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The Great Fukushima Cover-Up Print
Wednesday, 24 February 2016 09:38

Gunter writes: "March 11, 2011 might have been the day the Great East Japan Earthquake struck. But it was also the beginning of the Great Japan Cover-Up."

A worker in a protective suit at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. (photo: Toru Hanai/AP)
A worker in a protective suit at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. (photo: Toru Hanai/AP)


The Great Fukushima Cover-Up

By Linda Pentz Gunter, CounterPunch

24 February 16

 

r. Tetsunari Iida is the founder and executive director of the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) in Japan. As such, one might have expected a recent presentation he gave in the UK within the hallowed halls of the House of Commons, to have focused on Japan’s capacity to replace the electricity once generated by its now mainly shuttered nuclear power plants, with renewable energy.

But Dr lida’s passionate polemic was not about the power of the sun, but the power of propaganda. March 11, 2011 might have been the day the Great East Japan Earthquake struck. But it was also the beginning of the Great Japan Cover-Up.

On the ISEP website, Iida extols the coming of the Fourth Revolution, following on from those in agriculture, industry and IT. “This fourth revolution will be an energy revolution, a green industrial revolution, and a decentralized network revolution”, he writes.

But in person, Iida was most interested in conveying the extent to which the Japanese people were lied to before, during and after the devastating nuclear disaster at Fukushima-Daiichi, precipitated on that same fateful day and by the deadly duo of earthquake and tsunami.

“Shinzo Abe says ‘everything is under control'”, said Iida, speaking at an event hosted by Nuclear Free Local Authorities, Green Cross, and Nuclear Consulting Group in late January. It was headlined by the former Japan Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, who was at the helm when the triple disasters struck. “Yes – under the control of the media!”

A trial for Tepco like post-war Tokyo Trials

The media may have played the willing government handmaiden in reassuring the public with falsehoods, but in July 2012, the Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission concluded that the disaster was really no accident but “man-made“. It came about, the researchers said, as a result of “collusion” between the government, regulators and the nuclear industry, in this case, Tepco.

“There should be a Tepco trial like the post-war Tokyo Trials”, Iida said, referring to the post World War II war crimes trial in which 28 Japanese were tried, seven of whom were subsequently executed by hanging.

Hope for such accountability – without advocating hanging – is fleeting at best. In 2011, while addressing a conference in Berlin hosted by the Heinrich Böll Foundation, I suggested the Tepco officials should be sent to the International Criminal Court at The Hague, (a body the US still conveniently refuses to recognize) to answer for what clearly amounts to crimes against humanity.

The remark caused a bit of a stir and earnest questions about the mechanism by which Tepco could be brought there. Needless to say, nothing of the kind ever happened, or is likely to.

Instead, the Abe’s government’s preferred tactic is to go full out to restart reactors and move everybody back home as soon as possible, as if nothing serious had happened. Just scoop off a little topsoil, cart it away somewhere else and, Abracadabra! Everything is clean and safe again!

Normalizing radiation, a policy and now a practice

Of course radiological decontamination is not that easy. Nor is it reliable. It is more like “pushing contamination from one spot to the next”, as independent nuclear expert, Mycle Schneider describes it. And radiation does not remain obediently in one place, either.

“The mountains and forests that cannot even be vaguely decontaminated, will serve as a permanent source of new contamination, each rainfall washing out radiation and bringing it down from the mountains to the flat lands”, Schneider explained. Birds move around. Animals eat and excrete radioactive plant life. Radiation gets swept out to sea. It is a cycle with no end.

Nevertheless, efforts are underway to repopulate stricken areas, particularly in Fukushima Prefecture. It’s a policy, and now a practice, of ‘normalizing’ radiation standards, to tell people that everything is alright, when clearly, there is no medical or scientific evidence to support this. And it was an approach already firmly and institutionally in place, even on March 11, 2011 as the Fukushima disaster first struck and much of the decision-making was left to individual judgement.

