Donald Trump Can Win

By Scott Galindez, Reader Supported News

26 September 16

ou will probably read this after the most watched debate ever. Donald Trump will likely have uttered the words “believe me” a number of times. Trump says those words when he is lying. They are his tell; they signal he is bluffing.

Three weeks ago, I and most of the political analysts thought this race was over. Of course, that would have been a bad thing for the media, who want a close race to increase ratings and advertising revenue.

Over the past 3 weeks, Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers have been dropping steadily in battleground states. If these polls are accurate, Donald Trump could be our president-elect when we wake up November 9th.

I still think the organizational advantage that Clinton has will prevail. I am in a battleground state, and the Iowa combined campaign calls me regularly. It’s the top of the ticket that is driving the ground game. The down-ticket candidates are not competitive in Iowa. I rarely see Trump ads, while Hillary has a strong presence on the airways. There are some messages that are positive, but most are anti-Trump, and so far they are not working as planned.

Trump’s numbers are not rising. Instead, voters are moving from Clinton to Gary Johnson. Gary Johnson will not be on the stage in any of the debates. He will not win a single state in this election. Johnson may just be the Ross Perot of this election and take enough votes from one of the candidates to influence the result. Without Perot, Bill Clinton might not have become president. Gary Johnson, however, seems to be taking more from Hillary Clinton than he is taking from Donald Trump.

How could that be? The Libertarian Party wants to decimate social programs. The Libertarian platform calls for eliminating Social Security and Medicare. How could any Democrat support that? I think Gary Johnson and Jill Stein have benefited from their ability to define themselves. Voters who don’t want either Clinton or Trump are voting against the two party system and haven’t really taken a close look at either candidate.

Of course that cuts both ways. The never-Trumpers are moving to Johnson too. That happened early on, though. The tightening of the race is the result of millennials flocking to Johnson. One third of voters under 45 are supporting either Johnson or Stein. Most of them are currently in the Johnson camp. The never-Trumpers are fueling Johnson’s rise with PAC money running commercials for the candidate. I see more Johnson/Weld ads than I see Trump/Pence commercials.

I know that many of you are in the Stein camp, and I believe she would be a better president than Hillary Clinton. I just don’t think enough people even know who she is. It is the television advertising that is putting Johnson ahead of her. With no counter to the advertising, Johnson is able to peel support away from both Clinton and Trump.

Okay, Johnson supports legalization of weed. We could all numb the pain if he were successful at making that happen. Let’s face it though, he won’t win, he will only play spoiler. I urge you to read the Libertarian Party platform and compare it to the Democratic Party platform before you decide that he is a better choice than Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton will be president. If you don’t want Donald Trump, don’t throw your vote away.

Scott Galindez attended Syracuse University, where he first became politically active. The writings of El Salvador's slain archbishop Oscar Romero and the on-campus South Africa divestment movement converted him from a Reagan supporter to an activist for Peace and Justice. Over the years he has been influenced by the likes of Philip Berrigan, William Thomas, Mitch Snyder, Don White, Lisa Fithian, and Paul Wellstone. Scott met Marc Ash while organizing counterinaugural events after George W. Bush's first stolen election. Scott will be spending a year covering the presidential election from Iowa.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.