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How to Run a Successful Impeachment Hearing Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51809"><span class="small">Ian Millhiser, Vox</span></a>   
Monday, 28 October 2019 12:49

Millhiser writes: "If Democrats want the Trump impeachment hearings to succeed, they cannot rely on a process that seems designed to ensure that every member of the committee gets five minutes of screen time and to accomplish little else."

Sen. Sam Ervin listening as Sen. Howard Baker (left), Sam Dash (right) and an unidentified man confer during the Watergate hearings. (photo: Gjon Mili/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images)
Sen. Sam Ervin listening as Sen. Howard Baker (left), Sam Dash (right) and an unidentified man confer during the Watergate hearings. (photo: Gjon Mili/The LIFE Picture Collection/Getty Images)


How to Run a Successful Impeachment Hearing

By Ian Millhiser, Vox

28 October 19

 

o far, most of the House impeachment investigation into President Trump has taken place behind closed doors — the ordinary process for this sort of investigation, no matter what some House Republicans may claim. The Clinton and Nixon impeachment processes both began with a private investigation to gather facts before taking those facts public, as did the Republican-led House Select Committee on Benghazi’s investigation.

But the Trump impeachment investigation is likely to go public very soon. According to the Washington Post, public hearings could begin as soon as mid-November. The hearings may give Democrats their best chance to make the case to voters that Trump’s actions warrant removing him from office.

On the other hand, there are few spectacles in Washington that are more useless than the typical congressional hearing. 

Unprepared members of Congress, often racing from a fundraiser or a meeting with a lobbyist, read staff-prepared questions with little time to follow up. In the House of Representatives, each member may have only five minutes of questioning time before the talking stick is passed to someone else — typically a member of the other party.

It’s almost impossible to keep a narrative going, or to wear down a witness. The topic of questioning can change every time a new lawmaker begins their time at the mic. When a particularly effective questioner gets a chance to speak, hostile witnesses can filibuster until the end of that lawmaker’s time. And every time a member of the opposing party steps up, the questions can rapidly descend into conspiracy theories touted by the least responsible conservative outlets.

Maybe this disjointed feast of grandstanding is good enough for a hearing investigating how a deputy undersecretary managed a federal grant program. But it is no way to bring down a president. Just think of last July’s hearing with special counsel Robert Mueller, a debacle for Democrats, where Democratic lawmakers struggled to extract interesting answers from a surprisingly reluctant witness — while many Republicans touted conspiracy theories about Russian false flags and secret “Western” intelligence operatives.

If Democrats want the Trump impeachment hearings to succeed, they cannot rely on a process that seems designed to ensure that every member of the committee gets five minutes of screen time and to accomplish little else.

The hearings are all the more important because it is so unlikely that the Republican-controlled Senate will ultimately vote to remove Trump from office. As a constitutional matter, the House could hold an impeachment vote whenever it wants, with or without hearings. 

But, as a practical matter, the impeachment hearings are Democrats’ opportunity to argue before a jury consisting of the entire American electorate. 

Democrats “should remember that this isn’t a criminal trial, and their job isn’t to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump committed some particular crime,” Josh Chafetz, a law professor at Cornell and the author of Congress’s Constitution: Legislative Authority and the Separation of Powers, told me. “Their job is to convince the American public that Trump should be removed from office.” 

There is no surefire way to ensure that the Trump impeachment hearings will end with Trump being removed from office, or even that they will convince the public at large that Trump is unfit for the presidency. But there are ways to maximize the chance that the hearings will prove their case.

The hearings should not waste time. They should not get bogged down in procedural fights. And, above all, they should be conducted by professionals who know how to win over a jury as large as the entire American electorate.

Where things stand right now

For the moment, the impeachment process looks fairly disjointed.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced in late September, not long after news of Trump’s call with the Ukrainian president broke, that the House would hold an official impeachment inquiry. That inquiry is spread across six different committees — the House committees on the Judiciary, Intelligence, Oversight and Reform, Foreign Affairs, Financial Services, and Ways and Means. Thus far, the Intelligence Committee has taken the lead on the inquiry into Trump’s Ukraine call.

The advantage of spreading the inquiry out over many committees is that it allows members of Congress who are accustomed to working on particular issues to specialize in the parts of the impeachment inquiry where they are most knowledgeable. It also avoids a turf war among lawmakers who might be upset if they were excluded from the investigation.

