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Here Are the Numbers Bernie Needs to Win Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=53580"><span class="small">Doug Johnson Hatlem, Jacobin</span></a>   
Saturday, 07 March 2020 09:21

Hatlem writes: "The delegate math looks better than the current media narrative suggests. Bernie Sanders and the movement behind him are still very much in the game. Here are the results he needs to win the nomination."

Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally at the University of Washington, in Seattle. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)
Bernie Sanders talks to supporters during a rally at the University of Washington, in Seattle. (photo: Joshua Trujillo/Seattlepi.com)


Here Are the Numbers Bernie Needs to Win

By Doug Johnson Hatlem, Jacobin

07 March 20


The delegate math looks better than the current media narrative suggests. Bernie Sanders and the movement behind him are still very much in the game. Here are the results he needs to win the nomination.

or all the talk of Joe Biden’s inevitability, the former vice president has won 45 percent or less of the delegates pledged to date. When the dust has settled on Super Tuesday ballot counting, his 50–75 delegate lead over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders will be smaller than Barack Obama’s more-than-100-delegate lead over Hillary Clinton at the end of February 2008. And it is far smaller than Clinton’s 224 pledged delegate lead over Sanders after Super Tuesday in 2016. Both of those races continued through June, and we should expect that 2020’s Democratic nomination process may well be even more competitive.

Bernie will have to hold Biden to something like 45 percent in the remaining contests. As implausible as that might seem at the moment, it should be remembered that just a week ago, Biden commanded only 15 percent of delegates available through the first three contests.

While Biden does have the wind at his back, “Gaffe Master Flash,” as Jon Stewart once dubbed him, will no longer be able to hide in a crowded field of eight or more candidates all vying for major attention. His speaking time in debates will now need to triple or quadruple, and the penchants for plagiarism and biography embellishment that helped sink previous Biden candidacies will now take center stage.

The Sanders campaign, meanwhile, is out with television ads trumpeting the fact that Bernie has also been friendly with Barack Obama — even earning the former president’s respect — and using Joe’s own explicit support for freezing Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. Those powerful words were only one small part of Biden’s decades-long crusade to balance the budget by cutting entitlements rather than increasing taxes on the wealthy or reining in military spending.

Here are two plausible paths that could see Bernie Sanders as the Democratic nominee come Milwaukee in July.

Path A: A “Just Short” Plurality (1,285+ or 52% of Remaining)

It does require a fair bit of whiplash to transition from the fourteen-month race, initially with twenty or more candidates, to a head-to-head contest in the space of just hours. It is marginally possible for Sanders to win a plurality in a head-to-head contest. (This path assumes again that Warren does not immediately endorse.) It would have to be a plurality, though, where Sanders also has a clear enough lead over Biden that party officials will have to think seriously about the destruction that would be wrought in elevating the second place candidate over the first.

Sanders would need to win about 52 percent of remaining delegates, finishing at something like 1,910 delegates to Biden’s approximately 1,870. Sanders would want the popular-vote lead in this scenario as well. Adding Elizabeth Warren’s 76 delegates (Warren supporting Sanders should not be assumed in this path) and even Tulsi Gabbard’s two delegates from American Samoa would not get Sanders to 1,990.

It would be possible, then, to block a first ballot win for Sanders with only Michael Bloomberg, Amy Klobuchar, and Pete Buttigieg unsuspending their candidacies just long enough to have their delegates cast a vote for them or for Biden on first ballot. Failing a coalition majority for Biden (the rules for such first-ballot coalitions are unclear, complex, and largely untested), superdelegates would be backup, providing one final Biden rescue effort on ballot number two in Milwaukee.

The only form of insurance against this turn of events for Sanders is that, more than anything else, it would signal not only a near-guaranteed second term for Donald Trump, but likely the end of the tenuous alliances that now make up the entire Democratic Party structure.

While the party establishment might risk that, it’s not at all certain they’d take that gamble — possibly even unlikely.

Path B: A Combined Majority (1,300+ or 53% of Remaining)

This path is very similar to Path A, but it’s more optimistic. We saw flashes in debates this summer of how powerful a tag team Warren and Sanders could be when it seemed that they were holding to an unstated nonaggression pact. All of that blew apart in the fall and especially into January. In this path, Warren immediately endorses Sanders, and they barnstorm the country together with energy and passion for big structural change. Sanders reaching 53 percent seems far more plausible in this imagined world.