“We were told that evacuating poses a greater risk than radiation,” recalls Hasegawa Kenji, a farmer from Iitate, a village situated 45 kilometers from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Featured in the Vice documentary ‘Alone In The Zone‘, Hasegawa criticized Iitate’s mayor for making what he called a terrible mistake.

“Even when the scientists told the mayor that Iitate was dangerous, he ignored them all. He brought in experts from around the country who preached about how safe it was here. They said we had nothing to worry about. They kept telling us that. Eventually the villagers fell for it and began to relax. And the mayor rejected the idea of evacuating even more. That’s why nobody left, even though the radiation levels were so high.”

The nuclear industry did not tell the public the truth

The confusion surrounding evacuation was so profound that, as Zhang et al. noted in a September 11, 2014 study published in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health: “Unclear evacuation instructions caused numerous residents to flee to the northwestern zone where radiation levels were even higher.”

All par for the course, said Iida. “I must emphasize, the people in the nuclear industry did not tell the public the truth and keep us informed.”

Next in the ‘normalization’ process came the decision to raise allowable radiation exposure standards to 20 millisieverts of radiation a year, up from the prior level of 2 mSv a year. The globally-accepted limit for radiation absorption is 1 mSv a year.

This meant that children were potentially being exposed to the same levels of radiation that are permitted for adult nuclear power plant workers in Europe. Some officials even argued that zones where rates were as high as 100 mSv a year should be considered ‘safe’. Writing on his blog, anti-pollution New Orleans-based attorney, Stuart Smith, observed wryly:

“Instead of taking corrective measures to protect its people, Japan has simply increased internationally recognized exposure limits. It seems that the priority – as we’ve seen in so many other industrial disasters in so many other countries – is to protect industry and limit its liability rather than to ensure the long-term health and well being of the masses. Go figure.”

The great repatriation lie

All of this set the perfect stage for the Great Repatriation Lie. “It’s the big cover-up,” Iida told his Westminster audience. “People are being told it’s quite safe to have a little [radiation] exposure.”

Indeed, at a recent conferences of prefectural governors, young people in particular were urged to return to Fukushima. “If you come to live with us in Fukushima and work there, that will facilitate its post-disaster reconstruction and help you lead a meaningful life”, said Fukushima Gov. Masao Uchibori.

Young people in Japan, however, appear not to be cooperating. Where evacuees are returning, the majority are senior citizens, who have less to lose from a health perspective and are more traditionally tied to the land and their ancestral burial grounds.

“They want to die where they were born and not in an unfamiliar place”, said Yoshiko Aoki, an evacuee herself who now works with others, and who also spoke at the London conference.

All of this impacts revenue from the inhabitants’ tax which constitutes 24.3% of all local tax sources and is collected by both prefectures and municipalities. It is levied on both individuals and corporations but with the bulk of revenue coming from individuals.

Senior citizens who have retired do not contribute to income tax, so the onus is on governors and mayors to lure as many working people as possible back to their towns and regions in order to effectively finance local public services.

Radioactive areas are hardest hit economically

Late last year, the Asahi Shimbun looked at tax revenues in the 42 municipalities affected by the triple 2011 disasters of earthquake, tsunami and the Fukushima meltdowns.

Unsurprisingly, the areas hardest hit by radiological contamination had suffered the biggest economic blows. Those areas free from radioactive fallout could simply rebuild after the tsunami and earthquake, and had consequently recovered economically, some even to better than pre-3/11 levels.

“On the other end of the scale, Namie, Fukushima Prefecture, marked the biggest decreasing rate – 72.9 percent – in tax revenues for fiscal 2014”, the Asahi Shimbun reported. “All residents of the town near the crippled nuclear plant remain in evacuation. Although tax payments from companies increased from decontamination work and other public works projects, income taxes paid by residents and fixed asset taxes have declined.”

To return or not to return is the question of the hour – or it will be come March 2017, when the Abe government has announced it will revoke many evacuation orders. At that point, government compensation to evacuees would be lifted, putting them under financial pressure to return. Cue more confusion.

People are confronted, said Iida, with “two extreme views, either that it’s very dangerous or quite safe. So it’s very difficult to decide which is the truth and it has been left up to individuals.”