The disadvantage is that the hearings can quickly become sprawling and difficult to keep up with. Committees are likely to move at different paces, and to roll out news as they uncover it. Multiple hearings could occur on the same day, and it can be difficult for voters to tell which hearing is the most important. 

Much of the investigation, moreover, takes place in private. These closed-door sessions are an ordinary part of the investigative process — it’s a good idea to know what potential witnesses may say before putting them on television — and some of the same witnesses may testify openly in later hearings. But the closed-door meetings also fueled Republican conspiracy theories about what’s going on in the private sessions.

Eventually, however, there are likely to be public impeachment hearings on Ukraine, and potentially on other issues that arise during the impeachment inquiry. When that happens, Democrats can take several steps to maximize the effectiveness of the hearing and to minimize Republicans’ chances of turning them into an easily forgotten spectacle.

Questions should be asked by a professional prosecutor, not by members of Congress

There is an entire profession devoted to the task of convincing lay people that a person accused of a crime is guilty: prosecutors. 

If Democrats want the impeachment hearings to succeed, they shouldn’t send amateurs even amateur members of Congress — to do a professional’s job.

This has been evident to members of Congress investigating past scandals, who have brought in outside prosecutors to do at least some of the questioning. As attorney Seth Rosenthal notes in a 2007 paper arguing that Supreme Court confirmation hearings should be led by expert counsel: “Congress has tasked outside counsel with leading the investigations into and conducting questioning at hearings on the following matters, among others: Watergate; the Iran-Contra scandal; the Keating Five scandal; and Whitewater.”

One of the turning points in the Watergate investigation, for example, came when Nixon aide Alexander Butterfield revealed to Senate Watergate Committee Chief Counsel Samuel Dash — the lawyer the Senate brought on to question witnesses — that the president knew that the Oval Office was bugged. Dash “became known for his measured questioning of White House witnesses, slowly drawing out answers that sometimes struck like bombshells,” according to the New York Times.

“Butterfield’s revelation that Nixon himself knew his office was bugged led directly to the supreme court decision, in United States v Nixon, that the president must hand over the tapes” the Guardian noted in its obituary of Dash. “And, that decision led, in August 1974, to Nixon’s forced resignation.” 

It is, of course, impossible to know if Watergate would have ended differently if Dash hadn’t been present. But, by bringing in a former prosecutor to question White House witnesses, Senate investigators helped ensure that his questions would be conducted with a degree of skill and professionalism.

Of course, there are some members of Congress who are, themselves, former prosecutors. But one reason to turn questioning over to a full-time lawyer is simply that this lawyer could devote all their time to building the case against Trump. A member of Congress simply doesn’t have the capacity to do that.

To begin with, members of Congress spend an obscene amount of time raising money. As former Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY) noted in a 2016 op-ed, in less than 16 years in Congress “I’ve spent roughly 4,200 hours in call time, attended more than 1,600 fund-raisers just for my own campaign and raised nearly $20 million in increments of $1,000, $2,500 and $5,000 per election cycle.”

When they aren’t raising money, members of Congress often spend hours of time each day meeting with constituents and lobbyists about issues that range from historically important to parochial. But few of these meetings will involve impeachment. Most members also spend hours — perhaps as much as 10-12 hours in many weeks for lawmakers from western states — in airports and on airplanes flying to and from their district.

The result is that representatives, even those with distinguished careers as prosecutors in their pasts, rarely have enough time to adequately prepare for hearings. To be sure, members of Congress are likely to spend much more time preparing for a historic showdown with a hated president than they put into the typical hearing. But their jobs as lawmakers will unavoidably pull them in many directions.

As Reece Rushing, who served as director of Oversight and Investigations for Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee, told me, lawmakers are often completely dependent on staff to write their questions — and the ones who tried to come up with their own questions typically made matters worse. Committees have better hearings, according to Rushing, when “members did not deviate from the prepared material.”

Members of Congress are “just sort of a mouthpiece” for their staff at these hearings. They simply “don’t have the time” to know all the details a questioner needs to know to conduct an effective interrogation on their own, Rushing said. 

One caveat is that turning question time entirely over to professional counsel would likely require the House to change its rules — though the rules do allow counsel to share question time with members of Congress. Currently, those rules allow a committee to give a staff member the power to question a witness, but this time must be split evenly between the majority and the minority parties, and “may not exceed one hour in the aggregate.”

