Written by Graham Bengen   

I've been thinking about this a lot, recently, and I honestly believe that the US Supreme Court will evenutally rule 5-4 or even 6-3 in favor of a Constitutional right for same-sex couples to marry. I do not think the Court will take up the Proposition 8 case from California. In fact, I think that the Court will summarily deny a writ of certiorari in that case and let the ruling of the 9th Circuit stand -- especially, since that ruling was so narrowly tailored. More likely, the Court will grant cert to a case involving the "Defense of Marriage Act" (DOMA) -- either the most recent case, decided on Wednesday, from California ... or the DOMA case from Massachusetts, which is currently winding its way through the federal appeals process.

I truly believe that the GOP secretly wants this issue to go away, so that "well-off" and "would-be" GOP gay and pro-gay voters will feel more inclined to vote for and contribute to Republican candidates. My take is that the marriage-equality issue, for the GOP, is similar to the abortion issue. All along, Republicans have been secretly happy about the Roe v. Wade decision. Conveniently, Roe has never been overturned, despite numerous GOP presidential appointments to the Supreme Court over the past 25 years. That's not a coincidence.

The GOP's happiness about this derives from the fact that Roe v. Wade helps the GOP in two different ways. On one hand, Republicans can assure pro-choice men and women that, even if a candidate is against abortion rights, he or she will not be able to turn that opposition into actual law -- because of the Roe decision. So, pro-choice voters, especially Republican or Republican-leaning women, can continue to vote for "pro-life" GOP candidates without the fear of having abortion rights taken away.

On the other hand, the more conservative and religious GOP candidates can whip up so-called "values voters" into a frenzy by campaigning against Roe and promising to do "all they can" to overturn the abortion rights decision. For over two decades, Roe v. Wade has been (until very recently) very convenient for the Republican Party. Because of the decision, the GOP can receive votes, support, and money from pro-choice, suburban women AND from anti-abortion, religious right-wingers -- and the party can do both simultaneously.

I believe this is the case regarding gay-equality issues and marriage-equality. If the Supreme Court declares gays and lesbians to be a "protected class", much like women and racial minorites, gay-equality issues would be moot at the state level and at the Congressional and presidential levels. The GOP would then be able to receive votes, support, and money from gay and pro-gay "would-be" Republican voters.

As with abortion, the more right-wing GOP candidates would be able to campaign against such a Supreme Court decision and whip up those same "values voters" into a frenzy by promising to do "all they can" to overturn the Court's decision. Furthermore, as of late, more and more Republicans have been "coming out" in support of marriage-equality, and I don't think that's a coincidence either. Ironically, the best thing for the GOP, politically speaking, would be for the Supreme Court to settle this issue in favor of marriage-equailty and in favor of Constitutional protections for gays and lesbians as a "protected class".

I know PLENTY of gay and pro-gay "would-be" GOP voters who currently vote Democratic simply because of marriage-equality and gay rights issues. They know a lot of people, and many of them have a lot of money to donate to the GOP. A Supreme Court decision in favor of marriage-equality and in favor of "protected class" status for gays and lesbians would definitely be a game-changer for the GOP ... and for politics in general.