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McKibben writes: "Though it was published at the beginning of October, Global Warming of 1.5°C, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a document with its origins in another era, one not so distant from ours but politically an age apart. To read it makes you weep not just for our future but for our present."

Bill McKibben. (photo: Wolfgang Schmidt)
Bill McKibben. (photo: Wolfgang Schmidt)

A Very Grim Forecast

By Bill McKibben, The New York Review of Books

24 November 18


hough it was published at the beginning of October, Global Warming of 1.5°C, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is a document with its origins in another era, one not so distant from ours but politically an age apart. To read it makes you weep not just for our future but for our present.

The report was prepared at the request of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the end of the Paris climate talks in December 2015. The agreement reached in Paris pledged the signatories to

holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

The mention of 1.5 degrees Celsius was unexpected; that number had first surfaced six years earlier at the unsuccessful Copenhagen climate talks, when representatives of low-lying island and coastal nations began using the slogan “1.5 to Stay Alive,” arguing that the long-standing red line of a two-degree increase in temperature likely doomed them to disappear under rising seas. Other highly vulnerable nations made the same case about droughts and floods and storms, because it was becoming clear that scientists had been underestimating how broad and deadly the effects of climate change would be. (So far we’ve raised the global average temperature just one degree, which has already brought about changes now readily observable.)

The pledges made by nations at the Paris conference were not enough to meet even the two-degree target. If every nation fulfills those pledges, the global temperature will still rise by about 3.5 degrees Celsius, which everyone acknowledged goes far beyond any definition of safety. But the hope was that the focus and goodwill resulting from the Paris agreement would help get the transition to alternative energy sources underway, and that once nations began installing solar panels and wind turbines they’d find it easier and cheaper than they had expected. They could then make stronger pledges as the process continued. “Impossible isn’t a fact; it’s an attitude,” said Christiana Figueres, the Costa Rican diplomat who deserves much of the credit for putting together the agreement. “Ideally,” said Philip A. Wallach, a Brookings Institution fellow, the Paris agreement would create “a virtuous cycle of ambitious commitments, honestly reported progress to match, and further commitments following on those successes.”

To some extent this is precisely what has happened. The engineers have continued to make remarkable advances, and the price of a kilowatt generated by the sun or wind has continued to plunge—so much so that these are now the cheapest sources of power across much of the globe. Battery storage technology has progressed too; the fact that the sun goes down at night is no longer the obstacle to solar power many once presumed. And so vast quantities of renewable technology have been deployed, most notably in China and India. Representatives of cities and states from around the world gathered in San Francisco in September for a miniature version of the Paris summit and made their own pledges: California, the planet’s fifth-largest economy, promised to be carbon-neutral by 2045. Electric cars are now being produced in significant numbers, and the Chinese have deployed a vast fleet of electric buses.

But those are bright spots against a very dark background. In retrospect, Paris in December 2015 may represent a high-water mark for the idea of an interconnected human civilization. Within nine weeks of the conference Donald Trump had won his first primary; within seven months the UK had voted for Brexit, both weakening and distracting the EU, which has been the most consistent global champion of climate action. Since then the US, the largest carbon emitter since the start of the Industrial Revolution, has withdrawn from the Paris agreement, and the president’s cabinet members are busy trying to revive the coal industry and eliminate effective oversight and regulation of the oil and gas business. The prime minister of Australia, the world’s biggest coal exporter, is now Scott Morrison, a man famous for bringing a chunk of anthracite into Parliament and passing it around so everyone could marvel at its greatness. Canada—though led by a progressive prime minister, Justin Trudeau, who was crucial in getting the 1.5-degree target included in the Paris agreement—has nationalized a pipeline in an effort to spur more production from its extremely polluting Alberta oil sands. Brazil seems set to elect a man who has promised not only to withdraw from the Paris agreement but to remove protections from the Amazon and open the rainforest to cattle ranchers. It is no wonder that the planet’s carbon emissions, which had seemed to plateau in mid-decade, are again on the rise: preliminary figures indicate that a new record will be set in 2018.

