Mueller's Obstruction of Justice Case Against Trump Looks Damning
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=32251"><span class="small">Zack Beauchamp, Vox</span></a>
Thursday, 11 January 2018 09:24
Beauchamp writes: "Special counsel Robert Mueller is tasked with trying to find out whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia - and he's made a lot of progress, fast."
Special counsel Robert Mueller. (photo: Alex Wong/Getty)
Mueller's Obstruction of Justice Case Against Trump Looks Damning
By Zack Beauchamp, Vox
11 January 18
This should worry Trump even more than allegations of collusion.
pecial counsel Robert Mueller is tasked with trying to find out whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia — and he’s made a lot of progress, fast.
There remains, however, a crucial hole in the case for collusion — at least, the part of it known to the public. We have not seen or heard any evidence that President Trump personally participated in some kind of illegal election hacking scheme in coordination with Russian agents.
But there’s another kind of case against the president — the argument that his various attempts to undermine the Russia investigation, like firing FBI Director James Comey, constitute criminal obstruction of justice. If Mueller feels he has enough evidence, then he could seek permission to indict and prosecute Trump. It’s not clear that charges can actually be brought against a sitting president, but Mueller’s findings could nevertheless be turned over to Congress — and serve as the centerpiece of any impeachment proceedings against Trump.
That means it’s obstruction, not collusion, that poses the biggest legal and political threat to President Trump.
“If Trump exercises his power — even his lawful power — with a corrupt motive of interfering with an investigation, that’s obstruction,” says Lisa Kern Griffin, an expert on criminal law at Duke University. “The attempt is sufficient, and it seems to be a matter of public record already.”
There are basically two reasons Griffin and other legal observers believe Mueller has such a good case obstruction case. First, the evidence of obstruction is, from what we know publicly, far stronger than the evidence that Trump himself was involved in with Russian efforts to interfere in the 2016 election. Second, the crime of obstruction is legally straightforward, whereas it’s not obvious which laws Trump would have violated by accepting Russian assistance during the election.
The public, obviously, doesn’t know everything Mueller does. It could be that the collusion case is a lot clearer, or the obstruction case a lot murkier, than it appears from the outside.
But what we do know suggests that Mueller is taking the obstruction charge seriously, and that his chances of making his case are quite good — unless Trump decides to fire him or his boss.
The evidence that Trump obstructed justice seems stronger than the evidence of collusion
We know for a fact that Mueller is looking into potential obstruction charges.
On January 4, the New York Times’s Michael Schmidt reported that Trump ordered the White House counsel, Don McGahn, to convince Attorney General Jeff Sessions not to recuse himself from the Russia investigation. When McGahn failed, “the president erupted in anger in front of numerous White House officials, saying he needed his attorney general to protect him,” Schmidt writes. “Mr. Trump said he had expected his top law enforcement official to safeguard him.”
The incident suggests that the president wanted law enforcement officials to protect him from criminal charges. And indeed, Schmidt reports that the episode was initially discovered by Mueller “as he investigates whether Mr. Trump obstructed the F.B.I.’s Russia inquiry.”
The irony, according to many experts, is that this kind of effort to block the Russia investigation has likely created a bigger legal problem for Trump than anything he may have done with Russians.
“So-called ‘offenses against the administration of justice’ — like obstruction of justice or lying to the FBI — are often easier to prove than the underlying criminality that the subject was trying to hide,” says Jens David Ohlin, a professor of law at Cornell. “In Trump’s case, this is undoubtedly true.”
There’s clear evidence that some of Trump’s campaign staff were in contact with Russian officials, and even interested in receiving their help in the election. The best example is the June 2016 Trump Tower meeting, where Donald Trump Jr. met with a Kremlin-linked attorney who was promising to provide dirt from the Russian government on Hillary Clinton.
But to link Trump himself to collusion, you’d need to prove that he had personally approved of this meeting, or that the Trump campaign as a whole was involved in a broader plot to work with the Russian government. In the absence of this evidence, experts say it would be very hard to charge the president with any kind of collusion-related crime. And no such evidence exists, at least in the public record.
“Nothing, to my knowledge, has come out that implicated [Trump] directly,” says Asha Rangappa, a former FBI special agent and current associate dean of Yale University.
The public evidence that Trump committed obstruction of justice — defined as “corruptly” attempting to “influence, obstruct, or impede, the due administration of justice” — is quite a bit stronger, particularly when it comes to the Comey firing.
Technically, the FBI director serves at the pleasure of the president and can be fired at any time and for any reason. However, the general belief among experts is that it’s not legal for the president to use this power in an attempt to shield himself or his family members from criminal investigation. Crucially, it does not matter whether Trump successfully shielded himself from scrutiny — all that matters is that he tried to.
