|
FOCUS: How to Stop the Make America Sick Again Act |
|
|
Monday, 13 March 2017 10:22 |
|
Galindez writes: "This legislation can be stopped in the United States Senate. We only need to flip a couple of senators. Here are some talking points that you can use with your friends and family."
Demonstrators hold signs in support of the Affordable Care Act in Philadelphia on Jan. 25, 2017. (photo: Tom Mihalek/Reuters)

How to Stop the Make America Sick Again Act
By Scott Galindez, Reader Supported News
13 March 17
UPDATE: The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office released its cost estimate today. The study concludes that 24 million people would lose their health care over the next decade.
or the first time that I know of, I agree with Senator Tom Cotton. Why the rush? The Republicans are on pace to repeal and replace Obamacare before the Congressional Budget Office can put a price tag on their plan. I wonder if they know the numbers don’t add up and if that’s the reason for their urgency.
This legislation can be stopped in the United States Senate. We only need to flip a couple of senators. Here are some talking points that you can use with your friends and family. You should also use them to contact your senators, especially the Republican senators. I plan to go to a Town Hall with Senator Joni Ernst on Friday. It will be a long shot flipping her or Senator Grassley in my state, but I will try. Lives depend on it.
Premiums and co-pays will rise
The most important question to ask is what in this bill lowers costs for the consumer. Republicans will argue that they are allowing insurance companies to create cheaper plans for young people. My response to that is maybe. It is true that they can charge young people five times less, but will the insurance companies see it that way? They might just look at it the other way. They can charge older people five times more — up to 67% more. On top of that, when you get health insurance after not having insurance for a period, they can charge a 30% premium.
Remember, with no mandate, the pool shrinks. There is nothing in this bill that controls costs to consumers. In fact, it takes away some parts of the Affordable Care Act that were designed to lower costs. The GOP plan takes away the mandate, so they have to make up for the lost revenue to insurance companies. They do that by allowing them to charge more.
Wealthy people are the big winners
The biggest winners are the wealthy, of course. The GOP replacement plan would eliminate taxes, giving a windfall to the one percent. Let’s face it, opposition to Obamacare comes from the rich. Poor people who oppose Obamacare are opposing their best interests. Even young people who would have been paying more one day under Obamacare would benefit, because everyone grows old and gets sick.
Older, sicker people would pay more
The GOP plan eliminates Obamacare protections for older, less healthy people. Under Obamacare, insurance companies can only charge their elderly patients three times more than they charge younger, healthy patients. That cap would be raised to five times more, up to 67%. The hope is that more young people will buy in when the price tag goes down. The reality is that young people are still going to feel they are healthy and don’t need insurance.
They say they will still cover people with pre-existing conditions. Technically, it is true that insurance companies will not be able to deny coverage to patients with pre-existing conditions. They will instead price them out of the market. We will return to the days when people went without healthcare because they couldn’t afford a plan. That was me for nearly a decade, during which time my lack of coverage allowed my diabetes to damage my kidneys.
Blue state residents will pay more
Under Obamacare, if you live in a place where health coverage costs more, you get a higher credit or subsidy than you would in a less expensive market. The GOP eliminates that, so if you live in California you will get the same credit that someone in Montana gets, even though the cost of a plan in Montana is lower than it is in California.
The biggest losers are Medicaid recipients
Nothing changes until 2019. Why would it? The federal government is footing the bill until 2020. Beginning in 2020, the Republican plan will reduce the federal contribution, shifting control of Medicaid to the states. If healthcare costs drop, states might be able to keep current coverage levels. More likely, states will be forced to reduce the coverage they are currently providing to Medicaid recipients as the federal contribution drops. In other words, the Republicans will starve Medicaid.
Hospitals will also lose
It’s simple: with no mandate, fewer people will have insurance when they arrive at the emergency room. Under Obamacare, the levels of unpaid treatment provided by our nation’s hospitals dropped significantly. We will be returning to the day when people waited to get treatment until it became an emergency, whereas if they had healthcare they would have received treatment sooner, and the illness would have been less severe.
Use these talking points when debating the issue with your friends, family, and elected officials. Call your senators and members of Congress, write them letters, and sign petitions. Lives are on the line. Do everything you can stop this disastrous legislation.
