Holland writes: "There is now a non-trivial chance that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College to Obama."
'The national popular vote could be important this year, so just as Daniel Ellsberg says: think strategically.' (photo: Sun-Sentinel)
Voting Your Conscience
29 October 12
The popular vote may become a factor this year.
his post is addressed to disgruntled progressives who are urging like-minded people to vote "strategically" by casting their vote for Obama if they live in a contested state, and voting for a third-party candidate if they live in a solidly blue or red state. Daniel Ellsberg makes the case for this strategy here. If, on the other hand, you agree with Matt Stoller hat Romney would be no worse for progressive America than Obama - a position that I find ludicrous - then do what you think is best. I won't tell anyone how to vote.
The reason this is a terrible idea in 2012 is simple: there is now a non-trivial chance that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College to Obama. It'd be like 2000 in reverse. Right now, Romney holds a small, 1-point lead in the popular vote, according to TPM's polling average . But in TPM's electoral college vote tally, Obama is leading 261-206 (a candidate needs 270 to win). Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight model gives a 5.3 percent likelihood of this scenario coming to pass. That's not exactly a winning-the-lotto-type long-shot.
Now, in a perfect world, this wouldn't matter. We have a quirky system, and the winner of the popular vote is, for better or worse, a matter of trivia. We select presidents according to the Electoral College tally, not the popular vote. And if you think Republicans would greet this news rationally, understanding that George W. Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and acknowledging that we should be consistent in these matters, then by all means, vote strategically for Jill Stein or whomever if you're in an uncontested state.
I think a more realistic view is that they'd precipitate a crisis, as the conservative media howled about how the people had spoken and their will must be respected. A concerted effort would be made to persuade members of the Electoral College to become "faithless electors." Efforts would be made to split the electoral vote proportionally in any states Obama wins that are controlled by Republicans. We'd see more " Brooks Brothers riots " unfold. It'd be a huge mess, and I don't think the outcome would be certain.
Karen Tumulty gives us a taste of how the corporate media might greet this turn of events in today's Washington Post, telling us that "no incumbent president seeking a second term has ever won the electoral college and lost the popular vote," and predicting more "partisanship" than ever if such an outcome should come to pass. As Josh Marshall notes, "The difference between a non-incumbent and an incumbent winning this way is no more than some sort of pseudo-fact. It quite simply is what it is." Regardless, we'd see a lot of this is the kind of punditry; we'd be sure to hear a lot about how "unprecedented" the situation is, despite being just 12 years removed from the last time it's happened.
Democrats can work to avoid this scenario by turning out more voters, regardless of where they live - in Oregon or Alabama. The national popular vote could be important this year, so just as Daniel Ellsberg says: think strategically.
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OBAMA/BIDEN 2012
The alternative is a snake in the grass.
I don't suppose it ever crossed your mind that maybe, just maybe, progressive might actually unite to fight like hell against Romney and the Rs -- and how great that would be compared to the alternative that we're seeing here, which is to keep allowing the Dems to take us for granted and continuing their non-stop slide to the right. You do remember that it was the Senate Democrats who brought us Obamacare and put the health insurance industry in charge of or health care don't you? And passed the extension of the tax cuts for the wealthy. And continued to fund the wars. And extended the Patriot Act and made it even more Draconian.
Mark my words, it will be the Democrats who trash Social Security and Medicare.
And the weenie party loyalists will once again defend them as they once again abandon their base.
Try that "BOOO!" stuff on someone else -- it's lost its fear factor for a huge number of progressives who are getting tired of being stabbed in the back by their so-called Demo allies.
the BIGGEST issue which is being ignored entirely IS Nature. We are babbling monkeys on a sinking ship, which could be repaired, if we cared more about a livable future, than chocolate/vanil la and $ profits above having a planet worth living on.
Fukushima is still spewing, Fracking and GMO's are raping the soil and water, and the Legitimate Rapist Bankers and endless war profiteers suck away at the apathetic or ignorant consumers.
How do we become more interested in conserving rather than consuming and begin the process of Tikkun, where we may have a possibility of a future worth living in for anythings children?
Shame on us for going along with any of this #$$##! We are more interested in appearances than substance, as we speed into the wall of Nature, trading diverse life for disposable landfill.
