Schwarz writes: "Whether the U.S. drone war is right or wrong, wise or mind-numbingly stupid, it's like half of history's science fiction novels come to life simultaneously - billions of dollars, thousands of people, and hundreds of years of physics and chemistry all combined to deliver 18 pounds of explosives to one tiny target."
IBM. (photo: Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images)
Drones, IBM, and the Big Data of Death
By John Schwarz, The Intercept
28 October 15
ast week The Intercept published a package of stories on the U.S. drone program, drawing on a cache of secret government documents leaked by an intelligence community whistleblower. The available evidence suggests that one of the documents, a study titled “ISR Support to Small Footprint CT Operations — Somalia/Yemen,” was produced for the Defense Department in 2013 by consultants from IBM. If you look at just one classified PowerPoint presentation this year, I recommend you make it this one.
Like a good poem, the ISR study has multiple meanings, and rewards careful attention and repeated reading. On its surface, it’s simply an analysis by the Defense Department’s Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Task Force of the “performance and requirements” of the U.S. military’s counterterrorism kill/capture operations, including drone strikes, in Somalia and Yemen. However, it’s also what a former senior special operations officer characterized as a “bitch brief” — that is, a study designed to be a weapon in a bureaucratic turf war with the CIA to win the Pentagon more money and a bigger mandate. The study was also presumably an opportunity for IBM to demonstrate that it can produce snappy “analysis” tailored to the desires of its Defense Department clients, as well as for current Defense employees to network with a potential future employer.
But the presentation’s most compelling meaning is much deeper: It’s a rare, peculiar cultural artifact that opens a window into the deep guts of the military-industrial complex, where the technologies of assassination and corporate sales converge, all described in language as dead as the target of an ISR platform kinetic engagement.
Edge Methods
In 2010, IBM employees delivered a talk at IBM’s Analytics Solution Center in Washington, D.C., titled “An Introduction to Edge Methods: Business Analytics and Optimization for Intelligence.” The audience was “the Defense and Intelligence communities,” and IBM’s goal was to explain to them how the company could help them with “managing large volumes of data” to derive “invaluable” insights. Among its already-existing governmental customers, IBM explained, was the ISR Task Force.
Although buried in reams of corporate management gobbledygook (IBM, it turns out, is “Mission Focused” and “Performance Driven”), the talk’s key theme was that IBM was offering prospective new government clients its “expertise in integrating business and technology services” using its “commercial consulting methods.” That is, IBM was bringing what it had learned from managing Big Data for corporate America to the military and intelligence worlds.
Keep that in mind as you examine the secret ISR study, and you’ll see that the Pentagon’s drone program uses data analytics in almost precisely the same way IBM encourages corporations to use it to track customers. The only significant difference comes at the very end of the drone process, when the customer is killed.
An Introduction to Edge Methods: Business Analytics and Optimization for Intelligence, page 4. (photo: The Intercept)
For instance, according to the ISR study, the drone program seeks to “find,” “fix,” and “finish” its “high-value individuals.” Meanwhile, in IBM’s description of Big Data for the private sector, there are precisely equivalent goals: to “acquire,” “retain,” and “personalize” a corporation’s “high-value customers.”
The drone infrastructure uses Big Data to “build target packages” about its high-value individuals, while corporations can “build profiles of the most profitable current customers.” Drones attempt “to maintain 24/7 persistent stare,” just as corporations need “to get a 360 view of the customer.”
The successful “finish” stage of a drone strike is termed a “jackpot,” while for businesses the “personalization” stage is where it all comes together, “converting insights into relevance to deliver targeted messages.” High-value customers receive an emailed coupon informing them that they haven’t bought new socks in nine months, whereas for high-value individuals the targeted message takes the form of a Hellfire missile.
Likewise, the language of the drone study mimics corporate Big Data’s uncanny lack of affect. In both cases, highly trained technicians discuss how to make the system work more efficiently, with no room for unprofessional emotions. After examining the drone study, Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg noted its “reliance on abstract euphemisms for methods of mass murder, acronyms, and bloodless jargon to assure you were communicating with people who were cleared, in the know, and dependent for their income and advancement on uncritical devotion to the objective.”
