Reich writes: "Even if Democrats win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats in places where Hillary Clinton won or Trump won by less than 3 percentage points - a good midterm victory by historical standards - Dems could still fall short of the House majority, and also lose five Senate seats."

Even with the political wind at their back, the Democrats are starting from a big disadvantage. (photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

I Don't Want to Discourage You About 2018, but You Need to Understand How Daunting the Challenge Is

By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Facebook Page

12 August 17

ven if Democrats win every single 2018 House and Senate race for seats in places where Hillary Clinton won or Trump won by less than 3 percentage points — a good midterm victory by historical standards — Dems could still fall short of the House majority, and also lose five Senate seats. Why?

GOP gerrymandering and Democratic voters’ clustering in urban districts has moved the median House seat well to the right of the nation.

Senate Democrats face particularly bad timing in 2018: They must defend 25 of their 48 seats while Republicans must defend just eight of their 52.

Although Democrats have expanded their advantages in large urban centers in California and New York, these those two states elect only 4 percent of the Senate. Meanwhile, Republicans have made major advances in small rural states like Arkansas, North and South Dakota, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana and West Virginia that wield disproportionate in the Senate relative to their populations.

That doesn’t mean Democrats can’t win back the House and Senate (they won control of both chambers in 2006 despite a Republican-bias that year) but even with the political wind at their back, they’re starting from a big disadvantage.

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