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writing for godot

The Life Expectancies of our Kids and Our Fossil Fuels

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Written by William F. Pickard   
Thursday, 14 January 2016 06:39


The life expectancy of an average American born in 2010 is thought to be 78.7 years [1]. For those of us who have grandchildren in that age cohort, a major issue is whether America is being so led that, when they become as old as we now are, they can reasonably expect to enjoy creature comforts no less pleasant than those we now enjoy.

For sure, this is a complicated challenge to meet. However, a good start would be to ask whether America’s announced reserves of fossil fuels would suffice to sustain, from now until 2100, the flow of primary energy we now extract from our dowry of fossil fuels. Let’s do it!

Until the coal is out of the ground and combusted, no one knows how much energy (from what might be available) will actually be obtained. Moreover, coal varies all the way from the highly desirable anthracite to the much less desirable lignite. Nevertheless, one can conflate reserve predictions to get a ballpark estimate of reserves on the order of [2] 20±10 Gt of modest quality bituminous. Doing the same sort of juggling with recent production figures gives [3] 0.75±0.25 Gt/y. It looks like our coal supply might just peter out in the second half of this century. Not only may we not have enough, but burning it freely might be really bad for the environment.

For petroleum, America’s production in recent years has been on the order of [4] 3.0±0.5 Gbbl/y , while its reserves have hovered around [5] 35±10 Gbbl . The United States (and Russia and Mexico …) are rich with exhausted oil fields while major new finds are few and far between. Later on this century our petroleum supply might just peter out as well.

For natural gas, the reserve estimates are on the order of [6] 350±50 tcf , while our drawdown has been [7] 30±5 tcf/y . Once again, it seems that a major source of America’s energy may be about to dry up.

In short, our nation’s dowry of fossil fuels seems ill matched to our nation’s hunger for fossil fuels. The life expectancies of our nation’s little children conspicuously exceed those of our identified reserves of fossil fuels. And our Governments’ responses are incommensurate with the apparent direness of the approaching energy crisis!

Of course one NEVER knows in advance just how much longer a particular mineral resource will last. But it IS known that the planet’s surface is littered with the carcasses not only of mines and wells that played out but also of boom towns that withered when the nearby resources were exhausted. Coal, petroleum, and natural gas do not regenerate themselves to any meaningful degree: when they’re gone, they’re gone for good; and only their wastes (plus the atmospheric carbon dioxide) remain. Worse yet, when you drill a hole at random into Mother Earth, the best you’re apt to come up with is a source of potable water. Yellow gold, black gold, and even exploitable phosphates are rare and rapidly depleted resources. America seems to be living beyond its means.

As a grandfather, I take no pleasure in watching presidential wannabes tiptoe around the issues of resource exhaustion and global warming: it’s my descendents’ futures they’re gambling with. Therefore, I conclude with an Impossible Dream: wouldn’t it be nice if each presidential wannabe actually deigned (or scrupled) to come up with even one detailed energy plan? How about a plan with (i) assembly instructions so easy to follow that not even a politician or an apparatchik could screw it up and (ii) funding so inspired that our grandkids will NOT get stuck paying for it?



William F. Pickard, older ‘n’ dirt, is a retiree (from Washington University in Saint Louis) who specializes in energy matters. He’s pretty much clueless as to how the crises confronting America might be surmounted. But at least he has had the good grace not to stand for public office.



[1] http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr63/nvsr63_07.pdf

[2] http://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/pdf/table14.pdf

[3] http://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/pdf/table6.pdf

[4] http://www.eia.gov/opendata/embed.cfm?geoset_id=&type=chart&relation_mode=line&series_id=PET.MCRFPUS1.A&date_mode=periods&start=&end=&periods=

[5] http://www.eia.gov/coal/annual/pdf/table6.pdf

[6] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_enr_wals_a_EPG0_R21_Bcf_a.htm

[7] http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm
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