“The obstruction statutes are very broad,” Griffin explains. “It matters whether Trump ‘endeavors’ to impede the DOJ and congressional investigations at any turn.”
This all hinges on what was in the president’s mind when he fired Comey. If Trump did it because he thought Comey was doing a poor job supervising the Russia investigation, that’s perfectly legal. If he did it because he was worried that Comey’s investigation might end up uncovering some kind of misdeeds by the Trump family — whether Russia-related, financial, or otherwise — then that’s obstruction.
Typically, proving intent is difficult for prosecutors, because establishing what a person was thinking at a particular moment is inherently challenging. But Trump has made things easier for Mueller — by repeatedly, even publicly, admitting that he fired Comey out of hostility to the Russia investigation.
“He’s kind of making the case himself for Mueller [on] obstruction,” Rangappa concludes.
Firing Comey isn’t the only possible Trump action that could land him in hot water on obstruction charges. But the firing is the clearest example based on what we know right now — and one that seems more likely to form the backbone of any charges against Trump than anything directly related to Russian collusion.
We are still a very long way away from indictment or impeachment
Even if there were evidence of Trump personally plotting with Russia — and it may well be, squirreled away in Mueller’s files — it’s not clear whether this would constitute a crime. “Collusion” is not a legal term; Mueller would have to figure out which specific law Trump’s actions violated, which according to legal experts could be trickier than it might seem.
By contrast, there’s no similar lack of clarity about obstruction of justice. The articles of impeachment against both Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton included allegations of obstruction.
Still, as strong as Mueller’s obstruction case appears to be, there are several major hurdles he’d have to clear before bringing a case.
Under the law governing special counsels, Mueller does not have the power to simply announce that he thinks the president has committed a crime and then indict him. He doesn’t even have authority to issue a report saying that the president committed crimes, a step well short of criminal prosecution.
To do either, he would need approval from the top Department of Justice official supervising the investigation. Typically, this would be the attorney general — but since Sessions recused himself from the Russia probe, it falls to his second in command, Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein.
“[Mueller] really can’t just walk into a federal court and go through the normal criminal process,” Rangappa explains. “He brings his findings to Rosenstein, he says, ‘I want to bring these charges,’ or, ‘I’m declining to bring these charges,’ and [Rosenstein] can approve or not.”
This is a crucial point of vulnerability in the case against Trump. Legally, Trump would need Rosenstein’s approval to fire Mueller — but Trump could fire Rosenstein all on his own. You’re already seeing support for this course of action building; there’s a faction of Republicans in Congress who believe that Mueller’s probe is biased against Trump and that its leader needs to be fired.
The decision would then fall to the next person in the DOJ hierarchy, Associate Attorney General Rachel Brand, to fire Mueller. If she refused, Trump could fire her and try again with her successor. The president could also muzzle Mueller, and forestall an indictment, by firing Attorney General Jeff Sessions and appointing a friendly attorney general who wouldn’t have to recuse himself from supervising the Russia probe.
These are hard things to do. Firing Mueller might require firing a massive portion of the DOJ, and new attorneys general need congressional approval. But they are potential avenues through which Trump could use his powers to take control of the investigation.
Assuming Rosenstein remains in office and concludes that Mueller’s evidence against Trump is sufficient to support an obstruction case, the question becomes what to do about it.
Current DOJ policy is that sitting presidents cannot be indicted in criminal court as a matter of constitutional law. Some scholars dispute that; my colleague Dylan Matthews has an excellent overview of the debate. But the fact that an indictment is constitutionally dubious means that Rosenstein is unlikely to greenlight bringing charges.
An alternative would be Rosenstein issuing a report detailing evidence of Trump’s alleged crimes, a document lawmakers could use in any impeachment proceedings against Trump.
Impeachment is the clearest and most constitutionally straightforward punishment for crimes by a sitting president, and the one most likely to lead to Trump’s removal from office. This means that no matter how strong Mueller’s evidence is, Trump’s fate would most likely to be decided on Capitol Hill — in a profoundly political vote.
Dayen writes: "As Amazon builds up its distribution network, it's hit on a trick long practiced by the likes of Walmart: using the federal government to help pay its workers."
The CEO of Amazon Jeff Bezos. (photo: Getty)
Amazon Is Thriving Thanks to Taxpayer Dollars
By David Dayen, The New Republic
11 January 18
The tech giant has received more than $1 billion in tax breaks. The government is also funding food stamps for many of its workers.
s Amazon builds up its distribution network, it’s hit on a trick long practiced by the likes of Walmart: using the federal government to help pay its workers. A new study by Policy Matters Ohio found that more than 700 Amazon employees receive food stamps, or more than 10 percent of the tech giant’s 6,000-strong workforce in the state. Some of those recipients may be part-time help, but the fact that they need federal aid to survive suggests that they would be happy to work more. “Why is this giant, successful company offering such limited pay and hours of work that many of its workers need help buying food?” asked Zach Schiller, research director at Policy Matters.
