare and Social Security?
By Richard (RJ) Eskow, Campaign for America's Future
23 October 13
s the Bob Dylan song says: "Things should start to get interesting right about now." You may think they're already interesting - what with government closings, threats of a debt default, and extremist rhetoric under the Capitol Dome - but chances are we ain't seen nothin' yet.
In twelve weeks or so our new system of government-by-crisis will resume its regularly scheduled programming: more threats, more confrontations, and even more extreme rhetoric.
There are only a few ways this could play out, and most of them involve cuts to Medicare and Social Security. The ones which don't probably involve either A) catastrophic gridlock or B) a mobilized citizenry.
Your personal level of optimism probably correlates closely to whether you think A or B is more likely.
Vox Populi
Any scenario which leads to Social Security or Medicare cuts would be bad for seniors. It would also be bad for any politician who supported it.
A recent poll by Lake Research shows that 82% of all Americans oppose cuts to Social Security, including 83% of Democrats, 78% of independents, 82% of Republicans - and, in one of the most startling findings of all, fully three-fourths of all self-described Tea Party members (74%). (Social Security Works has a video and a petition on this subject.)
Democrats hold the advantage on this issue right now, which means it's theirs to lose. There's a historical precedent: in 2010, after two years of presidential rhetoric about trimming entitlements, Democrats experienced a twenty-point plunge on the question "which party do you most trust to handle Social Security?" Republicans responded with a thoroughly predictable, utterly insincere - and very effective - "Seniors' Bill Of Rights."
2010 is the year Democrats lost control of the House.
Terribly Wrong
This weekend we saw Sen. Dick Durbin proclaim that "entitlement cuts" were acceptable in return for tax increases. In doing so, he repeated a couple of the right-wing misconceptions that have put this fundamentally sound program in political jeopardy. "Social Security is gonna run out of money in 20 years," Durbin was quoted as saying. "The Baby Boom generation is gonna blow away our future. We don't wanna see that happen."
It's true that Social Security's massive surplus - currently in the $2 trillion range - will be gone by the 2030s, according to projections. But the program will still have a massive revenue stream and will be able to pay three-quarters of its scheduled benefits. And the Boomer generation's large size also means that it has made large payments into the Social Security system throughout its working life. (That's where today's enormous surplus comes from.)
Dick Durbin has been a champion for many good causes. It's sad that he's on the wrong side of this one - sad, but not surprising. A number of prominent Democrats are there with him, although many others continue to fight the good fight. The Republican Party, on the other hand, has been on the wrong side of Social Security and Medicare for a long time. There are no good guys on that side of the fence.
But this kind of inflammatory and inaccurate rhetoric is wrong. It fuels the flames of intergenerational war in a nation that has always thrived on mutual cooperation, and betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of economic and actuarial reality. Statements like these aren't just false. They come dangerously close to demagoguery.
What Really Happened
This divisive anti-entitlement talk overlooks some crucial facts. Social Security was not projected to run a deficit until two things happened: First, an enormous amount of our national income moved to the top 1%, above the current payroll tax; and second, the Wall Street-driven financial crisis left 22 million Americans un- or under-employed, depriving the program of even more revenue.
Medicare's projected costs, which were projected to eat up the lion's share of the federal budget over the next seventy-five years, have come down or as a result of reductions in the rate of health care cost increases. Its remaining cost problems are well beyond the control of the individual seniors who belong to the program, so benefit cuts would merely victimize them by placing a much greater burden on them as individuals.
Those projected costs are, above all else, the result of runaway profit-taking in our medical economy - a problem which Washington's insiders appear unwilling to address.
The Fix Is … Out
But, aside from the Progressive Congressional Caucus and a few courageous Senators, few people in Washington are talking about the fairest and most effective fixes for these problems. For Social Security that means raising the payroll tax, imposing a Wall Street transaction tax, and increasing payroll contributions - which a poll shows most Americans would be happy to pay in return for increasing, rather than decreasing, its benefits.
For Medicare, it means reorganizing our medical payment system so that it more closely resembles that of the nations which refuse to tolerate excessive profit-taking in healthcare - and pay far less than we do for it.
Unfortunately, most of the Senators and House members promoting these solutions are not in leadership positions. So we find ourselves in a Bizarro-World situation where too many Democrats speak like Republicans, most Republican Party leaders speak like right-wing extremists, and the Republican Party "insurgents" sound more and more like the leaders of paramilitary militias.
That's hardly a strong foundation on which to negotiate our economic future.