One of those towns that could be declared ‘safe’ is Tomioka, Japan’s Pripyat, formerly home to close to 16,000 people but now uninhabited.

“It’s like a human experiment, that’s how we feel,” said Aoki in London, herself a former Tomioka resident. “The Governor of Fukushima spoke about a safe Fukushima. We want it to become safe, but our thoughts and reality are not one and the same.”

Observes Kyoto University professor of nuclear physics, Koide Hiroaki, in the Vice film, who has been outspoken for decades against the continued use of nuclear energy:

“Once you enter a radiation controlled area, you aren’t supposed to drink water, let alone eat anything. The idea that somebody”, he pauses, ” … is living in a place like that is unimaginable.”

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In Defense of Political Correctness Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=36573"><span class="small">Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, The Washington Post</span></a>   
Tuesday, 23 February 2016 15:37

Abdul-Jabbar writes: "America faces a life-threatening illness even more deadly than the Zika or Ebola viruses: 'Political correctness is killing our country,' Donald Trump warned on the 'Today' show last month. Ben Carson told Bill O'Reilly last summer, when he was the leading Republican presidential candidate, that political correctness was 'destroying our nation.'"

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. (photo: Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images)
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. (photo: Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty Images)


In Defense of Political Correctness

By Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, The Washington Post

23 February 16

 

Yes, it sometimes sounds silly. But we need more sensitivity, not less.

merica faces a life-threatening illness even more deadly than the Zika or Ebola viruses: “Political correctness is killing our country,” Donald Trump warned on the “Today” show last month. Ben Carson told Bill O’Reilly last summer, when he was the leading Republican presidential candidate, that political correctness was “destroying our nation.” Ted Cruz criticized President Obama’s ISIS strategy by claiming “political correctness is killing people.” Carly Fiorina said, “Political correctness is now choking candid conversation.” Marco Rubio complained that he doesn’t discuss his faith in public was because “I had been conditioned by political correctness.” Jeb Bush agreed: “The political correctness of our country needs to be shattered.”

Despite the uninhibited insults they’ve hurled at each other for the past couple months (Bush called Trump “unhinged”; Trump called Cruz “the definition of sleaze”; Rubio called Cruz a liar), the candidates who have sought the GOP nomination this year seem to agree that soft-pedaling our rhetoric is a mortal danger to the country. And a majority of Americans are with them: A Rasmussen Reports poll found that 79 percent of American adults think political correctness is a serious problem in the United States, with 58 percent believing that the country has become too politically correct. Of those who believe we’re being too careful, 74 percent of Republicans, 66 percent of those not affiliated with a major political party and 35 percent of Democrats concur. Only 18 percent think we aren’t politically correct enough.

This is nonsense. Although the extremes of political correctness can sometimes be absurd, America needs this trend to help it fulfill the spirit of the Constitution. Our country was founded on principles of inclusion, which means acting compassionately toward the many different people who make up our nation. Almost every group who immigrated to America was at one time the outsider — mistreated, abused and taunted. Maturity means not having to relive our mistakes of the past, but learning from them and doing better. Our country needs more sensitivity, not less.

The apocalyptic backlash against a benign combination of good old-fashioned manners and simple sensitivity toward others is easy to understand: Many Americans feel growing rage, fear and frustration as the country continues to evolve into something different than what they are used to. Plus, new technology accelerates cultural change, and the erosion of familiar and comforting traditions leaves us uncertain and uncomfortable. Every generation mourns the loss of the good old days, and the perception of change isn’t entirely imagined. For instance, in 1960, 73 percent of children age 18 and under lived in a home with two heterosexual parents in their first marriage. Now only 46 percent do. The country is 62 percent white today; whites will be a minority by 2043.

