Warren Says She Won't Run, What Now?

By Scott Galindez, Reader Supported News

7 April 15

n St. Patrick’s Day, in Boston, “Hail to the Chief” filled the room as Elizabeth Warren made her way to the podium. The woman who introduced her stopped the music and said that was a song for 2017. Warren ignored the reference and delivered a round of jokes to the annual St. Patrick’s Day Breakfast. She was very good at poking fun at her colleagues, something that will come in handy when she addresses the Correspondents Dinner … Wait, she’s not running.

Okay, she said she won’t run – not once but twice this week. I am almost convinced. Think about it: If she doesn’t want to leave the door open to a run, then why not call MoveOn and tell them to move on. Why not issue a press release telling her supporters that while she is flattered, they should put their energy into getting another Democrat elected president? 

John Cassidy, in a piece in the New Yorker, points out that MoveOn is not giving up and is organizing a major event in New York this month. Lawrence Lessig, the Harvard professor who started a super PAC to try to pressure politicians on campaign finance reform, will give a “TED-style talk” on April 20th on why Warren should run for president. Lessig will be joined by former Obama administration official Van Jones and Zephyr Teachout, who ran for governor of New York. Brian Stewart, MoveOn’s media-relations director, played down the “Today” show interview, writing, “Sen. Warren has repeatedly made clear that she doesn’t plan to run – that’s why we’re running a draft campaign. We are calling on her to run because we believe our country will be better off if she does.”

In a local television piece in Boston, NECN asks why Warren is not calling off the draft movement.

One possible explanation is that Warren is keeping her options open. She could be positioning herself to be the fallback option if Hillary Clinton implodes. The email scandal is an example of what could happen to derail the Clinton campaign. Clinton’s approval ratings have been falling in recent weeks. While she is holding a 50% approval rating, the worrisome number is 48% view her in a negative light. That leaves very little margin of error. With a swing of only a couple of percentage points, she is in negative territory. 

So let’s say we hit July and Clinton’s approval ratings slump while she is on the campaign trail and party leaders start to panic. What if it’s not just progressives who are encouraging Warren to get into the race? What if the big funders start calling for Warren to jump in to save the party? And what if the polls start showing Jeb Bush or another Republican like Scott Walker leading Clinton in the polls? The structure put in place by the Run Warren Run folks would make it a lot easier for Elizabeth Warren to jump in late and put together a formidable organization. Remember, the Run Warren Run staff and volunteers are already phone-banking and identifying Warren supporters. No other campaign has started to do that yet.

I don’t believe that Warren is planning to run at this point, but I do think she is keeping all options on the table. Maybe it is only for leverage to influence the debate. We already have Martin O’Malley sounding like he wants to win over the Warren supporters. 

Adam Green of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee said, "What we are trying to do is incentivize Hillary Clinton and anyone else who may chose to run for president to campaign on many of the economic populist issues that Elizabeth Warren and others have championed."

Warren herself told Rachel Maddow of MSNBC on Wednesday that she would press Clinton – and any other candidates – on issues like student loan debt and Wall Street reform.

Pay close attention to the interview above. The case Elizabeth Warren made for staying in the Senate was a case for what she could do in the White House. Congressional oversight does not have as much influence on government agencies as the executive oversight of the Presidency. If Warren were president, the secretary of labor, secretary of education, and the banking regulators would work for and could be hired and fired by her. She is right, however, that it is the issues that are most important.

So maybe that will be all there is to it. The threat of a Warren candidacy may influence Hillary enough to get her to address the issues that will motivate Warren supporters to support the former first lady. Or if the former secretary of state doesn’t heed the call, that door, only barely open right now, could swing wide open – and Elizabeth Warren might walk through and enter the race after all.

Whatever the answer is, the effort by the Run Warren Run folks is having a positive impact on the race. If the effect is only to influence the rest of the presidential candidates on the issues, then it is worth supporting. If in the end the effort succeeds, and Warren enters the race, then we have a real debate on the issues important to millions of Americans. We win either way.

Scott Galindez attended Syracuse University, where he first became politically active. The writings of El Salvador's slain archbishop Oscar Romero and the on-campus South Africa divestment movement converted him from a Reagan supporter to an activist for Peace and Justice. Over the years he has been influenced by the likes of Philip Berrigan, William Thomas, Mitch Snyder, Don White, Lisa Fithian, and Paul Wellstone. Scott met Marc Ash while organizing counterinaugural events after George W. Bush's first stolen election. Scott will be spending a year covering the presidential election from Iowa.

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