The Posturing
Now the posturing has begun. The position taken by Durbin, and apparently by the President as well, is that Republicans must agree to tax increases in return for entitlement cuts. As Zach Carter reported in the Huffington Post, Chris Wallace of Fox News asked Sen. Durbin why Republicans should have to agree to anything in order to get cuts which Democrats like Durbin and the President already support.
Unfortunately, it's a reasonable question. Not only do these Democrats apparently want to cut "entitlements" - some such cuts are included in the President's current budget - but they've essentially conceded as much, leaving them very little negotiating leverage.
for their part, Republicans say they're willing to give up the harmful cuts known as sequestration - and only those cuts - in return for Social Security and Medicare benefit reductions. Their defense-contractor patrons would be amply rewarded in return for sacrifices from America's seniors and disabled.
The Scenarios
That's where our short list of scenarios comes in. So far, defenders of Social Security and Medicare have been saved by the extremism of the Republican Party's right. They'd be more than happy to cut Medicare and Social Security - perhaps to eliminate them altogether - but they don't seem inclined to accept any accommodation with the "interloper" they believe is living in the White House.
So, in one scenario, Social Security and Medicare are saved from the so-called "Grand Bargain" by Tea Party extremists who refuse any deal. That rescue would come with a very high price: ongoing economic uncertainty would continue to drain the nation of jobs and growth, while GOP extremists continued to polarize society and degrade our political rhetoric.
In a second scenario, Democrats retreat considerably from their current position and accept these entitlement cuts in return for something like a one-year cease-fire in the government shutdown and debt ceiling wars.
In another scenario, the "Grand Bargain" is negotiated by leaders from both parties, and is then celebrated as a triumph for common sense and a victory for "the adults in the room." That would lead to even greater financial hardship for tens of millions of seniors and disabled Americans, now and for many decades to come.
Another scenario has Democrats like Obama and Durbin pushing these cuts through anyway to demonstrate to the commentariat and other receptive audiences that they are, in fact, the "adults" of American politics (if "adulthood" has become synonymous with a lack of vision or courage.)
Entitlement cuts are not an "adult" position. They're a traditionally conservative position - and would mean a significant retrenchment for the Democratic Party's signature achievements.
None Of The Above
There's a very different scenario, however, one which points toward a significantly brighter future. That's the scenario in which progressives, both officeholders and activists, lead a popular movement which reflects public opinion and defends these programs from so-called "Grand Bargain" cuts.
It won't be easy. The viewpoint of a vast majority of Americans - including the vast majority of Republicans, and even of Tea Party members - has been marginalized inside the Beltway as that of "the left," or even "the extreme left." Politicians who defend these programs will have to stand up to the talking heads and lobbyists who, despite all the evidence, continue to deny the truth: their anti-"entitlement" Beltway views stand well outside the mainstream of American public opinion.
That crowd, with its talk of "Baby Boomers busting the bank" and "Social Security gone bankrupt," is the real political "fringe" in this debate. Unfortunately, this "fringe" has a lot of money behind it.
It won't be an easy victory. But it's the only ending to this story in which everybody lives happily ever after: Seniors and disabled people aren't forced unnecessarily into penury or financial insecurity. Good Democrats get elected, or reelected, to office. A serious conversation is begun about how to mitigate the effects of runaway profit-seeking on American healthcare.
That scenario won't come by itself. People will have to work for it. But it would be more than worth the effort.

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Julian Assange and WikiLeaks Cheer 'Fifth Estate's' Small Audience |
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Wednesday, 23 October 2013 09:16 |
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Dewey writes: "WikiLeaks is right that the film, much like the books it's based on, is short on good vibes for Assange and his work."
WikiLeaks believes the movie The Fifth Estate is packed with lies. (photo: The Fifth Estate)

Julian Assange and WikiLeaks Cheer 'Fifth Estate's' Small Audience
By Caitlin Dewey, The Washington Post
23 October 13
ikiLeaks wants you to know that it's very happy to see the new movie "The Fifth Estate," about the whistle-blowing organization's birth, bomb fantastically at the box office this weekend. How happy? Of the 21 tweets that WikiLeaks sent on Monday, three involved a document dump from an intelligence contractor in Bahrain, one linked to an article about the United States' chemical weapons stockpile, and 12 celebrated the dreadful ticket sales of "Fifth Estate" 's debut.


It's no secret that WikiLeaks chief Julian Assange and others with the organization were unhappy about "The Fifth Estate." For months, they have campaigned vocally against the movie, which WikiLeaks considers an unfair portrayal of the events leading up to U.S. Army Pvt. Chelsea Manning's 2010 release of more than 250,000 U.S. diplomatic cables and other government materials.