It may well, however, be a dream far too good to be true. You can be sure that establishment Democrats are putting their very best foot forward in private to keep Warren from doing this, even if it most likely means selling her on reverting to her “neutral” stance of 2016 — or possibly even endorsing Biden.

Biden, the Zombie Candidate

After the surreal weekend that began on Saturday in South Carolina, one would be forgiven for thinking that the police have arrived and the party is over.

But Joe Biden is, in fact, a zombie candidate jolted back to life with a few phone calls from Obama. Now there’s nowhere left for the candidate to hide, though — the same candidate who wildly claimed to have been “arrested in South Africa with the UN ambassador on the streets of Soweto,” then walked it back a few days later. Such inventions would completely kill the chances of a lesser candidate. A living candidate.

What is the proper way to lay to rest a presidential campaign where the candidate himself has long since passed, but where no one — particularly the Democratic establishment — can afford to acknowledge it?

We’re all about find out.

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A Heartfelt Thanks to Elizabeth Warren Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=51635"><span class="small">Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog</span></a>   
Friday, 06 March 2020 13:27

Reich writes: "Your campaign was a model of substance and tenacity."

U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren. (photo: Getty)
U.S. senator Elizabeth Warren. (photo: Getty)


A Heartfelt Thanks to Elizabeth Warren

By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog

06 March 20

 

ear Elizabeth,

My congratulations and gratitude for your extraordinary campaign – your bold and detailed policy proposals; your eloquent advocacy of them and of your vision for America; your thoughtfulness and courage in standing up for women, for people of color, for working Americans, the poor and the oppressed; your kindness and patience in dealing with everyone (including fans who wanted selfies); your tirelessness and your decency; and your devotion to this country.

Your campaign was a model of substance and tenacity. You made your points about America’s misallocation of power, and the need for structural change, powerfully but without rancor. In a better America and at a better time, you would have sailed to victory.

You have inspired – and continue to inspire – millions. Thank you for everything you’ve done, and will continue to do.

Bob

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RSN | The 2020 Race: Sanders Wins Blue States/Biden Wins Red States Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=26125"><span class="small">Bill Simpich, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Friday, 06 March 2020 12:24

Simpich writes: "Bernie's win in California was an epic win - even more so for an American socialist."

Bernie Sanders, left, and Joe Biden chat before a Democratic presidential debate in Charleston, S.C. (photo: AP)
Bernie Sanders, left, and Joe Biden chat before a Democratic presidential debate in Charleston, S.C. (photo: AP)


The 2020 Race: Sanders Wins Blue States/Biden Wins Red States

By Bill Simpich, Reader Supported News

06 March 20

 

anders won the blue states – California, Colorado, Vermont, Iowa,
    New Hampshire, Nevada.
Biden won the red states – the Southern states, plus Texas and Oklahoma.
The sort-of-purple states? Biden won Minnesota, Massachusetts
    and probably Maine.
The sort-of-pink states? Sanders won Utah.

What did Michael Bloomberg’s attempt to buy this election win him?
    American Samoa.
What did Elizabeth Warren’s attempt to broker this campaign win her?
    Third place in Massachusetts.
My prediction? Both of them will drop out this week.

What do these results of the last month mean?
I think it means that African Americans may decide this race.
I was canvassing in West Oakland today – every African American I met
    was voting for Bernie.

In South Carolina, that was not the case.
Joe Biden is a good Catholic – he’s a believer, he went to all the churches.
Bernie Sanders is Jewish – he believes in food.
Joe glad-hands all the ministers.
Bernie refuses to bend the knee.

Have you noticed what Bernie says when asked about his spirituality?
He says, “I am who I am.”
For some – that means he’s an atheist.
For others – I am who I am is Yahweh.

That’s why I love Bernie, but it may have cost him.
If he had won South Carolina, this election would be over.
But now we are going to have a battle for the soul of the Democratic Party.
And unlike 2016 – Bernie is now winning diverse American cities.
I can’t wait.