It’s true that efforts to show sensitivity and inclusiveness can go too far. It’s especially striking on campus: A survey at Yale University found 63 percent of students wanting professors to issue “trigger warnings” before saying anything that someone might find offensive or traumatic. Critics say the “microaggression movement” coddles students who should expect to be challenged to better prepare them for the real world outside. And students did seem coddled when 25 of them staged a UCLA sit-in because a professor corrected spelling and grammar errors on graduate-level essays. (They accused him of creating a “hostile campus climate” for students of color.) University of New Hampshire students received a list of resources to help them avoid offensive language such as “American” (because it suggests the United States is the only country in the Americas), homosexual (should be “same gender loving”), elderly (“people of advanced age”) and healthy (“non-disabled”). Jerry Seinfeld and Chris Rock say they won’t play college campuses anymore because the climate is so restrictive. Bill Maher claims that “political correctness Nazis” “hound me to censor every joke and apologize for every single slight.”

Outside the academy, some Americans have bridled at movements to replace “Merry Christmas” with “Happy Holidays,” which seems to them a sinister attempt to restrict religious expression rather than a way to include non-Christians in the holiday spirit.

Here’s the problem with these attacks, though: Every political and social policy or tradition has examples of excess. We don’t define the value of a policy based on its most extreme manifestations. We can point to the absurd behavior of zealots around all of our most cherished values. We poke fun at helicopter parents for being overprotective, but we don’t erase safety laws and regulations that protect children.

A fairer critique would ask whether political correctness had solved the problem it was devised to address: Has it scrubbed away American prejudices? Certainly not yet, and of course it’s impossible to tell whether political correctness is even helping to diminish these, given how many other factors can influence behavior. But the task is worthy and vast: to erase centuries of bias in our country’s collective unconscious — and one way to do that is with language. For the same reason we no longer use terms that came to seem pejorative (Negro, colored, chick, bitch), we should eschew phrases tinged with hate (fag, cripple, retard) from our vocabulary.

There is some evidence that this works. Research at Cornell University concluded that political correctness may aid the creativity of mixed-sex work teams by “reducing the uncertainty that people tend to experience while interacting with the opposite sex,” according to associate professor of organizational behavior Jack Goncalo. “[E]stablishing a clear guideline for how to behave appropriately in mixed-sex groups made both men and women more comfortable sharing their creative ideas,” he said.

Even on a purely anecdotal level, we can look around and see younger generations growing up to be more aware of instances of discrimination based on gender, race, religion, or gender identity and not accepting them. Armed with this awareness, young people are less likely to accept bullying or exploitation simply because it’s endorsed by a social code. (“Glee,” “Modern Family” and Macklemore’s “Same Love” are a few examples of pop-culture pushback.) They will be more self-reliant, stronger and more tolerant of others. Better Americans.

PC’s opponents point to its most extreme examples to argue for doing exactly what we did before political correctness showed us the racism, misogyny and homophobia embedded in our language: Nothing. Deriding political correctness gives people permission not to fix a problem, because the real problem, they tell us, is the cure. This is the logic of vaccination deniers and climate-change skeptics. Or all those hard-core smokers back in the 1960s and ’70s who laughed at the warning labels about the damage cigarette smoking could do. They accused the government of being a scold and boosted cigarette sales by over 7.8 billion in 1966, the year the labels first appeared on cigarette packs. Arrogantly clinging to wrong-headed traditions is not good for the country.

At a February rally, Donald Trump repeated with mock shock what a woman in the audience had just shouted about Ted Cruz: “She said, ‘He’s a pussy.’ That’s terrible!” The audience shouted their approval, even as Trump grinned and pretended to be offended. But there are serious consequences to insulting someone by calling him or her a vagina. It furthers the association of women with weakness. Every time we laugh at this suggestion, we’re endorsing the narrative of women as less than men. Every time a male coach berates his players by referring to them as “ladies” or tells them to “hike their skirts” while playing, we’re perpetuating an atmosphere in which women are not men’s equals.

Anti-political-correctness rhetoric serves as a clever tool for politicians who wish to distract voters from the real issues (and their lack of solutions) by tapping into their darkest fears about those who are different than themselves. It’s genius — as long as those they’re manipulating are too zombified to think for themselves.

