Reich writes: "...according to most polls, the Romney-Ryan ticket is falling further and further behind. How can this be?"
Portrait, Robert Reich, 08/16/09. (photo: Perian Flaherty)
Why Romney and Ryan are Going Down
17 September 12
nemployment is still above 8 percent, job gains aren't even keeping up with population growth, the economy is barely moving forward. And yet, according to most polls, the Romney-Ryan ticket is falling further and further behind. How can this be?
Because Republicans are failing the central test of electability. Instead of putting together the largest possible coalition of voters, they're relying largely on one slice of America - middle-aged white men - and alienating just about everyone else.
Start with Hispanics, whose electoral heft keeps growing as they become an ever-larger portion of the electorate. Hispanics now favor President Obama over Romney-Ryan by a larger margin than they did six months ago.
Why? In last February's Republican primary debate Romney dubbed Arizona's controversial immigration policy - that authorized police to demand proof of citizenship from anyone looking Hispanic - a "model law" for the rest of the nation.
Romney then attacked GOP rival Texas Governor Rick Perry for supporting in-state tuition at the University of Texas for children of undocumented immigrants. And Romney advocates what he calls "self-deportation" - making life so difficult for undocumented immigrants and their families that they choose to leave.
As if all this weren't enough, the GOP has been pushing voter ID laws all over America, whose obvious aim is to intimidate Hispanic voters so they won't come to the polls. But they may be having the opposite effect - emboldening the vast majority of ethnic Hispanics, who are American citizens, to vote in even greater numbers and lend even more support to Obama and other Democrats.
Or consider women - whose political and economic impact in America continues to grow (women are fast becoming better educated than men and the major breadwinners in American homes). According to polls, the political gender gap is widening.
Why? It's not just GOP senatorial candidate Todd Akin's call to ban all abortions even in the case of "legitimate rape" (because he believes women's bodies somehow reject violent sperm). The GOP platform itself seeks to bar all abortions, with no exception for rape or incest. And on several occasions Paul Ryan has voted in favor of exactly such legislation.
Meanwhile, Republican legislators in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Idaho, and Alabama have pushed bills requiring women seeking abortions to undergo invasive vaginal ultrasound tests. All told, over 400 Republican bills are pending in state legislatures, attacking womens' reproductive rights.
Republicans have repeatedly voted against legislation giving women equal pay for the same work as men. Republicans in Wisconsin have even repealed a law designed to prevent employers from discriminating against women.
Or consider students - a significant and growing electoral force, who voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008. What are Republicans doing to woo them back?
Paul Ryan's budget plan - approved by almost every House Republican and enthusiastically endorsed by Mitt Romney - would have allowed rates on student loans to double, adding an average of $1,000 a year to student debt loads. (Under mounting political pressure, House Republicans came up with just enough money to keep the loan program going safely past Election Day by raiding a fund established for preventive care in the new health-care act.)
Now Romney wants to hand the federal student loan program over to the banks, which will charge even more. Earlier this year he argued subsidized student loans were bad because they encouraged colleges to raise their tuition, and suggested students ask their families for money.
Republicans have even managed to antagonize seniors by seeking to turn Medicare into vouchers whose value won't keep up with rising healthcare costs, and cutting $800 billion out of Medicaid (which many seniors rely on for nursing home care).
And, of course, they've come out against equal marriage rights for gay couples.
Romney, Ryan, and the GOP don't seem to know how to satisfy their middle-aged white male base without at the same time turning off everyone who's not white, male, straight, or middle-aged. Unfortunately for Romney and Ryan, the people they're turning off are the majority.
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Knock it off.
Seems so very much more important to me.
Reagan started tax policies that began improving the gains of the top quintile more than any of the lower quintiles, and gave us the second increase in debt to GDP ratio after WWII. Ford was the first to try tax cuts and actual spending cuts, giving us a modest .2% increase in debt to GDP during his 3/5ths of a term. Every Republican president since has increased the debt to GDP ratio, though GHW Bush did start to reduce the rate of increase (perhaps by the tax increase that Grover Norquist destroyed him with).
Voters should remember that Clinton pretty much carried on GHW Bush's policies at first, then got tax rates that didn't stop improving the gains of the top quintile more than any others, while making us all 14.7% better off, and generating some surpluses.
Compare that to GW Bush who took us all down 5%, converted a $5.6 trillion declining debt that could have been paid off entirely by 2012 (though they claimed they could give us a $5 trillion surplus by 2005, and only missed by about $10 trillion). Our real, sustainable, economy took its worst hit since the great depression under GW Bush.