Scott Galindez attended Syracuse University, where he first became politically active. The writings of El Salvador's slain archbishop Oscar Romero and the on-campus South Africa divestment movement converted him from a Reagan supporter to an activist for Peace and Justice. Over the years he has been influenced by the likes of Philip Berrigan, William Thomas, Mitch Snyder, Don White, Lisa Fithian, and Paul Wellstone. Scott met Marc Ash while organizing counterinaugural events after George W. Bush's first stolen election. Scott moved to Des Moines in 2015 to cover the Iowa Caucus.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

|
|
There Is No Deep State |
|
|
Monday, 13 March 2017 08:24 |
|
Remnick writes: "The problem in Washington is not a conspiracy against the President; it's the President himself."
Donald Trump. (photo: Martin Schoeller/TIME)

There Is No Deep State
By David Remnick, The New Yorker
13 March 17
The problem in Washington is not a conspiracy against the President; it’s the President himself.
ne evening in 1970, a young Navy lieutenant found himself outside the White House Situation Room with a parcel of sensitive Pentagon documents, waiting for someone to sign for them. He sat down beside a man in late middle age, who wore a dark suit and an unsmiling expression. “There was nothing overbearing in his attentiveness,” the officer recalled years later. “But his eyes were darting in a kind of gentlemanly surveillance.” The two men fell into conversation. The lieutenant mentioned that he had been taking graduate courses at George Washington University. The older man said that he had gone to law school at G.W. at night. Now he was at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, working under J. Edgar Hoover. He encouraged the young man to pursue only employment that interested him, and, shortly afterward, the officer applied for a job as a reporter at the Washington Post. He flunked the tryout and went to work instead for a suburban weekly. But he kept in touch with his friend, seeing him as a kind of career counsellor and, not without guile, as a potential source. Soon, the F.B.I. man confided in the reporter, telling him that he believed that the Nixon Administration was corrupt, paranoid, and trying to infringe on the independence of the Bureau. In the summer of 1971, both men were promoted, one to the No. 3 job at the F.B.I., the other to the metropolitan staff of the Post. Within a year, their friendship became the most important reporter-source relationship in modern history. The reporter was Bob Woodward, who, with Carl Bernstein, led the coverage of the Watergate scandal and the fall of Richard Nixon. The F.B.I. man was Mark Felt, who, until he was in his nineties and revealed himself as Woodward’s source, was known to the world only as Deep Throat. Was Deep Throat part of an American Deep State? Some of Donald Trump’s most ardent supporters (and, in a different, cautionary spirit, a few people on the left) have taken to using “the Deep State” to describe a nexus of institutions—the intelligence agencies, the military, powerful financial interests, Silicon Valley, various federal bureaucracies—that, they believe, are conspiring to smear and stymie a President and bring him low. “Deep State” comes from the Turkish derin devlet, a clandestine network, including military and intelligence officers, along with civilian allies, whose mission was to protect the secular order established, in 1923, by the father figure of post-Ottoman Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. It was behind at least four coups, and it surveilled and murdered reporters, dissidents, Communists, Kurds, and Islamists. The Deep State takes a similar form in Pakistan, with its powerful intelligence service, the I.S.I., and in Egypt, where the military establishment is tied to some of the largest business interests in the country. One day earlier this month in Palm Beach, just after 6 A.M., the President went on a vengeful Twitter binge. Trump reads little but has declared himself “the Ernest Hemingway of a hundred and forty characters,” and that morning he levelled what the Times rightly called “one of the most consequential accusations made by one president against another in American history.” With no evidence, save the ravings of the talk-radio host Mark Levin and an account, in Breitbart News, of Levin’s charges of a “silent coup,” Trump accused President Obama of tapping his “wires” at Trump Tower. He compared the unsubstantiated offense to “McCarthyism” and “Nixon/Watergate.” By now, Trump’s tactics are familiar. Schooled by Roy Cohn, Joseph McCarthy’s protégé, in the dark arts of rage, deflection, insult, and conspiracy-mongering, Trump ignited his political career with “birtherism,” and he has kept close by his side Steve Bannon, formerly of Breitbart, who traffics in tinfoil-hat theories of race, immigration, and foreign affairs. Together, they have artfully hijacked the notion of “fake news,” turning it around as a weapon of insult, diversion, division, and attack. One does not have to be ignorant of the C.I.A.’s abuses—or of history, in general—to reject the idea of an American Deep State. Previous Presidents have felt resistance, or worse, from elements in the federal bureaucracies: Eisenhower warned of the “military-industrial complex”; L.B.J. felt pressure from the Pentagon; Obama’s Syria policy was rebuked by the State Department through its “dissent channel.” But to use the