This is the backdrop against which the IPCC report arrives, written by ninety-one scientists from forty countries. It is a long and technical document—five hundred pages, drawing on six thousand studies—and as badly written as all the other IPCC grand summaries over the years, thanks in no small part to the required vetting of each sentence of the executive summary by representatives of the participating countries. (Saudi Arabia apparently tried to block some of the most important passages at the last moment during a review meeting, particularly, according to reports, the statement emphasizing “the need for sharp reductions in the use of fossil fuels.” The rest of the conclave threatened to record the objection in a footnote; “it was a game of chicken, and the Saudis blinked first,” one participant said.) For most readers, the thirty-page “Summary for Policymakers” will be sufficiently dense and informative.

The takeaway messages are simple enough: to keep warming under 1.5 degrees, global carbon dioxide emissions will have to fall by 45 percent by 2030, and reach net zero by 2050. We should do our best to meet this challenge, the report warns, because allowing the temperature to rise two degrees (much less than the 3.5 we’re currently on pace for) would cause far more damage than 1.5. At the lower number, for instance, we’d lose 70 to 90 percent of coral reefs. Half a degree higher and that loss rises to 99 percent. The burden of climate change falls first and heaviest on the poorest nations, who of course have done the least to cause the crisis. At two degrees, the report contends, there will be a “disproportionately rapid evacuation” of people from the tropics. As one of its authors told The New York Times, “in some parts of the world, national borders will become irrelevant. You can set up a wall to try to contain 10,000 and 20,000 and one million people, but not 10 million.”

The report provides few truly new insights for those who have been paying attention to the issue. In fact, because the IPCC is such a slave to consensus, and because its slow process means that the most recent science is never included in its reports, this one almost certainly understates the extent of the problem. Its estimates of sea-level rise are on the low end—researchers are increasingly convinced that melting in Greenland and the Antarctic is proceeding much faster than expected—and it downplays fears, bolstered by recent research, that the system of currents bringing warm water to the North Atlantic has begun to break down. As the chemist Mario Molina, who shared the Nobel Prize in 1995 for discovering the threat posed by chlorofluorocarbon gases to the ozone layer, put it, “the IPCC understates a key risk: that self-reinforcing feedback loops could push the climate system into chaos before we have time to tame our energy system.”

All in all, though, the world continues to owe the IPCC a great debt: scientists have once again shown that they can agree on a broad and workable summary of our peril and deliver it in language that, while clunky, is clear enough that headline writers can make sense of it. (Those who try, anyway. An analysis of the fifty biggest US newspapers showed that only twenty-two of them bothered to put a story about the report on the homepages of their websites.)

The problem is that action never follows: the scientists do their job, but even the politicians not controlled by the fossil fuel industry tend to punt or to propose small-bore changes too slow and cautious to make much difference. By far the most important change between this and the last big IPCC report, in 2014, is simply that four years have passed, meaning that the curve we’d need to follow to cut our emissions sufficiently has grown considerably steeper. Instead of the relatively gentle trajectory that would have been required if we had paid attention in 1995, the first time the IPCC warned us that global warming was real and dangerous, we’re at the point where even an all-out effort would probably be too slow. As the new report concedes, there is “no documented historical precedent” for change at the speed that the science requires.

There’s one paramount reason we didn’t heed those earlier warnings, and that’s the power of the fossil fuel industry. Since the last IPCC report, a series of newspaper exposés has made it clear that the big oil companies knew all about climate change even before it became a public issue in the late 1980s, and that, instead of owning up to that knowledge, they sponsored an enormously expensive campaign to obfuscate the science. That campaign is increasingly untenable. In a world where floods, fires, and storms set new records almost weekly, the industry now concentrates on trying to slow the inevitable move to renewable energy and preserve its current business model as long as possible.

After the release of the IPCC report, for instance, Exxon pledged $1 million to work toward a carbon tax. That’s risible—Exxon made $280 billion in the last decade, and it has donated huge sums to elect a Congress that won’t pass a carbon tax anytime soon; oil companies are spending many millions of dollars to defeat a carbon tax on the ballot in Washington State and to beat back bans on fracking in Colorado. Even if a carbon tax somehow made it past the GOP, the amount Exxon says it wants—$40 a ton—is tiny compared to what the IPCC’s analysts say would be required to make a real dent in the problem. And in return the proposed legislation would relieve the oil companies of all liability for the havoc they’ve caused. A bargain that might have made sense a generation ago no longer counts for much.

