Excerpt: "How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast."
Voters at a polling precinct. (photo: Getty Images)
2018 House Forecast
16 October 18
ix in 7 Chance Democrats win control (85.1%) versus 1 in 7 Chance Republicans keep control (14.9%)
Our forecast for every district
The chance of each candidate winning, with all 435 House districts shown at the same size
How the forecast has changed
We'll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. 6.
How the popular vote for the House translates into seats
How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of House seats by party, according to our forecast
How the House has swung historically
Our forecasted seat breakdown in the House for 2018 and the change in the breakdown for every House election since 1924
How this forecast works
Nate Silver explains the methodology behind our 2018 midterms forecast. Read more …
The third-party candidates listed represent our best approximation of who will appear on each district’s general election ballot. The candidates listed will update as each race is finalized; some listed candidates may not ultimately qualify for the general election.
This analysis treats currently vacant seats as being held by the party that previously controlled them.
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