term as it is used in Turkey, Pakistan, or Egypt is to assume that all these institutions constitute part of a subterranean web of common and nefarious purpose. The reason that Trump is so eager to take a conspiratorial view of everything from the C.I.A. to CNN is that an astonishing array of individuals have spoken out or acted against him. Above all, he is infuriated that intelligence and investigative services have been looking into possible Russian connections to him, his advisers, his campaign, and his financial interests. Bannon and Trump, according to the Post, refer to the Deep State only in private, but their surrogates feel no hesitation about doing so openly. “We are talking about the emergence of a Deep State led by Barack Obama, and that is something we should prevent,” Representative Steve King, of Iowa, said. “The person who understands this best is Steve Bannon, and I would think that he’s advocating to make some moves to fix it.” Trump and Bannon would undoubtedly have called Deep Throat glaring evidence of an American Deep State. Felt was a Hoover loyalist; he oversaw the F.B.I.’s pursuit of radical groups like the Weather Underground and instituted illegal searches, known as “black-bag jobs.” Yet he was deeply offended that the President and his top aides ran what constituted a criminal operation out of the White House, and he risked everything to guide Woodward. The level of risk became clear in October, 1972, when Nixon’s aide H. R. Haldeman told him that Felt was the likely source. “Now, why the hell would he do that?” Nixon said. “Is he Catholic?” “Jewish,” Haldeman replied. “Christ, [they] put a Jew in there,” Nixon said. “That could explain it, too.” (It didn’t, quite. Felt was not Jewish.) The problem in Washington is not a Deep State; the problem is a shallow man—an untruthful, vain, vindictive, alarmingly erratic President. In order to pass fair and proper judgment, the public deserves a full airing of everything from Trump’s tax returns and business entanglements to an accounting of whether he has been, in some way, compromised. Journalists can, and will, do a lot. But the courts, law enforcement, and Congress—without fear or favor—are responsible for such an investigation. Only if government officials take to heart their designation as “public servants” will justice prevail.

|
|
|
College Students Should Resist - Not Silence - Their Political Foes |
|
|
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=19600"><span class="small">Bill McKibben, Guardian UK</span></a>
|
|
Sunday, 12 March 2017 12:50 |
|
McKibben writes: "Canniness is a virtue, at least for organizers. When protest goes well - the Women's Marches, the airport demonstrations - it helps immeasurably, limiting the right's ability to act or at least exacting a high price in political capital. But protest can go badly too, and when it does it gives the bad guys a gift."
Bill McKibben. (photo: rightlivelihood.org)

College Students Should Resist - Not Silence - Their Political Foes
By Bill McKibben, Guardian UK
12 March 17
Campuses can be sites of powerful protest and activism – if students and faculty use some care
anniness is a virtue, at least for organizers. When protest goes well – the Women’s Marches, the airport demonstrations – it helps immeasurably, limiting the right’s ability to act or at least exacting a high price in political capital. But protest can go badly too, and when it does it gives the bad guys a gift.
I should have gotten a chance to see this close up last week, because Middlebury College in Vermont, where I teach, had a protest go mostly sour. But since my mother was taken to the emergency room early in the week, I was camped out in her hospital room, not on campus. Still, the picture of events that emerges from Facebook and campus chat rooms is fairly clear.
It began when conservative students at the college invited a man named Charles Murray to speak on campus. Murray is a professional troll – “Milo with a doctorate”, as one observer described him – who made his bones a quarter century ago with a vile book, The Bell Curve, arguing that intelligence tests showed black people less able. Academics of all stripes have savaged the book’s methodology and conclusions, but back in the day it was one of the many bulwarks of the nation’s ugly rightward and racist shift.
So, many students and faculty at Middlebury were mad that he was coming, as they should have been – it’s gross, in particular, that students of color should have to deal with this kind of aggressive insult to their legitimacy. But of course, that was the point for Murray and his enablers at the American Enterprise Institute: they’re trolls.
They want these kinds of fights, over and over, as part of their campaign to discredit academia and multiculturalism. And once some students had made the invitation, the die was cast, if only because Americans by and large believe that colleges and universities should be open to all ideas (and they’re probably right to think so, if for no other reason than it’s hard to imagine the committee that could vet what was proper and what wasn’t).
College authorities made their share of mistakes in the days that followed: there was no real reason for the political science department to officially support Murray’s visit, for instance. But other parts of the college reacted the right way: the math department, say, which held a series of seminars to demonstrate why Murray’s statistical methods were rubbish.
