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Republican Thugs in the House Hope to Derail Obama's Tax-Hike Bill |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=5903"><span class="small">Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast</span></a>
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Tuesday, 04 December 2012 15:32 |
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Tomasky writes: "Friends, you're hopelessly behind the times. The Republicans won't allow measures to pass with just any 218 votes. It has to be mostly Republicans."
Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner takes questions during a news conference November 30, 2012 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. (photo: Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Republican Thugs in the House Hope to Derail Obama's Tax-Hike Bill
By Michael Tomasky, The Daily Beast
04 December 12
Think Obama's tax-hike bill can to pass the lower chamber of Congress with a majority of votes? Think again. Michael Tomasky on how the GOP plans to protect its wealthy donors.
s you ponder whether the Obama tax hike can pass the House, I bet you think something like, "All he needs is a few Republicans." Right? I wouldn't blame you for thinking it. Obama himself said last week: "If we can just get a few House Republicans on board, we can pass the bill in the House, it will land on my desk, and I am ready - I have got a bunch of pens ready - to sign this bill." That's how it works, right - 218 votes? Friends, you're hopelessly behind the times. The Republicans won't allow measures to pass with just any 218 votes. It has to be mostly Republicans. Welcome to the little-discussed but possibly pivotal concept of the "majority of the majority."
What does this mean? Pretty much just what it says: For Speaker John Boehner to bring any measure to the House floor, he has to see that a majority of the majority - that is, a majority of his GOP caucus - will support it. You might have in theory a bill that could pass with the support of 109 Democrats and 109 Republicans to reach the needed 218. You couldn't ask for more bipartisanship than that. But 109 is not a majority of 241, so if Boehner and his whips were counting noses accurately in the run-up, this perfectly balanced measure would never see the light of day for a vote.
Sounds like madness? Yes, it does, and it is. But surely this is something, you say, that goes back a ways, and something both sides have done. Well, not really. It goes back, says congressional scholar Norman Ornstein, only to Denny Hastert, the GOP speaker during the Bush years who was the first to use the phrase. "It was a Hastert original," Ornstein explained to me Monday. "In earlier eras, it would never have worked - too much heterogeneity in caucuses, to start. Hastert was a different Speaker, in another sense, seeing himself as more a field general in the president's army than as first and foremost leader of the independent House, but to him that meant creating a majority party machine. More than anything, it formed the parliamentary party mindset."
Sarah Binder, the congressional scholar at Brookings, notes that in fairness, the pseudo-parliamentary mindset began to develop in the 1970s and 1980s. "I think its parliamentary roots actually stem from liberal Democrats' effort to challenge the power of conservative committee chairs who dominated the House agenda for a good portion of the 20th century," Binder says. The Democrats started using the powerful House Rules Committee more aggressively to control the flow of what could and could not get to the floor.
So the Democrats certainly managed the action, but all we have to do is look at history and see that the Democrats didn't follow this majority of the majority nonsense. Exhibit A: NAFTA. It passed with a minority of the Democratic majority but an overwhelming majority of Republicans.
Nope - it was Republicans who instituted this noxious rule, during the Bush era, probably at Karl Rove's behest, to ram through every wedge issue they could. Just another manifestation of turning legislating into warfare by other means and making compromise impossible. In spirit, it's like a House version of the filibuster. A minority of the body gets to block the potential will of a majority, and on a purely and unashamedly partisan basis.
So what does it have to do with the fiscal cliff? It means that you can forget the idea of 20 or so non-wild-eyed Republicans joining the Democrats in passing the higher tax rates. As Republican Tom Cole said last week - and Cole, remember, is one of the reasonable ones here, one of the few GOPers who has declared that he'd vote with the Democrats on such a measure: "You're not going to come up here and be able to put together a deal with 170 Democrats and 40 Republicans - that's just not in the cards." The number, for the record, would have to be at least 26 Republicans in December. If they wait until the next session starts in January, the required number would go down to 18, since the GOP lost eight seats in the election.
