Although it sounds terribly dry, when I attended university, this class was one of the most fun. Let me explain:

Our human brains unconsciously use statistics all the time. For instance our politicians have contradicted our scientists on global warming based on a statistical calculation. They are banking (pun intended) on a calculation that the impact of global warming will not catch up to them until they are clear of the blame for their part in delaying our response to it. They are calculating that their personal legacy will not be tainted by their intentional blind spot. They are hoping to have their accountability simply become lost in the jumble of conservative science deniers who have locked arms against the scientists who sounded the alarm.

This approach to dealing with the conflict, politicians serving the interests of their major donors rather than the public trust probably started around the time Ronald Reagan fired the union of air traffic controllers. It was also likely influenced by the bold propaganda campaign by the tobacco lobby from the 50s to the 90s, denying any link between their product and lung cancer. Their argument was also based on statistics. The tobacco lobby successfully pushed back government action on the risk of smoking tobacco for at least 30 years at the reckless expense of national health and safety, and American lives.

The way they do this is by spinning the actual statistics. In the case of the global warming deniers, they question the accuracy, or reliability of scientific statistics. They employ the tools that real scientists use to look down the road on behalf of the public. They show using cherry picked and carefully crafted statistics of their own to create talking points that the entire scientific community is promoting a crooked and selfish conclusion. Loud, persistent, and angry smears against the scientists who presented the stark "hockey stick" graph is a good example of exactly how this is done.

Two graphs stand out in the entire battle over the high ground of global warming denial. They will for ever resemble the hockey sticks that they were named after. The hockey stick name itself rings in the ear like a taunt heard on a middle school playground. This was exactly the intention of the fossil fuel lobby who crafted the media attack, and are currently running much of the current administration's cabinet.

The two graphs are the ones showing historic ocean temperatures and levels of atmospheric CO2. Others like the statistics of arctic sea ice extent, and the statistics of sub-arctic permafrost recession are important too, but it is as if all serious discussion by the government over such matters has been forever silenced by the claims of fraud using phony graphs. Any further discussion is killed by claim that everything we are experiencing from wildfires to widespread flooding are simply the result of the natural fluctuations of climate - "nothing here to see folks."

Anyway, to get back to my original topic, the fun part of statistics: It is great fun when a good statistician cuts through all the bullshit by spotting trends against a background of noise. We always remember the one quiet voice who tried to warn us in advance. Recall the few who spoke out in the face of our gathering recession back in 2006 when everyone else was caught up in the frenzy to invest in house buying. People who can really predict future trends graph the factors, so real changes can be spotted. Time itself will fill in the gaps, and time will prove or disprove the accuracy of the science and art of reading statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a recognized barometer of the country's economic health. Since the President's announcement of the pending tariffs on steel and aluminum in march, the Dow has taken on an erratic and downward trend. At best, our slow rise out of the recession has abruptly ended. I am concerned that the President's impetuous and punitive first and strongest call for tariffs, (actually the second following the snap tariff on imported solar collectors) is not against our supposed freinemy China, but instead is aimed squarely against our main trading partners, Canada, Mexico, and Europe.

Regardless of where you stand on the President's latest toy-soldier policy of protectionism, I can tell you what the stock market thinks by looking at the year to date of the Dow. What was a robust growth trend has been replaced by what looks like a slow downward spiral for the American markets, farm, manufacturing, and service.

This is what happens when we allow our leaders to sow uncertainty into the free markets of the world. Surprisingly, this is what many people want to see. Sure beats the hell outa me.

Universlman