Bernie’s win in California was an epic win – even more so for an
    American socialist.
Los Angeles County alone is larger than all but eleven states.
In Southern California and in south Texas, the lines were sometimes
    several hours long ... for African Americans, Latinos, and students.
Remember the five hour lines in Florida,
Standing in line for Obama?
With yahoos shouting, “Don’t give them water!”
This country knows no shame.

It’s hard to imagine a more minor force in disrupting elections than
    the Russians.
Furthermore, everyone in every country should have a say in
    American elections.
Furthermore, American leaders have disrupted elections on a worldwide
    basis since World War II.
Do you want the list? Do you really need the list? It’s right there
    on Wikipedia.
The major force?
The billionaires, the bought & paid-for election officials, and the
    corporate media.

Every major analyst called Bernie as the winner in California before
    midnight Eastern time.
Except MSNBC and CNN.

I don’t think the path to victory is won by convincing MSNBC,
    CNN, or the voters in Republican states.
But let’s find out.



Bill Simpich is an Oakland attorney who knows that it doesn't have to be like this. He was part of the legal team chosen by Public Justice as Trial Lawyer of the Year in 2003 for winning a jury verdict of 4.4 million in Judi Bari's lawsuit against the FBI and the Oakland police.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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FOCUS: We Need Scientists, Not Politicians, in Charge of the Coronavirus Response Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=28489"><span class="small">Bernie Sanders, USA TODAY</span></a>   
Friday, 06 March 2020 11:50

Sanders writes: "During an international health crisis like the coronavirus - known as COVID-19 - our government and health care system faces a fundamental test of whether they are adequately prepared to protect the American people."

Bernie Sanders speaks at a rally in Queens, New York, in October 2019. (photo: Bauzen/Getty)
Bernie Sanders speaks at a rally in Queens, New York, in October 2019. (photo: Bauzen/Getty)


We Need Scientists, Not Politicians, in Charge of the Coronavirus Response

By Bernie Sanders, USA TODAY

06 March 20


Let scientists and health professionals take charge. Stop spreading lies and focus on minimizing the risk and addressing health care needs.

uring an international health crisis like the coronavirus — known as COVID-19 — our government and health care system faces a fundamental test of whether they are adequately prepared to protect the American people. As reported cases of the coronavirus continue to grow and spread in our country and around the world, it is becoming clear that both the Trump administration and our current health care system are failing that test. We must do better.

President Trump’s response to the coronavirus has been incompetent, political and reckless. He has given wrong and misleading information about the outbreak, wasted precious time playing petty politics, and called the criticism of his coronavirus response a hoax. Even worse, he is all but ignoring the recommendations of scientists and public health professionals — the experts we must rely upon if we are to successfully address the pandemic.

In the midst of a global healthcare crisis, how could anybody gain public confidence by appointing Mike Pence to lead the coronavirus task force — a politician with no scientific background. We need a president who believes in science and listens to scientists. We need a president who is for expanding — not cutting — funding to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and National Institutes of Health (NIH). And we need a president who believes in American leadership that works with our international partners in the World Health Organization (WHO), and other entities that deal with global health. 

Government in action

The time has come for Donald Trump to stop playing politics with this deadly virus and put scientists and health experts back in charge.

Here is some of what must be done: the Senate must approve and Trump must sign the bipartisan emergency funding passed by the House, and the administration should provide any additional resources needed by state and local agencies on the frontlines of this effort. To measure the scope of the outbreak, the CDC and other agencies must have the ability to conduct thorough “contact tracing” investigations, so we know who has been exposed and whether they are spreading the disease. Hospitals and clinics must get ahead of this virus by increasing their intensive care unit (ICU), ventilator, and staffing capacity to prepare for a potential surge in cases. And since people who live in close living quarters are especially vulnerable, we must focus attention on institutions like nursing and long-term care facilities to both minimize transmission risk and address the healthcare needs of residents in the event of an outbreak.

Right now, city and state health departments across the country are still unprepared to test the potential number of patients who show symptoms, so the CDC must continue doing everything it can to coordinate and provide testing resources across the country.

