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The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=21784"><span class="small">Nate Silver, The New York Times</span></a>   
Saturday, 03 November 2012 09:18

Silver writes: "To argue that Mr. Romney is ahead, or that the election is a 'tossup,' requires that you disbelieve the polls, or that you engage in some complicated interpretation of them. The FiveThirtyEight model represents a complicated analysis of the polls, but simplicity is on its side, in this case."

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama wave to the audience during the first presidential debate at the University of Denver in Denver. (photo: AP)
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama wave to the audience during the first presidential debate at the University of Denver in Denver. (photo: AP)


The Simple Case for Saying Obama Is the Favorite

By Nate Silver, The New York Times

03 November 12

 

f you are following some of the same people that I do on Twitter, you may have noticed some pushback about our contention that Barack Obama is a favorite (and certainly not a lock) to be re-elected. I haven't come across too many analyses suggesting that Mitt Romney is the favorite. (There are exceptions.) But there are plenty of people who say that the race is a "tossup."

What I find confounding about this is that the argument we're making is exceedingly simple. Here it is:

Obama's ahead in Ohio.

A somewhat-more-complicated version:

Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.

The argument that Mr. Obama isn't the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama.

So you have to make some case for why the polls shouldn't be taken at face value.

Some argue that the polls are systematically biased against Republicans. This might qualify as a simple argument had it been true on a consistent basis historically, but it hasn't been: instead, there have been some years when the polls overestimated how well the Democrat would do, and about as many where the same was true for the Republican. I'm sympathetic to the notion that the polls could be biased, statistically speaking, meaning that they will all miss in the same direction. The FiveThirtyEight forecast explicitly accounts for the possibility that the polls are biased toward Mr. Obama - but it also accounts for the chance that the polls could be systematically biased against him.

Others argue that undecided voters tend to break against the incumbent, in this case Mr. Obama. But this has also not really been true in recent elections. In some states, also, Mr. Obama is at 50 percent of the vote in the polling average, or close to it, meaning that he wouldn't need very many undecided voters to win.

A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday.

This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put.

In the table below, I've listed the polling averages in the most competitive states, and in the national polls, across several different periods.

First are all polls from June 1, the approximate start of the general-election campaign, until the start of the party conventions.

Next are the polls between the conventions and the first debate in Denver in early October.

Finally are the polls since that first debate in Denver. It's been roughly 30 days since then. If Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls, then this should imply that his polls are continuing to get better: that they were a little better this week than last week, and a bit better last week than the week before. So these polls are further broken down into three different periods of about 10 days each, based on when the poll was conducted.

What type of polling average is this, by the way? About the simplest possible one: I've just averaged together all the polls of likely voters in the FiveThirtyEight database, applying no other weighting or "secret sauce."

If you evaluate the polls in this way, there is not much evidence of "momentum" toward Mr. Romney. Instead, the case that the polls have moved slightly toward Mr. Obama is stronger.

In 9 of the 11 battleground states, Mr. Obama's polls have been better over the past 10 days than they were immediately after the Denver debate. The same is true for the national polls, whether or not tracking polls (which otherwise dominate the average) are included.

In the swing states, in fact, Mr. Obama's polls now look very close to where they were before the conventions and the debates. Mr. Obama led by an average of 2.3 percentage points in Ohio in all likely voter polls conducted between June 1 and the debates; he's led by an average of 2.4 points in Ohio polls conducted over the past 10 days. He trailed by an average of 0.5 percentage points in Florida before the conventions; he's trailed by an average of 0.2 percentage point in the most recent Florida polls.

Mr. Obama's polls are worse than they were in the period in between the conventions and the debates. But they're better than they were immediately after Denver; he's gained back one percentage point, or perhaps a point-and-a-half, of what he lost.

What about the national polls? Aren't those still worse for Mr. Obama than they were before the conventions?