Oops
I'll readily agree that as long as the electoral college is in place, a third party candidate will never occupy the White House. But I disagree with the premise that all independent voices should shut up and vote for Obama because we're all so scared of Romney. The politics of fear is what got us into this mess in the first place.
"It's better to vote for what you want and not get it, than it is to vote for what you don't want and get it." -Eugene Debs
A third part crowd in Congress could shake up the establishment and that would be a step forward.
No one is stopping us from having 100 parties. The only problem is that there'd by 98 liberal parties and 2 conservative (Nazi and Repuglican).
Who do you think would win every election?
We are not fooled. Nor are we abandoning the Democrats -- they abandoned the progressives.
Maybe at some point the phony "Demo strategists" will wake up and realize that their strength is not in the middle, that the "undecideds" are not who win or lose elections. They should have learned in 08 from Obama's then-popular progressive campaign promises (most of which he abandoned). But they didn't - as soon as he and a bunch of other Dems got in office it was the same old, same old. Cater to the powerful, take the progressive base for granted and carry on business as usual in DC. Only now they're on the ropes and, like the wife beater husband, wants us to "take them back" with phony promises to be better in the future...a future they don't have the votes to change.
Sorry, bro, but the Dems are gonna get what they deserve from many, many progressives this year -- and it won't be pretty, but oh-so-well earned by the Lame-o-crats.
Otherwise, all you're doing is punishing the rest of the country. A few millionaire Congressmen won't be hurt if you take away their Social Security and Medicare. My mom will. Congressmen won't be hurt if you allow Twit to start another war with Iran, but millions of innocent people, including those who will likely be drafted WILL. Hillary Clinton won't be hurt if you allow Twit Romney to end federal subsidies for college loans and end Pell Grants, but most college kids will.
On the other hand, if you have a little foresight and don't wait until the last minute, you COULD challenge right-leaning and moderate Democrats from the far left IN THE PRIMARIES. This is what repugs are doing with the T-Party. Of course very few of those t-partiers ever go on to win the general election. In fact, the t-party has effectively taken safe seats away from the repug party because (previously unheard of) Democrats had an easy time defeating t-party repugs who were viewed as too extreme.
If you want romney and the repugs to control things, by all means tell everyone you know to vote for 3rd parties.
That's EXACTLY what KARL ROVE WANTS YOU TO DO.
Also, could you be more specific about the Social Security and Medicare cuts you're refering to?
Love the rationale! So sanctimonious! So superior! YOU get what YOU deserve --- just like that sanctimonious pedestrian who sees the car coming, but KNOWS he has the right of way . . . and stepping out boldly finds an early entry to the promised land! . . . I really wouldn't mind, if you didn't also bring the rest of us with you.
It's not fear. It's about responsible choice.
They want to take America back - to when they did not mention.
Ginsberg has cancer. She may die before 2016. If romney is in office he WILL NOT replace her with another Ginsberg. He WILL replace her with another scaley-scalia.
If the uncompromising high-horse more progressive than thou superior left-wingers think things are bad now, wait until the Supreme Court has 6 conservatives!
WITHOUT FLORIDA, GORE WOULD BE PRESIDENT IF HE'D WON NEW HAMPSHIRE.
Your logic is that he spent millions of dollars to lose. That doesn't make any logical sense at all.
Also, the Supreme Court didn't say "make sure 97,000 votes aren't counted". It was a few hundred. Nader had 97,000 with campaign money taken from the GOP as he was a GOP operative.
Gore, a seasoned politician, made odd mistakes and topped it off with the Florida situation.
Out of all states Florida was the deciding factor? The state where Jeb Bush was governor? The election was built under a 2 party illusion when in reality it was built for Bush to win.
Go back to the PNAC think tank. The language used in their documents was very confident. They knew that within a few years they would have influence in the White House. Jeb Bush was a member of PNAC.
Dei's Scalia still keeps saying, "Get over it!"
We'll have so much more to "get over" and it will take several decades atleast.
Nonsense.
If you are in NY, CA, IL, MA, NJ, MD,
WA, you have a Free Vote Use it!
Buck up, Mr Holland!
Alan McConnell, in Silver Spring MD
The Green Party will have to replace the Democratic Party under the current electoral system in order to represent the left. It won't replace the Democratic Party next week, but it could lose the election to someone who doesn't even believe in FEMA!
If you were REALLY serious about this, you'd challenge the Democratic Party IN THE STREETS as soon as the election is over - and make damn sure Hillary isn't the default candidate in the next election.
