Excerpt: "A new national poll finds the Democratic field coming into focus as the candidates prepare for this week's first debates."
Supporters of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren cheer outside a campaign event in South Carolina last weekend. (photo: Melina Mara/The Washington Post)
The Democratic Nomination Poll MSNBC Did Not Show You
26 June 19
MSNBC has been carefully crafting the perception that Joe Biden is the �front runner� for months. To substantiate that perception, they have leaned on one polling source in particular, Morning Consult.
Morning Consult has unsurprisingly shown Joe Biden doing significantly better than most other polls, with Biden leading Sanders and Warren by 19 and 26 points respectively. However, other polls show a much tighter race.
The June 21-24 poll produced by Emerson College Polling has Biden at 34%, Sanders at 27%, and Warren at 14%. But they also have Harris, Buttigieg, and Booker sharing an additional 16%. A much tighter race, and one ignored by MSNBC.
Two important takeaways here: while Harris, Buttigieg, and Booker are not really �Progressives,� their supporters would likely be inclined to vote Progressive if they dropped out. That means with Sanders and Warren sharing what Emerson finds is 41% and the 16% Harris, Buttigieg, and Booker command, you have close to 50% of Democratic voters leaning toward voting Progressive.
Joe Biden is working with a significant enthusiasm deficit. Democratic voters are not excited by him, they�re supporting him right now because the cable networks are carefully creating and reinforcing, on a daily basis, the perception that Biden is the frontrunner and that he is the candidate most likely to defeat Donald Trump.
That�s a rationale with a limited shelf-life.
MA/RSN
new national poll finds the Democratic field coming into focus as the candidates prepare for this week�s first debates. Joe Biden continues to hold his announcement bounce, and has gained a point since May � now holding 34% of the vote, followed by Senator Bernie Sanders who moved up 2 points to 27%. Senator Elizabeth Warren has broken away from the rest of those running, into 3rd place � improving from 10% of the vote up to 14%. Senator Kamala Harris comes in fourth with 7%, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is in fifth with 6%, and Senator Cory Booker follows in sixth with 3% of the vote. All other candidates poll at 1% or lower. The data was collected June 21-24, and has a margin of error of +/-4.5% for the Democratic primary.
Voters are excited in the lead up to the first Democratic Debates, being held on June 26 and 27th, with 72% saying they plan on tuning in to watch the 20 candidates. The most interest lies with Democratic primary voters, of which 85% plan to watch.
There is still room for movement within the primary race, as a majority of Democratic primary voters, 56%, said there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else. Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll, points out that, �similar to our other polls, Biden and Sanders voters are the most loyal with 50% to 55% saying they are set on their candidates. Comparatively, 33% of Warren, 18% of Harris and 17% of Buttigieg voters say they will stick with their current choices, this suggests that about 30% of the Democratic electorate are spoken for and another 30% leaning toward the top two candidates as of now leaves a narrow lane for another candidate to grab a plurality of the vote.�
Looking at demographics, Sanders continues to do the best among young voters with support of 38% of 18-29 year olds; Warren follows with 22%, while 21% support Biden, and 7% favor Harris and Booker. Among 30-49 year olds, Biden leads with 30%, followed by Sanders with 29%, Warren with 11%, and Harris with 8%. Among 50-64 year olds Biden also leads with 39%, followed by Sanders with 24%, Warren with 13% and Buttigieg with 8%. Finally, among those over 65 years old Biden leads with 52%, followed by Warren at 12%, Sanders at 11% and Buttigieg at 10%.
Among African-Americans, Biden holds a strong lead with 60% support, followed by Harris and Sanders with 12%, and Warren with 6%. Among white voters, Biden received 28% support followed by Sanders with 27%, Warren with 16% and Buttigieg with 11%. And among Hispanic or Latino voters, Sanders leads with 44%, followed by Biden with 26%, Warren with 11% and Harris with 7%.
President Trump maintains a steady approval rating of 43%, while his disapproval has dropped a point since last month to 48%. Their continues to be a gender divide regarding the President: among males 47% approve and 47% disapprove, as compared to females where 49% disapprove and 39% approve. Trump continues to hold a strong lead in the primary match-up against former Governor Bill Weld � 83% to 17% (n=407, +/- 4.9%).
In head to head match-ups, Trump trails all his Democratic opponents with Biden and Sanders holding 10 point leads 55% to 45%, Warren leading by 6, and Buttigieg and Harris leading by 4.
A majority of voters, 57%, said they think the current Presidential primary system should stay the same, with groups of states holding their primary or caucus on different days over the course of several months. 43% would like a change, advocating for a single day in which a national primary is held for all states. The support for the system staying the same varied slightly across all four regions of the country, with the greatest support in the Midwest at 65% and least in the Western states at 53%
Recently, the Democratic frontrunner Joe Biden changed positions on the Hyde Amendment which prohibits federal funds from being used to fund abortions with some exceptions. Overall 55% of voters support the Hyde Amendment, 45% oppose. Among Democrats, 43% support and 57% oppose, as contrasted to 75% of Republicans who support, and 25% who oppose the amendment. However, there is no gender divide on this issue, with 57% of men and 54% of women in support.