Which is exactly what they want. They want you to feel and behave like children while they pretend to be the all-knowing benevolent father. While they rile you up about how immigrants are stealing your jobs, they distract you from the expert assessments that show how Latino immigration has had less effect on employment than factories that moved abroad, weakened labor unions and recurring recessions. So while we’re told to focus on building a massive wall to keep out immigrants, the real architects of job loss and economic instability continue unaffected.

We’re better off taking back the reins of our future by following the suggestion of 1 Corinthians 13:11: “When I was a child, I talked like a child, I thought like a child, I reasoned like a child. When I became a man, I put the ways of childhood behind me.”

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FOCUS: Why the Deafening Silence on Cutting the Military Budget? Print
Tuesday, 23 February 2016 13:12

Excerpt: "Bernie Sanders' common sense proposals for dealing with universal health care, college tuition, restoring the infrastructure, confronting poverty and more have encountered predictable scorn from 'fiscally responsible' corporatists. But nowhere do we find anyone willing to take on the biggest imperial welfare program of them all, the most obvious source of revenue for the programs needed to heal our nation: the military budget."

Bernie Sanders. (photo: Charlie Leight/Getty Images)
Bernie Sanders. (photo: Charlie Leight/Getty Images)


Why the Deafening Silence on Cutting the Military Budget?

By Harvey Wasserman, David Swanson and Bob Fitrakis, Reader Supported News

23 February 16

 

Watch Amy Goodman interview Harvey Wasserman on Democracy Now!

ernie Sanders’ common sense proposals for dealing with universal health care, college tuition, restoring the infrastructure, confronting poverty and more have encountered predictable scorn from “fiscally responsible” corporatists.

They all scream about the “deficit spending” and tax hikes that might be required to pay for these vital programs. From predictable right-wing corporatists to Hillary Clinton (“free stuff! free stuff!” she mocks) to fictional “left-leaning economists” invented by the New York Times, numerous voices scorn Bernie’s agenda because his proposals “cost too much.”

But nowhere do we find anyone willing to take on the biggest imperial welfare program of them all, the most obvious source of revenue for the programs needed to heal our nation: the military budget. If Sanders were willing to cut the military budget he’d encounter no criticism for raising taxes, because he’d have no need to raise taxes.  We hope that he’ll no longer pass up this opportunity to tell us how he would cut into a military budget that exceeds nearly all the rest of the world’s combined, and that largely has nothing to do with fighting terrorism (and so often makes it worse).

It’s not that Bernie doesn’t have a good answer for how he would pay for everything. He does, and it’s plenty clear and simple for an intelligent fourth grader, and possibly even Donald Trump, to grasp. But just try squeezing the following into a sound byte television response to “You want to raise my taxes!”

Bernie Sanders economic proposal. (photo: Worldbeyondwar.org)
Bernie Sanders economic proposal. (photo: Worldbeyondwar.org)

Even this lengthy list does not seem to straightforwardly explain that Medicare for All could raise your taxes, but would give you net savings as you dropped your health insurance payments.

For those who can get past sound bytes, Sanders’ proposals are good, and the taxes all needed for the sake of equitable sharing of wealth and power. But cutting the oceans of cash going to the armed forces is also needed for the purpose of slowing down the military industrial complex and its penchant for creating wars.

And there are projects that the United States and the world desperately need that aren’t listed above. Rather than more wars and occupations, the United States has a moral responsibility to begin a massive investment in actual humanitarian aid to the world, a world beginning to suffer from climate change driven more by the United States than any other nation, with the possible exception of the much, much larger nation of China.

The United States is currently extremely stingy in foreign aid by global standards, and a Marshall-Plan scale investment could work wonders in transforming world opinion about the U.S. government. A similar investment, much more than $100 billion per year, is needed in the United States for green energy. The possibility of creating a Solartopia is slipping away from us, while the cost of the Iraq war alone would have been enough to halt climate change.

Here are some simple, obvious ways to pay for all those programs Bernie advocates, and much much more:

  • There are various plans afoot to “upgrade” the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal, with price tags in the range of $1,000,000,000,000 and more. Why don’t we just get rid of all of them and use the money to pay for much of the above?

