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Feldman writes: "The country is currently not the closest we've ever come to nuclear war, says Daniel Ellsberg, but we are still likely to face annihilation."

Leaker of the Pentagon Papers Daniel Ellsberg. (photo: Julie Dermansky/Getty)
Leaker of the Pentagon Papers Daniel Ellsberg. (photo: Julie Dermansky/Getty)


Daniel Ellsberg: Under Trump, the Threat of Catastrophic War With North Korea Is Very Real.

By Lucy Feldman, TIME

18 January 18

 

he country is currently not the closest we’ve ever come to nuclear war, says Daniel Ellsberg, but we are still likely to face annihilation. And recent false alarms in Hawaii and Japan, erroneously alerting residents to incoming missiles, do nothing to quell the anxiety. “This was a little rehearsal,” Ellsberg says, “but not the first one, of being right on the edge of destruction.”

The history-making whistleblower softens no blows, sugarcoats nothing. The 86 year-old went to battle with the U.S. government when he released the Pentagon Papers in 1971, walking away a free man after a landmark trial in which he was charged under the Espionage Act. But Ellsberg has more alarms to sound. “The threats to exterminate North Korea for acts by its leaders are illegal, immoral, monstrous,” he tells TIME from his home in Kensington, Calif. There is a chance humanity will survive the weapons of its own making — but “it’s very unlikely.”

Ellsberg’s urgent interest in nuclear debate runs deep. Before he released the material that revealed the government misled the public about the extent of U.S. involvement in the Vietnam War — a story newly refreshed by Matthew Rhys as Ellsberg in Steven Spielberg’s latest, The Post — Ellsberg was a nuclear analyst and consultant to the Department of Defense, where he helped draft Secretary Robert McNamara’s plans for nuclear war. In December, he released The Doomsday Machine: Confessions of a Nuclear War Planner, a book which unravels his untold history with 1960s nuclear secrets and his would-be plans to release them.

The book — and the first-hand understanding of the dangers of nuclear war it yields — come at an essential moment, as President Donald Trump knocks on the door of conflict with North Korea. The claim that casualties resulting from war with North Korea would be “over there” rather than “over here,” put forth by Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina in August, is both “vile” and “false,” Ellsberg declares; Kim Jong Un has planned for the ability to cause harm in the U.S., of that we can be sure. “Trump could not totally eliminate, even in a surprise nuclear attack, the North Korean ability to retaliate,” Ellsberg says. And don’t forget chemical warfare capability: Kim’s half-brother Kim Jong Nam was assassinated just under a year ago with the nerve agent VX. The risk of conflict with North Korea, Ellsberg contends, is likely to be far, far greater than what we’ve been told. “If I had access to those official estimates right now, I would certainly consider putting that information out to the press, to the public, to Congress and the world,” he says, adding a plea to those who might have truths within their reach: “Don’t do what I did; don’t wait until the bombs are falling or thousands have died if you have information that might avert that.” Also on Ellsberg’s whistleblowing wish list: the 6,000-page 2012 Senate report on torture. The decision whether to leak or keep nuclear secrets was made for him. The most intriguing tale in his book, fodder for a political thriller on its own, involves the documents he never made public. All the while Ellsberg busily copied 7,000 classified pages from the “History of U.S. Decision-Making in Vietnam, 1945-68” report, he also copied a trove of documents on the country’s nuclear program—pages he judged even more crucial, more imperative to the fate of the country than those on the war in Southeast Asia. Pages he always intended to release at the conclusion of his Pentagon Papers trial. But Mother Nature denied him the chance: he gave the documents to his brother Harry, who held them in his Westchester County, N.Y. basement for two years, moved them to his compost heap when the FBI started hunting for Ellsberg in 1971, then—the day before mysterious men were seen prodding the spot where they’d been in his yard—to a place near a junked gas stove in the local dump. But a storm swept the papers away, never to be discovered again.

Ellsberg is staunchly in favor of counter-proliferation. “It’s possible to make a case for a small deterrent force of nuclear weapons if your neighbors or adversaries, opponents at war, have such weapons,” Ellsberg admits — but he cites Herbert York, the nuclear physicist who once ran the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, when he adds that we can justify closer to one than 100 weapons. “You do not need the ability to cause nuclear winter to achieve any national objective, like deterring nuclear attack or occupation—you do not need the ability to end most life on earth,” he says. And yet we have it, as does Russia. On the plus side, he adds: North Korea does not.

