The Desperate Plight of a Declining Superpower

By Michael T. Klare, TomDispatch

28 May 15

 

ake a look around the world and it’s hard not to conclude that the United States is a superpower in decline. Whether in Europe, Asia, or the Middle East, aspiring powers are flexing their muscles, ignoring Washington’s dictates, or actively combating them. Russia refuses to curtail its support for armed separatists in Ukraine; China refuses to abandon its base-building endeavors in the South China Sea; Saudi Arabia refuses to endorse the U.S.-brokered nuclear deal with Iran; the Islamic State movement (ISIS) refuses to capitulate in the face of U.S. airpower. What is a declining superpower supposed to do in the face of such defiance?

This is no small matter. For decades, being a superpower has been the defining characteristic of American identity. The embrace of global supremacy began after World War II when the United States assumed responsibility for resisting Soviet expansionism around the world; it persisted through the Cold War era and only grew after the implosion of the Soviet Union, when the U.S. assumed sole responsibility for combating a whole new array of international threats. As General Colin Powell famously exclaimed in the final days of the Soviet era, “We have to put a shingle outside our door saying, ‘Superpower Lives Here,’ no matter what the Soviets do, even if they evacuate from Eastern Europe.”

Imperial Overstretch Hits Washington

Strategically, in the Cold War years, Washington’s power brokers assumed that there would always be two superpowers perpetually battling for world dominance.  In the wake of the utterly unexpected Soviet collapse, American strategists began to envision a world of just one, of a “sole superpower” (aka Rome on the Potomac). In line with this new outlook, the administration of George H.W. Bush soon adopted a long-range plan intended to preserve that status indefinitely. Known as the Defense Planning Guidance for Fiscal Years 1994-99, it declared: “Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival, either on the territory of the former Soviet Union or elsewhere, that poses a threat on the order of that posed formerly by the Soviet Union.”

H.W.’s son, then the governor of Texas, articulated a similar vision of a globally encompassing Pax Americana when campaigning for president in 1999. If elected, he told military cadets at the Citadel in Charleston, his top goal would be “to take advantage of a tremendous opportunity -- given few nations in history -- to extend the current peace into the far realm of the future. A chance to project America’s peaceful influence not just across the world, but across the years.”

For Bush, of course, “extending the peace” would turn out to mean invading Iraq and igniting a devastating regional conflagration that only continues to grow and spread to this day. Even after it began, he did not doubt -- nor (despite the reputed wisdom offered by hindsight) does he today -- that this was the price that had to be paid for the U.S. to retain its vaunted status as the world’s sole superpower.

The problem, as many mainstream observers now acknowledge, is that such a strategy aimed at perpetuating U.S. global supremacy at all costs was always destined to result in what Yale historian Paul Kennedy, in his classic book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, unforgettably termed “imperial overstretch.” As he presciently wrote in that 1987 study, it would arise from a situation in which “the sum total of the United States’ global interests and obligations is… far larger than the country’s power to defend all of them simultaneously.”

Indeed, Washington finds itself in exactly that dilemma today. What’s curious, however, is just how quickly such overstretch engulfed a country that, barely a decade ago, was being hailed as the planet’s first “hyperpower,” a status even more exalted than superpower. But that was before George W.’s miscalculation in Iraq and other missteps left the U.S. to face a war-ravaged Middle East with an exhausted military and a depleted treasury. At the same time, major and regional powers like China, India, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey have been building up their economic and military capabilities and, recognizing the weakness that accompanies imperial overstretch, are beginning to challenge U.S. dominance in many areas of the globe. The Obama administration has been trying, in one fashion or another, to respond in all of those areas -- among them Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and the South China Sea -- but without, it turns out, the capacity to prevail in any of them.

Nonetheless, despite a range of setbacks, no one in Washington’s power elite -- Senators Rand Paul and Bernie Sanders being the exceptions that prove the rule -- seems to have the slightest urge to abandon the role of sole superpower or even to back off it in any significant way. President Obama, who is clearly all too aware of the country’s strategic limitations, has been typical in his unwillingness to retreat from such a supremacist vision. “The United States is and remains the one indispensable nation,” he told graduating cadets at West Point in May 2014. “That has been true for the century past and it will be true for the century to come.”

