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King of the Hill |
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Tuesday, 23 October 2012 15:28 |
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Maher: "All the time now, I'm starting to hear, 'The president had complete control of Congress for two years, and did everything he wanted.' This is such bullshit."
Real Time host Bill Maher points out that the Democrats did not have 60 votes in the Senate for very long. (photo: HBO)

King of the Hill
By Bill Maher, Real Time
23 October 12
ll the time now, I’m starting to hear, "The president had complete control of Congress for two years, and did everything he wanted." This is such bullshit. First of all, no president has that much control over senators. You really think Ben Nelson, whose state deplores Obama, really feels that much pressure to be loyal to him?
But the bigger issue is, it’s just factually wrong. Democrats had a "filibuster proof" majority in the senate for a very short period. It took Al Franken seven months to get seated because of the recount dispute, and by the time he was, Ted Kennedy was dying. So Democrats really only had 60 senators from September 24, 2009, when Kennedy’s replacement was named, until February 4th, 2010, when Republican Scott Brown won the special election there. The senate was in session for just 72 days over that period, so that’s how long Obama had a real Democratic Congress -- 72 days, not two years.
Or, if you like charts:

One of the things that sucks is that Obama has never figured out a way to blame Congress for blocking things, presumably out of fear that it will make him appear weak. But how is he not running more against a Congress with a serial killer approval rating? He’s literally three or four times more popular than they are.

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Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter |
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Tuesday, 23 October 2012 15:25 |
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Silver writes: "Voters have more information about the candidates than they did before the first debate, which means that their additional impressions of the candidates could make less difference at the margin. Still, with the contest being so tight, any potential gain for Mr. Obama could matter."
Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama walks past each other on stage at the end of their last debate at Lynn University. (photo: Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

Obama Unlikely to Get Big Debate Bounce, but a Small One Could Matter
By Nate Silver, Five Thirty Eight Blog
23 October 12
nstant-reaction polls following Monday night's debate in Boca Raton, Fla., judged President Obama to be the winner.
A CBS News poll of undecided voters who watched the debate found 53 percent giving it to Mr. Obama, 23 percent to Mitt Romney and 24 percent declaring it a tie.
Mr. Obama's margin of victory in the poll was slightly wider than Mr. Romney's following the first presidential debate in Denver, which a similar CBS News poll gave to Mr. Romney at 46 percent to 22 percent.
Other polls, conducted among a broader group of voters rather than just undecided ones, suggested a smaller margin for the president.
A Public Policy Polling survey of voters in 11 swing states who watched the debate found them giving it to Mr. Obama, 53 percent to 42 percent.
A CNN poll of registered voters who watched the debate put Mr. Obama ahead, 48 percent to 40 percent. That was similar to Mr. Obama's 46-39 margin in a CNN poll of the second debate, and much smaller than Mr. Romney's 67-25 advantage in the first one.
An online poll by Google Consumer Surveys had Mr. Obama winning, 45.1 percent to 35.3 percent. His roughly 10-percentage-point margin in the poll is smaller than in a Google poll after the second debate, which gave it to Mr. Obama by 17 percentage points, or Mr. Romney's after the first, which he won by 22 points.
There is, obviously, some disagreement on the magnitude of Mr. Obama's advantage - the polls surveyed different types of voters and applied different methods to do so.
But averaging the results from the CBS News, CNN and Google polls, which conducted surveys after all three presidential debates along with the one between the vice-presidential candidates, puts Mr. Obama's margin at 16 percentage points.
That compares favorably to Mr. Obama's average 10-percentage-point margin after the second debate, and Vice President Joseph R. Biden's 6-point margin against Representative Paul Ryan, but is smaller than Mr. Romney's average 29-point win in Denver.