Instead, it was goodhearted campus activists – both some students and some faculty – that really fell for the troller’s bait.
Some began demanding that the college cancel the visit, and others threatened to prevent him from speaking. They failed at the first task but they largely succeeded at the second: when Murray arrived on Thursday he was greeted by a wall of noise, as protesters chanted and screamed him down.
When administrators took him off to a room where his remarks, and questions from a professor, could be livestreamed, a few people pulled fire alarms. When they tried to rush Murray from the building, a small throng, many in masks, blocked the car and sent the professor who had been escorting the racist to the hospital with a concussion.
The result was predictable: Murray emerged with new standing, a largely forgotten hack with a renewed lease on public life, indeed now a martyr to the cause of free speech. And anti-racist activism took a hit, the powerful progressive virtue of openness overshadowed by apparent intolerance. No one should be surprised at the outcome: in America, anyway, shouting someone down “reads” badly to the larger public, every single time. And it is precisely the job of activists to figure out how things are going to read, lest they do real damage to important causes – damage, as in this case, that will inevitably fall mostly on people with fewer resources than Middlebury students.
One way of saying this is – activism is a science with fairly predictable rules: history has shown what does and doesn’t work. And what doesn’t work is rage; what does work is dignity. That same week in Selma, the Rev William Barber (the North Carolina pastor and leader of the Moral Monday movement who is the closest thing contemporary America has to a Dr King) confronted a similar situation.
The state’s attorney general, in the Jeff Sessions tradition, came to an African American church to explain why his proposed voter ID laws were a good idea. It’s hard to imagine a more obnoxious man or setting: he was figuratively spitting on the graves of those who died in the Selma march for voting rights. But they did not shout him down: they simply got up and exited the church to hold a well-attended press conference outside. (Here’s typical coverage of that effort.)
Middlebury students that I’ve talked to were sad and annoyed that their “voices weren’t heard” amidst the melee. They’re right to be sad: the things they had to say about inclusion, about marginalization, and about the debilitating effects of pseudo-scientific racism were profound, and markedly more interesting than Murray’s recycled bile.
But they were wrong to be annoyed, any more than people who climb into a shower should be annoyed at getting wet. If you shout down a speaker, that’s what people will remember, period. If they’d wanted to be heard, then they needed, like the Rev Barber, to be more creative.
Imagine if they’d taken the available seats, and then got up and peacefully left, not shouting but singing, or in pure silence. Imagine, on the next campus where Murray takes his nasty road show, if students and faculty organize to shame the college community into boycotting the talk, and instead hold a teach-in outside. Imagine if they don’t take the bait.
This kind of discipline is hard work. I’ve spent much of the last decade helping organize protests large-scale and small; one key part of the planning always involves making sure that necessary anger doesn’t turn into self-defeating rage. That’s why there are trainings beforehand, and why people sign pledges of nonviolence, and why there are marshals from within the ranks to make sure people don’t break that discipline.
College students are completely capable of this (it’s with seven Middlebury students that I formed the climate campaign 350.org, which has gone on to organize more rallies in more places than perhaps any movement in history). But everyone involved needs to take it for the serious task it is, understanding that emotion is as much an enemy as a friend for activists. There’s no easy version of activism, any more than there is of physics or French or the other tasks college students seriously engage in. In fact, protest is probably a subject, like first aid or how to use the fire extinguisher, that college freshmen should learn.
Because there are going to be plenty of opportunities to try again in the years ahead, since trolling is more or less what Donald Trump and Steve Bannon do. There will be more Milos and more Murrays. When we strengthen their hands, we weaken further the most vulnerable people on our planet, be they immigrants facing deportation or southern black Americans facing voter suppression laws or peasant farmers facing rising oceans. That’s not right or wrong, that’s just how it works.

|
|
FOCUS | The Surge Delusion: An Iraq War Anniversary to Forget |
|
|
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=49236"><span class="small">Danny Sjursen, TomDispatch</span></a>
|
|
Sunday, 12 March 2017 11:08 |
|
Sjursen writes: "The vast majority of my fellow military officers (in my experience), and a surprisingly bipartisan array of congressional representatives still perpetuate - and seemingly believe - not only the surge myth, but the stale, discredited ideologies at its root."
Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster has been named National Security Adviser to President Trump. (photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP/Getty Images)

The Surge Delusion: An Iraq War Anniversary to Forget
By Danny Sjursen, TomDispatch
12 March 17
Every now and then, I think back to the millions of people who turned out in this country and across the globe in early 2003 to protest the coming invasion of Iraq. Until the recent Women’s March against Donald Trump, that may have been the largest set of demonstrations in American history or, at the very least, the largest against a war that had yet to be launched. Those who participated will remember that the protests were also a sea of homemade signs, some sardonic (“Remember when presidents were smart and bombs were dumb?"), some blunt (“Contain Saddam -- and Bush”), some pointed indeed (“Pre-emptive war is terrorism"). In one of those demonstrations, I was carrying a sign which read “The Bush administration is a material breach” (a reference to that crew’s insistence that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was in “material breach” of a U.N. resolution for not fully disclosing its efforts to produce weapons of mass destruction... you know, those non-existent nukes that were slated to create future mushroom clouds over American cities). There was even one humorous sign I noted then that seems relevant to our Dystrumpian moment and the president's stated wishes to "keep" Iraqi oil: "How did USA's oil get under Iraq's sand?"
But here’s the essential thing: the invasion to come had disaster written all over it and millions of people saw that perfectly clearly. They were, of course, the ones who weren’t consulted then and would never be remembered when what they feared actually occurred and played out so catastrophically. Unlike those who got us into the Iraq nightmare, one of the great blunders of modern times, or those who later prosecuted the ongoing war there, they would never be asked for their reflections on it.
They are now largely forgotten, as is the thought that, then as now, it didn’t necessarily take an expert to tell you the obvious: that America’s never-ending wars in the Middle East would come to no good; that all the promises about “winning,” whether then or today, have been or will prove so much hogwash. It didn't take an expert, then or now, to know that Washington’s military-first efforts to “win” across the Greater Middle East were fated to end badly, whether we’re talking about the famed “surge” of 2007 in Iraq, President Obama’s “surge” in Afghanistan in 2009, or, in the age of Trump, the sudden surge of American air strikes in Yemen in the wake of a failed and now-controversial raid in which a Navy SEAL and possibly 10 children died. It seems that those included the most intensive day of drone strikes ever ordered and, more generally, an intensification of the Obama era campaign in that country. (This from a president who was supposed to be a noninterventionist!)
From 2003 on, it hasn’t been all that difficult to see just how poorly all of this would play out even as it happened. Of the surge in Iraq, for example, I wrote in 2008: “If you want a prediction, here it is and it couldn't be simpler: This cannot end well. Not for Washington. Not for the U.S. military. Not for Americans. And, above all, not for Iraqis.” And I was hardly alone in my “insight.”
Nonetheless, no matter what I or others outside the American mainstream media wrote at the time (and since), the surge’s cachet remained -- and remains -- strong indeed. That’s why it couldn’t be more useful to hear from an actual expert on just what went wrong and why. On the 10th anniversary of the original “surge” in Iraq, Major Danny Sjursen, TomDispatch regular, former history instructor at West Point, and the author of Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge, offers a personal look at the building of a legend, which helped make careers, including those of Trump’s top generals, and kept a disastrous war going.
-Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch
The Surge Delusion An Iraq War Anniversary to Forget
he other day, I found myself flipping through old photos from my time in Iraq. One in particular from October 2006 stood out. I see my 23-year-old self, along with my platoon. We’re still at Camp Buerhing in Kuwait, posing in front of our squadron logo splashed across a huge concrete barrier. It was a tradition by then, three and a half years after the invasion of neighboring Iraq, for every Army, Marine, and even Air Force battalion at that camp to proudly paint its unit emblem on one of those large, ubiquitous barricades.
Gazing at that photo, it’s hard for me to believe that it was taken a decade ago. Those were Iraq’s bad old days, just before General David Petraeus’s fabled “surge” campaign that has since become the stuff of legend, a defining event for American military professionals. The term has permanently entered the martial lexicon and now it’s everywhere. We soldiers stay late at work because we need to “surge” on the latest PowerPoint presentation. To inject extra effort into anything (no matter how mundane) is to “surge.” Nor is the term’s use limited to the military vernacular. Within the first few weeks of the Trump administration, the Wall Street Journal, for instance, reported on a deportation "surge."