But even just a half-hour of professional questioning per witness would be preferable to the way House committees typically operate.

The most skilled questioner should receive extra time

Realistically, it is unlikely that lawmakers will fully relinquish their questioning time to a professional prosecutor. Nor does history suggest that they need to fully relinquish this role in order to hold successful hearings. The Senate Watergate hearings split questioning between senators and professional counsel. One of the most memorable moments of those hearings was Sen. Howard Baker’s (R-TN) question to White House Counsel John Dean: “What did the president know, and when did he know it?

But even though lawmakers will almost certainly spend some time questioning witnesses, there are ways to ensure that the most effective questioners receive additional time.

The House Rules typically limit questioning to five minutes per member at hearings, but the same rules provide that “a committee may adopt a rule or motion permitting a specified number of its members to question a witness for longer than five minutes,” provided that the amount of extended time is divided equally between the majority and the minority and does not exceed one hour per witness.

There are plenty of lawmakers who “have actually practiced law” and these members are more likely to be effective questioners than their colleagues, as Molly Claflin, chief oversight counsel at activist watchdog group American Oversight and a former counsel to the Senate Judiciary Committee, told me.

Rushing noted that it may also be possible for members to yield time to others: “It could be a smart move,” for example, “to have members give back their time” to the chair.

Having one person conduct questioning, Claflin said, would “be more effective because you will still have one train of thought.” This avoids a situation where the ”next person comes on and then we’ve switched topics altogether.”

It also avoids a situation where even Democratic members may subvert the hearings for their own selfish interests. Members in heavily Democratic districts may be tempted to use the hearing to give a long, angry speech about why Trump is terrible — the sort of thing that could earn them positive coverage at home but that will do little to advance the case for impeachment. 

Democrats in swing districts, meanwhile, could go to such lengths to avoid looking like partisans that their questions could undermine their party’s broader case — and some of these members might actually prefer to pass their time to someone else so that they don’t become the face of impeachment back home.

Don’t count on the courts

The hearings are also important because Democrats are unlikely to be able to make their case in the courts, or even by uncovering documents the White House wishes to keep secret.

Last May, federal Judge Amit Mehta ruled that Trump’s accounting firm must turn over financial documents sought by House investigators, and a federal appeals court upheld that decision earlier this month. Yet House investigators still do not have the documents. And, it is likely to be months or even potentially more than a year before the House’s subpoena is enforced, and that’s assuming that the Supreme Court doesn’t ultimately side with Trump.

The point is that the wheels of the law turn very slowly, and a court victory that takes months or years to win may be no victory at all.

“The law may be on your side,” Rushing said, “but time isn’t.” If Democrats go hunting for incriminating documents that will turn the nation hard against Trump, they may find them — in 2021.

A closely related risk is that a battle over subpoenas can quickly transform a conversation about a gross betrayal of the public trust into a conversation about eye-glazing topics like executive privilege. “Outside of about a one-mile radius around the Capitol Building, no one really cares about process,” Claflin said. 

Every minute the news focuses on whether the White House should turn over documents is a minute the news is not focused on Trump’s attempt to shakedown a foreign leader for personal gain. And that’s a gift to Donald Trump.

It’s important, in other words, to not let a bunch of process fights cover up the fact that Democrats already have damning evidence against the president. Democrats, in Rushing’s words, are “starting out with the smoking gun.” 

The impeachment process began after the White House released a readout of a call where Trump suggested that US military assistance for Ukraine would be contingent upon Ukraine doing political favors for Trump. White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney admitted on national television that this was a quid pro quo — although he later, somewhat incompetently, tried to walk that admission back. And senior administration officials testified in private sessions that Trump made “security assistance money” contingent upon political favors.

Subpoenaed documents and the like may help bolster the case against Trump, but the House investigation began very close to its conclusion.

The Watergate scandal was a drama that took years to unfold — beginning with a June 17, 1972 break-in at the Watergate Hotel and culminating in the August 5, 1974 release of the “smoking gun tape,” where President Nixon is caught on tape conspiring to shut down the investigation into this break-in. 

Democrats do not need to spend months or years hunting for a similarly damning piece of evidence because they already have it. They just need to make sure that the American people understand what they have.