Actually, that isn't so clear. The one "trick" I've played is to look only at polls of likely voters. Mr. Obama's national polls looked superficially better before the conventions because many of them were polls of registered voters instead, which do tend to show more favorable results for Democrats. (You're welcome to say that polls of registered voters have a Democratic bias.) We alerted you in August to the prospect that there was a "gap" between the state polls and the national polls, which was concealed by the fact that many of the national polls at that time were reporting registered-voter results, while most of the state polls were using likely voter numbers all along. However, our method adjusted for the tendency of registered-voter polls to be biased toward Democrats by shifting them in Mr. Romney's direction. Some of what is perceived as "momentum" toward Mr. Romney is in fact a fairly predictable consequence of the national polls having flipped over to applying likely voter screens at various points between August and October.

But now we're getting into all these complications! All these details!

I am aware - and you should be too - of the possibility that adding complexity to a model can make it worse. The technical term for this is "overfitting": that by adding different layers to a model, you may make it too rigid, molding it such that it perfectly "predicts" the past, but is incompetent at forecasting the future. I think there is a place for complexity - the universe is a complicated thing - but it needs to be applied with the knowledge that our ability to understand it is constrained by our human shortcomings.

This critique fails, however, since the simplest analysis of the polls would argue that Mr. Obama is winning. He's been ahead in the vast majority of polls in Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and all the other states where the Democrat normally wins. These states add up to more than 270 electoral votes. It isn't complicated. To argue that Mr. Romney is ahead, or that the election is a "tossup," requires that you disbelieve the polls, or that you engage in some complicated interpretation of them. The FiveThirtyEight model represents a complicated analysis of the polls, but simplicity is on its side, in this case.

Thursday's Polls

The polls published on Thursday ought not to have done much to change your view of the race. The national polls showed little overall trend toward either Mr. Obama or Mr. Romney, but they also had Mr. Obama just slightly ahead, on average, in contrast to what we were seeing immediately after Denver.

The battleground state polls on Thursday were something of a mixed lot, in terms of results and quality. The most attractive number for Mr. Romney is the poll of Ohio by Wenzel Strategies, which had him three points ahead there. However, the polls from this particular firm have been four or five points Republican-leaning relative to the consensus, which the FiveThirtyEight model adjusts for.

Or just keep it simple and average the polls together, warts and all. You will find that Mr. Obama is the Electoral College favorite.

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FOCUS | Hurricane Sandy and the Myth of Big Government Print
Friday, 02 November 2012 13:30

Taibbi writes: "This massive hurricane is apparently turning into a boon for Barack Obama on a number of fronts."

Matt Taibbi at Skylight Studio in New York, 10/27/10. (photo: Neilson Barnard/Getty Images)
Matt Taibbi at Skylight Studio in New York, 10/27/10. (photo: Neilson Barnard/Getty Images)


Hurricane Sandy and the Myth of Big Government

By Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone

02 November 12

 

uite a shock the other day to look out my window in Jersey City, and see the Hudson River rushing over what used to be the street in front of my building. For nearly three days my dog and I played Robinson Crusoe and Friday, sleepily watching from our little apartment-island while we waited for hot water, cell service, the internet, even elevators to come back on line.

When I finally got back on the internet and was able to read the news again, I saw that Hurricane Sandy, in addition to being the rare storm to live up to its televised hype, had turned into the last-minute curveball plot twist that always seems to pop up in presidential races.

Some of those twists we hear about – like the sudden appearance of records from George W. Bush's 1976 drunk driving arrest in Maine – while others, like Dick Nixon's apparent secret negotiations with the Vietnamese in 1968, or the more-likely-mythical October Surprise deal involving Reagan and the Iran hostages in 1980, remain secrets until later on.

But this massive hurricane is apparently turning into a boon for Barack Obama on a number of fronts. One, it's allowed him to be seen all over television taking charge and acting presidential, and has even allowed him to brandish bipartisan credentials through the curiously intense bromance that he has developed this week with our own New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (a Romney supporter who, somewhat mysteriously, has gone out of his way to praise the president this week).