Universal health care is a must

When we are dealing with the spread of a deadly virus, the first thing scientists tell us is that it is imperative for anyone who experiences flu-like symptoms to go to a doctor. But, as a result of our dysfunctional healthcare system, tens of millions of Americans are uninsured or underinsured and do not seek medical attention when they need it because they cannot afford it. The Trump administration must make clear that, until we pass universal health care, as every major country on earth has done, all Americans right now should be able to receive the medical care they need, without worrying about the cost. If we are to stop the spread of this disease, everybody should get the medical treatment they need regardless of their income. 

Further, with the spread of coronavirus, we have already seen examples of people hit with massive medical bills, simply for doing the right thing by getting tested when they experienced symptoms. Others may face bills in the hundreds of thousands for hospitalization, treatment and quarantine if they need it. This must end.

And once a vaccine is developed, it should be free. It is outrageous that during his Congressional testimony, Trump’s HHS Secretary Alex Azar would not guarantee that a coronavirus vaccine would be affordable to all. 

Finally, must also join every major country on earth and pass paid family and medical leave legislation into law. In America today, millions of workers who notice the early, common symptoms of coronavirus, like a cough or fever, are not able to miss one day of work because their boss could fire them. That is unacceptable. When Americans are forced to go to work sick everyone they come in contact with is at risk of getting sick as well. That is how infectious diseases spread.

Health experts agree that the spread of the coronavirus will likely get worse before it gets better. Donald Trump must stop spreading lies and fear, and leave the science to scientists and health professionals, not politicians. We must make certain that we are prepared for a pandemic, just as we do with FEMA and natural disasters.  

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Stop Saying Biden Is the 'Most Electable.' Trump Will Run Rings Round Him Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=49798"><span class="small">Nathan Robinson, Guardian UK</span></a>   
Friday, 06 March 2020 09:46

Robinson writes: "Supporters of Joe Biden are unlikely to be persuaded by most of the common criticisms. They know he can be rambling and unintelligible."

Democratic presidential candidate former vice-president Joe Biden at a primary night election rally in Columbia, South Carolina. (photo: Matt Rourke/AP)
Democratic presidential candidate former vice-president Joe Biden at a primary night election rally in Columbia, South Carolina. (photo: Matt Rourke/AP)


Stop Saying Biden Is the 'Most Electable.' Trump Will Run Rings Round Him

By Nathan Robinson, Guardian UK

06 March 20


Did we learn nothing from 2016? Trump is savagely effective at destroying establishment politicians – and Biden would lose

upporters of Joe Biden are unlikely to be persuaded by most of the common criticisms. They know he can be rambling and unintelligible. They know his record is unimpressive and that he doesn’t really have “policy proposals”. None of this matters, though, because to them he has the most important quality of all: he can beat Donald Trump. Nothing you can say about the former vice-president’s record, platform or mental state matters next to the argument that he is the best hope Democrats have of getting Trump out of office.

There’s just one problem: it’s a myth. It is a myth just as it was a myth that Hillary Clinton was a good candidate against Trump. Biden is not, in fact, the pragmatic choice. He would not beat Trump. He would lose. And we must say this over and over again. Forget his flubs. Forget his finger-nibbling. Biden would be crushed by Trump. If you want Trump out of office, don’t support Biden.

Last time round, Clinton supporters lived in a strange kind of denial. Anyone could see she had unique vulnerabilities Trump could exploit. She was a Wall Street candidate, and he was running to “drain the swamp”. She was under investigation by the FBI, and his pitch was that Washington was corrupt. She had supported the catastrophic Iraq war, and he portrayed himself as an outsider opponent of those wars. Trump could “run to her left” and make criticisms she would be unable to respond to, because they were accurate. Clinton’s attempts to attack Trump as an out-of-touch, reckless billionaire sex criminal would fail, because Trump would point out that she herself was out of touch, bought by billionaires and had an unrepentant alleged sex criminal as her husband and chief campaign surrogate.

Joe Biden will face many of the same problems. He has been in Washington since the age of 30, representing Delaware, the “capital of corporate America”. He is infamous for his connections to the credit card industry, and he has lied about his degree of support for the Iraq war. Even Matthew Yglesias of Vox calls Biden the “Hillary Clinton of 2020” for his corporate ties and war support. It is worth remembering what being the “Hillary Clinton” of anything means in an election against Trump.