The first presidential debate produced roughly a 4-percentage-point bounce in head-to-head polls toward Mr. Romney, while the second presidential debate brought no appreciable bounce toward Mr. Obama.
It is tempting to split the difference, and assume that Mr. Obama might get a 1- or 2-point bounce in the polls, but there are some mitigating factors. The pace of the debate was slow, and it was competing against professional baseball and football games, which may have kept viewership down.
Voters have more information about the candidates than they did before the first debate, which means that their additional impressions of the candidates could make less difference at the margin. Historically, the bounces following the third presidential debate, in the years when one was held, were smaller than after the first two.
Finally, the subject of the debate, foreign policy, is not as important to most voters as economic policy, although some voters may have judged the candidates on style regardless of the substance of the conversation, which did end up including a fair amount of domestic policy as well.
Still, with the contest being so tight, any potential gain for Mr. Obama could matter.
Mr. Obama was roughly a 70 percent Electoral College favorite in the FiveThirtyEight forecast in advance of the debate, largely because he has remained slightly ahead in polls of the most important swing states.
If Mr. Obama's head-to-head polling were 2 percentage points higher right now, he would be a considerably clearer favorite in the forecast, about 85 percent. A 1-point bounce would bring him to 80 percent, and even a half-point bounce would advance his position to being a 75 percent favorite in the forecast.
Still, Mr. Obama should not take even that for granted. There have been some past debates when the instant-reaction polls judged one candidate to be the winner, but the head-to-head polls eventually moved in the opposite direction.

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FOCUS | The Liar Willard Romney |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=11104"><span class="small">Charles Pierce, Esquire</span></a>
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Tuesday, 23 October 2012 11:20 |
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Excerpt: "The rough consensus on foreign policy, to which Willard Romney spent most of the evening appealing, is a truncated, dismal thing, a grim march through a universe of bad options and worse choices."
As the president forcefully defended all the policies he'd put in place that Romney, on this evening at least, so enthusiastically supported, it became clearer that there is no nation in its right mind that would put its foreign policy in the hands of the Willard Romney who showed up to the debate. (photo: Marc Serota/Getty Images)