Otherwise, you're all talk and just doing Karl Rove's dirty work.
http://www.juancole.com/2011/11/police-crackdowns-on-ows-coordinated-among-mayors-fbi-dhs.html
But I don't understand how on earth this election can be so close. Indpendents are supposedly behine Romney because of his perceived economic prowess. How can they be so blind? Romney and Bain capital do not build businesses, they buy and sell them, tearing them apart to the highest bidder, laying waste to jobs in the U.S. Unfreaking believable!!!
In terms of ideology, I'm a progressive, even a socialist. So no, not all Independents are Republican Lite. And Bernie Sanders is not the exception that makes the rule. He RULES!
And this life-long Democrat voted for Rocky Anderson. I am tired of being taken for granted and the next time President Obama murders an American citizen without the due process of law, I won't be sitting here saying -- 'and I voted for him.'
And NeoGeo - as a progressive I'll be voting for Obama, my youngest has spent one third of his life at war. He is now in the reserves and I hope it stays that way. RoMoney is chomping at the bit to be a war president (a grunt on the ground - never, but from the comfort & safety of the WH - cue the drums of war).
There are those who say that the Democrats and Republicans have been bought by the same rich people, and while there still is a slight difference, the end result is almost the same, even if the rhetoric differs.
Why ay woman or anyone who cares about a woman would vote Republican is a mystery to me.
This year we have the strange situation that the Libertarian and Green Party candidates agree on many points. It stops being a matter of Progressive or not, and starts being a matter of right and wrong.
I used to say that America was shifting to be less like Canada and more like Mexico, a few very rich and large numbers of very poor. Now we are becoming more like North Korea, leaders who appear sometimes not to be sane, and lots of people starving to feed an unreasonable war machine.
What worries me more is if the perception that the Republicans stole the election by hacking voting machines reaches the point where people lose faith in the process. If Romney wins in that way, it may actually be enough to motivate more positive changes, but the interim won't be pretty.
Absolutely. Neither progressives or conservatives have THE lock on 'WHAT IS RIGHT' that they think they do. Good ideas and holding to the Constitution isn't a left/right thing.
Maybe next time, candidates who want to take down the Democratic candidate will do it in the primaries, rather than making it obvious they just want to destroy the entire left.
I think it's a shame that people can't see Romney' BS and lies, these are people that just can put 2 & 2 together. It's sad how dumb and stupid the American voter has become over the years.
How can you possibly vote for anyone with a kill list? Cause you think the other guy will have a larger kill list?
Romney will win no matter who you cast your pitiful vote for because the election is to be stolen in the voting machines. This time Obama won't have an extra 9 milion hopefuls to counterbalance the 10 percent switch from Democrats to Republians in the electronic voting machines. It happens in most large precints now where it is difficult to prove. Happens since tha advent of the machines. Why do you think you can't get a receipt? But don't believe me, go beat up on a Green, beat up on Ralp Nader.
By the way, in 40 years of voting for president I have only voted write-in or third party. I refuse to be responsible for what the Dem/Repubs do in office in my name.
Instead, I write in the name of the person I believe is qualified for the office. You might think it a wasted vote, but you are wrong. Indeed, imagine if the thousands and millions of disfranchised voters in every city who don't vote decided to write in, it would have an effect on the outcome.
But the real issue being ignored for the 5th decade in a row is the Oil Criminals and the crooked politicians they own, speaking of corruption. But you still think we should pay more for gas, don't you. Oh well, maybe next time.
I was teaching in the USA years ago at one of your famous universities were students pay $ 60,000 or so a year. You want it to increase further? For a European, this is *decadent*. I was there when the warmongering was going on, I saw millions of your flags and no one who was not infected with the disease of ‘going in’ to Iraq. I wonder how many of these beautiful souls who call Obama a killer actually supported this criminal war. You were wrong. The whole USA were wrong, with some small exceptions and that‘s the truth about it. Now vote for a nobody and help elect a guy who want to go in again, Iran this time. He doesn’t even know where the Persian Gulf is, but hey, you’ll vote with your conscience. It’s absolutely mind-blowing stupid and, yes, hypocritical and criminal.
One of the biggest mistakes that Democrats and liberals make over and over is being afraid of upsetting the Republicans. You need to get it through your thick heads that the Republicans will NEVER be reasonable, no matter what you do. It is stupid to let that influence you in any way.