Consider the Ukraine scandal, which is far worse for Biden electorally than usually acknowledged. Democrats have made this the centerpiece of their impeachment case against Trump, setting aside Trump’s most consequential crimes in order to focus on the charge that Trump tried to force the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. For Democrats, the scandal is clear-cut: Trump was abusing the power of his office to “damage a political rival”. And they believe that the American people will agree, and will be disturbed by Trump’s unethical behavior. They insist there was “no evidence” that Joe Biden did anything wrong, and that Trump and his associates have been unfairly trying to smear Biden.

Democrats who think this way are walking into a buzzsaw. Let us recall: Hunter Biden was paid up to $50,000 a month by a Ukrainian oil company. Officially, the chief Ukrainian prosecutor had an open investigation into that company. Joe Biden bragged about pressuring Ukraine to fire that prosecutor, which they did. Hunter Biden says he told his father about his position in Ukraine, and Joe Biden did not ask him to step down. Joe Biden contradicts his son’s story, saying they never discussed Hunter Biden’s “work” in Ukraine. One of them is not telling the truth.

Defenders of the Bidens like to point out that the prosecutor was fired for reasons that had absolutely nothing to do with Hunter Biden. In fact, there was widespread pressure to fire the prosecutor because he wasn’t doing enough on corruption investigations, and there was a consensus among experts that this was the case. Biden’s actions had absolutely nothing to do with his son and it is ridiculous to suggest that they did.

All this is true. But the important question is: does it sound good? And the answer is: no. It sounds terrible.

One reason Democrats are bad at politics is that they concern themselves too much with facts and not enough with impressions. With Clinton’s “emails scandal”, they tried to show Clinton had not technically violated the law, but having Barack Obama’s FBI actively investigating Clinton for possible criminal wrongdoing looked terrible regardless of the facts.

Left-leaning journalists and pundits love to “fact-check” Trump, as if proving that he has lied is in itself persuasive. But 2016 should have showed us how powerless “debunking” is next to “optics”. If you have a Democratic candidate who looks really corrupt, it doesn’t matter if they’re not. People don’t trust the press and they don’t trust politicians.

Imagine Biden running against Trump. Trump will run ads like this, over and over. Good luck responding. Remember that time you have to spend defending yourself against Trump’s accusations is time not spent talking about issues that affect people’s lives. And Biden has already shown little interest in drawing people’s attention to the areas where Democrats should run strong against Trump, such as healthcare, taxation, working conditions and the climate crisis.

His slogan is “no malarkey”, but since Biden himself is a longtime spewer of malarkey, Trump will successfully paint Biden as a hypocrite. Biden’s central case is that he is “not Trump”, that he will return the country to virtuousness and decency. But if Biden doesn’t actually look virtuous and decent – because he isn’t – the argument that he has made for himself collapses completely.

Biden does have some strengths against Trump that Clinton did not. We mock his rambling and tendency for “gaffes”, but these do mean he never sounds like a “scripted politician”. Clinton was criticized as robotic and focus-grouped. Biden is anything but focus-grouped; whatever pops into his head comes out his mouth.

At the same time, compared to Trump, Biden has:

Ask yourself: how likely is such a candidate to win? Is such a person really the one you want to run against Trump? Look at the enthusiasm Trump gets at his rallies. It is real. Trump has fans, and they’re highly motivated. How motivated are Biden’s “fans”? Is Biden going to fill stadiums? Are people going to crisscross the country knocking on doors for him? Say what you want about Clinton, but there were some truly committed Clinton fans, and she had a powerful base of support. By comparison, Biden looks weak, and Trump is savagely effective at preying on and destroying establishment politicians.

Complicated factchecks that attempt to explain the nuances of the Ukrainian criminal prosecution system will not help Biden. People’s already limited enthusiasm for Biden will further wane, and Trump will point to his “strong economy” and “job creation” as evidence Obama and Biden were weak failures. Biden will look tired and irrelevant, and possibly forget why he is even running in the first place. Trump will be re-elected comfortably.

If there are Biden supporters in your life, you need to have serious conversations with them. Do not dwell on things that do not matter to them, like Biden’s record on bussing, or his latest nonsensical comment. Instead, keep the focus on the main argument that is sustaining his campaign: the idea that he is the best candidate to beat Trump. He isn’t. His electability is a myth, and when we look honestly at the facts we can see that Biden is actually a dangerously poor candidate to run.

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