But all that is academic because under GOP rules - and this by the way is an unwritten rule; no American political party could ever get away with putting such a thing in print and making it official - the tax-hike proposal would need to have the support of the majority of the House Republican caucus even to reach the floor. It's blatantly undemocratic, and not enough people know that this is how the Republican Party operates, and I suspect a lot of them wouldn't even believe it if you told them. It doesn't help matters when even the president misrepresents the actual facts when he's out on the stump.
There's one possible way out of this, a wrinkle reported on Monday by ABC News. It seems that some Republicans are now talking about a scenario whereby they would allow a bill to come to the floor - the bill the Senate already passed, keeping the Bush tax rates on all dollars earned except above $250,000, but raising the rates at that end - and simply vote "present," allowing it to pass on entirely Democratic votes.
I think that if they vote "present" on something 60-plus percent of the people support, they'll look like complete idiots to your average American. Voting "present" on the biggest fiscal vote in years, to keep Grover Norquist happy and their caucus united? Hey, if that's how they want to play it, fine by me. It'll be nice to see their foolishness outweigh their malevolence.

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The Behind-the-Scenes Battle That Could Subvert Obamacare |
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Tuesday, 04 December 2012 15:30 |
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Potter writes: "[The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business] have accepted hundreds of millions of dollars over the past two decades from the insurance industry in an effort to kill or weaken health reform initiatives designed to protect consumers, including those who work for small businesses."
Columnist Wendell Potter. (photo: Robin Holland)

The Behind-the-Scenes Battle That Could Subvert Obamacare
By Wendell Potter, The Center for Public Integrity
04 December 12
Complex state level battle over stop-loss coverage could eliminate crucial consumer protections
've written before about the tight relationships between health insurance companies and organizations that claim to represent the interests of small employers, specifically the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business.
Those two groups have accepted hundreds of millions of dollars over the past two decades from the insurance industry in an effort to kill or weaken health reform initiatives designed to protect consumers, including those who work for small businesses.
The Chamber was the insurers' organization of choice to derail Obamacare. During 2009 and 2010, America's Health Insurance Plans - the major industry trade group - funneled more than $100 million of policyholders' money to the Chamber's anti-reform advertising campaign.
A decade ago, the NFIB did much of the insurers' bidding. AHIP and a handful of big insurers bankrolled a front group called the Health Benefits Coalition to block a patients' bill of rights that enjoyed bipartisan Congressional support. NFIB's current president, Dan Danner - who was the group's chief lobbyist at the time - was the Health Benefits Coalition's lead spokesman.
More recently, the NFIB has been playing a similar role for yet another group that purports to represents small businesses, the Stop the HIT (health insurance tax) Coalition. Insurers are using that group as part of its campaign to get Congress to repeal an Obamacare provision that imposes a fee on some insurance policies. Revenue from the fee will help subsidize coverage for millions of low-income folks who are currently uninsured.
And now, insurers have turned once again to the Chamber, this time to wage a behind-the-scenes campaign aimed at state insurance commissioners. If they succeed, insurers will be able to sell a highly profitable insurance product to a highly targeted group of small employers - those with mostly young and healthy workers. By buying this product - stop-loss insurance - those small employers would be able to avoid using the planned state insurance exchanges to obtain coverage for their workers.
Here's why that's important. Because of the way the Affordable Care Act is written, by avoiding the exchanges those small businesses would be exempt from having to comply with many of the most important consumer protections in the health law.
It's complicated - so complicated that unless you are a reader of obscure insurance industry newsletters, you've probably never heard about this, even though it has the potential to cause the collapse of the exchanges and completely circumvent to intent of Congress. The intent of Congress was to make coverage more affordable and available to all of us, not just the young and healthy.