The movie is, admittedly, getting terrible reviews. I admit that I fell asleep during a Saturday night showing, despite my considerable interest in the subject matter. But WikiLeaks' unremitting and sometimes overheated criticism of the film is something else entirely -- and can sometimes seem only to reinforce criticisms of the group as paranoid and self-aggrandizing. More than one supporter has asked the organization to please get back to leaking government secrets. Here's the film's trailer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZT1wb8_tcYU
In response, WikiLeaks has made its own documentary, "Mediastan," which is free for downloading during "Fifth Estate" 's release.
WikiLeaks' beef with the movie appears to come down to three things. First, Assange and company complain that the filmmakers "had an agenda" -- that they set out to make WikiLeaks look bad while failing to show the good that the organization has done. Second, they're unhappy that the film has been marketed as more factual than it is, given that many of its events and characters are only loosely based on real life. Third, and perhaps most tellingly, there's also what can feel like an undercurrent of sour grapes to the criticism, as if maybe WikiLeaks just wanted to be invited to the party.
"The film does not tell the story Julian Assange or WikiLeaks staff such as Sarah Harrison, Joseph Farrell or Kristinn Hrafnsson would tell," a WikiLeaks memo says.
That seems to be the real crux of their complaints: "Fifth Estate" does not think of WikiLeaks the way WikiLeaks likes to think of itself. WikiLeaks argues that the film carries a pro-secrecy, pro-government bias, but it could also be the case that the film is trying to bring a different perspective to an issue with many controversial -- and valid! -- sides.
It's worth remembering that the books upon which "The Fifth Estate" is based were written by two people who underwent very public fallings-out with Assange and WikiLeaks. Daniel Domscheit-Berg, the organization's former spokesman, was fired in 2010 after he and Assange fought over his role in WikiLeaks. Domscheit-Berg went on to write a book, "Inside WikiLeaks: My Time with Julian Assange and the World's Most Dangerous Website," and give many, many media interviews about Assange -- whom he described as erratic, paranoid and "obsessed with power," which tracks with the Assange we see in the film.
The other book, "WikiLeaks: Inside Julian Assange's War on Secrecy," was written by Guardian reporters David Leigh and Luke Harding. Leigh has called Assange a "reckless amateur" and reported some unattractive tidbits about the WikiLeaks leader -- including one incident in which Assange allegedly said he didn't care if informants got killed because of what he published.
WikiLeaks is right that the film, much like the books it's based on, is short on good vibes for Assange and his work. That's nothing new: Lots of Hollywood movies have been made from unflattering books, and lots of their subjects have hated them. "The Social Network," about Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, comes to mind. But while Zuckerberg commented in several interviews that the film wasn't true to life, his criticisms never rose to the sort of moral outrage that WikiLeaks has mustered up, in repeatedly condemning the film as not "fair and accurate."
Of course, WikiLeaks may need to fight for its reputation in a way Facebook or Zuckerberg never have. It has never been a particularly beloved organization -- even in the immediate aftermath of the 2010 leaks about the war in Afghanistan, which is itself unpopular, one poll found that 68 percent of Americans considered WikiLeaks a threat to the public interest, and 59 percent wanted Assange arrested. It doesn't appear that impression has changed too much over the past three years: Public opinion of Edward Snowden, who leaked information on a vast NSA spying program and later sought legal help from WikiLeaks, is also very mixed. And WikiLeaks, critically, relies largely on donations to fund its work.
If WikiLeaks is hoping to promote itself as a group serving a grand, idealistic cause, though, it might want to avoid sounding quite so catty on Twitter.


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Tea Party: Rich, Elite, Right-Wing Tradition |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=17709"><span class="small">Michael Lind, Salon</span></a>
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Tuesday, 22 October 2013 15:32 |
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Lind writes: "In general, the American white working class is as liberal on economic issues as it was during the New Deal era - and far more progressive than many of the socially liberal billionaires who finance the Democratic Party of Clinton and Obama."
Sen. Ted Cruz is not anything new. (photo: Salon)

Tea Party: Rich, Elite, Right-Wing Tradition
By Michael Lind, Salon
22 October 13
This is not some spontaneous uprising. It's the newest incarnation of a rich, elite, right-wing tradition
n recent essays for Salon I have argued that progressives and mainstream pundits are making a profound mistake by treating Tea Party radicalism as an outburst of irrationality by moronic "low information" yokels, rather than understanding it as a calculated (if not necessarily successful) strategy by the regional elite of the South and its allies in other regions. In an Op-Ed for the Wall Street Journal titled "The Tea Party and the GOP Crackup," William Galston presents data that reinforces this conclusion:
Many frustrated liberals, and not a few pundits, think that people who share these beliefs must be downscale and poorly educated. The New York Times survey found the opposite. Only 26% of tea-party supporters regard themselves as working class, versus 34% of the general population; 50% identify as middle class (versus 40% nationally); and 15% consider themselves upper-middle class (versus 10% nationally). Twenty-three percent are college graduates, and an additional 14% have postgraduate training, versus 15% and 10%, respectively, for the overall population. Conversely, only 29% of tea-party supporters have just a high-school education or less, versus 47% for all adults.