Amazon ranks nineteenth among Ohio businesses in number of employees on food stamps, behind Walmart, McDonald’s, and Kroger. But Amazon is only the fifty-third-largest employer in Ohio, suggesting a higher rate of employees on food stamps than its counterparts. More important, Amazon has obtained at least $123 million in state tax incentives to place warehouse and data center locations in Ohio. This reflects a perverse form of double-dipping: Amazon gets a bounty to create jobs in Ohio, and then a good chunk of the jobs are so low-paying that workers have to seek federal assistance, providing a second subsidy for the e-commerce giant.
Cities and states are offering Amazon eye-popping tax subsidies to win its second headquarters. But smaller, existing tax incentives have already made Amazon the leading recipient of so-called “economic development” subsidies in the country. According to Good Jobs First, a non-profit that tracks state tax breaks, since 2000 Amazon has received $1.115 billion in 129 communities in the U.S., rocketing past the previous leader in this category: Walmart.
This was the result of a concerted strategy by Amazon. In 2012, the company hired Michael Grella, a specialist in economic development tax credits. The company created an entire team just to seek out these subsidies, in a continuation of its strategy to work the tax code to its advantage—first by not collecting sales tax and offering an effective discount on every product, and more recently to lower the cost of building new shipping facilities.
If a city or state shells out millions of dollars to attract Amazon, the least it can do is ensure that the resulting jobs lift people out of poverty. When Ohio gave Amazon $17 million for two distribution centers in Licking County, Amazon promised to hire at least 2,000 employees with a payroll of $60 million. That comes out to $30,000 per worker, barely above the $26,208 poverty line. Amazon subsequently hired many more employees than that baseline, but payroll has remained so low that a healthy number have to turn to food stamps, as the Policy Matters Ohio report shows.
The famously grueling jobs in Amazon warehouses have also created strains on local services. Bloomberg reported in October that emergency responders visit the Amazon warehouse in Licking County at least once a day to attend to an injured worker. Local residents have to fund those forays because Amazon pays no property tax in Licking County under their subsidy deal. Voters approved a $6.5 million property tax levy in November to keep the Fire Department operational.
The largesse bestowed on Amazon in Ohio is incredible. A deal for three Amazon data centers netted Amazon a 15-year exemption on property and sales taxes worth $77 million, a $4 million offset to payroll costs, and $1.4 million in cash, and only committed the company to 1,000 full-time jobs. A sorting facility in Twinsburg, Ohio, would only have ten full-time jobs, with the rest part-time or seasonal. No matter: Twinsburg gave a partial property tax exemption worth $600,000. Another warehouse opening in Euclid, outside of Cleveland, has yet to yield details on what the state kicked in.
Most of these deals go through a privatized economic development agency called JobsOhio, which doesn’t require as much transparency as a public agency about what taxpayers are getting for their money. JobsOhio continues to defend the Amazon deals as good for the state, claiming that full-time warehouse workers receive 30 percent higher compensation than the national retail worker average. That figure doesn’t bear out compared to independent data reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which puts Amazon wages 15 percent below the average wage in 11 metro areas, at only $11.96 an hour, a number roughly equivalent to the average retail wage.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos has a net worth of about $100 billion. Take that down to $99.5 billion and nobody working at any Amazon facility in America would need assistance to eat. But this is as much a problem with state and local governments who feel the need to give a fantastically wealthy corporation incentives to build facilities that are critical to its business model.
Amazon’s model of two-day or even same-day delivery of tens of thousands of products through its Prime service demands a large footprint across the country. If Amazon wants to live up to its shipping promises, they need to build warehouses virtually everywhere, beyond the roughly 140 fulfillment centers in operation today. “It requires at least one and sometimes multiple facilities in or near every major consumer market in the U.S.,” notes Good Jobs First in a report on Amazon subsidies.
So it’s not clear why any state or local government would pay Amazon to build something it already must build. Communities seeking jobs may feel the need to compete with neighbors to attract an Amazon warehouse. But to be as convenient as the neighborhood store, Amazon has to physically exist in the neighborhood. Any city with decent roads and a lot of Prime members will eventually become a candidate for a warehouse; they don’t need to top it off with a corporate handout.
If taxpayer dollars do keep flowing, governments have a duty to impose stringent standards for the number of jobs and the level of salaries and benefits that will result—and threaten to claw back the subsidies if those parameters are not met.