How, then, to reconcile the reality of superpower overreach and decline with an unbending commitment to global supremacy?

The first of two approaches to this conundrum in Washington might be thought of as a high-wire circus act.  It involves the constant juggling of America’s capabilities and commitments, with its limited resources (largely of a military nature) being rushed relatively fruitlessly from one place to another in response to unfolding crises, even as attempts are made to avoid yet more and deeper entanglements. This, in practice, has been the strategy pursued by the current administration.  Call it the Obama Doctrine.

After concluding, for instance, that China had taken advantage of U.S. entanglement in Iraq and Afghanistan to advance its own strategic interests in Southeast Asia, Obama and his top advisers decided to downgrade the U.S. presence in the Middle East and free up resources for a more robust one in the western Pacific.  Announcing this shift in 2011 -- it would first be called a “pivot to Asia” and then a “rebalancing” there -- the president made no secret of the juggling act involved.

“After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly, in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the vast potential of the Asia Pacific region,” he told members of the Australian Parliament that November.  “As we end today’s wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority.  As a result, reductions in U.S. defense spending will not -- I repeat, will not -- come at the expense of the Asia Pacific.”

Then, of course, the new Islamic State launched its offensive in Iraq in June 2014 and the American-trained army there collapsed with the loss of four northern cities. Videoed beheadings of American hostages followed, along with a looming threat to the U.S.-backed regime in Baghdad. Once again, President Obama found himself pivoting -- this time sending thousands of U.S. military advisers back to that country, putting American air power into its skies, and laying the groundwork for another major conflict there.

Meanwhile, Republican critics of the president, who claim he’s doing too little in a losing effort in Iraq (and Syria), have also taken him to task for not doing enough to implement the pivot to Asia. In reality, as his juggling act that satisfies no one continues in Iraq and the Pacific, he’s had a hard time finding the wherewithal to effectively confront Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, the various militias fighting for power in fragmenting Libya, and so on.

The Party of Utter Denialism

Clearly, in the face of multiplying threats, juggling has not proven to be a viable strategy.  Sooner or later, the “balls” will simply go flying and the whole system will threaten to fall apart. But however risky juggling may prove, it is not nearly as dangerous as the other strategic response to superpower decline in Washington: utter denial.

For those who adhere to this outlook, it’s not America’s global stature that’s eroding, but its will -- that is, its willingness to talk and act tough. If Washington were simply to speak more loudly, so this argument goes, and brandish bigger sticks, all these challenges would simply melt away. Of course, such an approach can only work if you’re prepared to back up your threats with actual force, or “hard power,” as some like to call it.

Among the most vocal of those touting this line is Senator John McCain, the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a persistent critic of President Obama. “For five years, Americans have been told that ‘the tide of war is receding,’ that we can pull back from the world at little cost to our interests and values,” he typically wrote in March 2014 in a New York Times op-ed. “This has fed a perception that the United States is weak, and to people like Mr. Putin, weakness is provocative.” The only way to prevent aggressive behavior by Russia and other adversaries, he stated, is “to restore the credibility of the United States as a world leader.” This means, among other things, arming the Ukrainians and anti-Assad Syrians, bolstering the NATO presence in Eastern Europe, combating “the larger strategic challenge that Iran poses,” and playing a “more robust” role (think: more “boots” on more ground) in the war against ISIS.

Above all, of course, it means a willingness to employ military force. “When aggressive rulers or violent fanatics threaten our ideals, our interests, our allies, and us,” he declared last November, “what ultimately makes the difference… is the capability, credibility, and global reach of American hard power.”

A similar approach -- in some cases even more bellicose -- is being articulated by the bevy of Republican candidates now in the race for president, Rand Paul again excepted. At a recent “Freedom Summit” in the early primary state of South Carolina, the various contenders sought to out-hard-power each other. Florida Senator Marco Rubio was loudly cheered for promising to make the U.S. “the strongest military power in the world.” Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker received a standing ovation for pledging to further escalate the war on international terrorists: “I want a leader who is willing to take the fight to them before they take the fight to us.” 