I have also argued that the Tea Party is not a new movement that sprang up as a result of spontaneous populist anger against Wall Street bailouts in the Great Recession, but rather the "newest right," the most recent incarnation of an evolving right-wing tradition that goes back beyond Reagan and Goldwater to mostly Southern roots. Galston notes the high degree of overlap between the Tea Party and mainstream Republican conservatives:
Nor, finally, is the tea party an independent outside force putting pressure on Republicans, according to the survey. Fully 76% of its supporters either identify with or lean toward the Republican Party. Rather, they are a dissident reform movement within the party, determined to move it back toward true conservatism after what they see as the apostasies of the Bush years and the outrages of the Obama administration.
Against progressives and pundits who insist on blaming the white working class for Tea Party radicalism, I have argued that the radical right agenda serves the interest of the economic elites of the South and some areas in the Midwest and other regions - particularly those whose business models are threatened by unions, high minimum wages and environmental regulations. Here, too, Galston understands what most commentators miss:
Many tea-party supporters are small businessmen who see taxes and regulations as direct threats to their livelihood. Unlike establishment Republicans who see potential gains from government programs such as infrastructure funding, these tea partiers regard most government spending as a deadweight loss. Because many of them run low-wage businesses on narrow margins, they believe that they have no choice but to fight measures, such as ObamaCare, that reduce their flexibility and raise their costs-measures to which large corporations with deeper pockets can adjust.
I have high regard for Galston's abilities as a political analyst, and no small regard for my own. But this is not rocket science. All of this has been obvious to anyone who bothered to examine the polling and voting data, since the term "Tea Party" first entered the national dialogue following the crash of 2008.
Why, in the face of all of this evidence, are so many progressives and pundits convinced that the white working class, rather than affluent and educated conservative elites, are the driving force behind the right? Why do so many American progressives blame the masses for a movement of the classes? The answer is that the American center-left has been misled for half a century by the bad scholarship of the historian Richard Hoftstadter (1916-1970) and by German Marxist emigres of the Frankfurt School.
In the U.S., as in Western Europe, coalitions of populist farmers who united with organized urban workers were the social base of progressive movements like the New Deal. This was recognized by the liberal historians of the 1930s and 1940s, who tended to celebrate the contribution of populism to the evolving New Deal tradition.
Throughout the progressive and New Deal eras, to be sure, urban American intellectuals like H.L. Mencken tended to despise rural people, in every country; Mencken despised European "peasants" as much as he despised the provincial American "booboisie." Hoftstadter infused Menckenseque contempt for rural and working-class Americans into postwar intellectual liberalism, by means of influential books like "Social Darwinism in American Thought, 1860–1915? (1944); "The American Political Tradition" (1948); "The Age of Reform" (1955); "Anti-Intellectualism in American Life" (1963). By emphasizing genuine examples of racism and anti-Semitism among agrarian Populists, without pointing out that these biases were widely shared among American Anglo-Protestant elites who often despised the Populists, Hoftstadter convinced several generations of American college students and professors that the Populists were a kind of incipient fascist force. By the 1960s, all too many American liberal intellectuals looked at their working-class fellow citizens and saw, not the heroic workers of the new Deal era murals, but peasants with pitchforks and proto-Nazis.
Many mid-century liberal intellectuals blamed first McCarthyism and then the rise of the Goldwater-Reagan movement on a deranged white working class. They found confirmation for this theory not only in Hofstadter but also in "The Authoritarian Personality," a 1950 collection of essays by sociologists led by Theodor W. Adorno, a refugee from Hitler who had been part of the "Frankfurt School" of Marxist sociology. As Jon Wiener has explained:
The Age of Reform was framed around the theory of "status politics," which came from an essay by German sociologist Max Weber, published in the United States by Hofstadter's Columbia colleague and friend the radical sociologist C. Wright Mills. Hofstadter's "status politics" thesis held that the Populists were driven to irrationality and paranoia by anxiety over their declining status in an America where rural life and its values were being supplanted by an urban industrial society. Populism, in this view, was a form of reactionary resistance to modernity. Here Hofstadter was the Jewish New York intellectual anxiously looking for traces of proto-fascism somewhere in middle America. He saw Joe McCarthy as a potential American Hitler and believed he had found the roots of American fascism among rural Protestants in the Midwest. It was history by analogy-but the analogy didn't work.
