Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=17505"><span class="small">Marian Wright Edelman, Reader Supported News</span></a>
Sunday, 17 February 2013 09:11
Edelman writes: "Gun violence has left our nation littered with broken hearts, decade after decade."
Marian Wright Edelman, president of the Children's Defense Fund. (photo: John F. Kennedy Library Foundation)
America's Broken Hearts
By Marian Wright Edelman, Reader Supported News
17 February 13
s President Obama closed his State of the Union speech on February 12, after all of his other policy proposals for the nation's future, he said this: "Of course, what I've said tonight matters little if we don't come together to protect our most precious resource - our children."
As he urged the members of Congress in the audience to bring upcoming proposals for common sense gun reform to a vote, he continued:
In the two months since Newtown, more than a thousand birthdays, graduations, anniversaries have been stolen from our lives by a bullet from a gun. One of those we lost was a young girl named Hadiya Pendleton. She was 15 years old. She loved Fig Newtons and lip gloss. She was a majorette. She was so good to her friends, they all thought they were her best friend. Just three weeks ago, she was here, in Washington, with her classmates, performing for her country at my inauguration. And a week later, she was shot and killed in a Chicago park after school, just a mile away from my house. Hadiya's parents, Nate and Cleo, are in this chamber tonight, along with more than two dozen Americans whose lives have been torn apart by gun violence. They deserve a vote.
Like the 20 beautiful young faces of Newtown five- and six-year-olds massacred by guns two months ago, Hadiya's story and beautiful smile have become sadly familiar to many Americans over the last two weeks. As a sixth grader Hadiya had appeared in an anti-gang video to encourage other young people to avoid gang violence, saying, "It's your job as students to say ‘no' to gangs and ‘yes' to a great future." She could have meant a future like her own: As a high school sophomore, she was an honors student at a college preparatory school - doing everything right, with the world ahead of her. But all that changed because of a gun.
Gun violence has left our nation littered with broken hearts, decade after decade. Since 1968, more than 1.3 million Americans have been killed by guns including children and teens that would fill 7,815 classrooms of 20 children each. On Valentine's Day, two months to the day after the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre, Hadiya's mother Cleopatra Cowley-Pendleton joined the Children's Defense Fund and One Million Moms for Gun Control to deliver a powerful message to all members of Congress. One Million Moms for Gun Control is a non-partisan grassroots movement of American mothers created after the Sandy Hook tragedy to demand action on common-sense gun legislation. In just two months it has gained tens of thousands of members in nearly 80 chapters across the United States. In the days leading up to Valentine's Day, mothers around the country and their children made more than a thousand homemade valentines for their members of Congress with messages like this: "Have a heart. Moms demand action on common sense gun safety laws. I'm a Mom, and I vote." On Thursday the valentines were hand-delivered to each member of Congress along with a broken-hearted teddy bear with the message "Protect Children, Not Guns."
Hadiya's mother spoke at the event alongside Representative Mike Thompson (D-CA), a Vietnam veteran, gun owner, and the chair of the House of Representatives Gun Violence Prevention Task Force; Representative Elizabeth Esty (D-CT) from Newtown and a vice chair of the task force; Shannon Watts, the founder of One Million Moms for Gun Control; and Patti Hassler, CDF's Vice President of Communications, whose sister Pamela Jean Hassler Groff was a victim of domestic gun violence in her Pennsylvania home, killed by her estranged husband in front of Patti's beautiful 11-year-old niece and nine-year-old nephew. They were a reminder of how many millions of American parents, children, sisters, and brothers have been left broken-hearted by gun violence. Whether the violence happens in urban Chicago, suburban Connecticut, or rural Pennsylvania; whether guns kill by homicide, domestic violence, accident, or suicide, the resulting trauma for all of the loved ones left behind is always the same. As Patti said, "We all live with how that gun changed our lives forever ... Some wounds never heal."