For many career soldiers, the surge era (2007-2011) provides a kind of vindication for all those years of effort and seeming failure, a brief window into what might have been and a proof certain of the enduring utility of force. When it comes to that long-gone surge, senior leaders still talk the talk on its alleged success as though reciting scripture. Take retired general, surge architect, and former CIA Director Petraeus. As recently as 2013, he wrote a Foreign Policy piece entitled “How We Won in Iraq.” Now “win” is a bold word indeed. Yet few in our American world would think to question its accuracy. After all, Petraeus was a general, and in an era when Americans have little or no faith in other public institutions, polls show nearly everyone trusts the military. Of course, no one asks whether this is healthy for the republic. No matter, the surge’s success is, by now, a given among Washington’s policy elite.
Recently, for instance, I listened to a podcast of a Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) panel discussion that promoted a common set of myths about the glories of the surge. What I heard should be shocking, but it’s not. The group peddled a common myth about the surge’s inherent wisdom that may soon become far more dangerous in the “go big” military era of Donald Trump.
CFR’s three guests -- retired General Raymond Odierno, former commander of Multinational Forces in Iraq and now a senior adviser to JPMorgan Chase; Meghan O’Sullivan, former deputy national security adviser under President George W. Bush; and Christopher Kojm, former senior adviser to the Iraq Study Group -- had remarkably similar views. No dissenting voices were included. All three had been enthusiastic promoters of the surge in 2006-2007 and continue to market the myth of its success. While recognizing the unmistakable failure of the post-surge American effort in Iraq, each still firmly believes in the inherent validity of that “strategy.” I listened for more than an hour waiting for a single dissenting thought. The silence was deafening.
Establishing the Bona Fides of Victory in Washington, If Not Iraq
With the madness of the 24-hour news cycle pin-balling us from one Trump “crisis” to another, who has time for honest reflection about that surge on its 10th anniversary? Few even remember the controversy, turmoil, and drama of those days, but believe me, it’s something I’ll never forget. I led a scout platoon in Baghdad and my unit was a few months into a nasty deployment when we first heard the term “surge.” Iraq was by then falling apart and violence was at an all-time high with insurgents killing scores of Americans each month. The nascent central government, supported by the Bush administration, was in turmoil and, to top it all off, the Sunni and Shia were already fighting a civil war in the streets.
In November 2006, just a month into our deployment, Democrats won control over both houses of Congress in what was interpreted as a negative referendum on that war. A humbler, more reticent or reflective president might have backed off, cut his losses, and begun a withdrawal from that country, but not George W. Bush. He doubled down, announcing in January 2007 an infusion of 30,000 additional troops and a new "strategy" for victory, a temporary surge that would provide time, space, and security for the new Iraqi government to reconcile the country’s warring ethnic groups and factions, while incorporating minority groups into the largely Shiite, Baghdad-based power structure.
Soon after, my unit along with nearly every other American already in theater received word that our tours had been extended by three months -- 15 months in all, which then seemed like an eternity. I sat against a wall and chain-smoked nearly a pack of cigarettes before passing the word on to my platoon. And so it began.
Less than nine months later, the administration paraded General Petraeus, decked out in full dress uniform, at congressional hearings to plug the strategy, sell the surge, and warn against a premature withdrawal from Iraq. What a selling job it proved to be. It established the bona fides of victory in Washington, if not Iraq.
The man was compelling and over the next three years violence did, in fact, drop. The additional troops and “new” counterinsurgency tactics were, however, only part of the story. In an orgy of killing in Baghdad and many other cities, the two main sects ethnically cleansed neighborhoods, expelling each other into a series of highly segregated enclaves. The capital, for instance, essentially became a Shiite city. In a sense, the civil war had, momentarily at least, run its course.
In addition, the U.S. military had successfully, though again only temporarily, convinced many previously rebellious Sunni tribes to switch sides in exchange for money, support, and help in getting rid of the overly fundamentalist and brutal terror outfit, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). For the time being, AQI seemed to the tribal leaders like a bigger threat than the Shiites in Baghdad. For this, the Sunnis briefly bet on the U.S. without ever fully trusting or accepting Shiite-Baghdad’s suzerainty. Think of this as a tactical pause -- not that the surge’s architects and supporters saw (or see) it that way.
Which brings us back to that CFR panel. The most essential assumption of all three speakers was this: the U.S. needed to establish “security first” in Iraq before that country’s government, set in place by the American occupation, could begin to make political progress. They still don’t seem to understand that, whatever the bright hopes of surge enthusiasts at the time, no true political settlement was ever likely, with or without the surge.