Bloodless is exactly the right word: The ISR study is bloodless both metaphorically and literally. Whether the U.S. drone war is right or wrong, wise or mind-numbingly stupid, it’s like half of history’s science fiction novels come to life simultaneously — billions of dollars, thousands of people, and hundreds of years of physics and chemistry all combined to deliver 18 pounds of explosives to one tiny target. Yet the study’s language has less zest than the wiring diagram for an air conditioner.
There is also no actual blood in the presentation. The high-value individuals marked for death barely possess human names; instead they are objectified with code names such as Objective Peckham or Objective Rhodes or Objective Canton. They are not shredded by shrapnel into scraps of wet, red flesh, but rather experience a “kinetic engagement” or “finishing action.” And while the drone program attempts to monitor them with unblinking HD video, there is no suggestion they ever had any existence beyond that of a target. Nor is there any sign of the American human beings who make the drone program run on a day-to-day level — just FSs, MFWs, and JWICS, hundreds and hundreds of International Business Machines.
Finally, there’s the most important aspect of IBM’s identical Big Data approaches to death and customer service: Both are extremely powerful systems that have escaped any kind of human, democratic control. As Ellsberg puts it, the drone study is “unintelligible to anyone who might ask, ‘to what end is all this?’ or ‘do we have the right to be doing this?’ or ‘is this making us more secure, in the mid- to long-term, or on balance less so?’ or ‘is this creating more people who hate us — including the families of EKIAs (unintended victims) — and wish to harm us, than it is eliminating?’”
Surprisingly, after his retirement, Gen. Stanley McChrystal made a similar point: “Although to the United States, a drone strike seems to have very little risk and very little pain, at the receiving end, it feels like war. … If we were to use our technological capabilities carelessly … we should not be upset when someone responds with their equivalent, which is a suicide bomb in Central Park, because that’s what they can respond with.”
There Are No Nations
As a resident of New York City, I feel this viscerally. I don’t mean that figuratively; I feel it in my viscera, right underneath my stomach. If you would like to feel it too, try walking down West 45th Street in Times Square, past the offices of MTV. In 2010 Faisal Shahzad parked his Nissan SUV there, near Broadway — about 15 blocks south of McChrystal’s hypothetical Central Park terrorism — in an attempt to set off a non-hypothetical car bomb. Shahzad later specified that he was retaliating for, among other things, “the drone strikes in Somalia and Yemen” — i.e., the subject of the classified ISR study.
But Big Data will never be used to examine these questions, even with figures as significant as McChrystal asking them, just as Apple will never hire IBM to help it determine whether the world finally has enough iPhones. As IBM says, one of the “basic structural components” of Big Data is to “increase profitability.” And if the 14 years since 2001 have proven anything, it’s that the drive to “increase profitability” is at the core of all significant decisions by the people who run the United States. The drone war could generate bombings in 100 U.S. cities, accidentally obliterate 100 weddings in Yemen, or cause the few countries still standing in the Middle East to dissolve, and the killing would continue. If the drone war somehow became unprofitable for large corporations, however, it would be over that afternoon.
You may know the famous scene from the 1976 movie Network in which the chairman of Communications Corporation of America explains to Howard Beale that “there are no nations, there are no peoples … there is no America, there is no democracy.” But you likely don’t remember which corporation came first when he describes what actually does exist: “There is only IBM and ITT and AT&T and DuPont, Dow, Union Carbide, and Exxon. Those are the nations of the world today.” IBM received over $1.34 billion in federal contracts in fiscal year 2014, an increase of $108 million over FY 2013.
(A Pentagon spokesperson declined to comment or answer questions about IBM’s role in producing the ISR study, saying “the report you reference is an internal classified document. As a matter of policy we don’t comment on the details of classified reports.” IBM did not respond to a request for comment.)
South Carolina Officer Assault Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=28829"><span class="small">Carimah Townes, ThinkProgress</span></a>
Wednesday, 28 October 2015 08:29
Townes writes: "A South Carolina police officer in Richland County slammed a girl to the ground and dragged her out of a high school classroom, sparking outrage Monday night when videos filmed by students surfaced on social media. But the officer's assault on the student is neither isolated nor rare. Black and brown students are disproportionately targeted and disciplined by law enforcement in schools across the country."
Officer Ben Fields caught assaulting a student on video. (photo: YouTube)
South Carolina Officer Assault Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg
By Carimah Townes, ThinkProgress
28 October 15
South Carolina police officer in Richland County slammed a girl to the ground and dragged her out of a high school classroom, sparking outrage Monday night when videos filmed by students surfaced on social media. Though the video is shocking, it is actually a glimpse into the reality of many classrooms across the country, where the school-to-prison pipeline begins.