Given the grim science, it’s a fair question whether anything can be done to slow the planet’s rapid warming. (One Washington Post columnist went further, asking, “Why bother to bear children in a world wracked by climate change?”) The phrase used most since the report’s release was “political will,” usually invoked earnestly as the missing ingredient that must somehow be conjured up. Summoning sufficient political will to blunt the power of Exxon and Shell seems unlikely. As the energy analyst David Roberts predicted recently on Twitter, “the increasing severity of climate impacts will not serve as impetus to international cooperation, but the opposite. It will empower nationalists, isolationists, & reactionaries.” Anyone wondering what he’s talking about need merely look at the Western reaction to the wave of Syrian refugees fleeing a civil war sparked in part by the worst drought ever measured in that region.

The stakes are so high, though, that we must still try to do what we can to change those odds. And it’s not an entirely impossible task. Nature is a good organizer: the relentless floods and storms and fires have gotten Americans’ attention, and the percentage of voters who acknowledge that global warming is a threat is higher than ever before, and the support for solutions is remarkably nonpartisan: 93 percent of Democrats want more solar farms; so do 84 percent of Republicans. The next Democratic primary season might allow a real climate champion to emerge who would back what the rising progressive star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called a “Green New Deal”; in turn a revitalized America could theoretically help lead the planet back to sanity. But for any of that to happen, we need a major shift in our thinking, strong enough to make the climate crisis a center of our political life rather than a peripheral question easily avoided. (There were no questions at all about climate change in the 2016 presidential debates.)

The past year has offered a few signs that such large-scale changes are coming. In October, the attorney general for New York State filed suit against ExxonMobil, claiming the company defrauded shareholders by downplaying the risks of climate change. In January New York City joined the growing fossil fuel divestment campaign, pledging to sell off the oil and gas shares in its huge pension portfolio; Mayor Bill de Blasio is working with London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, to convince their colleagues around the world to do likewise. In July Ireland became the first nation to join the campaign, helping to take the total funds involved to over $6 trillion. This kind of pressure on investors needs to continue: as the IPCC report says, if the current flows of capital into fossil fuel projects were diverted to solar and wind power, we’d be closing in on the sums required to transform the world’s energy systems.

It’s natural following devastating reports like this one to turn to our political leaders for a response. But in an era when politics seems at least temporarily broken, and with a crisis that has a time limit, civil society may need to pressure the business community at least as heavily to divest their oil company shares, to stop underwriting and insuring new fossil fuel projects, and to dramatically increase the money available for clean energy. We’re running out of options, and we’re running out of decades. Over and over we’ve gotten scientific wake-up calls, and over and over we’ve hit the snooze button. If we keep doing that, climate change will no longer be a problem, because calling something a problem implies there’s still a solution.

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+9 # tedrey 2018-11-24 19:44
Remember also that the militaries of the world, led by America, not only divert huge amounts of capital from attacking climate change, but also directly cause more pollution than almost any other single political entity. All for the perpetuation of needless wars. It's maddening.
+4 # Citizen Mike 2018-11-24 22:28
We will not be able to correct this, there is no remedy. Stabilizing global warming directly conflicts with growth in corporate profits, so that's it. There will be global disaster and very likely the entire collapse of modern civilization. We're done, period. Those of you under 50 will live to see it.
+1 # tedrey 2018-11-27 22:41
So you surrender the planet and the species. Then please politly and quietly get out of the way of those of us who still haven't given up.
+4 # DongiC 2018-11-25 00:32
Are you scared yet? If not, you are not paying attention or you are just so miserable that you don't give a damn for human beings or their pathetic attempts to be happy. We have a problem of planetary survival. Earth is sick and getting sicker. So what we do? Get a doctor at the individual level, get a shaman at the collective level. Why not? They have been around for thousands of years quietly doing their thing. And, in many cultures, shamans do not even charge for their services. That's right. Their duty is to provide for the health of the community which takes care of their needs like food and shelter and security.