This Valentine's Day, a movement of mothers and others chose to tell their members of Congress that these families are not alone - we are all left broken-hearted by their losses, and millions of Americans are ready to stand with them and demand change. Shannon Watts said, "A child's heart is her mother's pulse ... Today, I am here for every beat lost. And I am here to tell every mother who has felt her core broken because of senseless gun violence - I am here to tell you that there is an army of mothers behind you."
We all need to join the army fighting to say no more gun violence in our homes, schools, neighborhoods, and communities. Our nation's children and families have suffered enough broken hearts. We are determined that children get a vote on common-sense gun safety measures to protect them from guns. Take action with us. Watch and share our America's Broken Hearts video widely on social media. Call your members of Congress at (202) 224-3121 and tell them to protect children, not guns and end the epidemic of gun violence and broken hearts all across America which threatens our children's lives and nation's soul.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=21902"><span class="small">Kevin Roose, New York Magazine</span></a>
Saturday, 16 February 2013 11:10
Roose writes: "Even though Wall Street bankers weren't the target of Warren's interrogation yesterday ... the financial industry is apparently freaking out about the hearing, on the theory that it augurs a tough road for them ahead in dealing with Warren as a senator."
Elizabeth Warren has a seat on the powerful Senate Banking Committee. (photo: AP)
Elizabeth Warren Scares Bankers
By Kevin Roose, New York Magazine
16 February 13
his video of Senator Elizabeth Warren putting the hurt on a bunch of regulators in her first hearing on the Senate Banking Committee is pretty amusing. I'm a big fan of the clip that starts at about 2:30, when Warren asks Tom Curry, who heads a little regulatory agency called the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, why the OCC hasn't taken more Wall Street banks to trial, rather than settling out of court and getting them to pay a penalty when they break the law, and Curry hems and haws and can't really answer, so he basically goes full Milton from Office Space and then just kind of trails off and sulks.
Even though Wall Street bankers weren't the target of Warren's interrogation yesterday - the regulators who oversee them were - the financial industry is apparently freaking out about the hearing, on the theory that it augurs a tough road for them ahead in dealing with Warren as a senator. Ben White got some quotes from scared financial industry executives who called her performance "shameless grandstanding" and accused her of competing with Ted Cruz for the title of "most extreme fringe freshman senator."
Which raises the question: Are these people kidding?
Elizabeth Warren did not end up in the Senate despite taking a hard-line approach to Wall Street; she was elected almost entirely because of it. I'd wager that people outside Massachusetts who donated money to Warren's campaign or otherwise supported her run for office can't tell you anything about her political platform except that she is tough on Wall Street.
Sure, there was always the possibility that she would mellow out once elected. Keep her head down, be a workhorse instead of a show pony, and all of that. But that was always wishful thinking from the financial industry and its lobbyists. As any web editor with access to traffic stats could tell you, people love when Warren squares off on Wall Street. It delights them, the sight of a bespectacled middle-aged professor absolutely hammering suit-clad financiers, refusing to slip into the numbing jargon of the industry (note, in the video, how she translates Tom Curry's "enforcement actions" back into "settlements," a concept more normal people can immediately understand), and generally being possessed of enough specific industry knowledge that she is impossible to steamroll with technicalities.
Yes, Warren is a populist. Yes, some of her views seem reflexive and could be harmful if implemented. (Charging banks with lots of crimes, for example, would likely have the unintended consumer-unfriendly result of putting a lot of them out of business.) And yes, she sometimes misfires - aiming her wrath at, say, a panel of regulators who can only bring civil suits in the first place, rather than officials in the Justice Department like Lanny Breuer, who could actually have pressed criminal charges against banks but chose not to.
But she is also talking to Wall Street in a way it's not used to hearing from elected officials, and it's making her a rising star in the Democratic Party. Bankers should probably stop griping, and start getting used to it.
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=8706"><span class="small">George Lakoff, Reader Supported News</span></a>
Saturday, 16 February 2013 09:14
Lakoff writes: "By all means, discuss the policies. Praise them when you like them, criticize them when they fall short. Don't hold back. Talk in public. Write to others. But be sure to make clear the basic principles behind the policies."