According to the girl’s classmates, School Resource Officer (SRO) Ben Fields was called to the classroom when the Spring Valley High School student refused to put her phone away and leave the room at her teacher’s request. The teacher first called an administrator to remove the her, but the girl did not budge. When Fields arrived at the scene, the student refused his orders to get up. Then he grabbed her, slammed her backwards to the ground, and dragged her to the front of the room. In one video, he’s heard saying “give me your hands.”
Watch it here:
“I’ve never seen anything so nasty looking, so sick to the point that you know, other students are turning away, don’t know what to do, and are just scared for their lives,” Tony Robinson Jr., one of the students who recorded the altercation, explained. “That’s supposed to be somebody that’s going to protect us. Not somebody that we need to be scare off, or afraid.”
The student was charged with disturbing the peace. Another student was arrested for speaking up in her defense. Fields has been taken out of the school and is currently on administrative leave. An investigation of the officer is pending, and the sheriff has asked the FBI and Justice Department to conduct their own investigation.
But the officer’s assault on the student is neither isolated nor rare. SROs have been present in schools since the 1950s, but reliance on them for campus security surged in the wake of the Columbine shooting. Federal funding for school officers also increased after the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012.
Hockenos writes: "Immigration could help European countries reverse their negative demographic trends and boost their economic growth."
European refugee children. (photo: AFP)
Refugees Will Change Europe for the Better
By Paul Hockenos, Al Jazeera America
28 October 15
Immigration could help European countries reverse their negative demographic trends and boost their economic growth
he influx of refugees into Europe from the Middle East and North Africa continues unabated. At least 1.5 million people are expected reach European shores before the end of 2015. Today European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker is hosting emergency talks with leaders from Central and Eastern Europe to address the crisis.
As the numbers of asylum seekers climbs, populists and critics are pushing the panic button, which is reflected in the violence against refugees and a rise in support for far-right parties. But their alarmism is misguided. Newcomers should be welcomed as a blessing for European countries. Europe desperately needs more people to reverse its negative demographic trend, and it could benefit from the predominantly Muslim immigrants in other ways.
Demographic crisis
First, demographics: Deaths outpace births across Europe. The gap is acute and pressing in Germany, but the Europe-wide problem receives too little attention. European leaders must lure young people to populate their cities, pay pensions for retirees and care for them as well as to sustain the continent’s growth.
Germany’s growing economy may be exceptional in recession-plagued Europe, but its demographic quandary isn’t. Germans have been graying as a nation and dwindling in numbers for decades. If this trend persists, the German population will shrink from 81.5 million to 60 million over the next 35 years — even if 100,000 people immigrate to Germany every year. In 2014, Germany welcomed 550,483 new migrants to keep its total population steady. But unless fertility rates rebound dramatically, a regular inflow of immigrants is needed from outside the country.
In contrast to the early 1990s, when Germany instigated EU-wide asylum reform to limit immigration, today, the German business community — already struggling to fill job vacancies and empty spots in vocational training programs — is firmly behind Chancellor Angela Merkel’s welcoming stance and wants the newcomers trained and integrated more swiftly.
Other European countries such as Spain and Portugal are also suffering from low birthrates exacerbated by the emigration of hundreds of thousands of countrymen since the euro crisis hit in 2010. Portugal’s population is estimated to drop, from 10.5 million to 6.3 million by 2060.
But the crunch could be worse in Central European countries that are stubbornly sealing off their borders. Eastern and Central European countries are expected to lose the most population per capita over the next few decades. For example, Bulgaria’s population could drop 12 percent by 2030 and 28 percent by 2050. Should current trends continue, Central Europe could be depopulated and economically depressed, even as pro-immigrant nations such as Germany and Sweden become more multicultural and prosperous.
Economic benefits
The refugees offer Europe more than their numbers. Their reception and integration will require investment that could help pull Europe out of recession. Language instructors, social workers, translators, teachers, vocational trainers and other personnel are needed to facilitate their socialization. For example, the refugee inflow could finally push Germany to initiate a spending program that experts, including economists at Deutsche Bank, have long advocated for to sustain the country’s growth and help pull the rest of Europe out of its slump.