Don't be ruled by Fear!
As it stands, romney has a good chance of winning this thing - not because of anything good about romney himself, but because the entire corporate world knows a romney presidency would be better for profits than an Obama 2nd term.
THEY KNOW how to manipulate popular opinion and they're doing a pretty damn good job of it. If it didn't work, they wouldn't be spending billions. It's just advertising and it never ends.
A President who wishes to further the cause of the left has to take this into account and operate around it. It's the elephant in the closet. You can't avoid it by pretending it isn't real. Naïvete is an unforgivable trait in a politician, and all of the 3rd partiers who really believe they will change the system through joining the 1% who refuse to vote for Obama are terribly naïve.
There's also the other "3rd partiers": the right-wingers who are just going on the internet to manipulate potential Democrats into voting against their own best interests.
This is a war.
As it stands, romney has a good chance of winning this thing - not because of anything good about romney himself, but because the entire corporate world knows a romney presidency would be better for profits than an Obama 2nd term.
THEY KNOW how to manipulate popular opinion and they're doing a pretty damn good job of it. If it didn't work, they wouldn't be spending billions. It's just advertising and it never ends.
A President who wishes to further the cause of the left has to take this into account and operate around it. It's the elephant in the closet. You can't avoid it by pretending it isn't real. Naïvete is an unforgivable trait in a politician, and all of the 3rd partiers who really believe they will change the system through joining the 1% who refuse to vote for Obama are terribly naïve.
There's also the other "3rd partiers": the right-wingers who are just going on the internet to manipulate potential Democrats into voting against their own best interests.
This is a war.
I have never told anyone how to vote. However, anytime I share my opinions I'm judged and told I'm narrow minded, selfish and a person with an agenda.
If anything, it is people who follow the 2 party mentality that get upset and are telling other how to vote and how we are wasting our votes. Essentially, it is 2 party believers who are trying to stop us from having free will.
Folks resort to name-calling when their arguments fall to pieces.
They are they even annoyed when Greens don't vote for Obama instead of their own candidate!
If we believe in voting for 3rd party there is a knee jerk reaction by some to call us names and we are told that we have "an agenda." Whatever happened to free will? Whatever happened to respecting peoples opinions and right to vote as we choose?
Actually they do. I encounter rage almost every day that I might have the temerity to vote for Obama. With plenty of name-calling. How could I possibly consider voting for that fascist war monger etc etc?!
Well given how bad the situation is, how corrupt our whole political system is, how rigged everything is in favor of the 1% or 2%, perhaps one has to vote AGAINST Romney. Vote to keep Romney out of the White House. That, too, is voting one's conscience.
I can't ignore the millions of people whose lives will be made infinitely worse by those who allow Romney to win. Even a reluctant vote for Obama is voting one's conscience. We just make a different calculus as to the ramifications of having one or other in the White House and appointing Appeals Court judges and Supreme Court justices. We have different life experiences. If you're a woman, the picture looks very bleak. I will not permit the radical right to continue the war on women. Since no candidate is going to align with me on all issues, I always have to swallow hard or hold my nose when voting.
Presidential elections don't have to be this way.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections.
When the bill is enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes– enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538), all the electoral votes from the enacting states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and DC.
The bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers in 21 states. The bill has been enacted by 9 jurisdictions possessing 132 electoral votes - 49% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.
NationalPopularVote
Follow National Popular Vote on Facebook via NationalPopular VoteInc
The real battles begin post-inaugurati on. Oops, let me rephrase that. The real battles SHOULD begin post-inaugurati on. If the last four years are any indication, keyboard activists whine and moan while sitting in comfy chairs in front of their computers, but when it comes to showing up for rallies to demand the rights expressed in FDR’s Second Bill of Rights, they are no-shows. Thereafter, politicos of all stripes do what they want here in Oceania.
Politicians will do what we allow them to do, and will also do what we demand of them.
Try reading Howard Zinn’s “A People’s History of the United States”.
Progress is a contact sport. Get out into the streets! Shut off your machines and get out into the streets. Nothing, absolutely nothing will get the attention of corporatists and their Congressional mouthpieces like a hit on their wallets. That is what it will take. Short of that, our choices will hereafter always be that which appears in the first paragraph of this post.
Stuck once again voting for the lesser evil.
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