In this overheated environment, the 2016 presidential campaign is certain to be dominated by calls for increased military spending, a tougher stance toward Moscow and Beijing, and an expanded military presence in the Middle East. Whatever her personal views, Hillary Clinton, the presumed Democratic candidate, will be forced to demonstrate her backbone by embracing similar positions. In other words, whoever enters the Oval Office in January 2017 will be expected to wield a far bigger stick on a significantly less stable planet. As a result, despite the last decade and a half of interventionary disasters, we’re likely to see an even more interventionist foreign policy with an even greater impulse to use military force.

However initially gratifying such a stance is likely to prove for John McCain and the growing body of war hawks in Congress, it will undoubtedly prove disastrous in practice. Anyone who believes that the clock can now be turned back to 2002, when U.S. strength was at its zenith and the Iraq invasion had not yet depleted American wealth and vigor, is undoubtedly suffering from delusional thinking. China is far more powerful than it was 13 years ago, Russia has largely recovered from its post-Cold War slump, Iran has replaced the U.S. as the dominant foreign actor in Iraq, and other powers have acquired significantly greater freedom of action in an unsettled world. Under these circumstances, aggressive muscle-flexing in Washington is likely to result only in calamity or humiliation.

Time to Stop Pretending

Back, then, to our original question: What is a declining superpower supposed to do in the face of this predicament?

Anywhere but in Washington, the obvious answer would for it to stop pretending to be what it’s not. The first step in any 12-step imperial-overstretch recovery program would involve accepting the fact that American power is limited and global rule an impossible fantasy. Accepted as well would have to be this obvious reality: like it or not, the U.S. shares the planet with a coterie of other major powers -- none as strong as we are, but none so weak as to be intimidated by the threat of U.S. military intervention. Having absorbed a more realistic assessment of American power, Washington would then have to focus on how exactly to cohabit with such powers -- Russia, China, and Iran among them -- and manage its differences with them without igniting yet more disastrous regional firestorms. 

If strategic juggling and massive denial were not so embedded in the political life of this country’s “war capital,” this would not be an impossibly difficult strategy to pursue, as others have suggested. In 2010, for example, Christopher Layne of the George H.W. Bush School at Texas A&M argued in the American Conservative that the U.S. could no longer sustain its global superpower status and, “rather than having this adjustment forced upon it suddenly by a major crisis… should get ahead of the curve by shifting its position in a gradual, orderly fashion.” Layne and others have spelled out what this might entail: fewer military entanglements abroad, a diminishing urge to garrison the planet, reduced military spending, greater reliance on allies, more funds to use at home in rebuilding the crumbling infrastructure of a divided society, and a diminished military footprint in the Middle East.

But for any of this to happen, American policymakers would first have to abandon the pretense that the United States remains the sole global superpower -- and that may be too bitter a pill for the present American psyche (and for the political aspirations of certain Republican candidates) to swallow. From such denialism, it’s already clear, will only come further ill-conceived military adventures abroad and, sooner or later, under far grimmer circumstances, an American reckoning with reality.

What Europe and the IMF Are Doing to Greece: A First-Hand Look

By Steve Weissman, Reader Supported News

28 May 15

 

t the moment, we see only the dark face of Europe,” said Leonidas Fotinos. “They want to buy Greece cheap.”

A large, young-looking man in his early 50s, Leonidas studied economics at university and was now running a small tour business on the historic Aegean island of Milos. He could hardly have been more removed from the street protests and ideological struggles in Athens, but he had strong views on how the conflict between Greece and its foreign creditors was uprooting the lives of ordinary Greeks.

The only wealth most Greeks had was in their own family property, he explained in his poetic English. He himself had a property on the outskirts of Athens. Before the global economic crisis, it had been valued at €800,000, against which he could borrow at a bank. Now it was worth maybe €250,000 – if he could find someone to buy it or a bank willing and able to lend.

“It’s not just private property,” he said. The EU and IMF were also insisting that Greece sell its ports and other national assets. “That’s not investment,” he said. “That’s just privatization.”

All this from a small player in the one big Greek industry that does not stand directly in the line of fire, at least not yet. “Tourism is surviving,” he smiled. “Prices have held steady for the last three years, which makes Greece seem an attractive destination for foreigners.”