The key to this fight are those state insurance commissioners. Their organization, the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, just wrapped up its fall meeting in Washington, where consumer advocates were pitted against lobbyists for big insurers and their old friend, the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber has taken the lead in pressuring the NAIC to make it easy for insurers to sell stop-loss coverage to small businesses wanting to avoid many of the ACA's consumer protections. Those protections aren't a small matter; they would, among other things, prohibit insurers from charging people higher premiums because of their gender, age and health status. Buying stop-loss coverage would also allow employers to largely side-step any regulation at the state level.
So what is stop-loss coverage? Most small businesses that offer coverage buy policies from insurers that assume the risk of paying medical claims when workers get sick or injured. If a small employer buys a stop-loss policy, the small employer theoretically assumes the risk, but only to a point. If a worker becomes seriously ill, the employer would pay a certain, previously negotiated amount; only after that would the stop-loss insurer start paying.
This would be an almost irresistible deal for small employers with mostly young, healthy male workers. And chances are the stop-loss insurer wouldn't even consider selling the same policy to employers with young female and older male workers. So those employers would be the ones left to shop for coverage on the state exchanges. That's crucial - but not only because the situation would treat different people differently; it's also essential that the exchanges attract younger healthier people who get sick less in order to keep coverage for others affordable.
Leading the effort on behalf of insurers at NAIC meetings on this issue has been the Illinois Chamber of Commerce - not surprising when you look at its board, which includes WellPoint, UnitedHealthcare, Humana and Cigna, one of the biggest sellers of stop-loss insurance.
Consumer advocates won an early victory when an NAIC subcommittee this summer recommended that the organization update a 1995 Model Act that would help protect the integrity of the ACA by raising the threshold of insurance risk that an employer would have to assume before stop-loss coverage could kick in. In Washington last week, however, another NAIC committee, swayed by the Illinois Chamber and insurers, refused to go along, at least for now. It punted by asking yet another committee to gather more information.
While that was a setback for consumers, it at least gives advocates more time to make their case. Stay tuned for more. This crucial behind-the-scenes war is far from over.

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Meet Virginia's Todd Akin |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=15321"><span class="small">Josh Israel, ThinkProgress</span></a>
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Tuesday, 04 December 2012 15:23 |
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Israel writes: "With his fervent anti-science, anti-choice, and anti-LGBT, anti-federal government activism, Akin's extreme positions were well known long before his infamous August pronouncement that victims of 'legitimate rape' are unlikely to become pregnant helped derail his 2012 U.S. Senate campaign."
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli. (photo: DelMarva Observer)

Meet Virginia's Todd Akin
By Josh Israel, ThinkProgress
04 December 12
irginia's Republican Party appears poised to nominate state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli to be its candidate for governor in 2013 - embracing a man whose extreme political views bear striking resemblance to those of unsuccessful 2012 Senate candidate Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO).
With his fervent anti-science, anti-choice, and anti-LGBT, anti-federal government activism, Akin's extreme positions were well known long before his infamous August pronouncement that victims of "legitimate rape" are unlikely to become pregnant helped derail his 2012 U.S. Senate campaign. Cuccinelli's views closely mirror Akin's in all of those areas.
Over seven-and-a-half years as a Virginia state senator and three years as the commonwealth's attorney general, Republican Ken Cuccinelli II has been, in the words of the Washington Post's editorial board, "the most overtly partisan attorney general in Virginia's history." Though he claims he is "best known for his efforts to preserve liberty and defend the US Constitution," it is his opposition to liberty for women and LGBT Americans and his frequent court losses based on his flawed constitutional theories that have defined his political career to date.
