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"New polls released in Kentucky, Nevada and California show that Democrats are making a big comeback in each state, and the tide may be turning against the GOP."

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) speaks during a news conference. (photo: Getty Images)
Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) speaks during a news conference. (photo: Getty Images)


Polls Reveal a Surge of Support for Democrats

By Jason Easley, Politics USA

27 September 10

 

5 weeks out polls reveal a surge of support for Democrats.

ew polls released in Kentucky, Nevada, and California show that Democrats are making a big comeback in each state, and the tide may be turning against the GOP. In Kentucky Rand Paul has blown a 15 point lead in less than a month. In Nevada, Harry Reid is up by 5 points on Sharron Angle, and in California the Democrats in both the gubernatorial and the Senate races now lead.

The most interesting case is in Kentucky where Rand Paul has seen a 15 point lead evaporate in less than three weeks. During the first week of September, Paul lead state attorney general Jack Conway 55%-40%, in the Courier-Journal/WHAS 11 Bluegrass Poll, but that lead has complete vanished as Paul still leads 49%-47% with 4% undecided. The race is now within the margin of error, which means that it is a dead heat. What appears to have happened is that women are now tuning in and paying attention, and coming home to the Democrats. In the earlier September poll, Conway only had a 3 point lead with women, but that lead has since ballooned to 16 points. Paul has also seen his lead over Conway drop by 16 points among those who make $50,000 or more.

In Nevada, a Public Opinion Strategies Poll of registered voters shows Harry Reid leading Sharron Angle 45%-40%. Both Reid and Angle were known by 98% of those surveyed, and what seems to be killing Angle is a low favorable rating. Both Reid and Angle have high unfavorable ratings of 51% and 52% respectively, but the difference between the two candidates is that Sharron Angle has 38% favorable rating compared to 44% favorable rating for Reid. If Republicans would have run a candidate that voters in Nevada could like, Reid would probably be well on his way to defeat, but as it stands if Reid wins by 5-6 points, the GOP will have the Tea Party to thank for costing them another Senate seat.

In California, a new LA Times/USC survey has found that both well known and wealthy Republican candidates for senator and governor are faltering. The underfunded, but well known, Jerry Brown is now leading Meg Whitman 49%-44%. While Sen. Barbara Boxer has opened up an eight point lead on her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, 51%-43%. Both of the GOP candidates have the same problem. Voters don't like them. Meg Whitman has spent $119 million trying to become the next governor, yet she has only a 33% favorable rating. Her unfavorable rating is 44%. In comparison, her opponent Democrat Jerry Brown has 40% approval rating and 41% disapproval rating.

Meg Whitman's favorable numbers are bad, but Carly Fiorina's are worse. While her unfavorable rating is a relatively low 29%, her favorable rating is a miserable 24%. In contrast, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has 44% favorable rating, and a 41% unfavorable rating. Fiorina's biggest problem though is the popularity of Barack Obama. The president enjoys a 63% favorable rating in the state, and Fiorina's promise to work against Obama's agenda may have doomed her with the voters, as the survey of registered voters discovered that 56% of them wanted a senator who would support President Obama.

The polls are not only tightening because it is October and people are starting to pay attention, but there is something else at work here. In their quest for ideological purity, Republicans have nominated some very unlikable candidates, and in state after state the more voters see and hear the Teapublican candidates, the less they like them. This is why the Teapublicans avoid debating their opponents and the media. The more people find out about these candidates, the better the Democrats look.

While it is still too early to say definitively what will happen in November, since Obama's election, Republicans have struggled both on issues like healthcare reform, and in special elections with the problem of peaking too early, fading late, and being unable to close the deal with voters and the public. The Democratic strategy this year is to spend late in the cycle to capitalize on the GOP fade.

What looked like a bloodbath for the Democrats is starting to shape up to be a traditional midterm election during a recession. It is very possible that the GOP will end up blowing their chance at a historic victory, because their party's radical fringe took over and nominated a slate of unelectable candidates. Even though the national media has not caught on yet, and would be unlikely to change their narrative if they did, this election is starting to turn, and there should be no surprise if the Democrats manage to do okay on Election Night.

