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Chow writes: "Despite the Koch brothers' best efforts, it looks like gas guzzlers are on the way out. Sales of electric vehicles will surpass those using internal combustion engines by 2038, a new analysis has found."

Electric cars. (photo: Wikimedia)
Electric cars. (photo: Wikimedia)


Bad News for Big Oil: Electric Vehicle Sales to Surpass Gas Guzzlers by 2038

By Lorraine Chow, EcoWatch

16 July 17

 

espite the Koch brothers' best efforts, it looks like gas guzzlers are on the way out. Sales of electric vehicles will surpass those using internal combustion engines by 2038, a new analysis has found.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) projects that "electric cars will outsell fossil-fuel powered vehicles within two decades as battery prices plunge, turning the global auto industry upside down and signaling economic turmoil for oil-exporting countries ... [displacing] about 8 million barrels a day of oil production—more than the 7 million barrels Saudi Arabia exports today."

"This is economics, pure and simple economics," BNEF's lead advanced-transportation analyst Colin McKerracher said. "Lithium-ion battery prices are going to come down sooner and faster than most other people expect."

The report's bold forecast was also bolstered by surging investment in lithium-ion batteries, higher manufacturing capacity at companies like Tesla Inc. and Nissan Motor Co., as well as rising demand for EVs in China and Europe.

BNEF admitted that its report is the "most bullish to date and is more aggressive than projections made by the International Energy Agency."

Here are other notable projections for the booming category, according to BNEF:

  • In just eight years, electric cars will be as cheap as gasoline vehicles, pushing the global fleet to 530 million vehicles by 2040
  • Electricity consumption from EVs will grow to 1,800 terawatt-hours in 2040, or 5 percent of global power demand, from 6 terawatt-hours in 2016
  • There's around 90 gigawatt hours of EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity online now, and this is set to rise to 270 gigawatt hours by 2021.
  • Charging infrastructure will continue to be an issue with bottlenecks capping growth in key Chinese, U.S. and European markets emerging in the mid-2030s

The report is another sign of the shifting energy landscape. Just this month, France joined Norway, Germany and Kenya's efforts to ban gasoline- and diesel-powered cars. Also, Volvo became the first major carmaker to phase out vehicles powered by fossil fuels. Finally, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced that his company is building the world's largest lithium ion battery to solve in South Australia's energy woes.

Meanwhile, DeSmog reported that conservative oil billionaires Charles and David Koch are funding a campaign called Fueling U.S. Forward to squash the rise of electric vehicles. The group released a video called the Dirty Secrets of Electric Cars., featuring "blatant factual errors, misleading statements, and glaring omissions," DeSmog writes.

Interestingly, the BNEF points out that the world's "Electric Car Revolution" could be well underway except for one major factor: Donald Trump.

According to the report:

"In Europe, almost 67 percent of new cars sold will be electrified in 2040, and 58 percent of sales in the U.S. and 51 percent in China, BNEF said. Though there's uncertainty in the U.S., where President Donald Trump could dramatically disrupt electric vehicle growth by withdrawing support for the technology in the world's second biggest car market."

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+4 # Rodion Raskolnikov 2017-07-16 14:23
2038!!!!!

Oh really. By 2038, there may not be much of the world left to drive around in. And besides, making predictions for something that far into the future is nothing more than the weakest guess.

I grew up in Los Angeles in the days when there were no air pollution regulations on cars and the city was so smoggy that somedays you could not see more than a few hundred yards. The catalytic converters, air injection pumps, and a whole host of other anti-pollution devices appeared on cars. The State of Cal, simply outlawed cars that were not equipped. there was about a 3 or 4 year phase out period of old pre-smog controlled cars. It happened very quickly.

I'm recently back from China. 10 years ago, Chinese cities had millions of gas scooters, most of them 2-cycle engines. Then they were banned. Same phase out as California. Now China is about 99% electric scooters. Cars are following quickly.

Saying 2038 is like saying it will never be done. You can't leave this to the "free market." That is the Koch Bros way since they know it will never happen.


It is pointless to blame Trump for this. If Hillary were president, this issue would be the same. The American oilygarchy makes its own rules.
 
 
+1 # ReconFire 2017-07-16 15:04
Right on Rodion. The U.S. auto manufacturers will also fight this tooth and nail. Just like they did in the late 90's. They make almost 1/2 of their profit from parts sales over the life of a vehicle, something you have very little of with electric motors.
 

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