America’s man in Baghdad, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, was already in the process of becoming a sectarian strongman, hell-bent on alienating the country’s Sunni and Kurdish minorities. Even 60,000 or 90,000 more American troops couldn’t have solved that problem because the surge was incapable of addressing, and barely pretended to face, the true conundrum of the invasion and occupation: any American-directed version of Iraqi “democracy” would invariably usher in Shia-majority dominance over a largely synthetic state. The real question no surge cheerleaders publicly asked (or ask to this day) was whether an invading foreign entity was even capable of imposing an inclusive political settlement there. To assume that the United States could have done so smacks of a faith-based as opposed to reality-based worldview -- another version of a deep and abiding belief in American exceptionalism.
A Surge Believer as National Security Adviser?
Sadly, that panel still epitomizes respectable thought on the Iraq surge and what followed from it. Here’s the problem: Republican (and some Democratic) policymakers, along with supposedly "outside the box" military commanders, confused new tactics with an effective strategy, which, in the wake of the disastrous decision to invade, may have been a contradiction in terms. Add in an additional myth -- that the U.S. military turned on a dime in 2007, empowering a set of truly creative, open-minded thinkers, who brought America to the edge of victory -- and you have the makings of the surge legend.
While surge-era generals like Petraeus and Odierno and younger colonels like John Nagl and Peter Mansoor were intelligent, competent officers, when it came to Iraq their strategic insights and worldview remained surprisingly narrow and conventional. Their bedrock belief was that somewhere in the Iraqi chaos there just had to be an American military solution. Enamored with the magical efficacy of counterinsurgency tactics, they bet wrong on the capacity of the U.S. government or its military to transform the chaotic, unmovable facts on the ground in Iraq.
This might matter little today if senior officers who led the Army and Marine Corps during the surge hadn’t found their way into key positions in the Trump administration. To take one example, new National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster is something of a legendary figure in the U.S. Army. A hero of the First Gulf War of 1991, he taught history at West Point, commanded a regiment in Iraq in the post-invasion years, fought national-level corruption in Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011, and recently led the Army Capabilities Integration Center -- the organization charged with developing the Army’s future concepts and force modernization.
A classic soldier-scholar with a doctorate in history, he authored a well-regarded book on the Vietnam War. I count myself among his many admirers. Nonetheless, his elevation to a policy-making position should raise troubling questions, since he, too, is a surge admirer. In 2005-2006, then-Colonel McMaster commanded the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Tal Afar, Iraq, a city wracked by insurgency and riven with sectarian divisions. According to surge lore, he oversaw a miracle turnaround of the situation in that dangerous city, previewing the Petraeus surge to come.
It’s a story that briefs well and McMaster’s unit did indeed achieve some notable successes during its one-year deployment, but -- and this is a big “but” -- those gains proved fleeting. The Sunnis of that city were never reconciled with the Shiite-dominated Baghdad government nor were their grievances addressed, so violence returned. In 2014, just three years after the departure of U.S. troops from Iraq, Tal Afar became one of the first Iraqi cities conquered by the militants of the new Islamic State.
Remember that the whole purpose of the surge had been to provide time and space for Iraqi national reconciliation. That never truly occurred -- not in Tal Afar or elsewhere. McMaster’s own academic expert, Army reservist Ahmed Hashim, recognized the essential issue back in 2006: “The problem is, what happens when this unit leaves? It’s only a one-year vision, and then we rotate out.”
The Real-World Costs of Strategic Failure
Difficult as it is to predict the future, there’s something ominous about seeing Generals H.R. McMaster, James Mattis, and John Kelly, all holdovers of sorts from the surge generation, take key positions in Donald Trump’s administration where they will once again face surge-like issues and dilemmas in the Greater Middle East. The question is: Has their thinking on such problems developed since the surge era?
Keep in mind that a surprising number of military officers and policymakers still subscribe to the idea that just a little more effort, a couple of more years, a few thousand extra troops, a bit more political gumption, and it might all have spelled victory in Iraq. Such would’ve-could’ve-should’ve apologetics are, of course, historically dangerous. The German Wehrmacht carefully cultivated a similar “stab-in-the-back” myth to explain that it was the politicians, not the army, that had actually lost World War I. A decade later, many of those disgruntled German military professionals embraced the bellicose language of a certain well-known fascist demagogue.
In less drastic but still detrimental fashion, in the years after 1973, the new all-volunteer U.S. Army grew increasingly estranged from the civilian population. This was, in part, because many veteran officers blamed America’s defeat in Vietnam on home-front antiwar protestors who were (gasp!) simply exercising their constitutional rights. Perhaps in place of self-serving, vindicating myths, an honest, critical, and realistic assessment of the past would better advance future strategy and operations.
