Bernie Sanders Points to Crowd Sizes as Sign of Strength for 2016

By John Wagner, The Washington Post

02 January 16

emocratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders, whose large crowds propelled his candidacy over the summer, closed out the year Thursday by touting the size of his recent rallies in the nation’s first caucus state.

“Often as not, the turnout has been double what we expected,” the Vermont senator told an overflow audience at a New Year’s Eve party he hosted here at a downtown hotel, capping off a three-day swing through eastern Iowa.

Aides distributed a tally showing that more than 34,000 people have now attended events hosted by the Sanders campaign since May, a figure that is certainly higher than either of his Democratic rivals. Sanders said he believes he’ll have reached close to 50,000 people by the Feb. 1 caucuses.

The question at the heart of his campaign remains much the same as it has for months: whether Sanders can harness the enthusiasm of his rallies and boost turnout enough on caucus night to upset Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton. Most analysts are betting against that.

Clinton has consistently led in the polls here since the fall, including a survey last month by the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics that had her up over Sanders by 9 percentage points. Other surveys have showed somewhat larger margins.

Many of those attending Sanders’s rallies have never participated before in a caucus, which requires a commitment of several hours on a night when the winter weather can be an issue. And younger voters, who tend to participate in lower numbers, have been among the most enthusiastic supporters of Sanders’s call to take on the “billionaire class.”

At stops in mostly small towns over the past three days, Sanders has argued that he will prevail in Iowa if the turnout is higher than usual on Feb. 1. If it is lower, Sanders has acknowledged, he will probably lose to Clinton.

In 2008, the last time there was a competitive Democratic contest, almost 240,000 people turned out -- nearly double the more typical participation of 124,000 four years earlier. Much of the swell was attributed to enthusiasm over Barack Obama’s candidacy, something the Sanders campaign says it is trying to replicate.

In an interview Thursday afternoon, Sanders pointed to crowd sizes from this trip: 600 in Muscatine, 1,850 in Davenport, 500 in Keokuk, 800 in Ottumwa and 500 in Knoxville.

“It makes me think we have some momentum that can carry us over the top here in Iowa,” he said.

Sanders's crowds that gained most attention earlier this year tended to be in much larger cities that he visited only once and drew people from the surrounding region. He topped out at roughly 28,000 in Portland, Ore.

The crowd at Sanders’s New Year’s Eve party filled two ballrooms and spilled into the hallway and reception area in between on the second floor of the Renaissance Savery Hotel downtown. He gave his remarks twice, speaking to the two ballrooms separately.

“In a few hours, 2015 will be gone and 2016 will come,” he told the second group. “Together, we can make 2016 an historic year, a year people in the future will look back on and say ‘thank you’ Iowa for leading the political revolution.”