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Cole writes: "Colin Kalmbacher at Law&Crime surveys reactions to Trump's admission in an interview on Fox News that a mail-in ballot program that made it possible for the public to vote with ease and increased turnout would keep Republicans from ever being elected again."

Voting in Ohio. (photo: David Goldman/AP)
Voting in Ohio. (photo: David Goldman/AP)


Trump Admits That Easy Voting Would Defeat Republicans

By Juan Cole, Informed Comment

31 March 20

 

olin Kalmbacher at Law&Crime surveys reactions to Trump�s admission in an interview on Fox News that a mail-in ballot program that made it possible for the public to vote with ease and increased turnout would keep Republicans from ever being elected again.

Voter suppression has not always been a purely Republican policy. The Democratic Party, back before 1964, dominated the South, and whites during the Jim Crow era systematically denied African-Americans the right to vote. They used techniques like literacy tests. Since some African-Americans at that time voted Republican, this was in part a way of maintaining the American Apartheid, but it also functioned to make sure the Democratic Party machine was not challenged. With the Nixon strategy of the 1970s, after the Democrats passed the Civil Rights Act, Southern whites were largely enticed into the Republican Party, which then turned around and began championing voter suppression of African-Americans and other minorities. Evangelicals in the latter part of the 20th century were about a quarter of the US population, and they became enormously influential in the Republican Party.

The Nixon strategy was at first enormously successful for the GOP. From 1981 to 2008, Republicans had the White House 20 out of 28 years. But then the party developed a problem. It had tied its fortunes to Southern whites and to the evangelicals, along with its staple of the business classes.

The composition of a country�s population changed over time, and generations differ from one another in attitudes. The racist Nixon strategy is not working any longer.�

What has changed?

First, Hispanics are now 18 percent of the US population, up from about 6 percent in 1980. In order to win fairly, Republicans needed to gain a significant proportion of that vote. The Bush�s knew this, and cultivated that constituency. George W. Bush typically attracted 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. But the dominance of Evangelicals and xenophobic southern and rural whites turned the party increasingly xenophobic and anti-immigrant. (Most Hispanic Americans are not immigrants, but many whites coded them that way). The increasingly vitriolic racism of the Tea Party and the Republican base against Hispanics drove some of them out of the party. Trump only got 28 percent of the Hispanic vote, very substantially off from Bush�s percentages. His favorability ratings by late last fall had further fallen among Hispanics to only 25 percent.

Then, Asian-Americans and Pacific Islanders now make up 6 percent of the US population, up from 1.6 percent in 1980. They now comed to over 20 million people. Many were conservative and business-oriented and the old Republican Party had a shot at them. But the racism has also caused many of them to flee. They heavily now favor the Democrats and they really don�t like Trump..

Further, according to Pew, white evangelicals as a proportion of the population have plummeted from 23 percent in 2004 to only 16 percent today. Pew finds that among white Protestants, evangelicals have retained their proportion, but not in the general population (i.e. many fewer Americans identify as Protestants or as religious at all). So white evangelicals could help put Bush in the White House, but just don�t have that kind of moxie any more.

And another thing: the proportion of whites in the population has fallen to only 60 percent from 75 percent in 2000. The number of counties that are majority non-white is rising. So since some significant proportion of whites vote Democratic, you can�t get elected just with what�s left of the white vote. Trump got in only because a few tens of thousands of traditionally Democratic whites in the Midwest switched to him because he said he�d bring jobs back from China and because there was a significant fall-off in the African-American vote, at least a point in Michigan, for instance.

So the lesson is that Republicans can now only win by poaching whites from the Democrats and by suppressing the minority vote.�

They succeeded in 2016 (and the lackluster campaign of Hillary Clinton helped). But in the electoral college, Trump�s victory was by the skin of his teeth in three Midwestern states. The old saying attributed to circus impresario P. T. Barnum is that �A sucker is born every minute.� But the opinion polling in Michigan, at least, does not support the notion that white workers are likely to be suckered again.