The Liar Willard Romney
By Charles Pierce, Esquire Magazine
23 October 12
t was early in the proceedings here on Monday night when I was struck with a horrible vision. It may have been right about that moment in the final presidential debate when Willard Romney - who, for most of the past two years, has been the most bellicose Mormon since they disbanded the Nauvoo Legion - looked deeply into the camera's eye and, inches from actual sincerity, said, "We can't kill our way out of this mess." Or, perhaps, it was when, in a discussion of his newfound dedication to comprehensive solutions to complex problems, he announced his devotion to "a peaceful planet," or when he cited a group of Arab scholars in support of loosening the grip of theocratic tyranny in the Middle East.
It was the horrible vision of John Bolton in four-point restraints.
You have to give Romney and his campaign credit. They said they were going to do it. They telegraphed the punch five months ago. They told the entire nation that there would come a day in which everything Willard Romney had said about anything in his entire seven-year quest to be president would be rendered, in the memorable word of Nixon White House flack Ron Ziegler, "inoperative." They told us quite honestly that their entire campaign was going to be based on an ongoing argument between the Willard Romney who ran for the Republican nomination and the Willard Romney who thereupon would run for president. They told us he would renege on his previous positions, and he has. They told us he would reverse his field over and over again, and he has. They told us that the only real principle to which the man will ever hold firm is that he will be utterly unprincipled.
They told us that, sooner or later, everybody who supported him through the primaries because he was the only Republican candidate who didn't sound like he belonged in a padded chapel would find themselves under the bus. And nowhere in his campaign was Romney firmer in his resolve than he was to a modernized version of the neoconservative agenda that so thrilled the world under the leadership of C-Plus Augustus. A full 17 of his 25 primary foreign-policy advisers had been deckhands on that particular plague ship, Sailing Master Bolton chief among them. And, at the end of the day, they all just turned out to be the last people to go sliding under the wheels. For the full 90 minutes of the foreign-policy debate at Lynn University here on Monday night, whether it was the president speaking or Romney, neoconservatism's breath barely clouded the mirror.
"I notice," Delaware attorney general Beau Biden told me in the spin room afterword, "that none of those people are out here talking right now."
(Of course, it is entirely possible that the Romney people have glowing internal poll numbers that indicate that, as long as he didn't show up on Monday night looking like Mr. Natural threatening to turn NATO into a cannabis society, he'd be okay. They then could have accepted with equanimity the several moments in which Romney plainly didn't have the faintest idea what he was talking about. Syria is Iran's "route to the sea"? Did Bain provide the financing behind the project that paved over the Persian Gulf when the rest of us weren't looking?)
Romney was for bilateral diplomatic solutions. Romney was for comprehensive reform packages for the entire Middle East. Romney likes what the president did in Libya (at first), in Syria, in Egypt, and what the president is doing with his flying killer robots in a dozen places. In fact, the president drew clearer foreign-policy differences between himself and Beau Biden's father than Romney did between himself in the president. The most spectacular reversal came on Afghanistan, when Romney appeared to commit himself to the same 2014 withdrawal date over which he has been belaboring the president in practically every speech since he left for Iowa a year ago.
It was purely surreal, and it was not made any less so by the fact that Romney was clearly uncomfortable with his new moderate foreign-policy programming. (That was plain early on, when he completely took a pass on the opening question, which concerned the events in Benghazi.) Romney was sweating and stumbling through enough passages to reinforce the fact that he and his running mate, the zombie-eyed granny-starver from Wisconsin, are going to have to leave anything that happens overseas to their coterie of advisers - if, of course, any of them are still speaking to Romney after he sold them out so egregiously just now.
That is what history always has told us about the career of Willard Romney: sooner or later, he will sell your ass out to the highest bidder and walk away whistling in the general direction of anything to which he feels entitled. In this case, that would be the leadership of the Free World.
Otherwise, it was a dispiriting evening on a great many levels. Clearly, the president had a superior command of the issues under discussion. He finally and thoroughly eviscerated the idiotic talking point about how the Navy is smaller than it's been since 1917. (You may have noticed that rejoinder because it was when the phrase "horses and bayonets" started trending.) He easily parried the hoariest Romney attack of all - that the president embarked on "an apology tour" upon taking office - by shooting back that he'd gone to Israel "without bringing any fundraisers," and talking about his visit to the Holocaust Memorial at Yad Vashem. He forcefully defended all the policies he'd put in place that Romney, on this evening at least, so enthusiastically supported. He made clear from his words and his manner that he has had to make decisions over the past four years that he never dreamed he'd have to make when he was running in 2008 and John McCain was ripping him for his lack of experience, and that those decisions have marked him, whether he wins this election or not, for the rest of his life. On the substance of what came under discussion on Monday night, this was no contest at all. It was an obvious and preposterous mismatch.
My god, Romney actually said that America doesn't install dictators, ignoring the fact that we've had these problems with Iran for 60 years precisely because we overthrew an elected president and installed a friendly dictator whose rule was so bloodthirsty that religious fanatics ran him out, imprisoned our embassy officials, and gave Ben Affleck a chance 30 years later to direct a cool movie. Do we honestly have to count them all off? Somoza? Rios Montt? Pinochet? And, yes, Saddam Hussein. Romney sounded like he was taking history at one of those Jesus-on-a-dinosaur middle schools that "Bobby" Jindal has opened in Louisiana. And yet, this abysmal ignorance may not come to matter a damn.
A discussion of foreign policy that did not mention climate change. (Four debates and nary a mention. Somebody else is going to have to tell the polar bears.) A discussion of foreign policy that mentioned teacher's unions exactly as many times - once - as it mentioned the Palestinians, and I am not making that statistic up. A discussion of foreign policy that did not mention hunger, or thirst, or epidemic disease, but spent better than ten minutes on The Fking Deficit. (Here Romney cited in defense of his position that noted political economist, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.) A discussion of foreign policy that was all about threats, real and imagined, and wars, real or speculative, and weapons, and how many of them we should build in order to feel safe in this dangerous world. (Romney actually argued that we should go back to the "two-war" strategy that we followed throughout the Cold War. Against whom in god's name does he think we'll be fighting the second war?)
The rough consensus on foreign policy, to which Willard Romney spent most of the evening appealing, is a truncated, dismal thing, a grim march through a universe of bad options and worse choices. "Harvey Cox said once that not to decide is to decide," former senator Bob Graham said after it was over. "The only option not worth taking is the one where we do nothing."
Unfortunately for Graham's theory, there is no "we" in these questions. There was no "we" in the final presidential debate this year. In no area have we as a self-governing nation so abandoned our obligations as we have on foreign policy. In no area are we so intellectually subservient to expertise, and to the Great Man Theory of how things should be run. In no area are we so clearly governed, rather than governing ourselves. The president, at least, occasionally seems to be aware not only that this is true, but also that it puts the whole experiment of self-government in mortal peril, just as the Founders knew it would when they lodged the war powers in the Congress, which has spent the last 225 years giving them back, in one way or another, to the Executive, which is presided over, always, by One Great Man. He at least seems self-aware enough to appear troubled by the power he nonetheless wields.
There is no nation in its right mind that would put its foreign policy in the hands of the Willard Romney who showed up on stage here in Boca Raton on Monday night, particularly since he had so clearly abandoned everything else he believed on the subject for the purpose of fronting himself as a moderate in order to run out the clock over the next three weeks. He knew nothing and said less. But the debate will be scored as no better than a tie because, well, all the options are too miserable to contemplate. I think if Romney had called for drone strikes on the headquarters of the National Education Association, he might take 47 states. Especially if he couched the raid as a deficit-reduction scheme or an attempt at education "reform."