On a deeper level, though, the hurricane has seemingly made a powerful argument on Obama's behalf about the role of government in general. The media is casting this as a stark and simple dichotomy. Romney, the rhetoric goes, is on record as having favored cuts to disaster relief agencies like FEMA ("We cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids," he said in a primary debate last year), while his running mate, Paul Ryan, has been even more hostile to FEMA ("When disaster-relief decisions are not made judiciously, limited resources are diverted away from communities that are truly in need," he said just last March).

Obama, meanwhile, has reportedly embraced FEMA in the past, and is certainly doing so now, with his comments this past week seeming to argue in favor even of an increase in FEMA spending, noting the frequency of "these kinds of storms."

The storm is also purportedly casting in a kinder light Obama's general attitude toward government, until now often described as an electoral weakness. Pre-Sandy, pundits usually raked the president over the coals for openly embracing the role of government in society during a time when anti-government sentiment is at an all-time high. In the first debate, for instance, his answer to a question about his view of the role of government was considered a dud:

I also believe that government has the capacity — the federal government has the capacity to help open up opportunity and create ladders of opportunity and to create frameworks where the American people can succeed.

It's this kind of language that's allowed opponents of Obama to cast him as the "redistributionist-in-Chief": a man who openly believes that government can help provide "ladders of opportunity." That language is particularly annoying to pure free-market ideologues, who have often claimed the "ladders of opportunity" phrase for themselves, but only in the context of their being provided by the private sector.

Anyway, enter Hurricane Sandy. Suddenly, it seems that most of the mainstream press – as if speaking through one voice – has finally decided that the storm has settled the big-government-versus-small-government argument, with Obama coming out the clear winner. There were a number of online columns like the one by USA Today's Amanda Marcotte, who wrote that "Sandy Shows Why Romney's Wrong on FEMA," or by Catherine Poe at the Washington Times, who pitched in with "FEMA to the Rescue: Why Obama is Right and Romney Was Wrong."

But more than a few outlets used the storm to make an even bigger case for government in general. Up north, for instance, the Globe and Mail decreed that "Superstorm Bolsters Obama's Big-Government Argument". But the more striking piece was the uncharacteristically brazen editorial in the New York Times, titled "A Big Storm Requires Big Government," in which the Times harshly criticized George Bush's cavalier attitude toward disaster relief in the years leading up to Katrina, and argued generally for the necessity of a broadly strong government.

The Times headline was instantly mocked by both the Heritage Foundation, who called it "a shameless attempt to politicize Hurricane Sandy," and the Wall Street Journal ("A Big Storm Requires Big Bird"), which used the editorial as an opportunity to wittily attack the Grey Lady:

Some people prepare for natural disasters by stocking up on food, water and batteries. At the New York Times, they stockpile tendentious ideological arguments.

The editorialists at the Wall Street Journal have a lot of balls themselves calling out anyone else for mass-producing tendentious ideology, but that's another argument for another day. The point is that the storm has become a flash-point for a new media meme: Obama is for big government (which is suddenly a good thing), Romney is for small government (and wants to take rafts and blankets away from flood victims), and goodness gracious, aren't we lucky that we got to see such a clear, real-world demonstration of the important philosophical differences between these two candidates in the week before the election.

All year, the press has been banging a similar drum, i.e. that Mitt Romney and his budget-slashing sidekick Paul Ryan are for small government, while the closet socialist Barack Obama and his old-school New Dealer VP Joe Biden are the obvious big-government candidates.

The only problem with this new line of rhetoric is that it isn't really true. The almost certain reality is that we'll end up with a big (and perhaps even a rapidly-expanding) government no matter who gets elected. People seem to forget that this time four years ago, George W. Bush was winding down one of the most activist, expensive, intrusive presidencies in history, an eight-year period that saw a massive expansion in the size of the federal government. Almost exactly four years ago, this is what the conservative Washington Times wrote about the outgoing president:

George W. Bush rode into Washington almost eight years ago astride the horse of smaller government. He will leave it this winter having overseen the biggest federal budget expansion since Franklin Delano Roosevelt seven decades ago.

Bush, it is true, consistently expanded the size of the federal bureaucracies almost across the board during his eight years in office, greatly increasing the size of government just in terms of sheer numbers and volume of spending, but that wasn't all he did.

