The Republican National Convention: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

By Oliver Burkeman, Guardian UK

25 August 12

Hurricanes, alligators, Donald Trump and some of the worst-case scenarios GOP operatives will be hoping to avoid.

ext week's Republican convention in Tampa has, of course, been choreographed down to the tiniest detail. The stage set, we're told, has been meticulously engineered to convey "warmth, approachability and openness". Much thought has been given to avoiding last-minute disruptions by supporters of Ron Paul, or by anarchists wielding acid-filled eggs. Nor are we likely to see the high drama of the 2008 party conventions, marked as they were by historical firsts, most notably the first nomination of a vice-presidential candidate based on under three minutes' vetting by her party.

But things might still go wrong. The following list of worst-case scenarios - and I'd like to be absolutely clear about this - is provided solely in a spirit of generosity, to help the GOP forestall them. No anticipatory Schadenfreude is intended. None whatsoever.

1. The hurricane scenario: will Hurricane Isaac, most recently reported as a tropical storm gathering strength in the Caribbean, wreak havoc in Tampa? (As you may recall, Hurricane Gustav - though it came nowhere near the convention HQ in St Paul - gave John McCain another chance to engage in his favourite campaign tactic of "suspending the campaign".) Hurricanes, Michele Bachmann and Pat Robertson agree, are generally signs of heavenly anger at profligate government spending, or feminists. So what will it mean if God smites Tampa? Perhaps it will mean that He is sick of being used as an explanation for naturally occurring meteorological phenomena.

2. The sex scandal scenario: Tampa's strip clubs are expecting an income boost from the convention, though at least one establishment is now offering the opportunity to participate online, regrettably reducing the chances of big names being photographed emerging from darkened doorways. Still, after a tiring evening on the convention floor, and a few drinks at the hotel bar, inhibitions crumble. Will this be the moment at which Paul Ryan is finally exposed as harbouring a super-secret sexual fetish that involves dressing up in correctly fitting clothes?

3. The fugitive wildlife scenario: to hold your convention in Florida is effectively to guarantee that it'll intersect with some kind of animals-on-the-loose story: it's a fact, although not a statistically accurate one, that 50% of all Florida news stories involve alligators, and - as detailed in this week's New York Times magazine - a wily macaque has been on the run from Tampa cops since 2009, achieving heroic outlaw status among locals. The worst-case scenario here involves a monkey or alligator on the loose in the convention centre itself, which among other things might startle the stable of dressage horses with which Mitt Romney travels at all times (strapped to the roof of his car).

4. The "major party figure goes off-message" scenario: for days, Republican talking heads have been insisting that Joe Biden's use of the word "chains" was a racially divisive reference to slavery. Imagine, then, if a high-profile Republican, say Sarah Palin, were to accuse President Obama of putting people in "chains", or "shackl[ing]" them! That would be extraordinarily embarrassing. The party would never let that happen! Oh, wait.

5. The "rock musician objects to the use of his or her music" scenario: another Republican classic, borne of the truth that most rock musicians are left-leaning, while many rightwing politicians are convinced that the way to appeal to a wider audience is to be seen to Rock Out. We've already heard Rage Against the Machine's rage at Ryan (a little ungrateful, since he has presumably bought several of their t-shirts in XXL). Rumours that Chris Christie plans to arrive on stage to the music of Billy Bragg remain unconfirmed.

6. The "Democratic counter-programming actually works" scenario: each party always holds a few half-hearted press conferences near their rival's convention, in an effort to grab a bit of the TV coverage. (Rudy Giuliani spent much of the 2008 Democratic convention loitering in Denver, muttering about 9/11.) It rarely works. But this time, the Democrats are sending Joe Biden, the Gaffemeister-general - who just this week implied he'd had sex with three presidents - so anything could happen. Ironically, a big reason Biden's gaffiness is back in the news is the GOP's own strategy of trying to turn it into a liability for Obama. A big enough Biden gaffe - on the scale of asking a man in a wheelchair to "stand up … let 'em see you!", say - could steal precious television time.

7. The "Donald Trump does anything at all" scenario: according to several reports, the billionaire self-promoter and hair comedian has been given a "surprise role" on the convention's opening day, though Trump himself shyly insists it will be "rather minor". (Only kidding! He says it'll be "very, very major".) Perhaps, in the spirit of the times, he will share his unsolicited musings about sexual assault or reproductive biology? Perhaps he will launch a new toupee. Perhaps he will reveal a previously unknown talent as a human beatbox. Or perhaps he'll deliver a genuine surprise by watching quietly from the audience. One can dream.

8. The "GOP ideology undermined by some basic fact about the convention itself" scenario: the theme of the convention's second night will be "We Built It!" - the latest effort to capitalise on Obama's "you didn't build that" line. Unfortunately, it will be held in a convention centre built with 62% government funding. Cue sad trombone.

And consider bookmarking that sad trombone link. In the coming days, we may be needing it frequently.