The scholarship of Adorno and Hofstadter has long been discredited. In the case of Germany, the historian Michael Mann has demonstrated that National Socialism was widely supported by Germans of all classes, including elites. During the 1930s, the would-be leaders of American fascism tended to come from the American elite, including Lawrence Dennis, a Harvard-educated foreign service officer, and Philip Johnson, an upper-class trust-funder who later became the most celebrated American architect of the second half of the 20th century. Johnson's fling with fascism in the 1930s became a scandal in his later years. An "embedded reporter" with the Wehrmacht during its invasion of Poland, considered a reliable American friend of the Nazi regime, the young Johnson wrote: "The German green uniforms made the place look gay and happy. There were not many Jews to be seen. We saw Warsaw burn and Modlin being bombed. It was a stirring spectacle."
Recent scholarship on Goldwater-Reagan conservatism has demolished the idea that it represented a rebellion by disoriented yahoos. Indeed, in 1984 Reagan took 62.7 percent of the college-educated vote, compared to Walter Mondale's 36.9 percent. Working-class "Reagan Democrats" notwithstanding, Reaganism was a revolt of the privileged against the New Deal order that had been built by the farmer-labor alliance in coalition with middle-class progressives.
Today as in the Reagan era, the Democrats are the more downscale, less-educated party, while the Republicans tend to win the votes of educated and affluent white Americans. In 2012 Romney received the votes of 52 percent of college-educated white women and 55 percent of college-educated white men, losing only the tiny sliver of whites with post-graduate degrees like university professors.
While white voters of all age groups preferred Romney to Obama, the propensity of whites to vote for Republicans rises with income. According to the Public Religion Research Institute, "Among whites without a college degree, income has become a stronger predictor of the vote over time. But actually it's those with less income, not more income, who are more likely to support Democratic presidential candidates. And again, there certainly no trend by which whites with below-average incomes and no college degree become more Republican."
PRRI notes:
- White working-class voters in households that make less than $30,000 per year were nearly evenly divided in their voting preferences (39% favored Obama, 42% favored Romney). However, a majority (51%) of white working-class voters with annual incomes of $30,000 or more a year supported Romney, while 35% preferred Obama.
- Half (50%) of white working-class voters who have not reported using food stamps in the past two years supported Romney, while less than one-third (32%) supported Obama. By contrast, white working-class voters who reported receiving food stamps in the last two years preferred Obama to Romney by a significant margin (48% vs. 36%).
The white working class is pretty evenly divided among Democrats and Republicans in the Northeast, Midwest and West - only in the South are working-class whites overwhelmingly Republican. It is the Southern white working class that skews the voting statistics and culture-war issues like "God, guns and gays," on which white Southerners of all classes tend to be more conservatives than whites in other regions.
In general, the American white working class is as liberal on economic issues as it was during the New Deal era - and far more progressive than many of the socially liberal billionaires who finance the Democratic Party of Clinton and Obama:
- Seven-in-ten (70%) white working-class Americans believe the economic system in this country unfairly favors the wealthy, and a majority (53%) say that one of the biggest problems in this country is that we don't give everyone an equal chance in life.
- A plurality (46%) of white working-class Americans believe that capitalism and the free market system are at odds with Christian values, while 38% disagree.
- Nearly 8-in-10 white working-class Americans say that corporations moving American jobs overseas are somewhat (25%) or very (53%) responsible for Americans' current economic distress.
- Over 6-in-10 (62%) white working-class Americans favor raising the tax rate on Americans with household incomes of over $1 million per year.
In light of all of this, it comes as no surprise that identifying the Tea Party with the white working class is a mistake:
White working-class Americans (13 percent) are no more likely than white college-educated Americans (10 percent) to say they consider themselves part of the Tea Party. White working-class Americans (34 percent) are also about equally as likely as white college-educated Americans (31 percent) to say the Tea Party movement shares their values.
If it wants to live up to its claim of being "the reality-based community," the American center-left needs to dispense with the half-century-old anti-working-class mythology of Hofstadter and Adorno and look at real-world electoral and opinion data, for a change. By refusing to recognize that today's right-wing radicalism serves the interests of elites - in particular, Southern elites - and blaming it erroneously on the non-Southern white working class, progressives only harm themselves, not least by confusing their enemies with their potential allies.