People forget that he also took a major qualitative step forward in expanding the role of government, when in 2008 his Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson, teamed up with then-Fed official and Paulson's future counterpart in the Obama administration, Tim Geithner, to design a series of financial bailouts and state-aided mergers. The bailout program that began under Bush cost trillions of dollars and left the state hopelessly and irrevocably involved in the insurance, banking and auto industries, among other things.

But within a few years, that was forgotten. Forget about the myth that the Republican Party is sincerely interested in reducing the size of government: the real myth is that the American people are in favor of reducing the size of government. And that myth was alive and well again by the summer of 2010, in the runup to midterm elections. Back then, Slate columnist Anne Applebaum described the national self-deception this way:

Americans on both the left and the right have, for the last decade, consistently voted for high-spending members of Congress and consistently supported ever-higher levels of government intervention and regulation at all levels of public life. As a result, the federal government expanded under George W. Bush's administration at a rate that was, at least until President Barack Obama came along, totally unprecedented in U.S. history.

In the abstract, most Americans want a smaller and less intrusive government. In reality, what Americans really want is a government that spends less money on other people.

Hurricane Sandy is a perfect, microcosmic example of America's attitude toward government. We have millions of people who, most of the year, are ready to bash anyone who accepts government aid as a parasitic welfare queen, but the instant the water level rises a few feet too high in their own neighborhoods, those same folks transform into little Roosevelts, full of plaudits for the benefits of a strong state.

The truth is, nobody, be he rich or poor, wants his government services cut. Drive up and down route 128 outside Boston, you'll see a lot of affluent white people waving Romney signs, complaining about entitlement spending. But about four thousand percent of those same people working along the high-tech ring there are totally dependent on the Pentagon contracts that keep doors open at companies like Raytheon and General Dynamics.

Here in the tri-state area, and especially in the lower Manhattan region I'm staring at out my window right now, you'll get much of the same – lots of whining now about deficit spending and the parasitical 47%, but also conspicuous silence a few years ago, when in one fell swoop, taxpayers had to spend about twice the amount of the annual federal budget just to save bonus seasons on Wall Street for the few thousand of our local assholes who nearly blew up the world economy.

And a lot of those same parasite-bashing, Randian pure-market ideologues were in full pucker mode for all of this past summer, while they waited in frank desperation for the Fed to announce a third Quantitative Easing program – in which the Fed will henceforth inject $85 billion of raw, uncut welfare into the financial services industry's bloodstream every month.

Programs like QE are always defended as being necessary to stimulate the economy in general, and who knows, maybe they are – but it's conspicuous that a crowd of people who normally hate "government spending" are suddenly overflowing with praise for the Fed's wisdom and logical explanations for why this massive pseudo-state intervention is necessary.

The point is, we will end up with a big government no matter who wins next week's election, because neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama is supported by a coalition that has any interest in tightening its own belt. The only reason we're having this phony big-versus-small argument is because of yet another longstanding media deception, i.e. that the only people who actually receive government aid are the poor and the elderly and other such traditional "welfare"-seekers. Thus a politician who is in favor of cutting services to that particular crowd, like Mitt Romney, is inevitably described as favoring "small government," no matter what his spending plans are for everybody else.

But everyone lives off the government teat to some degree – even (one might even say especially) the very rich who have been the core supporters of both the Bush presidency and Romney's campaign. Many are industrial leaders who would revolt tomorrow if their giant free R&D program known as the federal military budget were to be scaled back even a few percentage points. Mitt's buddies on Wall Street would cry without their bailouts and dozens of lucrative little-known subsidies (like the preposterous ability of certain banks to act as middlemen in transactions when the government lends money to itself).

And if it's not outright bailouts or guarantees keeping the rich rich, it's selective regulation and carefully-carved-out protections from competition – like the bans on drug re-importation or pharmaceutical price negotiation for Medicare that are keeping the drug companies far richer than they would be, in the pure free-market paradise their CEOs probably espouse at dinner parties.