Why would anyone take on this difficult job at such low pay? They are called to the task by their spirit allies or led by their shamanic parents or some other intervention by divine forces. They usually are found among indigenous peoples but there are some among the white eyes, (yours truly) and their power can rival traditional medicine men. They are, I think, an important resource. One that should be used like all others in this incredibly important struggle for the survival of all of us. What nobler end can there be?
+3 # The Eternal Optimist 2018-11-25 11:35
I'm delighted to see you put this in a spiritual context because that's exactly where some of us think it belongs. I (and my teachers) feel that what's really happening now on our planet is that through the consequences of doing so wrong for so long with exponentially increasing power to affect each other and the environment in which we live, we're forcing ourselves to choose once and for all which master we will serve; Right (according to God's will) or Wrong (against God's will). Granted, we don't seem to be getting the message but as things continue to worsen, maybe we will. And, if and when we do, all the forces of Heaven and Earth will rush to our assistance: in Shakespeare's words, "a consummation devoutly to be wished".

A thought to which I'm clinging is that, while we normally would expect the necessary critical mass shift in awareness to be fifty-percent-p lus, studies have shown that no government has ever been able to resist the combined efforts of more than three-and-a-hal f percent of its citizens, so maybe that critical mass is closer to three percent than fifty!
0 # economagic 2018-11-25 21:07
I had the good fortune to have an anthropology professor who had great admiration for shamanism and provided some explanation of what it is. One of his pithy sayings was "good doctor, good con man." Translated into plain vanilla USian mainline Protestantism that becomes "All healing is ultimately by faith."

(Sorry, I grew up in Tulsa, where Brother Oral Roberts was always a fixture. I didn't really recognize the connection until many years later.)
+1 # Kootenay Coyote 2018-11-25 09:21
Thanks for excellent account.
+6 # The Eternal Optimist 2018-11-25 10:30
What is happening is simply beyond belief.  Take Donald Trump (and his supporters) for a prime example; he knows perfectly well that climate change is a threat of not just historic but possibly terminal proportions (if he didn’t, why would he build a sea wall to protect his Scottish golf course?) but he doesn’t care.  Whether consciously or unconsciously, he (like many others) figures that it’s all over; it’s too late to do anything about it, we’re toast. Besides which, we all die anyway, so it’s no big deal (for us; never mind our descendants or the rest of God’s creatures); might as well stuff our stupid, greedy selves to the max while we still can.  

So he (and his supporters) not only try to ignore the screaming, horrendous, right-in-your-f ace facts; they do everything they can to make things worse!!!   This is madness on a scale never seen before, and we the people have allowed it to hold the reins, until it may actually be too late to save life as we know it on this poor, beautiful, raped planet.  

The answers (the Truth) have always been there; they are still there, but there’s very little time left to awaken to them and we still show little interest in making the inward as well as outward changes that must happen if we are to save ourselves.   Buckle up, brothers and sisters; this is not going to be fun.   

Bill’s picture above the article is worth several thousand words.
+2 # sashapyle 2018-11-25 11:07
The majority of people in this country and around the world know and care. The fact that we simply cannot wrest any power whatsoever from our corrupt governments spells doom. A minority controls the majority —and eagerly looks to profit from the instability and terror their greed has caused.
-4 # BKnowswhitt 2018-11-25 21:37
California fire not caused by global warming:
+3 # economagic 2018-11-26 11:37
[quote name="BKnowswhi tt"]California fire not caused by global warming:

No, the camp fire and a couple of others appear to have been caused by failure of PG&E to maintain their rights of way properly. People who know more than I do about the subject (which is quite a bit) and mountains more than you do have explained the exact mechanisms by which global warming has contributed to fires in the western US.

The principle is learned in Physics 101 (except that introductory Physics is generally a 200-level course (second-year): Continuing to force energy into any system beyond a certain point results not in smooth increases in the intensity of whatever the system is doing, but in chaotic behavior (increasing variability) and eventually catastrophic disintegration.
+2 # DongiC 2018-11-26 05:12
Maybe, the planet needs something more than a shaman (medicine man). Perhaps, it requires a messiah with a message for everybody, even trump and his allies. "Save yourself by saving your planet. For this cause, be prepared to sacrifice everything!"
-6 # BKnowswhitt 2018-11-26 15:14
Global WArmist one world governmenters .. who make false claims and get you to believe it .. them will make false promises to 'fix it' .. same game thousands of years ..

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