Germany will also have to consider the construction of social housing for the refugees, which would benefit low-income Germans as well. In recent years, the country has allowed its once vaunted public housing programs — rental apartments owned and managed by the state or nonprofit organizations — to slip. Almost no new social housing has been built since 2007, which has led to rent hikes everywhere. Hamburg and Berlin now have plans to build 5,600 and 3,000 units, respectively. Other municipalities should follow suit.
Finally, the overwhelmingly Muslim refugees could be a boon to security. After all, most of the Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi refugees are fleeing Islamic fundamentalism and thus are the least likely to support radical groups. In fact, their experiences and attitudes could have a moderating effect on Europe’s Muslim communities. It is plausible that radicals could still use the refugee flow to plant sleeper cells across Europe, but German authorities have yet to detect a single figure on their security lists. Moreover, by absorbing more Muslim refugees, Europe is de facto beginning a process of reconciliation with the Muslim world, especially in the Middle East and Northern Africa. Europe’s generous response to Muslim refugees may even bring Occident and Orient closer together. Islam is now firmly a part of Europe, not an exception to the Christian rule. Once the war ends, Europeans may get to know Syria the way they now know Turkey.
Integration
However, all of this can happen only if European leaders pursue integration smartly. For example, the newcomers cannot be concentrated in outlying suburbs, as with the banlieues of Paris. European leaders should look to the lessons France and Germany learned in the postwar decades, when large numbers of Turkish and other immigrants arrived to work in their factories and fields.
The West Germans were much too slow to recognize these migrants as fellow citizens but rather saw them as guest workers who would pack their bags and one day go home. Today those Turkish immigrants hold German passports, pay taxes, hold management positions and intermarry. Germany is stronger, healthier, more prosperous and diverse because of them.
It is equally imperative that the newly arriving refugees accept the basic tenets of Western society and its rules. Islam itself isn’t as much a barrier as is cultural conservatism, which infuses many religions. If we openly welcome and orient them in it, the refugees will learn about European society and internalize its values more wholeheartedly. Merkel’s “we will manage” stance was the first step in the right direction.
It is time for European leaders to recognize immigration for the asset that it can be. They cannot allow far-right parties — increasingly in ascendance — to dominate the discourse. As The Guardian’s Will Hutton put it in a recent op-ed, “Whether we’re discussing the Roman or British empires, 15th century Venice or 20th century New York or London today, great civilizations and dynamic cities have been defined by being open to immigrants and refugees.”
Europe is at a historic crossroads. It should seize the opportunity.
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=36361"><span class="small">Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Facebook Page</span></a>
Tuesday, 27 October 2015 14:11
Reich writes: "Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and now among the front-runners in the Republican primary, has an essay in this morning's Wall Street Journal in which she blames Obama and Hillary Clinton for widening inequality."
Robert Reich. (photo: Perian Flaherty)
Carly Fiorina Is a Poster Child for the Powerful
By Robert Reich, Robert Reich's Facebook Page
27 October 15
arly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and now among the front-runners in the Republican primary, has an essay in this morning’s Wall Street Journal in which she blames Obama and Hillary Clinton for widening inequality. “People at the top seem to be doing just fine …. in the period 2009-2012, 95% of the gains went to the top 1%.” Her explanation: “because big government only works for big business, the powerful, the wealthy and the well-connected."
Her premise is wrong, of course (inequality took off in the 1980s under Reagan, and Republicans have done everything in their power to keep it widening since then). But it's also an odd argument for Ms. Fiorina -- who’s the poster child for big business, the powerful, the wealthy and the well-connected. Last year her former company, Hewlett-Packard, spent $5,179,818 on lobbying, mostly to reduce its tax bill, and donated over $1 million to political campaigns and parties, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Ms. Fiorina herself contributed more than $5.7 million to her failed Senate campaign in 2010, and counts among her major backers hedge-fund billionaire Paul Singer, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.
Fiorina doesn’t propose getting big money out of politics, reversing “Citizens United,” public financing of elections, or even disclosing the sources of all campaign funding. All she wants is a “smaller government,” which, presumably, means one that does absolutely nothing for anyone other than big business, the powerful, the wealthy, and the well-connected.
What do you think?
Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and now among the front-runners in the Republican primary, has an essay...