Economic development incentives don’t create jobs as much as they shift them around, pitting communities against one another for who can pony up the most corporate welfare. Companies rely on desperation in these communities, knowing they can win valuable incentives just by dangling a few low-wage jobs. But why aren’t they demanding that companies, in exchange for job-creation tax incentives, pay those new workers a livable wage?
Girls Can Change the World - but We Have to Invest in Them First
Wednesday, 10 January 2018 14:27
Yousafzai writes: "One hundred and thirty million girls are out of school. As I travel the world to advocate for them, not every day is easy."
Malala Yousafzai is an education activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner from Pakistan. (photo: Glamour)
Girls Can Change the World - but We Have to Invest in Them First
By Malala Yousafzai, TIME
10 January 18
ne hundred and thirty million girls are out of school. As I travel the world to advocate for them, not every day is easy.
Some days I meet girls who have to fight so hard for a right they already have. This summer I met Najlaa, a Yazidi teenager in Iraq. At 14, her parents took her out of school and told her she would be married.
On her wedding day, Najlaa kicked off her high heels and ran away — still in her wedding dress. She wasn’t ready to give up on her education and dreams of becoming a journalist.
When she was 16, ISIS invaded her village and forced her to flee again. Today she lives as an internally displaced person in Kurdistan and walks more than an hour to school each day.
Girls like Najlaa inspire me to keep working — but I also wonder what else these determined and talented young women could give the world if they didn’t have to work so hard just to go to school.
Some days I’m discouraged by leaders who could send every girl to school, but still don’t.
At the United Nations two years ago, leaders committed to ensuring every girl receives 12 years of education by 2030. Since then, donor countries have either flatlined or decreased their aid to education. None of the nine biggest countries in Africa, Latin America and developing Asia have increased their education budgets. Several are even making drastic cuts, putting more girls out of school.
Some days are hard — but I refuse to believe the world will always be as it is today.
At Malala Fund, we are working to change the world for girls by investing in educators and advocates in developing countries. These women and men understand the challenges girls face in their communities — child marriage, poverty, conflicts and wars — and are best placed to develop solutions.
In Afghanistan, they are recruiting female teachers to work in rural schools. In Nigeria, they are running mentorship clubs to help girls resist family pressure to drop out and marry as young as 13 years old. In Lebanon, they are developing e-learning programmes to teach STEM skills to Syrian refugee girls.
Progress may be slow, but I believe we can see every girl in school in my lifetime. I believe in local educators and activists, who are challenging policies and priorities that keep girls out of school. I believe in girls like Najlaa, who are leading the fight for themselves and their sisters. I believe in millions of people around the world, who are supporting our movement for education and equality.
Earlier this year, someone asked me, “After everything you’ve been through and everything you’ve seen, how do you keep from being hopeless?”
I thought about it and, after talking for a moment about all the things to be grateful for in my own life, I said, “I think it’s pointless to be hopeless. If you are hopeless, you waste your present and your future.”
If we choose to focus on the obstacles, we may be tempted to believe it is impossible to give every girl the education she deserves. But if we want a brighter future — for them and for ourselves — we must invest in girls today.
I hope you’ll join me to work for a world where every girl can learn and lead without fear.
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=35167"><span class="small">David Suzuki, EcoWatch</span></a>
Wednesday, 10 January 2018 14:11
Suzuki writes: "Do we think we can survive without the other animals and plants that share the biosphere? And does our health not reflect the condition of air, water and soil that sustain all life? It's as if they matter only in terms of how much it will cost to maintain or protect them."
A worker at an Amazon assembly line. (photo: AP)
Consumer Society No Longer Serves Our Needs
By David Suzuki, EcoWatch
10 January 18
y parents were born in Vancouver—dad in 1909, mom in 1911—and married during the Great Depression. It was a difficult time that shaped their values and outlook, which they drummed into my sisters and me.
"Save some for tomorrow," they often scolded. "Share; don't be greedy." "Help others when they need it because one day you might need to ask for their help." "Live within your means." Their most important was, "You must work hard for the necessities in life, but don't run after money as if having fancy clothes or big cars make you a better or more important person." I think of my parents often during the frenzy of pre- and post-Christmas shopping.
We moved to Ontario after the Second World War. We were destitute. (As Canadians of Japanese descent, we had been treated as enemy aliens and lost everything, including all rights as Canadian citizens). I needed a coat for the cold eastern winter, so my parents purchased a new one—a big expense for farm laborers. Unfortunately, I was 11 and going through a growth spurt and quickly outgrew the coat, so it was passed on to my twin sister, Marcia. She wore it for longer but also outgrew it and gave it to our younger sister, Aiko. My parents boasted that the coat was so well made, "it went through three children." It's been a long time since I've heard durability as a positive attribute of a product. In today's fashion-obsessed world, how many children would accept hand-me-downs from siblings?