Those Council on Foreign Relations panelists, the vast majority of my fellow military officers (in my experience), and a surprisingly bipartisan array of congressional representatives still perpetuate -- and seemingly believe -- not only the surge myth, but the stale, discredited ideologies at its root: American exceptionalism, this country’s supposed status as the globe’s "indispensable" nation, and the magical capabilities of our high-tech military.
Ironically, U.S. military doctrine purports to value "critical" and "creative" thinking. Unfortunately, that emphasis hardly fits with the realities of promotion and command selection. A recent empirical analysis by faculty from West Point’s Department of Behavioral Sciences and Leadership concluded that “promotion and command boards may actually penalize officers for their conceptual ability.” In other words, more intelligent, educated, and skeptical officers – those with “higher cognitive ability,” according to the study -- don't fare so well in the competitive promotion game.
Which helps explain much, since truly critical thinkers would have challenged the various myths surrounding the surge and the unbalanced tactics that inspired the legend. The defense establishment has just given President Trump the “preliminary draft” for the “comprehensive strategy” he requested to beat ISIS. What will you bet that their suggestions are still infused with surge thinking?
Colonel Dale Eikemeier and Arthur Lykke Jr. have suggested that effective strategy involves the balancing of ends (desired outcomes), ways (methods), and means (available resources), while limiting risk. At least retrospectively, it boggles the mind that, in 2006-2007, a plurality of political and military thinkers presumed Washington could successfully achieve such an equilibrium in Iraq by military means. As they defined them at the time, their desired outcomes were outrageous: halt a brutal sectarian civil war, defeat a nationalist-Islamist insurgency, facilitate a political settlement in an ethno-religiously divided synthetic state, and restore essential civil services. In what universe did policymakers expect our means -- a finite professional (non-conscripted) army in an alien land with help from the State Department (whose staff globally is about the size of one army division) -- to achieve such wildly inflated ambitions?
As for ways, the outrageous size disparity between that military and an undersized diplomatic corps ensured that either American methods would be almost purely military in nature or require that soldiers transform themselves into diplomats, social workers, and city councilmen. (In those days, it was called “nation building.”) Armed with eternal, can-do optimism, the Army tried a bit of both.
The band-aid momentarily stemmed the bleeding, but proved predictably incapable of healing the wound. In the process, the military’s sacrifice was substantial (960 dead in the surge’s first year alone), but the long-term results were negligible. The shocking imbalance between the three strategic “legs of the stool” (ends, ways, and means) guaranteed an unacceptable level of risk. American troops and Iraqi civilians bore the brunt of that peril. No surprise there. Still, it boggles the mind how few dissenting voices emerged from our military and political ranks at the time. Even more frightening is the continuing resonance of the surge myth 10 years later in the face of overwhelming evidence of Iraq’s turmoil and the ineffectiveness of foreign nation-building more generally. (See: Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya.)
Memory is a tricky thing. As historian Dale Andrade wrote, “No matter how the war in Iraq ends, it seems likely that it will soon replace Vietnam as the military’s new touchstone for lessons learned.” Under the circumstances, that’s scary. Just as the military and public misunderstood Vietnam, too many contemporary officers and politicians rely on a mythical rendering of the ongoing Iraq War. That memory will, in turn, deeply influence what Americans learn from the enduring campaigns in the Middle East and so tragically shape future U.S. military strategy.
Now, look at that photo of mine one more time and consider the real-world costs of strategic failure. Four of those men are dead; one is paralyzed; and three of the others were wounded. That was 10 years ago, and as for the Middle East, it’s worse than we found it. Thought about a certain way, in the end it wasn’t the U.S. military, but various terror groups that surged most effectively.
Call me a skeptic, but my sense is that those painted concrete barriers in the Kuwaiti desert will one day serve as so many American ziggurats, monuments to a profound failure of the imagination. Let’s hope the Council on Foreign Relations invites some genuinely creative, dissenting voices to its 20th anniversary panel commemorating the famous Iraq surge. But I won’t hold my breath.
Major Danny Sjursen, a TomDispatch regular, is a U.S. Army strategist and former history instructor at West Point. He served tours with reconnaissance units in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has written a memoir and critical analysis of the Iraq War, Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge. He lives with his wife and four sons near Fort Leavenworth, Kansas.
[Note: The views expressed in this article are those of the author, expressed in an unofficial capacity, and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Command and General Staff College, Department of the Army, Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.]

|
|