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Waiting for the Bomb to Drop Print
Monday, 08 January 2018 09:29

Cohen writes: "There are sounds, for those who can hear them, of the preliminary and muffled drumbeats of war."

Kim Jong Un. (photo: Kyodo/Reuters)
Kim Jong Un. (photo: Kyodo/Reuters)


Waiting for the Bomb to Drop

By Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic

08 January 18


There are sounds, for those who can hear them, of the preliminary and muffled drumbeats of war.

he decision to move the American embassy to Jerusalem makes a war in Korea more likely. Not because there is any direct connection between the two, nor because it was a bad idea, recognizing as it did the simple fact that the western part of Jerusalem has been Israel’s capital for over 70 years and will most assuredly remain so. The dangerous bit, rather, was when pundits and diplomats wrung their hands and predicted calamity and (far more predictably) nothing happened. The Arab street grumbled, while Cairo, Riyadh, and Abu Dhabi looked the other way, and Donald Trump could be forgiven for thinking that his instincts had been proven entirely correct.

And therein lies the danger. As we can see from the irritable id that manifests itself in his tweets, Trump believes that he has been an exceptionally successful president, who deserves credit for the absence of deaths from plane crashes, a soaring stock market, and a tax cut rammed through on a completely partisan basis by a Republican majority that has thirsted for little else for decades. Those who made fun of his claims that he is smarter than his generals and that there is no need for a fully staffed State Department because he is around, or mocked his boasts that his nuclear button is bigger and better than Kim Jung Un’s, should stifle their chuckles. This is serious. The president feels vindicated, smart, and self-confident beyond the outlandish egotism of his campaign days in 2016.

This is serious first and foremost because the North Korean threat is serious. National Security Adviser H. R. McMaster is correct when he notes that the North Koreans have always been willing to sell anything—literally anything—to anybody with the hard cash to buy it. That will be true of their nuclear weapons. It is indeed true that Pyongyang is on the verge of acquiring the ability to obliterate Los Angeles, and eventually Washington. It is certain that this regime has shown no respect for any international norms, let alone international law; that it has committed murder; that it lives in a psychotic cocoon of its own making; and that it will stop at nothing. And it is true, finally, that this dangerous circumstance is not of Trump’s making: It is rather the consequence of policies that bought time and offered no idea what to do with the time that was purchased through shifting combinations of diplomacy, bribes, sanctions, and skullduggery.

Any administration faced with these facts, and at this technological moment in the North Korean program, would have weighed carefully the possibility of a preventive war —it would be the prudent strategic thing to do. And then that administration would have walked away from it. A deliberately initiated war still runs the risk of a humanitarian disaster because, as everyone now realizes, Seoul is within range of thousands of North Korean artillery tubes and rocket batteries. Hundreds of thousands of civilians, including American expats and dependents, would perish in the war that could be unleashed. Even assuming some magical technologies that enable the U.S. to disarm North Korea and decapitate its leadership, who is to say that the ensuing war would not have its way even so?

The consequences of preventive war—a war deliberately initiated by the United States or launched as a result of provocations by one side or both that then escalates—go far beyond this. South Korea, within the memory of people now living, has gone from being poorer than most African countries in 1950 to becoming a first-world technological and economic powerhouse. Could South Koreans forgive the Americans for the slaughter of their citizens and the devastation of their cities because of weapons aimed a hemisphere away? Would the Chinese meekly accept an American conquest of North Korea, or even simply the elimination of the Kim dynasty? Or are they more likely to pour troops, aircraft, and missiles into the Korean peninsula and to warn the Americans off? And where might that lead?

To judge by his public statements, McMaster, like United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, is hard over on the notion that North Korea has to be denuclearized, be it by peaceful surrender or by force. He has used the words preventive war on several occasions. In so doing he is, of course, echoing the president, but it is reasonable to think that he agrees with the basic idea. And that would not be entirely surprising: His duty is to ensure the security of the United States, and North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles would undoubtedly be a threat to that.

What the president’s advisers may not fully appreciate are the political perils of taking such a hazardous course. The fact is that a majority of the American people seem to believe that many words coming out of the president’s mouth are lies. That will not change when he sits behind the Resolute desk and tries to explain why he has launched a Korean war. Trump’s advisers may think that their credibility can substitute for their boss’s lack of it, but they are wrong there too, for, inevitably, their reputations for integrity have been tainted by their own Trumpian pronouncements. Abroad, some governments—Australia and Japan, for example—may feel compelled to side with the Americans. But they too will discover that their populations’ mistrust and disgust toward the American president will undermine their participation in a war. And when all these forces come together, the political firestorms may sweep away long-standing international relationships as well as myriads of Korean and American lives.