  • There is talk of a replacement fleet of a dozen “Ohio Class” nuclear submarines at a (currently estimated) cost of up to $8,000,000,000 each (which is bound to soar), with construction to begin in 2021. These are perfectly designed to protect us from the Soviet Union, which no longer exists, and will do nothing except bankrupt us, making us more vulnerable to the likes of ISIS, which was created by our intervention in Iraq.

  • The United States currently maintains at least 900 bases outside its borders, with troops stationed in 175 foreign nations and waging or threating war in some of the handful of nations that do not have U.S. troops (Syria, Iran). The financial cost is over $100 billion a year. The bases, in many cases, generate an enormous amount of popular resentment and hatred, serving as motivations for attacks on the bases themselves or elsewhere — famously including the attacks of September 11, 2001. Why continue to pay for this?

  • The military spends millions every year advertising itself as a career opportunity, with fly-overs at football games, saturation TV spots, marching bands (the military is the nation’s leading employer of musicians) and more. In fact, it has an entrenched interest in keeping college tuitions high, as a key incentive for young people to enlist is to be able to afford tuition. Yet while the armed forces are heavily over-staffed, and recruitment ads for the National Guard depict the bringing of aid to natural disasters, the reality is that a major effort to aid those at home and abroad impacted by climate change or disasters like the methane gas leak at Port Ranch, California, doesn’t exist and would be a prime step toward guaranteeing a true global peace.

If the military were scaled back even a little, in the direction of a purely defensive operation, we could create such a modern civilian conservation corps and, among other things, put solar panels on the rooftops of every building on earth.

There is, of course, much more that could be done to cut the military budget and pay for what we really need.  The vast bulk of military expenditures today have nothing to do with fighting terrorism. In many cases, the clumsy bludgeonings of our over-stuffed military actually promote it.

Yet this kind of discussion has not yet made it into the mainstream. We look forward to either journalists or brave nonviolent event disruptors inserting this topic into the endless election coverage.



Originally published on World Beyond War.

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FOCUS: Wake Up, South Carolina! Print
Tuesday, 23 February 2016 11:46

Lee says: "Bernie takes no money from corporations. Nada. Which means he's not on the take, and when Bernie gets in the White House, he will do the right thing!"

Spike Lee. (photo: Hilary Bronwyn Gayle/Chicago Tribune)
Spike Lee. (photo: Hilary Bronwyn Gayle/Chicago Tribune)


Wake Up, South Carolina!

By Spike Lee, Reader Supported News

23 February 16

 

aaaaake up! Wake up, South Carolina! This is your dude, Spike Lee. And I know that you know the system is rigged! For too long we’ve given our votes to corporate puppets. Sold the okie doke. Ninety-nine percent of Americans were hurt by the Great Recession of 2008, and many are still recovering.

And that’s why I’m officially endorsing my brother, Bernie Sanders. Bernie takes no money from corporations. Nada. Which means he’s not on the take, and when Bernie gets in the White House, he will do the right thing!

How can we be sure? Bernie was at the March on Washington with Dr. King. He was arrested in Chicago for protesting segregation in public schools. He fought for wealth and education equality throughout his whole career.

No flipping, no flopping. Enough talk. Time for action.


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The GOP Is Still in Denial About Donald Trump - and Ted Cruz, Too Print
Written by <a href="index.php?option=com_comprofiler&task=userProfile&user=6853"><span class="small">Frank Rich, New York Magazine</span></a>   
Tuesday, 23 February 2016 09:18

Rich writes: "After Donald Trump's victory in South Carolina, the GOP Establishment is left with what some political reporters have called 'an urgent decision: Either destroy Mr. Trump or embrace him.' At this point, which is the bigger challenge?"

Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz stand on stage during the CNN presidential debate at The Venetian Las Vegas, December 15, 2015. (photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz stand on stage during the CNN presidential debate at The Venetian Las Vegas, December 15, 2015. (photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images)


The GOP Is Still in Denial About Donald Trump - and Ted Cruz, Too

By Frank Rich, New York Magazine

23 February 16

 

Most weeks, New York Magazine writer-at-large Frank Rich speaks with contributor Alex Carp about the biggest stories in politics and culture. This week: Trump's victory in South Carolina, Jeb Bush's exit, and the results of the Nevada Democratic caucus.