So if Trump can�t steal some white Democrats this time, that really does leave only one hope, which is to find ways of preventing African-Americans, Hispanics, and Asians from voting.

The Republican Party has obviously made some very bad choices. Gravitating to the Neo-Fascist Breitbart crowd, the nativist crazies, the rapidly declining evangelicals, and generally old white people has been stupid policy. But it is in many ways Nixon�s legacy. What worked in the 1980s may not work in the 2020s. And if the numbers are any indication, the Republicans could become a long-term minority in the near future, as there were from 1931 until 1952.

The arc of history may or may not bend toward justice but it sure as hell bends toward reality.

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+33 # RMDC 2015-11-18 15:55
Spain has a good record of prosecutions under the principle of "universal jurisdiction." This is the only way criminals like Netanyahoo will ever be rounded up and locked in prison.

Go Spain!!!!!
 
 
-25 # pagrad 2015-11-19 08:33
 
 
+24 # rich black 2015-11-18 18:13
When it comes to Israel, the incident isn't totally unprecedented. In 1967, the Israeli air force attacked the USS Liberty. Although it took many installments over the years:

"In May 1968, the Israeli government paid US$3,323,500 (US$22.6 million 2015) in compensation to the families of the 34 men killed in the attack. In March 1969, Israel paid a further $3,566,457 to the men who had been wounded. On 18 December 1980, it agreed to pay $6 million as settlement for the final U.S. bill of $17,132,709 for material damage to Liberty herself plus 13 years' interest".

Wonder what kind of compensation the US Government gave to the governments of Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos after US Gen. Curtis LeMay said the US Military would, "bomb them (SE Asians) back to the stone age", and actually ended up killing about 3 million of those citizens in a false flag war.
 
 
+13 # indian weaver 2015-11-18 18:15
I believe it was Baltasar Garzon who filed a War Crimes indictment against dubya some 5-6 years ago (following similar indictments against dubya issued by Malaysia, Switzerland and Scotland, still in force: they can detain dubya if he steps foot onto their soil - didn't Interpol file a similar indictment against dubya, or am I mistaken here?). Obama twisted the Spanish government's arm (read: threatened) to dismiss Garcon's indictment. At that time, somehow the Spanish government also found a way to "discredit" Garzon so he was out of the limelight since then. Correct me if wrong. That indictment may not have been filed by Garzon, but someone else. It was filed, in any case, then disappeared from decent society.
 
 
+14 # CarolYost 2015-11-18 23:37
Go Spain! One of these days, the criminal leaders will really be locked up.
 
 
+23 # munza1 2015-11-18 23:38
This article presents the Israeli version of events that the members of the peace flotilla attacked the Israeli soldiers, who boarded them illegally in international waters, with knives and clubs. This is not the story the survivors told and all cameras photographic and video evidence was seized from the participants who were released three days later after the Israelis had told their version of events to the world. And that's the version but of course this correspondent whom I doubt interviewed any of the survivors seems to make it all right as the NGO is 'alleged to have ties to the Moslem Brotherhood'. At least present the other sides version of what happened. One of them killed was an American citizen and some were shot in the back of the head execution style. Give me a break. It's depressing when a certain version of events gets picked up and repeated as though it's the true version of events.
 
 
+15 # Majikman 2015-11-19 02:25
Thanks, munza1, for your corrections. Your version is how I also remember the events unfolding as broadcast on Democracy Now.
 
 
-27 # ForceFoxFive 2015-11-19 03:32
I connect to this site for liberal commentary news of considerable worth, such as the witty illuminations of Max Taibbi and astute dissections of teabagger politicians and idiot savants like the brainless brain surgeon Carson. However, the site has also become the refuge for transparent Israel demonizing and barely transparent Jew bashing.
Radical Muslim savages are blowing up everything in sight and this place instead chooses to go on bender on a tired notion of Spain
reigniting its own proud Inquistional heritage with this idiotic indictment, Worse, these stupid articles are the rallying dog whistle for the same clutch of roach posters that scatter their spew forth whenever another Israel smear hits these pages. 3 radical Islamic scumbags stabbed a Jewish teacher in Marseilles today..YET NOT A Frickin WORD about it on these pages of perpetual vitriol towards Israel and Jews. Israel for all its warts, is still a tiny productive democracy in an ocean of scum degenerate regimes that put women
In gunny sacks and generally perpetuate teeming populations
of brainless poverty ruled over by a few super rich and paramountly selfish families or depots. For all this mewling about the poor oppressed Palestinians, when they controlled Jerusalem no Jews were allowed and raw sewage ran in the "holy" streets.
And if given the chance, they'd have it back that way and all the
Jews driven into the sea. They bet and lost. Deal with their deceit.,
 