Overall, voters have not acclimated to a candidate who describes themselves as a Democratic Socialist � with 43% saying they would not vote for a candidate with this label, 30% of voters indicating they would vote for a Democratic Socialist,, and 27% unsure. Among Democratic primary voters, 56% said they would consider voting for a Democratic Socialist, 15% said they would not, and 29% are unsure. �The problem for Sanders and others who describe themselves as Democratic Socialists is that Independents are opposed, 42% to 26%, and that might be a problem for a Democratic nominee to overcome in a general election,� said Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll.
The most important issue for voters is the economy at 33%, ranking as the top issue for all voters regardless of political affiliation. Healthcare is the second most important issue for voters at 21%, followed by immigration at 12% and social issues at 11%. Impeachment of President Trump was the least important of the 9 issues presented with only 2%. Republican voters differ on immigration with 20% saying it was most important to their vote, as compared with 9% of Independents and 6% of Democrats. On the flip side, Democrats care more about healthcare as an issue, with 26%, as compared with Independents at 19%, and Republicans at 18%. The environment is most important for 9% of Democrats and Independents, but for only 2% of Republicans. Independents differ on the issue of education, with 7% saying it was most important, while only half of that amount of Democrats and Republicans identify it as most important.
Caller ID
The national Emerson College poll was conducted June 21-24, 2019 under the Supervision of Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of registered voters, n=1,096, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll�s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The data was weighted by age, gender, region, income, and education based on 2016 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, party breakdown, ethnicity and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using both an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only (n=697) and an online panel provided by Amazon Turk (n=399).
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Volunteer to contact voters and assist in getting Bernie supporters out to vote in your state's primary. Spread the word to vote in person, request a copy of the ballot you submit, and keep that copy. The more massive the voter turnout for Bernie, the more difficult it will be for the 1%ers to pull off election fraud, also known as 'vote death by Diebold', as happened in Gov. Jeb Bush's Florida in 2000, as verified in the documentary, "The Uncounted".
In some states (for example, Colorado), these are the steps needed to get Bernie nominated as the state's Dem. presidential nominee:
1. register in a timely manner as a Dem., as needed to attend and effectively participate in the Democratic caucus in the precinct in which you reside
2. attend your precinct caucus, and seek election as a delegate or alternate to attend your counties' assembly as a del. or alt. for Bernie
3. be prepared, as a Bernie supporter, to be kept waiting outside of where the assembly is being held, for an egregious length of time, for no legit reason and, possibly, in bad weather, while Hillary Clinton supporters are seated inside.
Above point #3 is based on exactly what happened in Colorado's El Paso County Assembly in 2008, in Colorado Springs.
All Bernie has to do is what he's preached for decades because now America is ready to listen.
nuff said....
This may be a last chance before the Koch brothers "take-over" is complete. It is imperative that we unite behind Bernie Sanders. The groundswell of interest in him is reaching an historic intensity for this early in the campaign cycle.
Hillary, on the other hand, is one more corporate Democrat in the same neoliberal tradition as Bill. Business as usual, it won't matter what she says in her campaign any more than it did what Obama said. And she has yet to make any real commitment to breaking up the big banks and putting banksters in prison. Or a long list of other things I am sure I don't need to mention here in this company.
GO BERNIE GO!!
(This is the sub-group, within the party that for all intent and purpose appears to be working in lock-step with right-wing, conservative, corporate sponsored patsies intent on slicing up America for their own riches. It's they've been picking the party's candidates and dictating the absurd rules of play).
Long live the status quo! Long live the Monarchy! Long live the New American Century! - or is it now at a thousand years (again)?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_From#The_Democratic_Leadership_Council
It was Al From who founded the DLC. The DLC came into existence after the 1984 presidential election, when Walter Mondale lost 49 states to Ronald Reagan. Democrats started paying attention to them after the 1988 election, when Dukakis lost 40 states to Bush and the Republicans had won five out of the previous six presidential elections.
I no longer support the DLC, but I do think they were needed back in the late 1980s and early 1990s. By that time the party had lost five out of six presidential elections, four of them by 40 or more state landslide margins, two of those being 49 state wipeouts. It was clear that, by the late 1980s, too many Americans were unwilling to entrust the White House to the Democrats.
The DLC helped the Democratic become attractive again to suburban voters. But in the Bush area, once suburban voters had come back to the Democratic Party, it was no relevant. And it was not relevant during the 2000s and later.
I made the same mistake voting for Kerry in 2004. Only now does his resemblance to a character in the old Pogo comic strip called "F. Olding Munney" dawn on me.