The evolution of this whole antigovernment movement has been fascinating to watch. People who grew up in public schools, run straight to the embassy the instant they get a runny nose overseas, stuff burgers down their throats without worrying about E. Coli and sleep happily in planes they know have been inspected by the FAA (I regularly risked my life in Aeroflot liners for a decade and know the difference), can with straight faces make the argument that having to pay any taxes at all is tyranny. It's almost as if people feel the need to announce that they don't need any help with anything, ever – not even keeping bridges safe or drinking water clean.

It's this weird national paranoia about being seen as needy, or labeled a parasite who needs government aid, that leads to lunacies like the idea that having a strong disaster-relief agency qualifies as a "big government" concept, when in fact it's just sensible. If everyone could just admit that government is a fact of life, we could probably do a much better job of fixing it and managing its costs. Instead, we have to play this silly game where millions of us pretend we're above it all, that we don't walk on regularly-cleaned streets or fly in protected skies. It shouldn't take a once-in-a-generation hurricane for Americans to admit they need the government occasionally, but that's apparently where we are.

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FOCUS | UAW Files Charges Against Romney for Auto Bail-Out Profiteering Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=13834"><span class="small">Greg Palast, GregPalast.com</span></a>   
Friday, 02 November 2012 11:40

Palast writes: "For Mitt Romney, it's one scary Halloween. The Presidential candidate has just learned that tomorrow afternoon he will charged."

Mitt Romney addresses supporters during a campaign rally, 04/24/12. (photo: Getty Images)
Mitt Romney addresses supporters during a campaign rally, 04/24/12. (photo: Getty Images)


UAW Files Charges Against Romney for Auto Bail-Out Profiteering

By Greg Palast, GregPalast.com

02 November 12

 

Broke ethics law hiding millions, say good government groups

or Mitt Romney, it's one scary Halloween. The Presidential candidate has just learned that tomorrow afternoon he will charged with violating the federal Ethics in Government law by improperly concealing his multi-million dollar windfall from the auto industry bail-out.

At a press conference in Toledo, Bob King, President of the United Automobile Workers, will announce that his union and Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) have filed a formal complaint with the US Office of Government Ethics in Washington stating that Gov. Romney improperly hid a profit of $15.3 million to $115.0 million in Ann Romney's so-called "blind" trust.

The union chief says, "The American people have a right to know about Gov. Romney’s potential conflicts of interest, such as the profits his family made from the auto rescue,” “It’s time for Gov. Romney to disclose or divest.”

“While Romney was opposing the rescue of one of the nation’s most important manufacturing sectors, he was building his fortunes with his Delphi investor group, making his fortunes off the misfortunes of others,” King added.

The Romneys' gigantic windfall was hidden inside an offshore corporation inside a Limited Partnership inside a trust which both concealed the gain and reduces taxes on it.

The Romneys' windfall was originally exposed in Nation Magazine, Mitt Romney's Bail-out Bonanza after a worldwide investigation by our crew at The Guardian, the Nation Institute and the Palast Investigative Fund. [Ed. - The full story of Romney and his "vulture fund" partners is in Palast's New York Times bestseller, Billionaires & Ballot Bandits.]

According to ethics law expert Dr. Craig Holman of Public Citizen, who advised on the complaint, Ann Romney does not have a federally-approved blind trust. An approved "blind" trust may not be used to hide a major investment which could be affected by Romney if he were to be elected President. Other groups joining the UAW and CREW include Public Citizen, the Service Employees International Union, Public Campaign, People for the American Way and The Social Equity Group.

President Obama's approved trust, for example, contains only highly-diversified mutual funds on which Presidential action can have little effect. By contrast, the auto bail-out provided a windfall of over 4,000% on one single Romney investment.

In 2009, Ann Romney partnered with her husband's key donor, billionaire Paul Singer, who secretly bought a controlling interest in Delphi Auto, the former GM auto parts division. Singer's hedge fund, Elliott Management, threatened to cut off GM's supply of steering columns unless GM and the government's TARP auto bail-out fund provided Delphi with huge payments. While the US treasury complained this was "extortion," the hedge funds received, ultimately, $12.9 billion in taxpayer subsidies.