Portrait, George Lakoff. (photo: UC Berkeley)
Speaking Out Is at the Heart of Being a Citizen
By George Lakoff, Reader Supported News
16 February 13
olitical journalists have a job to do - to examine the SOTU's long list of proposals. They are doing that job, many are doing it well, and I'll leave it to them. Instead, I want to discuss what in the long run is a deeper question: How did the SOTU help to change public discourse? What is the change? And technically, how did it work?
The address was coherent. There was a single frame that fit together all the different ideas, from economics to the environment to education to gun safety to voting rights. The big change in public discourse was the establishment of that underlying frame, a frame that will, over the long haul, accommodate many more specific proposals.
Briefly, the speech worked via frame evocation. Not statement, evocation - the unconscious and automatic activation in the brains of listeners of a morally-based progressive frame that made sense of what the president said.
When a frame is repeatedly activated, it is strengthened. Obama's progressive frame was strengthened not only in die-hard progressives, but also in partial progressives, those who are progressive on some issues and conservative on others - the so-called moderates, swing voters, independents, and centrists. As a result, 77 percent of listeners approved of the speech, 53 percent strongly positive and 24 percent somewhat positive, with only 22 percent negative. When that deep progressive frame is understood and accepted by a 77 percent margin, the president has begun to move America toward a progressive moral vision.
If progressives are going to maintain and build on the president's change in public discourse so far, we need to understand just what that change has been and how he accomplished it.
It hasn't happened all at once.
In 2008, candidate Obama made overt statements. He spoke overtly about empathy and the responsibility to act on it as the basis of democracy. He spoke about the need for an "ethic of excellence." He spoke about the role of government to protect and empower everyone equally.
After using the word "empathy" in the Sotomayor nomination, he dropped it when conservatives confused it with sympathy and unfairness. But the idea didn't disappear.
By the 2013 Inaugural Address, he directly quoted the Declaration and Lincoln, overtly linking patriotism and the essence of democracy to empathy, to Americans caring for one another and taking responsibility for one another as well as themselves. He spoke overtly about how private success depends on public provisions. He carried out these themes with examples. And he had pretty much stopped making the mistake of using conservative language, even to negate it. The change in public discourse became palpable.
The 2013 SOTU followed this evolution a crucial step further. Instead of stating the frames overly, he took them for granted and the nation understood. Public discourse had shifted; brains had changed. So much so that John Boehner looked shamed as he slumped, sulking in his chair, as if trying to disappear. Changed so much that Marco Rubio's response was stale and defensive: the old language wasn't working and Rubio kept talking in rising tones indicating uncertainty.
Here is how Obama got to 77 percent approval as an unapologetic progressive.
The president set his theme powerfully in the first few sentences - in about 30 seconds.
Fifty-one years ago, John F. Kennedy declared to this Chamber that 'the Constitution makes us not rivals for power but partners for progress ... It is my task,' he said, 'to report the State of the Union - to improve it is the task of us all.' Tonight, thanks to the grit and determination of the American people, there is much progress to report. ...
First, Obama recalled Kennedy - a strong, unapologetic liberal. "Partners" evokes working together, an implicit attack on conservative stonewalling, while "for progress" makes clear his progressive direction. "To improve it is the task of us all" evokes the progressive theme that we're all in this together with the goal of improving the common good. "The grit and determination of the American people" again says we work together, while incorporating the "grit and determination" stereotype of Americans pulling themselves up by their bootstraps - overcoming a "grinding war" and "grueling recession." He specifically and wisely did not pin the war and recession on the Bush era Republicans, as he reasonably could have. That would have divided Democrats from Republicans. Instead, he treated war and recession as if they were forces of nature that all Americans joined together to overcome. Then he moved on seamlessly to the "millions of Americans whose hard work and dedication have not yet been rewarded," which makes rewarding that work and determination "the task of us all."