Bernie is a standard-bearer , and an example for those Democrats now in office - as well as the ones we need to elect to throw out the Republicans presently in Congress - that his message is ascendant and should be paid attention to and supported.
There are huge crowds showing up to see him in red states as well as blue, I think, because more and more Republican voters have figured out that the RNC line has not served them. That is as it should be, though there are no guarantees. I am simply saying that while you have a point, the way to get more Democrats elected to Congress is to support Bernie's example.
But the larger point that I made is that, even if he were to become President, especially with a GOP-controlled House and Senate, Sanders almost certainly would have to agree to compromises people here on this board would consider "betrayals" or "sellouts".
Obama ran a great campaign, but he turned his campaign over to the DNC after he won and the strangled the grass roots aspects of it. OFA became a top down organization that organized phome banks. Activists became frustrated and stopped attending. When is the last time you heard from OFA? DFA is still strong because they allow their membership a voice.
Bernie wants his supporters to march on Washington and demand the change he is fighting for.
an enthusiastic base will also have coat tails.
There is no excitement for anyone else...
Well I am glad that he is launching a movement. That is what is needed. But is this "movement" going to focus on school boards, city councils, state legislatures, and obscure municipal offices no one cares about? Is this "movement" going to focus on midterm elections? Is this "movement" going to focus on ballot initiatives? Is this "movement" going to create a new generation of progressive activists like the right did in the 1970s and 1980s?
Those are the infrastructures that need to be build. Very bad legislation is coming out of various state legislatures. I hate to use GOP terms, but the states are very much the "laboratory of democracy". I think there is too much of a focus on the presidency at the expense of boring, unsexy local offices no one cares about. And in those offices a lot of damage can occur.
Again what I fear is that, should Bernie become President, which I still highly doubt, people will have unrealistic expectations. And when he inevitably can't meet them, especially with a GOP controlled Congress, when he inevitably has to agree to compromises, people will come out here and call him a "sellout".
I met Bernie at a media convention in St Louis some year5s ago when he was still in the house. I hadn't given money to any politician since I resigned as a Republican precinct captain after talking with Reagan in 1980 and being scared to death with his ignorance. After talking with Bernie I've sent him money every year since then and also give to others like Sherrod Brown and Elizabeth Warren.
Why don't you focus on electing the right people to Congress?
I agree 100% with focusing on lower offices. I think too many progressives focus on national politics at the expenses of local offices, state legislatures, and other positions.
Remember 2008, when Barack Obama was going to "transform America"? The only way in which he's lived up to the hype is via his healthcare initiative, which is good (which is why the GOP tried to blackmail the country with the threat of national debt default to stop it), but a long way from enough.
No matter how much oohing and ahhing Sanders can get out of liberal idealists looking for a new hero, what guarantee is there that he won't follow Obama's trajectory?
The penalties havent gotten big yet, but when they do the ACA will be even more unpopular..
1) No Republicans, not even Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, were going to support any bill whatsoever.
2) Obama couldn't even count on every Democrat supporting every part of the bill.
Against that backdrop, as I've asked people who bash Obama for not bringing the public option or single-payer, how were the votes going to materialize? Who would have changed their mind?
So far the ACA seems to be working well. I agree it's not perfect but is saving lives. Millions more people have access to healthcare who didn't before.
I agree that it's not perfect, but it at least curtails some of the worst abuses of the US healthcare system. It is saving lives.
Inevitably, unless there is a watershed election like 1932, Sanders is almost certainly not going to have the votes in either chamber of Congress to get his agenda passed in its purest form. That means that he is almost certainly going to have to make compromises that people here will view as "betrayals" and "sellouts".
It goes back to what I've said here repeatedly. People throw all their hopes onto one or two candidates, expecting that person to be some sort of "savoir", only to see those unrealistic expectations destroyed when they collide into the crosswinds of political reality. People expect one person to implement the politically impossible. And then they turn around and become despondent and depressed whenever it becomes blatantly obvious that said candidate can't even come close to meeting said expectations.
Bernie wont make that mistake....
Obama turned his campaign over to the DNC...a huge mistake...
What's your problem with Bernie Sanders... AND (what you are implying???) "electing the right people to Congress"?
...
You are not selling that snake-oil about Bernie being better in the US Senate, are you?
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If Bernie won he would bring along some congress members too, and if he's thinking right he'd have Howard Dean doing his 50 state thing and stop the losses Obama started by naming Rahm to replace him. Rahm the ignorant sucks!
But this election is just one battle in a war that has been going on for 10,000 years, since the rise of the oligarchs (the kings and the priests) in the early centuries of the Agricultural Revolution. It will continue until either they are brought to heel or the world as we know it comes to an end.
Either way, whenever we stop fighting, they win. As Gar Alperovitz says, we are going to lose some battles, including some big ones. One might think that after ten thousand years we would have learned that the oligarchs are never going to roll over and concede defeat.
They'll just rig the electronic voting machines.