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Why Washington Can't Stop |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=6396"><span class="small">Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch</span></a>
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Tuesday, 22 October 2013 15:23 |
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Engelhardt writes: "Despite this stunning global power equation, for more than a decade we have been given a lesson in what a military, no matter how overwhelming, can and (mostly) can't do in the twenty-first century, in what a military, no matter how staggeringly advanced, does and (mostly) does not translate into on the current version of planet Earth."
US military power is unprecedented. (photo: US Navy)

Why Washington Can't Stop
By Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch
22 October 13
n terms of pure projectable power, there's never been anything like it. Its military has divided the world -- the whole planet -- into six "commands." Its fleet, with 11 aircraft carrier battle groups, rules the seas and has done so largely unchallenged for almost seven decades. Its Air Force has ruled the global skies, and despite being almost continuously in action for years, hasn't faced an enemy plane since 1991 or been seriously challenged anywhere since the early 1970s. Its fleet of drone aircraft has proven itself capable of targeting and killing suspected enemies in the backlands of the planet from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Yemen and Somalia with little regard for national boundaries, and none at all for the possibility of being shot down. It funds and trains proxy armies on several continents and has complex aid and training relationships with militaries across the planet. On hundreds of bases, some tiny and others the size of American towns, its soldiers garrison the globe from Italy to Australia, Honduras to Afghanistan, and on islands from Okinawa in the Pacific Ocean to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Its weapons makers are the most advanced on Earth and dominate the global arms market. Its nuclear weaponry in silos, on bombers, and on its fleet of submarines would be capable of destroying several planets the size of Earth. Its system of spy satellites is unsurpassed and unchallenged. Its intelligence services can listen in on the phone calls or read the emails of almost anyone in the world from top foreign leaders to obscure insurgents. The CIA and its expanding paramilitary forces are capable of kidnapping people of interest just about anywhere from rural Macedonia to the streets of Rome and Tripoli. For its many prisoners, it has set up (and dismantled) secret jails across the planet and on its naval vessels. It spends more on its military than the next most powerful 13 states combined. Add in the spending for its full national security state and it towers over any conceivable group of other nations.
In terms of advanced and unchallenged military power, there has been nothing like the U.S. armed forces since the Mongols swept across Eurasia. No wonder American presidents now regularly use phrases like "the finest fighting force the world has ever known" to describe it. By the logic of the situation, the planet should be a pushover for it. Lesser nations with far lesser forces have, in the past, controlled vast territories. And despite much discussion of American decline and the waning of its power in a "multi-polar" world, its ability to pulverize and destroy, kill and maim, blow up and kick down has only grown in this new century.
No other nation's military comes within a country mile of it. None has more than a handful of foreign bases. None has more than two aircraft carrier battle groups. No potential enemy has such a fleet of robotic planes. None has more than 60,000 special operations forces. Country by country, it's a hands-down no-contest. The Russian (once "Red") army is a shadow of its former self. The Europeans have not rearmed significantly. Japan's "self-defense" forces are powerful and slowly growing, but under the U.S. nuclear "umbrella." Although China, regularly identified as the next rising imperial state, is involved in a much-ballyhooed military build-up, with its one aircraft carrier (a retread from the days of the Soviet Union), it still remains only a regional power.
Despite this stunning global power equation, for more than a decade we have been given a lesson in what a military, no matter how overwhelming, can and (mostly) can't do in the twenty-first century, in what a military, no matter how staggeringly advanced, does and (mostly) does not translate into on the current version of planet Earth.
A Destabilization Machine
Let's start with what the U.S. can do. On this, the recent record is clear: it can destroy and destabilize. In fact, wherever U.S. military power has been applied in recent years, if there has been any lasting effect at all, it has been to destabilize whole regions.
Back in 2004, almost a year and a half after American troops had rolled into a Baghdad looted and in flames, Amr Mussa, the head of the Arab League, commented ominously, "The gates of hell are open in Iraq." Although for the Bush administration, the situation in that country was already devolving, to the extent that anyone paid attention to Mussa's description, it seemed over the top, even outrageous, as applied to American-occupied Iraq. Today, with the latest scientific estimate of invasion- and war-caused Iraqi deaths at a staggering 461,000, thousands more a year still dying there, and with Syria in flames, it seems something of an understatement.
It's now clear that George W. Bush and his top officials, fervent fundamentalists when it came to the power of U.S. military to alter, control, and dominate the Greater Middle East (and possibly the planet), did launch the radical transformation of the region. Their invasion of Iraq punched a hole through the heart of the Middle East, sparking a Sunni-Shiite civil war that has now spread catastrophically to Syria, taking more than 100,000 lives there. They helped turn the region into a churning sea of refugees, gave life and meaning to a previously nonexistent al-Qaeda in Iraq (and now a Syrian version of the same), and left the country drifting in a sea of roadside bombs and suicide bombers, and threatened, like other countries in the region, with the possibility of splitting apart.