This turn in discourse started working last year. Empathy and social responsibility as central American values reappeared in spades in the 2012 campaign right after Mitt Romney made his 47 percent gaff, that 47 percent of Americans were not succeeding because they were not talking personal responsibility for their lives. This allowed Obama to reframe people out of work, sick, injured, or retired as hard working and responsible and very much part of the American ideal, evoking empathy for them from most other Americans. It allowed him to meld the hard working and struggling Americans with the hard working and just getting by Americans into a progressive stereotype of hard working Americans in general who need help to overcome external forces holding them back. It is a patriotic stereotype that joins economic opportunity with equality, freedom and civil rights: "if you work hard and meet your responsibilities, you can get ahead, no matter where you come from, what you look like, or who you love."
It is an all-American vision:
It is our unfinished task to make sure that this government works on behalf of the many, and not just the few; that it encourages free enterprise, rewards individual initiative, and opens the doors of opportunity to every child across this great nation.
"Our unfinished task" refers to citizens - us - as ruling the government, not the reverse. "We" are making the government do what is right. To work "on behalf of the many, and not just the few." And he takes from the progressive vision the heart of the conservative message. "We" require the government to encourage free enterprise, reward individual initiative, and provide opportunity for all. It is the reverse of the conservative view of the government ruling us. In a progressive democracy, the government is the instrument of the people, not the reverse.
In barely a minute, he provided a patriotic American progressive vision that seamlessly adapts the heart of the conservative message. Within this framework comes the list of policies, each presented with empathy for ideal Americans. In each case, we, the citizens who care about our fellow citizens, must make our imperfect government do the best it can for fellow Americans who do meet, or can with help meet, the American ideal.
With this setting of the frame, each item on the list of policies fits right in. We, the citizens, use the government to protect us and maximally enable us all to make use of individual initiative and free enterprise.
The fact that the policy list was both understood and approved of by 77 percent of those watching means that one-third of those who did not vote for the president have assimilated his American progressive moral vision.
The president's list of economic policies was criticized by some as a lull - a dull, low energy section of the speech. But the list had a vital communicative function beyond the policies themselves. Each item on the list evoked, and thereby strengthened in the brains of most listeners, the all-American progressive vision of the first section of the speech. Besides, if you're going to build to a smash finish, you have to build from a lull.
And it was a smash finish! Highlighting his gun safety legislation by introducing one after another of the people whose lives were shattered by well-reported gun violence. With each introduction came the reframe "They deserve a vote" over and over and over. He was chiding the Republicans not just for being against the gun safety legislation, but for being unwilling to even state their opposition in public, which a vote would require. The president is all too aware that, even in Republican districts, there is great support for gun safety reform, support that threatens conservative representatives. "They deserve a vote" is a call for moral accounting from conservative legislators. It is a call for empathy for the victims in a political form, a form that would reveal the heartlessness, the lack of Republican empathy for the victims. "They deserve a vote" shamed the Republicans in the House. As victim after victim stood up while the Republicans sat slumped and close-mouthed in their seats, shame fell on the Republicans.
And then it got worse for Republicans. Saving the most important for last - voting reform - President Obama introduced Desiline Victor, a 102-year spunky African American Florida woman who was told she would have to wait six hours to vote. She hung in there, exhausted but not defeated, for many hours and eventually voted. The room burst into raucous applause, putting to shame the Republicans who are adopting practices and passing laws to discourage voting by minority groups.
And with the applause still ringing, he introduced police officer Brian Murphy who held off armed attackers at the Sikh Temple in Minneapolis, taking twelve bullets and lying in a puddle of his blood while still protecting the Sikhs. When asked how he did it, he replied, "That's just how we're made."
That gave the president a finale to end where he began.
We may do different jobs, and wear different uniforms, and hold different views than the person beside us. But as Americans, we all share the same proud title: We are citizens. It's a word that doesn't just describe our nationality or legal status. It describes the way we're made. It describes what we believe. It captures the enduring idea that this country only works when we accept certain obligations to one another and to future generations; that our rights are wrapped up in the rights of others; and that well into our third century as a nation, it remains the task of us all, as citizens of these United States, to be the authors of the next great chapter in our American story.