 

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+31 # Georgeatwhy 2010-09-27 11:25
I LOVE the Tea Party. Let those idiots forever rule the Republican Party!
 
 
+17 # Barb B 2010-09-27 11:57
HIP HIP HORRAY!!!
 
 
+15 # Todd Williams 2010-09-27 12:19
As an Ohioan, I am extremely worried about Kasich beating Strickland for governor and Portman defeating Fisher for senate. This is disturbing and for the life of me, I can't figure why this would happen. Strickland has been a great governor and has brought a lot of jobs to Ohio. However, the Tea Party and the GOP have targeted Ohio with big money to sway this election and it appears to be working. I only hope the threat of these two characters will be enough to get Ohio Dems and independents to the polls.
 
 
+6 # Ralph Averill 2010-09-27 19:50
Your post would be an excellent letter to the editor of your local paper. Send it in as written!
 
 
+17 # ER444 2010-09-27 12:19
I don't think the Reps would ever have a chance if the Dems would just get out and vote. The difference between the parties has always been clear, one of which is that he extreme right wing will not sit home and watch TV on election day. The Democratic Party needs to motivate, not just the middle class but also the poorer Americans who will be screwed if the Reps win. Unfortunately for whatever reason, these people don't vote in high numbers. GET THE VOTE OUT !!!
 
 
+18 # Pat in Idaho 2010-09-27 12:21
This is great news! We have to keep up our enthusiasm and be sure to VOTE Dem on election day!! The alternatives are so much worse!
 
 
+13 # MylesJ 2010-09-27 12:38
I've disagree with the way Obama has gone after many things. I think he was very smart to keep his powder dry until closer to the election. GOP is playing checkers and Obama is playing GO.
 
 
+10 # LLoyd Atkinson 2010-09-27 12:46
I would recommend a Sept. 24 article written by Ralph Nader entitled "Why Say Yes, To The Party of No?" I just hope American voters are not so fed up with both parties that too many will stay home in November. Hopefully the thought of more Republicans will be enough motivation.
 
 
+13 # Missy 2010-09-27 12:54
Of course the answer is to vote! we far outnumber them and if all the Dems vote we are sure of a win!!Each of us should talk to our friends and neighbors and volunteer to take the ones who need assistance to the polls. We cannot strees enough the importance of this election. Just look at what the opposition will do if they win. GET OUT AND VOTE!!
 
 
+5 # m 2010-09-27 12:57
Hope Springs Eternal...

If it ends up as a voting day truth, I can only hope that the Democratic Party's Disconnect, Misreading of Polls, Arrogance Towards Their National Base, Fear Of Conservative Media's Divisive Fear Mongering Nonsense.., and especially their Amazing Spinelessness-- - ALL vanish in the puff of some undeserved, but better them-than-not Election Day Miracle...
 
 
+13 # michelle 2010-09-27 13:22
Let's hope Wisconsin follows suit and sends Feingold back to the senate too. Some of these far right republicans are very scary with their anti-government mantra. If we can keep all of the progressives maybe it will send a message. I notice Blanche Lincoln is not going to win in Arkansas so maybe that will serve as a message to the other blue dogs.
I'm holding my breath out here in California. The Koch brothers are pooring cash into Fiorina's campaign. She is the lovely lady who shipped the intel jobs to China and spied on employees.
 
 
+17 # Terry Johnson 2010-09-27 13:45
If progressives, liberals, Democrats or whatever we want to be called really want effective and permanent change we have to keep the House and the Senate in 2010. The economy will be much improved in 2012, the US out of Afghanistan and the Party of NO will still be in disarray as the extreme Right, FOX and Rush tear it apart. Democrats will see more elected Senators - not less - in 2012 which will give the President a much stronger hand to play than ever. Everyone who reads this has to vote and get others out to vote. THIS VOTE IS PERHAPS THE MOST IMPORTANT VOTE OF OUR LIFETIME - 2008 was only the preamble!!
 