And that's just a thumbnail sketch. It doesn't matter whether you're talking about destabilization in Afghanistan, where U.S. troops have been on the ground for almost 12 years and counting; Pakistan, where a CIA-run drone air campaign in its tribal borderlands has gone on for years as the country grew ever shakier and more violent; Yemen (ditto), as an outfit called al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula grew ever stronger; or Somalia, where Washington repeatedly backed proxy armies it had trained and financed, and supported outside incursions as an already destabilized country came apart at the seams and the influence of al-Shabab, an increasingly radical and violent insurgent Islamic group, began to seep across regional borders. The results have always been the same: destabilization.
Consider Libya where, no longer enamored with boots-on-the-ground interventions, President Obama sent in the Air Force and the drones in 2011 in a bloodless intervention (unless, of course, you were on the ground) that helped topple Muammar Qaddafi, the local autocrat and his secret-police-and-prisons regime, and launched a vigorous young democracy... oh, wait a moment, not quite. In fact, the result, which, unbelievably enough, came as a surprise to Washington, was an increasingly damaged country with a desperately weak central government, a territory controlled by a range of militias -- some Islamic extremist in nature -- an insurgency and war across the border in neighboring Mali (thanks to an influx of weaponry looted from Qaddafi's vast arsenals), a dead American ambassador, a country almost incapable of exporting its oil, and so on.
Libya was, in fact, so thoroughly destabilized, so lacking in central authority that Washington recently felt free to dispatch U.S. Special Operations forces onto the streets of its capital in broad daylight in an operation to snatch up a long-sought terrorist suspect, an act which was as "successful" as the toppling of the Qaddafi regime and, in a similar manner, further destabilized a government that Washington still theoretically backed. (Almost immediately afterward, the prime minister found himself briefly kidnapped by a militia unit as part of what might have been a coup attempt.)
Wonders of the Modern World
If the overwhelming military power at the command of Washington can destabilize whole regions of the planet, what, then, can't such military power do? On this, the record is no less clear and just as decisive. As every significant U.S. military action of this new century has indicated, the application of military force, no matter in what form, has proven incapable of achieving even Washington's most minimal goals of the moment.
Consider this one of the wonders of the modern world: pile up the military technology, pour money into your armed forces, outpace the rest of the world, and none of it adds up to a pile of beans when it comes to making that world act as you wish. Yes, in Iraq, to take an example, Saddam Hussein's regime was quickly "decapitated," thanks to an overwhelming display of power and muscle by the invading Americans. His state bureaucracy was dismantled, his army dismissed, an occupying authority established backed by foreign troops, soon ensconced on huge multibillion-dollar military bases meant to be garrisoned for generations, and a suitably "friendly" local government installed.
And that's where the Bush administration's dreams ended in the rubble created by a set of poorly armed minority insurgencies, terrorism, and a brutal ethnic/religious civil war. In the end, almost nine years after the invasion and despite the fact that the Obama administration and the Pentagon were eager to keep U.S. troops stationed there in some capacity, a relatively weak central government refused, and they departed, the last representatives of the greatest power on the planet slipping away in the dead of night. Left behind among the ruins of historic ziggurats were the "ghost towns" and stripped or looted U.S. bases that were to be our monuments in Iraq.
Today, under even more extraordinary circumstances, a similar process seems to be playing itself out in Afghanistan -- another spectacle of our moment that should amaze us. After almost 12 years there, finding itself incapable of suppressing a minority insurgency, Washington is slowly withdrawing its combat troops, but wants to leave behind on the giant bases we've built perhaps 10,000 "trainers" for the Afghan military and some Special Operations forces to continue the hunt for al-Qaeda and other terror types.
For the planet's sole superpower, this, of all things, should be a slam dunk. At least the Iraqi government had a certain strength of its own (and the country's oil wealth to back it up). If there is a government on Earth that qualifies for the term "puppet," it should be the Afghan one of President Hamid Karzai. After all, at least 80% (and possibly 90%) of that government's expenses are covered by the U.S. and its allies, and its security forces are considered incapable of carrying on the fight against the Taliban and other insurgent outfits without U.S. support and aid. If Washington were to withdraw totally (including its financial support), it's hard to imagine that any successor to the Karzai government would last long.