After Donald Trump’s victory in South Carolina, the GOP Establishment is left with what some political reporters have called "an urgent decision: Either destroy Mr. Trump or embrace him." At this point, which is the bigger challenge?

Far and away the Establishment’s bigger challenge is to destroy Trump. In the aftermath of South Carolina, that seems less likely than ever, and the magical thinking of the stop-Trump forces reeks of desperation.

The conventional wisdom about taking him down can be found, as usual, in the Times Upshot column, which has segued from its early predictions of Trump’s rapid demise to the scenario by which he will be vanquished by Marco Rubio. Under its theory of the case, as outlined after the South Carolina results came in, “it is hard to overstate how important Mr. Bush’s departure is to Mr. Rubio” because Bush’s exit will bring “a flood of endorsements and donations” to Rubio. And better still, Trump will soon lose his advantage of running against a divided Republican field. Really?

If we’ve learned anything from the Trump ascendancy — and to some extent from the Bernie Sanders movement — it’s that in 2016 neither endorsements nor big-donor money mean what they once did. Trump has had neither of these assets, and Bush had both, and we see how that turned out. Jeb’s “shock and awe” political campaign was no more successful at vanquishing his adversaries in a presidential election than his brother’s “shock and awe” bombing campaign succeeded in pacifying Iraq. Why would a new deployment of big-name endorsements and big-ticket donations work better for Rubio than Jeb? Rubio had the most prized endorsement in South Carolina, the one Jeb most wanted, the governor, Nikki Haley, yet neither Haley’s vocal support (nor that of two other popular South Carolina Republicans, Senator Tim Scott and Representative Trey Gowdy) could elevate him above a (barely) second-place showing, 10 percentage points behind the front-runner.  

And while Bush may be gone, Trump is still running against a divided field. Anyone who thinks Ted Cruz is going to get out any time soon is in denial. This is a guy who shut down the government despite the pleading of his own fellow Republicans in the Senate and who indeed basks in the hatred of his peers in the GOP. He has the fattest war chest in the race, and he’s certainly not going to back down now. Kasich also has an incentive to stay in, at least until his home state of Ohio holds its primary on March 15. And Carson — well, he is on record saying this race is just finishing its first inning. Even in the unlikely event any of them were to drop out soon, the assumption that their votes would automatically go to Rubio is, as Trump himself has said, highly dubious. As the South Carolina exit polls showed, Trump had far and away the broadest base of support in the Republican electorate in South Carolina, which as much as any is representative of the national GOP voting pool. It’s entirely possible that he would pick up a decent share of Cruz and Carson voters and even some Bush and Kasich voters if any of them were to depart. The Times is reporting that even some big Bush donors are already flirting with shifting to Trump.

Other theories of how Trump might be vanquished are equally suspect. Much is made of the fact that he has a ceiling in his appeal among Republicans, since he wins or places in primaries with pluralities that are well under 40 percent against that divided field. But the same might have been said of Mitt Romney when he faced a divided field four years ago. In Iowa, Romney got 24.6 percent of the caucus vote; Trump got 24.3 percent. In New Hampshire, Romney slightly outperformed Trump — 39.3 percent versus 35.3 percent — but New Hampshire was a state where Romney had a home. In South Carolina, Trump’s 32.5 percent well exceeded Romney, who received 27.8 percent of the vote and lost to Newt Gingrich.