 
+9 # michelle 2010-09-27 15:00
It is the MOST IMPORTANT VOTE OF OUR LIFETIME if we are to reverse the shift to the right. I'm going down to Boxer's headquarters and volunteer. All of you can work on a campaign doing something. We must prove 'sanity' and knowledge trump corporate money. That's how we keep power in the hands of the people. We may not have what we want but baby steps in the progressive direction are much better than a great leap backwards. I join all the others saying, Yes We Will. You know that we can.
 
 
+9 # genierae 2010-09-27 14:28
I live in Ohio, and I too cannot believe that Strickland is behind in the polls. This doesn't make sense, since he has been a wonderful governor. I think that a lot of these polls are rigged to make Republicans look good, so that voters will want to vote for the most popular candidate. I also hope that someone is keeping an eye on the voting machines. I don't put anything past the Republicans.
 
 
+11 # RonTruth 2010-09-27 18:18
I was seriously starting to wonder what had happened to peoples' memory capacities. I think one additional factor is that the Teaparty followers plus the Independent voters who, only a week or two ago looked like they were going to vote FOR what they voted against less than two years ago.

Now, I think they are starting to see that, A. It was the Republican Party that gave us the economic meltdown, lock, stock and barrel. And they are starting to see that it was politically motivated Republican refusal to allow Obama and the Democrats to do what the vast majority of voters in 2008 wanted them to do. The Republicans stonewalled in Congress nearly every meaningful piece of legislation that Democrats put forward.
 
 
+9 # Ralph Averill 2010-09-27 19:48
"...the more voters see and hear the Teapublican candidates, the less they like them. This is why the Teapublicans avoid debating their opponents and the media."
The Democrats need to keep calling for debates and the press needs to keep nipping at teabagger heals. These people need to be driven out of the tall grass before election day.
The Republicans trade in fear,(thank you, Karl Rove,) and now the teabaggers are scarin' hell out of everyone. What a delicious irony!
 
 
+7 # Branna 2010-09-27 22:12
Oh I hope so...I thought as Americans hear the radical GOP agenda, the anti workforce mentality, & them wanting to kick us back to the dark ages...they will see that they have a fighting chance with democrats.
 
 
+7 # Branna 2010-09-27 22:13
BTW...I hope everyone is working to get out the vote FOR democrats!
 
 
+3 # Daniel Fletcher 2010-09-27 22:49
Sigh of relief perhaps, but the democrats remain merely a lesser evil. Winning in November would only be a step in the right direction. Let's hope it won't be wasted like Obama's first steps have been. A Democratic win in November of itself does not make up for the failed leadership to date and hopefully will not be seen by the Democrats as an endorsement for their to date cowardly status quo. A win in November won't impress me in the least if it means more of the same. Frankly, the next move following a win should be exposing the blue dog democrats and punishing them mercilessly to support their party. And of course, the party must reform much of it's own hypocrisy and do it's job actually responding to the demands of the Democratic base instead of ignoring us.
 
 
+2 # JD Hughes 2010-09-28 12:47
Stoopid was the new cool, until folks began to pay attention. Facts never change, lies do. Fun to think that many stockholders are now paying millions that they could have had to support weird candidates who have slim chances of making it. Making it up, sure, but prevailing? Nawww, that's just too comedic!
 
 
+1 # Gordon Williamson 2010-09-28 13:15
I appreciate Jerry's thoughtfulness. I am curretly writing a book of TV piooneers in Wash, D.C. but i am also trying to gt to White House PR cause I have a TV spoot that will mokv e Mt Hood Help me if you can. Get backto me fsp2a@aol.com
 
 
+4 # Marilyn Russell 2010-09-28 16:36
"Either be interested in politics or be rules by your inferiors."
Plato

Get out the VOTE!!!!!!!
 

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