While perhaps not as careless as Akin with his rhetoric, Cuccinelli has embraced many of the same extreme positions:
1. He wants an abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. His 2002 campaign website laid out Cuccinelli's abortion views clearly: "Ken believes that human life begins at conception, and that human beings should be respected and protected from conception to natural death," it said. "Ken would seek to require sonograms to be part of a 24-hour waiting period with an informed consent requirement. Ken opposes abortions that are not for the purpose of saving the mother's life." Over his political career, he has pushed to defund Planned Parenthood and embryonic stem cell research. He pushed for a ban on third trimester abortions - making no exception for serious health risks on the woman - and for "safety" regulations for abortion providers designed to force clinics to close. He has also highlighted his opposition to RU-486 and his support for a "conscience" law protecting the "right of professionals to refuse to perform an action that is inconsistent with their moral convictions" - such as providing emergency contraception - "without losing their job." Cuccinelli frequently attacks Planned Parenthood and has suggested that the fact that abortion clinics in Virginia are in urban areas with large African American populations is an example of white racism. His "ultimate goal," he has said, is to "make abortion disappear in America."
2. He does not believe LGBT people deserve legal protections. Cuccinelli has made it clear that he believes same-sex relationships are immoral. In 2009, he told a Virginia newspaper, "My view is that homosexual acts, not homosexuality, but homosexual acts are wrong. They're intrinsically wrong. And I think in a natural law based country it's appropriate to have policies that reflect that." After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in its 2003 Lawrence v. Texas case that such bans were unconstitutional, he still voted against repealing a state law making consensual sodomy a felony. He has actively pushed for state and federal constitutional amendments to prevent any legal recogntition of what he terms "what they'd like to refer to as ‘homosexual families,'" authoring a resolution calling for a federal amendment to invalidate any same-sex marriage, civil union, domestic partnership, or "other relationship analogous to marriage." He has opined that "giving public sanction to homosexual marriage ends up redefining marriage and it's certain to harm children." He even opposed a state bill that allowed private companies to voluntarily provide health insurance benefits to employees' domestic partners, warning it might "encourage this type of behavior." His advisory opinion that Virginia's public colleges and universities should rescind their non-discrimination policies was called "reprehensible" by a former Republican state legislator.
3. He is a climate-change denier. As part of his efforts to cast doubt on climate-change science, he used his position to launch an inquisition against a former University of Virginia climate scientist. Citing possible "fraud against taxpayers," Cuccinelli demanded the university provide him with a wide range of records relating Dr. Michael E. Mann's grant applications. A circuit judge and then the Virginia Supreme Court ruled that the Attorney General was incorrect in believing he had the legal authority to undertake such a fishing expedition. He blasted the ruling, newspapers blasted him for wasting Virginia tax dollars. He also failed in his federal lawsuit challenging the Environmental Protection Agency's power to regulate carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas - a unanimous appeals court upheld the agency's regulations as based on an "unambiguously correct" reading of the law. Since his legal efforts for climate-change denial failed, he often relies on mockery, asking audiences to exhale carbon dioxide in unison, during his speeches, to annoy the EPA.
4. He suggested President Obama stole the 2012 election. In a radio interview, Cuccinelli told the host he completely agreed with her assertion that investigations are needed to determine why President Obama lost "every one" of the states with photo identification requirements for voting, yet won re-election. Though studies have shown Americans are more likely to be struck by lightning than to commit voter fraud, he told the host she was "preaching to the choir" with her unfounded theory.
5. He wants Arizona-style anti-immigrant policies and self-deportation. On his 2007 campaign website, he explained that since the federal government "has been negligent in its responsibility to secure our borders," he was "committed to passing legislation that removes the economic incentives that fuel illegal immigration." To do this, he opposed in-state tuition for undocumented students, embraced limits on the number of people who can live in a house, and supported civil litigation so competitors could sue when a rival "employer knowingly hires illegal aliens." He opposed bipartisan immigration reform efforts as "amnesty" for the "illegal aliens in the job market" who are "depressing wages and reducing American's standard of living." In 2010, he wrote in an opinion that "Virginia law enforcement officers, including conservation officers may, like Arizona police officers, inquire into the immigration status of persons stopped or arrested." And Cuccinelli joined an amicus brief defending key provisions of Arizona's immigration reform law which were later ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.