This was one of the questions that had brought my wife Anna and I on a journalistic visit to Greece. In recent years, tourism has employed 20% of the Greek people and provided an even higher percentage of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Could the industry continue to provide hope to the struggling Greeks? And how might increasing dependence on tourism impact their country? Having lived on Florida’s West Coast, worked together on the now defunct Boaters Monthly and Fishermen’s Environmental Fund, and made visits to Cuba in 1997-1998, we knew all too well how too many tourists could become a destructive Trojan Horse.

Dragging ourselves to the Charles de Gaulle Airport near Paris at 3:15 in the morning for a budget flight to Greece, we flew directly to the volcanic island of Santorini, where we boarded the Aegean Lady 2 – a 115-foot replica of a traditional wooden fishing trawler, or caïque – to visit several of the small islands in the Cyclades. We began our voyage on May 10, in the company of a wonderfully hospitable Greek crew, four retired French couples we were meeting for the first time, and Alexandros, a conscientious French-speaking organizer from Heliades, the company that sold us the package.

Aegean Lady 2. (photo: Steve Weissman)

What a delightful way to get back to some first-hand reporting! Or so I thought until the Force 7 Meltemi winds from the north clashed with a southerly blow from Africa, turning the deep blue sea into raging white waves crashing against each other. We were not in a storm, but the chaotic wind and waves rocked the sturdy boat in all directions, sending the lounge furniture flying and hurling me onto the floor, where Anna feared I had cracked open my head. In many years of sailing in the shallow, often choppy Gulf of Mexico, I had never experienced anything quite so stomach-churning.

Finding safe harbor in Milos, our thoroughly shaken group hired Leonidas as our guide and he dazzled us with sun-bleached white lava fields by the sea, an ancient amphitheater now being restored for live performances of classic Greek drama, the catacombs where the island’s first-to-fifth century Christians buried their dead, and the nearby site from which in the early 1820s French officials begged, bought, or stole the ancient Greek sculpture of the disarmed Aphrodite of Milos, which now brings tourists to the Louvre in Paris as the Latinized Venus de Milo.

Along with Greece’s beaches and blazing sun, crystal clear water, fresh fish, and grandmotherly cooking, these are the stock in trade of a thriving tourist industry that could become even stronger whether or not Europe forces the country out of the Euro. But for Anna and me, the high point came when Leonidas took us to the island’s capital, Plaka, an ancient town with white-washed buildings perched near the top of a volcanic hill. The view of the Gulf of Milos was panoramic, and we felt unbelievably tranquil, in part because the winding alleys surrounding us were much too narrow to allow any cars.

“Sometimes I come here at midnight after work,” Leonidas told me in a quiet aside. “I find it spiritual.” I did not think he meant that in a religious sense, but did not know him well enough to ask. Later he got the Greek Orthodox priest to give him the keys to the main church and he took us inside. It was small and crammed full of religious paintings, icons, and art objects, endless gold leaf, and other all-too-human excesses.

Except for the church, which Anna and I found way over-the-top, Plaka deeply moved us as it did Leonidas. We even liked a strange counterpoint right in the center – the rude ruin of an old house with its whitewash and plaster gone and its wretched stone walls exposed. “Is it for sale?” I asked. “Yes,” said Leonidas sadly, not yet knowing of our journalistic quest. “Given the economic crisis, you can find a lot of bargains.”

That evening, in his office near the port, Leonidas opened up in a way I had not expected. He had formerly voted for ecological parties and the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) of the former prime minister Georgios Papandreou, whom he came to detest for selling out to the Europeans. “He sold us like oranges,” said Leonidas. The tour guide and small businessman now backed Alexis Tsipris and his Syriza, a disputatious coalition within a coalition government that includes the right-wing and openly anti-Semitic Independent Greeks. Leonidas saw Syriza less as a leftist party and more as a nationalist reflection of “the real feeling of the Greeks.”

Why do we see no political posters or other signs of mass mobilization, I asked. “There’s no need,” he said. Syriza speaks “the common language of quiet resistance.”

Leonidas especially liked Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, whom he saw as one of the few people able to come up with an economic and political alternative, both for Greece and for the rest of the continent. “Europe just does not want to hear him.” Too much Marx or too much Keynes, I wondered aloud. Leonidas was not sure, but we continue to pursue the question by email.