How did "throw-away," "disposable" and "planned obsolescence" become part of product design and marketing? It was deliberate. Wars are effective at getting economies moving, and the Second World War pulled America out of the Great Depression. By 1945, the American economy was blazing as victory approached.
But how can a war-based economy continue in peacetime? One way is to continue hostilities or their threat. The global costs of armaments and defense still dwarf spending for health care and education. Another way to transform a wartime economy to peacetime is consumption. Adam Smith, the father of modern economics, wrote in 1776, "Consumption is the sole end and purpose of all production."
Seized upon by the Council of Economic Advisers to the president under Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s, consumption was promoted as the engine of the economy. Retailing analyst Victor Lebow famously proclaimed in 1955: "Our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfaction and our ego satisfaction in consumption. We need things consumed, burned up, worn out, replaced and discarded at an ever-increasing rate."
Now, we are no longer defined by our societal roles (parents, churchgoers, teachers, doctors, plumbers, etc.) or political status (voters) but as "customers," "shoppers" or "consumers." The media remind us daily of how well we're supporting continued economic growth, using the Dow Jones average, S&P; Index, price of gold and dollar's value.
But where is the indication of our real status—Earthlings—animals whose very survival and well-being depend on the state of our home, planet Earth? Do we think we can survive without the other animals and plants that share the biosphere? And does our health not reflect the condition of air, water and soil that sustain all life? It's as if they matter only in terms of how much it will cost to maintain or protect them.
Nature, increasingly under pressure from the need for constant economic growth, is often used to spread the consumption message. Nature has long been exploited in commercials—the lean movement of lions or tigers in car ads, the cuteness of parrots or mice, the strength of crocodiles, etc. But now animals are portrayed to actively recruit consumers. I'm especially nauseated by the shot of a penguin offering a stone to a potential mate being denigrated by another penguin offering a fancy diamond necklace.
How can we have serious discussions about the ecological costs and limits to growth or the need to degrow economies when consumption is seen as the very reason the economy and society exist?
FOCUS | Special Ops at War: From Afghanistan to Somalia, Special Ops Achieves Less With More
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=7517"><span class="small">Nick Turse, TomDispatch</span></a>
Wednesday, 10 January 2018 12:50
Turse writes: "As wars and interventions have multiplied, as U.S. commandos have spread across the planet, and as terror groups have proliferated, the tempo of operations has jumped dramatically."
US Special Operations Forces. (photo: Getty)
Special Ops at War: From Afghanistan to Somalia, Special Ops Achieves Less With More
By Nick Turse, TomDispatch
10 January 18
If you want to know something about life in America these days, consider how New York Times columnist David Leonhardt began his first piece of the year, “7 Wishes for 2018”: "Well, at least it’s not 2017 anymore. I expect that future historians will look back on it as one of the darker non-war years in the country’s history...”
Think about that for a moment: 2017, a "non-war year"? Tell that to the Afghans, the Iraqis, the Syrians, the Yemenis, the Somalis, or for that matter the parents of the four American Green Berets who died in Niger last October. Still, let’s admit it, Leonhardt caught a deeper American reality of 2017, not to speak of the years before that, and undoubtedly this one, too.
Launched in October 2001, what was once called the Global War on Terror -- it even gained the grotesque acronym, GWOT -- has never ended. Instead, it’s morphed and spread over large parts of the planet. In all the intervening years, the United States has been in a state of permanent war that shows no sign of concluding in 2018. Its planes continue to drop a staggering tonnage of munitions; its drones continue to Hellfire-missile country after country; and, in recent years, its elite Special Operations forces, now a military-within-the-U.S.-military of about 70,000 personnel, have been deployed, as Nick Turse has long reportedat this website, to almost every imaginable country on the planet. They train allied militaries and proxy forces, advise and sometimes fight with those forces in the field, conduct raids, and engage in what certainly looks like war.
The only catch in all this (and it’s surely what led Leonhardt to write those lines of his) is the American people. Long divorced from their all-volunteer military in a draft-less country, we have largely ignored the war on terror and gone about our business just as President George W. Bush urged us to do two weeks after the 9/11 attacks. ("Get down to Disney World in Florida. Take your families and enjoy life, the way we want it to be enjoyed.") As those distant conflicts expanded and terror groups spread and multiplied, Washington helped the "non-war" atmosphere along by perfecting a new kind of warfare in which ever fewer Americans would die. Half a century later, its quagmire qualities aside, the war on terror is largely the anti-Vietnam War: no body counts, few body bags, lots of proxy forces, armed robotic vehicles in the skies, and at the tip of the “spear” a vast, ever-more secretive military, those special ops guys. As a result, if you weren’t in that all-volunteer military or a family member of someone who was, it wasn’t too hard to live as if the country’s “forever wars” had nothing to do with us. It’s possible that never in our history, one filled with wars, have Americans been more deeply demobilized than in this era. When it comes to the war on terror, there’s neither been a wave of support nor, since 2003, a wave of protest.