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FOCUS: Mark Zuckerberg Doesn't Know What the First Amendment Is For Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=46742"><span class="small">Masha Gessen, The New Yorker</span></a>   
Monday, 28 October 2019 12:14

Gessen writes: "What is the First Amendment for? I ask my students this every year."

Mark Zuckerberg, the C.E.O. of Facebook, is symptomatic of our collective refusal to think about speech and the media in complicated ways. (photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images)
Mark Zuckerberg, the C.E.O. of Facebook, is symptomatic of our collective refusal to think about speech and the media in complicated ways. (photo: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images)


Mark Zuckerberg Doesn't Know What the First Amendment Is For

By Masha Gessen, The New Yorker

28 October 19

 

hat is the First Amendment for? I ask my students this every year. Every year, several people quickly respond that the First Amendment guarantees Americans the right to speak without restriction. True, I say, but what is it for? It’s so that Congress doesn’t pass a law that would limit the right to free speech, someone often says. Another might add that, in fact, the government does place some limits on free speech—you can’t shout “fire” in a crowded theatre, or say certain words on broadcast television and radio. I ask the question a third time: What is the First Amendment for? There is a pause as students realize that I am asking them to shift their frame of reference. Then someone says that the First Amendment is for democracy, for the plurality of opinions in the national conversation.

My students are undergraduates, some of whom will become journalists. Before they leave the confines of their small liberal-arts college, they will develop a more complicated view of politics and the media than the one they started with. The adult world they are entering, however, generally sticks to an elemental level of discourse. Last week, for example, the head of the country’s largest media company, Mark Zuckerberg, of Facebook, gave a nearly forty-minute lecture in which he reiterated that the right to free speech was invented so that it wouldn’t be restricted. In Zuckerberg’s narrative, as my colleague Andrew Marantz has written, freedom of speech, guaranteed by technological progress, is the beginning and the end of the conversation; this narrative willfully leaves out the damage that technological progress—and unchallenged freedom of all speech—can inflict. But the problem isn’t just Zuckerberg; more precisely, Zuckerberg is symptomatic of our collective refusal to think about speech and the media in complicated ways.

“People having the power to express themselves at scale is a new kind of force in the world,” Zuckerberg said in his address. “It’s a fifth estate, alongside the other power structures in our society.” Zuckerberg was appropriating a countercultural term: beginning in the nineteen-sixties, “the fifth estate” referred to alternative media in the United States. Now the head of a new-media monopoly was using the term to differentiate Facebook from the news media, presumably to bolster his argument that Facebook should not be held to the same standards of civic responsibility to which we hold the fourth estate.

This strategy of claiming not to be the media has worked well for Facebook. On Monday, when Bloomberg broke the news that Zuckerberg has advised the Presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg on campaign hires, the story called Zuckerberg “one of tech’s most powerful executives.” CNN referred to him and his wife, Priscilla Chan, as “two of America’s most influential businesspeople and philanthropists.” Vox’s Recode vertical called him “the world’s third-richest person” and observed that he had become so toxic that “accepting a political donation from Mark Zuckerberg in 2020 is nowhere close to worth the money.” (The Times appears not to have covered the story for now.) Any one of these frames makes for an important and troubling story: a Presidential campaign in bed with a major tech corporation, influenced by and possibly intertwined with one of the country’s richest men—that is bad. It’s worse when one recalls Buttigieg’s attempts to go after Elizabeth Warren during last week’s Democratic debate. Warren has called for breaking up Facebook’s social-media monopoly, and Zuckerberg has referred to Warren as an “existential” threat to the company. Now imagine if it were the head of ABC or CNN or the New York Times Company who had served as an informal hiring consultant to a Presidential candidate. It would almost certainly be a bigger story and more broadly perceived as troublesome. Most of us still believe that the media are an essential component of democracy, and that a media outlet that is partisan or committed to a single candidate, but not in a transparent way, is a bad democratic actor.

The news media have traditionally borne the responsibility for insuring that the actual purpose of the First Amendment is fulfilled. Yet Americans are content to leave this essential component of democracy to profit-driven corporations with next to no regulatory oversight. We accept it as the natural order of things that the flow and volume of news is largely determined by the needs of advertisers, and that, when advertising dollars dry up, so does the news. We are so afraid of censorship—or, perhaps more accurately, we have such lazy ways of thinking about accountability—that we would rather let newspapers die and media corporations form monopolies than consider government regulation and public funding. In the past three decades, most of the public conversation about news media—as facilitated by the news media—has devolved to the level of my students’ initial, knee-jerk response to the First Amendment question. Much like Zuckerberg in his free-speech speech, or in his stubborn refusal to remove misleading political ads, we talk about rights without talking about responsibilities. This is what has allowed Facebook to evade responsibility, and to avoid even being identified as a media company.