There are sounds, for those who can hear them, of the preliminary and muffled drumbeats of war. The Chinese are reported to be preparing refugee camps along the North Korean border. Resources are being shifted to observe and analyze the North Korean military. Mundane logistical processes of moving, stockpiling, and updating crucial items and preparing military personnel are under way. Only the biggest indicator—the evacuation of American dependents from South Korea—has yet to flash red, but, in the interest of surprise, that may not happen. America’s circumspect and statesmanlike secretary of defense, James Mattis, talks ominously of storm clouds gathering over Korea, while the commandant of the Marine Corps simply says, “I hope I’m wrong, but there’s a war coming.”

Maybe nothing will happen. Maybe Donald Trump, he of the five draft deferments during the Vietnam War, will flinch from launching a war as commander in chief, in which case the United States will merely suffer an epic humiliation as it retreats from as big a red line as a president has ever drawn.  Still, lots of people have an interest in war. For Russia, the opportunity to set the United States and China against each other over Korea is a dream come true. For narrow-minded American strategists, it is the only way of cutting the North Korean nuclear Gordian knot. For Kim Jong Un peeking over the edge of the precipice may cause South Korea to break with the Americans, or the Chinese to fight them. For Donald Trump it may be a moment of glory, a dramatic vindication of campaign promises, and an opportunity to distract American minds from Robert Mueller’s investigation of his campaign’s ties to the Russians. And so threats and bluster may turn into violent realities. And if they do, not tomorrow or the next day, but some time in 2018, a Second Korean War could very well make it one of those years in which history swings on its hinge.


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Sessions's Unwise Move on Marijuana May Backfire Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=44720"><span class="small">The Washington Post Editorial Board</span></a>   
Monday, 08 January 2018 09:24

Excerpt: "Attorney General Jeff Sessions is pushing the federal government back into marijuana enforcement. This is an unwise and unnecessary move that may divert resources from more serious problems - and end up backfiring on those who want to restrain pot use."

Jeff Sessions. (photo: AP)
Jeff Sessions. (photo: AP)


Sessions's Unwise Move on Marijuana May Backfire

By The Washington Post Editorial Board

08 January 18

 

ttorney General Jeff Sessions is pushing the federal government back into marijuana enforcement. This is an unwise and unnecessary move that may divert resources from more serious problems — and end up backfiring on those who want to restrain pot use.

Mr. Sessions rescinded Thursday a policy that kept the federal government largely out of the way of states that have legalized marijuana. A majority of states have now legalized it in some form. Maryland just began permitting medical marijuana. California just legalized recreational marijuana, and Vermont is near to doing so.

Mr. Sessions’s move upended a tenuous deal the Obama administration made with legalization states: keep pot out of minors’ hands and help combat trafficking, and federal authorities will focus on bigger priorities. This policy allowed a handful of states room to experiment with unencumbered legalization, which would have made the consequences clearer to others.

Mr. Sessions’s decision is unlikely to result in arrests of small-time marijuana users. But it will chill the growth of the aboveboard weed economy by deterring banks and other institutions from participating. From there, U.S. attorneys across the country will decide whether to crack down, and on whom — a few big distributors, perhaps, or a few local grow shops, too. In states with complex regulations on marijuana growing, testing and selling, some operations may move back underground rather than provide documentation to state authorities that federal prosecutors might later use against them.

Mr. Sessions’s move is counterproductive even for skeptics of legalization, whose only defense against a growing tide of public opinion would be evidence that full legalization has significant negative consequences. Mr. Sessions’s move diminishes the possibility of drawing lessons — including cautionary ones — from the examples of legalization states. Similarly, Mr. Sessions has made it harder to learn how to regulate the legitimate weed economy, if that is the path the country chooses.

More concerning is the prospect that U.S. attorneys will begin diverting limited federal resources into anti-pot campaigns from far more pressing matters. As Mr. Sessions himself said this past November, the nation is experiencing “the deadliest drug crisis in American history.” That would be the opioid epidemic, which, Mr. Sessions noted, claimed some 64,000 lives in 2016. Marijuana simply does not pose the same threat, and the attorney general should have avoided any suggestion that it requires more attention right now.

Mr. Sessions’s decision will spur calls for Congress to finally change federal law. That is warranted, but lawmakers should be wary of swinging too far in the opposite direction. As a recent National Academies of Science review found, experts still know relatively little about marijuana’s health effects. It makes no sense to lock up small-time marijuana users, but it may not make sense to move quickly to national legalization. Rather, Congress should decriminalize marijuana use, then await more information.


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Donald Trump and the Rule of Law Print
Sunday, 07 January 2018 14:27

Toobin writes: "There's been a bomb cyclone of revelations from and about the White House since New Year's Day. But there's a pattern. It all stems from President Trump's contempt for the rule of law."