Pinto writes: "On October 6th, news reports heralded a historic development: The world's largest incarcerator, the United States of America, was about to make the largest one-time release of prisoners in its history. The U.S. Justice Department announced that it would be releasing some 6,000 inmates from federal prisons before the end of their original sentences."
Prisoners wait in line. (photo: Lucy Nicholson/Reuters)
Why Can't We End Mass Incarceration?
By Nick Pinto, Rolling Stone
27 October 15
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle agree that Draconian mandatory-minimum sentences have to go — so why is it so hard to pass a bill that will actually make a difference?
n October 6th, news reports heralded a historic development: The world's largest incarcerator, the United States of America, was about to make the largest one-time release of prisoners in its history. The U.S. Justice Department announced that it would be releasing some 6,000 inmates from federal prisons before the end of their original sentences. It's the first wave of an even larger number of early releases — more than 13,000 in total. The news was trumpeted as further evidence that after decades of mandatory-minimum sentences, the pendulum of public policy has finally begun to swing back the other way.
But though the news was much hyped in the press, a close look shows just how difficult substantial change in sentencing policy continues to be. For one thing, the announced releases represent a fraction of the more than 205,000 people in federal prison. And federal prisons are just the tip of the iceberg — factor in state prisons and local jails, and there are 2.2 million people locked up in this country. Moreover, the prisoners released in November won't owe their freedom to Congress or to President Obama. The largest prisoner release in U.S. history came instead from an organ of government little known outside of criminal-justice policy circles: the U.S. Sentencing Commission. Composed of seven commissioners, appointed by the president and confirmed by Congress, the commission is charged with setting and adjusting the detailed schedule of penalties for those convicted of federal crimes.
In April 2014, the commission approved a reduction in sentences for certain drug crimes going forward. "This modest reduction in drug penalties is an important step toward reducing the problem of prison overcrowding at the federal level," said Judge Patti B. Saris, the commission's chair. "Reducing the federal-prison population has become urgent." In July, the commission voted to make those reductions retroactive as well. Prisoners who would have received the lower sentences were eligible to petition judges for early release. Of the more than 17,000 inmates who submitted petitions, a quarter were rejected over fears for public safety.
That the greatest release of federal prisoners in history emanated from a policy tweak by an obscure administrative body says something about just how absent elected officials with far more sweeping powers have been from the reform process. In his final months in office, President Obama has focused more on the need for criminal-justice reform. In the summer, he became the first sitting president to visit a federal prison, and he has used the executive power of clemency to commute some of the most egregiously unfair sentences of 89 federal drug convicts. Under Attorney General Eric Holder, the Justice Department began telling prosecutors that their mandate is not to hit every defendant with the heaviest penalty they can, but rather to seek a nuanced and individualized justice.
But a handful of pardons don't amount to much when there are hundreds of thousands of federal prisoners, and an attorney general's directive for prosecutors to show a modicum of restraint isn't guaranteed to outlast this administration. "All roads to meaningful sentencing reform pass through Congress," says Julie Stewart, president and founder of Families Against Mandatory Minimums. "If there's going to be meaningful federal-sentencing reform, it can only come from there. And until recently, Congress hasn't been interested."
For decades, beginning in the 1980s, members of Congress and senators on both sides of the aisle were very interested in federal sentencing — specifically, in making sentences longer and making it harder for judges to tailor their sentences to the case at hand. As the War on Drugs was kicking into high gear in the Eighties, Congress created a host of new mandatory-minimum penalties. By forcing judges to apply unprecedented harsh sentences, the logic went, mandatory-minimum laws would standardize punishments and offer a strong disincentive to people contemplating committing drug crimes. The rest is history: The federal-prison population swelled from 24,000 prisoners in 1980 to 219,000 in 2013. Nearly half of federal inmates are serving time for drug crimes. Of those, 60 percent were subject to mandatory minimums when they were sentenced.
In recent years, though, popular enthusiasm for the drug war has waned, the astronomical price tag of imprisoning hundreds of thousands of people has shocked even the toughest-on-crime politicians, and a reconsideration of mandatory-minimum sentences and mechanisms of mass incarceration is no longer quite the political third rail that it once was. This sea change is due largely to a shift among Republicans, led by reform-minded groups like Right on Crime and conservative luminaries like Newt Gingrich, Rand Paul and the Koch brothers. "Things that weren't possible a few years ago are suddenly seeming possible," says Stewart, of FAMM. "The reason is that people on the right are coming around."