With Facebook and other new media, technology has accelerated and amplified existing processes and problems. Facebook is not an anomaly in the American media system—it is precisely the result of rampant profit-seeking, lazy thinking, and a lack of civic responsibility. Of course Zuckerberg tells Buttigieg whom to hire. Of course he sees Warren, and not Trump, as an existential threat. Of course Facebook allows Trump to run false ads. The company doesn’t know what the First Amendment is for—and we are not making it learn.

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FOCUS: America Came Together to Boo Donald Trump at the World Series Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=46173"><span class="small">Matthew Dessem, Slate</span></a>   
Monday, 28 October 2019 10:51

Dessem writes: "President Donald Trump attended Game 5 of the World Series in Washington on Sunday night, giving a crowd of patriotic Americans enjoying our national pastime an unexpected opportunity to let their president know exactly what they thought of him. They did."

World Series fans boo Donald Trump. (photo: MSNBC)
World Series fans boo Donald Trump. (photo: MSNBC)


America Came Together to Boo Donald Trump at the World Series

By Matthew Dessem, Slate

28 October 19

 

resident Donald Trump attended Game 5 of the World Series in Washington on Sunday night, giving a crowd of patriotic Americans enjoying our national pastime an unexpected opportunity to let their president know exactly what they thought of him. They did. The president’s attendance was announced during a salute to the troops after the third inning of the game between the Washington Nationals and the Houston Astros, and when he appeared on the Jumbotron, the crowd erupted into thunderous boos, later chanting, “Lock him up!” The Oscars are still a long way off, but this is clearly the feel-good movie of the year: 

Can we see that from another angle? 

How about a shot of Trump slowly realizing he’s being booed on the same day he announced the death of the leader of ISIS? Do we have one of those? 

It’s Schadenfreude Christmas, apparently! So does Schadenfreude Santa have any footage of the crowd chanting “Lock him up?” Well, let’s just say it looks like you’ve been very good: 

So what about big signs urging the president’s impeachment? Did anyone bring those? 

It’s probably too much to hope that someone camped out behind home plate with a sign reading “VETERANS FOR IMPEACHMENT,” though, right? 

Social media has been celebrating Trump’s reception at the World Series all night, where Ben Rothenberg pointed out that it’s not the first time Trump has been booed at a sporting event. In 2015, after Trump had announced his candidacy but before he’d started ruining the planet in earnest, he got a similarly warm reception when he appeared on the Jumbotron at the U.S. Open. 

Trump reportedly headed out before tonight’s game was finished. It’d almost be enough to make you believe the world was headed in the right direction, if not for the fact that in a world headed anywhere near the right direction, Donald Trump would not be getting booed at the World Series, because in that world Donald Trump would not be attending the World Series, because in that world Donald Trump would never have gotten anywhere near political power. Unfortunately, we don’t live in that world, but after years of horrifying footage of people wildly cheering Trump’s deranged rambling at his rallies, it’s reassuring—restorative, even!—to know that the rest of the country hasn’t forgotten how to greet tyrants. Home run, America.

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No Wonder Wall Street Fears Warren and Sanders - They Speak for the People Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=9643"><span class="small">Robert Reich, Guardian UK</span></a>   
Monday, 28 October 2019 08:21

Reich writes: "Today's great divide is not between left and right. It's between democracy and oligarchy."

Robert Reich. (photo: unknown)
Robert Reich. (photo: unknown)


No Wonder Wall Street Fears Warren and Sanders - They Speak for the People

By Robert Reich, Guardian UK

28 October 19


Donald Trump’s victory showed right v left is irrelevant but he made anti-establishment fury work for those in charge

n the conventional view of American politics, Joe Biden is a moderate while Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders are on the left and Donald Trump is on the right.

This conventional view is rubbish. Today’s great divide is not between left and right. It’s between democracy and oligarchy.

There are no longer “moderates”. There’s no longer a “center”. The most powerful force in American politics today is anti-establishment fury at a rigged system.

Four decades ago, when America had a large and growing middle class, the left wanted stronger social safety nets and more public investment in schools, roads and research. The right sought greater reliance on the free market.