By filling key positions in an acting capacity rather than through Senate confirmation, President Trump has created a cadre of officials who are accountable only to him. (photo: Tom Brenner/NYT)
By filling key positions in an acting capacity rather than through Senate confirmation, President Trump has created a cadre of officials who are accountable only to him. (photo: Tom Brenner/NYT)


Donald Trump and the Rule of Law

By Jeffrey Toobin, The New Yorker

07 January 18

 

here’s been a bomb cyclone of revelations from and about the White House since New Year’s Day. But there’s a pattern. It all stems from President Trump’s contempt for the rule of law. The week began with a tweet from the President that, in a quasi-normal political environment, would have led to an impeachment investigation.

Richard Nixon earned eternal disgrace for keeping a list of his political enemies, but he, at least, was ashamed enough of the practice to know that he had to keep it secret. Trump, in contrast, is openly calling for the Department of Justice, which he controls, to put his political opponents in jail. This kind of behavior is a trademark of the authoritarians he admires, like Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdo?an. It would be disgraceful under any circumstances, but it’s especially grotesque given that there’s no evidence that Abedin did anything unlawful. (A newly reopened investigation of the Clinton Foundation represents another attempt by the Administration to use law enforcement to harass his opponents.) In a similar vein, congressional Republicans last week invited the Justice Department to investigate Christopher Steele, the British former intelligence official who compiled an early dossier on potential contacts between Trump and Russia.

Also last week, the Times reported more evidence suggesting that the President had obstructed justice in connection with the F.B.I.’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election and any possible connection to members of the Trump campaign. In March, according to the Times, Trump sent Donald F. McGahn II, the White House counsel, to urge Jeff Sessions, the Attorney General, not to recuse himself from supervising the investigation. Trump did so because he felt that Sessions should be protecting him. “Where’s my Roy Cohn?” Trump asked, referring to the right-wing gargoyle who was one of his early political mentors. Sessions, a key figure in the Trump campaign, recognized the obvious fact that he could not investigate the Trump campaign, and properly rebuffed McGahn, but Trump’s malign obsession with the Russia case remains a touchstone of his Presidency.

The Times’ revelation makes an obstruction case stronger. Trump asked for loyalty from James Comey, the F.B.I. director, who was supervising the investigation. When Comey equivocated, Trump fired him, then put out a false story for why he did so, which he promptly undermined by admitting the real reason. And when e-mails emerged over the summer showing that Donald Trump, Jr., had met during the campaign with a Russian lawyer offering dirt on Hillary Clinton, the President participated in concocting a bogus story to explain them. (An especially incriminating version of Trump’s role in the e-mail cover story appears in “Fire and Fury,” Michael Wolff’s explosive new book.)

Trump’s contempt for the rule of law infects his entire Administration, as illustrated by Sessions’s newly announced guidance on marijuana policy. Under President Barack Obama, the Department of Justice allowed states to come up with their own policies on pot, which Washington and Colorado legalized, to benign effect. Not surprisingly, more states are following those successful experiments. Still, Sessions this week invited local United States Attorneys to make up their own policies on when and whether to prosecute marijuana cases. This would be a recipe for chaos in any circumstance, but it’s especially appalling because Trump has nominated, and the Senate has confirmed, so few U.S. Attorneys. There are positions for ninety-three U.S. Attorneys, but Trump has nominated people to fill only fifty-eight of them, and the Senate has confirmed just forty-six.

But, under the new policy, in much of the country federal marijuana enforcement will be run by officials who are only accountable to Sessions and Trump, not to the broader public. Senators have a right to ask prospective U.S. Attorneys how they plan to enforce federal law on marijuana, and, of course, the legislators have the right to vote these officials down if they don’t like their answers. But Sessions has installed acting U.S. Attorneys in much of the country—including in such high-profile locations as Manhattan and Los Angeles—and senators can’t exert any oversight of them. This gesture of contempt for the Senate’s role in confirmations is reflected well beyond the Justice Department. Throughout the government, Trump has nominated many fewer officials to Senate-confirmed positions than his predecessors; instead, Cabinet secretaries have filled these crucial positions with acting or temporary officials who avoid scrutiny from senators. It’s another example of Trump’s disdain for the norms that have been observed by his predecessors. Trump’s Presidency may look like a series of chaotic lurches. But there is, alas, madness to his method.


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FOCUS: There Are Lots of 'Lone Wolves' Out There, and They Have Guns Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=11104"><span class="small">Charles Pierce, Esquire</span></a>   
Sunday, 07 January 2018 11:48

Pierce writes: "These are the real lone wolves in this country. People living on the far fringes of The Grid, nursing private grudges, and finding meaning in lunatic causes they read about on the Intertoobz and discovering in themselves the whiskey courage it takes to bring your private self into the public space."

