Is the Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle About to Explode?

By Tina Nguyen, Vanity Fair

22 September 18

After days of game theory Republicans’ restraint is beginning to crack, even as Kavanaugh’s accuser doubles down.

fter a days-long game of chicken with lawyers for Christine Blasey Ford, the California professor who leveled sexual assault accusations against Brett Kavanaugh, Senate Republicans seemingly achieved a breakthrough Thursday night, reportedly holding a “positive” dialogue with Ford’s team over conditions of her testimony. No “ironclad” agreement had emerged, and certain conditions will likely be nonstarters for Republicans—that Kavanaugh, who has repeatedly denied the allegations, testify first, for example, or that alleged witness Mark Judge be subpoenaed. But the conversation caps off a stunning week in which turmoil and controversy threatened to derail Kavanaugh’s nomination altogether, and foreshadows what could well constitute one of the most significant political events of the Trump era in the days to come.

As the bombshells around Kavanaugh exploded, Republicans found themselves tasked with adhering to the standards of the #MeToo era, offering any response that could be read as giving Ford the benefit of the doubt, while hustling to push the confirmation through nonetheless. After Ford’s lawyers made it known she was open to testifying, but would prefer that an F.B.I. investigation precede questioning, Judiciary Committee head Chuck Grassley released a series of statements knocking down the demand, albeit in a tone of careful restraint. “I certainly understand and respect Dr. Ford’s desire for an investigation of her allegations,” he wrote in one. “That is precisely what the Senate is doing. . . . I remind you that, consistent with Committee rules, Dr. Ford’s prepared testimony and biography are due to the Committee by 10:00 a.m. on Friday, September 21, if she intends to testify on Monday.” If she declined the offer, Republicans reasoned, they should proceed, having done their due diligence. “If we don’t hear from both sides on Monday, let’s vote,” tweeted Senator Bob Corker.

Monday, Ford’s lawyers said in a letter obtained by The New York Times, is out of the question. But now that Ford appears willing to testify, Republican sources told Politico, the committee cannot hold her to an arbitrary date—“they need to be a smidge more accommodating than that.” Several methodologies have been floated for a potential hearing, including having Ford be questioned by a female litigator—“There is a deliberate and conscious effort to not seem like we are attacking the woman in any way,” a source told The Washington Post. Ford’s lawyers said on Thursday that she is opposed to being questioned by outside counsel.

Even as many in the party have appeared to oblige Ford, others have begun to crack, taking aim at everything from her powers of recollection to her choice in attorneys. At one point, Senator Orrin Hatch suggested that Ford may have “mixed up” the attack, while Kathleen Parker speculated at the Post that Ford’s assailant was a “Kavanaugh doppelgänger” at the party. Ed Whelan, a prominent friend of Kavanaugh’s from the Bush era and the president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center, took this theory and ran with it, publishing a massive Twitter thread that relied on Google Maps, house blueprints, and old yearbook photos to propose that a Kavanaugh look-alike, and not the man himself, was to blame for the alleged assault. Whelan went so far as to publish his suspect’s name and photo—something he later apologized for—while behind the scenes, Republicans reportedly whispered that the theory might be credible, citing Whelan’s reputation in right-wing circles. (In response, Ford noted that she had “socialized” with both men, even visiting the alleged doppelgänger in the hospital. “There is zero chance that I would confuse them,” she said. The Post was unable to reach the classmate for comment.)

That plan was likely calculated; according to CNN’s Jeremy Diamond, Kavanaugh’s allies had instructed reporters to keep an eye on Whelan’s Twitter feed. But the usual uncoordinated conspiracies have likewise sprouted on the right, including a bogus theory that Ford’s parents held a grudge against Kavanaugh’s mother (also a judge) for ruling on the foreclosure of their home in the 1990s (in fact, her parents settled with their bankers and the judge dismissed the suit, allowing them to keep their home), and another that purposefully mistook negative reviews on ratemyprofessors.com as originating from Ford’s students. Even more dubious theories have suggested that Ford is connected to Fusion GPS, and that she previously accused Neil Gorsuch of sexual assault. Even Ford’s lawyers came under scrutiny after CNN reported that they were co-hosting a Democratic Party fund-raiser for Senator Tammy Baldwin, where tickets were going for $1,000 apiece. (The two pulled out of the fund-raiser after the CNN report was published.)

While the right boiled over, its figurehead remained conspicuously quiet. As my colleague Gabriel Sherman reported this week, Donald Trump saw very little upside in defending Kavanaugh publicly, knowing he risked losing the midterms if he did so, and comfortable in his list of backup judges should the nominee sink. (Not to mention, he added to a friend, “‘He’s a [George W.] Bush guy, why would I put myself out there defending him?’”) That restrain, however, is wearing thin—late Thursday two sources told Axios that it was becoming near impossible to restrain the president (“Hopefully he can keep it together until Monday,” a White House official told Jonathan Swan. “That’s only, like, another 48 hours right?”) and by Friday morning, he had cracked:

Judge Brett Kavanaugh is a fine man, with an impeccable reputation, who is under assault by radical left wing politicians who don’t want to know the answers, they just want to destroy and delay. Facts don’t matter. I go through this with them every single day in D.C.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018

I have no doubt that, if the attack on Dr. Ford was as bad as she says, charges would have been immediately filed with local Law Enforcement Authorities by either her or her loving parents. I ask that she bring those filings forward so that we can learn date, time, and place!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018

Senator Feinstein and the Democrats held the letter for months, only to release it with a bang after the hearings were OVER - done very purposefully to Obstruct & Resist & Delay. Let her testify, or not, and TAKE THE VOTE!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 21, 2018

It’s true that Trump’s tweets are less an overt attack than an insidious attempt at gaslighting—a deliberate misunderstanding of the many impediments faced by victims of sexual assault. Nevertheless, they rubbed at least one crucial swing vote the wrong way: on Friday afternoon, Susan Collins told reporters she was “appalled” at Trump’s criticism of Ford. Lisa Murkowski, Collins’s as-yet-undecided colleague, has yet to comment on the tweets, but on Thursday afternoon, Alaska’s governor and lieutenant governor both released statements denouncing Kavanaugh for his positions on health care and Alaskan natives, in a seeming effort to sway her. Whether the president has hopelessly alienated both women remains to be seen. But as the debate rages on over the weekend, Kavanaugh’s fate—and, potentially, the fate of the Republican Party writ large—could very well rest on Ford’s impending testimony.