Ellsberg believes there is a real possibility that the U.S. will go to war with North Korea, and that such a war would be catastrophic. It would not bring about the end of humanity as a war with Russia has the potential to do, he says, but it would kill millions and risk putting the country on a dangerous course, particularly under the leadership of President Trump. Ellsberg speculates there would be a “crackdown” in the U.S., in the event of North Korean retaliation. He envisions a suspension of the Constitution, a country with detention camps, mass deportations and total surveillance — the end of democracy.

If there was one lesson the whistleblower learned in the Pentagon Papers episode that we must apply now, it’s this: “Intelligent, patriotic, conscientious men can in secret pursue monstrous policies,” he says. “In other words, in the darkness, prevented from any public awareness, very smart men can act not only stupidly, but also crazily.”
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+16 # mavrant 2018-01-18 14:50
Damn.. How fast can we get the f.....g moron out of the white house?
A lot more than a tax cut and ACA repeal are at stake here.
David Letterman, I think, said it best.. paraphrasing; we know he's not well, stop spending so much time on it, and lets just put him in a home. I've got 7 grandkids that will be military age in his term.
 
 
+6 # Robbee 2018-01-19 12:24
Quoting mavrant:
Damn.. How fast can we get the f.....g moron out of the white house?

- for dems, that ship sailed nov. 2016

for repukes that ship sails only if they'd rather have pence, thanks for asking?
 
 
+10 # Robbee 2018-01-18 15:55
if, as ellsberg says, "very smart men can act not only stupidly, but also crazily", then how can a stupid and crazy prez act?

was "never hillary!" ever a reasonable or defensible position? - robbee says "no way! never! no way!"

"we have seen the enemy! and they are us!" - pogo
 
 
+2 # janie1893 2018-01-18 16:31
I would opine Kim Jong Un has already stashed
lethal nerve agents supplies on US soil to actuate immediate retaliation for any military attack on his country.
 
 
+20 # elkingo 2018-01-18 16:38
What else is new? Do we all have Armageddon Fatigue? And why are madmen only allowed to run the planet? The whole world order has to be revised and fast, for the sake of preservation, let alone humanity.
 
 
+20 # Wise woman 2018-01-18 17:14
It is frightening to think that in such a very short time, the MIC has brought us to this place all the while being enabled by his witless minions. This "playing with fire" is so incredibly juvenile and outright dumb, it's difficult to comprehend. Does not the possibility of ending all life on earth have any meaning to these hapless guys?
 
 
+6 # Robbee 2018-01-19 12:44
[quote name="Wise woman" in such a very short time, the MIC has brought us to this place
- didn't you get the memo?

the only thing dems have been politically able to do, to slow the rapid increase in military spending, is to tie domestic spending to military spending, dollar per dollar (the "sequester" they'll be talking about today) - even bernie doesn't take on the mic - for the past several decades, where have you been?

all but your timeline, you got the rest of it right

we are primary arms supplier to the world - that's how america runs the place - makes money
 
 
+8 # PABLO DIABLO 2018-01-19 12:54
Still a hero Mr. Ellsberg. I've thanked you many times, but once more THANK YOU. Your courage should be an inpiration to all.
 
 
0 # DongiC 2018-01-22 03:27
When Ellsberg talks, I listen. He is one of my heroes and he has earned the respect of all thinking people. If he hypothesizes a war with North Korea would entail the end of our democracy, the suspension of our Constitution, concentration camps all over the land, then, the threats to our way of life are real and we ignore them at our peril.

I go a couple of steps further. Trump and his minions constitute a grave threat to all of us, kind of like the one that faced Noah, annililation. He represents the dark side in the eternal struggle of good versus evil. My question to all readers here is simply "Where do you stand. With Ellsberg or with Trump?"
 
 
0 # Helen Marshall 2018-01-28 12:17
Folks, please note that the enormous nuclear buildup did not start with Trump, it was the Obama administration that did that...there are no good guys in this story. Our refusal to say "no first use" is decades old. And our invasions and occupations of countries that had no nuclear weapons provide all the rationale that the North Koreans need to have such weapons to protect themselves. Sadly, the anti-war movement seems to have collapsed over the years, and in my congressional district the ONLY issue up for discussion among the candidates for the Democratic nomination for that seat is immigration and the Dreamers. Not a single word has been said about our foreign policy/nukes/wa rs/and the forces that benefit.
 

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