In a sense, then, David Leonhardt was right on the mark. In so much of the world, 2017 was a grim year of war, displacement, and disaster. Here, however, it was, in so many ways, just another "non-war year." In that context, let Nick Turse guide you into the next "non-war year" and the “non-war” force, America’s special operators, who are likely to be at its heart.
-Tom Engelhardt, TomDispatch
Special Ops at War From Afghanistan to Somalia, Special Ops Achieves Less with More
t around 11 o’clock that night, four Lockheed MC-130 Combat Talons, turboprop Special Operations aircraft, were flying through a moonless sky from Pakistani into Afghan airspace. On board were 199 Army Rangers with orders to seize an airstrip. One hundred miles to the northeast, Chinook and Black Hawk helicopters cruised through the darkness toward Kandahar, carrying Army Delta Force operators and yet more Rangers, heading for a second site. It was October 19, 2001. The war in Afghanistan had just begun and U.S. Special Operations forces (SOF) were the tip of the American spear.
Those Rangers parachuted into and then swarmed the airfield, engaging the enemy -- a single armed fighter, as it turned out -- and killing him. At that second site, the residence of Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar, the special operators apparently encountered no resistance at all, even though several Americans were wounded due to friendly fire and a helicopter crash.
In 2001, U.S. special operators were targeting just two enemy forces: al-Qaeda and the Taliban. In 2010, his first full year in office, President Barack Obama informed Congress that U.S. forces were still “actively pursuing and engaging remaining al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in Afghanistan.” According to a recent Pentagon report to Congress, American troops are battling more than 10 times that number of militant groups, including the still-undefeated Taliban, the Haqqani network, an Islamic State affiliate known as ISIS-Khorasan, and various “other insurgent networks.”
After more than 16 years of combat, U.S. Special Operations forces remain the tip of the spear in Afghanistan, where they continue to carry out counterterrorism missions. In fact, from June 1st to November 24th last year, according to that Pentagon report, members of Special Operations Joint Task Force-Afghanistan conducted 2,175 ground operations “in which they enabled or advised” Afghan commandos.
“During the Obama administration the use of Special Operations forces increased dramatically, as if their use was a sort of magical, all-purpose solution for fighting terrorism,” William Hartung, the director of the Arms and Security Project at the Center for International Policy, pointed out. “The ensuing years have proven this assumption to be false. There are many impressive, highly skilled personnel involved in special operations on behalf of the United States, but the problems they are being asked to solve often do not have military solutions. Despite this fact, the Trump administration is doubling down on this approach in Afghanistan, even though the strategy has not prevented the spread of terrorist organizations and may in fact be counterproductive.”
Global Commandos
Since U.S. commandos went to war in 2001, the size of Special Operations Command has doubled from about 33,000 personnel to 70,000 today. As their numbers have grown, so has their global reach. As TomDispatchrevealed last month, they were deployed to 149 nations in 2017, or about 75% of the countries on the planet, a record-setting year. It topped 2016’s 138 nations under the Obama administration and dwarfed the numbers from the final years of the Bush administration. As the scope of deployments has expanded, special operators also came to be spread ever more equally across the planet.
In October 2001, Afghanistan was the sole focus of commando combat missions. On March 19, 2003, special operators fired the first shots in the invasion of Iraq as their helicopter teams attacked Iraqi border posts near Jordan and Saudi Arabia. By 2006, as the war in Afghanistan ground on and the conflict in Iraq continued to morph into a raging set of insurgencies, 85% of U.S. commandos were being deployed to the Greater Middle East.
As this decade dawned in 2010, the numbers hadn’t changed appreciably: 81% of all special operators abroad were still in that region.
Eight years later, however, the situation is markedly different, according to figures provided to TomDispatch by U.S. Special Operations Command. Despite claims that the Islamic State has been defeated, the U.S. remains embroiled in wars in Iraq and Syria, as well as in Afghanistan and Yemen, yet only 54% of special operators deployed overseas were sent to the Greater Middle East in 2017. In fact, since 2006, deployments have been on the rise across the rest of the world. In Latin America, the figure crept up from 3% to 4.39%. In the Pacific region, from 7% to 7.99%. But the striking increases have been in Europe and Africa.