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Commander-in-Chief v. Dithering Bully |
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Tuesday, 23 October 2012 09:08 |
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Intro: "I thought the third and last presidential debate was a clear win for the President."
Portrait, Robert Reich, 08/16/09. (photo: Perian Flaherty)

Commander-in-Chief v. Dithering Bully
By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Blog
23 October 12
thought the third and last presidential debate was a clear win for the President. He displayed the authority of the nation's Commander-in-Chief - calm, dignified, and confident. He was assertive without being shrill, clear without being condescending. He explained to a clueless Mitt Romney the way the world actually works.
Romney seemed out of his depth. His arguments were more a series of bromides than positions - "we have to make sure arms don't get into the wrong hands," "we want a peaceful planet," "we need to stand by our principles," "we need strong allies," "we need a comprehensive strategy to move the world away from terrorism," and other banalities.
This has been Romney's problem all along, of course, but in the first debate he managed to disguise his vacuousness with a surprisingly combative, well-rehearsed performance. By the second debate, the disguise was wearing thin.
In tonight's debate, Romney seemed to wither - and wander. He often had difficulty distinguishing his approach from the President's, except to say, repeatedly, "America needs strong leadership."
On the few occasions when Romney managed to criticize the President, he called for a more assertive foreign policy - but he never specified exactly what that assertiveness would entail. He wanted "tougher economic sanctions on Iran," for example, or "stronger support for Israel" - the details of which were never revealed.
Obama's most targeted criticism of Romney, on the other hand, went to Romney's core weakness - that Romney's positions have been inconsistent, superficial, and often wrong: "Every time you've offered an opinion," said Obama, "you've been wrong."
Nonetheless, I kept wishing Obama would take more credit for one of the most successful foreign policies of any administration in decades: not only finding and killing Osama bin Laden but also ridding the world of Libya's Gaddafi without getting drawn into a war, imposing extraordinary economic hardship on Iran, isolating Syria, and navigating the treacherous waters of Arab Spring.
Obama pointed to these achievements, but I thought he could have knitted them together into an overall approach to world affairs that has been in sharp contrast to the swaggering, bombastic foreign policies of his predecessor.
Like George W. Bush, Mitt Romney has a pronounced tendency to rush to judgment - to assert America's military power too quickly, and to assume that we'll be viewed as weak if we use diplomacy and seek the cooperation of other nations (including Russia and China) before making our moves.
President Obama won tonight's debate not only because he knows more about foreign policy than does Mitt Romney, but because Obama understands how to wield the soft as well as the hard power of America. He came off as more subtle and convincing than Romney - more authoritative - because, in reality, he is.
Although tonight's topic was foreign policy, I hope Americans understand it was also about every other major challenge we face. Mitt Romney is not only a cold warrior; he's also a class warrior. And the two are closely related. Romney tries to disguise both within an amenable demeanor. But in both capacities, he's a bully.

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