Some conservative converts to criminal-justice reform realize that locking up so many citizens consumes a stupefying amount of taxpayer dollars. Others feel a religious call. The late Charles Colson, the former special counsel to Richard Nixon, became an evangelical Christian shortly before his own seven-month bid as one of the Watergate Seven, and afterward founded the Prison Fellowship, which touts itself as "the nation's largest outreach to prisoners." As Republican leader in the California Assembly in the 1980s, Patrick Nolan had a strict tough-on-crime position until he found himself in federal prison on corruption charges. "I went in thinking that the system made us safer by helping to change inmates," Nolan says. "I went to prison and saw they were doing very little to change the behavior of these young guys. That was a shock. What have you accomplished other than tearing apart their families, making it harder to employ them, and costing the taxpayers a lot of money?" Nolan now runs the Center for Criminal Justice Reform at the American Conservative Union Foundation, and he has been a major driver of the GOP's embrace of criminal-justice reform. "We've built a movement," he says. "The conservative grassroots care very much about this, and they're in it for the long haul."
The new bipartisan consensus now looks to be finally breaking the logjam on Capitol Hill. On the morning of October 1st, half a dozen of the most powerful Democratic and Republican senators gathered for a news conference to announce new legislation titled "The Sentencing Reform and Corrections Act of 2015." Calling it "the biggest criminal-justice reform in a generation," Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley hailed it as a true product of negotiation, containing provisions that each side disliked even as it was agreeable to all.
"The bill certainly doesn't contain everything we might have dreamed of, but there's a lot to like in it," says Jeremy Haile, federal advocacy counsel for the Sentencing Project. The bill requires that juveniles sentenced as adults be eligible for parole. It allows terminally ill and elderly inmates with no violent record to be released from prison. It mandates the Bureau of Prisons to provide inmates with programming shown to reduce recidivism. Some of the bill's biggest impacts concern sentencing reform: It reduces the "three strikes" penalty that saddled three-time drug convicts with life sentences. The bill also finally makes retroactive the reductions contained in the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, which lowered the patently racist discrepancy between crack and powder-cocaine sentences.
President Obama was clearly pleased to see the legislation and praised the bill as historic: "The broad and impressive bipartisan coalition that created the bill makes me optimistic that members on both sides of the aisle, in both houses, will continue to work together on this critical issue in the coming weeks and months and put a meaningful criminal-justice reform bill on my desk before the end of this year."
For longtime prison-reform advocates, though, the legislation leaves a lot to be desired. It does nothing to eliminate the institution of mandatory-minimum sentences, the holy grail of sentencing reform, and in fact creates new mandatory-minimum requirements for domestic violence and arms trafficking. Though legislators declined to discuss on the record details of the months-long negotiation process that produced the legislation, it's a safe bet that a major reason the Senate's bill doesn't do more is Sen. Grassley. As chair of the Judiciary Committee, Grassley was in a position to kill any legislation softening mandatory-minimum sentences, and as recently as March, he was publicly committed to doing just that. In a lengthy and emphatic speech on the floor of the Senate, Grassley condemned an earlier iteration of the legislation, decrying the "Orwellian rhetoric" of the "leniency industrial complex." As long as Grassley was Judiciary chair, it seemed, sentencing reform was dead in the water.
But something happened between March and October: Grassley found that his inflexible tough-on-crime posture wasn't playing as well with his constituents as it used to. In April, 130 faith leaders from Grassley's home state of Iowa wrote an open letter to the senator, urging him to reconsider. Just over a week later, an ecumenical trio of Iowa bishops blasted the policy in the pages of The Des Moines Register, and soon after, the paper's editorial board piled on. "This nation's war on drugs focused on criminal punishment instead of treatment [and] has been a complete failure," the board wrote. "At long last there is growing support for changing that. Iowa's senior senator should not stand in the way."
Grassley tells Rolling Stone that he was brought around by studying the experience of states that have embraced prison reforms and seeing that they haven't suffered for doing so. "I've learned from what some states have done, changes could be made and money could be saved and not hurt society with people that do harm coming from behind bars," he says. But Grassley concedes that there was another reason he realized he had to get involved in the process — to keep more dramatic mandatory-minimum reform from carrying the day: "I saw the possibility that mandatory minimums could be cut in half. I thought that was going to be bad. Everything was on the table, but I was against a 50 percent across-the-board reduction."