Those crying about the tax rates should be asking to be thrown back into Clinton's briar patch.
Regarding Romney. Ryan & Rove in 2012:
Maybe once or maybe even twice, but NOBODY - not Zig Zigler (the world's best salesman from Yazoo City Mississippi) and certainly not Karl Rove - NOBODY can continue to sell ill-fitting suits and too-loose shoes forever. Rove took his two best shots in 2000 & 2004 with Bush-Cheney but now it looks as if WE The People have gotten wise.
Go home Karl! The Texas Car-Title-and-P ayday-Loan industry always has room for another man of your talents.
This also happened to a certain in the 2010 mid-term elections. Democrats are either complicit or clueless or both. The point is don't count Romney out; he has a high probability of winning given the opportunities for fraud that these electronic voting machines present.
Any middle aged white guy that states we gotta get our country back, will vote for Willie and Paul the R&R Boys. (Their first album will be released just in time for Black Friday. I understand the working title is, "White Guys, I love You!". Although there has been some pushback from the White Guy's women folk.)
I am voting for Rocky Anderson. Give him a google and maybe you will like what he says.
You are the ones who need to wake up!
Some people say the Democrats are just like the Republicans, and in some ways that’s true, but when it comes to making legislation, over all, they try to protect the interests and lives of the 99% and all Americans. The Republicans platform is now, “Donate to our campaign and we’ll make you wealthier.” Their ideology is “The Ideology of Greed”.
Our only chance to heal our country is to have a true Democratic super majority, until the Republicans regain their sanity.
Please remember--a LOT of Congresspersons voted for this unConstitutiona l "indefinite detention" clause, otherwise it wouldn't have gotten to Obama's desk. YES, he should have vetoed the NDAA because of it; NO he is not solely responsible for it.
Rove is targeting him with huge amounts of money for ads. Please help if you can.
"Republican chickens have come home to roost!"
The Republicans have continued to slice off slivers of support all throughout the Primaries. Romney needed to solidify the party base, whose modus operendi over the past 30 years has been to divide and conquer.
The D&C strategy worked fine when it was dividing Democrats into smaller factions that Republicans could co-opt with sweet talk and flowers into voting for the "adult" party. Then Romney comes along, the only sane candidate in the pack that was smart enough to target his appeal to the D&C folks. Unfortunately for him, that meant to prove his loyalty to the D&C cause, he had to slice up his natural constituency. The process has been messy and inexact. But is left is a party sliced up into warring factions. A candidate incapable or unwilling to grab strands from each slice and build a coalition to stitch them back together.
What this all means in the General Election is that even persons that don't start paying attention until they finish their last beer on Labor Day can sense the lack of direction in the Republican candidate. He is ill at ease, since the positions he is being forced to take, that is starting to sputter and babble incoherently. Their campaign is left with nothing more than invoking boogey men and scary lies because they were so busy dividing, they forgot that the "C" also can mean convince. And they are convincing no one.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/09/secret-video-romney-private-fundraiser
What a king size IDIOT. You would think that ALL politicians at THIS POINT understood that there is ALWAYS somebody near with a recorder or camera.
I think Obama learned that the HARD way in San Francisco in 08, when he talked about people hanging on to their guns and was it religion???
I am glad Romney is too stupid to understand, for he is revealing what he REALLY think about a lot of the voters. And I sure hope the voters will return the favor.
What I found interesting about the video, was the way Romney carried himself. He was relaxed, and actually came off as natural. It was a glimpse of the Real Romney. This video was not leaked, there are a lot of people that will agree with the sentiments he expressed.
But then we might see that he is one of those who didn't pay any INCOME tax.
This time I think not...at least I hope not.
Romney has stepped in it to the point, that too many voters can see what he REALLY THINKS ABOUT THEM. He is an IDIOT
His "regime" started right after 9/11, didn't you know?
Besides Enron, the thing that set me off against Bush was the 7 minute delayed reaction to news of a second plane striking the other tower. Having worked in missile warning, where we had to notify the President within 2 minutes, and typically had a decision within 10 to 12 seconds, I have a very low opinion of his efforts to keep us safe. Then he made many more enemies out of friends and otherwise neutral people with the Iraq fiasco. I think very many others could have done a much better job before and after the attacks, but we "supported" him anyway. I hope we never again have our trust so badly misused.
Liberals are still staying with the party of Jefferson.
AFTER THE 2008 ELECTIONS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY WAS DEAD...
KEEP UP THE DRUMBEAT BOBBY!
Just goes to show that folks don't really read the posts!!!