It was a finale that gave the lie to the conservative story of America, that democracy is an individual matter, that it gives each of us the liberty to seek his own interests and well-being without being responsible for anyone else or anyone else being responsible for him, from which it follows that the government should not be in the job of helping its citizens. Marco Rubio came right after and tried out this conservative anthem that has been so dominant since the Reagan years. It fell flat.
President Obama, in this speech, created what cognitive scientists call a "prototype" - an ideal American defined by a contemporary progressive vision that incorporates a progressive market with individual opportunity and initiative. It envisions an ideal citizenry that is in charge of the government, forcing the president and the Congress to do the right thing.
That is how the president has changed public discourse. He has changed it at the level that counts, the deepest level, the moral level. What can make that change persist? What will allow such an ideal citizenry to come into existence?
The president can't do it. Congress can't do it. Only we can as citizens, by adopting the president's vision, thinking in his moral frames, and speaking out from that vision whenever possible. Speaking out is at the heart of being a citizen, speaking out is political action, and only if an overwhelming number of us speak out, and live out, this American vision, will the president and the Congress be forced to do what is best for all.
By all means, discuss the policies. Praise them when you like them, criticize them when they fall short. Don't hold back. Talk in public. Write to others. But be sure to make clear the basic principles behind the policies.
And don't use the language of the other side, even to negate it. Remember that if you say "Don't Think of an Elephant," people will think of an elephant.
Structure is important. Start with the general principles, move to policy details, finish with the general principles.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.
Grabar writes: "Halfway through the Justice Department white paper defending the lawfulness of government-ordered assassinations of U.S. citizens, there is a curious reference to a dark chapter of American history."
An MQ-9 Reaper at Creech Air Force Base. (photo: USAF/Lance Cheung)
What the US Bombing of Cambodia Tells Us
By Henry Grabar, The Atlantic
15 February 13
Halfway through the Justice Department white paper [PDF] defending the lawfulness of government-ordered assassinations of U.S. citizens, there is a curious reference to a dark chapter of American history.
The memo, making the legal case for covertly expanding military operations across international borders, directs readers to an address by State Department legal adviser John R. Stevenson, "United States Military Action in Cambodia: Questions of International Law," delivered to the New York Bar Association in 1970.
The comparison is fitting in ways the Justice Department surely did not intend.
Like the current conflict, the military action in neutral Cambodia was so secretive that information about the first four years of bombing, from 1965 to 1969, was not made public until 2000. And like the current conflict, the operation in Cambodia stood on questionable legal ground. The revelation of its existence, beginning in 1969, was entangled with enough illegal activity in this country -- wiretaps, perjury, falsification of records and a general determination to deceive -- to throw significant doubt on its use as a precedent in court.
The most important parallel, though, isn't legal or moral: it's strategic. As critics wonder what kind of backlash might ensue from drone attacks that kill civilians and terrorize communities, Cambodia provides a telling historical precedent.
Between 1965 and 1973, the U.S. dropped 2.7 million tons of explosives -- more than the Allies dropped in the entiretyof World War II -- on Cambodia, whose population was then smaller than New York City's. Estimates of the number of people killed begin in the low hundreds of thousands and range up from there, but the truth is that no one has any idea.
The bombing had two primary effects on survivors. First, hundreds of thousands of villagers fled towards the safety of the capital Phnom Penh, de-stabilizing Cambodia's urban-rural balance. By the end of the war, the country's delicate food supply system was upended, and the capital was so overcrowded that residents were eating bark off of trees.
Secondly, the attacks radicalized a population that had previously been neutral in the country's politics. The severity of the advanced air campaign -- "I want everything that can fly to go in there and crack the hell out of them," then-U.S. President Richard Nixon told National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger -- fomented immense anger in the Cambodian countryside. Charles Meyer, an aide to the deposed Prince Sihanouk, said that it was "difficult to imagine the intensity of [the peasants'] hatred towards those who are destroying their villages and property." Journalist Richard Dudman was more precise. "The bombing and the shooting," he wrote after a period in captivity in the Cambodian jungle, "was radicalizing the people of rural Cambodia and was turning the country into a massive, dedicated, and effective rural base."