In 2006, just 3% of all commandos deployed overseas were operating in Europe. Last year, that number was just north of 16%. “Outside of Russia and Belarus we train with virtually every country in Europe either bilaterally or through various multinational events,” Major Michael Weisman, a spokesman for U.S. Special Operations Command Europe, told TomDispatch. “The persistent presence of U.S. SOF alongside our allies sends a clear message of U.S. commitment to our allies and the defense of our NATO alliance.” For the past two years, in fact, the U.S. has maintained a Special Operations contingent in almost every nation on Russia’s western border. As Special Operations Command chief General Raymond Thomas put it last year, “[W]e've had persistent presence in every country -- every NATO country and others on the border with Russia doing phenomenal things with our allies, helping them prepare for their threats.”
Africa, however, has seen the most significant increase in special ops deployments. In 2006, the figure for that continent was just 1%; as 2017 ended, it stood at 16.61%. In other words, more commandos are operating there than in any region except the Middle East. As I recently reported at Vice News, Special Operations forces were active in at least 33 nations across that continent last year.
The situation in one of those nations, Somalia, in many ways mirrors in microcosm the 16-plus years of U.S. operations in Afghanistan. Not long after the 9/11 attacks, a senior Pentagon official suggested that the Afghan invasion might drive militants out of that country and into African nations. “Terrorists associated with al-Qaeda and indigenous terrorist groups have been and continue to be a presence in this region,” he said. “These terrorists will, of course, threaten U.S. personnel and facilities.”
When pressed about actual transnational dangers, that official pointed to Somali militants, only to eventually admit that even the most extreme Islamists there “really have not engaged in acts of terrorism outside Somalia.” Similarly, when questioned about connections between Osama bin Laden’s core al-Qaeda group and African extremists, he offered only the most tenuous links, like bin Laden’s “salute” to Somali militants who killed U.S. troops during the infamous 1993 Black Hawk Down incident.
Nonetheless, U.S. commandos reportedly began operating in Somalia in 2001, air attacks by AC-130 gunships followed in 2007, and 2011 saw the beginning of U.S. drone strikes aimed at militants from al-Shabaab, a terror group that didn’t even exist until 2006. According to figures compiled by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, the U.S. carried out between 32 and 36 drone strikes and at least 9 to 13 ground attacks in Somalia between 2001 and 2016.
Last spring, President Donald Trump loosened Obama-era restrictions on offensive operations in that country. Allowing U.S. forces more discretion in conducting missions there, he opened up the possibility of more frequent airstrikes and commando raids. The 2017 numbers reflect just that. The U.S. carried out 34 drone strikes, at least equaling if not exceeding the cumulative number of attacks over the previous 15 years. (And it took the United States only a day to resume such strikes this year.)
“President Trump's decision to make parts of southern Somalia an ‘area of active hostilities’ gave [U.S. Africa Command or AFRICOM] the leeway to carry out strikes at an increased rate because it no longer had to run their proposed operations through the White House national security bureaucratic process,” said Jack Serle, an expert on U.S. counterterrorism operations in Somalia. He was quick to point out that AFRICOM claims the uptick in operations is due to more targets presenting themselves, but he suspects that AFRICOM may be attempting to cripple al-Shabaab before an African Union peacekeeping force is withdrawn and Somalia’s untested military is left to fight the militants without thousands of additional African troops.
In addition to the 30-plus airstrikes in 2017, there were at least three U.S. ground attacks. In one of the latter, described by AFRICOM as “an advise-and-assist operation alongside members of the Somali National Army,” Navy SEAL Kyle Milliken was killed and two U.S. personnel were injured during a firefight with al-Shabaab militants. In another ground operation in August, according to an investigation by the Daily Beast,Special Operations forces took part in a massacre of10 Somali civilians. (The U.S. military is now investigating.)
As in Afghanistan, the U.S. has been militarily engaged in Somalia since 2001 and, as in Afghanistan, despite more than a decade and a half of operations, the number of militant groups being targeted has only increased. U.S. commandos are now battling at least two terror groups -- al-Shabaab and a local Islamic State affiliate -- as drone strikes spiked in the last year and Somalia became an ever-hotter war zone. Today, according to AFRICOM, militants operate “training camps” and possess “safe havens throughout Somalia [and] the region.”
“The under-reported, 16-year U.S. intervention in Somalia has followed a similar pattern to the larger U.S. war in Afghanistan: an influx of special forces and a steady increase in air strikes has not only failed to stop terrorism, but both al-Shabaab and a local affiliate of ISIS have grown during this time period,” said William Hartung of the Center for International Policy. “It's another case of failing to learn the lessons of the United States' policy of endless war: that military action is as likely or more likely to spark terrorist action as to reduce or prevent it.”