The conviction in some quarters that Rubio can somehow overcome all this and save the GOP from Trump remains a mystery to me. On paper, it’s easy to see why Rubio is the only contender with a real shot at beating Trump: The numbers show that he draws his support from a wider swath of the party than Cruz and the other non-Trumps do. But that’s only on paper. As Trump might say, winning requires actual winning. Rubio has yet to win a primary (though he may hold the record for making victory speeches after primary defeats). He has yet to dominate a debate (except by melting down in one). He has yet to reveal any substance beyond glib sound bites and empty boasts of foreign-policy experience. If he can be bullied into incoherence by Chris Christie, why should anyone expect him to be more successful in facing down the full artillery fire of Trump? It’s telling that when Rubio arrived at the site of the next Republican contest, Nevada, Sunday night, he didn’t “mention or refer to front-runner Donald Trump even once” in a 34-minute stump speech, according to the political reporter of The Wall Street Journal, Reid J. Epstein. One can already imagine the excruciating debate moments when Trump repeatedly hits Rubio on his propensity for sweating, much as he clobbered Bush on his “low energy.”

It’s hard to imagine how Rubio can turn this around in a timely fashion. He’s almost certain to lose to Trump in Nevada on Tuesday, despite the fact that Rubio lived there as a child. And, according to David Lightman of McClatchy, Rubio is ahead in the polls in only one of the 11 Super Tuesday states voting on March 1. The clock is ticking fast. By the end of March 15, when Rubio’s home state of Florida votes, about 60 percent of the GOP delegates will have been awarded. Florida is also a Trump home state, one might add, and that could be Rubio’s Waterloo.

Obviously more than a few Republican hands have their own doubts about Rubio’s supposed path to victory, which is why Rudy Giuliani, Bob Dole, and the like have been toying with embracing Trump. The latest example of such a surrender is the longtime Bush family hand Nicolle Wallace. On MSNBC Saturday night, she called Trump “political chemo” for her party because “he is the only cure for the cancer” of the “Washington Establishment.” If Wallace, once George W. Bush’s White House communications director, is sidling up to Trump now that Jeb is gone, and incongruously trash-talking the very Washington Establishment of which she’s an archetypal example, it’s safe to assume that others in her camp are getting ready to jump on the Trump bandwagon as well, however opportunistically or cynically.

Jeb Bush's campaign was predicated on a grave misreading by the Republican Establishment of what party voters would want. Hardly had Bush left the race before reports began to circulate of a Mitt Romney endorsement for Rubio. Would the endorsement of an Establishment figure like Romney bring Rubio any voters who aren't already in his camp?

The answer is no, but I’d argue further that a Romney endorsement, should it happen, is a negative for Rubio. Republican primary voters look at Mitt and they see a squishy moderate who is everything they despise about Jeb (we can retire the exclamation point now) — and more: a Wall Street plutocrat who lost what the party’s base saw as an easy race against President Obama. Both Cruz and Trump will chomp at the bit to use a Romney endorsement to throw Rubio on the defensive at the next debate. And how long will it take for Trump to put up a commercial showing the Romneys kissing his ring in Vegas when Mitt came calling for his endorsement in 2012? Trump would have as much fun with this as he did with the Clintons’ command appearance at his last wedding.

Some observers are attributing Bernie Sanders's loss in Nevada to his inability to tailor his message for the first caucus state with a strong minority population and a mix of urban and rural areas. Will we see him begin to alter his approach and try to expand his support?

In the final countdown to the Nevada vote, Sanders was already trying to expand his support — both by highlighting his own history with the civil-rights movement and addressing specific issues of high priority to African-Americans and Hispanics in the Democratic base. Without significant breakthroughs in those constituencies, who account for ever-larger swaths of the electorate in the primary states to come, there’s no way he can derail Hillary Clinton. Sanders’s Nevada loss — though not by anything like the landslide amount that Clinton forces once predicted — raises the question of whether his broadened focus might be too little, too late.

Clinton supporters are right to believe that their candidate remains the overwhelming favorite to win her party’s nomination, her New Hampshire setback notwithstanding. Her Nevada victory stanched the bleeding. But what should alarm Democrats is that the turnout at the Nevada caucuses dropped roughly a third from 2008. Democratic turnout could drop further if the devoted cadres who feel the Bern end up curbing their enthusiasm for a Hillary ticket in November. Though Hillary Clinton is in every way a superior candidate to Jeb Bush, she shares with him an inability to articulate a central message that will make her campaign a clarion call to the future rather than a nostalgia tour of her party’s past. 


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