Nevertheless, many historians continued to deny the causal link between the violence and the political upheavals in the country. Cambodia's embrace of radicalism instead fit neatly into the Cold War-era "domino theory" paradigm, de-emphasizing the role of local conditions in driving the country's history.
William Shawcross, in 1979's Sideshow: Kissenger. Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia , was the first to advance the theory that the meteoric rise of the Khmer Rouge was not in spite of the U.S. bombing campaign but because of it. Taylor Owen, the research director of the Tow Center for Digital Journalism at Columbia, and Ben Kiernan, director of the Genocide Studies Program at Yale, have concluded that the full war archives, released by President Clinton in 2000, confirm this version of history.
"The impact of this bombing... is clearer than ever," they write. "Civilian casualties in Cambodia drove an enraged populace into the arms of an insurgency that had enjoyed relatively little support until the bombing began, setting in motion the expansion of the Vietnam War deeper into Cambodia, a coup d'etat in 1970, the rapid rise of the Khmer Rouge, and ultimately the Cambodian genocide."
In tactical terms, contemporary drone attacks are far more precise than the pell-mell Cambodia-era bombs. One comparison, though, remains apt: in both cases, the American government has been less than forthcoming about the effect of these weapons on local populations. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism reports that between 2,500 and 3,500 people have been killed by drone strikes, including -- contrary to the recent statements of CIA nominee John Brennan -- between 473 and 893 civilians, and 176 children. (The classification of civilians has been called into question as well. The Obama administration reportedly "counts all military-age males in a strike zone as combatants," unless posthumously proved innocent.)
This point of view is echoed by Pakistani journalist Mohammed Hanif, who recently argued that the strikes are not only radicalizing the population but are "creating a whole new generation of people who will grow up thinking that this is what happened to us and now, now we want revenge." In Pakistan and Yemen, Jo Becker and Scott Shane wrote in the New York Times, "drones have become the recruiting tool of choice for militants."
In this respect, the DOJ could not have found a more fitting precedent than the carpet-bombing of Cambodia. The purpose of the sustained bombardment from 1972 to 1973 was to prevent the Khmer Rouge from consolidating power. The result was the opposite.
The thousands of people killed so far by drone strikes represent a fraction of the several hundred thousand who died beneath the B-52s between 1969 and 1975. But the level of fear and anger -- and the opportunity for insurgent groups to harness those emotions -- cannot be so easily calculated.
In the words of retired General Stanley McChrystal, the former commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, one can't help but hear an echo of Charles Meyer, Richard Dudman, and other observers of the Cambodia campaign. "What scares me about the drone strikes is how they are perceived around the world," McChrystal said last month. "The resentment created by American use of unmanned strikes...is much greater than the average American appreciates. They are hated on a visceral level, even by people who've never seen one or seen the effects of one."
Grove writes: "Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is said by well-connected Democrats to be considering the idea of running for president if Hillary Clinton opts out of the 2016 race."
Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel. (photo: Brian Blanco/EPA)
Rahm for President?
By Lloyd Grove, The Daily Beast
15 February 13
Obama's former chief of staff Rahm Emanuel might make a go for 2016, two well-connected Democrats tell Lloyd Grove - as long as Hillary doesn't. And the potty-mouthed Chicago mayor could win.
hicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel is said by well-connected Democrats to be considering the idea of running for president if Hillary Clinton opts out of the 2016 race.
The 53-year-old Emanuel, who is busy raising money for his 2015 reelection campaign in the Windy City, has had discussions both over the phone and face to face in the past month with Democratic Party donors and fundraisers about a possible White House run, according to sources.
It's unclear who raised the subject - Emanuel or the donors - and the mayor's press secretary initially didn't offer clarity on who said what to whom. Hours after this story was published, however, Tarah Cooper emailed denying that the mayor "raised or entertained" the subject of a White House run. She also sent a photo of Emanuel's scrawl on yellow legal paper vowing "not ever" to run "for another office" and reiterated his longstanding pledge that, in his words, he's "not interested. Not going to do it. No. I'll do it in Hebrew: lo." (Emanuel, the son of an Israeli doctor, had dual citizenship until he was 18.) Others expressed skepticism that any such discussions between Emanuel and donors could have been serious.