Somalia is no anomaly. Across the continent, despite escalating operations by commandos as well as conventional American forces and their local allies and proxies, Washington’s enemies continue to proliferate. As Vice News reported, a 2012 Special Operations Command strategic planning document listed five prime terror groups on the continent. An October 2016 update counted seven by name -- the Islamic State, Ansar al-Sharia, al-Qaida in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, al-Murabitun, Boko Haram, the Lord’s Resistance Army, and al-Shabaab -- in addition to “other violent extremist organizations.” The Pentagon’s Africa Center for Strategic Studies now offers a tally of 21 “active militant Islamist groups” on the continent. In fact, as reported at The Intercept, the full number of terrorist organizations and other “illicit groups” may already have been closer to 50 by 2015.
Saving SOF through Proxy War?
As wars and interventions have multiplied, as U.S. commandos have spread across the planet, and as terror groups have proliferated, the tempo of operations has jumped dramatically. This, in turn, has raised fears among think-tank experts, special ops supporters, and members of Congress about the effects on those elite troops of such constant deployments and growing pressure for more of them. “Most SOF units are employed to their sustainable limit,” General Thomas told members of Congress last spring. “Despite growing demand for SOF, we must prioritize the sourcing of these demands as we face a rapidly changing security environment.” Yet the number of countries with special ops deployments hit a new record last year.
At a November 2017 conference on special operations held in Washington, influential members of the Senate and House Armed Services Committees acknowledged growing strains on the force. For Jack Reed, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, the solution is, as he put it, “to increase numbers and resources.”
While Republican Senator Joni Ernst did not foreclose the possibility of adding to already war-swollen levels of commandos, she much prefers to farm out some operations to other forces: “A lot of the missions we see, especially if you... look at Afghanistan, where we have the train, advise, and assist missions, if we can move some of those into conventional forces and away from SOF, I think that’s what we need to do.” Secretary of Defense James Mattis has already indicated that such moves are planned. Leigh Claffey, Ernst’s press secretary, told TomDispatch that the senator also favors “turning over operations to capable indigenous forces.”
Ernst’s proxies approach has, in fact, already been applied across the planet, perhaps nowhere more explicitly than in Syria in 2017. There, SOCOM’s Thomas noted, U.S. proxies, including both Syrian Arabs and Kurds, “a surrogate force of 50,000 people... are working for us and doing our bidding.” They were indeed the ones who carried out the bulk of the fighting and dying during the campaign against the Islamic State and the capture of its capital, Raqqa.
However, that campaign, which took back almost all the territory ISIS held in Syria, was exceptional. U.S. proxies elsewhere have fared far worse in recent years. That 50,000-strong Syrian surrogate army had to be raised, in fact, after the U.S.-trained Iraqi army, built during the 2003-2011 American occupation of that country, collapsed in the face of relatively small numbers of Islamic State militants in 2014. In Mali, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Honduras, and elsewhere, U.S.-trained officers have carried out coups, overthrowing their respective governments. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, where special ops forces have been working with local allies for more than 15 years, even elite security forces are still largely incapable of operating on their own. According to the Pentagon’s 2017 semi-annual report to Congress, Afghan commandos needed U.S. support for an overwhelming number of their missions, independently carrying out only 17% of their 2,628 operations between June 1, 2017, and November 24, 2017.
Indeed, with Special Operations forces acting, in the words of SOCOM’s Thomas, as “the main effort, or major supporting effort for U.S. [violent extremist organization]-focused operations in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, across the Sahel of Africa, the Philippines, and Central/South America,” it’s unlikely that foreign proxies or conventional American forces will shoulder enough of the load to relieve the strain on the commandos.
Bulking up Special Operations Command is not, however, a solution, according to the Center for International Policy’s Hartung. “There is no persuasive security rationale for having U.S. Special Operations forces involved in an astonishing 149 countries, given that the results of these missions are just as likely to provoke greater conflict as they are to reduce it, in large part because a U.S. military presence is too often used as a recruiting tool by local terrorist organizations,” he told TomDispatch. “The solution to the problem of the high operational tempo of U.S. Special Operations forces is not to recruit and train more Special Operations forces. It is to rethink why they are being used so intensively in the first place.”
Nick Turse is the managing editor of TomDispatch, a fellow at the Nation Institute, and a contributing writer for the Intercept. His website is NickTurse.com.
THE NEW STREAMLINED RSN LOGIN PROCESS: Register once, then login and you are ready to comment. All you need is a Username and a Password of your choosing and you are free to comment whenever you like! Welcome to the Reader Supported News community.