For those of you that can read, the Republicans are not dead and they took control of the House and will take the Senate too, this time.
Until the system changes we MUST deal with the one we've got! Throwing your vote away is as big a sin as NOT voting or voting for the MORE Evil of the two! WHY cut off your nose to spite your face? At the very least, with a man like President Obama in the Oval Office we already KNOW what we're dealing with. With the Twit and the Twerp we'll be ruled by the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson! Never, EVER vote ReTHUGlican!
Let's get this straight people, if you choose to vote for anyone other than angelfish's choice you are a "sinner".
Well angelfish, please tell us, is it a venial sin or a mortal sin? The anxiety ridden among us need to know.
For the uh, less religious among us, suggest a nice glass of wine, perhaps a Xanax (only by prescription please), then go ahead and vote however you want to.
It is the best cure for hyperbolic "true believer syndrome".
Most realize he did that ONLY to espouse anything that shows him a path to the oval office. He comes across as an empty shell, unprincipled, inhumane man because he pretty much is one. He does not care. If the party believed in chicken soup to cure cancer he would tout that. The party is extremist BUT the nation is not. It is in the middle perhaps tending now slightly to the left.
While I am not thrilled our nation does not see that progressives most often tell the truth, know what they are talking about and are generally humane I accept it is so and play the ball where it lies. I try to select a candidate who most closely resembles what I believe even IF he does not do it all.
I will repeat, again, that if you live in a state where the presidential election is already known, PLEASE vote for a third party candidate in the presidential race. I do not that much care which one, but we MUST strengthen the alternatives to D & R so that if the Republicans do self destruct there is an alternative.
Truly strategic voting would be electing third party candidates at the local and state level, where they can start to build support and actually have a chance at winning national office. But today, in 2012, voting for a third party presidential candidate is voting for Romney, and that could swing the results in the most secure states.
They clearly stand solidly for only one portion of the country--the 1%.
And they share zero international understanding. What's Romney going to do, gang-attack the entire Arab world with scissors?
Romney has fewer wives than Obama's Muslim father had, not that your anti-Mormon comment deserves an answer.
Sorry to be the bearer of good news but check this out:
www.electoral-vote.com
All your doubts about the polls can be answered pretty clearly if you bother to look. You won't like it though.
I agree about the "oversampling" of Democrats, if by that you mean "asking people who they like better" rather than "asking upper class twits who they plan to vote for". We both know very well the repug party is afraid of democracy in action, so it MUST enact laws specifically intended to keep poor people from getting to vote.
Of course Rasmussen already takes that into account. According to Rasmussen (the conservative friendly poll) Obama is still OVERWHELMINGLY favored to win. In fact, look at Rasmussen's latest polls in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Do you think Mittens can win without any of those states?
So yeah, ROMNEY'S DECLINE is a good way of puting it.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/wisconsin.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/florida.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/virginia.html
If you want any more details feel free to ask...
Quoting: "Easy answer is that the polls are wrong because they oversample democrats and undersample republicans and independants."
Which is it?
So IF I am correct and the polls do over sample dem and undersample repubs/independ ants and they still show Obama falling then that would mean it is even worse for Obama than what the polls say.
ANY poll that is using the ratio of dems to repub that turned out in 2008 election is going to be wrong. It would be better to use the most recent election ratio (2010) than 2008.
Regardless, we will all find out in Nov if the polls are right or not.
So it is kind of a moot point IMO.
That is why the polling is using the 2008 ratios because it is the last presidential election. I fully understand why they are doing that. It does make sense instead of using the 2010 congresional elections. However, my point is that the 2008 election was an aberration in that is was an "historical" election regardless of what anyone thinks about Obama. Since it was historical there were many things that happened then that I just don't think will happen again. Ex, the voter turnout amoung college students was really high (which helped Obama) and I don't see the interest as being as high. Also, many blacks voted for Obama BECAUSE he was black, even conservative blacks who didn't like his politics. They will not be voting for him this time. Yes he will still get between 90-95% of the black vote but it will be less than in 2008. So the voter turnout was much higher because of the historical nature of 2008 which benefited Obama. I just do not believe (I can be wrong) that the turnout will be as high. Other polls show the Repbu base is more energized than the Dem base. that was not the case in 2008 but was the case in 2010.
Once again, I could be wrong and we will all find out in a couple of months. But remember that Kerry was ahead in the polls and in fact thought he had won when the early exit polls came out.