As a young man during World War II, his father had fought against the German and Italian occupiers, said Leonidas. Now, he felt, he and today’s Greeks would likely need to do the same.

A rock formation in the Aegean Sea. (photo: Steve Weissman)

Cruising to other islands, I put some of the same questions to Captain Stavros, an old charmer in his late 70s who piloted big ships in Asia and around the world and ran a small shipping company closer to home. He built the Aegean Lady 2, and owns it and a sister ship that does the same kind of island hopping. He now tries – and occasionally fails – to leave the hands-on skippering to a 27-year-old wunderkind named Captain Ioannis, who handled the boat with a precision I had rarely seen. Stavros and his wife Maria live on board. She cooked our mid-day feasts even in the worst of seas, while he played host to what was very much a mom-and-pop cruise.

Describing himself as a political centrist, Stavros admitted that he had generally leaned toward Papandreou and his center-left Socialists. He also gave the previous center-right government of Konstantinos Karamanlis credit for creating some economic growth, and he felt that Syriza had made matters worse by promising people far more than they could ever deliver. But even Stavros felt angered by the Europeans, and especially the Germans, for pushing Greece into a corner. He also mentioned that his fuel costs had doubled in recent years and that Maria was having trouble getting her pension.

In a way, Stavros represented what was best and worst about his country. He treated his small crew as family, and claimed to pay them far beyond minimum wage. “No one could live on that,” he said. In return, his crew gave their all, doing whatever needed to be done, including schmoozing with us, mostly in English, picking us up off the floor, and rushing from wherever they were to steady us whenever we looked likely to stumble on the wobbly gangplank or in the chaotic seas. Stavros had even gone out of his way to give a summer job to the daughter of an old family friend, a classically beautiful young woman named Artemis who was going to university in Vienna and was fluent, funny, and always helpful in both English and German.

Such family feelings seemed well-suited to Stavros’s two-ship cruising business. But they held back the growth, fairness, and flexibility of large enterprises, and became even more destructive in public life. According to no less than Varoufakis, family ties and “clientelism” had given Greece too much corruption and rotten government and needed to be removed if the country was ever to become a modern, democratic nation.

Sadly, even Syriza seems to have succumbed to awarding public office to their closest and most trusted associates. “We have to see our own defects,” said Leonidas. “But we can’t break clientelism in a month or two.”

Street art from an Aegean island in the Cyclades. (photo: Steve Weissman)

On our last two days, we tied up at the old port of Santorini, which sits in what had been the crater of the volcano that destroyed much of the island over three-and-a-half thousand years ago. What the eruption left has now become a tourist hot spot. Two large cruise ships were anchored in the harbor. A sleek oligarch-style motor yacht was docked next to us, and visitors from all over the world – including many prosperous looking Chinese, both young and old – clogged the winding lanes, shops, restaurants, and hotels along the crater’s edge, or caldera. I had been here for a conference before the global economic crash, and the island now seemed far busier than I remembered – and far more of a schlocky tourist trap. Still, the punters were coming in droves and the money was pouring in.

Will this continue if the Europeans force Greece to the wall? It’s far from certain, as we saw waiting for our plane back to Paris. The shabby little airport was trying to service flights to cities all over Europe and beyond, and the polyglot crowd was growing increasingly agitated as departure times came and went. The staff seemed unable to move so many of us through check-in and security and onto our flights in any timely way. Slowly, the reason became clear. With all the public sector cuts that the austerity-minded EU and IMF had forced on Greece, only three cops, one baggage scanner, and one metal detector gate were not nearly enough to handle all the tourists heading home from our wonderful sun-filled stay. It simply makes no sense.

Photographs by Steve and Anna Weissman. Hat tip to my old partner in crime Ed Harriman for steering us toward the story.

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A veteran of the Berkeley Free Speech Movement and the New Left monthly Ramparts, Steve Weissman lived for many years in London, working as a magazine writer and television producer. He now lives and works in France, where he is researching a new book, "Big Money and the Corporate State: How Global Banks, Corporations, and Speculators Rule and How to Nonviolently Break Their Hold."

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.