71 Percent of Iowa Voters Less Likely to Vote for Candidates Bankrolled by Koch Brothers

By Maggie Haberman, Politico

15 September 14

he Tom Steyer-funded outside group focused on climate change has found attacks on the Koch brothers to be effective in key races and with a swath of voters for whom economics are a main driver, according to a memo obtained by POLITICO.

The findings, laid out in a memo from Steyer adviser Chris Lehane to NextGen state teams, are synthesized from research in specific states by pollsters Anzalone Research, Benenson Strategy Group and Hart Research, and the data analytics firm Civis.

Democrats have repeatedly used the Koch brothers as a cudgel in ads in key races nationally this year, a strategy they argue is backed up by immense data.

The memo lays out how climate issues are playing out with certain voters, identifying a group NextGen calls “Super Shifters.”

“The Super Shifters are primarily voters with children who earn an annual income of less than $100,000 and are profoundly unhappy with the gridlock in Washington,” Lehane writes in the memo. “These are voters that are continuing to dig out from the 2008 Great Recession. For these Super Shifters, economic issues are the electoral dominant driver.”

The Super Shifters “believe that the system is rigged against them — and that there are powerful interests, the corporate ‘fat cats’ — a phrase that came out of a focus group — who exercise undue influence over the political process,” Lehane adds.

He goes on to say the attacks against the Kochs work because they are tethering Republicans to a sense of a rigged system, and that that is overriding President Barack Obama’s own weak poll numbers.

“One of the most intriguing findings in the polling is that the Koch brothers have emerged as a negative signifier for Republicans aligning with these powerful self-serving corporate fat cats,” Lehane writes. “Given these findings, various Democratic candidates and organizations are effectively deploying the Koch Brothers as a symbol of Republicans being the party of the Fat Cats (Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid knew exactly what he was doing when earlier this year he elevated the role of the Koch brothers).”

He cites specific states, such as Colorado, where data “shows that the Koch brothers have a net favorability of negative 14 percent among all likely voters.” The issue is being used to push against Republican Senate hopeful Cory Gardner there.

In Michigan, where Koch-aligned groups recently stopped running ads, the Kochs are at a negative 23 percent favorability, according to the memo.

And in Iowa, 71 percent of likely voters said they were “less likely to support a candidate if he or she was being bankrolled by the Koch brothers.”

“Our opinion research makes clear we can employ such a jujitsu approach in this election by playing offense on the Republicans’ connection to their donors on issues related to climate change,” Lehane writes.

Steyer, who has been trying to up his political game and launched NextGen this year but is its main supporter, is relatively new to the political scene. The Koch brothers have been involved in political issues for several years, but Democrats began using them in attack ads against Republicans in at least two cycles ago.