A march by a Confederate monument. (photo: Getty Images)
A march by a Confederate monument. (photo: Getty Images)


There Are Lots of 'Lone Wolves' Out There, and They Have Guns

By Charles Pierce, Esquire

07 January 18


This one, for instance, was an alleged Nazi.

eanwhile, out in the Heartland of Real America, violent fckwads are at play. Allegedly. The Lincoln Journal-Star tells us that some folks on a passenger train got very lucky that they weren’t involved in someone’s unfortunately ill-timed exercise of his Second Amendment rights.

Just before 2 a.m. on Oct. 22, an assistant conductor felt the train braking, searched for what was causing it and found Wilson in the engineer's seat of the follow engine "playing with the controls," Czaplewski wrote. The conductor, and others, subdued Wilson, then held him and waited for deputies from Furnas and Harlan counties to arrive in Oxford, 23 miles southwest of Holdrege, where the eastbound California Zephyr with about 175 people aboard stopped. No injuries were reported. Czaplewski said Wilson, who has a permit in Missouri to carry a concealed handgun, had a loaded .38-caliber handgun in his waistband, a speed loader in his pocket and a National Socialist Movement business card on him when he was arrested. He also had a backpack with three more speed loaders, a box of ammunition, a knife, tin snips, scissors and a ventilation mask inside.

Brief pause: Nazis have business cards? We continue.

Two days later, according to the federal case, FBI agents searched Wilson's home in Missouri and found a hidden compartment with a handmade shield, as well as: "a tactical vest, 11 AR-15 (rifle) ammunition magazines with approximately 190 rounds of .223 ammunition, one drum-style ammunition magazine for a rifle, firearms tactical accessories (lights), 100 rounds of 9 mm ammunition, approximately 840 rounds of 5.45x39 rifle ammunition, white supremacy documents and paperwork, several additional handgun and rifle magazines, gunpowder, ammunition-reloading supplies, and a pressure plate." Czaplewski said they also found 15 firearms, including a fully-automatic rifle, ammunition and firearms magazines, and a tactical body armor carrier with ceramic ballistic plates. In the newly unsealed federal case, Czaplewski wrote that investigators had found videos and PDF files on Wilson's phone of a white supremacist banner over a highway, other alt-right postings and documents related to how to kill people.

These are the real lone wolves in this country. People living on the far fringes of The Grid, nursing private grudges, and finding meaning in lunatic causes they read about on the Intertoobz and discovering in themselves the whiskey courage it takes to bring your private self into the public space.

An informant told the FBI that Wilson has expressed an interest in "killing black people" and others besides whites, and they suspect Wilson was responsible for a road rage incident in April 2016 in St. Charles where a man pointed a gun at a black woman for no apparent reason while driving on Interstate 70, Czaplewski said.

And guns, of course. We make sure they have plenty of guns because that’s how we all remain free.


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FOCUS: As Mueller Gets Closer, We'll See More Signs of Trump's Obstruction Print
Sunday, 07 January 2018 11:30

Reich writes: "As special counsel Robert Mueller gets closer to revealing Trump's ties to Russia, Trump is encouraging House Republicans and Fox News to intensify their anti-Mueller campaign."

Former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich. (photo: Steve Russell/Toronto Star)
Former Clinton labor secretary Robert Reich. (photo: Steve Russell/Toronto Star)


As Mueller Gets Closer, We'll See More Signs of Trump's Obstruction

By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog

07 January 18

 

eadline: As special counsel Robert Mueller gets closer to revealing Trump's ties to Russia, Trump is encouraging House Republicans and Fox News to intensify their anti-Mueller campaign. This is causing a major rift in the GOP between Trump loyalists, and Republicans who are ready to turn on Trump now that they got the tax cuts their rich patrons demanded.

Connect the dots:

1. Several Trump loyalists in the House today demanded that Attorney General Jeff Sessions resign. Sessions' resignation would allow Trump to appoint a new attorney general who is not recused from the Russia probe, and could fire Mueller.

2. House Intelligence Committee chair Devin Nunes is stepping up his attacks on Mueller's team and the law enforcement agencies around it, including convening a group of Republicans to draft a report on "corruption" among the investigators working for Mueller. But other senior House Republicans, like Trey Gowdy, are urging Nunes to tone down his criticisms and not pursue the corruption report.

3. Paul Manafort has commenced a civil lawsuit against Mueller for exceeding his authority. The suit is rubbish. It’s well established that prosecutors can use whatever evidence they lawfully uncover as a basis for further criminal investigations. Manafort chose to file this civil lawsuit instead of filing a motion in the criminal case because he's counting on his conservative allies (including Fox News) to further rile up the GOP base against Mueller.

4. Meanwhile, Trump is loading up the government agencies that would investigate his possible Russia financial crimes -- the IRS, Treasury’s financial crimes unit, and both U.S. Attorneys that cover New York City -- with “acting” cronies who are serving without senate confirmation.

As Mueller gets closer, we'll see more signs of Trump's attempted obstruction of our system of justice.

Your thoughts?


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