In those days, a general election was like a competition between two hotdog vendors on a long boardwalk extending from left to right. To maximize sales, each had to move to the middle. If one strayed too far left or right, the other would move beside him and take all sales from the rest of the boardwalk.

This older American politics is now obsolete. As wealth and power have moved to the top and the middle class has shrunk, more Americans have joined the ranks of the working class and poor.

Most Americans – regardless of whether they were once on the left or right – have become politically disempowered and economically insecure. Nowadays it’s the boardwalk versus private jets on their way to the Hamptons.

As Rahm Emmanuel, Barack Obama’s chief of staff and former mayor of Chicago, told the New York Times: “This is really the crack-up. Usually fights are Democrats versus Republicans, one end of Pennsylvania versus the other, or the left versus the right. Today’s squabbles are internal between the establishment versus the people that are storming the barricades.”

In 2016, Trump harnessed many of these frustrations, as did Sanders.

The frustrations today are larger than they were in 2016. Corporate profits are higher, as is CEO pay. Markets are more monopolized. Wealth is more concentrated at the top. Although the official unemployment rate is lower, most peoples’ incomes have gone nowhere and they have even less job security.

Meanwhile, Washington has become even swampier. Big corporations, Wall Street and billionaires have flooded it with money and lobbyists. Trump has given out all the tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and subsidies they have ever wanted. The oligarchy is in charge.

Why hasn’t America risen up in protest? Because American democracy was dysfunctional even before Trump ran for president. The moneyed interests had already taken over much of it.

It’s hard for people to get very excited about returning to the widening inequalities and growing corruption of the decades before Trump. Which partly explains why Biden is foundering.

At the same time, Trump and his propagandists at Fox News have channeled working-class rage against the establishment into fears of imaginary threats such as immigrants, socialists and a “deep state”.

But a large majority of Americans – right and left, Republican as well as Democrat – could get excited about moving toward a real democracy and economy that worked for the many.

This is why the oligarchy is so worried about Warren’s rise to frontrunner status in some polls.

Politico reports that Democratic-leaning executives on Wall Street, in Silicon Valley and across the corporate world are watching her with an increasing panic.

“Ninety-seven per cent of the people I know in my world are really, really fearful of her,” billionaire Michael Novogratz told Bloomberg.

These Democratic oligarchs hope Biden, or perhaps Pete Buttigieg or Amy Klobuchar, can still take Warren out.

In just the third quarter, Buttigieg raised about $25,000 from executives at Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and hedge fund giants like Bridgewater, Renaissance Technologies and Elliott Management. And another $150,000 from donors who described their occupation as “investor”.

If Biden implodes and neither Buttigieg nor Klobuchar takes the lead from Warren, Wall Street and corporate Democrats hope former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg will ride into the primary at the last minute.

It won’t work. The stark reality is that Democratscannot defeat Trump’s authoritarian populism with an establishment candidate who fronts for the oligarchy.

The only way Democrats win is with an agenda of fundamental democratic and economic reform, such as provided by Warren and also by Sanders.

Unless Democrats stand squarely on the side of democracy against oligarchy, the risk on election day is that too many Americans will either stand with Trump or stay home.

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Baghdadi's Death Doesn't Mean What Trump Thinks It Does Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=37428"><span class="small">Fred Kaplan, Slate</span></a>   
Monday, 28 October 2019 08:21

Kaplan writes: "The killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a big deal in the fight against terrorism - but not as big a deal as President Donald Trump made it out to be in his 50 - minute press conference on Sunday morning."

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at a mosque in Mosul, Iraq, in 2014. (photo: Getty Images)
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi at a mosque in Mosul, Iraq, in 2014. (photo: Getty Images)


Baghdadi's Death Doesn't Mean What Trump Thinks It Does

By Fred Kaplan, Slate

28 October 19


The ISIS leader’s killing is a moment of military triumph that the president has cheapened and politicized.

he killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a big deal in the fight against terrorism—but not as big a deal as President Donald Trump made it out to be in his 50-minute press conference on Sunday morning. 

It is a big deal, as an act of justice, because Baghdadi had murdered and brutalized so many people in his quest—for a while, quite successful—to claim a swath of Iraq and Syria as a caliphate and himself as its holy leader. 