6. He is a "tenther." Cuccinelli has embraced a radical interpretation of the constitution that the federal government should cede much more power to the states under the 10th Amendment. At a 2010 Tenth Amendment rally in Richmond, he told supporters of the view that "what we can do, where we live, is advocate again to bring back to life the 10th amendment, to bring back to life those boundaries in our constitutional system that were supposed to be the critical checks in the checks and balances system. Without them, we lose – gradually, we lose our liberty." In one of his briefs challenging health reform, Cuccinelli suggested that Congress is allowed to regulate "commerce on one hand" but not "manufacturing or agriculture." This is exactly the same discredited vision of the Constitution the Supreme Court implemented in the late 19th and early 20th century, and it would strike down child labor laws, the minimum wage, the federal ban on whites-only lunch counters, and countless other cherished laws.
On top of all of this, he also opposed a 2004 bill to require members of the clergy to report child abuse - a bill supported by almost every religious group in the state - and was the lone vote against another bill aimed as strengthening domestic violence protections.

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Why It's Hard to Replace the 'Fiscal Cliff' Metaphor |
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Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=8706"><span class="small">George Lakoff, Reader Supported News</span></a>
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Tuesday, 04 December 2012 09:00 |
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Lakoff writes: "The national economic debate will most likely continue to be about the misleading fiscal cliff, not the reality that 'austerity bomb' is intended to convey. This is a sad scientific truth."
George Lakoff. (photo: UC Berkeley)

Why It's Hard to Replace the 'Fiscal Cliff' Metaphor
By George Lakoff, Reader Supported News
04 December 12
riters on economics have been talking since the election about why the "fiscal cliff" metaphor is misleading. Alternative metaphors have been offered like the fiscal hill, fiscal curb, and fiscal showdown, as if one metaphor could easily be replaced by another that makes more sense of the real situation. But none of the alternatives has stuck, nor has the fiscal cliff metaphor been abandoned. Why? Why do some metaphors have far more staying power than others, even when they give a misleading picture of a crucial national issue?
The reason has to do with the way that metaphorical thought and language work in the brain. From a cognitive linguistics perspective, "fiscal cliff" is not a simple metaphor bringing "fiscal" together with "cliff." It is instead a linguistic metaphor that is understood via a highly integrated cascade of other deeper and more general conceptual metaphors.
A cascade is a neural circuit containing and coordinating neural circuits in various parts of the brain.
Because we think with our brains, every thought we have is physical, constituted by neural circuitry. Because about 98 percent of conscious thought has an unconscious neural substrate, we are rarely aware of conceptual metaphors. And because the brain is a physical system governed by conservation of energy, a tightly integrated cascade of neural metaphor circuits is more likely to be learned, remembered, and readily activated.
Let's take a look at the metaphorical complexity of "fiscal cliff" and how the metaphors that comprise it fit together. The simplest, is the metaphor named MoreIsUp, which is a neural circuit linking two distinct brain regions, one for verticality and one for quantity. It is a high-level general metaphor widespread throughout the world, and occurs in a vast number of sentences like "turn the radio up," "the temperature fell," and so on.
The economy is seen as moving forward and either moving up, moving down or staying level, where verticality metaphorically indicates the value of economic indicators like the GDP or a stock market average. These are indicators of economic activity such as overall spending on goods and services or the sale of stocks. Why is economic activity conceptualized as motion? Because a common conceptual metaphor is being used: ActivityIsMotion, as in sentences like "The project is moving along smoothly," "The remodeling is getting bogged down," and so on. The common metaphor TheFutureIsAhead accounts for why the motion is "forward."
In a diagram of changes over time in a stock market or the GDP, the metaphor used is ThePastIsLeft and TheFutureIsRight, which is why the diagram goes from left to right when the economy is conceptualized as moving "forward."
When Ben Bernanke spoke of the "fiscal cliff," he undoubtedly had in mind a graph of the economy moving along, left to right, on a slight incline and then suddenly dropping way down, which looks like a line drawing of a cliff from the side view. Such a graph has values built in via the metaphor GoodIsUp. Going down over the cliff is thus bad.
