Written by George Levinson   

There is a seed change coming in American Health Care, but it’s not Obamacare.

It is the revolution that is starting regarding benefits for government workers.

There are 22 million active civilian government employees. Counting their dependents and retired brethren, the total number of people covered by government insurance is about 75 million, one quarter of our population! These folks are provided excellent health care and only pay a small fraction of the premium themselves. (The total cost to governments is in the vicinity of 500 Billion dollars a year. That’s about five times the cost of the Afghanistan war!) Many will soon experience the grim reality of American health care, as they have their contribution increase dramatically. When the runaway cost of our bloated system affects them directly it could become a game-changer.

Today’s political environment is intense. States like New Jersey and Wisconsin are fighting toe to toe with the public sector unions. Within a few years most states and municipalities will have negotiated huge givebacks in benefits, the biggest of which is health care. The average private sector worker pays about 25% of his premium. Public sector workers pay about one quarter as much. As concessions are given and workers start paying a fairer share, support for the status quo will wane. Many public health care plans will be downgraded and some workers will choose more basic insurance with higher deductibles and co-pays to lower premium cost, just the way it is in the private sector. Ultimately, the federal government and the politicians themselves must have their benefits reduced too.

One reason President Obama’s health care plan was able to pass was that his biggest constituency, government workers, was already so privileged with health care that they didn’t care about fundamental change. Once everyone in government has his benefit “haircut” the failure of our employer / insurance-based system will be undeniably obvious. The only sensible remedy, a single payer system similar to the rest of the industrialized world, will be the hands-down choice.

We don’t know if Obamacare will survive the coming Supreme Court challenge. If it is stricken down, there will be an immediate void and a system change to single payer could happen more quickly. If implemented, Obamacare will surely fail because it simply doesn’t sufficiently address cost. Eventually the single payer solution will be indicated. That change is already long overdue.

This scenario is the optimistic rambling of an unabashed progressive, fiscally responsible democrat who has been an advocate for fairness and socialized medicine all his life. Could it be that today’s budget battles portend the demise of the president’s inept plan and the beginning of actual national health care?