How, then, to explain the fact that Karzai has refused to sign a future bilateral security pact long in the process of being hammered out? Instead, he recently denounced U.S. actions in Afghanistan, as he had repeatedly done in the past, claimed that he simply would not ink the agreement, and began bargaining with U.S. officials as if he were the leader of the planet's other superpower.
A frustrated Washington had to dispatch Secretary of State John Kerry on a sudden mission to Kabul for some top-level face-to-face negotiations. The result, a reported 24-hour marathon of talks and meetings, was hailed as a success: problem(s) solved. Oops, all but one. As it turned out, it was the very same one on which the continued U.S. military presence in Iraq stumbled -- Washington's demand for legal immunity from local law for its troops. In the end, Kerry flew out without an assured agreement.
Making Sense of War in the Twenty-First Century
Whether the U.S. military does or doesn't last a few more years in Afghanistan, the blunt fact is this: the president of one of the poorest and weakest countries on the planet, himself relatively powerless, is essentially dictating terms to Washington -- and who's to say that, in the end, as in Iraq, U.S. troops won't be forced to leave there as well?
Once again, military strength has not carried the day. Yet military power, advanced weaponry, force, and destruction as tools of policy, as ways to create a world in your own image or to your own taste, have worked plenty well in the past. Ask those Mongols, or the European imperial powers from Spain in the sixteenth century to Britain in the nineteenth century, which took their empires by force and successfully maintained them over long periods.
What planet are we now on? Why is it that military power, the mightiest imaginable, can't overcome, pacify, or simply destroy weak powers, less than impressive insurgency movements, or the ragged groups of (often tribal) peoples we label as "terrorists"? Why is such military power no longer transformative or even reasonably effective? Is it, to reach for an analogy, like antibiotics? If used for too long in too many situations, does a kind of immunity build up against it?
Let's be clear here: such a military remains a powerful potential instrument of destruction, death, and destabilization. For all we know -- it's not something we've seen anything of in these years -- it might also be a powerful instrument for genuine defense. But if recent history is any guide, what it clearly cannot be in the twenty-first century is a policymaking instrument, a means of altering the world to fit a scheme developed in Washington. The planet itself and people just about anywhere on it seem increasingly resistant in ways that take the military off the table as an effective superpower instrument of state.
Washington's military plans and tactics since 9/11 have been a spectacular train wreck. When you look back, counterinsurgency doctrine, resuscitated from the ashes of America's defeat in Vietnam, is once again on the scrap heap of history. (Who today even remembers its key organizing phrase -- "clear, hold, and build" -- which now looks like the punch line for some malign joke?) "Surges," once hailed as brilliant military strategy, have already disappeared into the mists. "Nation-building," once a term of tradecraft in Washington, is in the doghouse. "Boots on the ground," of which the U.S. had enormous numbers and still has 51,000 in Afghanistan, are now a no-no. The American public is, everyone universally agrees, "exhausted" with war. Major American armies arriving to fight anywhere on the Eurasian continent in the foreseeable future? Don't count on it.
But lessons learned from the collapse of war policy? Don't count on that, either. It's clear enough that Washington still can't fully absorb what's happened. Its faith in war remains remarkably unbroken in a century in which military power has become the American political equivalent of a state religion. Our leaders are still high on the counterterrorism wars of the future, even as they drown in their military efforts of the present. Their urge is still to rejigger and reimagine what a deliverable military solution would be.
Now the message is: skip those boots en masse -- in fact, cut down on their numbers in the age of the sequester -- and go for the counterterrorism package. No more spilling of (American) blood. Get the "bad guys," one or a few at a time, using the president's private army, the Special Operations forces, or his private air force, the CIA's drones. Build new barebones micro-bases globally. Move those aircraft carrier battle groups off the coast of whatever country you want to intimidate.
It's clear we're entering a new period in terms of American war making. Call it the era of tiny wars, or micro-conflicts, especially in the tribal backlands of the planet.
So something is indeed changing in response to military failure, but what's not changing is Washington's preference for war as the option of choice, often of first resort. What's not changing is the thought that, if you can just get your strategy and tactics readjusted correctly, force will work. (Recently, Washington was only saved from plunging into another predictable military disaster in Syria by an offhand comment of Secretary of State John Kerry and the timely intervention of Russian President Vladimir Putin.)
What our leaders don't get is the most basic, practical fact of our moment: war simply doesn't work, not big, not micro -- not for Washington. A superpower at war in the distant reaches of this planet is no longer a superpower ascendant but one with problems.
The U.S. military may be a destabilization machine. It may be a blowback machine. What it's not is a policymaking or enforcement machine.
http://www.tomdispatch.com/archive/175368/When
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