As a result, the shares Singer and Romney bought for just 67 cents are today worth over $30, a 4,000% gain. Singer's hedge fund made a profit of $1.27 billion and the Romney's tens of millions.

The UAW complaint calls for Romney to reveal exactly how much he made off Delphi - and continues to make. The Singer syndicate, once in control of Delphi, eliminated every single UAW job - 25,000 - and moved almost all auto parts production to Mexico and China where Delphi now employs 25,000 auto parts workers.

Forensic Economist Greg Palast's investigative reports can be seen on BBC Television. His latest bestseller, Billionaires & Ballot Bandits: How to Steal an Election in 9 Easy Steps contains a comic book by Ted Rall and chapters by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. www.BallotBandits.org

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Mitt Hits the Panic Button Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=22082"><span class="small">Alex Seitz-Wald, Salon</span></a>   
Friday, 02 November 2012 09:29

Intro: "Romney's campaign says he's winning, but a series of wildly dishonest ads suggest he's growing desperate."

Obama is ahead in the polls. (photo: AP)
Obama is ahead in the polls. (photo: AP)


Mitt Hits the Panic Button

By Alex Seitz-Wald, Salon

02 November 12

 

Romney's campaign says he's winning, but a series of wildly dishonest ads suggest he's growing desperate

ith just six days before Election Day it's time to ask: Who's going to win? If you ask the Romney campaign, they've got this thing in the bag. "The race comes down to independents. We lead among independents," Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said on a conference call with reporters on the state of the race this morning. "The firewall that I think [the Obama campaign] talked about was Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio. Right now their firewall is burning," added Rich Beeson, Romney's political director. Meanwhile, Karl Rove predicts Romney will sail to victory with at least 279 electoral votes ("probably more"); the "unskewed" polls show Romney winning in a massive landslide with 321 electoral votes to Obama's 217; and Breitbart bloggers say "Mitt Romney is now running away with this election." Indeed, national polls slightly favor Romney.

Of course, the state polls say something else, and state polls are what really count. Obama is ahead, if marginally, in almost every swing state. This means that Obama can afford to lose in a few states he's currently winning, while Romney has to win every single state he's currently winning plus steal a bunch of states from Obama, especially Ohio, where he's never fared well. Some recent polls even show Obama leading Virginia and Florida, both of which Romney needs. These numbers have made Nate Silver confident enough to bet $1,000 that Obama wins (his model gives Obama a 79 percent chance of victory at the moment).

So who's right? Since we're now in a post-Nate Silver world, where pundits' gut instincts are more important than math, let's just throw his numbers out the window and look only at what the Romney campaign has been up to in the critical week before the election. Maybe we'll find some clues to what they really think about Mitt's chances.

Today, we learn about a new ad the campaign released Tuesday - but did not announce to the press - that ties Barack Obama to Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez. "Who supports Barack Obama?" a narrator asks in Spanish before video clips play of Chavez and Castro's daughter praising Obama.

The campaign also doubled down this week on its totally dishonest TV ad on the auto bailout with an even phonier radio ad, which it also did not announce to reporters. The ad suggests that Jeep, a division of Chrysler, which was bailed out by the federal government, is moving production and jobs to China. Jeep is doing no such thing and is actually expanding jobs in Ohio. The spot sort of backfired when the auto execs slammed Romney for lying about their companies, leading to less-than-flattering headlines in Ohio like this one from yesterday: "Obama devotes day to storm response; furor erupts over Romney auto ads."

On top of that, the campaign released a third ad - again, without alerting the press - reviving the entirely false and vaguely race-baiting myth that Obama is gutting the work requirement in welfare.

Does deploying these ads at the last minute really seem like a move from a campaign that feels confident it's going to win? These are some of the ugliest and most dishonest attacks of an unusually ugly and dishonest campaign. They're the kind of ads you expect from a secretive outside group, not the campaign itself. They're the kind of ads a campaign keeps in a glass case labeled, "Break in case of emergency." They feel desperate.