"I talk to Rahm almost every single day, sometimes more than once a day, and he's never said anything like that to me," said Democratic strategist Paul Begala, a colleague and friend from Bill Clinton's White House. "This is the first I've heard of it. That doesn't mean it didn't happen."
Clinton loyalist James Carville, another friend of the mayor's, echoed Begala's dubious assessment: "I never have heard something like that, and it's not like I don't talk to Rahm all the time. And it's not like people close to him ever brought it up."
Yet rumors of Emanuel's higher ambitions persist. "I heard there were some conversations with donors especially during the inauguration," a well-known Democratic politico told The Daily Beast, referring to the January 20-21 celebrations in Washington marking the launch of President Obama's second term. A second highly placed Democrat echoed that account.
Emanuel - Obama's former chief of staff, a former member of the House Democratic leadership, and before that a senior staffer in the Clinton White House - maintained a high profile during the inaugural festivities, hosting a well-attended after-party at Washington's Hamilton Restaurant and generally making a splash.
"He's never going to kill the buzz," said a campaign comrade-in-arms, noting that the hard-charging Emanuel is no shrinking violet and has always enjoyed the limelight. He was, after all, a ballet dancer in his youth. "If people were encouraging him to run, he'd like that. But when he came back to Chicago to run for mayor [in late 2010], the plan was not then to run for governor and then run for president. In some ways, he's a kid in a candy store as mayor."
Begala argued that for Emanuel, who'd yearned to become Speaker of the House before giving up his congressional seat to work for Obama, being mayor of his hometown is the dream job. "Just being mayor, it's the happiest I've ever seen him," Begala said. "It's certainly the most rewarding job he's had. He's really, really, really focused on it."
Carville, meanwhile, said all signs point to the prohibitive front-runner status of Obama's first-term secretary of state. "My fervent hope is that Hillary runs," Carville said. "If I've talked to a Democrat who doesn't want her to run, I can't remember it. The classic thing to say about presidential elections is that Democrats are looking to fall in love and that Republicans fall in line. This time, it's the Democrats who are falling in line, and the Republicans are looking for somebody to fall in love with."
Still, if Clinton decided not to be a candidate in 2016, Emanuel, along with Vice President Biden and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, would immediately be a first-tier prospect for the Democratic nomination.
"If Hillary doesn't run, the lineup isn't exactly impressive," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. "Who do the Democrats have? Cuomo, and a vice president who's going to be 74 by Inauguration Day. Then there's Martin O'Malley, the governor of Maryland? Brian Schweitzer, the former governor of Montana? Kirsten Gillibrand? These are not giants in a forest of redwoods."
Emanuel, on the other hand, "would be regarded as a very serious candidate," Sabato said, adding that his political and policy experience from tours in two different White Houses and Congress - especially as chairman and chief strategist of the campaign committee that helped sweep Democrats back into the House majority in 2006 - would be difficult for other contenders to match. "Rahm running for president is not as farfetched as it might sound," Sabato said. "He's got an impressive résumé."
Emanuel's downside, Sabato said, is "he's voluble" - apparently a euphemism for potty-mouthed - "and he has a long list of enemies. And rightly or wrongly, most people associate Chicago with hardball politics and corruption. Rahm has the image of being very, very partisan. So maybe he's perfect for a polarized, partisan era."
Emanuel confidant Bill Daley, President Clinton's former secretary of commerce and Emanuel's successor as the Obama White House chief of staff, tried to throw cold water on what he called "bullshit speculation."
"I'd be surprised if he'd be stupid enough to actually say something like that to people," said Daley, the son and brother of former Chicago mayors, adding that Emanuel raised $14 million for his last mayoral campaign and "he's trying to raise enough this time to scare anybody else out of the race." Although he's popular and well positioned for reelection in two years, "anything can happen," Daley said, "and Rahm is as paranoid as ever."
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