US-Taliban Agreement at High Stake

The US President Joe Biden’s announcement to start withdrawing US troops from Afghanistan from May 1 and unconditional pullout of all 2,500 US troops in Afghanistan by September 11 to end America’s longest war has put the US-Taliban agreement signed in Doha, Qatar on February 29, 2020 at high stake, while creating a nightmare regarding the drastic consequences which will be faced by Afghanistan, including other regional countries.

Following President Biden’s decision, other NATO allies also start withdrawing their forces from Afghanistan by May 1.

President Biden’s withdrawal decision has rejected all calls of some top American and Western officials to keep forces in Afghanistan and to help resolve that nation’s internal conflict by advancing the Afghan peace process, intra-Afghan dialogue etc.

Indicating various dimensions of Biden’s hastily declaration, Western media reported: “President Biden’s promise to remove U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11 is to end America’s longest war…The stated goal of the U.S. involvement is not to end that regime…When the U.S. left Iraq, the power vacuum helped lead to the rise of ISIS there. Biden said that no amount of U.S. forces can deter the Taliban or end the war…Senator Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat tweeted Biden’s plans…undermines our commitment to the Afghan people…While the U.S. will continue to try to broker a peace agreement between the Afghan government and the Taliban…the Taliban is moving closer to a military victory…The war in Afghanistan shattered Biden’s faith in American military power…Afghanistan will be plunged into civil war, with northern warlords resisting the Taliban’s advance just as they did in the late 1990s.”

Council of Foreign Relations said: “A complete U.S, military withdrawal comes with major risks: the Taliban could expand its control over Afghanistan, and the ongoing peace process between the group and the Afghan government could collapse.”

According to the Wall Street Journal: “The move to withdraw U.S. forces without conditions also marks a departure from the Trump administration’s deal last year with the Taliban in Doha...That agreement required...a U.S. pledge to leave by May 1. The Taliban have said American forces would be legitimate targets if the U.S. stays beyond that deadline.”

Biden’s decision came as Turkey will host a US-backed peace conference on April 24, 2021, which would bring together the Afghan government, the Taliban and international partners. But, spokesman for the Taliban office in Qatar Mohammad Naeem clarified that Taliban would not participate in the conference until all foreign forces completely withdraw in accordance with the US-Taliban agreement.

Besides, the Afghan government’s negotiating team with the Taliban is also plagued by divisions between Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and his main rival Abdullah Abdullah-Chairperson of Afghanistan’s High Council for National Reconciliation, who supervised the government’s talks with the Taliban in Doha.

Recently, Afghan president Ghani ensured after a phone call with Biden that his forces are fully capable of controlling the country. But, ground realities would be quite different.

Question arises, if well-equipped Nato forces failed in coping with stiff resistance of the Taliban as to how government troops will succeed.

In fact, Indian and Afghan rulers who are playing double game, are creating obstacles in the Afghan reconciliation plan, and are manipulating America’s dual policy against Pakistan, China, Russia and Iran.

The then NATO commander, Gen. McChrystal had pointed out: “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan…is likely to exacerbate regional tensions.”

And the US-Taliban peace deal is likely to render Indian proxy support against Pakistan ineffective. It will suit Indian designs, if Afghanistan does not move towards peace and keeps simmering.

Indian intelligence agency RAW is also using terrorists of ISIS which claimed responsibility for a number of terrorism-related assaults and sectarian attacks in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Pakistan shares common geographical, historical, religious and cultural bonds with Afghanistan. Hence, Islamabad cannot afford instability in Afghanistan, because Pak-Afghan stability is interrelated.

Notably, on the same day, ahead of President Biden’s withdrawal plan from Afghanistan, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a telephonic conversation—Gen. Bajwa and Blinken discussed the Pakistan-brokered Afghan peace process and bilateral cooperation in various fields. Gen. Bajwa said that Pakistan will always support an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process based on the mutual consensus of all stakeholders. Blinken also acknowledged Pakistan’s continuous efforts for peace and stability in the region and pledged to further enhance bilateral relations, as the ISPR statement said.

Next day, Gen. Bajwa also talked to Mrs Angela Ageler, US Charge d’ Affairs to Pakistan at the GHQ. Gen. Bajwa reiterated that a prosperous, stable and peaceful Afghanistan is in the best interest of Pakistan in particular and region in general.

Now, with the proposed pullout of the US-Nato forces from Afghanistan, Indian worries have been increased, as New Delhi has been supporting the Northern Alliance and the Afghan rulers.

In case, the US-led NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan, Afghan regime will fall like a house of cards owing to the Taliban’s assaults. Even, India which has invested $3 billion in Afghanistan’s various fields, would not maintain its investments due to the successful guerrilla warfare of the Taliban who will also eliminate RAW’s anti-Pakistan network.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

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