The administration has the goal of increasing GDP. Here common metaphors apply: SuccessIsUp and FailingIsFalling. Hence going over the fiscal cliff would be a serious failure for the administration and harm for the populace.
These metaphors fit together tightly in the usual graph of changes in economic activity over time, together with the metaphorical interpretation of the graph. From the neural perspective, these metaphors form a tightly integrated neural cascade -- so tightly integrated and so natural that we barely notice them, if we notice them at all.
There is, of course, more content to the "fiscal cliff." Imagine driving toward a cliff with the possibility of going over. The car you are in is out of control. The cliff is a feature of the natural environment. If the car goes over, everyone in it would be harmed or killed. Thus, if the economy is a vehicle moving forward without control toward the cliff, there is great and immediate danger, and so the "fiscal cliff" metaphor engenders fear. Thus, knowledge about driving out of control toward a cliff, together with the metaphors cited above, characterizes the implications of the "fiscal cliff" metaphor.
Because the conceptual metaphors constituting the fiscal cliff fit together so well and so naturally, it is hard to just jettison it and replace it with an even better integrated metaphor for our economic situation.
Progressive economists like Paul Krugman and Robert Reich have rejected the fiscal cliff metaphor, but with different arguments and different alternative metaphors. Krugman points out that the idea of the fiscal cliff is tied to an economically false argument about the dangers of the deficit. He argues instead that the deficit is too small and that we need to invest more, not less, in the development of the economy. The real danger, he argues is that what is called the "fiscal cliff" is really an "austerity bomb." The result would be dangerous cuts in necessary economic investments and safety nets, which would hurt many people and the economy as a whole as well, just as austerity programs in Europe have done. And Krugman has correctly pointed out that using the fiscal cliff metaphor helps conservatives because it accepts their economic theory of deficits.
Reich suggests "bungee-jumping over the fiscal cliff." He argues that President Obama should be willing to accept the drastic fiscal cliff cuts in the budget as of January 1. This could either be a "bluff" to scare the Republicans into believing the cuts would be pinned on them. Or it could be his "trump card," since the new Congress could reverse the cuts after January 1.
I agree with Krugman's economic analysis and think that Reich's political strategy is well worth considering. But from a cognitive linguistic perspective, their alternative metaphors, whatever their policy value, are not going to make it. Take "austerity bomb." The Austerity Frame is about self-denial. As used in Europe, it assumes two conceptual metaphors, TheNationalBudgetIsAFamilyBudget and TheNation'sWealthIsTheGovernment'sCashOnHand. Both are terribly misleading. Great Britain is richer than it has ever been, just as America is, if you count the total wealth of their corporations and citizens. The nations are far from broke, but the requisite money is not in the government's coffers. A family budget is nothing like a national budget, because the nation has vastly more resources and possibilities than any typical family. These are the austerity metaphors. The causal structure of austerity contradicts the causal structure of bomb. Austerity implies a long-term responsible form of self-denial that makes your situation better. Bombs blow up instantly and harm or kill you.
The idea is that austerity as a national policy would be destructive, and it most likely would be, but the metaphor doesn't have anything like a tightly integrated cascade of component metaphors.
Reich's "bungee-jumping" contradicts the inferences that arise from the tightly fitting component metaphors of the "fiscal cliff." And though Reich's "bluff" and "trump card" metaphors are instances of the commonplace BargainingIsGambling metaphor, it suggests a political strategy, but does not characterize our economic situation.
There are two morals here. First, metaphors cannot be proposed at will and be expected to work, even if they are intended to fit reality better than existing metaphors. Second, when metaphors are tightly integrated, they are going to be hard to replace and we may have to live by them, as misleading as they may be. The national economic debate will most likely continue to be about the misleading fiscal cliff, not the reality that "austerity bomb" is intended to convey. This is a sad scientific truth.

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