It is a big deal as an elaborate operation involving special operations forces, intelligence from at least a few countries, and coordination from several more. Trump thanked Russia, Iraq, and Turkey—for allowing U.S. forces to operate in an area of northwestern Syria, where they had never had much presence—as well as the Syrian Kurds, leaving unmentioned the fact that, given his abandonment of them earlier this month, they are unlikely to be so helpful in the future. 

But the killing is less of a big deal because, not least, as Trump has boasted on previous occasions, ISIS had already been severely reduced in stature and was no longer such a centralized organization. Its members still carried out terrorist activities, but Baghdadi no longer directed them to the degree he once had. 

Bruce Hoffman, a specialist on terrorism at Georgetown University, said in an email Sunday morning that Baghdadi’s death may merely drive “the remaining ISIS forces into an alliance with al-Qaida”—which has experienced a bit of a revival in recent years. 

ISIS began, after all, as a splinter group from al-Qaida. The two groups still have many ideological similarities; “their estrangement,” Hoffman said, “was always the product of an outsize clash of egos of its two leaders”—Baghdadi and al-Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri—“rather than substantive divisions or core beliefs.” A modus vivendi between the two groups is particularly plausible, Hoffman said, because Baghdadi’s strategy ultimately proved far less successful than “al-Qaida’s long-standing counsels for strategic patience, which have resulted in both its resilience and consolidated presence in Idlib province”—the last remaining rebel stronghold in Western Syria. 

In any case, Hoffman added, the militants in both al-Qaida and ISIS “regard their struggle as divinely ordained,” so “the death of a mere mortal”—even one as charismatic as Baghdadi or bin Laden (who, at the time of the raid on his compound, was much more powerful)—“is inconsequential.” 

In short, Trump’s triumphalism may prove as short-sighted as that of his predecessors. Hoffman said, “This has always been the problem with our approach to counterterrorism: the temptation to declare victory again and again, especially given our electoral cycle”—for instance, George W. Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” banner after toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the celebrations surrounding Barack Obama’s announcement of Osama bin Laden’s killing in 2011. 

Trump’s special brand of triumphalism might also sour what could otherwise have been a much-needed moment of success amid the House impeachment hearings. When Obama appeared on nationwide television, for nine minutes, to announce bin Laden’s death, some Republican critics denounced him for what they saw as his self-congratulation. Trump tweeted at the time, “Stop congratulating Obama for killing bin Laden. The Navy Seals killed bin Laden.” 

Cut to seven years later, almost to the day, and, in his 50-minute Sunday-morning news conference, not only did Trump take credit for killing Baghdadi, he reveled in the act, describing the terrorist leader as “whimpering and crying and screaming all the way” as special forces and dogs chased him to the end of a tunnel, where he detonated a suicide vest, killing himself and three of his children, dying “like a dog … like a coward.” 

Trump also boasted that killing Baghdadi was a bigger deal than killing bin Laden—which is to say, that Donald Trump is a bigger deal than Barack Obama. “This is the biggest there is,” Trump said. “This is the worst ever. Osama bin Laden was big, but Osama bin Laden became big with the World Trade Center. This is a man who built a whole, as he would like to call it, a country.” 

Trump also claimed credit, as he has in the past, for warning about bin Laden in a book published a year before the 9/11 attack, when as he put it, almost no one had heard of al-Qaida. (He also, while on the subject of his books, noted that he’d written 12 of them, and “all of them did well.”) But in fact, this book, called The America We Deserve, only fleetingly mentioned bin Laden, who, in any case, was already quite well-known as the result of his earlier attack on the World Trade Center in 1993. 

Trump may hope to garner some political favor from the killing. But the gain is likely to be minimal. Harry Enten, CNN’s pollster, tweeted Sunday morning that the bin Laden raid gave Obama an “approval boost” that “lasted maybe a few weeks”—and that raid was widely viewed as the final revenge for bin Laden’s murder of 3,000 Americans. Baghdadi is less of a household name, and Trump’s repeated claims that he’d destroyed ISIS already may have blunted the killing’s political impact. 

Finally, and most puzzling, following his announcement, Trump repeated his claim that U.S. troops control Syria’s oil fields (which is untrue) and that he might invite companies like ExxonMobil to come in and drill (which they have neither the legal right nor the remotest desire to do). All of which raises, once again, the question: Is Trump putting more troops in Syria? Is he taking them out? And, whatever the case may be, why? 

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