The negotiations, which had begun last fall, ramped up with Grassley's participation in March. "We had to sit down and start walking through what we were trying to achieve and what he was comfortable with," Sen. Dick Durbin, the Illinois Democrat who was a driving force behind the legislation, tells RS. "It took a year."
The Senate bill may represent progress, but of course the mere fact of its introduction guarantees nothing. The backing of leaders from both parties would seem to assure that the bill will get out of the Judiciary Committee and to a vote in the Senate this fall without getting cut to ribbons, larded up with extraneous additions or sabotaged with poison-pill amendments. The hard-fought negotiations behind the legislation have produced something approaching unicorn status on Capitol Hill: a substantial bill with bipartisan support. "The fact that they were able to come together and produce a bipartisan bill is a huge development," says Nancy La Vigne, of the Urban Institute's Justice Policy Center. The senators know they're sitting on a rare piece of evidence that the American legislature might not be wholly and irremediably broken.
But the Senate is the easy part. It's in the U.S. House, the seething, clotted epicenter of government dysfunction, that sentencing reform will face its real test. Until recently, the passage of sentencing-reform legislation has been blocked by a GOP Judiciary chairman, Bob Goodlatte of Virginia. "We shouldn't jump to conclusions about what is right and what is wrong with [mandatory-minimum drug sentences] yet," Goodlatte said on C-Span last year.
Last June, when the political odd couple of Virginia Democrat Bobby Scott and Wisconsin Republican Jim Sensenbrenner brought forward the SAFE Justice Act, a sprawling reform bill that explicitly reserved mandatory-minimum drug sentences for kingpins, Goodlatte opposed it. But with his own committee sponsoring legislation without his approval, and Speaker John Boehner announcing his support of the bill, pressure was mounting on Goodlatte to do something. (Goodlatte's office declined interview requests.) Leading into the summer recess, Goodlatte promised that he and ranking Democrat John Conyers would present their own bipartisan criminal-justice reform bill when Congress reconvened in September. But the month came and went, and no legislation emerged. It was only after the Senate unveiled its bill that Goodlatte and Conyers hurriedly announced that they were putting forward companion legislation — effectively identical to the Senate's.
With the recent chaos in House leadership, the bill's fate is uncertain. "Guessing how House Republicans are going to act is extremely difficult," says Danyelle Solomon, of the Brennan Center for Justice. "It depends on who their next speaker is, and what their priorities are going to be before we can discuss how this moves forward."
Unfortunately, time isn't a resource in great abundance for the passage of a sentencing-reform bill. Next year is a federal election year, and it's only a matter of months before that process sucks all the air out of Washington. "If we're going to get enactment before the election grinds everything else to a halt, it's going to have to be the House acting on the Senate bill before the year is out," predicts Haile, of the Sentencing Project.
With all of the negotiation and speculation at the policy level, it's easy to forget the real lives that are at stake here. Stephanie George was a 26-year-old mother of three when she was convicted on drug-conspiracy charges because the man she was dating had kept drugs and money in her house. George had previously pleaded guilty to state charges that she'd sold $160 worth of cocaine to a police informant, so under the federal three-strikes-and-you're-out law, she was sentenced to life in prison. George was locked up nearly 18 years before Obama commuted her sentence, along with a handful of other nonviolent drug offenders. One of her sons died shortly before her release. Out for more than a year now, George is still struggling to find a good job, to reconnect with her remaining children and to rebuild her life. She says she doesn't think most politicians consider the costs a mandatory-minimum sentence brings, the widening circles of suffering and loss that ripple out from a case like hers.
"I would definitely tell them that they need to do away with the mandatory-minimum," she says. "I don't think they're thinking about the damage that this does to the kids and to the family. Not everyone who has made a mistake needs to have a life sentence."
For the tens of thousands of federal prisoners spending decades of their lives behind bars on a mandatory-minimum sentence, the stakes for meaningful reform could not be higher. And even if the legislation does pass before the end of the year, advocates say, it's only a beginning. "This is a first step," says Molly Gill, government affairs counsel of FAMM. "We still will have mandatory-minimums. Unless we significantly reduce the number of drug prosecutions, the math is inevitable: Over time, we're going to keep filling up our prisons."
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