Now take a look at where Romney is campaigning in the waning days of the campaign. There's no bigger weapon in the campaign's arsenal than the candidate himself, so where it sends him is a good sign of where its priorities are. The Romney campaign has been insisting that it's in such a strong position that it's expanding the map by making a play for mostly safe blue states like Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Michigan and even New Mexico (where Obama won by 15 points in 2008). And indeed, both campaigns or the super PACs supporting them are now up with ads in these states.

But Romney isn't going anywhere near those states. He's doing three events in Virginia today, which he should have put away weeks ago so he could concentrate on other states. Tomorrow he heads to Wisconsin, where's he's still the deep underdog, and after that Ohio, which he absolutely needs to win, but is still down. Then it's to Colorado, where he may win but Obama has been making a mini comeback. Then he's off to Iowa and New Hampshire, where he's down, but could really stand to win.

More likely, the "expand the map" strategy is about his campaign and their allies having more money than they need in the real swing states and a desire to "keep the ‘momentum' storyline going," as Amy Walter notes, even if it's no longer true.

As Steve Kornacki pointed out this morning, the entire "the polls are wrong" argument is based on a faulty reading about the role independent voters play in this election. Romney keeps winning among independents but losing overall in polls because lots of conservatives no longer self-identify as Republicans, but effectively vote that way.

And at least in private, Republican leaders seem to be finally acknowledging the reality - well, at least part of the reality. Politico's Mike Allen reported this morning that "top Republicans are already hinting that if Romney loses, his people will blame the storm for stalling his momentum." Romney's momentum had clearly stalled before Hurricane Sandy struck, and there was really only a brief moment since Romney emerged as the GOP nominee in April that he looked like he was winning. But hey, whatever helps Republicans sleep until Election Day.

Alex Seitz-Wald is Salon's political reporter. Email him at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it , and follow him on Twitter @aseitzwald.

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Obama Is the Wiser Path Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=63"><span class="small">Marc Ash, Reader Supported News</span></a>   
Thursday, 01 November 2012 13:56

Ash writes: "It is difficult to know if Mitt Romney's bald face lying is intended to convince voters or himself, or is simply symptomatic of some pathological disorder."

President Barack Obama attends the memorial service in Tucson, Arizona for victims of the shooting there. 01/12/11. (photo: Getty Images)
President Barack Obama attends the memorial service in Tucson, Arizona for victims of the shooting there. 01/12/11. (photo: Getty Images)


Obama Is the Wiser Path

By Marc Ash, Reader Supported News

01 November 12

Reader Supported News | Perspective

 

hat died along with Jack Kennedy on November 22, 1963, was the notion that a popularly-elected leader could effect change from the Oval Office. The remains of that day were an understanding that attempting to challenge the power structure could have consequences even for the president.

Barack Obama brings deep flaws to his perspective of the presidency. The administration's ongoing campaign of extra-judicial assassination, a cold shoulder to the systemic oppression of civil liberties, a Justice Department that stands blind and mute as corporate corruption devours the soul of the nation, an indifference to environmental suicide that borders on contempt. It's all there. Yet, somehow there is a crucial glimmer of understanding in him that will not allow hope to be extinguished.

It is difficult to know if Mitt Romney's bald-face lying is intended to convince voters or himself, or is simply symptomatic of some pathological disorder. When he says that he wants to be president without releasing his tax returns or information about his Cayman Islands bank accounts, what he is really saying is that he views the Oval Office as an acquisition, a commodity to be bought and sold to the highest bidder - at a profit of course.

What we learned in the Occupy encampments is that change does not come from the top, it comes from the bottom. The struggle to reestablish American democracy has only just begun. It's not likely that a leader of the American Pro-Democracy Movement will occupy the Oval Office any time soon. But Obama is by orders of magnitude more likely to recognize and respect change when confronted with it than Romney would ever be.

He is not the progressive lion we dreamed he would be, but he still stands. We must construct a strategy for grass-roots change around the better man. Barack Obama is clearly that.



Marc Ash was formerly the founder and Executive Director of Truthout, and is now founder and Editor of Reader Supported News.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

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