I don't know if the polls are correct regarding which side is energized more. What I do know is that in the most recent election 2010, the conservative base was much more energized than the liberal base, thus the results of 2010. So now the question is, what has happened in the last 2 years to de-energize the conservative base (ie, is the economy better? is unemployment lower, have they accepted Obamacare? are they happy with immigration issues? etc). Now, what has happened to bring the energy level up from the 2010 low for libs. Has Obama gotten us out of Afghanistan (70% of all deaths there are on his watch not Bush's), where is the anti-war movement? Has he closed GITMO as promised? What about his support of NDAA? Did he support the workers in WI and where was he in Chicago teachers strike? Are students who voted for him in 2008 happy now that they have graduated with crushing loans debt and have no job?
I don't know the answer. Are libs afraid of Romney win? yes, but is it enough to turn out as many "independents" as that happened in 2008? All questions that I don't have answers to.
But, I do know that polls now are used to make news and not just report it so that is another reason why I don't trust them this early. The real answer will happen is Nov. Simple as that.
While I do have criticism of Obama, especially with that "art of compromise i.e., surrender, the engergized Repub base is acting upon reflexively what they've usually have acted on. Briefly, being Right for the wrong reasons. Repubs have actually been more of the warmongers than the Dems. I'd like to count the ways, but can't at this moment. BUT. While the Dems are sometimes politically spineless, the Repubs have shown to be certifiably insane, including those within the base.
They're ultranationlist kind of patriots, support 19th century-like economics, 12th century-like religious fanaticism, whether friendly or hostile.
Love to you all,
LadyDem
As for a third, or fourth, or however many parties other than the top two...it can't work under the present system. The counting/voting system has to be changed first to allow other parties a real voice. Voting for one now is essentially giving the worst of two evils the vote.
How anyone who is not wealthy can vote for R&R is beyond me. It's comparable to the chickens voting the fox in to be in charge of their house. So vote for Obama and other Democrats. Most of them aren't great but they are better than the opposition.
If the Democrats get the "ball" they have to make the case for change, but the groundwork for that change does not exist yet and the trust of the people for the Democrats is not really any better.
So, to bring about real change we need either a carte-blanche from a total hatred of Republicans, or a very intellectual argument that will receive total attacks in the media by Republicans.
In other words, the American peolpe are paralyzed, they do not know how to do more than switch the ball back and forth and have no idea what past an election to do?
Russia is a big foe. They could be helping us against China or cooperating with us in the Middle East, but they are still hegemonic too and so they thwart everything we try to do. That is a large scale problem, meaning Russia could be construed as our biggest enemy.
Romney is not stupid, he is just very focused on on him and his class's problems, and that does worry me because for many reasons we must maintain our humanity. I don't think it is right to keep undercutting our economy and people because many of our largest capitalists are globalists and want to escape the laws and responsibilitie s of America - we are unsustainable if we try to do that.
Studies in neuroscience are pretty conclusive that by sending out a message of gloating or condescending superiority you an tip some people into a kind of reverse-contemp t and lose support.
This is one of the core trickeries of guerilla marketing ... you know, it would be so much much simpler and life would be so much better if people really were rational.
We spend so much time assaulting/insu lting people in our society into irrationality, and a contempt for logical thought, because the whole world does not seem logical to them, that this is now the way elections and mass media movements are engineered.
Compared to what our Founders thought Democracy/Repub lic was, modern systems theory and human irrationality throws it all on its ear!
Democrats need to stay on message, and they need to further develop their message because getting the White House (back) is just one - very small part - of fixing the problems with our country.
It's also why the Obama contingent has to everything in their power to get the vote out for Obama. To all: DO NOT TAKE AN OBAMA WIN FOR GRANTED. Stay energized and focused on getting out the vote!
But a number of credible sources seem to think that Romney can literally buy the election. Who knows? But Romney as a presidential candidate just seems too crazy not to be purposeful.
1. Corporate banking and financial interests who control the keys to the kingdom.
2. Neoconservative s who control the foreign policy of the GOP lock, stock and barrel and therefore have de facto control over:
3. The Religious Right. A group consisting largely of "born again" Christians who were brought in by Bush the Elder consigliore, the late Lee Atwater.
This group has become totally dominant within the party, which means they control much of the social agenda to the eternal regret of brother Atwater as well as many in group 1.
The Likudniks of course are perfectly content to stir up the RR desire for Armegeddan anytime it suits their purpose, again to the chagrin of group 1.
Group one has therefore decided that Romney will be the sacrificial lamb put up to lose decisively in order to facilitate group one in a final purging of groups 2 and 3.
It just may work.
If it does, the GOP and our nation will benefit, because no matter how partisan one may be, in the final matter, a healthy, honest opposition party based on legitimate differences of opinion is best for all of us.
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