 
+10 # Maturus 2015-11-19 08:36
If you must use such language ("degenerate regimes that put women In gunny sacks") to make your point you should explain how this sits with your world view:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jun/05/ultra-orthodox-jewish-sect-belz-women-driver-ban-illegal-equality-commission
 
 
+9 # rich black 2015-11-19 08:59
 
 
+3 # mebemo 2015-11-19 09:55
ForceFoxFive:

I don't care whose "side" you're on, language of this kind does nothing to promote either peace or kindness in the world.

"Let there be anger management, and let it begin with me."
 
 
-2 # ForceFoxFive 2015-11-23 02:45
What kind of "language"... Oh yeah the Truth...
 
 
-1 # mebemo 2015-11-23 16:47
Quoting ForceFoxFive:
What kind of "language"... Oh yeah the Truth...

If you're unaware of the level of overt hostility that informs your every comment, you're seriously in need of therapy. The "raw sewage" with which you seem obsessed has its source in your own mind. Try a little gentleness.
 
 
+17 # Misterioso 2015-11-19 10:03
 
 
-5 # ForceFoxFive 2015-11-20 14:28
Yeah the usual revisionist manure spin. If you're gonna invoke 1948
The "indingenous" Palestinians, instead of staying put, heeded the siren call of their savage brethren, a coalition of brave Arab horde nations ..."clear out, while we murder all these Jews and then
come back to your land and have theirs too!" .so they did and the
military Mensas w/ a 20-1 advantage bent on mass slaughter....
Got Beat?.....the poor indigenous "bet and lost"...deal with it
...had it gone according to the odds, all the Jews would be gravemarkers nobody would care, and sewage would still run in the streets of Jerusalem...
 
 
+11 # cymricmorty 2015-11-19 10:34
I'm tired of the inappropriate overuse of the anti-Semite tagging as an offense mechanism used to shut down any dialogue or speaking out about the atrocities of a brutal, blatantly racist regime. Be careful: over time, its overuse will eventually render it meaningless.
 
 
+11 # elizabethblock 2015-11-19 13:20
I wear a button that says JEWS AGAINST THE OCCUPATION. It stimulates some interesting conversations, including one at a supermarket with a woman who finally asked me, "Why can't they just get along?" I replied: Because the Jews want all the land with none of the people; they think they have a right to it; and they think, with good reason, that they can get it.
 
 
-1 # ForceFoxFive 2015-11-23 02:51
"All the land"? The Muslim world controls areas in excess of the
United Ststes territory and yet this tiny splinter where there is more
Productivity and democracy than on any of those vast expanses of
Wastelands. suppression of women, ignorance and impoverishment.
yeah they need to have it...for what? Raw sewage as ran in the streets of Jerusalem when they controlled it?
 
 
+9 # elizabethblock 2015-11-19 13:21
And Israel has paid, and is paying, a price for the occupation - not anything like the price paid by the Palestinians! - but not insignificant. Israel would like to be the Athens of the Middle East. Instead, they are the Sparta.
 
 
+2 # elkingo 2015-11-19 13:25
How can the world contain all this murderous horseshit and so much else of it? People ought'a be nice to one another, and that is the only politics. Lotta' help, Hah?
 
 
+2 # PABLO DIABLO 2015-11-19 21:53
Netanyahu should have his say in front of The International Criminal Court.
Garzon is a courageous hero.
BDS NOW.
 

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